Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Sponge Bob

maquiladora wrote: »

Hard to say, but Friday might have the longest dry spells.

Wrong , the correct answer was wednesday

maquiladora

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Wrong , the correct answer was wednesday

Thats why I said 'might' :P The wonderful Irish weather eh?

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 5 December, 2009
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TODAY will see some rain moving in from the southwest, but the morning may remain dry in eastern counties. It will be quite mild and misty or locally foggy, and eventually 15-25 mms of rain may fall. Winds will increase in western counties to about 25-45 mph from the south, and highs will generally reach 12 or 13 C.

TONIGHT will be showery and rather windy with lows of only 5-7 C, as winds veer to SW 20-35 mph.

SUNDAY will be somewhat cloudy and showery, with a few sunny intervals, and it will feel a bit colder in WSW winds of 20-30 mph. Highs will be 8-11 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will become quite windy and mild with periods of rain (possibly heavy in western counties), with highs near 12 C. Winds are currently not expected to become too strong, but will average 30-55 mph (the strong low well offshore will have 70 mph gusts or worse out over the open Atlantic).

The rest of the week should continue rather mild and showery, with highs around 10 C.

We had quite a cold but sunny day here on Friday; the highs were generally about 5 C and now it has dropped off to -1 C at 10:30 pm local time.

Redsunset

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=6638636001&title=Ireland: Weekend Flooding Concerns

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 6 December, 2009
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TODAY will be breezy and partly cloudy with some sunny intervals, and passing showers. One or two of these may become heavy with hail or thunder, but many places won't see that much intensity. Winds will average SW 20-35 mph, and highs will reach 9-11 C.

(added 0715h ... some thundershowers with hail are possible in the southwest this morning. Winds will continue to gust to about 50 mph on the west coast until afternoon.)

TONIGHT will become rather cold and unsettled with periods of rain or sleet developing, and snow on higher ground possible. Lows will fall to about 2-4 C but could briefly reach freezing in the northeast.

MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, and passing showers, still rather wintry in the north at times. It will feel colder than today with winds more westerly and highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY, the intense Atlantic storm is still being shown well offshore, so its effects will be somewhat of a glancing blow (we hope), with wind gusts to about 65 mph on the west coast at times (compared to perhaps 100 mph well out in the Atlantic). The rest of the country won't even be that windy, reaching 45-50 mph gusts, but there may be intervals of heavy rain from this storm's frontal systems as they rotate across Ireland, with highs to 10-12 C.

The rest of the week is looking like more of the same, southwest winds, fairly mild, occasional rain, and some sunny breaks, but towards the end of the week it looks more settled for a day or two, with the possibility of some frosts at night. There are sometimes indications of much colder air arriving around two weeks from now, something that would not be too surprising given the set-up around the hemisphere right now.

Meanwhile, we won't have to wait here, it is already quite cold at -2 C with a chilly east wind, the ground is bare but somewhat frozen and the entire day (Saturday) was sunny but some cloud and light snow is passing to our south from east to west and may catch us later tonight. Remember how it was 65 F in Washington DC on Thursday? Today some parts of that region had 3-5 inches of snow!

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 7 December, 2009
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TODAY ... This morning will see some persistent light rain, turning sleety over higher ground, then there should be some brighter intervals by afternoon with more scattered and isolated showers. Winds will veer from south to west and become rather gusty at times (20-40 mph). Highs will average 8-9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few showers, and rather mild with lows of about 4-6 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy (windy in northwest coastal districts) with periods of rain developing, heavier in the west. Highs will reach 10-12 C. Wind gusts will be generally from the SW at 40-50 mph at most, but could reach 65 mph in western Mayo and Galway.

WEDNESDAY will continue about the same with slightly less blustery SW winds, showers, and highs of about 9-11 C.

THURSDAY, a drying trend is likely to begin, with winds backing to southerly and falling off to lighter speeds, cloudy for most with some sunny breaks, and possibly some light rain or drizzle near the south coast. Highs will be around 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY and into the weekend, current indications show a rather cool, dry pattern with higher pressure building, and possible frosts developing at night, highs 5-7 C, and risk of persistent fog.

There are some indications in the longer term of even colder weather developing at times next week.

My weather on Sunday was clear and quite cold with a brisk east wind. The high was about 3 C but it felt more like -5 C. Winds were not too strong here but picked up speed out to the west of us and did some damage in Victoria, B.C. with gusts over there to 90 km/hr. We're expecting this cold spell to continue most of this week.

glimmerman123

Met Eireann are saying it is to turn a lot colder after next weekend with winds turning to a north- north easterly direction with severe frosts at night. Looks like we could be in for a long cold dry spell. No snow mentioned at the moment.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 9:20 p.m.
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Good thing the Atlantic storm decided to make a left turn a few degrees of longitude earlier than the models originally thought -- because it's already down to about 948 mbs and producing 70-100 mph winds out in the middle of the ocean. However, it's now heading more for Iceland than Ireland.

