Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 24 November, 2009
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TODAY will start out cloudy but only the north will see much rain at first, as a band of heavier rain is developing off to the west and will move in gradually around mid-day in the west, then will reach other parts of Ireland by afternoon. Winds will be picking up from the SSW at 30-50 mph and rainfalls will eventually produce 10-25 mms more. Highs today will be fairly mild at about 14 C in the south, 12 C in the north.

TONIGHT will become windier especially in Connacht where gusts to 70 mph are possible. Elsewhere, winds will peak at around 50-55 mph, so it won't be particularly damaging, while the places likely to see stronger winds are perhaps more used to them too. Squally showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will accompany these strong winds and temperatures will remain in the 8-10 C range. Winds will veer from SSW to W during the night.

WEDNESDAY will continue cloudy with a few breaks, frequent showers some with hail or thunder, and strong SW to W winds at times (30-55 mph), with temperatures falling off gradually to about 7 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be breezy, cool and showery, with mixed wintry showers possible over higher ground especially in the north and west. Highs each day will be near 8 C and lows around 1-3 C.

SATURDAY looks rather chilly and wet with either a cold rain, or a sleety mixture, perhaps snow over higher ground at times. Highs will be only about 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY will remain rather chilly with further mixed showers, and highs of about 7 C.

NEXT WEEK should see a gradual return to milder weather with some rain.

Monday in my part of the world was cloudy with periods of rain and fairly light winds, highs near 7 C.

Watch for updates, too bad the rain and wind won't be going on strike (for a while).

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 1715h
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The band of light to moderate rain continues to move eastward rather slowly but should move past Dublin by about 9 p.m., then most of Ireland will be in a dry slot with moderate westerly winds of 20-40 mph for a few hours, followed by the stronger winds developing around deep low pressure now located near 57N 17W and extending a deep trough southward. This will rotate around and catch Donegal and Mayo, as well as adjacent parts of other counties in the northwest, with the full force of its 50-70 mph winds later tonight. Those counties will continue to see very strong winds veering SW to W through the morning.

Elsewhere, it's a case of somewhat more moderate but still blustery westerly winds developing late tonight; the south coast is in a slacker gradient and may only see 30-45 mph wind speeds, so judge your most likely wind speeds by this north to south contrast. Also, places well inland and sheltered from a westerly gale may not see very strong winds either.

The rest of the forecast remains about the same, but I am noticing a tendency for clusters of heavier showers to develop for the southwest at times, although the flow is turning more northwesterly, it seems that the frontal zone will not be pushed that far south and so at times various troughs will be energized to produce 5-10 mms of rain in a six-hour period as we move through this colder spell of weather. And it still looks a bit sleety for the weekend as weak disturbances form over Biscay and move towards the south of England, placing Ireland in a bit of a northeast flow -- not cold enough for any real snow, except maybe above 2,000 feet on some southern mountain peaks. Also, precipitation amounts may only be in the range of 0.1 to 0.3 inches which would not give much potential for snowfall in any case (1-3 inches of snow probably half of which would be sleet or slush, and all well up above most of the populated areas).

The period 2-5 December is beginning to look interesting, this is a high-energy period for storm development and now the jet stream and first signs of low pressure on the computer models are all in the vicinity of Ireland. Something to watch as this could intensify on later runs.

Cloudy and spitting rain here (the weather has basically not changed here for about four days, can't remember last time I saw the sun).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 25 November, 2009
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TODAY will be quite a stormy day in many parts of Ireland, but the strongest winds will occur this morning in Connacht and exposed parts of Ulster, where gusts to 80 mph are likely. Further south, gusts to about 65 mph are probable in more exposed areas, and where squally showers happen to bring brief bursts of stronger winds. For your local weather, much will depend on whether you happen to be in the path of one of these heavier squalls of rain, hail and mountain snow, because some of them may be quite fierce especially around Galway where a convergence zone is setting up, and also near the south coast where another strong band is developing. Some sunshine may be recorded between squalls, and in most areas, the wind will ease a little after noon, although some gusts to 55 mph will continue. Highs will be about 8 C but temperatures could drop sharply in some of these squalls.

