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Tuesday, 6 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Turning colder in stages and average will be 2 or 3 deg below normal over coming week, with potential for 25 to 50 per cent above average totals, in widespread falls of cold rain, sleet or snow. Turning warmer again around Wed 14th.
FORECASTS
TODAY will continue quite mild and rain will spread south from northern counties, lows 7 to 9 C and highs of 11 to 13 C south, as temperatures gradually fall to 3 to 6 C in northern and later in central regions, where rain could turn to sleet on higher ground later in the day. Cold front will pass Dublin and Galway near mid-day and could become squally wit gusty winds and possibly a brief thunderstorm. Temperatures will drop quickly afternoon and evening as front reaches south coast. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr until frontal passage, brief gusts to 90 km/hr, but northerly 30 to 50 km/hr afterwards.
TONIGHT will see partial clearing and it will become much colder, lows -2 to +3 C.
WEDNESDAY after a cool and dry start, lows -1 to +3 C, mid-day sunny breaks, as rain or sleet will spread in again later from southwest, highs by evening 7 to 10 C in south, but staying in a colder range of only 3 to 5 C north and central counties. Rain, sleet and snow spreading gradually north overnight into Thursday morning.
By THURSDAY bands of rain, sleet and snow will be established over all regions; guidance is beginning to converge on a solution where it stays fairly mild in the southern tier of counties, and quite cold in the inland north, also higher parts of inland west, so the potential for sleet will be high in east-central counties, and for snow in the inland west to north, in particular, inland portions of Ulster, Connacht, Clare and Tipps. Temperatures are likely to be steady around 2-4 C in many areas and 6-8 C in the south. Zones of precipitation could drift north or northwest during the day, changing the phase in various locations.
From FRIDAY to SUNDAY 11th, frequent falls of cold rain, sleet or snow are likely, with highs around 5 C (8-10 C southeast) again, details not yet entirely "carved in stone" but guidance continues fairly unified on a trend towards bands of rain, sleet and snow from south to north, with winds east-northeast 40 to 70 km/hr if not stronger. The risk of heavy snow streamers into eastern counties by Sunday appears to be lower now as guidance is suggesting low pressure will be tracking north into Scotland, swinging the winds around to northwest eventually. That could result in heavier sea effect snowfall on higher parts of north and west facing coasts.
It looks likely to remain cold but with less precipitation after about Tuesday 13th and the cold would likely moderate steadily, as some of latest guidance suggests that this warming trend could be fairly significant.
My local weather on Monday brought another small snowfall of 2-3 cms that seems to be sticking now with temperatures a bit lower (near -1 C).
EXTRA commentary posted in event thread ... with reference to the period late Wed to Fri, Sat ...
Disruptive snow seems most likely in Ulster, Connacht, Clare and Tipps, as well as higher portions of the inland southeast.
It's a forecaster's nightmare scenario of marginal uppers, and abundant moisture, persisting for days and slowly shifting around as low pressure attacks from the south and later from the east.
Taking a blended approach rather than riding any one model, I would say there is just enough cold air in place to suggest persistent snowfall over the regions I outlined, and sleet or a cold rain in areas further east or south, but would not be at all surprised if this has intervals where it shifts in either direction, so in other words, nobody should let their guard down as far as snow potential, and even so, some if not all are at risk of being disappointed as far as total snow amounts go.
The median of probabilities at this point (which is relatively short-range) is 5 to 15 cm (locally 25) of lying snow in areas roughly west of an arc running from s.central mountain ranges n.n.e. into Westmeath and then n.e. to Down. Coastal west could see a lot of mixing so that snow would only be lying on higher parts of coastal towns and most of the interior. Some possibility exists for actual rain-snow line to be further east t an my "median" suggestion, i.e., central Waterford into southeastern uplands and Dublin west suburban areas into most of meath except coastal strip. Would say it's a 1 in 4 risk at present.
Dublin is particularly problematic, could see arguments for some snow at times, but probably a lot of sleet and cold rain, with snow piling up on hills to south. Least likely to see snow would be Waterford-Wexford. A lot of mixed falls in parts of west munster also, except coastal environs, so including higher parts of Cork city and larger portions of inland Cork.
Outlooks could change with just slight deviations in guidance. This does not have the certainty of 2018 but it does not look like a dangerous probable bust situation either. I would also be concerned about heavy rainfall potential in lower parts of south and east not seeing much snowfall.
In shorter term, watch cold front moving south today for squall line tendencies. Could become a gusty frontal outflow situation. Some sleet on colder flanks but will clear out before it can dump much snow on hills, I think.
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Wednesday, 7 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Turning colder in stages and average will be 2 or 3 deg below normal over coming week, with potential for 25 to 50 per cent above average totals, in widespread falls of cold rain, sleet or snow. Turning warmer again around Wed 14th.
FORECASTS
TODAY partly cloudy and cool, mid-day sunny breaks, as rain or sleet will spread in again later from southwest, highs by evening 7 to 10 C in south, but staying in a colder range of only 3 to 5 C north and central counties.
TONIGHT rain, turning to sleet or wet snow inland, especially above elevations of 150 meters above sea level, spreading gradually north overnight into Thursday morning. Lows zero to 3 C for most areas, 4 to 6 C near south coast. Some locally heavy rainfalls possible in west and near south coast.
By THURSDAY bands of rain, sleet and snow will be established over all regions; fairly mild in the southern tier of counties (6-8 C), and quite cold in the inland north (1-3 C), also higher parts of inland west (2-4 C), so the potential for cold rain mixing with sleet will be higher in east-central counties, and for wet snow in the inland west to north, in particular, higher inland portions of Ulster, Connacht, Clare and Tipps. Temperatures on higher ground could stay colder than 2 C which is the general threshold reading for lying snowfall to develop. Zones of precipitation could drift north or northwest during the day, changing the phase in various locations. By Thursday night, as the air cools slightly, wet snow could begin to ix in at lower elevations for a while, and the highest probability for lying snow in most locations would be around 0300-0600 hours Friday. Unless guidance adjusts during event, lying snow is probably going to be mostly an upland feature but snow may mix in with rain without necessarily accumulating too. Raw and unpleasant would be good choices to describe what's likely in store.
From FRIDAY to SUNDAY, frequent falls of cold rain, sleet or snow are likely, with highs around 4 or 5 C (8-10 C southeast), details still not yet "carved in stone" but any established areas of sleet or snow could give way to cold rain as temperatures slowly climb in variable mostly easterly winds. Some higher parts of the inland west and north could continue to see sleet or snow, in east to northeast winds 30 to 50 km/hr, and there is potential for outbreaks of heavy rain near Dublin as part of the low pressure complex drifts north into the Irish Sea. There will be a risk of heavy snow or sleet producing streamers into western and northern counties by Sunday as low pressure will then be tracking north into Scotland, swinging the winds around to west-northwest eventually. That could result in heavier sea effect falls of sleet or snow on higher parts of north and west facing coasts.
