Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Joe Public

Yes, I'm also very surprised this big blob on top of us now got written off as a few showers on the weather after the 9pm news.

M.T. Cranium

Remember a few days ago the models were showing a wave moving north on Thursday night, with a bit more of a circulation than what actually happened?

But that energy is still there, it just failed to leave much of an imprint on the isobars. I think the steady rain should taper off once this wave moves north, but it looks as though for example western Galway and Mayo will see some heavier bursts overnight (20-30 mms locally), and more generally the central part of the country could see a further 15 mms. At this point, you just don't need any more anywhere.

The 18z GFS kept up the general themes discussed earlier, it's not looking any worse for max wind speeds and perhaps a touch better for Sunday, but I'll leave any forecast updates for the morning.

maquiladora

M.T. on the 9pm news here, Met Eireann showed a chart for Sunday 12:00 that had the low closer to Ireland than the 18Z GFS shows and with tighter isobars over the country. The forecaster said the low would move "very close to us" and potentially generate "very strong winds".

M.T. Cranium

Yep, the 18z GFS may have weakened the storm a little too much, so waiting to see how the 00z consensus turns out. I am keeping a very open mind on how strong this weekend system could be, the overall set-up remains very conducive to maximum deepening and models have some trouble with extreme development before about 48h.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 20 November, 2009
_________________________

TODAY will provide some welcome relief from the rain and cloud, although there will be a few isolated and generally light showers mixed in with some sunny breaks and also more moderate winds WSW 15-30 mph in most places, occasionally gusting to 40 mph near the west coast. Highs today will be about 11 C.

TONIGHT will start out dry and perhaps clear in some eastern counties, but cloud will rapidly overspread around midnight with rain arriving by morning in the southwest, as winds back to southerly and begin to rise to 30-50 mph in exposed south coast and western counties. It won't get this windy until after sunrise in the east. Lows will be about 7-9 C (it could fall lower briefly in rural eastern counties).

SATURDAY will become very windy as SSW gales of 40-70 mph develop, with higher gusts mostly expected near the south and west coasts. There is still some potential for higher gusts in this phase, and periods of rain will drop another 15-30 mms of rain, followed by squally showers or thundershowers with hail as winds veer a little more to the SW by afternoon. Highs of about 11 or 12 C can be expected; it will feel colder in the wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT, any reduction in wind speed will be short-lived and then followed by stronger SW winds before daybreak, as squally showers continue to pelt most regions under very strong winds of 45-75 mph. Lowest temperatures will be about 6 C but colder at high elevations, with hail or a bit of snow possible well above 300 metres.

SUNDAY will be a cold and blustery day with temperatures staying in the range of 7 to 9 C mostly, and passing showers of rain or hail, with snow possible on higher peaks. There will be a constant strong wind in the range of 50-80 mph from the WSW but potential for gusts to as high as 100 mph in exposed locations and on higher slopes. Watch for updates as the storm develops. Much depends on the exact track and intensity of the low; the current forecast models are showing a slightly less extreme solution than a worst-case scenario but there is also room for a slight downgrade. Precip amounts may be fairly moderate (10-15 mms) but variable from place to place due to the showery nature.

MONDAY should see a bit of improvement in the wind although it will remain in the 30-50 mph range, with slightly milder air working its way east at 10-11 C, and showers or periods of light rain (10-15 mm potential).

TUESDAY into WEDNESDAY, another strong wind and rain event appears possible. Wind gusts to 70 mph from the south to southwest, and rainfall amounts of 20-30 mms, are currently indicated with this next storm, with highs of about 11-12 C.

Colder air should then arrive on more of a west to northwest wind, and while skies should brighten, a few more mixed showers could be expected as temperatures fall to around 7 C by day and 1-3 C by night.

Watch for updates ... the 06z GFS will soon be rolling out.

Here, I have about the same weather misery, constant strong winds and occasional pelting rain with temps barely holding around 7-8 C. It sounds like a strong front is coming through here now.

