Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)
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Saturday, 24 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and relatively mild, with showers or intervals of rain, 5-10 mm a general range. Highs around 10 to 12 C.
TONIGHT will remain damp with a few showers, lows 5 to 7 C. It may be foggy in places with longer intervals of clear skies in the southeast perhaps leading to dense fog there.
CHRISTMAS DAY (Sunday 25th) will bring more showers although there might be a few brighter spells too. Turning somewhat cooler from the northwest during the afternoon. Highs 8-10 C south and east, 7-9 C west and north. Some showers could turn sleety or wintry over higher parts of the north and west during the night (25th-26th), as lows drop to the 2-4 C range.
MONDAY (St Stephens Day 26th) will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and some passing showers, with longer intervals of rain likely late in the day. Lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.
TUESDAY will turn milder with intervals of rain, lows 3-5 C and highs near 10 C. Heavier rain may develop overnight into early Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY will be breezy to windy, rain tapering to showers, winds southwest to west 50-80 km/hr. Lows 4-7 C and highs 8-10 C.
THURSDAY the strong winds will ease by early morning and the day could bring longer sunny breaks with any showers more isolated, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-9 C.
FRIDAY will turn windy and perhaps stormy, with southwest winds 70-120 km/hr, showers or intervals of rain, temperatures steady 8-10 C.
SATURDAY (New Years Eve) will be breezy and somewhat cooler with westerly winds 50-70 km/hr, lows 3-5 C and highs 7-9 C.
From this distance, conditions at midnight on New Years Eve would be mostly dry and around 5 C with moderate south to southwest winds. This dry spell could last through the rest of NEW YEARS DAY (Sunday 1st Jan) with southerly winds slowly increasing, highs 8-10 C. This would lead to a windy and wet day on Monday 2nd. An unsettled and sometimes windy regime is indicated for the following week, with colder air slowly edging west again out of eastern Europe towards the end of reliable guidance (towards 8th of January 2023). This would be the same timing as we saw in December if colder air is coming back.
My local weather produced a snowfall of about 10 cm and it is slowly turning milder, incrementally, reaching -12 C at this point. Further snow is expected as very mild air with rain hits the west coast and ends the rather persistent cold spell there, and while we don't expect a change over here it will become quite mild eventually and snow could be either wet or sleety at times by Christmas Day. Meanwhile, the eastern storm raged on with conditions in some snow belt zones very dangerous for travel. Extreme cold flooded east and it was around -18 C at mid-day in parts of the Midwest, and was falling towards -15 C in New York City and Washington DC. Strong winds brought down tree branches and did minor damage to structures, or even major damage in one or two cases. Buffalo NY had it particularly bad with hours of zero visibility, heavy snow and severe wind chills.
I will drop by at this time Christmas Eve if only to confirm this general forecast outlook ... take care if you're travelling.
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Sunday, 25 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY will bring a mix of cloud and sunshine, with showers more frequent in west and north this morning; later on these showers will visit some parts of the east and south while it gradually turns a bit cooler in the west and north where some further showers could become sleety on hills. Highs for most 8-10 C, temperatures around 5-7 C by late afternoon, as winds turn west to northwest 30-50 km/hr.
TONIGHT a few sleety or wintry showers, cold with lows 1 to 3 C.
MONDAY (St Stephens Day) will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and some passing showers, with longer intervals of rain likely late in the day. Lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.
TUESDAY will turn milder with intervals of rain, followed by some brighter spells by mid-day and afternoon. lows 3-5 C and highs near 10 C. Heavier rain may develop overnight into early Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY will be breezy to windy, rain tapering to showers, winds southwest to west 50-80 km/hr. Lows 4-7 C and highs 8-10 C.
THURSDAY the strong winds will ease by early morning and the day could bring longer sunny breaks with any showers more isolated, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-9 C. Further outbreaks of rain are likely by evening though, lasting into Friday morning.
FRIDAY will turn windy and perhaps stormy in parts of the south and east, with potential for southwest winds 70-120 km/hr, showers or intervals of rain, temperatures steady 8-10 C. The trend in guidance at the moment is to shift this storm track closer to the south coast, but all regions are at some risk of strong winds as the track is not yet confirmed.
SATURDAY (the daytime portion of New Years Eve) will be breezy and somewhat cooler with westerly winds 50-70 km/hr, lows 3-5 C and highs 7-9 C.
NEW YEARS EVE itself is likely to become breezy and showery with temperatures near 5 C.
NEW YEARS DAY will likely be mild with southerly winds 50-70 km/hr and some rain at times. Highs 8-11 C.