Despite nearby low pressure areas, winds will seldom become strong especially near east and south coasts, as pressure gradients will be weak to moderate, but a few intervals of moderate to strong east winds are possible in Ulster.
It looks likely to remain cold but with less precipitation after about Tuesday 13th and the cold would likely moderate steadily, as most of latest guidance suggests that this warming trend could be fairly significant.
My local weather on Tuesday brought wet snowfalls of 3-5 cms that have been slowly melting with highs around 3 C.
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Thursday, 8 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Average temperature will be 2 or 3 deg below normal over coming week, with potential for 25 to 50 per cent above average totals, in widespread falls of cold rain, sleet or snow. Turning warmer again around Wed 14th.
FORECASTS
TODAY bands of rain, sleet and snow will be established over all regions; fairly mild in the southern tier of counties with a few dry intervals in southwest (7-10 C), and quite cold in the inland north (1-3 C), also in higher parts of inland west (2-4 C), other regions such as central Leinster, inland southeast around 4-6 C --- the potential for cold rain mixing with sleet including ice pellets will be higher in east-central counties, and for wet snow in the inland west to north, in particular, higher inland portions of Ulster, Connacht, Clare and Tipps. Temperatures on higher ground could stay colder than 2 C which is the general threshold reading for lying snowfall to develop. Zones of precipitation could drift north or northwest during the day, changing the phase in various locations. Some thunder is possible in the midlands and Ulster.
TONIGHT, as the air cools slightly, wet snow could begin to mix in at lower elevations for a while, and the highest probability for lying snow in most locations would be around 0300-0600 hours Friday. Unless guidance adjusts during event, lying snow is probably going to be mostly an upland feature but snow may mix in with rain without necessarily accumulating too. Raw and unpleasant would be good choices to describe what's likely in store. Lows 2 to 4 C for most, could remain a bit milder along south coast, and 0-2 C in higher portions of inland west and north.
FRIDAY frequent falls of cold rain, sleet or snow are likely, with lows 1 to 3 C and highs 4 to 6 C (8-10 C southeast), any established areas of sleet or snow could give way to cold rain as temperatures slowly climb in variable mostly easterly winds. Some higher parts of the inland west and north could continue to see sleet or snow, in east to northeast winds 30 to 50 km/hr, and there is potential for outbreaks of heavy rain near Dublin as part of the low pressure complex drifts north into the Irish Sea.
SATURDAY variable cloud, cold, isolated heavy showers of rain or hail, snow on hills. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 4 to 7 C. Winds becoming westerly across southwestern counties, light east winds continuing to late afternoon further north until low pressure has moved past.
SUNDAY a risk of heavy snow or sleet producing streamers into western and northern counties as low pressure will then be tracking north into Scotland, swinging the winds around to west-northwest 40 to 60 km/hr eventually. That could result in heavier sea effect falls of sleet or snow on higher parts of north and west facing coasts. A few brighter intervals likely near east and south coast.
MONDAY also windy and rather cold wit potential for mixed wintry showers.
It looks likely to begin to warm up gradually after about Tuesday 13th with rain off and on.
My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy to overcast with highs of about 6 C.
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Friday, 9 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Average temperature will be 2 or 3 deg below normal over coming week, with potential for 25 to 50 per cent above average totals, in widespread falls of cold rain, sleet or snow. Turning warmer again around Wed 14th. Some spread in guidance now about this warming trend, as one source (European model) tells us to expect a false start and a brief return to chilly conditions for several days.
FORECASTS
TODAY intermittent rain, sleet or snow now confined to higher parts of Ulster, where rain will eventually win out too, but as this storm weakens in central counties, a few dry intervals will develop too, with highs 5 to 8 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm in some but not all areas.
TONIGHT further outbreaks of rain, foggy in places, rather windy in southwest (southeast 40-60 km/hr), lows 3 to 5 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, rather cold, isolated heavy showers of rain or hail, snow returning to hills at higher elevations, highs 5 to 8 C. Winds becoming westerly across southwestern counties, light east winds continuing to late afternoon further north until trough of low pressure has moved past.
SUNDAY a risk of heavy snow or sleet producing streamers into western and northern counties as low pressure will then be tracking north into Scotland, swinging the winds around to west-northwest 40 to 60 km/hr eventually. That could result in heavier sea effect falls of sleet or snow on higher parts of north and west facing coasts. A few brighter intervals likely near east and south coast. Lows 2 to 4 C and highs 5 to 7 C.
MONDAY also windy and rather cold with potential for mixed wintry showers. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 7 C.
It looks likely to begin to warm up gradually after about Tuesday 13th with rain off and on.
My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy to overcast with highs of about 7 C. Investigating conditions in higher elevations (as it was a better day for looking around) we found an average of 30 cm snow depths above 1400 meters, which is still about half of long term averages, but it looks wintry once you get any distance above our elevation.
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Saturday, 10 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Average temperature will be 2 or 3 deg below normal over coming few days, with further potential for near average totals of cold rain, sleet or snow. Turning warmer again around Wed 14th. No large spread in guidance now about this warming trend, as one previously contrary source (European model) moved closer to consensus but it still looks colder on model run for a couple of days around a week from now.
FORECASTS
TODAY variable cloud, rather cold, isolated heavy showers of rain or hail, snow returning to hills at higher elevations, highs 5 to 8 C. Winds becoming westerly 40 to 60 km/hr across southwestern counties, light east winds continuing to late afternoon further north.
TONIGHT variable cloud, icy patches developing inland north, foggy in places, a few mixed wintry showers, lows -1 to 3 C.
SUNDAY a risk of locally heavy snow or sleet producing streamers into western and northern counties, winds west-northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, cold. A few brighter intervals likely near east and south coast, highs 5 to 7 C.
MONDAY also windy and rather cold with potential for mixed wintry showers in western counties at least, as winds not quite as strong by afternoon. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5 to 7 C.
TUESDSAY foggy or misty with occasional rain, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers, milder, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK generally mild, dry spells interrupted by brief showery intervals as weak disturbances pass. While strong systems will be tracking east into the central Atlantic, these look likely to weaken and begin circling around towards Iceland and back westward, keeping Ireland in a flow between southwest and south or even southeast at times.
My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to sunny and a bit colder, highs near -1 C and currently clear (for the first time in a long interval) -7 C.
