Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

holly1

Happy Christmas and a very happy New Year to you M.T. Cranium and thank you for your forecasting all year.I kept an eye on your forecasts throughout '09 and found them very accurate.As most of the forecasting in the weather forum is.
Happy Christmas Everyone:).

irish1967

Happy Christmas and a big Thank You M.T for all your work during the year. I read your forecasts daily even when there isn't a layer of snow on the way ! I thought my waking hours were early until I saw yours !! Keep up the great work and all the best in 2010.

Oliverdog

Sure you'll be forgiven by your Irish fan club if you want to take a day off
We've all been astonished and delighted at the clarity and accuracy of your forecasts, and wish you a very happy Christmas and a healthy and prosperous New Year. As a countryman of yours would say - Long May You Run ! :cool:

glimmerman123

Thanks M.T for all your hard work in 2009. I would Like to wish you a very happy Christmas and good health and happiness for 2010.

triskell

Thanks MT for the excellent (and reliable) forcasts over the year, happy holidays to you and yours.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 21 December, 2009
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TODAY will see a mixture of wet snow, hail and cold rain showers; the weather situation is not changing very fast, but the longer the air swirls around over the 8-10 C waters offshore, the more the chill in the air mass is taken away. So it's going to be a four-day period of slow modification of today's weather towards all rain and temperatures more like average for the time and place.

For the rest of today, these mixed showers will continue to drift east across all districts but they will probably be heavier in the west and north. Highs today will range from 3 to 7 C with the milder readings near the west coast.

TONIGHT will continue showery with sleet or snow still in the mix, and scattered icy sections developing on rural roads, while some freezing fog develops in a few locations. Lows will range from -3 to +2 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY, as mentioned above, expect a continuation of this mainly cloudy and chilly weather with the balance slowly swinging more towards rain and away from snow. However, we will have to be alert to any brief development of frontal bands ahead of waves of low pressure feeding into this messy situation from the southwest, as these could bring on intervals of snow in some higher inland locations. Temperatures will be about a degree warmer each day, reaching highs of about 4 to 9 C by Thursday.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Friday) will be a somewhat milder day again, with sleet or cold rain in the early morning, followed by showers and temperatures rising to about 8-10 C.

The weekend following will be windy and wet, perhaps very windy if strong low pressure comes close enough to the west coast, but temperatures will be back to about 11-13 C for the first time in weeks.

From about Monday to New Years Eve, the weather pattern looks fairly mild and unsettled with risk of more strong winds at times.

We've had periods of heavier rain here today (Sunday) with possibly 25 mms but remaining rather mild at 9-10 C.

That snowstorm in the northeast U.S. moved past Nova Scotia today where it wasn't particularly heavy, even though the low continues to deepen; this is eventually going to be searching for a way through the European blocking pattern and probably succeeding to some extent by about the 27th.

paddybar

a big thanks from cork as well.when I want a clear reliable forecast you are always my first port of call.
Happy Christmas to you and yours and all the other regular contributers and forecasters

muckety

Happy Christmas to MT - and thanks for your regular weather forecasts. Yours is the first one I look to every morning!

loup

Also wishing your and yours a very Happy Christmas MT and looking forward to more forecasts in 2010! Is your 'day job' in Canada also in the forecasting line??:D

M.T. Cranium

I would describe myself as a retired jack of all trades, I have some background in the atmospheric sciences and some experience forecasting, but because I turned to my own research and found work wherever it was available, I suppose technically, no I don't have a day job making weather forecasts. It is what it is, so to speak (whoops, wrong religious theme for this week).

Anyway, it will all "work out in the long run," if by long run we include the after-life (now that's more like it, MTC). :cool:

Welsh Wizard

muckety wrote: »

Happy Christmas to MT - and thanks for your regular weather forecasts. Yours is the first one I look to every morning!