We're having another clear, cold day here, slight chill from an east wind of 10-20 mph, and -2 C at 1 p.m. local time. This cold air has moved as far south as central California and Nevada, where it's fuelling a strong low that will head for the Great Lakes region over the next two days, bringing a blizzard to the central and northern plains states and the upper Midwest. Chicago will be on the edge of this but further north they could see a foot of snow in the next two days, then the lake effect snow machine turns on when cold westerly winds sweep in behind the low. This storm will never get anywhere near Ireland, it's heading more for southern Greenland in about a week, as the European blocking high builds west.

Looks as though it will be colder tonight before 0200h than after, as the milder southwest winds begin to pick up and increase the cloud cover towards dawn. Some places could hit 2-3 C at some point around 0200h in counties north of Dublin. It will be milder than that elsewhere and by morning in all parts.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 8 December, 2009
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TODAY will be breezy with showery outbreaks of rain, generally rather light with 5-15 mms on average ... and some sunny breaks by afternoon especially in the west. Winds will pick up to reach SSW 30-45 mph in most regions and 40-60 mph near the west coast at times. (Much stronger winds will be found between 17 and 25 W as a deep storm heads north towards Iceland.)

Highs today will reach 11-13 C and this will probably be the mildest day in quite some time to come.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy and it will remain rather mild, with lows of about 4-7 C. Any showers will tend to be fairly light and brief in duration. Winds will settle back to SW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy but not too windy, partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers, and not quite as mild as today with highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY, expect a morning frost and some fog patches, icy sections on some roads in east central counties mostly, then weak sunshine or mist during the day, with lighter winds. Lows will be as cold as -1 C in some parts, but 2-5 C generally, and highs about 4-7 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY are currently looking cold and misty or foggy with sharp frosts at night, either low cloud or weak sunshine in the daytimes, and a temperature range from about -2 C to 6 C on average. In these spells, some central locations can be much colder, and some coastal spots can be a bit milder.

In the longer term, the models are suggesting a good chance of even colder weather arriving on east or northeast winds. This is not "carved in stone" yet but the build-up is typical, first with the Atlantic storm track dying out and then high pressure building up from the continent to the British Isles, but the final stage with higher pressure moving further west and north to direct a colder arctic flow is not guaranteed by any means, the high could just hang around and sink back into Europe, allowing a slight warming trend. I think the chances of a cold spell next week are rising to better than 50-50 now.

We had another cold, sunny day here but with slowly increasing high cloud. It was about 2-3 C by mid-afternoon (normal here is about 8 C). However, this is nothing compared to the intense cold in Alberta about 600 miles to the east of here, where for example Edmonton is about -25 C with a foot of snow on the ground, snow that fell a few days ago and froze solid apparently, so now it is very difficult to move and people are having to spend hours digging out their cars from their on-street parking. This very cold air is surging south into the central U.S. and interacting with strong low pressure near Denver Colorado to create the season's first big blizzard on the plains.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 9 December, 2009
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TODAY will be cloudy with some brief sunny breaks, and intervals of light rain scattered fairly widely, but somewhat heavier over eastern counties. Winds will continue SW 20-35 mph but by evening will back to SSE 15-30 mph with mist or light rain. Highs today will be near 10 C.

TONIGHT will see mist and fog after the evening rain, and there could be some icy sections by morning on rural roads and highways in eastern (inland) counties. Lows there could reach -2 C but otherwise more like 2-4 C.

THURSDAY will have a widespread frost followed by misty or foggy conditions in light winds, and a slow temperature rise to only 4-7 C in some inland sections; coastal districts are more likely to reach 6-9 C with some weak sunshine at times. Mist could form into drizzle or light rain near the northwest coast.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY will continue much the same with fog and/or frost at night, weak sunshine or low cloud, mist and fog by day, and light winds. Lows will be in the -3 to +2 C range, highs 4-8 C.

SUNDAY will turn a bit breezier from the east, a cold wind at times with some drizzle, sleet showers or small hail possible especially over southern higher elevations. Lows will be near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

NEXT WEEK will quite possibly turn even colder with some risk of snow arriving on east winds. This situation is not "carved in stone" yet but indications are getting more favourable all the time for some wintry weather next week.

Tuesday was another cold, sunny day here, well below our normal values, rising only to about zero C at mid-day, and falling to -6 C at night (including tonight). Meanwhile, a plains states blizzard is heading for the Great Lakes, and there is thunder-snow near the south end of Lake Michigan.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 10 December, 2009
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TODAY will be generally fair and reasonably mild, as there is just enough of a southeast breeze to keep the air moving and prevent fog and low cloud; however, that could happen in a few isolated valley locations. Highs will be generally near 8-9 C, but could be held to 5 C in any foggy locations.

TONIGHT will become foggy or misty and rather cold with lows generally between -2 and +2 C.

FRIDAY will see some of this fog failing to disperse, keeping some inland valley locations a bit colder than most other locations, where a bit of weak sunshine will boost temperatures to about 7-8 C.

SATURDAY will be similar, morning fog and frost, afternoon hazy sun or low cloud, and a temperature range of about -2 to +7 C.

