Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)
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Thursday, 11 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry, now with generally 50 to 75 per cent of normal sunshine, temperatures likely to average 2 or 3 deg below normal values, a bit closer to average near east coast. It also appears likely to stay quite cold all of the following week (15-21 Jan).
FORECASTS
THURSDAY will be dry and rather cold, with a generally cloudy start, but some sunshine will develop further west, breezes light to moderate east-northeast, falling off to nearly calm inland north, highs 5 to 9 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals in north and west, very cold, freezing fog is still possible. Lows -4 to +2 C. Cloudy skies in east and south at times, may result in lows staying near or above 1 C, but still feeling quite cold.
FRIDAY a mixture of cloud and sun, light winds as core of high pressure settles over Ireland, cold, highs 5 to 8 C. Risk of freezing fog staying persistent in a few locations in central counties.
SATURDAY will likely see a continuation of the cold, dry and nearly calm spell, fog and frost, lows -3 to +3 C and highs 5 to 9 C. Winds rather light and variable.
SUNDAY cloudy, a few intervals of drizzle or sleet from north to south, maximum temperatures around 6 C north, 8 C south after lows -2 to +3 C. Winds becoming northerly 30-50 km/hr by Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK: Staying rather cold Monday 15th into Tuesday 16th, and with variations day to day, highs in range of 5 to 9 C, lows -3 to +2 C all week. A few wintry showers could develop but it will be largely dry, sunshine could improve, with moderate northerly winds giving a stronger wind chill effect at times. Disturbances forming just south of Ireland and running east along the arctic front could bring sleet or snow, but still no strong indications on actual threats, more likely to materialize in southern England closer to potential track of any ripples of low pressure, and duration of colder weather uncertain past about Thursday 18th, some guidance showing a gradual return to westerly flow, and somewhat higher temperatures, but eventually it could also become more unsettled.
My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with patches of blue sky to our north, very cold at around -10 C. A little snow is expected before we get into the coldest spell by Friday but this cold air will be shifting into the central U.S. and allowing a milder regime to return here. A strong storm on a track from OK to IL is expected to develop by Friday into Saturday, possibly creating blizzard conditions in the Midwest U.S. states and parts of the Great Lakes region, and another surge of mild air, strong winds and rain for the east coast. After that, colder weather will spread east, with snowfall threats in eastern regions.
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Friday, 12 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry, now with generally about 50 per cent of normal sunshine, temperatures likely to average 2 or 3 deg below normal values, a bit closer to average near east coast. It now appears likely to start turning gradually milder after next Friday (19 Jan).
FORECASTS
FRIDAY cloudy with a few sunny breaks, light winds even near coasts, as core of high pressure settles over Ireland, cold, highs 5 to 8 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals in north and west, very cold, freezing fog is still possible. Lows -4 to +2 C. Cloudy skies in east and south at times, may result in lows staying near or above 1 C, but still feeling quite cold.
SATURDAY will likely see a continuation of the cold, dry and nearly calm spell, some fog and frost to mid-morning, lows -3 to +3 C and highs 5 to 9 C. Winds rather light and variable.
SUNDAY cloudy, a few intervals of drizzle or sleet from north to south, maximum temperatures around 6 C north, 8 C south after lows -2 to +3 C. Winds becoming northerly 30-50 km/hr by Sunday afternoon.
MONDAY partly cloudy and cold, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr, isolated wintry showers, lows -3 to +2 C, highs 4 to 7 C.
TUESDAY some risk (about 40%) of bands of cold rains, sleet and wet snow in south, as a disturbance passes eastward towards Brittany, but also equal chances of this being too far south to extend its cold, wet precip shield into Ireland. Guidance is quite split on track of this wave, a partial remnant of that subtropical low currently near the Azores. If it stays too far south (some guidance suggests a track into s.w. France), a cloudy cold day with moderate east winds could be expected as precipitation stays off to south. Either way, temperatures around 2 to 5 C.
By WEDNESDAY, another and perhaps final push of colder air (for the near future anyway) will begin, partly cloudy and northeast winds 30-50 km/hr, highs around 4 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy, cold, winds southeast 30-50 km/hr, isolated wintry showers.
By about FRIDAY (19 Jan), a gradual return to westerly flow, and somewhat higher temperatures, but eventually it could also become more unsettled or even quite stormy as some guidance shows intense disturbances forming and passing close to Ireland (in the week following weekend of 20-21 Jan).
My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with cloudy intervals, after a few c of snow in the early morning, colder by stages and now -20 C here, with all of Alberta close to -40 C, and the core of bitterly cold arctic high over Yukon-NWT -45 to -50 C. This usually occurs once or twice a winter so not all that unusual, meanwhile the bitter cold is feeding south into the central states behind a developing blizzard-like snowstorm now in Kansas and tracking past Chicago (where 20-40 cm snow, strong winds and -25 C wind chills are expected) towards Lake Huron by Saturday. This will allow colder air to advance all the way to the east coast, ending their lengthy mild spell (near 10 C today). Later this weekend, a second disturbance now in Idaho, will set off snow that will spread east from OK and AR towards the east coast, possibly bringing 10-20 cm to NYC by Wednesday 17th.
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Saturday, 13 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry, with generally about 50 to 75 per cent of normal sunshine, temperatures likely to average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, starting to warm up rapidly around Friday 19 Jan, following week likely to be 1 to 2 deg above normal, with above average rainfall returning.
FORECASTS
TODAY will bring a continuation of the cold, dry and nearly calm spell, some fog and frost to mid-morning, highs 5 to 9 C. Winds rather light and variable. Patchy drizzle or sleet will develop over parts of Ulster and north Leinster, inland Connacht, and will drift further south, bringing trace to 1 mm amounts.
TONIGHT cloudy with a few breaks, sleet showers dying out. Lows -2 to +3 C.
SUNDAY cloudy, a few wintry showers in north, sunny spells developing, highs around 5 C north, 7 C south. Winds becoming northerly 30-50 km/hr by Sunday afternoon.
MONDAY partly cloudy and very cold, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr, wintry showers fairly widespread in north, more isolated central and south, lows -4 to +2 C, highs 3 to 7 C.
(note: our suspicions were apparently well founded, the Tuesday outlook now ignores the system missing Ireland well to the south, far enough that winds are unlikely to back into an easterly direction, but will stay northerly, so we now have this outlook:)
TUESDAY will be a partly cloudy and very cold day with widespread wintry showers, moderate northerly winds, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 3 to 6 C.
WEDNESDAY continued very cold, north to northwest breezes, isolated wintry showers, lows near -3 C and highs near 5 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy, cold, winds northeast to east 30-50 km/hr, isolated wintry showers. Lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C.
By about FRIDAY (19 Jan), a gradual return to westerly flow, and somewhat higher temperatures (near 7 C at first), but eventually it could also become more unsettled or even quite stormy as some guidance shows intense disturbances forming and passing close to Ireland as early as Sunday 21st, will get into details on that transition when confidence in those details rises beyond mere speculation, but most guidance shows temperatures around 10-12 C by Sunday and strong southwest winds with heavy rain in west and north. Some guidance goes a bit more gently into milder conditions and keeps the stormy weather further north around Iceland and Faeroes.
