Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)
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Saturday, 14 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will be cool, dry to mid-week then more frequently wet, total rainfall amounts by end of Friday 20th about 75% of a normal week's worth, sunshine near average at first then a cloudy regime, overall about 50-75 per cent of normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy and cool with a chilly breeze, some passing showers in Connacht and Ulster mainly, with risk of local hail or thunder but other places will have longer spells of sunshine and no rain during the day. Highs 10 to 13 C.
TONIGHT cool with clear intervals, showers dying out in north and west, frost in some low lying inland areas, lows -2 to +3 C.
SUNDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, generally dry, highs 11 to 14 C. Light winds, but cold in shaded areas.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with morning frosts and fog patches, more cloud likely near south coast where intermittent drizzle could be reported, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, generally dry, east to southeast breezes picking up to 40-60 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C, highs 12 to 15 C.
WEDNESDAY rain will spread gradually north with southeast winds at 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.
THURSDAY rain heavy at times, fog or drizzle persistent in north, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.
FRIDAY showers, lows near 10 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
Little change in this dreary pattern through weekend of 21st-22nd or following week, as storm track will tend to run near south coast counties with rain from passing lows spreading over most of the country from time to time. Temperatures will remain mostly in the low to mid teens.
My local weather on Friday was sunny with cloudy intervals, and the high was about 15 C. Clear skies may give us a frost overnight and the sun will rise in an eclipsed manner, peaking at 80% coverage locally about 0930h. Going south from here the track of full coverage is about a full day's drive in southern Idaho and northern Nevada, but even there, the moon is too far away from the earth to cover all of the solar disk, so it's going to look like a "ring of fire" without total darkness there. Hoping we have some low cloud around to get some viewing chances through mist although I wouldn't recommend it to anyone for more than a second or two at a time. As mentioned here yesterday, this event will not have any partial phases in Europe, the event is later than sunset there and runs too far south to catch even west Africa.
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Sunday, 15 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will be cool and dry to late Tuesday and then more frequently wet, total rainfall amounts by end of Saturday 21st at least a normal week's worth, a few places above normal. Sunshine near average at first then a cloudy regime, overall about 50 per cent of normal.
FORECASTS
SUNDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, generally dry, highs 9 to 13 C. Light winds, but cold in shaded areas, as any early frost gradually disappears.
TONIGHT cold with clear intervals, frost in some low lying inland areas, lows -3 to +3 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with morning frosts and fog patches, more cloud likely near south coast where intermittent drizzle could be reported, and highs 11 to 14 C.
TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, generally dry at first, rain spreading into south and later central counties, east to southeast breezes picking up to 40-60 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C, highs 10 to 13 C.
WEDNESDAY rain will spread gradually north and ease to showers, with southeast winds at 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.
THURSDAY rain heavy at times, fog or drizzle persistent in north, lows near 9 C and highs 14 to 16 C.
FRIDAY showers, lows near 10 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
Little change in this dreary pattern through weekend of 21st-22nd or following week, as storm track will tend to run near south coast counties with rain from passing lows spreading over most of the country from time to time. Temperatures will remain mostly in the low to mid teens.
My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and the high was about 14 C. Rain began after sunset. We had only a few glimpses of the eclipsed solar disk, in small gaps in the overcast, but it was quite noticeable how dark it became at peak 80% coverage locally about 0935h. It was like a dull day around sunset in December for a few minutes.
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Monday, 16 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... cool and dry today and (in north) part of Tuesday will rapidly transition to wet and a little milder, with rainfall amounts by end of Sunday 22nd at least a normal week's worth, a few places in south and west above normal. Sunshine in a cloudy regime will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy with more extensive cloud likely near south coast where intermittent drizzle could be reported, and highs 11 to 14 C.
TONIGHT cold in parts of north with lows 2 to 5 C, but closer to 7 C in south where occasional rain will begin.
TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, generally dry at first away from south and west coasts, rain spreading into central and eventually northern counties, east to southeast breezes picking up to 40-60 km/hr, highs 10 to 13 C. Some rainfall amounts of 30 to 50 mm possible in south and west from mid-day Tuesday to Wednesday morning, leading to local flooding risks.
WEDNESDAY rain will spread gradually north and ease to showers, with southeast winds at 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.
THURSDAY rain heavy at times, fog or drizzle persistent in north, lows near 9 C and highs 14 to 17 C.
FRIDAY rain, drizzle, fog, lows near 9 C and highs 11 to 14 C, winds east 30-50 km/hr.
SATURDAY will turn a bit cooler in east to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs 10 to 12 C.
SUNDAY becoming partly cloudy with patchy drizzle, cool, lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 11 C.
After this cooler interlude, milder air will likely push back from the Atlantic and temperatures will return to 13-15 C range at times in the last week of October.
My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy with a few brief intervals of drizzle, and also a bit of sun, highs around 14 C.
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Tuesday, 17 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cloudy, increasingly wet, with temperatures rising slightly above normal by Thursday, then falling back to somewhat below average this weekend. Overall, temperatures will average near normal, rainfall 25 to 50 per cent above normal, and it will be quite cloudy in general.
FORECASTS
TODAY rain will spread gradually further north, but will be heaviest where already underway in southern parts of Munster where 30-40 mm could produce flooding in places. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm more typical further north, starting later towards the north. Moderate east winds 30-50 km/hr. Highs 13-15 C.
TONIGHT rain heavy at times spreading further north, lows 8-10 C.
WEDNESDAY rain tapering to showers, some brighter intervals, a bit milder. Highs 14-16 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, showers, isolated thunderstorms, mild. Lows near 12 C and highs 15-17 C.
FRIDAY occasional rain, cooler east winds returning, drizzle and fog near coasts in east and north, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, showers, cool, east winds 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.
SUNDAY mixture of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers, cool. Lows near 3 C and highs near 11 C.
From MONDAY 23rd on, somewhat milder but unsettled as a stronger westerly flow resumes, with passing disturbances typical of late October, windy at times.
My local weather on Monday was overcast and reasonably mild at about 14 C. A steady rain began after sunset and continues as a Pacific storm moves inland. We will have a gradually improving weather regime ending with quite warm temperatures late in the week, probably our chance to prepare gardens for the winter ahead.
Speaking of the winter ahead, I am looking at various guidance for winter trends and will give you a forecast around a week from now. No early ideas or preconceptions, will see what various groups are thinking and blend that into what I foresee from research data.
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Wednesday, 18 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cloudy, increasingly wet, with temperatures rising slightly above normal by Thursday, then falling back to somewhat below average this weekend. Overall, temperatures will average near normal, further rainfall about 25 per cent above normal, and it will be quite cloudy in general.
FORECASTS
TODAY rain tapering to showers, some brighter intervals, a bit milder. Highs 14-16 C. Rain will continue rather heavy across south, with further 15-25 mm likely. Winds easterly 30-50 km/hr.
TONIGHT drizzle and fog, very mild, lows 10 to 13 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, showers, isolated thunderstorms, mild. Lows near 12 C and highs 15-17 C.
FRIDAY occasional rain, cooler east winds returning with a northerly shift likely near west coast, drizzle and fog near coasts in east and north, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, showers, cool, east winds 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 5 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
SUNDAY mixture of cloud and sunshine, showers, cool. Lows near 3 C and highs near 11 C. Rain late in day and overnight into MONDAY, lows near 9 C and highs around 13 C. Potentially quite wet and stormy around Tuesday 24th with additional passing disturbances typical of late October, quite windy at times.
My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and cool, highs around 12 C. Leaf fall has been extensive and we are well past the peak of fall colour now.