SUNDAY will see more of an east wind developing; a few brief showers of light hail or sleet may develop near the east coast, and the wind will add some chill to daytime temperatures held to about 5-6 C.

MONDAY has some chance of seeing sleet or snow at times in an east wind of about 20-25 mph, although this is not a massive arctic invasion, but certainly one of the colder days of recent weeks with highs near 5 C.

Beyond Monday, the possibiliities range from deeper cold with higher risk of snow, to a sort of fizzling out easterly that slowly turns milder again. The best bet at this point is to suggest continued rather cold weather with some chance of snow, and wait to see how things develop over the weekend, as the amount of colder air moving west from Russia is somewhat uncertain.

On Wednesday here, we enjoyed more wintry sunshine with some drifting fog patches in the morning; it remains quite cold, -1 C daytime, -7 C early morning, and we're not expecting major changes in this. The Great Lakes region meanwhile is expecting a massive onslaught of snow squalls later today and on Friday. Some places could see two feet or more. Buffalo NY may be closed down by heavy squalls. This won't reach the large cities on the east coast but it is turning colder there after quite a mild day on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Wisconsin and Iowa are digging out of a massive blizzard that dropped almost two feet of snow there yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday, 7 p.m.
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Revising the "tonight" portion of the forecast above as follows ... western counties will see cloud and outbreaks of light rain (heavier in coastal Kerry) with lows of about 5-6 C. Central counties (meaning from north to south in this case) will see increasing cloud and mist developing, temperatures will fall to about 2-3 C then rise slightly and some patchy light rain may arrive after midnight. Eastern counties will start out generally clear or locally foggy and remain rather cold and dry most of the night. Lows will average -1 C in rural parts and 2-4 C in Dublin and other larger towns and cities.

This is a rather weak disturbance that will probably begin to dissipate by morning, and also it will be pushed back to the west by swelling high pressure over the North Sea and eastern England. So the forecast from that point on should require less updating. However I notice on the 12z guidance that the shaping of the high has changed somewhat and I would take out reference to easterly winds on Sunday for most of Ireland, it may remain more similar to Saturday as per this forecast, then colder air does seem likely to arrive on Monday and it could last much of the week, although Ireland is first to escape from each wave of it as the easterly flow relaxes to more of a locally variable pattern under transient high pressure. The overall theme from next week to Christmas seems to be periods of quite cold weather each having some chance of laying down a bit of snow. White Christmas? That may be possible, but certainly many are likely to see a bit of snow in the two weeks between now and then.

I am just getting started on my day, the U.S. storm coverage exhausted me with a couple of non-stop weather days so I am trying to take it easy today. :cool: In other words, while it appears to have clouded over outside, I haven't looked at much local data yet, people look frozen walking past my window (we are soft coastal people here and freeze rather easily compared to the more hardy folk inland).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 11 December, 2009
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TODAY will be misty or locally foggy as light rain in the west slowly dies out. There could be a few glimpses of the sun in eastern counties, but a low overcast will become widespread. It will turn a little cooler than yesterday with highs generally near 10 C in the west, 7 C in the east. Winds will be light southeasterly (20-30 mph near the west coast).

TONIGHT will be cloudy with fog patches, drizzle at times in western districts, and rather cold with lows of about 3-5 C. If it clears anywhere (possible in the northeast) it could fall to near freezing and fog would likely become thicker as a result.

SATURDAY will start out rather foggy and raw with patchy drizzle. There could be some mid-day sunshine inland, and highs for the day will average near 7 C.

SUNDAY will be similar, possibly a bit colder, with fog, low cloud, morning frost in places, lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY will be a cold period with raw east winds, strong at times near the south and southeast coasts, drizzle or snow grains and highs of about 4 C, with lows near -2 C. More organized snowfall might develop over higher parts of the southeast.

From that point on, the weather is likely to remain quite cold for about a week, but there are various model depictions of how cold, and whether any snow could be produced. Some of the guidance suggests a dry spell wth high pressure nearby, but there is enough uncertainty that I am saying "chance of further snowfall" in this period. Any breakdown of cold weather is highly uncertain and could be as far off as Christmas or a little beyond.

Thursday here turned out to be a cloudy, cold day with a high near -1 C, and some light snow may develop here on Friday ... the longer range trend is for milder weather to return slowly. Meanwhile, parts of the Great Lakes region saw local squalls of 18 inches of snow (near Buffalo, NY for example).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 12 December, 2009
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TODAY will be cloudy with some brief, hazy sunny intervals, but also some drifting fog patches or thicker low cloud, with light winds and highs generally in the 7-8 C range except 10-11 C near the west coast.

TONIGHT will be a bit colder than previous nights, any clearing will quickly lead to thick fog formation, and local frost and ice. Lows will range from -2 to +3 C (probably milder in Kerry and some coastal locations elsewhere).

SUNDAY will have some dense fog in the morning, some brighter intervals mid-day, but a considerable amount of low cloud will remain, with winds still rather light to easterly 10-15 mph. Highs will be in the 5-8 C range.