My local weather on Friday (yesterday's report said Wednesday but if you're keeping a log, it was actually Thursday) was sunny and exceptionally cold, near -20 C at peak, and now around -30 C approaching midnight. It's below -40 in parts of Alberta, and even the coast is below -10 C. A Siberian air mass moved over to our side of the Bering Strait last week and is now all over central and western regions of the continent. An oddly placed stronger arctic high formed over Victoria Island in the western arctic (now at 1057 mbs); the air mass it has created is actually not as cold (near -35 C, relatively normal for Victoria Island) as the weaker Siberian high now over Alberta, but as that strong high drops further south, it is reinforcing the extreme cold. The lowest reading I could find so far was -50 C at Watson Lake, in southeastern Yukon -- in context, their all-time record low was -59 C set on Jan 31, 1947. Three days after that, a weather station no longer in existence (Snag) near the Alaska border reached -63 C, a Canadian record. Part of the interest in that historical record is that in February 1947 severe cold gripped Europe including Ireland with locally heavy snowfalls. ... back to present, a strong storm moved through the Great Lakes region with widely differing results, some locations saw 20-30 cm snowfalls, others had brief snowfalls and rain or sleet before changing back to rain. The general trend is colder towards the east coast, which will begin to see a temperature drop by this afternoon.
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Sunday, 14 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry, with generally about 50 to 75 per cent of normal sunshine, temperatures likely to average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, starting to warm up rapidly around Friday 19 Jan, following week likely to be 1 to 2 deg above normal, with above average rainfall returning.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy at first, a few wintry showers in north, sunny spells developing, highs around 5 C north, 7 C south. Winds becoming northerly 30-50 km/hr by Sunday afternoon.
TONIGHT partly cloudy and very cold, a few wintry showers, lows -4 to +1 C.
MONDAY partly cloudy and very cold, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr, wintry showers fairly widespread in north, more isolated central and south, and highs 3 to 7 C.
TUESDAY will be a partly cloudy and very cold day with widespread wintry showers, moderate northerly winds, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 3 to 6 C.
WEDNESDAY continued very cold, north to northwest breezes, isolated wintry showers, lows near -3 C and highs near 5 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy, cold, winds northeast to east 30-50 km/hr, isolated wintry showers. Lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C.
FRIDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a bit milder, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.
SATURDAY overcast, breezy to windy, rain by afternoon or evening, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
SUNDAY (21st) is likely to be quite unsettled if not stormy, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C. Winds in a range of 70-110 km/hr from southwest.
Next week (22 to 28 Jan) will continue unsettled with intervals of rain and strong winds, but occasional colder spells wit a risk of snow in western counties. On average it will be near or slightly above normal in temperature.
My local weather on Saturday was sunny and exceptionally cold again, near -20 C at peak, and now around -30 C approaching midnight. It is again below -40 in parts of Alberta and now also Montana, and the coast is still below -10 C. Snow is spreading into parts of Oregon. The Great Lakes storm is dying out slowly in Quebec, but strong lake effect snow bands continue, and cold air is spreading to the east coast. The severe cold spell in the west will slowly moderate until we get back to near average temperatures by Tuesday. The central and eastern regions will be stuck in the cold for about a week to ten days.
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Monday, 15 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry, with generally about 50 to 75 per cent of normal sunshine, some wintry mixed precipitation more frequent in north, and temperatures likely to average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, starting to warm up rapidly around Friday 19 Jan, following week likely to be 1 to 2 deg above normal, with above average rainfall returning.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy and very cold, winds northwesterly 30-50 km/hr, wintry showers fairly widespread in north, more isolated central and south, and highs 3 to 7 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy and very cold, a few wintry showers, intervals of rain turning to snow inland over Ulster and north Connacht, lows -4 to +1 C.
TUESDAY will be a partly cloudy and very cold day with widespread wintry showers, as a band of sleet or snow fragments into showers in central counties; moderate northerly winds, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 3 to 6 C. Rain will be brushing past the south coast by evening as the distant Atlantic low moves towards western France. The frontal trough disturbance moving south in Ireland will blend with that system by evening and it could lead to an interval of accumulating snow in parts of the inland south.
WEDNESDAY continued very cold, north to northwest breezes 40-60 km/hr, widespread wintry showers in parts of north becoming more isolated further south, lows near -3 C and highs near 5 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy, cold, winds northwest 30-50 km/hr, isolated wintry showers. Lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C.
FRIDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a bit milder, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C. Rain by evening, winds becoming strong southwesterly.
SATURDAY overcast, breezy to windy (s.w. 60-90 km/hr), rain tapering to showers by afternoon or evening, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
SUNDAY (21st) is likely to be quite unsettled if not stormy, lows 3 to 5 C and late evening highs near 11 C. Winds in a range of 70-110 km/hr from southwest. Rain could begin as sleet or snow in higher parts of eastern counties.
Next week (22 to 28 Jan) will continue unsettled with intervals of rain and strong winds, but occasional colder spells wit a risk of snow in western counties. On average it will be near or slightly above normal in temperature.
My local weather on Sunday continued very cold, cloudy at first, then sunny with an ice crystal haze by afternoon, near -15 C for a "high" but it felt a bit less brutal (as we get used to it, interesting to see low-altitude sundogs created by ice crystals, quite brilliant rainbows just over the nearby ski hills), and we're expecting a slow moderating trend leading to a substantial snowfall by mid-week. Snow from OK to TN today, will move towards the east coast for Tuesday. About 5-15 cm expected, local 20 cm amounts will be quite unusual in parts of the inland south (Tulsa to Nashville).
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Tuesday, 16 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry, with generally about 50 to 75 per cent of normal sunshine, some wintry mixed precipitation more frequent in north, and temperatures likely to average 3 to 5 deg below normal values to Friday, warming up rapidly late Friday, and following week likely to be 1 to 3 deg above normal, with above average rainfall returning, and intervals of strong southwest winds.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be a partly cloudy and very cold day with widespread wintry showers, as a band of sleet or snow now in Ulster fragments into showers in central counties as it drops south; moderate northerly winds near coasts, and highs 3 to 6 C. Some lingering frost and fog in low-lying areas in the south, where it may not warm up above freezing until early afternoon.
TONIGHT partly cloudy and very cold, a few wintry showers, more frequent in Ulster and north Connacht, lows -5 to +1 C.
WEDNESDAY continued very cold, north to northwest breezes 40-60 km/hr, widespread wintry showers in parts of north becoming more isolated further south, and highs 3 to 6 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy, cold, winds northwest 30-50 km/hr, isolated wintry showers. Lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C.
FRIDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a bit milder, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C. Rain by evening, winds becoming strong southwesterly.