Rainfall amounts as such will not average very much more than 3-5 mms but it is possible that one or two places will get a stronger downpour of 10-20 mms.

TONIGHT will continue rather windy and cold with mixed showers of hail and sleet, and it's possible that some snow will accumulate on higher ground at times. Lows will be only 2-4 C and winds westerly 25-45 mph with higher gusts in Connacht at times.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue rather unsettled and quite windy with more mixed showers or periods of sleety rain, sometimes getting rather heavy in the southwest in particular. Highs each day will be 7-10 C and lows close to the freezing point; if the wind drops off in any inland locations there could be a sharp frost for some places. Winds will continue WNW 20-40 mph with higher gusts, adding a chill.

THE WEEKEND looks unsettled with periods of rain, rather cold and sleety at times with snow possible again on higher slopes. It won't be necessarily too windy but there could be an interval with gusty northerly winds as one of the lows passes on Sunday. Highs on the weekend will only be around 6 or 7 C, and overnight lows -1 to +2 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking milder again with (you guessed it) more rain.

And my weather is also mild with (you guessed it) more rain.

Watch for updates -- the strongest winds are likely around 0900h in Connacht and probably then to mid-day in most areas further east as well.

Storm force winds are affecting all offshore waters but it's particularly bad off Donegal and Mayo where force 11-12 winds are likely at times.

maquiladora

Thanks M.T. I've noticed on a couple of models there's seems to be hints of another storm late next week. Euro at 240 hours.... :eek:

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday 6:30 p.m.
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Expect some heavier showers this evening in the southeast from Waterford around to about Wicklow. These could give about 10 mms of rain but further north, it's mainly the western half of the country likely to see much shower activity overnight, and this fairly subdued (2-5 mms).

It's quite wet here today with a steady downpour all morning so far, milder at about 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wed 9:45 p.m.
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Currently the most active showers are in east central Ireland closing in on Dublin, so expect perhaps 5-10 mms of rain in that region tonight, and perhaps there will be a touch of snow on the summits by morning.

It continues to pour with rain here.

Redsunset

My take on the weekend at the moment is that it will feel rather cold.duh i hear you say!!:pac:

Showery rain but increasingly turning to wintry mix and yes definately some snow showers possible especially over higher ground in northern half of country but not confined as we head into sunday evening,monday morning as colder 850 temps flow over the country for a brief spell before we see a return to the muck.

well thats my 2 cents for the day.:D

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 26 November, 2009
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TODAY will be blustery and rather cold with frequent showers (especially in western and central counties), some sunny intervals, and a mixture of rain, hail and possibly snow (mostly on higher ground) with some thunder possible in the squally showers. Winds will be W 20-40 mph and rather gusty around some of these showers. Highs will average 8-10 C.

TONIGHT will continue much the same, partly cloudy with more showers of a rather mixed variety, more frequent in the south and west. Lows will be around 3 to 5 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with brief sunny intervals, and showers merging for a time into periods of light rain, rather sleety above 300m and turning to wet snow at times on higher hills. Highs of about 7 to 9 C will feel colder due to the strong NW breeze.

SATURDAY will probably bring some cold rain at times with light to moderate northeast to north winds developing. This rain could become sleety and mix with snow at higher elevations. Highs will only reach 6 to 8 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY, as the crew have been suggesting, are looking somewhat promising for a bit of snow to fall at times, at least in the north and higher parts of central and southern counties. The temperatures will just be in that marginal range of about 4-6 C where snow could start falling, although precipitation in general does not look too heavy, and the most likely outcome is some light slushy accumulations in the early morning hours, with rain more likely at mid-day. We'll have to keep an eye on how this develops. Winds would be light to moderate NE to N backing at times to NW.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY is likely to be a milder period with rain at times, and the risk of another strong wind event developing later in the week (from the SSW) as the storm track is likely to be near Ireland and running from south to north. However, we must caution that much colder air will be trying to escape from the Greenland area and could come charging south behind any given storm in the next week to ten days, especially (I think) after the 5th of December.