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Sunday, 11 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Average temperature will be 1 or 2 deg below normal over coming few days, with further potential for near average totals of rain, sleet or snow. Turning warmer again around Wed 14th, and slightly cooler by Friday back to average then.
FORECASTS
TODAY a risk of locally heavy hail or sleet producing showers in western and northern counties, more isolated in east and south. Winds west-northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, cold. A few brighter intervals likely near east and south coast, highs 5 to 8 C.
TONIGHT variable cloud, icy patches developing inland north, foggy in places, a few mixed wintry showers, lows -1 to 3 C.
MONDAY also windy and rather cold with potential for mixed wintry showers in western counties at least, as winds not quite as strong by afternoon. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
TUESDSAY foggy or misty with occasional rain, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C in north, 11 C in south.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers, milder, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY foggy or misty, outbreaks of rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
FRIDAY rain at times, turning a bit colder in east winds of 30 to 50 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK generally seasonable, dry spells interrupted by brief showery intervals as weak disturbances pass, winds often east to southeast.
My local weather on Saturday was cloudy and cold with a high near -1 C.
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Monday, 12 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Average temperature will rise during the next few days, with further potential for near average totals of rain or sleet (at first). Turning warmer again around Wed 14th, and slightly cooler by Friday, back to average then.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy and rather cold with potential for mixed wintry showers in western counties at least, as winds continue westerly 50 to 70 km/hr, and highs 5 to 8 C.
TONIGHT will be cloudy with fog or mist, rain spreading in from south, lows 2 to 5 C.
TUESDSAY foggy or misty with occasional rain, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C in north, 11 C in south.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers, milder, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY foggy or misty, outbreaks of rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
FRIDAY rain at times, turning a bit colder in northeast to north winds of 30 to 50 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK generally seasonable, dry spells interrupted by brief showery intervals as weak disturbances pass, winds often east to southeast.
My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with occasional snow, about 15 to 20 cm accumulated, with a high near -1 C. A different disturbance now in the south central U.S. will spread snow into parts of the northeast U.S. tonight and Tuesday; 10 to 20 cm possible from north of NYC to southern New England.
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Tuesday, 13 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Average temperature will rise during the next few days, with further potential for near average totals of rain or sleet (at first). Turning warmer again around Wed 14th, and slightly cooler by Friday, back to near average then but soon warming up into next weekend.
FORECASTS
TODAY becoming foggy or misty with occasional rain except cloudy and dry in Ulster, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C in north, 11 C in south.
TONIGHT will be cloudy with fog or mist, rain at times, lows 6 to 9 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers, milder, and highs near 13 C. Rain heavy at times overnight into early Thursday.
THURSDAY foggy or misty with partial clearing by afternoon, showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
FRIDAY isolated showers, sunny breaks, lows near 5 C and highs 9 to 11 C.
SATURDAY rain spreading in from west, heavy at times, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY looking fairly dry at this stage, with near normal February temperatures (lows 2 to 5, highs near 10 C).
FURTHER OUTLOOK more unsettled into Tuesday 20th and Wednesday 21st, mild.
My local weather on Monday was foggy and a bit milder at around 3 C. A storm developing overnight will spread snow into parts of the northeast U.S. tonight and Tuesday; 10 to 20 cm possible from e PA into NYC, Long Island and parts of southern New England. This will also bring snow later today and tonight in Nova Scotia where eastern regions have a very deep snow pack from previous storms (100 cm on ground at Sydney NS, another 10-15 likely).
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Wednesday, 14 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Generally milder than average, with near normal amounts of rain and while rather cloudy, some sun in the mix.
FORECASTS
TODAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers, milder, and highs near 13 C.
TONIGHT rain heavy at times, lows 7 to 10 C.
THURSDAY foggy or misty with partial clearing by afternoon, showers, highs near 13 C.
FRIDAY isolated showers, sunny breaks, lows near 5 C and highs 9 to 11 C.
SATURDAY rain spreading in gradually from west, 5 to 10 mm expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY looking fairly dry at this stage, with near normal February temperatures (lows 2 to 5, highs near 10 C). Rain arriving late Monday, lasting into Tuesday.
FURTHER OUTLOOK more unsettled into Tuesday 20th, mild, but turning windy and colder around Wednesday 21st. Guidance shows various differences in details but this colder interval could persist for about a week.
My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and reasonably mild at around 4 C. Snow developed as expected in parts of the northeast U.S. on Tuesday and the low is now south of Nova Scotia where eastern regions have a very deep snow pack from previous storms (100 cm on ground at Sydney NS, another 10-15 likely). Strong winds and heavy snow will spread into Newfoundland later today and tonight. The strong low will then head north towards western Iceland and southeast Greenland.
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Thursday, 15 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Generally milder than average, with near normal amounts of rain and while rather cloudy, some sun in the mix.
FORECASTS
TODAY foggy or misty with a few showers, partial clearing later this morning, some sunny breaks by afternoon, mild, highs near 13 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals, isolated showers, lows 3 to 5 C.
FRIDAY isolated showers, sunny breaks, and highs 9 to 11 C.
SATURDAY rain spreading in gradually from west, 5 to 10 mm expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
SUNDAY increasing cloud, breezy, rain by evening and overnight, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.
MONDAY rain ending, breezy to windy, sunny intervals, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
TUESDAY windy with rain at ti es, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.
Around WEDNESDAY 21st, into Thursday 22nd, very windy and turning colder with squally showers. Rather cold, in a range of 5 to 8 C.
My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cold, highs around -3 C.
Post edited by M.T. Cranium on33 -
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Friday, 16 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Generally milder than average, with near normal amounts of rain and while rather cloudy, some sun in the mix. Turning colder towards Thursday.
FORECASTS
TODAY isolated showers, sunny breaks developing, and highs 9 to 12 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals at first, increasing cloud, lows 3 to 5 C in east and north, 6 to 8 C in south and west.
SATURDAY rain spreading in gradually from west, 5 to 10 mm expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
SUNDAY sunny intervals, increasing cloud, breezy, rain by evening and overnight, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.
MONDAY rain ending, breezy to windy, sunny intervals, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Winds south to southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.
TUESDAY windy and mild with rain at times, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C, possibly 14 or 15 in parts of the south.
Around WEDNESDAY 21st, into Thursday 22nd, very windy (west to northwest 70 to 90 km/hr) and turning colder with squally showers. Rather cold, in a range of 5 to 8 C. Even colder by Friday 23rd, weekend of 24-25 Feb. Wintry showers if not snow could return to the forecasts. Details are a bit different on each source of guidance but all show colder weather, wind directions northwest to northeast. It could prevent this from being the warmest February on record.
My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and cold, highs around -3 C.