Deep Easterly

M.T. What part of Canada do you reside in? I am intrigued because you seem to get the same weather as us, and sometimes at the same time! :eek:

kerry1960

He lives in the Vancouver area Pat, a beautiful city for sure but if they get the same weather as we do then Lord help them .

M.T. Cranium

There are times when we're in very similar patterns, and apart from the exact timing of fronts, about the same sequence of weather. We've been a little more in a westerly than a southwesterly upper flow recently, so our storms have been a little less moist, although about as windy.

Around here, it can rain very heavily for days on end at this time of year, and local urban flooding is frequently a problem but as the city was developed largely in the second half of the 20th century there was at least some concept of not settling or building on known flood plains, so this flooding tends to come up and cover roads, farm fields and some industrial parks, but it is rare for houses or major transport links to be affected. That applies to the large flattish areas of the city. Up on the slopes of the north shore mountains (which rise to 6,000 ft) there are places where mudslides can be a lethal hazard, entire houses can slide down slopes in these. The creeks and rivers on the north shore are all in deep ravines so if they flooded, it would mean very little to the human population. They tend not to, because all of them are dammed for water supplies to the region not far from the coast.

Around the coast towards Whistler, there are places where the highway has been rebuilt so that the mountain creeks are diverted far below them in case they get choked by debris; back in 1981 the highway was washed out by one of these events when 10-15 inches of rain hit the region, melted snow, and just totally obliterated one of these creeks. And far back in the past, a small mining town on the coast was washed out to sea by one of these debris torrent floods, as they are known (the debris forms a temporary dam, holds back a lot of water, then it all comes down together). That sort of event was very common in the early days of settlement out here, it also hit some mining towns well away from the coast too.

The only part of the year that is much different here is mid-summer. We tend to get a reliable period of hot, sunny weather here because we are closer to the Pacific high than you are to the Azores high, and so it is normal for us to have a hot, dry end to July and start to August. This may last a lot longer in a good year, and can be almost absent in a bad year, but the "summer drought" is a normal event here. I would say from October to June, you would not see much difference in our climates, the other slight difference is that it can snow here a little more frequently and when it turns cold, it drops to about -5 C with nights near -12 C, but sometimes that only lasts a few days, in between cold spells, our January weather is as mild as yours normally. It can be 12 C here in December or January.

So, an update for the approaching weekend storm ...

Latest guidance indicates that the wind potential for Sunday mid-day has increased to the point where I am issuing an ALERT for widespread wind gusts to 90 m.p.h near the west coast and in upland areas (with potential to 110 m.p.h.)., very large waves (8-15 m) on and near the west coast, waves to 6 metres off the south coast, and more extensive country-wide gusts to 70 m.p.h.

This could all downgrade again, but at this point, the track has shifted so close to Donegal Bay that the maximum force of the storm is likely to hit directly around mid-day, after buidling up all night and Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, the first wave coming in Saturday morning should be rather fast-developing and will hit fairly hard around Cork and Waterford with very strong southerly wind gusts possible there around 0600-0900. This front will rotate rapidly north and bring a brief interval of stormy weather to many other parts of Ireland around mid-day Saturday. Winds could be very gusty anywhere at higher elevations or near exposed coasts. Some gusts to 80 mph are possible although on Saturday, a lot of places will probably escape with 50-60 mph peak gusts.

More updates as I see them ... it's raining here, we didn't get the nice break between systems, the last one just stalled over top of us.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 21 November, 2009
__________________________

A two-part storm will rapidly develop this morning, with the first wave likely to move through the south before noon, and then on to the central and northern counties by afternoon. There may be a brief lull in the stormy conditions this evening but winds will gradually increase overnight to reach a peak around mid-day Sunday, lasting in many places for many hours into the early hours of Monday.

This forecast is going out a bit early to catch any early risers but I will keep updating the progress of "part one" of the storm as well as updating the prospects for Sunday as later information hits the desk, so to speak.