MONDAY and TUESDAY, the air starts moving again, with the high drifting off to the west, winds become NE 15-25 mph, and this may bring some localized weak hail or snow showers, especially over east-facing slopes. There will be widespread frost and fog overnight, and the temperature range will be generally -2 to +6 C on average.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY, the models have some uncertainty, but there could be some snow in this period, as slightly colder air arrives behind a weak disturbance, and the flow becomes either northerly or locally variable with low pressure near southeast Ireland. However, this situation remains less than definite, as always with cold air moving west in Europe.

At my location, we had some light snow pellets that left a slight dusting, but this is our first snow locally. The high was about +1 C. We're expecting several more days of light snow possibly turning heavier by Monday, then the milder Pacific air returns. But further east, it is brutally cold -- for example, around -40 C in northern Saskatchewan. About a hundred miles north of Toronto, lake effect snow has piled up to three feet in Muskoka. :eek:

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 13 December, 2009
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There have been only minor changes on the forecast models. The general idea is that a rather chilly high will remain near Ireland but drifting away to the northwest next two days, then a somewhat colder northeast flow will develop, lead to a cold ridge of higher pressure around Thursday and Friday, which will be replaced next weekend by a cold northerly flow. The models then seem to go back to a sort of default mild position which often turns out to be postponed once a cold spell begins, so I would not place too much faith in depictions of a strong warming trend just before Christmas, yet -- I would expect that a few days later perhaps.

TODAY will start out with some locally dense fog -- watch out for icy roads in these foggy areas -- mainly over eastern inland regions, with partly cloudy to sunny weather elsewhere. The fog may be slow to lift in places because there is very little wind or warmth from the sun, however, by afternoon most places should be dry with some sunshine and highs of 6-8 C. A bit of an east wind will be noticeable around Wexford and Waterford perhaps. The fog will be quick to return around sunset.

TONIGHT will likely see widespread fog and icy roads before morning, especially away from the south and west coasts which could stay above freezing; otherwise lows will tend to fall to about -3 C in rural sections and -1 to +1 in larger towns.

MONDAY will be foggy for quite a while in many locations and perhaps all day in some, and there, highs could fail to reach 3 or 4 C. Otherwise, some hazy sunshine may break through low cloud and boost temperatures to 5-7 C. Winds will start to feel more keen from the northeast at times. There could be some isolated hail or sleet showers mostly over higher parts of the east.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with more widespread hail or sleet showers, giving snowfall accumulations on some hills. Lows will be near -3 C and highs near 4-6 C.

WEDNESDAY will see frequent mixed showers giving some local accumulations of snow mostly on higher ground, and sleet or hail elsewhere. Winds will pick up to NE 20-30 mph. Lows of about -1 C will be followed by highs of 3-6 C.

THURSDAY will see a few more light wintry showers, but longer intervals of sunshine, and cold temperatures, morning lows of -4 C and highs of about +4 C.

FRIDAY will see increasing cloud and some flurries or showers of hail (graupel) as winds become more NW'ly at about 10-20 mph, with lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

NEXT WEEKEND could see even colder weather with snow possible in places. We shall continue to monitor this prospect here and in the various other threads on the weather forum. I will try to remain conservative on this because it is not quite a "done deal" yet ... but the signs are good with very strong high pressure building over Greenland and Iceland later this week.

Here in Vancouver today, we had a cloudy but mainly dry day, the offshore precip failed to move in so far, but when it does we'll have some snow or sleet here for about two days, followed by a warming trend. It was near +1 C at mid-afternoon and remains about zero now at 9 p.m.

Updates as necessary ...

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 14 December, 2009
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TODAY will feature cold temperatures and some lingering fog, mainly in central counties, but with fairly clear skies overhead, when the fog dissipates some chilly sunshine will follow. There could be some locally brief and light hail showers by afternoon in locations near the Irish Sea and north coast of Donegal. Winds will become more noticeable today, NE 10-20 mph. Highs will vary from 3-4 C in persistent fog, to 6-8 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT will see a return to very cold and locally foggy conditions, but there will be an increase in mid-level cloud from east to west through the night, tending to dissipate fog in the east, and raise temperatures slightly, so it could be around -3 C then rise somewhat before morning. Further west, any clear spots could get as cold as -5 C. There are likely to be some very icy spots in this mixture.

TUESDAY will see more cloud than sun, with passing if rather light showers of hail or sleet, with highs near 6 or 7 C. Winds will continue to add more chill, as they reach NE 15-25 mph.

WEDNESDAY will bring more frequent wintry showers, with some snow on hills, hail or sleet lower down, and a gusty NE wind 20-30 mph adding considerably to the chill, as temperatures vary from morning lows near -1 C to afternoon highs near 5 C.

THURSDAY will be similar, if perhaps a little colder still, but there may also be longer sunny intervals. The temperature range will be about -3 to 4 C.

FRIDAY will bring an interval of cold and largely clear weather with severe morning frosts as lows reach -6 C in places, and highs will recover to only around 2-5 C. There may be some lingering freezing fog in a few spots.