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Saturday, 17 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Generally milder than average, with near normal amounts of rain and while rather cloudy, some sun in the mix. Turning colder towards Thursday.
FORECASTS
TODAY rain spreading in gradually from west, 5 to 10 mm expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
TONIGHT cloudy, a few showers, lows 4 to 7 C.
SUNDAY cloudy at first, later sunny intervals, followed by increasing cloud, breezy, rain by evening and overnight, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.
MONDAY rain ending, breezy to windy, sunny intervals, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Winds south to southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.
TUESDAY windy and mild with rain at times, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C, possibly 14 or 15 in parts of the inland south.
WEDNESDAY windy, turning colder, passing showers could be squally, temperatures near 10 C early in day will fall to 4-7 C. Winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.
By Thursday and Friday, very windy (west to northwest 70 to 90 km/hr) and turning colder with squally showers. Rather cold, in a range of 5 to 8 C.
There may be even colder readings by weekend of 24-25 Feb and into Monday 26th. Wintry showers if not snow could return to the forecasts; however, details are now a lot different on various sources of guidance, European model showing intrusions of milder weather but North American based models keeping a colder northerly flow in place.
My local weather on Friday was sunny and cold, highs around -1 C. A 5-10 cm snow event is currently moving through eastern U.S. cities, but will be over by daylight.
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Sunday, 18 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Generally milder than average to Wednesday, with near normal amounts of rain and while rather cloudy, some sun in the mix. Turning colder towards Thursday and Friday. Wintry feel returning.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy at first with a few remnant showers, then mid-day sunny intervals, followed by increasing cloud, breezy, highs near 11 C.
TONIGHT rain by evening in western counties spreading east overnight, only a brief interval of rain likely, lows near 7 C.
MONDAY rain ending, breezy to windy, sunny intervals, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Winds south to southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.
TUESDAY windy and mild with rain at times, some mid-day dry intervals before a more active frontal band arrives, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C, possibly 14 or 15 in parts of the inland south.
WEDNESDAY windy, rain during morning, and turning colder by afternoon in western counties, evening further east, passing showers could become squally, temperatures 10 to 12 C early in day will fall to 4-7 C. Winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.
By Thursday and Friday, very windy (west to northwest 70 to 90 km/hr) and turning colder with squally showers. Rather cold, in a range of 5 to 8 C.
There may be even colder readings by weekend of 24-25 Feb and into Monday 26th. Wintry showers if not snow could return to the forecasts; this colder trend seems more likely now that differences from one model to another have reduced. Winds northerly 40 to 70 km/hr.
My local weather on Saturday was sunny and cold with highs around -2 C.
Post edited by M.T. Cranium on47 -
Monday, 19 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Generally milder than average to Wednesday, with near normal amounts of rain and while rather cloudy, some sun in the mix. Turning colder towards Thursday and Friday. Wintry feel returning. Cold for several days into early March.
FORECASTS
TODAY, breezy, sunny intervals, and highs near 13 C. Winds increasing by afternoon to south to southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.
TONIGHT rain and strong south to southwest winds, 60 to 80 km/hr, lows 7 to 9 C.
TUESDAY windy and mild with rain at times, some mid-day dry intervals before a more active frontal band arrives, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C, possibly 14 or 15 in parts of the inland south. Intervals of heavy rain likely overnight.
WEDNESDAY windy, rain during morning, and turning colder by afternoon in western counties, evening further east, passing showers could become squally, temperatures 10 to 12 C early in day will fall to 4-7 C. Winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Wintry showers overnight, snow could fall in some higher parts of west and north.
By Thursday and Friday, very windy (west to northwest 70 to 90 km/hr) and turning colder with squally showers. Rather cold, in a range of 5 to 8 C.
There may be even colder readings by weekend of 24-25 Feb and into Monday 26th. Wintry showers if not snow could return to the forecasts; this weekend interval is looking quite unsettled but exact details are yet to be confirmed, depending on track of low pressure (suggestions it could be near south coast to be followed by strong northerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr.
It appears that the colder spell will persist into early March, with a slow warming trend.
My local weather on Sunday was cloudy and cold with highs around -1 C. Some light snow began after sunset, no accumulation yet.
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Tuesday, 20 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Prolonged mild spell will end late tomorrow, and it will be 2 to 4 deg below average for the rest of February. Some further rain will fall before the change begins, and frequent mixed wintry showers will follow. It will also be quite windy at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy and mild with rain at times this morning, then some mid-day dry intervals before a more active frontal band arrives, highs near 13 C, possibly 14 or 15 in parts of the inland south.
TONIGHT windy, intervals of heavy rain likely, lows 7 to 9 C.
WEDNESDAY windy, rain during morning, and turning colder by afternoon in western counties, evening further east, passing showers could become squally, temperatures 10 to 12 C early in day will fall to 4-7 C. Winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Wintry showers overnight into Thursday, snow could fall in some higher parts of west and north.
THURSDAY will be windy, west to southwest 70 to 90 km/hr, and cold with squally showers of hail, sleet or snow. Lows near 1 C and highs 5 to 7 C.
FRIDAY windy and cold, winds west to northwest 60 to 80 km/hr, and cold with squally showers of hail, sleet or snow. Lows near 1 C and highs 5 to 7 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, not as windy, showers of cold rain or sleet, lows -1 to +2 C, highs 6 to 8 C.
SUNDAY's outlook is yet to be fully confirmed, some (in fact most) guidance brings a strong low into southern counties from the northwest, but with only a slight rise in temperature before another surge of cold air from the north. Other guidance is less developed but follows a similar temperature trend, so we can probably say with more confidence that readings of 3 to 6 C will give way to colder temperatures late in the day. The intensity of mixed wintry falls of sleety cold rain or wet snow would depend on how developed this low becomes. This will also reveal the chances for strong northerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr developing by later Sunday and lasting into Monday.
It appears that the colder spell will persist into early March, with a slow warming trend.
My local weather on Monday was cloudy and a little milder with highs around +2 C.
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Wednesday, 21 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Prolonged mild spell will end later today, and it will be 2 to 4 deg below average for the rest of February. Some further rain will fall before the change begins, and frequent mixed wintry showers will follow. It will also be quite windy at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy, rain and isolated thunderstorms during morning, a few dry intervals but turning colder by late afternoon in western counties, evening further east, as passing showers could become squally, temperatures 11 to 13 C early in day will fall to 4-7 C in western counties. Winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.
TONIGHT windy, intervals of heavy rain, possible thunder, followed by wintry showers overnight into Thursday, snow could fall in some higher parts of west and north. Winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr. Lows 1 to 4 C.