TODAY, the south will see very rapid increases in wind and heavy rain will develop, becoming squally at times with thunder and lightning possible. Winds will start off SE 30-50 mph, rise to S 40-65 mph and end up SSW 50-70 mph briefly before settling back to SW 30-50 mph again -- the afternoon in the south may be a little more tolerable with some sunny breaks, but meanwhile, this gusty storm front will move north through the rest of the country bringing the same sequence of weather, perhaps with somewhat less wind speed further east and north. Any given place could see a heavy squally thunderstorm out of this too. Rainfalls of 20-30 mms appear likely, bringing renewed flooding risks. Highs will reach about 12-13 C mostly after the front passes. Winds will be very strong offshore too, reaching force 10-11 at times.

TONIGHT, cloudy skies with rising winds will foretell a strong windstorm arriving in the west coast counties in the early morning hours, and breaking on the rest of the country after sunrise. Winds will generally be SW 30-50 mph but will rise to 50-80 mph near the west coast before 0700h. Overnight lows will be about 7 C to near 10 C in the southwest.

SUNDAY will see persistent strong winds from the WSW, veering gradually more to the W and achieving speeds of about 55 mph with gusts to about 90 mph in exposed locations. There will be a risk of locally tornadic wind streaks with any well-developed waterspouts or hail shower cells both near the coast and inland, in all parts of Ireland.

Force 11-12 winds will develop in marine areas, there will be huge waves (8-15 m) and swells on the west coast especially but also off the south coast, and around high tides there could be overtopping of seawalls especially in places like Galway exposed to a west wind. There will also be some squally showers as well as longer periods of rain but the sun could be out briefly too. Highs will be about 10-11 C but it will feel more like 5 C which would be the temperature up on higher slopes where winds could reach 100 mph -- climbing is definitely not recommended. Hail and snow could be falling frequently on higher slopes all day.

MONDAY will see a bit of a break from the stormy weather but it will still be rather blustery and cool with passing showers and highs near 11 C, winds westerly 30-50 mph, with some afternoon sunny intervals possible.

TUESDAY, yet another strong storm approaches, and after some morning rain and high winds, there could be brief clearing followed by another period of storm force winds around evening to midnight across the country (SSW 50-80 mph veering to W 40-70). Highs will reach about 12 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are looking rather windy still with a gradual cooling trend as winds swing around to more westerly then northwesterly, 20-40 mph on average, with daily highs falling off from about 9 C to 7 C.

Even colder air could be trying to work its way south towards Ireland next weekend, but my hunch is that it may be held back by weak waves of low pressure in advance of a resurgence of mild southwest flow into the first week of December.

Watch for updates on developments.

My weather has been rather dramatic, we had some thunder and lightning around here at 1730h local time and an offshore station reported some gusts to 110 mph indicating perhaps a weak tornado or waterspout embedded in a meso-scale squall line. This has moved across the urban area and well off to the east now, and I am waiting to hear any news of damage from localized winds, we didn't have any gusts here, just the lightning strikes. It may have been isolated to the offshore buoy but the same area was hit by a small tornado a few years ago which did considerable damage to the regional container port. This reminds me to place the same kind of risk factor in your Sunday forecast (waterspouts moving inland as weak tornadoes).

nkay1985

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Meanwhile, the first wave coming in Saturday morning should be rather fast-developing and will hit fairly hard around Cork and Waterford with very strong southerly wind gusts possible there around 0600-0900. This front will rotate rapidly north and bring a brief interval of stormy weather to many other parts of Ireland around mid-day Saturday. Winds could be very gusty anywhere at higher elevations or near exposed coasts. Some gusts to 80 mph are possible although on Saturday, a lot of places will probably escape with 50-60 mph peak gusts.

You were right there anyway! I was driving to work at 08:30. The rain was bucketing down and there were severe winds. Sitting in work now and it sounds like the corrugated roof is going to blow off the factory. Maybe it will and I'll get to go home!