NEXT WEEKEND, cold air will come in from a new direction, the north and northwest. Despite a longer sea track, this air will be quite cold and full of wintry showers of hail and snow. Temperatures will be close to freezing, possibly struggling as high as 2-4 C in any longer sunny intervals, but easily reaching -3 C at night.

The uncertainty is slowly reducing from now through the weekend with most models showing this general scenario in one form or another, but what happens beyond the weekend is quite uncertain, with some models showing the cold air sticking around until Christmas, and others showing it pushed away to the northeast by a returning mild southerly flow. I would put the odds somewhat more on the persistent cold option as my research shows warming more towards the 27th-28th. I do think that New Years will see a milder interval.

So the question of a white Christmas is mainly, will enough snow fall in these showery opportunities, or perhaps from one more organized snowfall that comes along beyond the weekend, to last into Christmas morning? The odds on that would seem to be close to 50-50, which is a lot higher than the climatological average of perhaps 10%.

For my own weather report, we had perhaps 1-2 cms of snow in light bursts earlier today, the main heavy snowfall band is holding off to our southwest, waiting to come in later Monday. The temperature all day Sunday hovered near freezing. As I look outside, the roads are dry but a little greasy looking and there is a light dusting of snow on the grass and parked cars.

Elmo5

Fanastic news MT!! Snow!!!!

You are always right

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 0030h
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Well, I try, but even if I'm not always right, I do think it will snow here and there. I envisage several different events, each covering about 30-50 per cent of the country, so sooner or later almost everyone will see some snow. There may be one or two places that don't, but each region has a better chance in one of these situations, so it could be fairly evenly distributed.

One place where I have to issue a revision is for tonight; there's enough cloud spreading in already that temperatures will likely hold above freezing in most locations, with lows of 2-4 C on average, and a cold sleety rain at times. Wouldn't be surprised if the higher slopes got some snow from that, but not down below about 500 metres a.s.l.

Weather here is cloudy, snow or sleet on the way but hasn't started yet.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 15 December, 2009
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy with sleety showers, more frequent in the southwest this morning, but another batch may arrive in the east and Ulster this afternoon. Northeast winds will gust to 25-30 mph at times, making it feel rather cold, despite highs near 8 or 9 C.

TONIGHT will remain mostly cloudy and so it should stay above freezing in most areas, anywhere that clears could see fog forming and a light frost. Some of the light hail showers may continue for a while, with more arriving before morning. Lows will be about 2-4 C on average.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with heavier showers developing, these taking on a rather wintry nature by afternoon and evening, at first over higher terrain. Highs will reach about 7 C but temperatures will tend to drop a bit after any showers, with rather gusty NE winds 20-35 mph.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be colder days with a chance of snow showers mixing with the sleety or hail showers in the southeast which may see the coldest of the temperatures, as the winds swing into an easterly direction. The lows will average -1 C and the highs about +5 C on these two days, but it may feel colder due to 20-40 mph winds (stronger in the south and southeast coastal regions).

THE WEEKEND is still looking rather wintry and showery, although there are suggestions that the colder air will hold off to Sunday and Monday now, so we'll go with partly cloudy and showery, mostly rain or hail on Saturday, highs near 8 or 9 C, then hail or snow on Sunday and Monday, highs closer to 3-5 C. Overnight lows in this period will be near -1 C and frosts will be fairly frequent. I should stress, it could go either way from this projection, either colder with considerably more snow and frost, or not getting quite this cold, if the models start to backtrack on us. The indications at present are for the air mass to be over the Atlantic for 2-3 days after leaving Greenland, which gives some time for modification. Meanwhile, the outlook for beyond the weekend (and Monday) is quite uncertain, we've had a variety of suggestions and the best thing to say is to expect a slow moderating trend, but it may involve higher pressure giving sharp night frosts for a while.

The snow expected here has arrived, and seems to have turned to sleet before much accumulated. As the front is a series of waves, I expect this to continue for a day or two before we break into milder Pacific air by Wednesday.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 16 December, 2009
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TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast in most places; there will be some locally icy freezing fog in some central districts at first, and also some light showers of rain or sleet drifting inland from the east coast. Despite that, most places will be dry and just a bit on the cold side, with highs of 7 to 9 C expected. Some heavier sleet showers may develop by afternoon, mostly in the southeast and parts of Ulster, and these could drop snow on higher ground, as well as bringing a slightly colder late afternoon or evening to some of these counties. Winds today will average ENE 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT will see more frequent mixed wintry showers, with some chance of snow in the higher parts of the southeast and north. It will become colder with lows in some inland parts reaching -2 C, near the coast more like +2 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be cold, wintry days with some blue sky, some passing sleet or snow showers, and a brisk east wind adding to the chill, at 20-40 mph (higher in the south and east near the coast). Morning lows will be near -3 C inland and close to zero C in coastal sections; afternoon highs will be struggling to reach 3-6 C in most areas. There could be some persistent frost in shaded rural locations.

