Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

I think it's a possibility too, you can get thunder-snow or thunder-sleet either if you have strong frontal dynamics above the cold surface layers, or when sea-effect showers become intense. The lightning is generated somewhere around 2-4 km above the ground in these winter situations and is associated with heavy rates of falling precip, especially if there is ice involved at some layer above the surface.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 29 December, 2009
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TODAY will be windy and cold with periods of rain or sleet in the southern two-thirds of Ireland near sea level, more likely to be sleet or snow where it reaches the northern third although here it may be less continuous. At times the sleet on higher ground will turn to snow with 3-7 cms possible. Winds will continue E 25-45 mph adding quite a chill to daytime temperatures near 4 C on average, and as high as 8 C on the outer south coast. Some higher northern areas could stay as low as 1-2 C. Some of the rainfalls may be as heavy as 25-40 mms, and if you're up above 200 metres, you could get heavy falls of sleet, with snow falling mainly above 400 metres (asl).

TONIGHT will continue much the same with periods of rain or sleet, mixing at times with snow, and winds E 25-45 mph, lows near 2 C.

WEDNESDAY may see somewhat more snow in the mix as I expect the freezing levels to drop slightly bringing hill snows down to lower elevations as the day proceeds, the winds will back slightly to ENE 20-35 mph and with highs only 3-5 C it will feel very raw -- as the day turns to evening rain may be turning to snow.

THURSDAY (New Years Eve) will see considerably colder air on northeast winds and the possibility of heavy snowfalls replacing the rain and sleet by early morning, then trending more towards localized sea effect snow in the east and north as NE winds 20-40 mph rush across the Irish Sea. Highs near shore may reach 2 C but inland it may be as cold as -1 C, falling further by New Years Eve (night).

FRIDAY (New Years Day) there may be some further snow mainly in the east and north again, with wintry showers elsewhere, a few sunny intervals developing, and winds backing somewhat to a northerly direction by evening. Some of the east coast snow could be heavy.

THE WEEKEND following will be quite cold but more settled with longer dry intervals and some sunshine each day, very cold nights near -7 C inland, -3 C in Dublin and other large cities, but not rising much above freezing in the daytime.

The outlook beyond this weekend is for more cold, intervals with snow possible due to northeast or east winds, and temperatures continuing to average about 5 degrees below normal values.

We had a partly cloudy to overcast and rather cool day here, high of about 4 C, light winds. The cloud is preventing further ice formation as it remains 2 C at 9 pm local time. We have had a major virus attack on our home computer and I am out doing this forecast and other daily work, hoping to repair the damage tomorrow and get back on line.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 30 December, 2009
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TODAY will continue bleak and raw with a strong east wind, rain mixing with sleet, snow above 150 metres asl, and a trend towards more snow in the mix by afternoon. Temperatures are stalled out around 2-4 C and won't be rising much if at all, possibly dropping to 1-3 C by afternoon, as winds continue to blow from the east at 20-40 mph (areas around Limerick could see even stronger winds 30-50 mph as a stronger gradient develops in north Kerry, Limerick and Clare this afternoon).

TONIGHT will see what's left of rain or sleet turning to snow, with accumulations in many areas by morning (1-3 cms mostly, 3-7 cms on some hills). Winds will become NE 15-30 mph with lows near -1 C.

THURSDAY will become very cold with snow showers, squally at times, possible thunder-snow around Dublin, and accumulations that may range from 5 to 15 cms in eastern Ireland (2-5 cms more likely in the west). Some sun may get through the widespread cloud cover, and temperatures will stall near zero C (2-4 C near the east coast where wintry showers could become mixed with hail and sleet). Winds will be NE 20-40 mph. Parts of Ulster could see temperatures dropping to -4 C by evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT, New Year's Eve, will continue windy, very cold with local snow showers giving further accumulations of 2-5 cms, and temperatures dropping to about -3 C, with winds NE 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, passing snow showers, heavy in some eastern and northern counties, and very cold, winds NNE backing at times to NW, 15-25 mph, and highs only -2 to +2 C.

THE WEEKEND looks partly cloudy with longer clear intervals at night, some risk of freezing fog, very cold temperatures in the range of -7 to zero C for most places, and some further snowfalls although not much away from the north and northwest coasts.