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 6 p.m.
_____________________

The exact details of how bad the storm will get overnight and Sunday will depend somewhat on where squally lines of showers set up but there is no change to the basic outlook, steadily rising winds and large waves setting in especially after midnight.

The low centre is currently around 20 W and is still deepening. There is a small area near the M6 buoy with a slacker circulation but this will probably not reach land as the storm reorganizes and phases more with an area of strong winds near the M3 buoy at present.

Tomorrow will be one of those days when the weather board is very active and you'll have lots of information on the storm thread, the observations, and a few other places too; meanwhile, I suspect I may have to get a big pot of coffee going later on so I can watch the storm unfold all night here.

I'll be trying to pick out any tornadic wind gust risks from radar, hopefully these will avoid towns and may go unseen, like the one around here apparently did yesterday (no wind damage reports have come in yet, just the report of heavy hail along the inland track of the radar echoes ... it was probably a waterspout that hit the marine buoy).

Deep Easterly

Had some really squally thundery showers here already MT. What do you think the chances of thunder are over the next 24hrs?

kerry1960

One such squall past through here @1pm , very intense hail with frequent thunder with some close strikes , only lasted a matter of minutes but in that time the temp dropped from 12.4 to 7.1c , could be a rough 24hrs ahead for many on the Western seaboard.

Storm 10

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Had some really squally thundery showers here already MT. What do you think the chances of thunder are over the next 24hrs?

Check this link which shows where the lightning is

http://www.laoisweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=49&Itemid=59

kerry1960

Storm 10 wrote: »

Check this link which shows where the lightning is

http://www.laoisweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=49&Itemid=59

Yes indeed , Dannos lightning detector going to be busy in the coming hours ....unless lightning knocks out his power supply .

maquiladora

M.T. if you are staying up to track this storm, this might come in handy for you...

http://www.irelandsweather.com/index.php

http://www.irelandsweather.com/wxbuoys.php

Danno

kerry1960 wrote: »

Yes indeed , Dannos lightning detector going to be busy in the coming hours ....unless lightning knocks out his power supply .

LOL - And my UPS box is gone end of life so if any power cuts do come it will be staying offline until I go out and reload the PC in the shed. There have been three power cuts already since wednesday, most occuring in the small hours of the morning.

JUST ONE WORD OF WARNING: While reading the map... The Wicklow Mtns have a habit of knocking the signal about... i.e. there is a storm way out over the Irish Sea at 7.40pm this evening, but the mountains interfere with alot of the signal, so it seems it is in E Carlow, W Wicklow. The best way is to keep an eye on the rainfall radar and try to match the nearest strike signals to determine where storms actually are.
Also, around sunset/sunrise (2hrs either side of) strikes are quite unreliable.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 22 November, 2009
____________________________

TODAY, very strong winds will develop rapidly this morning, with a few squally showers well out ahead of the main band of blustery squalls. If you read this early and have sunny skies and relatively light winds, the storm should be arriving soon, about 0700h in the central counties and 0900h on the east coast. In general, expect winds gusting to at least 60 mph from the WSW and closer to 80 mph near the west coast. Any more vigorous showers could bring locally storm force winds too, and there is a slight risk of tornadic development around mid-day. Rainfall amounts should be generally 5-10 mms but could be locally heavier. Highs will reach about 10 C (perhaps 12 C in the southeast). Temperatures will tend to fall slightly in the afternoon and it will be sharply colder at higher elevations. Hail, thunder and mountain peak snow are all in the mix too, as well as high waves, swells and possible coastal flooding.

TONIGHT will continue windy but it will settle down to about 30-50 mph from the WNW by about midnight, with periods of light rain continuing on and off, with lows of about 5 C.

MONDAY will be breezy and a bit milder again, with some intervals of light rain, and some chance of the sun breaking out at times by afternoon. Highs will be near 12 C.