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Thursday, 19 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cloudy, but once today's rain in Ulster and nearby counties subsides, further rainfalls will be fairly moderate, with some uncertainty, only about 25 to 50 per cent of normal except for the larger totals in the north yet to be completed. Temperatures will be mild at first but generally cool later and will average near normal. Sunshine rather sparse but could eventually total 25 to 50 per cent of normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY variable cloud, rain gradually tapering to showers in Ulster and other parts of the north, isolated thunderstorms could develop later in central counties, mild, highest values in central Leinster, highs 15-17 C.
TONIGHT rain, drizzle and fog, lows 8 to 10 C.
FRIDAY occasional rain, cooler east winds returning with a northerly shift likely near west coast, drizzle and fog near coasts in east and north, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Winds moderate 40-60 km/hr except 60-80 near southwest coasts.
SATURDAY variable cloud, showers, cool, northwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 5 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
SUNDAY mixture of cloud and sunshine, showers, cool to start. Lows near 3 C and highs 11 to 13 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 9 C and highs around 13 C.
Potential for a stormy interval around Tuesday 24th has decreased somewhat but models are in flux and trends could come and go, but a cool west to northwest flow will probably be at least moderately unsettled. Remnants of a new tropical system (Tammy) could be in the vicinity by late next week after Tammy intensifies slowly this week east of the Virgin Islands and later north of Puerto Rico. It could be a weak hurricane by about Tuesday, and will then accelerate northeast. Latest guidance suggests its late stages will be swept into Spain and the western Mediterranean around 27 to 29 October. Temperatures all of next week and into early November are looking cool but not unseasonably cold.
My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy all morning, with warmer sunshine by afternoon, highs near 17 C.
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Friday, 20 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cloudy, with generally near average further rainfalls, possibly 25-50 per cent above normal in parts of Leinster and Ulster as heavy rains are expected today. Temperatures will average near normal. Sunshine rather sparse but could eventually total 25 to 50 per cent of normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY intervals of rain across Ulster and north Leinster will become quite heavy as the rain spreads south into central Leinster, some upslope areas south of Dublin could see 30-50 mm and streams flowing out of mountains could flood by afternoon. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm fairly widespread in Ulster and Leinster, 5-15 mm in Connacht and Munster. Further west, variable cloud, rain from east will fragment to showers in midlands, with a few brighter intervals possible in south central counties; cooler east winds 40-60 km/hr with a northeasterly shift likely near west coast, persistent drizzle and fog near coasts in east and north, and highs near 13 C.
TONIGHT rain, drizzle and fog, moderate northeast winds 30-50 km/hr. and lows 6 to 9 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, showers, cool, north to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr. and highs 9 to 12 C.
SUNDAY a mixture of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers but generally dry to late afternoon or evening. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
MONDAY variable cloud to overcast, showers with heavy rain possible in south, lows near 9 C and highs around 13 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.
WEDNESDAY could turn quite windy, not a certain forecast yet, but certainly unsettled and cool, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.
The rest of the week and early following week, to see October out, will stay unsettled and showery with near average temperatures.
My local weather on Thursday was warm and sunny with highs near 20 C.
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Saturday, 21 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cloudy, with rainfalls 25-50 per cent above normal. Temperatures will average near normal. Sunshine rather sparse but could eventually total 50 per cent of normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY variable cloud or overcast, a few showers, cool, north to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr. and highs 9 to 12 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy with clear intervals, patchy frost and fog, lows -1 to +4 C.
SUNDAY a mixture of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers but generally dry to late afternoon or evening, and highs 12 to 15 C.
MONDAY variable cloud to overcast, showers with heavy rain possible in south, lows near 7 C and highs around 13 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, dry intervals followed by a few showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.
WEDNESDAY becoming windy with rain heavy at times, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.
The rest of the week and early following week, to see October out, will stay unsettled and showery with near average temperatures. Another quite wet and windy interval could follow around Friday 27th and further Atlantic disturbances are indicated into early November.
Tammy became a hurricane near Martinique, but latest guidance suggests it will stay in the western Atlantic all of next week, circling around near Bermuda. If it ever plays any role in European weather that is not likely to be before two weeks from now.
My local weather on Friday was cloudy and mild with highs near 16 C. A few intervals of hazy sunshine developed during the afternoon. Our relatively warm spell will end after one more day and it may be cold enough for snow by Tuesday here. The weather also turned very cold with snow at this time last year but this autumn will probably see a quick return to mild conditions unlike last year when it stayed very cold for the duration of the winter.
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Sunday, 22 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cloudy, with rainfalls 25-50 per cent above normal. Temperatures will average near normal. Sunshine rather sparse but could eventually total 50 per cent of normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY once low cloud and fog clear away, a mixture of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers but generally dry to late afternoon or evening, and highs 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT cloudy with occasional rain, lows near 7 C.
MONDAY variable cloud to overcast, showers with heavy rain possible in south, lows near 7 C and highs around 13 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, dry intervals followed by a few showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.
WEDNESDAY becoming windy with rain heavy at times, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY partly to mostly cloudy, showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.
FRIDAY intervals of rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.
It will remain unsettled to near the end of October with a slightly colder trend around the week of 30 Oct to 3 Nov, possibly a stormy interval to follow.
My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with some filtered sunshine, highs near 15 C. It's about to turn a lot colder here with 3-5 cms of snow expected by Tuesday.
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Monday, 23 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cloudy, with rainfalls 25-50 per cent above normal. Temperatures will average near normal. Sunshine rather sparse but could eventually total 50 per cent of normal.
WINTER FORECAST _ I expect a mixture of cold and milder spells, and a surplus of precipitation, sometimes taking mixed form or snow, most frequently in some northern counties, as the jet stream may often be close to Ireland this winter. There could be one or two cold episodes of about a week in duration as blocking appears at least for brief intervals. But I think the main feature may be the tendency to occasional heavy precipitation. Where this is wintry, it likely won't last long before melting. In the south and west, heavy rainfalls are possible and there could be some renewed flooding as a result. Overall I expect it will be near average in temperatures and above normal in precipitation. In Britain it will be a similar picture but perhaps longer intervals for lying snow and cold temperatures. Scotland may trend very cold and this could spill over into east Ulster at least favoring more snow there. It's likely that there will be a more settled regime later into February and March. If it were not for the recent trends to mild winters, I would perhaps read these signals as portending prolonged cold and snow, and that could turn out to be the situation for some parts of north-central Britain and possibly a few parts of eastern Ulster and north Leinster. The pattern we have just witnessed with slow-moving deep low pressure and distant blocking high pressure could repeat at intervals with a wintry adjustment to details.
Will keep an eye on trends and comment on how this scenario is developing, and if any adjustments may be required.
FORECASTS
TODAY variable cloud to overcast, showers with a few intervals of heavy rain possible in south, lows near 7 C and highs around 13 C.
TONIGHT cloudy with fog and drizzle, partial clearing towards dawn at least above ground fog layers, lows 4 to 7 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, dry intervals followed by a few showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.
WEDNESDAY becoming rather windy with rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
THURSDAY partly to mostly cloudy, showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.
FRIDAY intervals of rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.
WEEKEND of 28-29 OCTOBER will continue unsettled with temperatures around 8 to 10 C and intervals of heavy rain on Saturday near south coast, turning a bit colder on Sunday with variable cloud, and northeast winds, highs 7 to 9 C. Colder weather will probably last only a day or two before it turns considerably milder around first of November.
My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with occasional rain, highs near 12 C. Colder air is poised to take over here later today and snow could begin around late evening to early morning Tuesday.