SATURDAY overcast, breezy to windy (s.w. 60-90 km/hr), rain tapering to showers by afternoon or evening, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
SUNDAY (21st) is likely to be quite unsettled if not stormy, lows 3 to 5 C and late evening highs near 11 C. Winds in a range of 70-110 km/hr from southwest. Rain could begin as sleet or snow in higher parts of eastern counties. Guidance is a little spread out on timing of strongest winds, some sources indicate Sunday mid-day, others are as late as early Monday.
Next week (22 to 28 Jan) will continue unsettled with intervals of rain and strong winds, but occasional colder spells with a risk of snow in western counties. On average it will be slightly above normal in temperature, with so e days near average (7-10 C) and others well above average (around 13 C).
My local weather on Monday was cloudy with some hazy sunshine, not quite as cold at -10 C. Still looking for further moderation followed by 15-25 cm of snow by Wednesday here. Snow is now falling in east coast U.S. cities, 5-10 cm totals are expected there.
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Wednesday, 17 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry for just two days before warming up rapidly late Friday, and following week likely to be 1 to 3 deg above normal, with above average rainfall returning, and intervals of strong southwest winds.
FORECASTS
As a general note, be aware of risk of encountering icy or slippery roads and pavements in a few locations especially in the morning hours.
WEDNESDAY continued very cold, north to northwest breezes 40-60 km/hr in exposed coastal locations, widespread wintry showers in parts of north becoming more isolated further south, and highs 3 to 6 C, in some cases not reaching positive temperatures until mid-day.
TONIGHT partly cloudy to clear and very cold, wintry showers dying out except in parts of Ulster and north Connacht, lows -5 to +1 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy, cold, winds northwest 30-50 km/hr, isolated wintry showers; highs 2 to 5 C.
FRIDAY after a cold, clear to partly cloudy night, partly cloudy to overcast, a bit milder, lows near -3 C and highs near 7 C but late afternoon or evening, cold will persist for the morning. Rain by evening, winds becoming strong southwesterly overnight.
SATURDAY overcast, breezy to windy (s.w. 60-90 km/hr), rain tapering to showers by afternoon or evening, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
SUNDAY (21st) is likely to be quite unsettled if not stormy, lows 3 to 5 C and late evening highs near 11 C. Winds in a range of 70-110 km/hr from southwest. Rain could begin as sleet or snow in higher parts of eastern counties.
Next week (22 to 28 Jan) will continue unsettled with intervals of rain and strong winds currently expected to arrive around Tuesday 23 Jan and Friday 26th, but occasional colder spells could develop between events, with a risk of brief wintry showers in western counties. On average it will be slightly or even well above normal in temperature, with some days near average (7-10 C) and others well above average (around 13 C). It could turn colder again near end of January.
My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy to overcast and not quite as cold, highs reaching -7 C. Snow is just beginning, but will persist for about a day and give us a total of 25-35 cm. The east coast snowfall of 5 to 15 cm was topped off with freezing rain and roads are reportedly quite treacherous in many places. Another light snowfall will arrive on Friday, remnants of the western snowfall, and a new low will form off the east coast, heading for Ireland and due to arrive Sunday night (see forecast).
Post edited by M.T. Cranium on48 -
Thursday, 18 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry for less than two full days before warming up rapidly late Friday, and following week likely to be 1 to 3 deg above normal, with above average rainfall returning, and intervals of strong southwest winds.
FORECASTS
As a general note, be aware of risk of encountering icy or slippery roads and pavements in a few locations especially in the morning hours.
THURSDAY partly cloudy to sunny, cold, winds northwest 30-50 km/hr, isolated wintry showers; highs 2 to 5 C. Frost could persist into early afternoon in shaded locations.
TONIGHT partly cloudy to clear and very cold, wintry showers dying out except in parts of west, lows -4 to +2 C.
FRIDAY after a cold, clear to partly cloudy night, partly cloudy to overcast, a bit milder, and highs near 7 C by late afternoon or evening, cold will persist for the morning. Rain by evening, winds becoming strong southwesterly overnight.
SATURDAY overcast, breezy to windy (s.w. 60-90 km/hr), rain tapering to showers by afternoon or evening, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
SUNDAY is likely to be quite unsettled if not stormy, lows 3 to 5 C and late afternoon or evening highs 11 to 13 C. Winds in a range of 70-110 km/hr from southwest, and possibly even stronger. Rain could begin as sleet or snow in higher parts of eastern counties.
MONDAY will be breezy to windy and a bit cooler, with passing showers, winds westerly 50-80 k /hr, lows 4 to 7 C, highs 8 to 10 C.
Next week (22 to 28 Jan) will continue unsettled with intervals of rain and strong winds currently expected to arrive around Tuesday 23 Jan and Friday 26th, but occasional cooler spells could develop between events, with a risk of brief wintry showers in western counties. On average it will be slightly or even well above normal in temperature, with some days near average (7-10 C) and others well above average (around 13 C). It could turn colder again near end of January.
My local weather on Wednesday brought a heavy snowfall of 35-40 cm, with highs near -5 C. It is a light powdery snow easy to shovel, and now perfect ski conditions, so they say. Clear skies now, a nearly-half moon close to Jupiter in the southwest at 8 p.m.
It undergoes a few transitions and mergers but the energy behind this snowfall event will race east, merge with an Atlantic low near the eastern U.S. on Friday, and be over Ireland on Sunday. Very fast flow in the jet stream at present time.
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Friday, 18 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will now change fairly rapidly to above normal temperatures, frequent rain, and occasional strong winds. Total rainfall is not expected to be too far above average but could be 25 to 50 per cent above in a few western counties.
FORECASTS
Be aware of risk of encountering icy or slippery roads and pavements in a few locations until later this morning.
TODAY after a cold, clear to partly cloudy night, partly cloudy to overcast, a bit milder, and highs near 7 C by late afternoon or evening, cold will persist for the morning. Rain by evening, winds becoming strong southwesterly overnight.
TONIGHT overcast, occasional rain spreading in around late evening, temperatures near 3 or 4 C at first, rising to 7 C overnight.
SATURDAY overcast, breezy to windy (s.w. 60-90 km/hr), rain tapering to showers by afternoon or evening, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
SUNDAY will be quite unsettled if not stormy, lows 3 to 5 C and late afternoon or evening highs 11 to 13 C. Winds in a range of 70-110 km/hr from southwest, and possibly even stronger. Rain could begin as sleet or snow in higher parts of eastern counties.
MONDAY will be breezy to windy and a bit cooler, with passing showers, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, lows 4 to 7 C, highs 8 to 10 C.
TUESDAY windy and mild, intervals of rain, winds southwest 70-110 k / r, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.
Later next week, breezy and continued mild, occasional rain returning around Friday 28th, possibly turning a little cooler in stages afterwards.
My local weather on Thursday was sunny with increasing high cloud, and rather cold, with a high of -7 C. Snow spread across the central plains states towards the Ohio valley and will reach the east coast today. That disturbance will race out to sea and arrive in Ireland on Sunday afternoon or evening but you'll be on its milder side.