Around Monday or Tuesday there may be another interval of cold east winds and snow mixing with hail at times, temperatures near zero C after another very cold morning on Monday near -8 C in places.

This cold spell really doesn't have much quit in it, with high pressure settled in quite snugly over southeast Greenland, and storms looping around in leisurely circles in the central to western Atlantic -- it all reminds one of the winters of the 1960s (some of the better ones). The big question is, can January sustain this pattern for 3-4 weeks and go into the record books as the "long awaited return to real winter," or will it give way to a milder pattern? I'm thinking that it may stay cold for 3-4 weeks.

As part of the developing strong El Nino, we seem to be heading for a mild, dry pattern although with some rain here on New Years Eve; tonight and tomorrow are expected to be cloudy and mild like Tuesday was (high of 6 C). A substantial snowfall is expected in New England this weekend (2-3 Jan).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 31 December, 2009
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TODAY will be windy and even colder than recent days, as temperatures begin to edge downwards from morning "highs" of 2-4 C to late afternoon readings closer to zero C. For most areas, it will be drier than yesterday, with a few brief showers of sleet turning more to snow. The Dublin area may see some heavier snow in bands of sea effect giving 3-10 cms locally (probably rain or sleet near the coast, snow a few kms inland, and definitely at higher elevations). Parts of Ulster will be hit with heavy snow later today, 5-10 cms possible in NI, but 2-4 cms in Donegal. The rain currently still lashing parts of Kerry (turning to snow) should end about mid-morning. Winds today will continue very brisk, NE 30-50 mph, but inland locations may see a bit of relief later.

TONIGHT will see further snow in the Dublin area and in parts of Ulster, while most of the country otherwise is clear to partly cloudy and dry, with strong NE winds and bitter cold temperatures falling to about -5 C inland, -2 C even near the coasts. Some locally heavy snow may fall but only in narrow bands.

(Happy New Year ... near -1 C at midnight, I would suggest that the hugging and the kissing be indoors mainly).

NEW YEARS DAY will be bright and cold with decreasing winds backing more to N then NW, meaning that snow showers will fade in the east and may begin to affect Donegal, Connacht and even parts of Kerry. Highs will reach about 2 C at best, and possibly only -1 C inland. Local snowfalls of 5-10 cms may develop in the sea-effect bands.

THE WEEKEND will continue cold and locally snowy, mostly near north and west facing coasts. Some sunshine may break through cloud elsewhere, and the temperatures will range from morning lows near -8 C to afternoon highs of about -1 C. Stronger east winds will return later Sunday and it could begin to snow across the inland south with sleet near the south coasts.

MONDAY-TUESDAY brings the risk of snow or sleet in the south and sea-effect snow in the east, with biting cold east winds 30-50 mph and temperatures as low as -3 C north, +2 C south.

LATER in the week, it's looking very cold with northeast winds and local snow mainly east and north. Temperatures could be as cold as -10 C at night and -3 C in the daytime in some parts.

Still not seeing any credible signs of major warming at any point, although some models try their luck with it. Here, we had a mild, somewhat rainy day with a high near 8 C.

Oliverdog

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Thursday, 31 December, 2009
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(Happy New Year ... near -1 C at midnight, I would suggest that the hugging and the kissing be indoors mainly).

The best kind ! Happy New Year to you and yours, MT.

ffarrell

Light hail shower here in Castleknock, Dublin but much colder than yesterday. Becoming cloudy.:D

paulhac

Happy New Year M.T. and thanks again for all your contributions.

L.O.F.T

And a big thanks here too. Your my first stop before I decide if im going golfing and what may lay in store for us on the course. Keep up the great work.

gonker

Thank you MT for your knowledge and time during the year. I always rely on you . May you and yours have a happy and healthy new year.

hellboy99

Happy New Year to you and your family MT and everyone else here on the boards

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 1 January, 2010
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Yes really, it is ... or will be soon.

TODAY will be very cold and with the exception of some flurries or heavier bursts of snow in the southeast, and later in Donegal (as well as parts of NI) most places will remain dry with some sunny intervals. The highest temperatures will struggle to reach -1 or zero C. Winds will become lighter today and from more of a northerly direction but with local variations.