SATURDAY will see the wind switching to the north and oddly bringing some milder air from that direction, in advance of a strong cold front; expect a partly cloudy day with a few passing showers (mixed types) and highs reaching about 7 or 8 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking quite cold again with strong NW winds at times, squally hail or snow showers this time heavier in Connacht than other parts of the country, and temperatures a little below freezing at night, a little above in the daytime (3-6 C). This spell could persist with more scattered snow accumulations mainly on hills, with the risk of a more organized period of heavier snow before Christmas. The cold air will be trying to hold on through the 24th and may last into Christmas Day before milder air returns.

Where I live, the promised snowfall turned to rain rather quickly and it has warmed up to about 4 C now, with no further sub-freezing temperatures expected and a little more rain to come. There are still a few patches of snow here and there (it never amounted to more than 2 cms).

Watch for updates if any heavier snow showers develop especially.

glimmerman123

This is what Met Eireann are saying if we can trust them.The circulation in the atmosphere shows no sign of returning to its normal Atlantic pattern early next week. So that means it should stay fairly dry up until mid-week with the winds eventually going easterly in direction. Looks like the cold spell could last beyond Christmas.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 17 December, 2009
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Overview: With all the interest in snow, I'm offering this overview in advance of the usual forecast. Much colder air is gradually spreading into eastern England this morning, and will mix through the present modified air mass in Ireland to bring somewhat colder temperatures by tonight and Friday. This air mass is capable of sustaining snow mainly on hills and in heavier downbursts from sea-effect showers, otherwise, temperatures will remain just a bit too mild for all precip everywhere to be snow. Saturday will see Ireland in this same air mass but with a slight warming ahead of a sharp cold front barrelling down from Iceland. When that front arrives, Saturday late afternoon in most areas (evening south coast) temperatures are likely to be cold enough to make snow the dominant precip type, but the precipitation will continue to be somewhat showery. By about Monday, low pressure forming in this cold air mass may set off a heavier snowfall event that may once again be mixing with sleet or rain near sea level. The cold air is then likely to be around for two or three more days, leaving the country about the same time that Santa Claus arrives, give or take a day.

What it all means is that most people have a very good chance of seeing snow, at least on your travels, if not right where you live and/or work. There isn't likely to be a country-wide blizzard, but neither is it going to be too difficult to find snow. Not trying to hedge, this is just the way it appears to be at this point, marginal enough to suggest a bit of caution, but conducive enough to mean that snow will appear here and there. I hope you get what you're hoping for ...

TODAY will become colder with a keen northeast wind developing, and sea effect showers moving inland around Dublin and Wicklow, these bringing a mixture of highland snow, hail or sleet further down, and cold rain near sea level. A few lightning strikes are possible with this sea effect precip. Further west, showers will be isolated and will take roughly the same form (snow more likely higher up). Highs today may hit 7 or 8 C but it may not last beyond the first showers which will drop temperatures quickly. Also, it will feel more like 2-4 C anyway, with winds gusting at times to 40 mph.

TONIGHT will see the partly cloudy, cold conditions continuing, with a few more sea effect showers, and the snow line may drop with these as temperatures cool to near 2 C in coastal areas, and -2 C inland where any clear skies persist -- there could be some local ice fog and frost in sheltered valleys. But winds will continue to blow at 20-30 mph in exposed locations.

FRIDAY will be about the same, partly cloudy, some longer sunny intervals in the west, widely scattered mixed wintry showers, a good chance of snow on the Wicklow and Dublin hills, and highs near 5 C with winds ENE 20-35 mph adding a chill.

SATURDAY will start with a sharp frost, but part of the day will be reasonably mild in advance of a strong cold front. When this cold front arrives from north to south, there could be some hail, thunder, and blowing snow or sleet, with NW winds gusting to 45 mph at times. This will be around late afternoon in the north, evening in the south. Highs earlier in the day will reach 7 C but when this front goes through, it will drop rapidly to 1-2 C and head down from there.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY looks like the coldest period of all, with temperatures not rising much above freezing in the daytime (if at all) and holding near -4 C at night. The big question will be how much snow might fall, with good chances of heavy snow showers especially in Connacht, but also in other higher parts of Ireland, and also a fair chance of a more organized period of snow or sleet during the cold spell. Details on this should become more obvious as the cold spell approaches. I would say that snowfalls of 2 to 7 cms are quite possible in this period, in many parts of Ireland (but not necessarily everywhere).

A warming trend is likely around Christmas but the cold air may hang on about that long before relenting to milder southerly winds. When it does turn mild, it could be very mild (10-12 C) between Christmas and New Years, and I feel that a big storm may develop in this period especially towards New Years Eve.

My weather, almost ironically, is mild and damp, near 10 C at 9 p.m. here.

Now if you want to know what two thousand other people think will happen, have a look at the "cold and snow" thread.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 18 December, 2009
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TODAY will be cold and dry in most of Ireland, with snow of varying intensity covering mostly the southeast counties. A further 1-3 inches may fall in some places, especially Wicklow. Otherwise, expect some wintry sunshine, a slowly thawing frost, and locally icy roads most of the morning, with the ice returning around sunset. Highs today may only struggle briefly above freezing in some areas, reaching highs of 2-5 C in most places. Winds will not be as strong except perhaps near the Wicklow coast and in Dublin where they may remain NNE 20-40 mph.