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Saturday, 20 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will now change fairly rapidly to above normal temperatures, frequent rain, and occasional strong winds. Total rainfall is not expected to be 25 per cent above average in east, but could be 50 to 75 per cent above in a few western counties.
FORECASTS
TODAY overcast, breezy to windy (s.w. 60-90 km/hr), rain tapering to showers by afternoon or evening, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C. Rainfall not all that heavy but the milder temperatures will melt any snow on higher ground and bring snowmelt and rainfalls together into smaller river drainage areas in west and north; the combination could lead to brief flooding.
TONIGHT overcast, rain heavy at times in western counties, risk of flooding and mudslides near higher ground; occasional light rain further east, strong south to southwest winds 60-90 km/hr, lows near 7 C.
SUNDAY will be quite unsettled and at times stormy (Storm Isha), late afternoon or evening highs 11 to 13 C. Winds in a range of 70-110 km/hr from southwest, and possibly even stronger. Rainfalls of 20-40 mm in western counties. Expect some upgrades in weather warnings. (edited) At 0700, all of Ireland was under a yellow alert (lasting into Monday morning) and Northern Ireland (from UK Met Office) under an orange alert; similar conditions are expected especially in north and west so one of these will likely change and at 0900 it did, including almost all of Ireland now. Alerts are (will be) for a combined expected impact of wind and rain.
MONDAY will be breezy to windy and a bit cooler, with passing showers, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, lows 4 to 7 C, highs 8 to 10 C.
TUESDAY windy and mild, intervals of rain, winds southwest 70-110 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.
WEDNESDAY breezy, mild, mostly dry but brief intervals of drizzly rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue mild with strong south to southwest winds, and highs near 12 C.
Later next weekend, breezy and continued mild, generally dry, possibly turning a little cooler in stages afterwards.
My local weather on Friday was cloudy with light snow, 3 to 5 cm in total, with a high of -5 C. Snow spread across the east coast with 15 cm near Washington DC where a small aircraft had to make an emergency landing on a freeway (no injuries reported). That disturbance is already south of Newfoundland and will arrive in Ireland on Sunday afternoon and evening as Storm Isha.
(edited to update info on warnings Sunday-Monday)
Post edited by M.T. Cranium on53 -
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Sunday, 21 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... above normal temperatures, frequent rain, and occasional strong winds. Total rainfall is now expected to be 25 per cent above average in east, but could be 50 to 75 per cent above in a few western counties.
FORECASTS
TODAY _ Storm warning _ Today will be very windy with squally showers and possible thunderstorms as Storm Isha passes northwest of Donegal by afternoon, reaching 950 mbs west of Stornoway, Scotland by evening. . Winds in a range of 70-110 km/hr from southwest, and possibly even stronger near Atlantic coasts by late afternoon and evening. Also, risk of locally damaging "tornadic wind streaks" to 150 k /hr inland. Predicting exact details of such events is not really possible, stay tuned to latest reports and updates. Some models have indicated these damaging wind gusts could occur in parts of the inland south towards central Leinster. If they occur, they will be localized and not necessarily widespread, as we saw wit the tornado in Leitrim earlier in the winter. Today could produce a few ore, however. Rainfalls of 20-40 mm in western counties, 15-30 eastern. Late afternoon or evening highs 11 to 13 C.
I will update today's forecast if I feel that any specific warning more informative than the general warning is possible. But I would recommend checking the storm Isha thread frequently for updates (for one thing, I may not be awake every hour although I could be). Also, I noted orange level warnings in place for all counties, you would not be mistaken in being on "red alert" even if red alert conditions do not materialize in many places, I feel it will probably occur on a local scale. Driving is strongly discouraged as trees could be falling and local road flooding is also quite possible. Conditions are likely to slowly deteriorate to mid-day west, north, and to mid-afternoon east, south.
TONIGHT overcast, squally showers or thunderstorms will end before midnight, very windy at first, slowly easing later. Winds southwest to west winds 80-120 km/hr easing to 50-80 by morning, turning colder late in the overnight period, lows near 6 C.
MONDAY will be breezy to windy and a bit cooler, with passing showers and sunny intervals, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, lows 4 to 7 C, highs 7 to 10 C.
TUESDAY windy and mild, intervals of rain, winds southwest 70-110 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.
WEDNESDAY breezy, mild, mostly dry but brief intervals of drizzly rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue mild with strong south to southwest winds, and highs near 12 C.
Later next weekend, breezy and continued mild, generally dry, possibly turning a little cooler in stages afterwards.
My local weather on Saturday was cloudy but dry, with a high of -3 C.
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Severe storm watch valid 1200h-1600h (not yet a warning) (issued 1100 Sun 21 Jan 2024)
for the following extensive zone, southern to eastern inland counties, bordered by Cork (city), Galway, Dundalk, and Wexford. In that zone, one or two parallel squall line features could develop rapidly between 1200h and 1300h, and would then cross the zone within 2 hours. Cells could contain damaging winds, hail, and even a tornado. Risk assessed as moderate. Will upgrade to a more specific warning if I see evidence on radar. This is not intended to replace any other watches or warnings in coastal areas for later periods, and there could be severe coastal wind gusts in the watch period not associated with storm cells.
Squall line feature(s) would likely be oriented NNE-SSW on radar. Any forward bend or sharply defined cells with hook features would generate a warning.
Please use storm Isha thread for any discussion or comments on this.
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UPDATE _ 21 Jan 2024 1:45 pm
Will number various weather watches being issued by a date-order of issuance protocol. Be aware a watch is normally issued between 2 and 4 hours in advance of an anticipated warning. The warning may or may not follow, and may or may not amend the watch areas and criteria. A watch expires if no warning is needed in the given time frame, and can be extended if warnings are issued towards end of valid period ...
so now there are two other watches that I would like to bring to your attention for later today in western counties. ...
Earlier issued watch now identified as 2101 for severe storm activity very close to warning criteria for Tipps, Kilkenny, Laois, Carlow, Wexford, s Wicklow, s Kildare next hour, think it would be marginal severe so will leave at watch status for now, certainly a non-severe thunderstorm in the inland southeast would not be surprising given radar trends. Warnings are still possible in allotted period to 1600h
Watch 2102 now added for severe wind gusts associated with cold front advancing into western counties between 4-6 pm, counties affected all Connacht, Longford, west Offaly-Westmeath and Clare for now, will add other counties when within 3h of initiation of severe conditions, as per watch protocols. Wind gusts to 130 km/hr and possible embedded tornadic wind streaks, direction WSW veering WNW. Once again, will advise of warning status if radar or satellite confirms imminent threat. Risk assessed as moderate to high. Conditions likely to persist several
Advance watch 2103 for strong to severe W-NW winds Donegal, Sligo and Leitrim into Northern Ireland 6 to 9 pm, possible wind gusts to 140 km/hr, sustained winds 90 to 100 km/hr. Watch 2102 will extend in some places into inclusion in 2103, further south 2103 will not necessarily apply.