It has continued to rain pretty well all day long here on Wednesday and yes we are getting rather tired of it, but I know one place that won't be wanting to take it away. :cool:

Drummer Mummer

Here in the North East clear skies and lovely sunshine, light winds but cool. Lovely day!

Joe Public

Drummer Mummer wrote: »

Here in the North East clear skies and lovely sunshine, light winds but cool. Lovely day!

That's nice but you should really post this in the current weather conditions thread.

Drummer Mummer

Sorry about that. As you can see I am new to all this and to be honest there are SO many threads regarding weather its all so confusing. I will endeavor to be correct next time!

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday, 1845h
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Looks as though the southwest is about to get slammed by a developing frontal wave coming in from the northwest ... expect to see some rather heavy hail showers at lower elevations, and/or a cold drenching rain, but snow is quite possible on higher ground with this (not that anyone will see it until the morning perhaps). This system appears to be on a track that will largely avoid most other counties but there may be an increase in the current scattering of gusty hail and rain showers, and a similar if less active chance of seeing a bit of snow by morning on higher slopes.

As for the weekend situation, the other threads on the forum are all over this situation, and I will just say, this is the traditional early season forecaster's headache of marginal but quite possible snowfall generation from an easterly flow around low pressure, all the parameters read out about 1-2 C and sleet, so the best call to make this far in advance is to suggest that snow may fall on elevations higher than perhaps 200m, and if it falls lower down it's likely to melt on contact with the rather warm ground, but anything's possible in this transitional situation. It could also just fizzle to drizzle as we say, but it does look like some snow will fall especially on the Wicklow and Dublin mountains (hills, whatever you wish to say) and perhaps well down towards the higher towns and suburbs around there.

We may have a better idea of the potential for this by the morning forecasts.

I am somewhat in a state of shock having very nearly visualized the orb of our primary star in the sky at one point this morning, so thin was the lower fog layer and all three cloud layers above it, that a form of sunlight was discernible, and not only that, it wasn't raining, which was confusing because I have become more or less attached to my umbrella. :eek:

glossy

thanks ...

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 27 November, 2009
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TODAY, some rather heavy showers will cross the southern counties this morning; some sleet or mountain snow may develop with this. Further north, showers will be lighter and widely spaced with some sunshine through variable layers of higher cloud at times. It will be chilly with brisk W to NW winds; by afternoon, a new batch of showers is likely with hail fairly frequent, and this may extend over most of the country at times. Highs today will be around 7-9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and cold with some sleety showers remaining, mostly near the west coast. It could snow on higher parts of Connacht at times, with 1-2 inches possible there. Lows will be generally close to zero C with some frost where winds fall off to light.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with intervals of light rain or sleet, mixing with some snow over higher ground. This will be a rather weak and disorganized system and it could dry out in some places to allow for a little weak sunshine. Highs will be around 7-8 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking quite cold with the strong possibility of some snow, especially above 200 metres (asl) and on east-facing slopes of higher ground. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with highs of about 6 C. It may clear extensively by Monday morning with a sharp frost as lows fall to about
-3 to -5 C inland (-1 to +2 C in more sheltered coastal and urban locations). Then it's possible that more wet snow will fall as warm fronts develop Monday and push this colder air back towards the north. Highs on Monday could be quite chilly after the frosty start, around 3-5 C in some parts.

From TUESDAY on, a milder and wet spell is likely, and it could get rather windy at times, but so far nothing too definite on that front -- temperatures will recover to about 9-11 C.

We managed to have an entire day without rain here and the sun even made a brief appearance (Thursday afternoon), with a mild high of 12 C.