TUESDAY will bring another round of rain, strong S to SW winds gusting to about 60 mph, and highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY NIGHT is still expected to be almost as windy as today with squally showers and winds SW 50-80 mph at times.

WEDNESDAY will continue quite windy from the west and it will begin to turn a bit colder with mixed wintry showers possible on higher ground especially, and highs of about 8 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will bring a further cooling trend, somewhat reduced wind speeds although still quite breezy at times, with the chance of snow on higher ground, hail showers at times closer to sea level, but some sunny intervals in the mix, with daily highs of about 6 or 7 C, and light frosts when skies clear and winds drop off a bit.

My weather Saturday has been cloudy, mostly dry until rain started this evening, and chilly (5-6 C). It is probably snowing just above my elevation.

Watch for updates, I think the storm is just moving onto the west coast now.

Redsunset

Met Eireann increases wind speed to 130km.

Headline: Stormy today with heavy showers. A stormy day ahead with widespread gales and severe gusts of about 130km/h. Showery outbreaks of rain also, heavy and possibly thundery at times. Feeling cold - highest temperatures 8 to 11 degrees

mad DIY

MISSING :

One big storm
Last seen on a chart somewhere in the atlantic

Description :

Circular in appearance, with very heavy build.
Dangerous, with a violent temperament
If found, do not approach.


I'll let ye know if it appears, but right now looks like it's gone AWOL.
Wind is strong enough to set off alarms around here:mad: but that's about it.

Tactical

I've had a good look round West Limerick and there's no sign of it here. In the interest of doing a decent search I've called a few friends and they haven't seen it either.

If it does turn up I'll let you know immediately and we can arrange either for you to come and collect it or have it sent by courier to you.

:D:D

Storm 10

Found it here in Galway where its very stormy now with rain and hail, wind gusting over 60 mph reached 70 a while ago.

mad DIY

Does no harm to be prepared I suppose. You never know some day it might actually happen. Not today, by the looks of it, for most us thankfully.

Storm 10

Around seven ships taking shelter from the storm in Galway Bay, would not like to be out in this weather in a ship, you can be sure lots of ships are out in the Atlantic taking some bashing from this baby.

Tactical

Vessels will typically steam to avoid such weather where possible.

M.T. Cranium

Sounds like on the whole, the southern third of the country escaped strong wind gusts altogether (that convective cluster ended up hitting Cornwall and bringing them some fairly strong gusts) and elsewhere it was somewhat hit or miss depending on the shower bands to some extent, probably most central areas needed to be well exposed to the west to feel the force of the winds otherwise they seemed to come in at 30-50 mph gusts only, while the areas exposed to the Atlantic in the northwest probably saw close to what was expected (Belmullet still about 10 knots lower than I expected from the gradient), so that luckily it seems to have peaked a few knots lower than potential which is good because in that range, a few extra knots can be locally damaging.

The event is not quite over, there may be one or two more squally shower bands setting up and there's the matter of the high tide with the large swells coming in at this point, as winds are slowly veering more to due west.

It's on to Tuesday night now to see if most can dodge another bullet there.

I've got 4 C and a sleety light rain outside here, not very inviting but I have to dash out into it anyway, not much wind with it.

Discodog

Storm 10 wrote: »

Around seven ships taking shelter from the storm in Galway Bay, would not like to be out in this weather in a ship, you can be sure lots of ships are out in the Atlantic taking some bashing from this baby.

Two are just passing Black Head on their way out to sea.

RoisinD

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sounds like on the whole, the southern third of the country escaped strong wind gusts altogether (that convective cluster ended up hitting Cornwall and bringing them some fairly strong gusts) and elsewhere it was somewhat hit or miss depending on the shower bands to some extent, probably most central areas needed to be well exposed to the west to feel the force of the winds otherwise they seemed to come in at 30-50 mph gusts only, while the areas exposed to the Atlantic in the northwest probably saw close to what was expected (Belmullet still about 10 knots lower than I expected from the gradient), so that luckily it seems to have peaked a few knots lower than potential which is good because in that range, a few extra knots can be locally damaging.