I can echo this.. Happy Christmas and looking forward to your posts in 2010

nacho libre

no offense mt but i hope your latest forecast from wednesday onwards is completely wrong:) i hope you have a good holiday and, as other have said, thanks a lot for your immeasurable contribution.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 22 December, 2009
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The general trend on the models is to maintain the cold weather a bit longer, possibly into Christmas morning, and this may at least preserve whatever snow falls or remains on the ground. It's also looking like more of a struggle for the milder air to push as far north as Ireland when it does finally start to move back north.

Having said that, I'll just give a brief forecast (as I expect a lot of regular readers have better things to do for a few days) ...

From now to Thursday, I continue to think it will be a rather icy and messy mixture of cloud, some clear patches promoting freezing fog, flurries of rather wet snow, sleet, cold rain, hail ... but nothing too heavy. Wednesday morning could see a bit more organized snow or sleet especially over higher parts of central counties. Temperatures will continue to rise very slowly from day to day, on the whole, depending on your cloud cover more than anything else, and there will be a milder feel to the air near the west and south coasts. Temperatures are likely to be confined to the range of -4 to +4 C.

By Christmas Day, there is still the indication of milder weather eventually, but now it looks more as though the cold air will be flushed out slowly, so precipitation could stay snow or sleet for a while before changing to rain; later in the day, it's likely to be foggy with sleety showers and temperatures probably 6-8 C.

After Christmas, I expect it will stay rather dull and dreary, the strong storm earlier indicated seems to have been postponed more to the 28th now, and on the track it's taking, there is no guarantee that it will knock the cold air out of the picture, especially in the northern third of the country, so I'll keep an eye on that because if the models are trending that way, they may suddenly start suggesting another snowfall event.

Then this peak of energy for New Years Eve and Day is also on a rather marginal track for milder temperatures as well, so really, there is some risk of wintry weather returning at times, especially in northern counties.

It has been a rather cool, mainly dry day here as low pressure weakened to such an extent that it had no moisture left -- so now we have a rather cold foggy night with colder air seeping into the region from the northeast. The temperature here at 11 p.m. is about 2 C.

I'll keep an eye on developments, and continue to report if possible. Take care on the roads, I'm reading on the other threads that they are quite icy in many rural areas.

Oliverdog

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Anyway, it will all "work out in the long run," if by long run we include the after-life (now that's more like it, MTC). :cool:

That's one forecast you definitely got right! I just checked - in spite of all the research, human mortality remains steady at 100%.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 23 December, 2009
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TODAY will bring some intervals of light snow mostly in central counties and the inland west, as it has become a bit too mild now near the west coast for snow; light rain or sleet might fall there. The east could remain largely dry, as this snow is only going to amount to 1-2 cms at most, and may have some trouble holding together especially with the hills to cross. But a few flurries are possible anywhere. It should be a little milder for some places today, but highs will be quite variable, 2 to 6 C mostly.

TONIGHT will see cloud dispersing gradually, more patchy freezing fog and icy roads will result. Any light snow should end fairly soon after sunset. Lows will reach values similar to the past few nights, -5 C in colder locales, -1 C an average for many of the larger cities.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) will become generally cloudy and it may be slightly milder, but with light sleety rain or wet snow in places. Highs will be generally 3-5 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY holds some promise of a brief morning snowfall, and some places will manage to hold on to previous snow cover to enjoy a white Christmas morning at least, but the day is likely to turn milder with a bit of sporadic rain, a light fog or mist, and temperatures struggling up to about 6-8 C.

SATURDAY (St Stephen's Day) will be similar, cloudy with sleet or light rain, and temperatures near 6 C.

From here on, the models are continuing with the theme advertised yesterday, a battleground scenario as milder air tries to push the cold air further north, but not that successfully. A remnant storm from the central Atlantic will arrive around Wed 29th with strong east winds and probably rain for most, although it could stay sleet or snow in higher parts of the north. The models at present don't show much further development into the last two days of the month, but I'm holding onto the risk of a strong storm in this time frame.

I'll check in again when I can ... hope you're having an enjoyable Christmas season and staying safe and healthy. The weather for us today (Tues) was dull, foggy and rather cold (4 C). They are digging out of the big snowstorm on the east coast in fairly calm and not overly cold (for them) conditions.