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Tuesday, 24 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather unsettled but all elements fairly close to seasonal averages, south may see a bit more rain than other regions.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny intervals, and light winds. Any isolated showers will tend to die out later this morning. Highs 12 to 14 C.
TONIGHT clear at first, increasing cloud, lows 2 to 5 C in north and east, 5 to 8 C in south and west.
WEDNESDAY rain will slowly move in across south and west, reaching midlands by early afternoon and east coast by late afternoon. Rather cloudy before the rain arrives, highs 13 to 15 C. Becoming rather windy on south coast by afternoon (southerly winds 50-80 km/hr).
THURSDAY rain tapering off to showers, rather breezy from the southwest, lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
FRIDAY further outbreaks of rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.
SATURDAY intervals of heavy rain in south, showers further north, lows near 9 C and highs 11 to 13 C.
SUNDAY turning a bit colder with winds gradually turning to northeast (40-60 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of north and northwest). A few showers and brighter intervals. Lows 5 to 7 C and highs 7 to 10 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C, becoming windy towards evening.
TUESDAY windy and milder, showers or intervals of rain likely, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.
Quite mild for a few days in early November and then a more variable trend.
My local weather has turned quite cold with snow showers around us, dumping some fresh snow on hills but so far not at my elevation in town. Earlier on Monday it was partly cloudy to sunny and around 8 to 10 C. It is dropping close to zero C now and will probably be close to that level all day, falling again under clear skies once the frontal cloud and snow flurries move past. This will eventually create a stronger disturbance in the plains states which will bring in very warm air for eastern regions of the US where record highs are predicted for this coming weekend (around 27 C). Our cold spell will last until then with slow moderation expected. Hurricane Tammy is heading slowly north away from the Caribbean region and towards the central Atlantic, where it may turn west and brush Bermuda with strong winds by the weekend.
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Wednesday, 25 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather unsettled but all elements fairly close to seasonal averages, south may see a bit more rain than other regions. Colder Sunday and early Monday, turning milder during following few days peaking around 2nd November and becoming very windy. (confidence moderate at present, will need to be watched for storm potential 2-3 Nov)
FORECASTS
TODAY rain will slowly move in across south and west, reaching midlands by early afternoon and east coast by late afternoon. Patchy dense fog in central counties could reduce visibility in low-lying areas near ponds and streams or standing water from recent rainfalls. This fog will gradually lift during the next few hours. Some filtered sunshine through cloud layers and increasing cloud before the rain arrives, highs 13 to 15 C. Becoming rather windy on south coast by afternoon (southerly winds 50-70 km/hr).
TONIGHT overcast with rain or showers, lows 7 to 9 C.
THURSDAY rain tapering off to showers, rather breezy from the southwest, and highs 12 to 14 C.
FRIDAY further outbreaks of rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.
SATURDAY widespread intermittent rain, and a few intervals of heavy rain in southeast by afternoon and evening although it appears heaviest rain will head for south Wales and southwest England, rainfall showery further north, lows near 9 C and highs 11 to 13 C.
SUNDAY turning a bit colder with winds gradually turning to northeast (40-60 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of north and northwest). A few showers and brighter intervals. Lows 5 to 7 C and highs 7 to 10 C, coldest inland northern counties.
MONDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C, becoming windy towards evening.
TUESDAY variable cloud, showers or intervals of rain likely, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.
WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY (2-3 Nov) potentially quite windy, milder, with a strong southwest flow, dry at first then rain along a fast-paced cold front, highs around 13 C until colder air arrives, winds veering westerly. Potential for wind gusts over 100 km/hr with this so we'll be keeping a close eye on how it actually develops as the lead time of 7-8 days is too large to be overly confident of details yet. This system picks up some of the energy from hurricane Tammy which will loop around near Bermuda on the weekend to get into position to merge with strong low pressure coming out of eastern Canada.
Further fast paced frontal waves are expected to follow, one of which could include remnants of another tropical system expected to be near Florida in about a week to ten days' time.
My local weather was cold with passing snow showers, little accumulation at my elevation but snow visible on nearby hilltops. Daytime temperatures were around 4 C and it's now -2 C.
In southern Mexico Pacific hurricane Otis unexpectedly blew up to cat-5 and is currently making a landfall over Acapulco; catastrophic flood, surge and wind damage are expected.
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Thursday, 26 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather unsettled with frequent rain, but all elements fairly close to seasonal averages, south may see a bit more rain than other regions. Colder Sunday and early Monday, turning milder during following few days peaking around 2nd November and becoming very windy. (confidence low to moderate at present, watch continued for storm potential early Nov, now looks to be stronger around 4th as first wave shows signs of diving south. )
FORECASTS
TODAY frequent showers, heavy at times in south, rather breezy from the southwest at least near exposed coasts, and highs 12 to 14 C.
TONIGHT overcast with rain or showers, lows 7 to 9 C.
FRIDAY further outbreaks of rain, breezy, and highs near 13 C.
SATURDAY widespread intermittent rain, and a few intervals of heavy rain in southeast by afternoon and evening although it appears heaviest rain will head for south Wales and southwest England, rainfall showery further north, lows near 9 C and highs 11 to 13 C.
SUNDAY turning a bit colder in north and west, with winds gradually turning to northeast (40-60 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of north and northwest). A few showers and brighter intervals. Lows 5 to 7 C and highs 7 to 10 C, coldest inland northern counties. Variable cloud in south and east, showers, lows 6 to 8 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, showers or intervals of rain likely, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY (2 Nov) potentially quite windy, heavy rain possible especially in south. Latest guidance takes a strong low south towards Biscay and southwest France, but watch continues for potential storm in Ireland as guidance could be in a flip-flop state at present. If the low does track south, highs around 9 to 11 C, but still potential for milder readings (12-14 C) in any strong southwest flow.
Part of the uncertainty in this period is due to erratic track of Tammy, already losing tropical characteristics, and likely to wander around in various parts of the central Atlantic; guidance now estimates it will not phase with 1-2 Nov low, and energy could be transferred to 3-4 Nov system which could therefore become stronger.
My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy and very cold with a few snow showers, 3-5 cm reported in nearby passes, trace to 1 cm around town. Temperatures were only able to rise to -1 or so, and are down to -3 C now despite no clearing trend yet. A vigorous storm is forming to our south but will be headed for the upper Great Lakes region by Friday, clearing our skies. Very warm air now covers most of central and eastern regions of U.S. and parts of Ontario and Quebec.
Reports of widespread damage are slowly coming in from Acapulco but a clear picture of total damage and casualties will not be known for at least a day or two as communications were badly disrupted. Otis has basically dissipated over central Mexico after dropping a lot of rain over regions west of Mexico City.
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Friday, 27 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather unsettled with frequent rain, but all elements fairly close to seasonal averages, south may see a bit more rain than other regions. Colder Sunday and early Monday, turning milder during following few days,
FORECASTS
TODAY partly cloudy to overcast, further outbreaks of rain, breezy, and highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT overcast with rain or showers, lows 8 to 11 C.
SATURDAY widespread intermittent rain, and a few intervals of heavy rain in southeast by afternoon and evening, potential for 20-30 mm, closer to 10 mm in rest of country, as rainfall will be showery further north, lows near 9 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
SUNDAY turning a bit colder in north and west, with winds gradually turning to northeast (40-60 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of north and northwest). A few showers and brighter intervals. Lows 5 to 7 C and highs 7 to 10 C, coldest inland northern counties. Variable cloud in south and east, showers, lows 6 to 8 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, showers or intervals of rain likely, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Possible stormy conditions by Tuesday evening.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C. Possibly quite windy depending on evolution of complex low pressure system in vicinity of south coast.