THURSDAY will be windy, west to southwest 70 to 90 km/hr, and cold with squally showers of hail, sleet or snow. Lows near 1 C and highs 5 to 7 C.
FRIDAY windy and cold, winds west to northwest 60 to 80 km/hr, and cold with squally showers of hail, sleet or snow. Lows near 1 C and highs 5 to 7 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, not as windy, showers of cold rain or sleet, lows -1 to +2 C, highs 6 to 8 C.
SUNDAY's outlook is now more reliable, as all guidance brings a strong low into south-western counties from the northwest, but with only a slight rise in temperature before another surge of cold air from the north. Temperatures of about 4 to 7 C in the south early to mid-day Sunday will give way to colder temperatures 2 to 5 C later in the day. Some rain at first, then mixed wintry falls of sleety cold rain or wet snow in strong north-northeasterly winds 50 to 80 km/hr developing by later Sunday and lasting into Monday. This precipitation may be more showery with longer dry intervals further north although locally heavy bands of sleet are possible there also.
It appears that the colder spell will persist into early March, with a slow warming trend and highs of about 7 to 9 C towards leap year day, with moderate westerly winds veering northerly, and a few outbreaks of rain.
My local weather on Tuesday was foggy with some drizzle and highs around +3 C. No real signs of spring yet locally, possibly at lower elevations.
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Thursday, 22 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Cold for about a week to ten days, it will average 2 to 4 deg below average for the rest of February. Frequent mixed wintry showers will follow. It will also be quite windy at times. Somewhat milder towards 28 and 29 Feb but not as mild as last week.
FORECASTS
TODAY will become windy again, west to southwest 70 to 90 km/hr, and cold with squally showers of hail, sleet or snow, highs 5 to 7 C.
TONIGHT windy at times, wintry showers, snow could fall in some higher parts of west and north. Winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows -1 to +2 C.
FRIDAY windy and cold, winds west to northwest 60 to 80 km/hr, and cold with squally showers of hail, sleet or snow. Lows near 1 C and highs 5 to 7 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, not as windy, showers of cold rain or sleet, lows -1 to +2 C, highs 6 to 8 C.
SUNDAY as a strong low moves past south-western counties from the northwest, there will be a slight rise in temperature before another surge of colder air from the north. Temperatures of about 4 to 7 C in the south early to mid-day Sunday will give way to colder temperatures 2 to 5 C later in the day. Some rain at first, then bands of mixed wintry showers of sleety cold rain or wet snow in strong north-northeasterly winds 50 to 80 km/hr developing by mid-day Sunday and lasting into Sunday night. This precipitation may be rather showery and hit or miss with longer dry intervals further north although locally heavy bands of sleet are possible there also.
MONDAY windy at first, any leftover precipitation ending with a partial clearing trend, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 7 C.
TUESDAY sunny intervals after a frost, lows near -2 C and highs near 8 C.
It appears that the colder spell will persist into early March, with a slow warming trend, breezy with occasional rain, and highs of about 8 to 10 C towards 28th and 29th (leap year day), with moderate westerly winds veering northerly as it turns a bit colder again for Friday (1st March).
My local weather on Wednesday continued quite foggy with some rain and highs around +4 C.
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Friday, 23 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Cold for about a week to ten days, it will average 1 to 3 deg below average for the rest of February. Frequent mixed wintry showers will follow. Rain could ix with sleet on Sunday, but a drier interval will follow, and towards end of February it will be closer to average for temperatures. First third of March looks generally a bit colder than average but variable.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy at times, winds west to northwest 60 to 80 km/hr, and cold with squally showers of hail, sleet or (on some hills); highs 5 to 7 C.
TONIGHT gradually less windy, isolated wintry showers, lows -1 to +2 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud with some sunny intervals, not as windy, scattered showers of cold rain or sleet, lows -1 to +2 C, highs 6 to 8 C.
SUNDAY as a strong low moves past south-western counties from the northwest, there will be a slight rise in temperature in parts of the south and east, before another surge of colder air follows from the north. Temperatures of about 5 to 9 C in the south early to mid-day Sunday will give way to colder temperatures 3 to 6 C later in the day. Some rain at first, may be heavy in west Munster (10-20 mm potential), and some rain likely as far north as Galway to Dublin, then bands of mixed wintry showers of sleety cold rain or wet snow (on hills) in strong north-northeasterly winds 60 to 90 km/hr developing by mid-day Sunday and lasting into Sunday night. This precipitation may be rather showery and hit or miss with longer dry intervals further north although locally heavy bands of sleet are possible there also.
MONDAY windy at first, cloudy with any leftover precipitation ending around sunrise, showers in a few places to early afternoon, with a partial clearing trend and slowly abating northerly winds 30 to 60 km/hr, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
TUESDAY sunny intervals after a frost, lows near -2 C and highs near 8 C. Rain by afternoon and evening as southwest winds increase.
WEDNESDAY cloudy, breezy, intervals of rain, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.
FRIDAY (1st) variable cloud, cool, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.
WEEKEND of 2nd-3rd long-range outlook is cool and largely dry in light easterly breezes, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. This slightly blocked pattern could persist a few days before slowly reverting to westerly flow and occasional rain.
My local weather on Thursday was overcast wit a high near 5 C.
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Saturday, 24 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Cold for about a week to ten days, it will average 1 to 3 deg below average for the rest of February. Frequent mixed wintry showers will follow. Rain could ix with sleet on Sunday, but a drier interval will follow, and towards end of February it will be closer to average for temperatures. First third of March looks generally a bit colder than average but variable.
FORECASTS
TODAY variable cloud with some sunny intervals, not as windy, scattered showers of cold rain or sleet/hail, but overall staying rather dry, with highs 6 to 9 C.
TONIGHT cloudy with a few clear intervals in north and east, rain developing across western counties, spreading late overnight towards the southeastern counties. Moderate southeast winds 40-60 km/hr with the rain, not as windy further north where lows only 1 to 4 C, temperatures slowly rising with the rain further south to 5 or 6 C.
SUNDAY rain at times in south, possibly mixing as sleet in central counties as the event pulls away to the southeast, and winds increase from east to northeast, backing to northerly 40 to 70 km/hr, stronger gusts near exposed coasts. This could also leave some snow on higher slopes of southern hills by mid-day but also a general clearing trend will move south during the afternoon, temperatures will tend to peak at around 6 to 8 C with the rain and will fall to a range of 3 to 6 C later in the northerly winds. Some bands of mixed wintry showers could form over the near Atlantic and move into Connacht and west Ulster.