Redsunset

Not really the forecast i was looking for there M.T.
I hope i see alot more than you say but i'll live with it.
Thanks too for your very informative forecasts throughout the year and merry christmas to you and all on boards weather

M.T. Cranium

Brief update ... 24 Dec 09
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I am not seeing anything too different from the previous forecast, but as many will be travelling at this time, I would just say this (about that) ... take care on any long road journeys because you're almost bound to run into some icy sections of roads tonight or early tomorrow, especially through the central and northern counties. The main weather feature affecting the Christmas forecast is a warm front that could easily start off overnight with a mixed bag of treats, like freezing drizzle, sleet, snow, a little hail, but will likely see all these slowly turning to rain in the morning at some point, perhaps more like afternoon or evening in the north.

A little milder on the 26th, turning a bit colder again with possible flurries on the 27th, then we wait to see how a potentially nasty situation develops from the 28th through the 30th, as slow-moving lows try to push all this colder air well away from Ireland, but most of the models show them having a lot of difficulty and with the cold air eventually winning the battle and re-establishing dominance. This could lead to several days of sleet, strong NE winds and snow accumulating on hills and in northern counties more generally, with rain joining the fray around the south and southeast coasts.

More about that in the days ahead. It's quite possible I will retire to my fortress of solitude until some time on the 26th or even 27th; all the best for Christmas.

A seasonal picture follows as my Christmas card to boards.ie ...

Deep Easterly

A beautiful picture to give us M.T. Have a great Christmas yourself and thanks for daily forecasts and on the spot updates throughout the year.

DOCARCH

Happy Christmas to you MT. Thanks for all your hard work.

roryc1

Happy Christmas M.T, Thanks for all you're updates all year,
just do us a favor when you come back and just forecast snow, loads of snow

paulhac

Happy Christmas M.T. and thanks for all your forecasts during the year.

Storm 10

Hi MT

Happy Christmas and New Year MT thanks for all your hard work with the weather.

Storm 10

mickger

Happy Christmas M.T. Thanks for all your forecasts over the year.

greysides

Thanks MT for readily available accurate forecasts. It's the only thing I'm guaranteed to read each morning.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 26 December, 2009
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Just a brief update as I look at the developing situation towards New Years.

Milder today, and turning a bit colder again on Sunday. This sets up for a frontal battleground scenario from late Monday on, and the various models not totally in agreement on the details.

There is likely to be an interval of rain in the south, sleet in some central counties, and snow in the north, followed by the sleet and snow moving south to change (eventually) precip to all snow in all areas before New Years Eve.

There is some risk of a heavy snowfall or even blizzard-like conditions developing at some point in parts of eastern Ireland in particular.

Details are probably going to remain somewhat vague until models begin to converge on one solution (the track of low pressure through either northern France or southern England being the main point of difference -- the European model is probably most in favour of snowfall at this point).

And so, I hope to provide a more definitive forecast of this period by the next update or installment. We enjoyed a sunny (if at times misty) Christmas Day here with a rather cool high of about 4 C. I hope it gets mild enough for you to melt all your ice, then it can turn cold again with the ground at least safe to walk or drive on. I gather that has already taken place in many areas but not quite all yet.

glossy

:D:D
oooh liking the idea of blizzards

Blizzard would be fun, for a while.:) Imagine a blizzard in Dublin?
Fingers and toes crossed for this one.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 27 December, 2009
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TODAY will be somewhat colder again with sunny intervals, a few heavy showers of hail (mostly) that could drop snow on higher hills, and brisk westerly winds 20-40 mph. Highs will be in the 5-7 C range.