THURSDAY (2 Nov) also potentially quite windy, heavy rain possible especially in south. highs around 9 to 12 C.
Gradually turning a bit colder in easterly winds from Saturday 4th on, with less frequent rain and a chance of night frosts.
My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and very cold, with light snow all day, now leaving a coating of 2-3 cm, temperatures steady in a range of -2 to zero C. Clearing skies are stalled out just to our north, once the developing storm to our southeast begins to track east, it will clear and readings will drop to -5 C or lower. A very gradual warming trend will set in around Saturday as cold air sinks into central regions of U.S.
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Saturday, 28 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather unsettled with frequent rain, but all elements fairly close to seasonal averages, south may see a bit more rain than other regions. Colder Sunday and early Monday, turning milder during following few days, possibly windy or even stormy around end of week.
FORECASTS
TODAY widespread intermittent rain, and a few intervals of heavy rain in southeast by afternoon and evening, potential for 20-30 mm, closer to 10 mm in rest of country, as rainfall will be showery further north, highs 11 to 14 C.
TONIGHT overcast with rain, drizzle and fog, lows 7 to 9 C. Winds gradually backing to east or northeast, at least in northern regions.
SUNDAY turning a bit colder in north and west, with winds gradually turning to northeast (40-60 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of north and northwest). A few showers and brighter intervals. Lows 5 to 7 C and highs 7 to 10 C, coldest inland northern counties. Variable cloud in south and east, showers, lows 6 to 8 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, showers or intervals of rain likely, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Possible stormy conditions by Tuesday evening.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C. Possibly quite windy depending on evolution of complex low pressure system in vicinity of south coast. Potential for strong wind gusts from southwest in parts of west Munster if not also further north.
THURSDAY also potentially quite windy, heavy rain possible especially in south. highs around 9 to 12 C.
Latest guidance shows further unsettled and possibly stormy intervals.
My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a few breaks, after an overnight snowfall of 2-5 cm that is still on the ground tonight after highs of only around 1 C; currently clear skies and -7 C here. A full moon is closing in on very bright Jupiter. Although I would be pessimistic about any breaks in cloud for your viewing tonight, they would be very close around midnight, I'll likely see them again under clear skies Saturday evening here. Continued very warm in eastern regions of U.S., 28 C at Washington DC on Friday.
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Sunday, 29 October, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather cloudy, frequent rain, heaviest in Connacht where totals may amount to 50 per cent above average, otherwise closer to normal; temperatures near or slightly above normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY will bring frequent rain and moderate east winds at times to northern counties and to most of Connacht. In Leinster and Munster, generally partly cloudy with passing showers, in a slack wind gradient, winds there will be variable. Highs 10-12 C north, and 12-14 C south.
TONIGHT will be foggy with drizzle in northern and some central counties, partly to mostly cloudy and misty further south with a few isolated showers, lows 6 to 8 C.
MONDAY will bring showers turning to intervals of rain over southern counties, variable cloud and more isolated showers further north, rather cool with highs 9 to 11 C.
TUESDAY will start out dry with breaks in the overcast but an Atlantic frontal system will move in from the southwest bringing showers and outbreaks of heavier rain by evening in an increasing southerly wind reaching 50-80 km/hr by evening. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY as the first system weakens, another potentially stronger low will be moving towards the southeast coast, exact details may change closer to this time frame, but for now we will say windy with occasional rain in most southern counties, variable cloud and showers further north. The late Wednesday system could bring very strong winds to parts of southern Britain and northwest France, at the moment the chance of this expanding to southeastern Ireland would be perhaps one in three. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY windy and cool with outbreaks of rain or drizzle, west to northwest winds 40-70 km/hr (possibly a lot stronger if the Wednesday forecast upgrades), lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.
FRIDAY is timing of yet another powerful Atlantic storm, this one being further out has a wider range of outcomes and already looks quite likely to bring strong winds to at least some southern counties if not most of Ireland, with potential for 20-30 mm rainfalls. Details on this one will no doubt require a few more days and will depend on how the earlier storm opportunity evolves. Temperatures would likely be in the 7-10 C range.
WEEKEND of 4-5 November looks rather cold and windy in the wake of the train of storms, winds generally northwesterly 50-70 km/hr, sleety showers on hills and cold rain showers or hail showers lower down. Highs only 6-8 C. Nights will not see frosts as cloud will keep temperatures almost the same for lows (3-5 C).
More active weather seems likely after this brief colder interlude, and temperatures will be a bit higher again in the following week, with at least two active frontal systems and heavy rain and strong wind potential (for 6-10 Nov and weekend of 11-12 Nov).
My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a sharp morning frost, highs around -1 C at our elevation and +3C in the nearby and lower Columbia valley. Currently clear and a "bone chilling" -7 C, good view of a very close conjunction of Jupiter and the full moon. It remained very warm in eastern regions of the U.S., records fell unless stations were operating way back in 1919 when it was slightly warmer (NYC for example was 26 C today and 28 C in 1919).
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Monday, 30 October, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather cloudy, frequent rain, heaviest in south where totals may amount to 50 to 100 per cent above average, otherwise closer to normal; temperatures near or slightly above normal; stormy at times from midweek, strong east to northeast winds expected.
FORECASTS
TODAY will bring showers turning to intervals of rain over southern counties, variable cloud and more isolated showers further north, rather cool with highs 10 to 12 C.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few isolated showers, lows 3 to 6 C.
TUESDAY will start out dry with breaks in the overcast but an Atlantic frontal system will move in from the southwest bringing showers and outbreaks of heavier rain by evening in an increasing southerly wind reaching 50-80 km/hr by evening. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY will bring variable cloud and showers, moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C. Storm Ciaran will approach by evening and overnight strong northeast winds and heavy rainfalls are expected in parts of the south and east.
THURSDAY windy and cool with further outbreaks of rain or drizzle, 30-50 mm rain from early morning to mid-day in south and southeast coastal counties, early morning winds northeast to north 60-100 km/hr and 40-70 km/hr north to northwest over rest of country, lasting all day, with occasional rain or local hail showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C. If Ciaran intensifies further or tracks any further north, these details could change to extend stormy conditions into central and southwest counties where so far impacts are assessed as more moderate.
FRIDAY continued windy and cool with occasional rain or drizzle, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Another powerful Atlantic storm is expected to track to the south of Ireland on Friday night but could eventually have a greater impact too, if it tracks closer to southeastern coastal counties than currently depicted; in any case Friday night into SATURDAY likely to remain wet and windy, lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C.
WEEKEND of 4-5 November looks rather cold and windy in the wake of the train of storms, assuming the second storm (as yet un-named) does not slow down or veer further north, which we should keep in mind is entirely possible. If forecast track is now correct, weekend of 4-5 Nov will be windy, generally northwesterly 50-70 km/hr, with sleety showers on hills and cold rain showers or hail showers lower down. Highs only 6-8 C. Nights will not see frosts as cloud will keep temperatures almost the same for lows (3-5 C).
More active weather seems likely after this brief colder interlude, and temperatures could be a bit higher again in the following week, with at least two active frontal systems and heavy rain and strong wind potential (for 6-10 Nov and weekend of 11-12 Nov).
My local weather on Sunday stayed sunny and cold again, about the same as the previous day, and highs were around +1 C. Currently back down to around -8 C and clear. This air mass will modify over next two days and return us to seasonal averages near 8 to 10 C by day and -2 C at night. The warm spell is ending in eastern regions of the U.S. from north to south and will be entirely gone by later today.