TONIGHT will see some heavier snow moving south into counties adjacent to Donegal, and also as far south as perhaps Westmeath from Ulster, and some amounts of 4-8 cms are possible, in a moderate northwest wind of 10-20 mph. There may be light flurries elsewhere as this snow breaks up into lighter cells before dissipating. Lows will likely be colder in the south central inland counties due to a longer period with clear skies, reaching -8 C in places, while with the snow it's likely to hold near -3 C.

SATURDAY will continue rather snowy in the north and more cloudy in the south, as winds continue to back to almost a westerly direction at times. There could be some sleety showers even in the southwest near sea level and certainly snow at higher elevations. Some sun may break through in the southeast mainly. Highs will reach only -3 to +1 C.

SUNDAY it now appears that the storm expected to pass to the south of Ireland has fizzled out somewhere on its erratic journey so unless it reappears, we're now talking about more of the same, dry cold weather with local snowfalls in sea effect bands, this time more on the east coast again as winds turn back to the ENE at 10-25 mph. It will be another very cold day with lows of -9 to -5 C and highs of about -2 C (possibly +2 C south coast).

From then on, I think the details may continue to change slightly closer to the times, so I'll just say continued very cold with more occasional snowfalls here and there, nothing too widespread or heavy, but a few places picking up 3-5 cms at a time. Some even colder temperatures could be recorded, around Thursday or Friday it looks conceivable that -12 C might be recorded in the usual cold spots and -7 C quite widely across the country.

Signs of any breakdown are probably more in the minds of the models than anywhere else, the global models tend to revert to some kind of default setting after 10-15 days unless they have a very strong signal otherwise, so if you're a model watcher, bear in mind that trends beyond ten days in these blocking patterns can be quite bogus.

Meanwhile, in a rather different weather pattern, we had some light rain and highs of about 7 C here on New Years Eve. It is now drizzling and foggy at about 9:30 pm local time.

Happy New Year and enjoy the snow if you've got it.

DOCARCH

Happy New Year MT (from a snowy Dublin ).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 2 January, 2010
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TODAY will start out dry and in some southern counties sunny, and very cold, but the northern half of the country will be cloudy and will see occasional snow showers (mixing with sleet near the north Ulster coast) dropping 3-7 cms of snow in some places (rather hit or miss though). Western counties may see a few bursts of heavier snow at times as well, but amounts will be generally 1-3 cms. This snow will probably reduce to a few light flurries as it moves further south later in the day, while the north begins to clear slowly. Highs will range from about -3 C in coldest parts of the inland south, and higher parts of the cloudy north, to near zero or +1 C in some coastal districts with an onshore wind.

TONIGHT will find the heavier snow repositioning to the east coast at times as winds become more northeasterly again. The Dublin area and Wicklow could see some accumulations of 3-5 cms. Other parts of the country will probably clear slowly and become very cold with local ice fog, widespread icy roads, and lows of about -9 to -5 C (south coast closer to -2 C).

SUNDAY will continue with east coast flurries or heavier bursts of snow, with partly to mostly sunny and cold conditions further west, highs of about -2 C on average, and winds NE 15-30 mph with some higher gusts adding quite a chill.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and very cold with local flurries, morning lows of about -10 to -5 C, and afternoon highs of -3 to +1 C.

TUESDAY there may be a burst of heavier snow again as northeast winds strengthen, but the forecast for the week changes only slightly from day to day, as the cold spell continues unchallenged. There continues to be no really strong signal of an end to this spell or any significant warming, which is not to say that it can't happen, but I am speculating that it could hold for much of January; the very end of the month could turn milder but stormy.

Meanwhile, by contrast, it is very mild and raining here, with today's high close to 10 C (the daily record was 12 C in 1940, hmmm).

rainbow kirby

Never thought I'd say this, but I'd kill for a bout of 10C wet weather right about now. :mad:

redsteveireland

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

........There continues to be no really strong signal of an end to this spell or any significant warming, which is not to say that it can't happen, but I am speculating that it could hold for much of January.........

:eek: Not what i wanted to hear, no money and the oil is running low.......come back rain all is forgiven!

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 7:40 p.m.
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The weak trough moving south managed to stir up a little more warmth than earlier estimated, which is why some places (notably Dublin) have seen a rise in temperatures to about 3-4 C with drizzly showers left over from the earlier snow or sleet in the north. However, most of this activity has now faded out and the colder air will seep back in from the northeast overnight. This may not drop temperatures uniformly in all parts of the country, it will depend on how fast the low cloud layers break up, some places could drop quite fast to about -5 C then more slowly as freezing fog develops. Other places will drop slowly to about -2 C with the freezing fog possible there too, so roads across the country are likely to become more icy again overnight. Eventually, some weak sea-effect streamers of mixed sleet or snow could arrive in the Dublin region and further south, as the winds come in from the NNE overnight.