Check the other threads about snowfall for more details and opinions about what may be about to unfold -- and watch for updates here too.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 1945h
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Tonight, some cold rain or sleet will hover around the south coast, with only scattered light precip further north, could turn to wet snow in places. Tomorrow, a more organized area of rain, with higher elevation sleet and snow, will gradually push into the south coast and make progress north overnight into Sunday morning. This could become rather heavy at times near the east coast south of Dublin, and with my idea of a rain-snow elevation dividing line of about 200 metres, this would imply some heavy snow potentially on the higher parts of Wicklow especially. It's somewhat on a knife edge as to how this actually plays out, the cold air is marginal but in any case what there is of it (the cold air) will build up like a shallow dome over Ireland on Monday morning. Then we need to assess whether it will try to hold back the milder moist flow long enough to induce any snow or sleet on the warm fronts late Monday into Tuesday morning. This could be an elevation event too but for the northern half of the country this time.

Ripley's believe it or not, the sun is shining here, the skies are mostly blue, with patchy cloud that is leftover fog from earlier, and it was rather cold at 0900 (4 C) but now at almost noon it is about 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 28 November, 2009
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TODAY will start out dry in most regions as light rain moves away from the southeast. The day will feature cool temperatures, a thickening high overcast progressively dimming the sun, and periods of rain setting in by late afternoon or evening across the south. Winds will be light most of the day but will become NE 20-30 mph in the south by evening. Highs will reach about 7-9 C.

TONIGHT will see periods of rain heavier in the southeast, mixing with sleet and snow at higher elevations especially over the mountains of counties Dublin and Wicklow. The rain will be somewhat lighter and may become sleety or mix with wet snow in some central regions, and this mixed precip will perhaps reach the northwest and parts of Ulster just before dawn. Lows will be about 3-5 C in the coastal southeast, and 1-3 C elsewhere with some patchy frost forming in northern areas and slippery road conditions quite possible especially on higher sections. Winds in the southeast counties will reach NE 30-40 mph near exposed coasts.

SUNDAY will see a continuation of this pattern, with moderate to heavy rain possible at times near the southeast coast accompanied by strong NE winds, snow falling on higher parts of the mountains and possibly coming down to lower elevations at times, and a sleety mixture elsewhere in Ireland, although not as heavy. By late Sunday, some areas will have had 20-40 mms of rain in the southeast, and higher elevations could see 5-15 cms of snow (but not nearly that much in transitional elevations such as higher suburbs or lower slopes of the mountains). Highs on Sunday could be fairly brutal, considering the wind, at only 5-7 C (and lower than this on higher slopes).

SUNDAY NIGHT will see the sleety mix and mountain snow gradually ending with clearing towards morning, starting earlier in Connacht so that lows there could reach -5 to -7 C inland. Elsewhere, Monday morning lows will be between -3 and 0 C for most, and probably a few degrees above freezing in central Dublin and around the southeast coast. However, note that a sharp frost will develop in most parts of Ireland and roads could be very slippery all night.

MONDAY will start out clear or at least dry, and cold, with high cloud quickly spreading across the sky, and a chilly southeast wind developing. There is some chance of a brief period of sleet or snow in the evening as warmer air returns aloft at first. Highs on Monday will be only 4-7 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY will be dominated by Atlantic low pressure systems and southeast to south winds, so it will turn milder, although it may feel rather raw at times due to the winds reaching 20-40 mph. Highs will be generally in the range of 8-11 C and night temperatures will be up considerably too.

There are some indications of colder air trying to work around from Russia and central Europe in a long-track easterly but this is rather speculative and in any case it may never reach the British Isles before moderating.

Watch for updates and commentary on the other threads about any sleet or snow this weekend.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 5:10 p.m.
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This evening and overnight, widespread fog is forming across east-central Ireland and with temperatures near freezing this could produce some very slippery roads, even some local black ice. The rain from the Channel low is slowly moving onto the coast between Cork and Wexford, and will probably continue to make slow further northward progress overnight mainly from Waterford east, and this will turn readily to snow over higher ground as temperatures in the precip zone are only 2-4 C near the coast now.

As to the eventual outcome by Sunday morning, it still looks as though the southeast counties could get hit by fairly strong bands of moisture, rain near sea level, sleet higher up and snow above perhaps 300 metres, but with some variation at times. This mixture of precip could move further north and west through Sunday but the further it moves, the more fragmented and light it will become. Winds will become much stronger late tonight and on Sunday too, from the NNE at 20-40 mph near the Irish Sea coast, otherwise 15-30 mph. Over the nearby seas, winds of 30-50 mph will develop tomorrow, and if you have travel plans, you may run into some nasty weather in Wales too.