The further outlook, while somewhat variable, is generally mild to very mild at times.
My local weather on Saturday was overcast with snow at times, about 10 cm new accumulation, topping up our base to 50 cm locally. It has been slowly warming up all day and is currently -5 C.
Have a wonderful Christmas Day.
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On behalf of all your enthusiastic daily readers MT, a very happy Christmas to you and yours over in Canada and best wishes for a prosperous 2023, filled with interesting weather.
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Monday, 26 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the coming week include variable but near average temperatures and frequent rainfalls with occasional strong winds.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy, some decent sunny intervals at first followed by scattered showers that could be sleety or wintry on some hills. Moderate westerly winds, highs 6-8 C.
TONIGHT will become overcast, with rain spreading across the country from the west after midnight. Temperatures may be as low as -2 to +2 at first, but will rise gradually after midnight.
TUESDAY will start out with rain tapering to showers, winds southwest to west 40-70 km/hr. Some sunny breaks later. Highs 7-10 C.
WEDNESDAY will bring a similar sequence of early morning heavy rain, afternoon clearing, but with stronger winds 60-90 km/hr. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.
THURSDAY may be dry at first, with rain arriving by mid-day, spreading north with some heavy falls possible. The risk of strong winds seems confined to the south coast on the present guidance with the low tracking through Munster and south Leinster late afternoon-evening. Lows 2-5 C and highs 6-8 C for most, 8-11 C south coast.
FRIDAY will bring clearing skies and gradually moderating northwest winds, before a late increase in clouds leads to renewed rain. Lows 3-6 C and highs 7-9 C.
SATURDAY ... the forecast has changed with a strong low now indicated for the overnight (30th-31st) that could bring an interval of very strong southwest winds and heavy rain. That would likely be followed by gradual clearing and the strong winds more moderate by afternoon, but then by the evening of New Years Eve another strong frontal wave could be approaching with more rain. Then on SUNDAY (New Year's Day) more rain and wind, clearing later in the day, highs near 12 C. Temperatures generally 7-10 C. Given that all this is five to six days out, timing could change and so could the intensity of either of these two storm events.
The pattern seems to remain quite active with generally mild temperatures for early January.
My local weather on Christmas Day was overcast with light falls of sleet changing to a rain-snow mix as temperatures moved up a bit more to reach zero C. Today looks quite mild and hopefully if it rains it will be brief and change back to snow later (snow is expected here on Tuesday). The eastern storm continues to wind down slowly with more heavy snowfalls in some snow belt areas, particularly Buffalo NY and parts of central Ontario.
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Tuesday, 27 December, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY will become wet with a band of rain (5-10 mm) gradually crossing the country, with a few brighter intervals following in from the west by afternoon. Highs 8-10 C. Moderate southwest to west winds 40-70 km/hr.
TONIGHT dry at first, rain spreading into western counties after midnight and reaching the east by dawn. Lowest temperatures -2 to +2 C in the evening but any frost would dissipate as temperatures will rise to 5-8 C later.
WEDNESDAY the rain will become more showery with variable cloud and eventually strong southwest winds developing by afternoon and evening, reaching 70-110 km/hr in exposed locations. Another 10-15 mm rain is expected. Highs 8-11 C.
THURSDAY will remain windy with squally showers at first, some improvements later in a moderating westerly wind. Lows 3-5 C, highs 7-9 C. Further rain, heavy at times overnight into Friday morning.
FRIDAY rain clearing east, sunny intervals possible. Lows 5-7 C and highs 8-10 C. Further rain likely by Friday night.
SATURDAY a disturbance now looking weaker will cross the country around the early morning hours with rain at times, overnight lows 5-7 C. The day will bring variable cloud, showers and highs near 10 C. New Year's Eve looks rather unsettled with some heavy showers and temperatures steady 8-10 C overnight into SUNDAY (New Year's Day) which will continue unsettled with showers and gusty winds at times, highs 8-11 C.
The regime following will be perhaps more settled eventually as high pressure over Europe starts to dominate and the Atlantic takes a rest. At this point the influence of the high does not appear to include much potential for cold weather to return but that could always show up on guidance within a few days. But so far the high is positioned further south and winds would be southeast, with temperatures at least average if not rather mild at times.