In the longer term, it appears that tomorrow may not be quite as cold as earlier expected, the most likely range of maximum temperatures would be -2 to +4 C depending on how readily the fog breaks up. Beyond that, however, the models continue to insist on strong northeasterly flow at bitterly cold temperature levels, and despite a few somewhat milder looking days well on into mid-month, the governing circulation features, high near Iceland and lows over Germany and France, do not really shift that much, and there are no signs of the Atlantic roaring back to life, the storm track from the eastern United States is likely to run northeast then north across Newfoundland into the Baffin Island region.

There's quite a storm developing tonight south of Nova Scotia which is about to do a 48-hour loop back to the west, bringing heavy snow to New England tomorrow. Some parts of Maine could see over 20 inches of snow! Boston MA is likely to see more like 10-12 inches, but with strong winds blowing it around. There are also problems for coastal flooding with the continual northeast winds piling up very high water levels in Cape Cod Bay. Meanwhile here today, more of the rain and 10 C, if I could shift it over your way, I would do it quite gladly because I miss seeing the sun.

dublincelt

Happy new year M.T. Your weather forecasts are the one thing I check each morning. I trust your forecast more than I would from our national met service. And to be honest they are extremely reliable and I find them very informative.

All the best from Carlow.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 3 January, 2009
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TODAY will continue quite cold with a locally gusty east wind, a few heavier snow showers moving inland around Dublin to reach points as far west as central Ireland at times, but with quite variable accumulations of 2-7 cms possible. Some of these showers could be sleety near the coast. Otherwise, the day should produce some sunshine but with rather thick higher cloud layers covering the south (this is the only actual result of that sleet/rain storm that the models wanted to produce a few days ago, it moved further south). Winds will be ENE 20-35 mph adding quite a chill to daytime highs that may vary from -1 C inland, to +5 C near the east coast (but it will feel colder).

TONIGHT and MONDAY will continue partly cloudy, cold and breezy, but any snow should be rather light and localized. The morning lows will be in the range of -8 to -2 C and the afternoon highs around -1 to +4 C. There is worse to come ...

TUESDAY, expect a stronger and even colder northeast wind (25-45 mph) bringing in moderate to heavy snow showers especially in Ulster and the Leinster coast. Morning lows will be -4 to -1 C and afternoon highs near zero C. Snowfalls of about 5-15 cms are possible (this to be updated).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY will be a very cold period with widespread snow in cold northeast winds of 25-45 mph. Temperatures will be severely below normal especially considering the wind chill and snow, ranging from -8 to -2 C on average (possibly a bit higher near the east coast but windier there).

This cold spell could continue at almost these levels for several more days to come, as the longer range models do little more than try to return this flow to a default position without really changing the shape of the circulation, an unbroken stream of cold air from Scandinavia. The best one could expect is a moderation of a few degrees but that could keep being postponed in reality.

More updates as needed, I would be preparing for the severe conditions by using the relatively hospitable weather today and Monday (and in some parts that may seem like thin fare indeed).

Elmo5

thanks for the warning MT!

glimmerman123

I hope you and your's had a happy and peaceful Christmas M.T.It's Partly cloudy but bitterly cold here in North Tipperary at the moment. We haven't seen much snow during this long cold spell. Listening to the weekly forecast by Met Eireann today it looks like the east and north will see some snow showers over the coming week.For the rest of us it is going to stay very cold during the day with severe frosts at night well into next weekend.I hope we see some snow before the kids go back to school on Thursday. I will continue to check your reliable forecast for updates.

Redsunset

Come on now M T,tell us we'll be needing the snow ploughs soon:D

Im still waiting on my first flake.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 4 January, 2010
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With a possible snow event due tonight and Tuesday, and yours truly likely to be off duty through the day, I would strongly advise anyone seeking updates to check in with the current discussion thread, it is bound to be an active place today. I will be aiming to update my forecast this evening around 6-7 p.m.