After our brush with drought yesterday, it's back into the murky rain, fog and drizzle for us, a change first brought to our attention by a driver outside where we live, just before midnight, spinning out on a routine turn and coming to rest between a road sign and a tree. As it wasn't that close to freezing, it reminds me to remind you to watch out on the roads (for the other guy mostly :cool: but have a great weekend despite the weather).

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 0010h
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Current indications show the low quite strong and trying to move north towards Wales, then slowly losing that battle and being pushed more to the southeast through Sunday. This is going to allow a band of heavy moisture to continue to drift further northwest to cover more of Ireland as the night goes on, and this precip could be quite heavy, as mentioned earlier, trending to snow at higher elevations as well as further distances inland (partly because the Irish Sea is relatively warm, and partly because further inland, the air is already colder and as winds pick up the trajectory will be from Ulster where it is also quite cold).

So a rather complicated picture, heavy rain along the coast and up to about 300 metres on the east side of the hills and mountains, then sleet, then snow over the summits and probably mixing back to sleet on the far side as the mess moves further inland.

The frequent thunder and lightning being reported are mainly due to instability created by cold air flowing out of northern England and Wales over the 10 C waters of the Irish Sea. This is not quite a classic winter sea effect situation as the precip bands would be there anyway given this strong of a low (980 mbs now), but the process is similar.

I imagine that the thunder and lightning may be noted further inland as time goes on, this system will continue to back up and loop for another 9-12 hours which is causing considerable friction between charged air masses and the land.

Another component of this weather picture is heavy hail that is really ice pellets or a sort of frozen sleet falling rapidly and not having time to melt before hitting the ground (whatever the surface temperatures may be). It's not surprising that this hail would be close to the more active thunder and lightning as the processes are related.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 29 November, 2009
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Watch for slippery or even icy road conditions in some higher eastern locations as well as some central districts today, and more generally tonight and Monday morning.

TODAY will continue wet in southeast counties, as periods of moderate to heavy rain cover parts of the country south of a line from Meath to Cork. At higher elevations in this zone, the rain will change to sleet at times, and snow could accumulate above 300 metres asl. Further rainfalls of 20 mms are likely, with some urban flooding possible in parts of this region. Highs in this region will be near 7 C near sea level, trending down to 2-4 C at higher elevations (zero on high summits, climbing strongly discouraged). Winds will be NE 20-40 mph (gusts to 50 near the Wicklow coast). There may be further thunder and lightning especially in Wicklow and Wexford.

In a zone further west that runs from about Kerry to Ulster, excluding most of Connacht, the precipitation will be more intermittent, more prone to a sleety mix or accumulating snow in some places, amounts of about 10 mms or several cms of snow, and winds will be somewhat lighter at NE 15-30 mph. It will be colder here, with highs of about 2-4 C.

In much of Connacht, the skies will be partly to mostly cloudy but precipitation will take the form of lines of sea effect showers originating near Donegal and Derry, heading in a generally SSW direction towards Galway. Amounts will be variable (3-7 mms rain, hail, or 3-7 cms of snow on higher ground). Highs will be around 4-5 C. Winds will be generally N 15-30 mph but stronger at times near the coast and on higher ground.

TONIGHT will see all of this precipitation and the stronger winds moving away to the east around midnight, with slow clearing to follow; however, there may be periods of sleet or rain until midnight in the southeast. Eventually some central and western parts will clear, despite a few rogue sea effect bands weakly persisting. Sharp frost will develop, with lows inland of -3 to -5 C, closer to zero C in Dublin and some other coastal regions around the southern half of the country. Winds will fall off to light northerly.

MONDAY will have a generally dry start under patches of clear sky, and patches of low cloud from overnight fog. Higher cloud will overspread around mid-day from the southwest, and it will be quite cold with highs possibly reaching only 4-6 C.