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Tuesday, 31 October, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather cloudy, frequent rain, heaviest in south where totals may amount to 50 to 100 per cent above average, otherwise closer to normal; temperatures near or slightly above normal; stormy at times from midweek, strong east to northeast winds expected.
FORECASTS
TODAY, apart from some downpours affecting eastern Ulster (20-30 mm rain), it will start out dry with breaks in the overcast but an Atlantic frontal system will move in from the southwest bringing showers and outbreaks of heavier rain by evening in an increasing southerly wind reaching 40-70 km/hr by evening; highs 11 to 13 C.
TONIGHT rain will be heavy at times, winds southerly 40 to 60 km/hr with lows 7 to 10 C.
WEDNESDAY will bring variable cloud and further showers, moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr, backing to south and then southeast by evening, and highs near 12 C. Storm Ciaran will approach by evening and overnight strong northeast winds and heavy rainfalls are expected in parts of the south and east.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT rain and strong northeast winds 50 to 80 km/hr across south coast counties and parts of east and inland southeast; 30-60 mm rain potential raises flooding concerns, lows around 7 C. Further north, cloudy with occasional rain or drizzle, winds northeast to northerly at 40-70 km/hr, 10-30 mm rain likely. This storm will develop explosively south of Ireland and could have a disruptive effect on England, Wales and France by Thursday morning to mid-day. Ferry services are likely to be cancelled and some airline travel and ground transportation will be disrupted; if not directly in Ireland also, then due to the effects on regional transport.
THURSDAY windy and cool with further outbreaks of rain or drizzle, 30-50 mm rain from early morning to mid-day in south and southeast coastal counties, early morning winds northeast to north possibly reaching 60-100 km/hr and 40-70 km/hr north to northwest over rest of country, lasting all day, with occasional rain or local hail showers, lows near 7 C and highs 9 to 11 C. If Ciaran intensifies further or tracks any further north, these details could change to extend stormy conditions into central and southwest counties where so far impacts are assessed as more moderate, but it seems likely that England and France will see the strongest winds from Ciaran.
FRIDAY continued windy and cool with occasional rain or drizzle, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Some settled intervals before another powerful Atlantic storm is expected to track to the south of Ireland on Friday night and it could eventually have a greater impact too, if it tracks closer to southeastern coastal counties than currently depicted or inland; in any case Friday night into SATURDAY are likely to remain wet and windy at least in south and central counties, lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C, winds northeast to north 40-60 km/hr (or stronger if storm proves stronger).
The rest of WEEKEND of 4-5 November looks rather cold and windy in the wake of the train of storms, assuming the second storm (as yet un-named) does not slow down or veer further north, which we should keep in mind is entirely possible. If forecast track is now correct, weekend of 4-5 Nov will be windy, generally northwesterly 50-70 km/hr, with sleety showers on hills and cold rain showers or hail showers lower down. Highs only 6-8 C. Nights will not see frosts as cloud will keep temperatures almost the same for lows (3-5 C).
More active weather seems likely after this brief colder interlude, and temperatures could be a bit higher again in the following week, with at least two active frontal systems and heavy rain and strong wind potential (for 6-10 Nov and weekend of 11-12 Nov). Guidance keeps shifting around on details for week, and is considered "low confidence."
My local weather on Monday stayed sunny and cold to late afternoon and was partly cloudy since, with highs recovering to around 5 C, likely to be 10-12 C next few days. The first stages of storm Ciaran are now passing south of Newfoundland, and about to be swept up into a strong gale stationary near Iceland. When that feature begins to extend southeast on Wednesday, Ciaran will be hurled around its outer edges and computer models predict it will then deepen explosively around 200 kms s.w. of Cork on its way to a landfall in southwest England around 0600 Thursday. It is expected to deepen to a record low value (for that region) around 948 to 950 mbs. The second low expected by early Saturday also deepens to around 955 mbs but so far guidance does not produce strong wind gradients as that low hits the low pressure field in the region, left over from Ciaran.
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Wednesday, 1 November, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather cloudy, frequent rain, heaviest in south where totals may amount to 25 to 50 per cent above average, otherwise closer to normal; temperatures near or slightly above normal; stormy conditions are so far expected to bypass south coast and head towards southern England, but there will be some moderate northeast winds on Thursday, and possibly again on Saturday.
FORECASTS
TODAY will bring variable cloud and further showers, moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr, backing to south by afternoon and then southeast by evening, and highs near 12 C. A few blustery showers will quickly cross southern and eastern counties this morning, isolated thunder and hail possible. Storm Ciarán will approach by late evening and overnight, strong northeast winds and significant rainfalls are expected in parts of the south and east.
TONIGHT rain and strong northeast winds 50 to 80 km/hr across south coast counties and parts of east and inland southeast; wit Ciarán on a southerly track, 20-35 mm rain potential still raises some flooding concerns, lows around 7 C. Further north, cloudy with occasional rain or drizzle, winds northeast to northerly at 40-70 km/hr, 10-20 mm rain likely. This storm will develop explosively south of Ireland and could have a disruptive effect on England, Wales and France by Thursday morning to mid-day. Ferry services are likely to be cancelled and some airline travel and ground transportation will be disrupted; if not directly in Ireland also, then due to the effects on regional transport.
THURSDAY windy and cool with further outbreaks of rain or drizzle, 30-50 mm rain from early morning to mid-day in south and southeast coastal counties, early morning winds northeast to north possibly reaching 60-90 km/hr and 40-70 km/hr north to northwest over rest of country, lasting all day, with occasional rain or local hail showers, lows near 7 C and highs 9 to 11 C. Ciarán will likely be bringing dangerous wind gusts to both sides of the Channel all day, and heavy rains to parts of England and Wales.
FRIDAY continued windy and cool with occasional rain or drizzle, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Some settled intervals before another deep Atlantic storm is expected to track to the south of Ireland on Friday night and Saturday, and it could eventually have a greater impact too, if it tracks closer to southeastern coastal counties than currently depicted, or inland; in any case Friday night into SATURDAY are likely to remain wet and breezy to windy at least in south and central counties, lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C, winds northeast to north 40-60 km/hr (or stronger if storm proves stronger). Again, guidance for this event is not upgrading for Ireland so far.
The rest of WEEKEND of 4-5 November looks rather cold and windy in the wake of the train of storms, assuming the second storm (as yet un-named) does not slow down or veer further north, which we should keep in mind is entirely possible.
If forecast track is now correct, SUNDAY 5 Nov will be breezy to windy and cold, winds generally northwesterly 50-70 km/hr, with sleety showers on hills and cold rain showers or hail showers lower down. Highs only 6-8 C.
MONDAY will continue windy and cool with showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 6-8 C.
TUESDAY will bring in another rather active frontal system, with blustery and squally conditions, highs near 9 C.
More active weather seems likely for rest of next week too, with cool temperatures a bit below average at times.
My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and cool, with a high around 5 C.
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I will be keeping a close eye on developments, if there are changes requiring an alert for Irish weather then I will post again this evening.
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Thursday, 2 November, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Rather cloudy, occasional rain, heaviest in southeast where totals may now amount to near average, relatively dry in north and west; temperatures near or slightly below normal; moderate northeast winds on Saturday turning to northwesterly later in weekend.