TODAY will start out quite icy especially where light snow or hail has already fallen, such as Dublin and parts of Ulster. The snow in Ulster, amounting to 1-2 cms will be moving slowly south and could become a bit heavier at times, while the activity near Dublin will probably tend to die out as winds turn more to the west ahead of this northern trough. Other parts of Ireland will be clear to partly cloudy with local freezing fog for the rest of the morning and may see an increase in cloud but only very light and widely scattered flurries. Eventually it could warm to about -1 to +2 C under variable amounts of cloud and a light northerly wind backing to westerly 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT another trough will develop across the north, this time bringing heavier amounts of snow (probably mixed with sleet near the coast), and this snow is likely to move south through most of the country except for the south coast, before sunrise, with lows ahead of the snowfall falling to -7 to -4 C before rising during the snowfall to about -2 C. Winds tonight will turn more northerly and eventually NNE 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY will see further snowfall, heavy at times in eastern and northern counties. Amounts will be quite variable but may range from 3 to 15 cms. Some places on the west and south coast may escape more than a few light flurries. It will be quite cold, the streamers near the east coast may bring in some above-freezing temperatures at times, but elsewhere highs will only reach about -2 to zero C. Winds will be NE 20-35 mph adding significant chill. Roads are likely to be very icy especially on hills.

WEDNESDAY will bring further snowfall and gusty NE winds with a temperature range from about -5 to -1 C. Any places that manage to clear in the early morning could fall to -8 C or lower. The snowfall amounts seen on Tuesday may be matched or even exceeded on Wednesday (5-20 cms possible, although not everyone will see more than a cm or two). The daytime hours for most will be more cloudy than sunny but sunshine will increase towards the west coast.

THURSDAY is likely to see similar conditions although not as windy, and therefore perhaps not quite as much snowfall, 1-3 cms more on average. This will leave some parts of the east, notably the higher ground in Dublin and Wicklow, buried in about a foot or more of new snow by the end of the week. I'm thinking that on average, lower portions of the east may see half that much in total and other parts of the country except Ulster may see a few inches here and there, but Ulster will have some higher areas seeing about a foot as well. The temperature range on Thursday is likely to be -9 to -2 C on average (except mins -5 C in more built up parts of Dublin and possibly -2 near the coast, similar variations around other large towns and cities).

FRIDAY will continue cold and mostly dry but with some chance of localized snowfalls. With all the fresh snowfall, this may be the day recording some of the lowest overnight lows, but that can be addressed later this week, the potential exists for a -12 C reading somewhere in central Ireland.

THE OUTLOOK is for more settled, dry and cold weather, and possibly a very slight and gradual warming trend, although as I've indicated before, I don't trust these model promises when there's no strong and obvious signal for them. The weekend could also have some very cold overnight readings especially if the ECM model is correct in placing a 1030 mb high near Donegal.

Sunday in my enclave of warmth proved to be the warmest day in about a month, with a high near 11 C under mostly cloudy skies, although the sun was dimly visible at mid-day. I feel almost guilty mentioning this, and yet we have the Winter Olympics. Strange, very strange. :cool:

Redsunset

Perhaps a light dusting monday night ,Tuesday morning.

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

. The weekend could also have some very cold overnight readings especially if the ECM model is correct in placing a 1030 mb high near Donegal.

Nice thanks , what does the 1030 mb high mean or entail?

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 9 p.m.
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The high expected to drift closer to Donegal by the weekend would create a stronger inversion and with clear skies and any fresh snow gained this week, set the stage for some very cold readings by Friday and through the weekend.

The snow situation seems to be developing about as expected. As of the latest observations, I think there is a weak warm sector covering the western third of Ireland with a wave near Roscommon moving south. This is followed by a band of sleet and snow in Ulster that seems to be turning to all snow as it moves further inland and encounters colder air and surface conditions.

Overnight, as this warm sector and cold front move further south, the warmth of the western air mass will also tend to decrease, meaning that if it starts to rain in counties like Galway, Clare or Kerry, it could turn to snow before morning. Otherwise, it's more likely to start as sleet or snow and become a steady snowfall in other places. Amounts will be generally light but could reach 5 cms in a few places; however, heavier snow is likely to develop shortly after sunrise when colder air still arrives from the northeast and pushes snow streamers into the east coast.