MONDAY still rather breezy at first, cloudy with any leftover mixed precipitation ending around sunrise, showers in a few places to early afternoon, with a more general partial clearing trend and slowly abating northerly winds 30 to 60 km/hr, lows -1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
TUESDAY clouding over quickly by about sunrise after a frost, lows near -2 C and highs near 8 C. Rain during the morning but the system looks weak and will come and go fairly quickly, possibly clearing again before sunset.by afternoon and evening as southwest winds increase.
WEDNESDAY cloudy, breezy, intervals of rain, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.
FRIDAY (1st) variable cloud, cool, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.
WEEKEND of 2nd-3rd long-range outlook is now rather unsettled but cool and breezy, highs near 8 C.
My local weather on Friday (en route to Vancouver BC) was sunny with a high near 8 C. Will be down by the coast for a few days, should be able to keep forecasts coming.
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Sunday, 25 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather cold with somewhat below average rainfall, but some days closer to average or mild.
FORECASTS
TODAY rain at times in south, possibly mixing as sleet in central counties as the event pulls away to the southeast, and winds increase from east to northeast, backing to northerly 40 to 70 km/hr, stronger gusts near exposed coasts. This could also leave some snow on higher slopes of southern hills by mid-day but also a general clearing trend will move south during the afternoon, temperatures will tend to peak at around 6 to 8 C with the rain and will fall to a range of 3 to 6 C later in the northerly winds. Some bands of mixed wintry showers could form over the near Atlantic and move into Connacht and west Ulster.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few isolated wintry showers, cold and rather windy (northerly 40 to 70 km/hr), lows -1 to +3 C.
MONDAY still rather breezy at first, cloudy with any leftover mixed precipitation ending around sunrise, showers in a few places to early afternoon, with a more general partial clearing trend and slowly abating northerly winds 30 to 60 km/hr, lows -1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
TUESDAY clouding over quickly by about sunrise after a frost, lows near -2 C and highs near 8 C. Rain during the morning but the system looks weak and will come and go fairly quickly, possibly clearing again before sunset by afternoon and evening as southwest winds increase.
WEDNESDAY cloudy, breezy, intervals of rain, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy, turning quite cold late in the day, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C but temperatures falling off to around 4 C by late afternoon, mixed wintry showers possible overnight into Friday morning.
FRIDAY (1st) variable cloud, cool, showers, lows 1 to 4 C and highs near 8 C.
WEEKEND of 2nd-3rd long-range outlook is now rather unsettled but cool and breezy, highs near 8 C.
My local weather on Saturday (in Vancouver BC) was cloudy with drizzle and a high near 10 C. Will be down by the coast for a few more days.
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Monday, 26 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather cold with somewhat below average rainfall, but some days closer to average or mild.
FORECASTS
TODAY moderate northerly breezes at first, sunny with cloudy intervals, highs 6 to 9 C.
TONIGHT frost could form early on, before cloud spreads in around midnight, followed by outbreaks of light rain from west to east, lows -2 to +3 C but temperatures 4 to 7 C by morning.
TUESDAY rain clearing east, sunny breaks by afternoon, a bit milder, highs 8 to 10 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, intervals of rain, milder, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C. Winds increasing to southwest 50-70 km/hr.
THURSDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy, turning quite cold late in the day, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C but temperatures falling off to around 4 C by late afternoon, mixed wintry showers possible overnight into Friday morning.
FRIDAY variable cloud, cool, mixed wintry showers may continue, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 6 to 8 C.
WEEKEND of 2nd-3rd long-range outlook is rather unsettled but cool and breezy, highs near 8 C. It looks like eventually March will begin to return to a milder pattern though.
My local weather on Sunday (in Vancouver BC) was windy with rain, followed by partial clearing and much cooler, as temperatures dropped from 10 C at mid-day to 1 C currently. Snow is falling in most of southern B.C. but not in the urban area here. That storm will move away quickly and will reach the east coast by Wednesday where it will promote a brief spike in temperatures to near 20 C. This same cold front will bring a similar drop in readings all across the continent as it moves quickly east.
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Tuesday, 27 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: After a brief return to milder conditions, turning quite cold again Thursday and staying colder than average into early March, with a general slow warming trend back towards average by end of first week; rainfall or mixed precipitation near average total amounts. Also rather cloudy and windy at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY after a band of showery light rain clears eastward, cloudy and misty for part of the morning before clearing to hazy sunny breaks by afternoon, a bit milder, highs 8 to 10 C.
TONIGHT increasing cloud, outbreaks of light rain, lows 4 to 7 C. Temperatures in a few places could be briefly 2 to 4 C before reaching 4 to 7 C after midnight.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, intervals of rain, milder, highs 11 to 13 C. Winds increasing to southwest 50-70 km/hr.
THURSDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy to windy at times (southwest 50 to 80 km/hr), turning quite cold late in the day, lows near 5 C and highs near 8 C but temperatures falling off to around 4 C by late afternoon, mixed wintry showers possible overnight into Friday morning.
FRIDAY variable cloud, cool, mixed wintry showers continuing, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
SATURDAY continued cold and unsettled with mixed wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 4 to 7 C, temperatures lower and chances of snow increased on higher terrain.
SUNDAY cloudy, rain or sleet, lows near 1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK turning milder gradually, frequent showers or outbreaks of light rain in a southerly flow, as highs return to 10-13 C range. Some signs of warmer and drier conditions at times towards mid-March.
My local weather on Monday (in Vancouver BC) was sunny, windy and cold with highs 2 to 5 C, we plan our return to home base for Tuesday to beat the next Pacific frontal system which is due to bring snow changing to rain here and snow in the mountains. The previous storm is now in the northern plains states drawing up very warm air that will reach the east coast by Wednesday where it will promote a brief spike in temperatures to near 20 C. The same cold front we had Sunday evening here will bring a similar drop in readings all across the continent as it moves quickly east. That storm is looking quite intense for the Great Lakes region threatening some damaging wind gusts and local snow squalls for leap year day.
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Wednesday, 28 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: After a brief return to milder conditions today, turning quite cold again Thursday and staying colder than average into early March, with a general slow warming trend back towards average by end of first week; rainfall or mixed precipitation near average total amounts. Also rather cloudy and windy at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, intervals of rain, milder, highs 11 to 13 C. Winds increasing to southwest 50-70 km/hr.
TONIGHT windy and colder, passing showers becoming wintry on higher terrain, lows 2 to 5 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy to windy at times (southwest 50 to 80 km/hr), turning quite cold late in the day, lows near 5 C and highs near 8 C but temperatures falling off to around 4 C by late afternoon, mixed wintry showers possibly turning to snow overnight into Friday morning.
FRIDAY variable cloud, cool, mixed wintry showers continuing, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
SATURDAY continued cold and unsettled with mixed wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 4 to 7 C, temperatures lower and chances of snow increased on higher terrain.