FORECASTS
TODAY breezy to windy and cool with further outbreaks of rain or drizzle, a large portion already fell during the night and it was relatively light, as storm Ciarán is pulling in bands of moisture located east of Wicklow now, and secondary bands over western counties leading to a few squally showers in northwest winds 40-70 km/hr, stronge. Sunny intervals will develop in parts of the central and western counties; variable cloud and isolated showers increasing in coverage by afternoon across Ulster as Ciarán pulls in a weaker low currently northwest of Donegal, bringing its weaker circulation of cloud and rainfall into Connacht and west Ulster by later afternoon, highs generally 9 to 11 C. Ciarán will likely continue to bring dangerous wind gusts to both sides of the Channel all day, and heavy rains to parts of England and Wales. Gusts to 190 km/hr have already hit Brittany, and 160 km/hr in Channel Islands and Normandy; 120-140 km/hr possible in southern England during rest of day. Despite relatively tranquil conditions in Ireland, regional transportation will be severely affected in some cases.
TONIGHT variable cloud, a few showers, lows 4 to 7 C.
FRIDAY continued windy and cool with occasional rain or drizzle, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Some settled intervals before another deep Atlantic storm is expected to track to the south of Ireland on Friday night and Saturday, so becoming wet and breezy to windy at least in south and central counties, lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C, winds northeast to north 40-60 km/hr (or possibly stronger if storm proves stronger). Again, guidance for this event is not upgrading for Ireland so far. About 10-15 mm rainfall can be expected in south.
The rest of WEEKEND of 4-5 November looks rather cold and windy in the wake of the train of storms, assuming the second storm (as yet un-named) does not slow down or veer further north, which we should keep in mind is entirely possible.
If forecast track is now correct, SUNDAY 5 Nov will be breezy to windy and cold, winds generally northwesterly 50-70 km/hr, with sleety showers on hills and cold rain showers or hail showers lower down. Lows 3 to 5 C and highs only 7-9 C.
MONDAY will continue windy and cool with showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7-10 C.
TUESDAY will bring in another rather active frontal system, with blustery and squally conditions, highs near 9 C.
More active weather seems likely for rest of next week too, with cool temperatures a bit below average at times.
My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy to overcast, misty with a high around 8 C.
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Friday, 3 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will remain seasonably cool and breezy with frequent rain after today's pause of mainly dry weather. Rainfall amounts may be slightly above normal in south and west by end of week, and somewhat below average in east and north, in a mostly westerly flow that is sometimes rather strong.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times in north, with a generally dry regime but a few showers or intervals of drizzle in parts of Connacht and Ulster mainly. Highs 8 to 11 C.
TONIGHT increasing cloud, rain after midnight in southwest, otherwise dry to near sunrise as rain spreads slowly north and east. Winds becoming moderate to strong east-northeast 50-70 km/hr with potential for gusts to 90 km/hr in exposed coastal locations. Lows 2 to 5 C.
SATURDAY windy and cool with further rainfalls of 10-20 mm across southern and central counties, winds northeast backing to north and then northwest 50-80 km/hr. Generally less rain with pockets of dry conditions likely in north. A few sunny breaks in Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 8-10 C.
SUNDAY windy and cool, winds northwest backing to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, a few showers in western counties, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 11 C.
MONDAY windy and cool with occasional rain, winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, windy with showers, heavy rain by late in the day, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with rain heavy at times to mid-day, easing to showers, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C. Rainfalls about 15-30 mm in most areas.
This unsettled, breezy to windy regime will continue, with another strong frontal system and briefly strong south to southwest winds timed for weekend of 11th-12th.
My local weather on Thursday began with a heavy wet snowfall of about 5-7 cms, turning to light rain by sunrise and then foggy and cool all day, little snowmelt but a lot of slush and slippery conditions, with highs only about 1 or 2 C.
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Saturday, 4 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will remain seasonably cool and breezy with frequent rain. Rainfall amounts may be slightly above normal in south and west by end of week, and closer to average in east and north, in a mostly westerly flow that is sometimes rather strong.
FORECASTS
TODAY breezy to windy and cool with further rainfalls of 10-20 mm across southern and central counties, winds northeast backing to north and then northwest 50-80 km/hr. Generally less rain with pockets of dry conditions likely in north. A few sunny breaks in Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 8-10 C.
TONIGHT variable cloud, a few outbreaks of rain, heavier in western coastal counties, winds west-northwest 50-70 km/hr and lows 3 to 6 C.
SUNDAY windy and cool, winds northwest backing to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, a few showers in western counties, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 11 C.
MONDAY windy and cool with occasional rain, winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, windy with showers, heavy rain by late in the day, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with rain heavy at times to mid-day, easing to showers, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C. Rainfalls about 15-30 mm in most areas.
This unsettled, breezy to windy regime will continue, with another strong frontal system and briefly strong south to southwest winds timed for weekend of 11th-12th. There could be intervals of very strong southwest winds, and temperatures may rise to 12-15 C at times. Potential for heavy rainfalls to develop from Cork into midlands. It will return to a more average temperature regime in renewed unsettled westerly flow after the weekend.
My local weather on Friday was overcast and snow was slowly melting but that led to fog and cool readings of 3-4 C. Where snow had not fallen lower down it was 7-9 C. Storm Domingos (named by Spanish met service) is bringing gusty winds to northern Spain, and later into south of France. Today's rain is associated as the low is very close to the south coast of Ireland. Fortunately the previous event left behind a generally low pressure field so this rather deep low (958 mbs) is not a lot deeper and gradient winds are moderate at worst.
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Sunday, 5 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will remain seasonably cool and breezy with occasional rain. Rainfall amounts may be slightly above normal in south and west by end of week, and 75% to 100% of average in east and north, in a mostly westerly flow that is sometimes rather strong. Cloudy skies will be even more frequent than usual for this time of year but sunshine only needs to average 2.5 hours a day to keep pace with normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy and cool, winds northwest backing to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, a few showers in western counties, feeding across central counties at times by afternoon; highs 8 to 11 C. Also a few brighter intervals will develop.
TONIGHT breezy to windy, a few outbreaks of rain, winds west-northwest 50 to 70 km/hr and lows 3 to 6 C.
MONDAY windy and cool with occasional rain, winds westerly 60 to 80 km/hr, and highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, a few sunny breaks, isolated showers, heavy rain by late in the day, winds increasing by evening to southwest 70 to 100 km/hr, lows 3 to 6 C and highs near 11 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with rain heavy at times to mid-day, easing to showers, some with hail and thunder, blustery winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, lows 6 to 9 C and highs 9 to 11 C. Rainfalls about 15-30 mm in most areas.
THURSDAY will be windy and quite cold with frequent hail showers, possible sleet on higher terrain, winds west to northwest 70 to 110 k /hr, lows near 2 C and highs 6 to 8 C.
FRIDAY a few sunny intervals after scattered light frosts, and a break in the strong winds, lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6 to 10 C.
This unsettled, breezy to windy regime will continue, with another strong frontal system and briefly strong south to southwest winds timed for weekend of 11th-12th. There could be intervals of very strong southwest winds, and temperatures may rise to 12-15 C at times. Potential for heavy rainfalls to develop from Cork into midlands. It will return to a more average temperature regime in renewed unsettled westerly flow after the weekend, with signals for a very windy interval around 14th-15th.
My local weather on Saturday was so nasty that we stayed in all day, quite unusual in our routine. It was raining, foggy and about 2 or 3 C all day and is continuing a very slow warming trend, with less fog and no rain this evening finally. Looks like a fairly bland weather pattern for us all week, as temperatures will be close to average, for us average is around 7 C by day and -2 C early morning lows. We are now going back on to "standard time" in most parts of N America (a few places stay on standard time all year, SK on central and Arizona on mountain time). Reason being they are far enough west in those zones that there was never a public support for the annual time change.