More updates as necessary.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 5 January, 2010
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TODAY, mixed showers of snow and sleet will be dying out over the southeast this morning, with other scattered showers of sleet or snow coming ashore in Donegal and western Mayo in a brisk N-NE wind developing there. In between, most places will have a cloudy to partly cloudy morning with colder air seeping in from a NNE direction, then watch for snow to develop from the Irish Sea in the eastern Ulster, Meath, Dublin and Wicklow regions by mid-day to afternoon. The snow streamers will tend to hug the coast and the Wicklow mountains at first (due to wind direction) but may begin to extend further inland by late afternoon and evening. These have the potential to drop 5-10 cms of snow fairly quickly, so road travel may be disrupted in a few locations. Meanwhile, much of the rest of the country will remain dry and cold with the risk of a few heavier snow showers in Connacht and Ulster. Highs today will be held down to this morning's readings, in other words, it won't get much warmer than you see at first light (-1 to +2) except in a few outer west coast locations where it could reach +5 C.

TONIGHT will see the east and southeast under a snowfall watch (the forum will be busy, in other words) and it's quite possible that heavy snow could either develop or continue from the afternoon there, giving 5-10 cms locally. Winds across the country will be increasing due to low pressure development in southern England, to reach NE 20-40 mph. There could be outbreaks of snow on a wider scale as sea-effect streamers make better progress inland to cover much of eastern and southern counties. It will be bitterly cold with temperatures falling to about -3 C in the snow and -7 C in any clearer districts outside the snowfall.

WEDNESDAY will see further snow in the southeast on gusty NE winds 20-40 mph (Wicklow and Wexford could see gusts to 50 mph). The rest of the country will have scattered snow showers, some sunny breaks, and bitterly cold highs of about -2 C or lower inland. Not that many will try going up any hills or mountains, but conditions near summits will be quite arctic, winds NE 30-50 mph, blowing snow and temperatures near -8 C.

THURSDAY will see less windy conditions, but a continuation of the bitter cold and some leftover snow showers still mostly in the east and southeast but scattered around northern and western coastal areas as well. Lows will be generally -8 to -5 C and highs around -1 C. Some long spells of sunshine may develop in the central counties.

FRIDAY and the WEEKEND are likely to bring even colder temperatures especially at night as higher pressure develops near Ireland to the north, and therefore we could be seeing lows down in the -12 C range in some places, and highs struggling to get past -3 C, although with more sunshine than during the week (unless there are patches of persistent freezing fog or low cloud).

The indications for any substantial warming trend are mixed and not very encouraging but I would say there may be some thawing days before January comes to an end, however, there may be a long spell of bitter cold first.

Monday here was a rather mild and showery day with a high near 10 C.

In any case, patience if you're a snow lover, the best conditions are probably going to develop after mid-day and last through much of tonight and tomorrow.

FlutterinBantam

Jaysus MT.... Fedex over some freakin grit.:eek::D

M.T. Cranium

Seriously, we have piles of it around here that we're not using. It has snowed once here all winter (last year, a month of heavy snow from about 10 Dec to 15 Jan). Here's my winter driving tip -- don't.

Mothman

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Tuesday, 5 January, 2010
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(the forum will be busy, in other words)

Well MT this insight won't set you aside.
The rest does! Thanks as always

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 1155h
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Heavy snow showers are now being reported in many parts of the northwest, especially Donegal, Sligo and Mayo, and could be moving further south later today; snowfalls are probably going to be in the 3-7 cm range locally.

Snow streamers just offshore from Dublin to Wexford are quite likely to drift ashore mid-afternoon to evening, and there could be a period of heavier snowfall in southeastern counties overnight and Wednesday morning in association with strong low pressure being indicated to form tonight over southwest England. This will turn the winds from the current NNW to N direction, to NNE then NE and bring this snow onto land, also, the winds will increase as the gradient develops around the low.

Snowfalls of 10-20 cms are possible in all parts of southeast Ireland in this period, but especially in east-facing higher parts of Dublin, Wicklow and Wexford. Although few people will see it, even heavier snowfalls will probably fall on higher summits in the area. Winds will increase to NE 20-40 mph and even stronger at times near Wexford and Rosslare.

As always, check the active threads for further updates -- I am checking out for a while (0400 where I am) -- confidence on this southeast snow is moderate rather than high just because of the model uncertainty, if the models have this development right, then I feel that the snow has to follow.