MONDAY NIGHT could see further sleet or snow in higher parts of central and northern counties as milder air slowly spreads in, mainly over top of the cold surface layers at first. Lows will be generally near -1 to +2 C, rising temperatures are likely after midnight though.

TUESDAY will become windy and wet with the winds starting out SE 30-45 mph and veering rapidly to SW 30-50 mph, with heavy showers developing, and temperatures rising slowly to reach about 8-10 C by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY is likely to bring very strong winds at times from a westerly direction, and a cold feel as temperatures fall back to around 6-8 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY, the oncoming Atlantic low will circle around and weaken somewhat, bringing further periods of rain, fog and drizzle, with temperatures generally near 8 C.

The further outlook calls for a milder period to develop again under southeast winds, despite an advance west across Europe of cold Russian air that will perhaps make it as far as western Germany or even Holland before losing its intensity and mixing in with a milder southeast flow over France. This could eventually lead to a colder day or two somewhere down the line, if the mild southeasterlies happen to get pushed too far west like around last New Years.

The weather across North America is changing slowly from the very mild pattern we have seen all November, to something looking more like very cold central and near normal on both coasts. This promises to fire up the Atlantic considerably around the energy peak 14-16 December that I would associate in my research with new moon. As a result, just as a speculative long-range forecast, much like it says in my winter outlook in that thread, look for a stormy period mid-month, possibly followed by rather cold weather around Christmas (white? probably not in most places, but at least a chance), and I'll throw in this detail -- another mild, windy system for New Years Eve.

Meanwhile, it has been raining most of the day here and it's quite mild at about 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 30 November, 2009
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Watch for some icy sections, local fog and black ice, and sun glare combining to make this morning's driving conditions rather tricky in places.

TODAY will be dry in most places, with some sunshine especially this morning, although there are some weak showers of soft hail (or snow) in parts of Connacht. This morning's nippy northerly wind will tend to die off by mid-day and some higher cloud will spread in from the southwest. Highs today will be around 5-7 C.

TONIGHT will see some clear spots in Ulster so that it may return to near freezing there for a while, but other regions should hold near 2-4 C before rising slowly towards 6 C as winds increase to SSE 20-30 mph. There is some chance of isolated sleet in central counties, before light rain sets in by morning.

TUESDAY will become windy from around sunrise with periods of rain, winds veering to SW 30-40 mph and temperatures rising to around 9-11 C.

WEDNESDAY will be similar, rather windy at times with showers or periods of rain, and fog developing in many areas; highs will be near 9 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see further light rain or showers, and moderate west to northwest winds, with highs near 7 or 8 C.

The weekend is likely to stay fairly mild, but the models have been giving very conflicting signals about developments beyond 5-6 days. There are suggestions of milder weather for a while, then a sharp cooling trend mid-month.

Sunday was a mild, dry day here with some fog, considerable cloud and temperatures near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 1 December, 2009
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TODAY ... Any lingering frost should rapidly moderate but there could be icy sections on roads in north central counties and parts of inland Ulster until about 0900. A misty light rain is setting in from the west, and could begin as sleet or freezing drizzle in a few of these locations. Otherwise, expect it to be cloudy and cold in eastern counties (but above freezing) until the mist or rain arrives later this morning. Then most areas will have several hours of this rain followed by brighter skies and milder air as winds veer to SW 20-30 mph. Highs will eventually reach 8-10 C.

TONIGHT will be rather windy at times and showery with lows near 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn a bit colder as showers become more mixed with hail, and sleet could return to higher elevations of Connacht. Winds will veer further to WNW 20-30 mph (and could be gustier at times in the southwest). Highs will be near 8 C.

THURSDAY will be a rather chilly and damp day with fog, light rain, sleet on higher ground, and possibly a touch of snow in a few higher locations too. Lows will be near 1-3 C and highs 5-7 C.

FRIDAY will be milder again with intervals of mist or light rain, and some sunshine breaking through at times. Highs will be closer to 10 C although a scattered light frost may start the day.

The weekend looks mild with periods of rain, and there are indications of a windy wet storm event around Tuesday 8th.