TONIGHT will become clear and very cold in most places, with some patchy low cloud, freezing fog patches, and black ice developing on roads. Lows could fall to -6 C in some rural sections, and -2 C even in larger towns. Winds will fall off to lighter values. There could be the odd light flurry near the coasts both southeast, and towards morning, northwest as well.

SATURDAY will see a bright and frosty start, with the ice slowly melting, then just about mid-day as cloud spreads in, it may feel a bit milder briefly, and there could be some rain showers. Highs for the day in this period will average 5-7 C. After that, a strong cold front will arrive, and blanket much of Connacht and Ulster in blowing snow, hail showers, and a strong NW wind reaching 25-45 mph (at least); some snowfalls of 2-6 inches are possible. Temperatures will drop off sharply to about -1 C and there may be blizzard-like conditions due to the blowing snow. The east and south coasts may only get the fringes of this snow but they will see the wind and colder temperatures.

SUNDAY will continue windy with periods of snow inland, mixed hail and cold sleety rain near the west coast, and a witches' brew of all kinds of wintry precipitation in many other areas. Some areas will see a further 1-3 inches of snow. Morning lows will be -2 to -5 C and afternoon "highs" only near zero to about 3 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY, the weather will be dominated by cold air and drifting low pressure that will bring lighter winds than the weekend, but from variable directions, giving all coasts some risk of onshore sea effect snow, hail or sleet. Some places, probably well inland and at higher elevations, could remain snow covered and get some additional snow cover from time to time. A widespread heavy snowfall seems unlikely at this point but if the maps changed a little, that could come into the forecast picture (basically it does not quite look cold enough at all levels). The temperature range in this period will be typically from lows near -2 C to highs near 6 C.

Around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the current indications are for a very gradual warming trend with a cold rain, still mixing with sleet or snow in some higher parts of central, western and northern counties. Temperatures will likely be in the range of 2 to 7 C.

Milder air should return shortly after Christmas and may peak around New Years Eve which could be a stormy time (wind and rain possibly).

The weather here today was quite bland, mild, foggy, some light rain, and temperatures in the 8-10 C range.

Updates when needed, and there's the other thread with thousands or perhaps millions of opinions about the snow potential. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 6:45 p.m.
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A weak trough is bringing some light snow or sleet to central counties this evening; this may continue further south later on although amounts will generally be light, less than 1 cm in most cases. Because it's already quite cold the overnight lows may still reach -5 C in places because it may clear for a time after this feature drifts by, and before the more organized front begins to spread its cloud south into Connacht and Ulster just about sunrise. The further south you are, the more likely it is that you may get into a brief milder westerly flow ahead of this developing front as it pushes steadily south on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will therefore likely vary from 2-4 C in Ulster, to 6-8 C in Kerry, but in all cases the temperatures will take a tumble when this front arrives. Right now it's just getting started up around Jan Mayen Island with 50-70 mph northerly winds pushing -10 C air south from the northeast parts of Greenland. Now oddly enough, that's not very cold for the source region, but as this strong northerly push develops, the air will stay almost that cold over the icy margins east of Iceland and should arrive over Donegal and Ulster at about -1 C (locally warmed at the surface, like Malin Head for example might see 4 C but this temperature won't be sustained very far inland partly because the cloudy air stream will be dropping snow and hail widely and cooling over the land mass).

So by late tomorrow it's going to be a wintry wonderland in some parts of the north with snow blowing across open country roads, especially on the higher sections; travel outside of towns will become quite unpleasant if not dangerous at times once this near-blizzard develops.

It will be interesting to see if any of this reaches the larger towns and cities of the east and south, possibly not, it may be mainly clear once the snow clouds exhaust their load, but I imagine there will still be some passing flurries or spits of hail in a partly cloudy residue (this arriving early Sunday morning and lasting through the day). So therefore Sunday is likely to be a lot more "wintry" in Connacht and parts of Ulster, and possibly even in Kerry and western parts of Cork as winds back a little from NNW to WNW during the day. This arctic wind will cut right through you at about 1-3 C.

Meanwhile, it's a mild, drizzly day here (9 C) and on the east coast of the US they are preparing for a heavy snowfall in places like DC, Philly and NYC, later Saturday night in Boston (amounts could reach 10-15 inches). It's not bitterly cold but the dynamics are just right for heavy, wet snow.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 19 December, 2009
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TODAY will become milder for a while, especially near the west coast where mist, drizzle and highs near 8 C are likely. Further inland and eastern Ireland, the morning chill will gradually give way to mostly cloudy skies, the odd passing sprinkle of rain or hail, and highs near 4 C. Winds will be rather light westerly until late afternoon when a strong front arrives (this is now approaching the 60 N latitude). When this goes through the northern counties late afternoon, winds will become NNW 30-50 mph, snow will develop and temperatures will drop to about 1-2 C quite rapidly.

From late today through Monday, be alert for icy road conditions, local blizzard-like conditions especially on open stretches of rural roads, and patches of freezing fog near open water in ponds and streams.