TONIGHT will see fair to clear skies and chilly overnight lows of about -2 to -5 C in many areas, with icy roads becoming a hazard, and patchy freezing fog developing, as winds drop off to almost calm.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY is looking like a cold, dry period for most, with a gusty east wind developing. There will be a cold, sleety rain developing also near the south coast, and the main question is whether this even gets ashore and then if it does, would it change to sleet or snow on hills in the south? I think it will be advancing slowly and somewhat irregularly, but also we'll have to be watchful for any sea-effect snow or hail showers forming near the Dublin area. Highs during this period will be 3-5 C in general but could be held lower by any persistent fog, as nights will be quite cold with patchy freezing fog ... lows will range from -4 to -7 C in all but the south coast where it will stay closer to zero.

By THURSDAY (New Years' Eve) there appears to be some risk of heavy snow or sleet developing, models are still not in agreement on this, but the risk is certainly there for a snow event, as well as for heavier sea effect snow near the east coast because even colder air will be mixing into the flow from the east and northeast, temperatures will be in the range of -5 to +2 C.

FRIDAY (New Years' Day) could be about the same with cold east to northeast winds and local snowfalls, then a more uncertain forecast period follows where cold air is part of the ongoing picture and further storms are brewing with possibilities for snow, sleet or cold rain in the usual bands from north to south.

We had another clear but locally foggy and rather icy day here (on the 26th) with temperatures briefly as high as 4 C but now that it's 11:20 p.m. it has fallen off to -3 C with slightly icy roads.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 28 December, 2009
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TODAY will be cold and mainly dry with some sunshine once any freezing fog dissipates. South coast districts may see thicker cloud developing mid-day with winds picking up to ESE 15-30 mph. Further north it will be less windy but whatever east wind develops will feel quite raw. Highs will only reach 1-3 C on average and possibly staying below freezing in central counties. The south coast may reach 5 C.

There may also be some mixed wintry showers this morning in parts of the northwest and north.

TONIGHT will stay dry and cold, except for some sleet moving into the south coast, turning to snow inland (but not moving in very far). More freezing fog and icy roads will develop, and lows will vary from -7 C in coldest spots to near -1 C elsewhere (1-2 C south coast).

TUESDAY, the sleet or snow will move slightly further north and some snow showers could develop elsewhere. Winds will increase to E 20-40 mph, and highs will remain in the very cold -1 to +2 C range for most. Some inland south central areas could see 5-7 cms of snow. Model runs continue to show a variety of possible outcomes, one (the UKMO) seems to be indicating potential for heavy snowfall in Ireland by later Tuesday and Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY, with east winds remaining rather strong and raw, the snow may move a bit further north and become heavy on some southeast hills as well as across the south inland, with sleet continuing near the coast. A further 5-10 cms may fall in the southern half of the country especially on east-facing upland areas, and there is some chance of this snow spreading further north to give 10-15 cms in some central counties and 5-15 cms in the north. Within the precip zone, the lows and highs will be in a narrow range of -2 to +2 C. Further north, another cold overnight near -7 C will be followed by daytime readings near zero C. Winds may begin to gust as high as 45 mph at times from the east.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY the situation is not totally resolved, but it seems likely to remain cold with the more organized snow moving back south and offshore, while sea effect bands of snow may develop in northeast winds of 20-40 mph. Temperatures will remain very cold and there may be ice fog at night, some areas of freezing daytime temperatures, and icy roads here and there. We should be alert to the chance of heavy snow or even blizzard conditions in some eastern counties.

The longer range outlook is swinging back to continued cold, raw easterlies, after a more settled cold period around the weekend of 2-3 Jan, with some earlier suggestions (between forecast times for me) of milder southerlies in the following week not showing very prominently now. In other words, Ireland may be heading into a prolonged cold spell, and with these mixed chances for snowfall, it seems only a matter of time until there are heavy snowfalls and possibly near Dublin as well to affect large numbers of people.

The weather here on Sunday was clear again with the overnight heavy frost persisting in the shade while in the bright sunshine it felt a bit on the warm side despite peaking at 4 C.

Super-Rush

MT i was having a look through the Met Eireann forecast(after i read yours) and they mentioned that there might be thunderstorm activity as the days go by. I always associated thunder with warm weather but i do remember about 10/12 years ago being out in a snow storm and seeing lightening and hearing thunder. How does this occur in very cold weather?