SUNDAY cloudy, rain or sleet, lows near 1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK turning milder gradually, frequent showers or outbreaks of light rain in a southerly flow, as highs return to 10-13 C range. Some signs of warmer and drier conditions at times towards mid-March.
My local weather on Tuesday (returning to home base from Vancouver BC) was partly cloudy to sunny, and cold, with highs -5 to -1 C, snow was about six hours behind us and has just reached our location, about 5-10 cm is expected by morning. We could see evidence along our route of variable amounts of snow that had fallen on Monday, as ground was still bare in valleys but 10-15 cm snow had been plowed in the two mountain passes we drove through. Later today (Wed 28) some near record highs will be recorded in eastern U.S. locations, 20-25 C possible around NYC and DC, but it will turn much colder there on leap year day.
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Thursday, 29 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures 2 to 3 deg below average into early next week, with a general slow warming trend back towards average by end of first week of March; rainfall or mixed precipitation near to 25% above average total amounts. Also rather cloudy and windy at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY variable cloud, showers, breezy to windy at times (southwest 50 to 80 km/hr), turning quite cold late in the day, highs near 8 C but temperatures falling off to around 4 C by late afternoon, mixed wintry showers developing, widespread in western counties.
TONIGHT windy and cold, winds W-NW 50 to 70 km/hr, passing showers of sleet or snow. wintry falls accumulating on higher terrain, icy roads in some parts, lows -1 to 3 C.
FRIDAY variable cloud, cool, mixed wintry showers continuing, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 4 to 7 C. Winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, easing by afternoon.
SATURDAY continued cold and unsettled with mixed wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 4 to 7 C, temperatures lower and chances of snow increased on higher terrain.
SUNDAY partly cloudy, rain or sleet spreading north late afternoon and evening, lows -2 to +2 C, and highs 5 to 8 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK turning milder gradually, frequent showers or outbreaks of light rain in a southerly flow, as highs return to 10-13 C range. Some signs of warmer and drier conditions at times towards mid-March.
My local weather on Wednesday saw 7 cm of snow followed by cloudy skies and temperatures near zero deg C.
Strong winds followed very mild temperatures on the U.S. east coast, where it is now turning much colder.
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Friday, 1 March, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures 2 to 3 deg below average into early next week, with a general slow warming trend back towards average by end of first week of March; rainfall or mixed precipitation near to 25% above average total amounts. Also rather cloudy and windy at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY variable cloud, cool, outbreaks of wet snow in Ulster, north Leinster, mixed wintry showers continuing elsewhere, all tending to drift south during the day, chilly highs 4 to 7 C. Winds northeast to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, easing by afternoon.
TONIGHT breezy and cold, wintry showers in western counties, snow on hills, lows -1 to +2 C.
SATURDAY continued cold and unsettled with mixed wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 4 to 7 C, temperatures lower and chances of snow increased on higher terrain.
SUNDAY partly cloudy, rain or sleet spreading north late afternoon and evening, lows -2 to +2 C, and highs 5 to 8 C.
MONDAY intervals of rain, foggy, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY rain or showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C. Winds southerly 60-90 km/hr.
By THURSDAY somewhat cooler in a southeast wind, showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK turning quite cold (3-6 C) in east winds (with low-confidence suggestions of wintry precipitation at times), possibly staying cold for about five days or even a week, before southerly flow returns and increases temperatures back to near average.
My local weather on Thursday was overcast and a little milder (3-5 C), with a slow transformation of snow on the ground to slush. A strong frontal system moving into California threatens to bring 3-4 meters of snow by Wednesday 6th to the Donner Pass region of the Sierra Nevada (west of Reno NV). It also looks very mild for central and eastern U.S. in coming weeks.
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Saturday, 2 March, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures 2 to 3 deg below average into early next week, with a general slow warming trend back towards average by Wednesday; rainfall or mixed precipitation near to 25% above average total amounts. Also rather cloudy and windy at times. Turning colder again after Thursday, and possibly staying cold for about a week then.
FORECASTS
TODAY continued cold and unsettled with mixed wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 4 to 7 C, temperatures lower and chances of snow increased on higher terrain. Wintry showers more frequent in western counties, snow on hills, winds northwest 50 to 70 km/hr.
TONIGHT breezy and cold, wintry showers or localized falls of 2-4 cm snow, lows -2 to +2 C.
SUNDAY partly cloudy, isolated wintry showers, rain or sleet spreading north by late afternoon and evening, lows -2 to +2 C, and highs 5 to 8 C.
MONDAY intervals of rain, foggy, lows near 4 C and highs 6 to 9 C. Rain could turn to sleet or wet snow at times, on higher terrain inland. Temperatures could be closer to 4 C all day on some higher terrain and in Ulster generally. So e risk of strong south winds by later afternoon and evening.
TUESDAY rain or showers, lows near 6 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with rain, lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C. Winds southerly 60-90 km/hr.
By THURSDAY somewhat cooler in a southeast wind 50-80 km/hr, showers could turn to wet snow in parts of northwestern counties, lows near 6 C and highs near 9 C but temperatures falling to 3-5 C by later afternoon and evening.
FURTHER OUTLOOK turning quite cold (3-6 C) in moderate to strong east winds (with low-confidence suggestions of wintry precipitation at times), possibly staying cold for about five days or even a week, before southerly flow returns around 15-16th, as temperatures return back to near average.
My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to overcast and cool, near 3 C, but a steady snowfall began at sunset and has already dropped 5-8 cm. All western regions are now in a cool and unstable air mass and higher elevations will get snow off and on for several days (as discussed, very heavy down south over the Sierra Nevada).
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Sunday, 3 March, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures 2 to 3 deg below average into early next week, with a general slow warming trend back towards average by Wednesday; rainfall or mixed precipitation near to 25% below average total amounts. Also rather cloudy and windy at times. Turning colder again after Thursday, and possibly staying cold for about a week then.
FORECASTS
TODAY partly cloudy, isolated wintry showers, more frequent over western counties and east Ulster, highs 5 to 8 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals east and north, cloudy south and west, rain spreading into southwest. Lows 1 to 4 C although -2 C in a few clear spots in northeast.
MONDAY intervals of rain spreading gradually north, foggy on higher terrain, and highs 6 to 9 C. Rain could turn to sleet or wet snow at times, on higher terrain inland. Temperatures could be closer to 4 C all day on some higher terrain and in Ulster generally. Some risk of strong south winds by later afternoon and evening near southwest coasts.
TUESDAY rain or showers, followed by partly cloudy skies, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with occasional rain, lows near 8 C and highs 10 to 12 C. Winds southerly 60-90 km/hr.