Here on Monday, we had a relatively pleasant day, some rain before noon but then it cleared up and reached about 10 C.

Here's something to mull over -- Thursday it could be 70 F in Boston and New York City. Friday it could be closer to 35 F. Then there's some chance of snow there from a weak offshore trailing wave on Saturday. This is the beginning of the storm system that we're tracking for middle of next week coming somewhere close to Ireland.

Discodog

OK I am in the West & I need to do a lot this week. Out of Wed, Thur & Fri which days are likely to have less showers ?.

maquiladora

Discodog wrote: »

OK I am in the West & I need to do a lot this week. Out of Wed, Thur & Fri which days are likely to have less showers ?.

Hard to say, but Friday might have the longest dry spells.

Discodog

Cheers but BBC are showing a lump of rain in the West for Friday - too early for timings yet. At least I can do a bit this afternoon once this batch of showers move away.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 2 December, 2009
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Full moon occurs today at 0732 GMT

TODAY will bring some locally heavy showers or thundershowers, but these are only covering about 20% of the country so there may also be some fairly long dry intervals. One batch of heavier showers is moving into the southwest this morning, while another is creeping slowly northeast towards Kildare from Laois. Winds will be rather light southerly ahead of a trough that will reach central Ireland by mid-afternoon; then they will become light northwesterly and pick up speed overnight. Highs today should vary from near 10 C in eastern counties, to 7-8 C in higher parts of western counties.

TONIGHT will bring rather strong west to northwest winds (30-50 mph) and more frequent showers mixing in with hail, sleet and mountain snow by morning. Lows will be around 4-6 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with widespread showers of hail, and some mountain snowfalls. Winds will continue rather blustery from the WNW (30-40 mph at times) and it will be quite chilly with highs of 5-7 C.

FRIDAY will bring milder weather and some dry intervals although another period of steady rain is likely by afternoon or evening. Winds will be lighter and back to the southwest. Highs will be near 10 C after a scattered light frost in the morning.

THE WEEKEND is looking fairly mild and unsettled. A strong storm is indicated for Tuesday of next week on the most recent guidance; this will have to be watched for gale force winds and heavy rains.

We had a very pleasant day here on Monday with clear skies and highs near 8 C; currently it is clear and about +2 C heading for a scattered frost by morning. Full moon makes it quite bright at almost 9 pm local time.

Duiske

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Friday will bring milder weather and some dry intervals although another period of steady rain is likely by afternoon or evening. Winds will be lighter and back to the southwest. Highs will be near 10 C after a scattered light frost in the morning.

M.T., the rain you mention for Friday looks like it could be quiet heavy, and could possibly stall for a time over eastern areas before moving away.
And with yet more potential for another spell of rain during the early hours of Sunday, do you think there would be high enough amounts to add to the flood problems ?

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 3 December, 2009
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TODAY will be rather cold and windy at times, with frequent showers of rain or hail, mixing with snow on higher elevations. Winds will be WNW 20-40 mph and highs only 6-8 C.

TONIGHT will remain rather windy and quite cold, with less frequent but wintry showers in some parts, especially higher elevations. Lows will reach about 0-2 C and there will be scattered light ground frost.

FRIDAY will become milder, with some morning sunshine possible, then thickening cloud followed by periods of rain and a rising southerly wind by evening. Highs will reach 10-12 C.

SATURDAY will be windy with periods of rain, winds SSW 30-50 mph (gusts to 60 mph west coast) and risk of about 20-35 mms of rain in total. Morning lows will be 6-8 C and highs 11-13 C.

SUNDAY will continue rather windy and not quite as mild with more showers, highs near 9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY should be fairly mild and breezy with showers. The current thinking on the deep Atlantic storm is that it will be quite intense out to the west of Irish coastal regions, but that its effects will be much worse out around 20 W than near the west coast (but still rather windy there, gusts to 55-65 mph possible; out in the Atlantic, more like 80-100 mph). This storm is currently being shown curving around towards Iceland with central pressures well down around 935 mbs. Let's hope it does stay that far off shore, as a closer approach could be quite damaging.