My local weather reached its warmest point of the month with a high near 3 C and rain at times falling into the snow pack and making it very heavy and in places slushy. Temperatures are slowly falling back now and a heavy wet snow has set in. This looks set to continue off and on all night and through Tuesday, with temperatures slowly heading down to about -3 C. Meanwhile the Great Lakes snow squalls continued through the day and will only let up gradually later today, but within two or three days temperatures there will start rising to 10-15 C, so where there is a heavy snow cover there could be some flooding and roof collapse problems with vast urban ponding potential given that there will be massive snow banks from the ongoing recovery. Glad I live high up where the water has to run downhill and away from me (although we are in no danger of losing much of our snow, it has just been beaten down slightly).
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Wednesday, 28 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue rather mild and unsettled with near or slightly above normal amounts of rain likely, although not excessive. The risk of strong winds will be present at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be wet to start, with 10-15 mm rainfalls spreading across most regions. Those will taper off to showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, also a few brighter intervals, as winds increase to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Another interval of steady rain will set in by evening. Highs 9 to 12 C.
TONIGHT will be windy with passing showers, winds southwest to west 50-80 km/hr. Lows 4-7 C.
THURSDAY will be somewhat colder with the passing showers becoming mixed or wintry on higher terrain, winds moderate to strong at times westerly 40-70 km/hr, highs 6 to 8 C.
FRIDAY some early morning rain may be heavy at times, with temperatures steady or even rising during the night to 10 C. Moderate southwest winds and slowly falling temperatures during the day with a mix of cloud and sun, some further showers, temperatures falling slightly to around 6 or 7 C by afternoon.
SATURDAY the cycle repeats with another round of early morning rain, this time rather light and prone to mixing with sleet on northern hills as temperatures will remain 4-7 C for most and 2-4 C in parts of Ulster. Some brighter intervals around mid-day, highs 6-9 C.
NEW YEAR'S EVE (overnight) will turn wet again with temperatures steady around 5 C.
SUNDAY (New Year's Day) will be partly cloudy to overcast with rain developing mid-day, at the present time guidance indicates a rather modest low moving through parts of central Ireland, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall and moderate to strong wind gusts, but this system will need to be watched for possible further development.
The regime beyond that looks fairly similar; higher pressure will set up over Europe at times, but at this point it looks as though the Atlantic southwest flow will also remain somewhat in play, so that there won't be large changes in the weather pattern. There are once again signs of colder weather after the first week of January on a similar timetable to last month, but these new indications once again don't appear all that intense compared to the severe cold that set in earlier this month. Rather a long way out to be very confident of any details.
My local weather brought a heavy dump of wet snow in the early morning then rain at times in the day, as temperatures pushed up to about 2-3 deg again. This mixed precip has created a slushy mess on roads and pavements but will gradually push off later today and leave us with some dry weather for a change, with temperatures just a little below freezing. The eastern U.S. with locally heavy snow cover from the past few days of snow squalls is now heading into a much milder spell which could bring flooding where the snow was heavy.
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Thursday, 29 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
The unsettled theme continues for the next week with temperatures close to the late December averages. It may turn somewhat milder at times in the south, but higher parts of the north will remain quite close to the mixing temperatures so sleet will remain in the outlook there.
TODAY will be breezy with a few more passing showers, and highs 7-9 C. A rather chilly westerly wind of 40-70 km/hr will make it feel colder in some places, and higher terrain may see mixing to sleet or hail at times.
TONIGHT rain will become rather heavy with moderate southwest winds, 40-70 km/hr. Lows 3-5 C and about 10-15 mm rain likely.
FRIDAY the rain should taper to showers with a moderate southwest to west wind continuing, some brighter intervals likely, highs 8-10 C.
SATURDAY will bring a similar sequence with early morning rain, daytime variable cloud and a few showers, lows 4-7 C and highs 8-10 C.
By SATURDAY NIGHT (New Year's Eve) another interval of steady light rain with temperatures 3-5 C, could mix to sleet or wet snow on hills.
By SUNDAY (New Year's Day) yet another disturbance moves in from the southwest, with temperatures possibly not moving up all that much especially away from the milder south coast where it could be 8 C, but elsewhere only 4-7 C so any further rain could start to mix to sleet or wet snow on hills.
MONDAY could see a bit of a break before another frontal system arrives either Monday night or Tuesday with a bit more rain likely then.
The further outlook is milder as temperatures seem likely to edge up to 10-13 C at times around the 3rd to 6th of January. Unsettled and colder in stages after that peak of warmth.
My local weather was overcast and damp with a sleety light snow and temperatures falling very slowly to around zero C mid-day and -3 C this evening. We're expecting a drier interval here while weak frontal systems continue to die out near the coast, but the main action moves further south with heavy rains and mountain snows expected in California and sometimes further inland. It is also turning very mild in eastern parts of the continent.