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UPDATE 21 Jan 2024 2:45 pm
Our watch 2102 upgraded to warning as conditions can be seen on satellite and are confirmed by blend of guidance and Valentia sounding at 12z.
All counties in Connacht, Clare, Longford, and parts of Offaly, Westmeath, will be subject to southwest winds veering westerly in the range of 90 to 130 km/hr causing considerable damage to trees, infrastructure, roof tiles and loose unsecured objects. Secure property in next hour where feasible. Conditions will be severe for several hours, and northern counties in warning area will probably also see a continuation into the conditions in watch 2103.
Adding Kerry, Cork, Limerick and Waterford to 2102, same timing is expected.
Would add Donegal to this warning starting around 5 pm, but watch 2103 is likely to upgrade to warning also before that.
Warning is now given identifier 2102-warn. This will likely be extended east and south.
Watch 2102 now expires in warned areas and was not applied to Limerick, Kerry, Cork or Waterford, but it now applies as a watch (2102B) for 6 pm to 10 pm further east, with wind criteria reduced to 80-120 km/hr.
So to summarize, a warning is now in place for most of the western half of Ireland for impending damaging wind gusts setting in soon (warning is for 4 pm) and watches 2102B and 2103 indicate very strong winds will appear further east and also across the north after 5 or 6 p m. In all cases strong to damaging winds are likely to persist for three to six hours in duration. This will have the effect of increasing damage potential.
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Also, later breaking, watch 2103 now upgrades to warning, for Donegal, north Connacht, Northern Ireland, Longford and some nearby parts of north Leinster ... winds west to northwest 90 to 130 km/hr are likely after 5 p m (6 p m inland n central), in most cases this warning is an extension of 2102-warn as winds continue to veer from west to north west, but for Donegal it is likely to be the main portion of the storm's damaging winds.
One remaining notice is possible, that being an upgrade of watch 2102B to a warning for rest of Ireland. Will adjust timing on that if necessary and upgrade around 4 pm.
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UPDATE _ 21 Jan 2024 _ 5:45 pm
All eastern counties and parts of southeast will soon experience peak wind speeds and gusts, already being felt over most parts of west and north at present. Conditions may not be quite as extreme in places more sheltered from westerly winds. But otherwise, expect an interval of westerly winds of about 80 km/hr, gusting to 110 or even 120 km/hr, with risk of localized damaging tornadic wind streaks developing. Conditions will be rough until late evening or even a little past midnight in eastern counties.
As warnings have now been posted for all counties, the question turns to when warning level conditions would end, and that would appear to be around 10 p.m. for some parts of southwest, 11 p.m. around Galway and some parts of inland west, and midnight to 0200h east and north.
Next message is likely to be the routine morning forecast. Stay safe.
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Monday, 22 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild this week with temperatures 3 to 4 deg above normal values. After the significant rainfalls yesterday, rest of week will have about 50 to 75% of normal rainfall, and also sunshine should be reasonably generous for late January. Further disturbances should remain below alert/warning criteria at least not going above "yellow" alerts in a few spots.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be breezy and rather cold in the wind, with a few brief passing showers, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 6 to 9 C.
TONIGHT will bring increasing cloud, southerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr, and occasional rain, lows 4 to 7 C.
TUESDAY will be cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, windy with rain at times until afternoon, highs 11 to 13 C. Winds south-westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.
WEDNESDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr.
THURSDAY windy with occasional rain, winds southerly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.
FRIDAY breezy to windy and cooler, variable cloud and a few showers, lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C.
A dry and relatively mild weekend will follow, highs near 10 or 11 C, lows 2 to 5 C.
My local weather on Sunday was overcast with occasional wet snow mixed with sleet, and temperatures -1 to 0 C. Not a lot of snow accumulated, perhaps 3-5 cms, but it was relatively heavy due to the rain or sleet mixed in.
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Tuesday, 23 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild this week with temperatures 3 to 4 deg above normal values. About 50 to 75% of normal rainfall, and also sunshine should be reasonably generous for late January. Further disturbances should remain below orange alert/warning criteria in all but a few very exposed locations near the Atlantic.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, windy with rain at times until afternoon, highs 11 to 13 C. Winds south-westerly 50 to 80 km/hr for most, 70 to 110 km/hr in coastal northwest, as storm Jocelyn passes to north during afternoon/evening. Inland and in the south and east, this will probably be less severe than Isha by a considerable amount, but we will keep an eye on radar for any localized squally showers, etc.
TONIGHT will be quite windy in parts of the north, westerly winds 70 to 120 km/hr, and occasional rain, lows 4 to 7 C. Further south, also rather windy but not too extreme, westerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr easing slightly by morning, skies gradually clearing.
WEDNESDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr.
THURSDAY windy with occasional rain, winds southerly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C. Turning sharply colder in the evening and overnight into Friday, winds veering to westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, wintry showers could appear in a few higher locations.
FRIDAY breezy to windy and cold during the morning, milder again by afternoon, variable cloud and a few showers, lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, occasional rain, lows near 5 C, and highs near 12.
SUNDAY to TUESDAY 30 Jan, an area of high pressure will bring seasonably cool weather, and sunny skies with a few cloudy intervals. Daytime temperatures will be around 8 to 10 C. Another milder interval will follow by end of January into early February. This sort of relatively dry and rather mild regime will continue for some time into February, it would appear from available guidance.
My local weather on Monday was overcast with occasional drizzle and temperatures +1 to +2 C. A slow melt is underway but snow depths (around 40-50 cms) are not changing very quickly.
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Wednesday, 24 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 3 to 4 deg above normal values. About 25 to 50% of normal rainfall, and also sunshine should be reasonably generous for late January. Even milder, near-record warmth is indicated for first few days of February.
FORECASTS
WEDNESDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, highs near 10 C. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr.
TONIGHT rain spreading in from south, moderate southerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 3 to 6 C.
THURSDAY windy with occasional rain, winds southerly 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 11 to 13 C. Turning sharply colder in the evening and overnight into Friday, winds veering to westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, wintry showers could appear in a few higher locations.
FRIDAY breezy to windy and cold during the morning, milder again by afternoon, variable cloud and a few showers, lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, occasional rain, lows near 5 C, and highs near 12. Winds south to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr.
SUNDAY to TUESDAY 30 Jan, a weak area of high pressure will bring seasonable weather, and sunny skies to parts of the north, while a weak frontal trough could bring occasional rain to south coast counties, with dry cloudy conditions in between for central counties. Daytime temperatures will be around 8 to 10 C. Eventually this pattern will yield to a stronger southwesterly flow, and Wednesday 31st into the first few days of February could be very mild and possibly near record warm (15 C).
My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with fog and light rain, with highs near 4 C. Snow pack is being slowly compressed and waterlogged, and side streets are slushy although most of the snow was removed. Unfortunately, we seem to be stuck with this pattern for a few weeks now, not too surprising given the strong El Nino.
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Thursday, 25 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal values. About 25 to 50% of normal rainfall, and also sunshine should be reasonably generous for late January. Even milder, near-record warmth is indicated for first few days of February.