By THURSDAY somewhat cooler in a southeast wind 50-80 km/hr, showers could turn to wet snow in parts of northwestern counties, lows near 6 C and highs near 9 C but temperatures falling to 4-7 C by later afternoon and evening.
FRIDAY variable cloud, rain or sleet at times, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.
SATURDAY occasional rain, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK Sunday 10th to Wednesday 13th, quite cold (3-6 C north, 5-8 C south) in moderate to strong east winds (with low-confidence suggestions of wintry precipitation at times), possibly staying cold for a few more days, before southerly flow returns around 15-16th, as temperatures return back to near average.
My local weather on Saturday saw snow falling most of the day, with an eventual total of near 25 cm. Pictures from Sierra Nevada snowstorm indicate totals already near 2 meters.
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Monday, 4 March, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures slowly rising to near average values by Wednesday, and staying close to average or a bit below for about a week, rain rather heavy in south and west but a drier trend in east and north, quite cloudy and windy at times.
FORECASTS
MONDAY intervals of rain spreading gradually north, foggy on higher terrain, and highs 6 to 9 C. Rain could turn to sleet or wet snow at times, but only on higher terrain inland. Temperatures could be closer to 5 to 7 C all day on some higher terrain and in Ulster generally.
TONIGHT renewed outbreaks of rain in south, and risk of strong southwest winds by later evening near southwest coasts (60 to 80 km/hr). Not as windy further north, with occasional light rain or drizzle. Lows near 4 C except 6 to 8 C south coast.
TUESDAY rain or showers, followed by partly cloudy skies, as winds moderate; highs 9 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with occasional rain, more persistent in south and west, dry intervals in Leinster and Ulster, lows near 8 C and highs 10 to 12 C. Winds southerly 60-90 km/hr in exposed coastal locations, 40-60 km/hr elsewhere.
THURSDAY somewhat cooler in a southeast wind 50-80 km/hr, any showers could turn to wet snow in parts of northwestern counties, but long dry intervals seem likely, lows near 6 C and highs near 9 C but temperatures falling to 4-7 C by later afternoon and evening.
FRIDAY variable cloud, rain at times, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.
SATURDAY occasional rain may be confined mostly to south coast counties, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.
SUNDAY cloudy with occasional rain, lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 10 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK is uncertain with some indications of prolonged easterly wind flow, but also guidance that shows a milder southwest flow returning fairly quickly next week. The basic cause of the uncertainty is ongoing developments in the stratosphere, which are difficult to model accurately; a strong warming event could develop up at high levels, which tends to promote blocking highs, but as it's not certain to take place, guidance is "all over the place" past next weekend.
My local weather on Sunday was cloudy but dry, and cold (-2 C). New York City had a record high (for date) of 20 C (previously 18 C in 1991). Rain is spreading north from Florida towards the northeastern states and could become heavy. The prolific snowfalls continue in the Sierra Nevada range, and beyond to some extent (Reno, east of the mountains, has 20-30 cm on the ground).
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Tuesday, 5 March, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures slowly rising to near average values by Wednesday, and staying close to average or a bit below for about a week, further rainfall about half to two-thirds of average, and an even drier trend in east and north, quite cloudy and windy at times.
FORECASTS
TUESDAY rain or showers will continue to pus north into central and then northern counties, followed by partly cloudy skies, as gusty south winds gradually moderate into the afternoon; highs 9 to 12 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals east and north, chilly this evening, lows 2 to 5 C; overcast south and west, rain arriving around late evening but spreading only gradually north or east, lows 5 to 8 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with occasional rain, more persistent in south and west, dry intervals in Leinster and Ulster, lows near 8 C and highs 10 to 12 C. Winds southerly 60-90 km/hr in exposed coastal locations, 40-60 km/hr elsewhere.
THURSDAY somewhat cooler in a southeast wind 50-80 km/hr, any showers could mix with hail in a few places, but long dry intervals seem likely, lows near 6 C and highs near 9 C but temperatures falling to 4-7 C by later afternoon and evening.
FRIDAY variable cloud, rain at times but mostly confined to south, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.
SATURDAY occasional rain may be confined mostly to south coast counties, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.
SUNDAY cloudy with occasional rain, lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 10 C. The persistent east to northeast winds could ease gradually.
FURTHER OUTLOOK dry for a short interval as the easterly flow backs off to the north but it will take a while for a weak ridge of high pressure to break down and allow Atlantic disturbances to start arriving on southwest winds around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Temperatures near average, highs about 10 to 13 C. Slight frosts could return at times.
My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and some showers of sleety wet snow, with highs near -1 C.
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Wednesday, 6 March, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures near average or a bit below for about a week, further rainfall about half of average, and an even drier trend in east and north, quite cloudy and breezy to windy at times. Persistent low pressure well to the south will occasionally spin off moisture for Ireland but it will also be drawing in an essentially dry east to southeast flow from another distant controlling feature, high pressure over the Baltic region.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy with occasional rain or drizzle, more persistent in south and west, long dry intervals if not dry all day in Leinster and Ulster, lows near 8 C and highs 10 to 12 C. Winds south-southeasterly 60-90 km/hr in exposed coastal locations, 40-60 km/hr elsewhere. Some guidance shows heavy rain during the day just off the west coast, so that outer coastal fringes could see some of that but penetration inland could be very limited. Also, the SSE winds over Irish Sea could have a chilling effect on a few coastal locations there, again not necessarily pushing very far inland.
TONIGHT a little rain at times but dry in most places, lows 4 to 7 C.
THURSDAY somewhat cooler in a southeast wind 50-80 km/hr, any brief showers could mix with hail in a few places, but long dry intervals seem likely, lows near 6 C and highs near 9 C but temperatures falling to 4-7 C by later afternoon and evening.
FRIDAY variable cloud, rain at times but mostly confined to south, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.
SATURDAY occasional rain may be confined mostly to south coast counties, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.
SUNDAY cloudy with occasional rain, lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 10 C. The persistent east to northeast winds could ease gradually.
FURTHER OUTLOOK dry for a short interval as the easterly flow backs off to the north but it will take a while for a weak ridge of high pressure to break down and allow Atlantic disturbances to start arriving on southwest winds around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Temperatures near average, highs about 10 to 13 C. Slight frosts could return at times. The latest guidance suggests it will be dry more frequently than wet in this spell, over eastern counties in particular, as the high pressure will persist longer than the Biscay low and could hold off the Atlantic lows for parts of the mid-month period.
My local weather on Monday was sunny with cloudy intervals, and after a cold start, a bit milder at +1 C. It is quite cold again as clear skies prevail towards midnight.
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