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Friday, 30 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Proceed with caution especially in northern counties as there were some heavy rainfalls overnight in those regions (20-30 mm), just now beginning to move out of eastern NI and north Leinster. Skies will continue to brighten with showers less widespread and winds easing from current southwest 50-80 km/hr. Highs 7 to 11 C, mildest in southeast.
TONIGHT more rain moves in with moderate southwest winds returning to the 40-70 km/hr range but only near the south coast as this low is tracking in further south. Rain, drizzle and fog will become widespread with lows 3-6 C. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm appear likely, heaviest in the southwest, inland south and southeast. Some flooding possible by morning.
SATURDAY once again some brighter or drier intervals will follow around mid-day (this weather pattern is like some reverse tropical monsoon with most of the rain at night, it seems). Showers will continue across parts of the north and east, and the next batch of rain will arrive before sunset in the southwest. Highs 8 to 10 C.
NEW YEAR'S EVE will yet again turn rather wet across most regions with 5-10 mm potential, but with somewhat lower temperatures this bout of rain could become sleety or mixed with snow on higher terrain, lows 2 to 5 C except 5 to 7 C near south coast and in Wicklow near the coast.
SUNDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY) will bring a few brighter spells again with scattered mixed or wintry showers. Highs 5 to 8 C which sounds a bit high for wintry showers except that with a low freezing level any of them that do materialize will likely drop temperatures locally during and after their presence, to about 2 C, so there could be a few accumulations of hail, sleet or snow especially on higher terrain. Even so, some south and east coast counties could get a decent amount of sunshine.
MONDAY after a cold night with scattered frost, morning lows -3 to +2 C, the day will bring sunny intervals and a few isolated wintry showers turning back mostly to rain near the west coast late in the day. Eastern counties likely to remain mostly dry with highs 4-7 C there, 7-9 C in western counties.
TUESDAY will be milder with rain at times, lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.
The pattern continues to look rather mild and occasionally unsettled moving forward into the new year. Peaks of warmth around 11-13 C are likely mid-week and towards Saturday 7th January.
My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a dense fog over the hills and drizzle or freezing drizzle at times, temperatures in the range of -2 to 0 C. The coffee shops and bars in town were jammed full as skiers gave up on the conditions and moved to more rewarding activities. Apparently there was a freezing fog over the ski slopes and it wasn't possible to ski safely despite fairly good snow conditions up above where the recent rain hit. Weather reports from the east spoke of spring-like mild sunshine which is where I should be heading I suppose.
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Saturday, 31 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY will be rather cloudy with a few brighter intervals and scattered outbreaks of light rain. Heavier rain will arrive late in the afternoon across most of the south. Highs 7-9 C. Some places in the north may remain colder and showers there could be sleety.
TONIGHT will be cool and wet in most places, with potential for 15-25 mm rainfalls in the south and east, some thunder and lightning may be embedded around 9 p.m. to midnight. Cold enough for sleet or wet snow on hills, especially in Connacht and west Ulster. Lows 2-5 C, possibly a bit milder in the southeast.
SUNDAY (New Year's Day) will be partly cloudy to overcast with scattered mixed wintry showers, rather cold with highs 4 to 7 C. The following night will be clear at times with widespread frost likely by early morning, lows dropping to -3 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with some longer sunny intervals. The frost will gradually dissipate, and highs will reach 4 to 7 C again. Some isolated showers could turn sleety with hail possible. Rain developing by evening, lasting overnight, milder.
TUESDAY the morning rain will move off to the east, with partly cloudy and mild conditions to follow. Highs 9 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY more rain during the overnight, breezy to windy, temperatures steady near 10 C then slowly falling as winds veer southwest to west 50-80 km/hr. Clearing by afternoon.
THURSDAY cooler with morning frost, some sunshine during the day, increasing cloud and rain overnight into Friday. Lows -3 to +2 C, highs around 7 C.
FRIDAY breezy and mild with occasional rain, highs 8-11 C.
SATURDAY (7th Jan) becoming windy with rain at times, temperatures near 12 C early in the day, then gradually turning colder, as winds veer southwest to west-northwest 60-90 km/hr.
SUNDAY (8th Jan) from this distance looks quite cold and windy with passing wintry showers, strong west winds 70-110 km/hr adding chill to temperatures only 2-5 C.
On current guidance, another fast-moving frontal system would bring temperatures back up to around 10 C briefly, on Monday 9th. That would be followed by several colder days with more wintry showers possible, and the regime stays similar with brief warmups and fairly dominant colder spells, in a west to northwest flow (cold zonal if you wish).