FORECASTS
THURSDAY breezy to windy with occasional rain, winds southerly 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 11 to 13 C.
TONIGHT sharply colder in the evening and overnight, winds veering to westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, wintry showers could appear in a few higher locations. Risk of isolated thunderstorms. Lows 2 to 5 C. Colder conditions may be more noticeable in northern counties as the amount of time the colder air will be over Ireland ranges from very briefly or not at all in south, to 8-10 hours in Ulster. There could be a brief return to very windy conditions in the northwestern coastal regions that could be considerably less noteworthy further south and east.
FRIDAY breezy to windy and cold during the morning at least in northern counties, milder again everywhere by afternoon, variable cloud and a few showers, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C south, 7 C north.
SATURDAY variable cloud, occasional rain, lows near 5 C, and highs near 12. Winds south to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Rain could hold off for so e eastern counties for the day.
SUNDAY some uncertainty in the forecast as a slowly advancing frontal band of rain could stall out over western counties, or could keep pushing southeast, depending on which guidance is correct, so we hope to get this settled in the next forecast, but temperatures look likely to be fairly mild either way, the extent of rainfall is the question. Lows near 6 C and highs 10 to 13 C.
MONDAY's forecast is also affected by the uncertainty, if the rain moves through, weak high pressure could bring a sunny and tranquil day, if the rain stalls out it could still be around on Monday because otherwise it would be returning from the south by Monday night into Tuesday morning. So again, we hope to clarify the outcome soon, but temperatures are likely to be in a range from 8 to 11 C.
TUESDAY it seems that we will be saying goodbye to the uncertainty of the meandering frontal system which is going to get a boot eastward by stronger developments upstream ... so partly cloudy skies and mild with moderate southwest winds. Lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.
From WEDNESDAY on, for at least several days through the weekend of 3-4 February, very mild and dry with just a risk of occasional light rain in the far northern counties, light to moderate southwest winds, and a springlike temperature range from 5-8 C overnight to 13-16 C daytime hours, possibly setting records (or perhaps not because it was also very mild in 2002 and 2004 on these dates).
My local weather on Wednesday was overcast, foggy and mild with occasional rain, and a high near 6 C. It as turned a little colder since late afternoon and rain turned to wet snow for a while, but now it seems to be clearing up; slush will slowly freeze up at least until tomorrow's daylight hours.
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Friday, 26 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 3 deg above normal values. About 50 to 75% of normal rainfall, and also sunshine should be reasonably generous for late January. Even milder, near-record warmth is indicated for first few days of February.
FORECASTS
FRIDAY breezy to windy and cold during the morning at least in northern counties, milder again everywhere by afternoon, variable cloud and a few showers, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C south, 7 C north. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.
TONIGHT cloudy with spotty light rain in a few places, lows 4 to 6 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, occasional rain, and highs near 12. Winds south to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Rain could hold off for some eastern counties for the day.
SUNDAY a slowly advancing frontal band of rain will move slowly across western counties, and will slowly keep pushing southeast overnight, with a total by early Monday of 15-25 mm possible. Lows near 6 C and highs 10 to 13 C.
MONDAY rain will gradually push back north and could be heavy at times in some places, lows near 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C.
TUESDAY partly cloudy skies and milder with moderate southwest winds. Lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.
From WEDNESDAY on, for at least several days through the weekend of 3-4 February, very mild and dry with just a risk of occasional light rain in the far northern counties, light to moderate southwest winds, and a springlike temperature range from 5-8 C overnight to 13-16 C daytime hours, possibly setting records (or perhaps not because it was also very mild in 2002 and 2004 on these dates). There could be an interval of stronger winds and persistent rain by about Sunday 4th, and temperatures will become more variable although still somewhat above normal.
My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy with a few breaks, and still mild at about 3 C.
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Saturday, 27 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal values. About 75% of normal rainfall to near average in north and east, sunshine now only about average for late January. Even milder, near-record warmth is indicated for first few days of February.
FORECASTS
TODAY variable cloud, occasional light rain in Atlantic coastal counties by afternoon and evening, and highs near 12. Winds south to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr.
TONIGHT cloudy with light rain in western counties, mild, lows 6 to 8 C.
SUNDAY a slowly advancing frontal band of rain will move slowly across western counties, and into eastern counties by afternoon and evening, and overnight, with a total by early Monday of 15-35 mm possible. Lows near 6 C and highs 10 to 13 C.
MONDAY rain will gradually push back north in Leinster and could be heavy at times in some places, lows near 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C. Cloudy with only occasional light rain in west and north.
TUESDAY rain ending in southeast, otherwise partly cloudy skies and milder with moderate southwest winds. Lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.
From WEDNESDAY on, for at least several days through the weekend of 3-4 February, very mild and dry with just a risk of occasional light rain in the far northern counties, light to moderate southwest winds, and a springlike temperature range from 5-8 C overnight to 13-16 C daytime hours, possibly setting records (or perhaps not because it was also very mild in 2002 and 2004 on these dates). There could be an interval of stronger winds and persistent rain by about Sunday 4th, and temperatures will become more variable although still somewhat above normal for a day or two before colder air pushes in around Wednesday 7th.
My local weather on Friday was mostly cloudy with a few breaks, and mild at about 4 C. Snow has been melting gradually but most of the decrease in snow depth (to 20-25 c ) is largely just collapse of the snow as runoff see rather slight, rather bad timing as the annual winter carnival is underway here; some of the events have been cancelled or modified. It has also been quite mild in eastern regions but will turn colder in stages and so e snow is likely in New England on Sunday into Monday. Areas further south will need to wait for later opportunities in February for snowfall.
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Sunday, 28 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal values. About 50-75% of normal rainfall, to near average in north and east, sunshine now only about average for late January. Even milder, near-record warmth is indicated for first few days of February.
FORECASTS
SUNDAY a slowly advancing frontal band of rain will move into western counties around mid-day, and into eastern counties by afternoon and evening, with highs 10 to 13 C. Rat er windy at times, southerly 50-80 km/hr.
TONIGHT rain will continue across the southeast, heavy at times with a total by early Monday of 15-35 mm. Lows near 7 C in the southeast, to about 2 C in clearer skies in north and inland west.
MONDAY rain will gradually push back north in Leinster although heavier rain could stay off the coast eventually hitting Wales and northern England. Cloudy with only occasional light rain in west and north, a few brighter intervals likely in west and north, highs 7 to 10 C..
TUESDAY rain ending in southeast, otherwise partly cloudy skies and milder with moderate southwest winds. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 10 C.