The event is not quite over, there may be one or two more squally shower bands setting up and there's the matter of the high tide with the large swells coming in at this point, as winds are slowly veering more to due west.

It's on to Tuesday night now to see if most can dodge another bullet there.

I've got 4 C and a sleety light rain outside here, not very inviting but I have to dash out into it anyway, not much wind with it.

Thanks MT for your continued updates.

The cynics here would have you believe nothing happened and although as you say it was not as bad as predicted it wasn't the non event some would like to think. We here have had sustained winds around 100km since early morning with no sign of it abating as yet. Even though I like a good storm having had the floods of the past week, the last thing we needed was more bad weather. Still showing strong gusts of over 100 with sustained just under 100.

As I said earlier I went out for a drive around low tide and some of the seas were huge. The waves were crashing over the cliffs south west (?) of Doolin going towards the Cliffs of Moher. High tide is still about 4 hours away. I have noticed that the wind has changed to more westerly and assume that this will push the sea even further in. Is this right? If so maybe I won't venture out again this evening:)

Storm 10

Discodog wrote: »

Two are just passing Black Head on their way out to sea.

Hi Disco Dog check out this link you can see them on AIS


http://www.shipais.com/showship.php?map=GalwayBay&mmsi=2500420

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 23 November, 2009
____________________________

TODAY, an area of rather heavy rain will move across central Ireland this morning, and could give local amounts of 15-20 mms. Further south, this rain has already come and gone but some further showers may occur this morning with some clearing by afternoon. Further north, it's more a case of isolated showers continuing in a brisk westerly flow (winds in the north will continue a bit stronger than elsewhere at 20-35 mph). Highs today will be near 12 C in most places.

TONIGHT will become generally overcast and rather windy especially near the south coast where SSW winds 30-50 mph will develop after midnight. Periods of rain are likely to bring yet another 10-20 mms of rain to many areas, at least south of Dublin to Galway (the rain will arrive Tuesday further north).

TUESDAY will see further rain moving north, gusty SSW winds 35-55 mph near the south coast, more like 20-40 mph elsewhere, and it will turn rather foggy especially over hills. Highs will be near 12 C, and further rainfalls of about 15 mms seem likely.

TUESDAY NIGHT is expected to bring another round of very strong winds (SW 45-70 mph) to Connacht; at the moment, it seems that other parts of Ireland will see more moderate winds (30-50 mph). There will be showers, a few thundershowers, and local hail especially in the north. Overnight lows will stay fairly mild near 9 C. This potential storm is being discussed in a thread here on the weather forum.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be a breezy, rather cold period with daily highs of about 8 C and by Thursday morning, chilly morning lows near 1-3 C with some local frost possible. There will be mixed wintry showers over higher ground in particular, but not too heavy for the most part. Winds will be generally around 20-40 mph from a west to northwest direction.

THE WEEKEND will probably be a little cooler still with some chance of sleet or snow on higher ground, chilly rain elsewhere at times, although there may also be some dry intervals and brief sunny spells. Temperatures will be in the range of 0 to 7 C from overnight to mid-day.

There are some indications of rather wintry patterns setting up but sometimes these fade out of the models after a day or two -- so it's really not too clear yet if the generally mild regime is about to end.

Just for general information, the highest wind gust recorded on Sunday was 72 knots (83 mph) at Belmullet around 10:00h and our weather watchers reported some squally weather mainly in western counties but also in Laois and south of Dublin at times. Some other parts of the country seemed to escape the worst of the storm. This may be about the same story on Tuesday night, but stay tuned, as this is a slightly different evolution and it could still go either way (more intense, or less intense than Sunday, in other words, but at the moment, I'm assessing it as about the same intensity; waves may not be quite as high though.)

My weather Sunday was rather blah, cloudy with some light rain, and chilly at about 5 ot 6 C for the maximum.