My local weather on Friday was overcast with some light snow in the morning and dry after that, highs near -1 C. New York City region had highs of 16-18 C and this will continue to be the trend in eastern North America.
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Sunday, 1st January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with scattered mixed wintry showers, more frequent in the inland south, central and eastern counties. There could be some lightning and locally heavy falls of hail with these. Rather cold with highs 4 to 7 C.
TONIGHT will be clear at times with widespread frost likely by early morning, lows dropping to -4 to -1 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with some longer sunny intervals. The frost will gradually dissipate, and highs will reach 4 to 7 C again. Some isolated showers could turn sleety with hail possible. Rain developing by evening, lasting overnight, milder after a chilly start, temperatures rising slowly in most places towards Tuesday early morning readings of 5-8 C.
TUESDAY the heavier morning rain will move off to the east, with partly cloudy to overcast and mild conditions to follow, with further showers possible, eventual rainfall totals of 10-20 mm. Highs 9 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY more rain during the overnight, breezy to windy, temperatures steady near 10 C then slowly falling as winds veer southwest to west 50-80 km/hr. Clearing by mid-day but then more rain likely overnight into Thursday morning.
THURSDAY some rain at times, lows near 5 C and highs 8-10 C, but somewhat colder in north, and this cooler air will push further south by late in the day, bringing mixed wintry showers to some higher terrain. Rather windy near Atlantic coasts.
FRIDAY some southern counties may hold on to the intermittent rain and temperatures 7-10 C, while further north it may remain colder (4-6 C) until evening, with variable cloud, before all regions become breezy and mild with occasional rain overnight into early Saturday, overnight temperatures rising to around 8-11 C briefly.
SATURDAY (7th Jan) becoming windy with rain at times, temperatures near 10 C early in the day, then turning colder, as winds veer southwest to west-northwest 60-90 km/hr. Wintry showers could develop by afternoon especially in western counties and temperatures will fall sharply there, towards freezing. Snow could accumulate on hills overnight into Sunday 8th.
SUNDAY (8th Jan) from this distance looks quite cold and windy with passing wintry showers, strong west winds 70-110 km/hr adding chill to temperatures only 2-5 C. Monday (9th Jan) may remain quite cold until late afternoon or evening, with another brief warmup possible overnight into early Tuesday 10th.
The longer term outlook looks increasingly cold with the flow becoming northwest to northerly, and there could be some wintry episodes around mid-January.
My local weather on Saturday was overcast with highs near -1 C. Just getting ready to toast the new year here, let's hope it's a better one than the last three.
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Monday, 2 January, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will be rather variable for temperatures, sometimes quite mild later in the week; rainfalls not excessive in most areas, and perhaps a bit more sunshine than is average for early January, although more cloudy than clear overall.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out quite cold with patchy ice fog and some slippery roads in western inland counties and a few other spots. Some sunshine at times through mid-day, then increasing afternoon cloud, highs 4-7 C.
TONIGHT rain and milder, temperatures steady 4-7 C or slowly rising
TUESDAY will be cloudy and mild with occasional rain continuing, highs 9-12 C. Moderate southwest winds 50-70 km/hr.
WEDNESDAY staying mild with patchy light rain or drizzle, although a touch colder in Ulster by afternoon. Lows 4-7 C and highs 8-11 C (falling to around 5 C in the north late in the day).
THURSDAY the frontal boundary will slip further south and only the south coast will remain mild with light rain there at times. Partly cloudy and a bit colder with variable but mostly easterly breezes for most of the central and northern counties. Highs near 10 C in the south, 4-7 C further north.
FRIDAY rain will continue to push north at times, and will eventually restore the milder air to all regions by late in the day, highs 8-11 C. Mild and windy overnight with rain turning to squally showers, as winds increase to westerly 60-90 km/hr.
SATURDAY will become windy and colder with peak temperatures around sunrise (8-11 C) then falling steadily to reach 2-5 C by afternoon in many areas, with mixed wintry showers and snow on some hills. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr.
SUNDAY will remain quite cold with wintry showers and moderate to strong west to northwest winds, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4-7 C.
MONDAY (9th) will also be rather cold and windy with a few passing mixed wintry showers, lows -3 to +1 C and highs 5-8 C.
A little milder by TUESDAY (10th) with rain at times, then WEDNESDAY (11th) may try to duplicate this coming Saturday's sequence of mild to cold in strong westerly winds. The model guidance beyond that looks rather volatile with fast moving systems that could briefly produce strong winds and sharp temperature contrasts.