From WEDNESDAY on, for at least several days through the weekend of 3-4 February, very mild and dry with just a risk of occasional light rain in the far northern counties, light to moderate southwest winds, and a springlike temperature range from 5-8 C overnight to 13-16 C daytime hours, possibly setting records (or perhaps not because it was also very mild in 2002 and 2004 on these dates). There could be an interval of stronger winds and persistent rain by about Sunday 4th, and temperatures will become more variable although still somewhat above normal for a day or two before colder air pushes in around Wednesday 7th. This mild spell will feature strong west-southwest winds especially in northern counties, with quite a temperature gradient developing near Ulster at times; at this point it looks as though very mild air will dominate in most of Ireland but parts of Ulster could see brief incursions of colder air in this pattern. Eventually the strong winds become northwest to north driving much colder air into all regions after about Wed 7th Feb.
My local weather on Saturday was mild with occasional rain and a high near 5 C.
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Monday, 29 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild after today's brief colder interlude, with temperatures back to an average of 2 to 4 deg above normal values. About 25-50% of normal rainfall, to 75% of average in north and east (north not seeing rain until later in interval, east getting theirs early and turning dry), sunshine now only about average for late January.
FORECASTS
MONDAY rain will linger in parts of east Munster and south Leinster, changing to sleet or wet snow on hills; heavier rain could stay off the coast eventually hitting Wales and northern England. Cloudy with only occasional light rain in parts of west and north closest to the southeastern rainfall, a few brighter intervals likely in far west and north, highs 7 to 10 C. (could be held to near 5 C in wetter areas of southeast, at least until rain stops falling).
TONIGHT a few intervals of light rain or drizzle continuing in southeast, variable cloud with a few clear intervals elsewhere, lows 2 to 5 C.
TUESDAY rain ending in southeast, otherwise partly cloudy skies and a little milder with moderate southwest winds. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 10 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, milder, lows 1 to 4 C, highs 10 to 12 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY very mild, dry except for some light rain in far north, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
WEEKEND of 3-4 FEB into MONDAY 5th, cloudy and mild, rain at times and windy, lows near 7 C and highs 10 to 12 C north, 12 to 15 C south.
Unsettled and windy to mid-week, turning a bit colder in stages but quite wet as frontal systems ebb and flow north- south over Ireland.
My local weather on Sunday was mild with fog and occasional rain and a high near 3 C. Flood warnings are widespread close to the coast where rain has been heavier and will continue for several days.
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Tuesday, 30 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal values. Generally dry but 25 to 50% of average in north, sunshine about average for late January or a little above average.
FORECASTS
TUESDAY frost lifting in a few inland locations, generally cloudy at first in south, spotty drizzle for a while, otherwise partly cloudy to sunny skies with moderate southwest winds developing, highs about 7 to 9 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals, cool, lows -1 to +3 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, milder, highs 10 to 12 C. Winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY very mild, dry except for some light rain in far north, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
WEEKEND of 3-4 FEB into TUESDAY 6th, partly cloudy to overcast and mild, rain at times in northern counties, and windy especially further north, lows near 7 C (3 to 5 C inland south if skies clear) and highs 10 to 12 C north, 12 to 15 C south.
Unsettled and windy by mid-week, turning a bit colder in stages but quite wet as frontal systems ebb and flow north- south over Ireland.
My local weather on Monday was foggy at first, and became sunny and very mild, with highs of about 10 C.
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Wednesday, 31 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal values. Generally rather dry but 50 to 75% of average in north, sunshine about average for late January or a little above average. Windy especially in north.
FORECASTS
TODAY partly cloudy to overcast, very mild. Windy in northern counties, where winds westerly 80 to 120 km/hr, rain heavy at times, 10-20 mm in Ulster and north Connacht, but only 5-10 mm by afternoon in central counties as front weakens moving south; highs 11 to 14 C. Winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr further south until afternoon, rising to 60 to 90 km/hr when front arrives. Some severe damaging wind gusts are possible in exposed locations in Ulster and Connacht around mid-day.
TONIGHT the frontal band of rain and strong winds will quickly clear south and skies will become partly cloudy as it turns colder briefly, lows 1 to 4 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY partly cloudy to overcast and very mild, as fronts return north; dry except for some light rain in far north, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C. Windy at times in northern counties.
SATURDAY rain at times in central and northern counties, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C. It will stay very mild further south, with only a few showers and highs of about 12 to 14 C.
SUNDAY to TUESDAY will continue quite mild and rain will be largely confined to northern counties, with daily highs of 12 to 14 C.
Around WEDNESDAY rain will become more widespread in a southwest flow, but it will stay mild to about Friday 9th or Saturday 10th; rain will gradually become heavier in all regions at the end of the mild spell. As of present guidance, colder air will move in around Sunday 11 Feb and it will be around 5 to 7 C for several days, before very mild air returns in time for mid-February. The month is predicted to average 2 deg above normal wit rainfall well above normal in northern counties, closer to average in south.
My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light rain and highs near 7 C. Record highs were widespread in the past two days in B.C., 18 C was reported at Abbotsford in the Fraser valley outside Vancouver. Rivers in coastal regions are at flood stage from snow melt and rainfall. In the inland regions it's ore a case of a gradually disappearing snow pack but so far not leading to flooding.
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Thursday, 1 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal values. Generally rather dry but 50 to 75% of average in north, sunshine about average for late January or a little above average. Windy especially in north. Rainfall more widespread after 8th, turning colder around 11th.
FORECASTS
TODAY partly cloudy to overcast and very mild, as front s return north; dry except for some light rain in far north, highs 11 to 14 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, mild, lows 5 to 8 C.
FRIDAY continued mild and becoming windy at times in northern counties; highs 11 to 14 C.
SATURDAY cloudy, rain at times and lows 5 to 8 C, highs of about 12 to 14 C.
SUNDAY to TUESDAY will continue quite mild and rain will be largely confined to northern counties, with daily highs of 12 to 14 C. It will be windy in the north, and overnight lows will stay quite high, in the range of 7 to 11 C.
Around WEDNESDAY rain will become more widespread in a southwest flow, but it will stay mild to about Friday 9th or Saturday 10th; rain will gradually become heavier in all regions at the end of the mild spell. As of present guidance, colder air will move in around Sunday 11 Feb and it will be around 5 to 7 C for several days, before very mild air returns in time for mid-February. The month is predicted to average 2 deg above normal with rainfall well above normal in northern counties, closer to average in south.
My local weather on Wednesday was foggy and mild with rain and highs near 7 C.
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Friday, 2 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal values. Generally rather dry until Tuesday, but 50 to 75% of average rain in north, sunshine about average for late January. Windy especially in north. Rainfall more widespread after Tuesday, turning colder around 10th-11th.
FORECASTS
TODAY continued mild and dry, apart from some spotty drizzle near west and north coasts and becoming windy at times in northern counties where winds will reach 60-90 km/hr from west-southwest; highs 11 to 14 C.
TONIGHT breezy and mild, lows 7 to 9 C.
SATURDAY cloudy, rain at times and highs of about 12 to 14 C.
SUNDAY to TUESDAY will continue quite mild and rain will be largely confined to northern counties, with daily highs of 12 to 14 C. It will be windy in the north, and overnight lows will stay quite high, in the range of 7 to 11 C. Rain will begin to spread further south later Tuesday.