In the longer term, there are indications of more mild weather through most of next week, but colder weather in the following week.

We had our second consecutive clear, sunny day here on Wednesday, and a sharp frost earlier as well as another one developing outside now at 10:20 pm. Highs are about 8 C in this spell, and lows near -2 C.

Predicting highs of about 15-18 C in New York and Boston today, and it could even touch 20 C in some parts of the northeast U.S., with heavy rain. This is basically from the same low that approaches Ireland by Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday, 1940h
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Looks like a generally clear night ahead with some patchy frost developing. Cloud could begin spreading into the southwest before morning and so any sunshine tomorrow morning will be largely confined to the east and north.

The forecast remains about the same, with the latest guidance on the Tuesday (night) storm event showing it quite strong and edging a bit closer to Ireland than earlier guidance, but not close enough to push very strong winds across the whole country, just parts of Connacht (where I am sure they are used to it). I'm sure this will change in detail before the event.

Well, believe it or not, 21 C in Boston at this hour with sunshine and a strong westerly wind. There are temperatures above 18 C all over the northeast US at this time. The low that would become the Tuesday storm near Ireland is just starting to develop now along a front through the Gulf of Mexico. This is expected to run up along the cold front, once that passes off the coast tomorrow morning, and may brush some parts of the northeast US with a brief wet snowfall before winding up to hit eastern Canada harder on Sunday. Then it will be racing across the Atlantic, so I'll keep watching its progress closely.

We are enjoying a third consecutive sunny day here, although there seems to be more high cloud around today. It's rather cold but not as cold as it may get after a front moves south on Friday (late) to usher in arctic air from the northeast. Unlike you folks, we don't have any seas between us and the arctic air source, but we do have the warming effects of downsloping, so it usually arrives here about -4 C by day and -12 C by night, much warmer than they see inland from here.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 4 December, 2009
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TODAY, a few rural parts of the northeast could start out icy but most other counties have seen overcast skies develop, allowing temperatures to rise above freezing already ... in any case, the colder spots will gradually cloud over too and warm to about +3 C, then all eastern counties will see the light rain spreading in from the central parts of Ireland (western counties are almost done with this first round) ... this batch is not very heavy and will give 3-5 mms, then some breaks will develop in the overcast, followed by another heavier round of showers from west to east later today. Highs will become quite mild, 10-12 C generally. Winds will pick up somewhat to SSW 20-35 mph.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with showers or longer periods of rain, rising southerly winds and lows only 6-8 C.

SATURDAY will be windy with morning rain followed by variable skies and squally showers in some areas. Rainfalls of 15-30 mms are likely. Winds will increase to SSW 30-55 mph (higher gusts in coastal Mayo) and highs will be around 12-13 C.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy and breezy to windy, with a slight drop in temperature, occasional heavy showers that may contain hail and thunder, and winds SW 20-40 mph, with lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

MONDAY will be rather cool and windy with mixed wintry showers over higher ground and the northwest especially, but further south the changes will be more subtle -- highs will range from 6 C in the inland north to 10 C in the south.

TUESDAY we are still watching carefully to see how close to Connacht a very strong low decides to come -- the latest indications are fairly close but not quite close enough to cause concern for damaging winds on land. Out around 15-20 W it could be blowing a full hurricane at times (from the south) but figure on gusts to 70 mph on the exposed west coast, to 50 mph elsewhere further east. Some rain is likely to sweep through Ireland, probably early in the day, with this near-miss storm. At least I'm hoping it's a near miss. Highs will reach about 12 C.

The rest of the week should be breezy to windy and a bit colder with some episodes of mixed showers, but it will warm up again towards the weekend. There are indications of a more settled, frosty period to follow that, before Christmas, and the models keep flirting with advancing cold air from the far eastern parts of Europe.

It has recently clouded over here (at 10 p.m.) obscuring the moon, and it is rather cold, but about to turn even colder for us.

pauldry

Unsettled up to 10th Dec. There on it will be dry quiet and cloudy until 25th or 26th when rain will move in with showers some wintry by the end of the month.