TONIGHT, the snow, blowing snow, and much colder weather will rapidly sweep south, bringing some accumulations of 2-4 inches especially to higher parts of the northwest, Ulster, and even scattered parts of central and southwest counties. The east and southeast are more likely to see light flurries, perhaps mixed with sleet. Lows tonight will reach -3 C for most, and winds will increase to NNW 30-50 mph, adding quite a strong chill.

SUNDAY will continue windy and very cold with passing snow showers, some hail or sleet near the west coast, risk of thunder, and winds NW 20-40 mph, with highs struggling to reach 2-3 C.

MONDAY will be a similar day although with winds more westerly and falling off to 10-20 mph, the snow showers are likely to be more confined to higher parts of the western counties by afternoon. Lows of about -4 C will be followed by highs of 3-5 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will bring further wintry cold, sleet or wet snow at times, low cloud, fog and mist, with frequent icy conditions. Temperatures are likely to be stuck in the narrow range of -2 to +3 C most of this period.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Friday) will likely see a thaw setting in with light to moderate rain, fog and southeast to south winds, veering to west later in the day, with highs near 8 C.

The further outlook calls for milder and at times stormy weather with the risk of heavy rainfalls developing.

It has been a rather nondescript day here, foggy and mild with light rain at times, near 10 C. Snow has started in the eastern US cities and threatens to dump quite a heavy amount by Sunday (15-20 inches in some parts). The deep freeze over the Canadian prairies is slowly relenting but a reload for some central regions appears to be forming over the central arctic islands.

Updates may follow; or get the views of thousands of other weather watchers in the cold weather thread ... as I say, milder for a time, doesn't mean the cold spell is over by any means, a reinforcement is rapidly approaching. :eek:

Fulton Crown

Well done MT - spot on as usual.

Festive greetings and thanks for all your work !

EFJ

Fulton Crown

Fulton Crown wrote: »

Well done MT - spot on as usual.

Festive greetings and thanks for all your work !

+1

Thanks MT, Happy Christmas & a Happy New Year to you

Pangea

Christmas day and thaw should not be in the same sentence lol

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 20 December, 2009
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TODAY will be cold with some sunny intervals in the east and south mainly, and some showery outbreaks of snow or hail in the west and north for the most part, although some of these could reach the drier east and south at times. Higher inland portions of Ulster and Connacht could see 2-4 inches of snow and local blizzard-like conditions, although this will be rather hit or miss. Winds of NW 20-40 mph will add more chill to daytime highs that may not rise above 2 C in more snowy areas, or 4 C in general. Watch out for black ice this morning, and locally icy sections all day (combined with the glare of the sun as another driving hazard in some cases).

TONIGHT will be another very cold, frosty night with the local snow showers dying off to some extent, although a few may remain active. This will leave many places both clear and snow-covered, which could drop temperatures in a few places to -5 or even -7 C. Other locations with a bit more cloud will stay around -2 C. This in general will lead to widespread icy conditions on the roads and pavements.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will feel the effects of an arctic low pressure centre that is slowly filling and dying out, but drifting through Ulster from Scotland. The net result of that should be considerable low cloud, patchy snow or wet snow, freezing drizzle in a few spots, but a slight moderating trend near the west and south coasts as winds come in from the warmer coastal waters. Highs may struggle up to 5-7 C in those locales, while it stays much closer to freezing in much of the east and north, as well as some central counties. Snowfall in general is not likely to be too heavy, more of a "snizzle" as some call it, with patchy freezing fog in the overnight hours when temperatures fall a little below freezing in many areas.

By WEDNESDAY, milder air is going to be sluggishly trying to push back north from the Channel and southern England into the rest of the British Isles, and this could lead to a period of wet snow lasting into THURSDAY, mixing with sleet or cold rain, and fog or low cloud, as temperatures edge very slowly upward to about 3-5 C. Any snow that may have fallen this weekend or later will be slowly melting through this period, so by Christmas Eve, it may be more of a foggy scene than a "white Christmas" but some higher inland locations could be fortunate and keep some of their snow.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Friday) is still looking a bit milder again with rain at times, a strengthening southerly wind, and highs of 6-8 C.

The two days following Christmas are currently looking rather windy and wet with temperatures back into the early December double digit range again.

From then to New Years, the models are suggesting that cold air, trying to work back to the west, may set up a battleground frontal zone near Ireland but may again be overcome by mild, windy weather; from what we can see of early January, though, this mild interval may not last all that long and January may bring more of this unusually cold and even snowy weather.

We've had a mild, foggy and drizzly day here, with a high of near 10 C. Plenty of snow has fallen in the northeast U.S. cities, some reports of 20-25 inches in the Washington DC area, still snowing hard in New York and just starting now in Boston.

By the way, I hope to keep providing forecasts at more or less regular intervals but if I do disappear for a day or two here or there, please accept my apologies (also if the weather turns mild on Christmas Day, same thing).

BlancheSparks

Well it will be the coast road for me today..... 20 miles further round but less risky than the Ballaghisheen. I think it will be a sheet of ice up there.
Thanks for the weather forecast.