My local weather on New Years Day was brighter for the morning, then low cloud drifted in and it was a fairly typical -2 C for this mountain-slope location.
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Tuesday, 3 January, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY will be breezy and mild with occasional rain, sometimes heavy. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, highs 10 to 13 C.
TONIGHT rain will become more showery with some fog developing as winds ease away from coasts, lows 5 to 8 C.
WEDNESDAY will remain quite mild for most, with a few showers, highs 8 to 11 C.
THURSDAY will become windy with a few showers, winds southwest to west 60-90 km/hr. Lows 4-7 C and highs 9-12 C.
FRIDAY after a dry start, windy with rain by afternoon and evening, temperatures steady in the 8-10 C range.
SATURDAY will turn much colder, from early morning readings of 8-10 C, rapidly falling to 2-5 C, in strong westerly winds 70-110 km/hr. Passing sleety showers becoming wintry with potential for snow on higher terrain.
SUNDAY will also be quite cold with winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr, and some further outbreaks of wintry showers. Lows 1-3 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
MONDAY will be less windy but still rather cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5-8 C.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY (10th-11th) will bring another windy interval with a brief spike in temperatures followed by very strong westerly winds, possible storm conditions on parts of the west coast.
The pattern will remain quite active with further episodes of rapid temperature changes and strong winds at times.
My local weather was overcast and a bit colder with highs around -4 C.
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Wednesday, 4 January, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Mild with moderate westerly breezes, passing showers, highs 9 to 12 C.
TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy at first, then overcast with occasional rain, becoming rather windy. Lows 4 to 7 C.
THURSDAY ... Windy with a few showers, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. Some northwest coastal areas could see briefly stronger gusts around mid-day. Highs 8-11 C.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, then overcast with rain, strong southwest winds developing, lows 4-7 C and highs 8-11 C.
SATURDAY ... Turning sharply colder during the early morning hours, temperatures falling to around 4-5 C and staying in that range most of the day in strong southwest winds 60-90 km/hr. Passing showers will become increasingly mixed and wintry.
SUNDAY ... Windy and cold with wintry showers, lows 1-3 C and highs 4-7 C. Winds southwest to west 60-90 km/hr.
MONDAY ... Continued cold, rather windy at first but moderating during the day. Fewer showers than previous days and some eastern and southern counties seeing sunshine at times with mostly dry conditions. Lows -2 to +2 C, highs 5-8 C.
TUESDAY ... Windy with rain, milder for a brief interval, highs near 12 C. Temperatures starting to fall again later in the day, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr.
WEDNESDAY (11th) will be windy and cold with wintry showers, highs 4-7 C.
The regime stays zonal and fast westerly with indications of windstorm potential that may need a close watch towards the weekend of the 14th-15th. We can't take maps at that range verbatim but there are depictions of very strong winds on a couple of occasions mid-month.
My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with very light snow that left just a dusting, not all that cold with a high near -1 C.
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Thursday, 5 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 5-11 Jan 2023 --
-- Temperatures will start out quite mild but will run colder than average Saturday to Monday, then back to milder for Tuesday, and colder again after that. The average will likely be close to normal.
-- Rainfalls will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine may do a bit better than average for this early stage of January.
-- Rather windy at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be breezy, southwest 50-70 km/hr, with a few stronger gusts near Atlantic coasts, and showers may be fairly frequent this morning, with more of a clearing trend by afternoon. Highs 10 to 12 C.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and mild with lows 4 to 7 C.
FRIDAY will become quite windy and rain will spread in by afternoon. Winds southerly 50-80 km/hr. Highs 9 to 12 C.
SATURDAY will turn colder during the early morning hours with showers and winds south-southwest 50-70 km/hr, lows 4-6 C. During the daytime it will remain rather cold with winds gradually veering to southwest, and easing late in the day, highs 5-7 C. Some mixed wintry showers by afternoon on higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster.
SUNDAY will be windy and cold with passing mixed wintry showers, winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr, lows 1-3 C and highs 4-7 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy, not as windy, but with passing showers still rather wintry, lows -2 to +2 C, highs 5-8 C. Rain by evening and overnight.
TUESDAY will be milder with the rain easing to showers, highs 10-12 C.
It will then turn colder again mid-week. The latest guidance is a little less volatile than before although still indicating frequent temperature changes and occasional windy frontal systems.