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Monday, 6 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... temperatures will slowly increase later in the week, and will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above normal. Rainfall amounts may be slightly above normal in south and west by end of week, and 75% to 100% of average in east and north, in a mostly westerly flow that is sometimes rather strong. Cloudy skies will be even more frequent than usual for this time of year but sunshine only needs to average 2.5 hours a day to keep pace with normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy and cool with occasional rain, winds westerly 60 to 80 km/hr, and highs near 10 C.
TONIGHT breezy and cloudy with a few clear intervals towards dawn, isolated showers dying out, cool, lows 3 to 6 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, a few sunny breaks, isolated showers, heavy rain by late in the day, winds moderate during day but increasing by evening to southwest 70 to 100 km/hr, lows 3 to 6 C and highs near 11 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with rain heavy at times from early morning to mid-day, easing to showers, some with hail and thunder, blustery winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, lows 6 to 9 C and highs 9 to 11 C. Rainfalls about 15-30 mm in most areas.
THURSDAY will be windy and quite cold with frequent hail showers, possibly turning to sleet on higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, lows near 2 C and highs 6 to 8 C.
FRIDAY a few sunny intervals after scattered light frosts, with a break in the strong winds, lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6 to 10 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud, rain becoming heavy by late in the day, winds increasing to southwest 60-90 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C, highs 10 to 13 C.
SUNDAY windy and mild with rain at times, lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.
Following days will remain very unsettled and possibly stormy with strong southwest winds around late Monday 13th-Tuesday 14th and a second disturbance possibly bringing heavy rain on the next two days.
My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with brighter intervals in the afternoon, and milder, highs near 8 C. Recent snow is now largely melted.
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Tuesday, 7 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... temperatures will slowly increase later in the week, and will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above normal. Rainfall amounts may be slightly above normal in south and west by end of week, and 75% to 100% of average in east and north, in a mostly westerly flow that is sometimes rather strong. Cloudy skies will be even more frequent than usual for this time of year but sunshine only needs to average 2.5 hours a day to keep pace with normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY sunny intervals followed by variable cloud, isolated showers, and heavy rain developing by late in the day, winds moderate during day but increasing by evening to southwest 70 to 100 km/hr in exposed locations, 40 to 70 inland, after highs near 11 C.
TONIGHT windy with rain spreading into all regions, winds south to southwest 70 to 100 km/hr, partial clearing in west towards morning, lows around 6 to 9 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with rain heavy at times from early morning to mid-day, easing to showers, some with hail and thunder, blustery winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, lows 6 to 9 C and highs 9 to 11 C. Rainfalls about 15-30 mm in most areas.
THURSDAY will be windy and quite cold with frequent hail showers, possibly turning to sleet on higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, lows near 2 C and highs 6 to 8 C.
FRIDAY a few sunny intervals after scattered light frosts, with a break in the strong winds, lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6 to 10 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud, following scattered frosts in north and east, rain arriving in southwest by afternoon, becoming heavy by late in the day, as it spreads rapidly across other regions; winds increasing to southwest 60-90 km/hr. Lows -2 to 5 C, highs 10 to 13 C.
SUNDAY windy and mild with rain at times, lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.
Following days will remain very unsettled and possibly stormy with strong southwest winds around Tuesday 14th and a second disturbance possibly bringing heavy rain within the next few days. This pattern of alternating mild, wet days and cooler, partly cloudy and showery days, will continue into the following week also.
My local weather on Monday was overcast and foggy with rain occasionally turning to wet snow or sleet, no real ground cover but wet slush on colder surfaces, and highs near 3 C. We will have the dregs of this developing prairie clipper low with us to late Tuesday then a few clear and cool days to follow.
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Wednesday, 8 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... temperatures will slowly increase later in the week, and will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above normal. Rainfall amounts may be slightly above normal in south and west, and 75% to 100% of average in east and north, in a mostly westerly flow that is sometimes rather strong. Near average sunshine only needs to be around 2.5 hours a day to keep pace with normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy with passing showers, some with hail and thunder, blustery winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed locations, 50 to 80 km/hr inland, and highs 9 to 11 C.
TONIGHT breezy and cool with occasional rain and winds southwest 40 to 70 km/r, lows 3 to 6 C.
THURSDAY will be windy and quite cold with frequent hail showers and some thunder, possibly turning to sleet on higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, quite strong on Atlantic coasts by afternoon, and highs 6 to 8 C. The strong winds will ease gradually overnight into Friday morning.
FRIDAY a few sunny intervals after scattered light frosts, with a break in the strong winds by later morning, still a fresh northwest breeze likely, with isolated showers between sunny spells, lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6 to 10 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud, following scattered frosts in north and east, rain arriving in southwest by afternoon, becoming heavy by late in the day, as it spreads rapidly across other regions; easterly winds increasing and veering around to south, then southwest reaching 60-90 km/hr. Lows -2 in north and east, to 5 C south and west, highs 10 to 13 C by evening but daytime readings about 6-8 C in most places.
SUNDAY windy and mild at least in south and west, cooler east winds could push back the boundary and allow parts of east and north to stay cooler, all areas with rain at times, lows 5 to 8 C and highs near 12 C in south and west but possibly only 8 C in north and east.
MONDAY will become milder in north and east, with further rainfalls, becoming windy, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.
TUESDAY (15th) variable cloud, rain at times, quite windy towards evening, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.
This disturbance will rotate around near Ireland before drifting away later Wednesday (16th). Cool and windy for rest of next week, as very strong lows develop in the west-central Atlantic and track towards Iceland. So far it looks like strongest winds from these will be out over the ocean but keeping an eye on how they develop. Also some guidance begins to develop colder air masses to east and north later in the period and some more wintry scenarios are possible eventually.
My local weather on Tuesday saw an end to a weak disturbance now tracking into Dakotas, with our skies gradually clearing partially, as a result a bit milder with highs near 7 C.
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Thursday, 9 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... temperatures will slowly increase later in the week, and will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above normal. Rainfall amounts may be slightly above normal in south and west, and 75% to 100% of average in east and north, in a mostly westerly flow that is sometimes rather strong. Near average sunshine only needs to be around 2.5 hours a day to keep pace with normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be windy and quite cold with frequent hail showers and some thunder, possibly turning to sleet on higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, quite strong on Atlantic coasts by afternoon, and highs 6 to 8 C.
TONIGHT further showers, strong winds slowly easing across south, with generally westerly winds 50 to 70 km/r, except 70 to 90 km/hr in west Munster until after midnight, lows -1 to 3 C.
FRIDAY a few sunny intervals after scattered light frosts, with a break in the strong winds by later morning, still a fresh northwest breeze likely, with isolated showers between sunny spells, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 6 to 10 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud, following scattered frosts in north and east, rain arriving in southwest by afternoon, becoming heavy by late in the day, as it spreads rapidly across other regions; easterly winds increasing and veering around to south, then southwest reaching 60-90 km/hr. Lows -2 in north and east, to 5 C south and west, highs 10 to 13 C by evening but daytime readings about 6-8 C in most places.
SUNDAY windy and mild at least in south and west, cooler east winds could push back the boundary and allow parts of east and north to stay cooler, all areas with rain at times, lows 5 to 8 C and highs near 12 C in south and west but possibly only 8 C in north and east.
MONDAY will become milder in north and east, with further rainfalls, becoming windy, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, rain at times, quite windy at times, details yet to be "nailed down" but strong gusts are quite possible across south and west during the day, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.
This disturbance will rotate around near Ireland before drifting away later Wednesday. Cool and windy for rest of next week, as very strong lows develop in the west-central Atlantic and track towards Iceland. So far it looks like strongest winds from these will be out over the ocean but keeping an eye on how they develop.