Around WEDNESDAY rain will become more widespread in a southwest flow, but it will stay mild to about Friday 9th or Saturday 10th; rain will gradually become heavier in all regions at the end of the mild spell. As of present guidance, colder air will move in around Saturday 10 Feb and it will be around 5 to 7 C for several days, possibly a bit colder in north, before milder air returns around mid-February. With this change to colder weather, guidance is showing so e risk of wintry showers in a northeast wind flow, but it could be just dry and colder in at least some parts of the country.
My local weather on Thursday was foggy and mild with light rain and highs near 7 C.
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Saturday, 3 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal values to late Wednesday or early Thursday, then turning colder. Generally rather dry until Tuesday, but 50 to 75% of average rain in north, then in a colder interval later in the week, potential for widespread falls of cold rains, sleet or snow, precipitation values near or slightly above normal. Continued rather cold into second week of outlook, turning dry again, and slowly warming to near average temperatures.
FORECASTS
TODAY cloudy, rain at times with 3 to 5 mm rain in parts of the inland south, highs of about 12 to 14 C.
TONIGHT breezy and mild, lows 7 to 9 C.
SUNDAY will continue very mild with patchy light rain, highs 12 to 14 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, mild, rain spreading into north, lows 8 to 10 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
TUESDAY will continue quite mild and rain will spread south from northern counties, lows 7 to 9 C and highs of 11 to 13 C.
WEDNESDAY after a cool and dry start, lows 1 to 4 C, mid-day sunny breaks, as rain will spread in again later from southwest, highs near 10 C in south, but only 4 to 6 C north.
By THURSDAY rain could begin to mix with sleet or snow over central and northern counties, but details are not "carved in stone" at this time range. Temperatures are likely to be steady around 2-4 C in any areas and 6-8 C in the south.
From FRIDAY to SUNDAY 11t , frequent falls of cold rain, sleet or snow are likely, again, details to be worked out closer to the event(s), as at least two strong low pressure areas are expected to track near Ireland's south and east coasts, and northeast to north across parts of Britain. At this time range, several possible outcomes could be discussed, one would be for this storm track to shift either away from Ireland or closer to or even west of Ireland. The first of those would lead to a drier cold pattern with local sleet or snow streamers in Leinster. The second option would be a milder outcome with rain more widespread. Also a third possibility would be for the stormy outlook to downgrade to less significant amounts in general. Forecasts will likely "evolve" in the next few days and could go in any of these directions, so stay tuned (and if you know, raise your hand).
It looks fairly likely to remain cold but wit less precipitation after about Tuesday 13th and the cold would likely moderate slowly.
My local weather on Friday was foggy and mild without any rain, and highs near 7 C.
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Sunday, 4 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal values to late Wednesday or early Thursday, then turning colder. Generally small amounts of rain until Tuesday, but 50 to 75% of average rain in north, but in a colder interval later in the week, potential for widespread falls of cold rains, sleet or snow, total precipitation values near to slightly above normal. Continued rather cold into second week of outlook, turning dry again, and slowly warming to near average temperatures.
FORECASTS
SUNDAY will continue cloudy, breezy and very mild with patchy light rain, highs 12 to 14 C.
TONIGHT breezy and mild with rain at times, lows 8 to 10 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, mild, rain spreading into north, and highs 12 to 14 C.
TUESDAY will continue quite mild and rain will spread south from northern counties, lows 7 to 9 C and highs of 11 to 13 C.
WEDNESDAY after a cool and dry start, lows -1 to +3 C, mid-day sunny breaks, as rain will spread in again later from southwest, highs near 10 C in south, but only 4 to 6 C north.
By THURSDAY rain could begin to mix with sleet or snow over central and northern counties, but details are not "carved in stone" at this time range. Temperatures are likely to be steady around 2-4 C in any areas and 6-8 C in the south.
From FRIDAY to SUNDAY 11th, frequent falls of cold rain, sleet or snow are likely, with highs around 5 C (8-10 C southeast) again, details to be worked out closer to the event(s), but since yesterday's discussion, the trend appears to be towards a more certain interval of sleet and snow late Thursday and Friday, but uncertainty continues as to details for next weekend (10th-11th), with the same range of outcomes in play, probably most likely would be generally dry and cold with locally heavy wintry showers in northeast winds, and highs around 4 C.
It looks fairly likely to remain cold but with less precipitation after about Tuesday 13th and the cold would likely moderate slowly, although some signs in latest guidance that this warming trend could be fairly significant.
My local weather on Saturday was foggy and mild with rain turning to wet snow by evening, and highs near 5 C.
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Monday, 5 February, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Very mild with temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal values to late Wednesday or early Thursday, then turning colder. Rainfall increasing daily and eventually, potential for 25 to 50 per cent above average totals, in widespread falls of cold rain, sleet or snow. Continued rather cold into second week of outlook, turning dry again, and slowly warming to near average temperatures.
FORECASTS
MONDAY variable cloud, mild, rain spreading into north, and highs 12 to 14 C. Winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr developing.
TONIGHT breezy and mild with rain at times, lows 8 to 10 C.
TUESDAY will continue quite mild and rain will spread south from northern counties, lows 7 to 9 C and highs of 11 to 13 C south, as temperatures gradually fall to 3 to 6 C in northern and later central regions, where rain could turn to sleet on higher ground later in the day.
WEDNESDAY after a cool and dry start, lows -1 to +3 C, mid-day sunny breaks, as rain will spread in again later from southwest, highs by evening 7 to 10 C in south, but staying in a colder range of only 3 to 5 C north. Rain, sleet and snow spreading gradually north overnight into Thursday morning.
By THURSDAY bands of rain, sleet and snow will be established over all regions; guidance is beginning to converge on a solution where it stays fairly mild in the southern tier of counties, and quite cold in the inland north, so the potential for sleet will be high in central counties, and for snow in the north, in particular, inland portions of Ulster. Temperatures are likely to be steady around 2-4 C in many areas and 6-8 C in the south.
From FRIDAY to SUNDAY 11th, frequent falls of cold rain, sleet or snow are likely, with highs around 5 C (8-10 C southeast) again, details not yet entirely "carved in stone" but guidance is fairly unified on a trend towards bands of rain, sleet and snow from south to north, with winds east-northeast 40 to 70 km/hr if not stronger. There is some spread in guidance towards Sunday 11th, with different estimates of potential for snowfall -- one source in particular would support heavy snow streamers into eastern counties, but other sources are less aggressive and have weaker winds from more of a northerly direction than the strong east-northeast winds required for significant snowfalls in Leinster. So on that later stage of this regional wintry scenario we are still waiting for more reliable indications of this later part of the event.
It looks likely to remain cold but with less precipitation after about Tuesday 13th and the cold would likely moderate steadily, as some of latest guidance suggests that this warming trend could be fairly significant.
My local weather on Sunday began with snowfalls of 3-5 cm, followed by drizzle and partial melting of the snow, with highs near 2 C. As expected, a strong wind and rain storm hit California, with widespread flood and wind damage.
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