My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with highs around -2 C. There is a large storm system off the west coast that threatens California with very heavy rainfalls, and the entire west coast with some rain and strong winds, but it is not making a lot of inland progress so its effects here will be limited. It was very mild in parts of the eastern U.S. with NYC tying their daily record high of 19 C set in 1950.
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Friday, 6 January, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Turning colder, often quite windy, followed by some large variations in temperature during the week.
SITUATION ... Before getting to the forecast, it's interesting to review the situation at this time. A very strong low pressure area has formed about 700 miles west of northwest Ireland, expected to reach central pressures near 940 mbs. This low will slowly rotate around more distant low pressure near Iceland and will weaken gradually over the next 36-48 hours, so that its central core winds (which could reach 160 km/hr) won't reach land, but large waves and ocean swells will be pushing in towards the west coast, arriving in full force on Saturday and continuing on Sunday. The fact that full moon occurs on Saturday also adds to the wave height potential and there may be some dangerous conditions along Atlantic coasts and to some extent on all coasts during the weekend.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, relatively mild, with southerly winds increasing gradually to reach 60-90 km/hr by afternoon (west) and evening. Scattered outbreaks of light rain at first, more widespread moderate rain later, 5-10 mm expected. Highs 9-11 C.
TONIGHT will remain windy, rain will sweep through ending about midnight near the west coast and 0300h east coast. Temperatures will fall gradually after the rain ends. Winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Lows 3-6 C.
SATURDAY strong southwest winds will continue, with variable cloud and passing showers, some turning mixed and wintry on hills. Highs will range from 3-6 C on northwestern hills, to 8-10 C around the southeast coast which will still be getting some warming influence due to the southwest wind 60-90 km/hr.
SUNDAY colder air will extend its influence to most regions and showers everywhere could become wintry at times, as winds veer slowly to west-northwest 70-100 km/hr. Lows 1-4 C and highs 4-8 C.
MONDAY will continue rather windy with slight moderation, and wintry showers are likely to continue perhaps forming more isolated bands by mid-day. Some sunshine at times too. Winds northwest 50-80 km/hr backing to west-southwest later in the day. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs by late in the day 6-9 C.
TUESDAY will turn very mild, after some rain along a warm front in the early morning, further showers and variable skies in strong west-southwest winds 70-100 km/hr. Highs 11-14 C.
WEDNESDAY will see the return of colder air on westerly winds, temperatures slowly dropping all day to reach 2-5 C. Wintry showers may return.
By THURSDAY, generally dry and cool, with a weak Atlantic disturbance likely to pass well to the south, but it could spread some cloud and even light rain towards the south coast as it moves past, most regions getting some brighter intervals and a slight frost followed by highs near 7 C.
The next frontal wave in the series will be more of a direct hit on Friday 13th and could produce some rather strong wind gusts lasting through part of the following weekend. There is a distinct colder trend showing up around this time, with the Atlantic starting to become more dominated by northerly flow and eventually, while timing details remain a bit uncertain, this colder air will probably have its turn at bat so to speak, by the week following (16th-22nd). How wintry things become then is not completely clear yet, but there is potential for a return of significant cold and potential for some snow in that time frame. We can only assign a moderate risk to this with some chance it would be watered down to a long-fetch modified arctic flow that doesn't quite get cold enough to produce much snow.
My local weather on Friday was dominated by very low cloud bases obscuring even the nearby ridge lines just above us, while suggesting it was a rather thin layer with perhaps views of the sun above that layer. Temperatures are staying close to -2 C. The distant ocean storm systems linked from the Gulf of Alaska to the California coast are producing a lot of coastal wind and rain, but most of it is staying along the coast and little of the energy is moving inland past the first mountain barrier, the Cascades. We are in the second mountain range of a series here (the Monashee Range), so further east with two or three more ranges to cross, no moisture is making it past the Rockies at all, except further south where storms will be forming over the Great Basin and into the plains states.
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Saturday, 7 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue variable, several rather cool days at a time with brief milder spells timed for around Tuesday and Friday. Rainfall while fairly frequent will likely not exceed normal values.
FORECASTS
TODAY strong southwest winds will continue, with variable cloud and passing showers, some turning mixed and wintry on hills. Highs will range from 3-6 C on northwestern hills, to 8-10 C around the south and southeast coasts which will still be getting some warming influence due to the southwest wind 60-90 km/hr. A few sunny intervals will be in the mix also.
TONIGHT windy and cold with mixed wintry showers more frequent on higher terrain. Lows 1-4 C. Winds southwest to west 50-80 km/hr with a few higher gusts near Atlantic coasts.