My local weather on Wednesday was cool with fog from a low cloud layer that the sun was trying to remove without much success, highs near 4 C.
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Friday, 10 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will be close to average for mid-November although probably a little milder than normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY strong westerly winds near south coast for a few hours this morning will soon abate, and most regions will have partly cloudy to sunny skies, with a few showers in Connacht and Ulster, highs 8 to 11 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals except cloudy in west Munster, scattered frosts inland and lows -2 to +4 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud during morning, overcast later, rain slowly pushing into west Munster by evening. Highs 7 to 10 C.
SUNDAY breezy and milder, occasional rain, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
TUESDAY cloudy with rain, possibly heavy across south, risk of strong winds although storm track so far looks to be close to southeast coast and so moderate east backing to north winds could be expected. If this system shifts north, it could bring strong southwest winds as it currently appears set to do for southern England and northern France. Lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.
WEDNESDAY breezy and rather cold with passing showers, some with hail and thunder, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, lows near 2 C and highs 7 to 9 C.
FRIDAY some dry intervals and mostly cloudy, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Rain in west by late in the day.
The further outlook calls for rather windy conditions at times as strong Atlantic lows track towards Iceland but they are large and powerful enough to spread outer bands of rain and stronger winds into Ireland at times. It looks like one more Atlantic tropical storm or even hurricane could form near Cuba in about a week and remnants of that could be among this constant parade of strong lows later in the month. For the time being, colder air masses are shown confined to home base in Scandinavia and western Russia.
My local weather on Thursday was once again foggy with the sun trying to poke holes in the blanket of low cloud (the cloud base was a bit lower than our elevation so we had mist and fog clouds moving upslope through local valleys). It stayed quite cold without the sun, at about 5 C, and light snow has just begun as a strong Pacific storm hit the coast earlier today. Friday, 10 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will be close to average for mid-November although probably a little milder than normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY strong westerly winds near south coast for a few hours this morning will soon abate, and most regions will have partly cloudy to sunny skies, with a few showers in Connacht and Ulster, highs 8 to 11 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals except cloudy in west Munster, scattered frosts inland and lows -2 to +4 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud during morning, overcast later, rain slowly pushing into west Munster by evening. Highs 7 to 10 C.
SUNDAY breezy and milder, occasional rain, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
TUESDAY cloudy with rain, possibly heavy across south, risk of strong winds although storm track so far looks to be close to southeast coast and so moderate east backing to north winds could be expected. If this system shifts north, it could bring strong southwest winds as it currently appears set to do for southern England and northern France. Lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.
WEDNESDAY breezy and rather cold with passing showers, some with hail and thunder, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, lows near 2 C and highs 7 to 9 C.
FRIDAY some dry intervals and mostly cloudy, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Rain in west by late in the day.
The further outlook calls for rather windy conditions at times as strong Atlantic lows track towards Iceland but they are large and powerful enough to spread outer bands of rain and stronger winds into Ireland at times. It looks like one more Atlantic tropical storm or even hurricane could form near Cuba in about a week and remnants of that could be among this constant parade of strong lows later in the month. For the time being, colder air masses are shown confined to home base in Scandinavia and western Russia.
My local weather on Thursday was once again foggy with the sun trying to poke holes in the blanket of low cloud (the cloud base was a bit lower than our elevation so we had mist and fog clouds moving upslope through local valleys). It stayed quite cold without the sun, at about 5 C, and light snow has just begun as a strong Pacific storm hit the coast earlier today.
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Saturday, 10 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will be close to average for mid-November although probably a little milder than normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY frost and fog patches clearing, sunny intervals, then increasing cloud during mid-day and turning overcast later, rain slowly pushing into west Munster by evening. Highs 7 to 10 C.
TONIGHT rain slowly spreading further north and east, lows around 2 to 5 C in evening with a rising trend later.
SUNDAY breezy and milder, occasional rain, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy to windy, southwest 60-90 km/hr, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast with showers, heavy across parts of west, now looking like continued moderate southwesterly winds as more energy is being transferred to earlier low passing on Monday, lows near 5 C and highs 9 to 11 C. Dry intervals Tuesday night, winds easing briefly.
WEDNESDAY breezy to windy again, rain by afternoon and evening, winds southwesterly 50-80 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, lows near 2 C and highs 7 to 9 C. Clearing later, frosty overnight.
FRIDAY some dry intervals and becoming cloudy, lows -2 to 4 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Rain in west by late in the day.
WEEKEND of 18-19 NOV quite mild (possibly around 15 or 16 C) with south to southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr and possibly some outbreaks of heavy rain especially in western counties. This will need to be watched for flooding potential. The aforementioned tropical storm forming near Cuba around Wed 15th will eventually be part of this chain of disturbances. Later in the week of 20-24 Nov, further rainfalls will encounter resistance from developing high pressure over Scandinavia and it could be either a colder rainfall at times or even frontal bands of wintry mixtures, depending on how strong this colder high turns out to be.
My local weather on Friday started out with 3-5 cm of snow, and stayed overcast and cold all day with snow still present after highs only around 1 or 2 C. Expecting a sleety rain-snow mix later on Saturday.
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Sunday, 12 November, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: temperatures 1 to 2 deg above normal, rainfall near normal except locally 25-50 per cent above in northwest, sunshine near average.
FORECASTS
TODAY a band of rain marking a warm front will continue to drift further north, with 5-15 mm rainfalls associated. This will soon clear most of the south and west, leaving variable cloud and showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Milder after the front passes, highs 10 to 13 C for most, but staying closer to 7 to 9 C in parts of Ulster, north Leinster, north Connacht.
TONIGHT rain becoming heavy at times, especially over some parts of Connacht and west Ulster with 30-50 mm potential. Strong westerly winds could develop towards dawn as low pressure begins to deepen over western Ireland. Guidance for this event is still rather scattered and results could be anywhere from moderate west winds of 50-80 km/hr, to storm force gusts 110-130 km/hr for a brief interval around sunrise. An updated forecast will be issued and stay in touch with all forecast sources and discussions on this one. Overnight lows around 7 C.
MONDAY if the strong winds develop they will likely move very quickly east across north midlands into east Ulster and north, central Leinster by morning, and will then move off towards Isle of Man and northern England. The rest of the day will continue rather blustery, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr (after possibly stronger gusts) and passing showers, isolated thunderstorms, highs around 10 to 12 C.
TUESDAY breezy with passing showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
WEDNESDAY sunny intervals and increasing cloud later, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C, rain by late in the day, possibly another period of strong winds developing overnight into Thursday morning.
THURSDAY will be windy with rain tapering to showers, will speculate on wind speeds later in the forecast period but current guidance is once again over quite a large range for this event. Lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C.
FRIDAY into weekend of 18-19 November, mild and occasional bursts of heavy rain possible, highs 13 to 15 C. A more variable period will follow with the possibility of some colder days in the mix towards end of month.
My local weather on Saturday was overcast to mid-afternoon when it began to clear, and cold. Wet snow mixed with rain fell until about noon, leaving only a slushy coating; the ground is partly free from that snow and the earlier fall we had on Friday, with melt faster on dark coloured surfaces. It was only around 2 C all day and has dropped to -2 C now.
Watch for a forecast on the potential late overnight storm event, to appear around 8 p.m., hoping the various models come into a closer agreement as this windstorm would hit some areas around school and work opening times. I should add there's about a 40% chance it won't reach storm levels and just be a regular autumn blustery day scenario, which is how it could play out in parts of the south even if a localized windstorm does develop, as this system is quite small in scale and is just beginning to develop (if so) when it reaches Ireland around 0400h overnight.
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