SUNDAY colder air will extend its influence to most regions and showers everywhere could become wintry at times, as winds veer slowly to west-northwest 70-100 km/hr. Lows 1-4 C and highs 4-8 C.
MONDAY will continue rather windy with slight moderation, and wintry showers are likely to continue perhaps forming more isolated bands by mid-day. Some sunshine at times too. Winds northwest 50-80 km/hr backing to west-southwest later in the day. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs by late in the day 6-9 C.
TUESDAY will turn very mild, after some rain along a warm front in the early morning, further showers and variable skies in strong west-southwest winds 70-100 km/hr. Highs 11-14 C.
WEDNESDAY will see the return of colder air on westerly winds, temperatures slowly dropping all day to reach 2-5 C. Wintry showers may return.
By THURSDAY, cloudy and somewhat milder, occasional light rain, lows 2-5 C and highs 8-10 C.
FRIDAY will be windy with showers, lows 3-6 C and highs 7-9 C.
Somewhat milder by the weekend of 14-15 Jan, outbreaks of light rain, highs 10-12 C.
A colder interval is expected to follow, with deeper cold a possibility later in the week of 16-20 Jan and beyond.
My local weather on Friday remained rather featureless with cloud and a little light snow at times, highs near -2 C.
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Sunday, 8 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Quite frequent strong winds will be the main story this week, temperatures quite variable but often a bit on the colder side of normal. Tuesday will be much milder though. Lots of passing showers but the total rainfalls are likely to be a little below normal.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be windy and rather cold with passing showers, some becoming wintry on hills. Thunder and hail are possible too. Winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr, highs 5 to 8 C.
TONIGHT continued rather windy and cold, passing wintry showers, lows 1 to 4 C.
MONDAY breezy to windy and cold, morning showers but an afternoon dry interval with some sunshine briefly, highs 5 to 8 C.
TUESDAY early morning rain and lows 2 to 5 C, then variable cloud, showers, breezy and milder, highs 11 to 14 C.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will both be quite windy days with intervals of rain and westerly winds sometimes ramping up to 70-110 km/hr, although it won't stay that windy all the time. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-10 C both days.
FRIDAY somewhat less windy with variable cloud, some rain at times, highs near 8 C.
The weekend of 14th-15th looks a bit milder again, with occasional rain. After that, staying rather mild for a few more days and then a more sustained colder trend will develop and there are some early indications of freezing temperatures and possible snow flurries if not sustained snowfalls, in northerly winds. The coldest days indicated are around two weeks from now, so we can't be too confident this will materialize yet.
My local weather was cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and quite mild with highs near +1 C. Wet snow has developed since sunset.
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Monday, 9 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue windy and fairly unsettled although most places will not receive quite as much rain as in a normal January week, and there will also be some sunshine in the mix, at least near the average amount expected.
FORECASTS
TODAY the persistent westerly winds will ease gradually and the passing showers will begin to yield to longer dry intervals away from the north where they are likely to persist longer. Still rather cold with highs 6-9 C. A few passing showers could contain hail.
TONIGHT will start out dry in eastern counties, temperatures hovering around 2-4 C, more overcast further west with rain developing by midnight, spreading further east by morning, with slowly rising temperatures reaching 7-9 C by morning. Moderate southwest winds and some fog developing mainly over hills.
TUESDAY will be noticeably milder with intermittent light rain, west-southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, highs 11-14 C.
WEDNESDAY will become rather windy and will turn colder especially towards afternoon and evening, temperatures steady 5-8 C from early morning to mid-day. Occasional showers, winds westerly 60-90 km/hr with higher gusts possible near Atlantic coasts.
THURSDAY will turn slightly milder again with occasional rain, moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, lows 3-6 C and highs 8-11 C.
FRIDAY will then be somewhat colder with persistent west winds 40-70 km/hr increasing to 60-90 km/hr, temperatures steady 7-9 C, with outbreaks of rain.
SATURDAY will bring potential for heavier rain in places, and strong winds could develop near the south coast as low pressure tracks through south-central counties. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr veering to west-northwest, may be considerably stronger in some coastal areas. Temperatures will be steady 8-10 C, perhaps only 4-7 C in the north with potential for snow on hills.
SUNDAY could become quite cold in a northwest to north wind of 40-70 km/hr, passing wintry showers, lows near 2 C and highs 5-8 C.
MONDAY this colder interlude will break down rather quickly after a cold and perhaps frosty start, as southwest winds resume, leading to rain and temperatures rising gradually to around 10 C overnight into TUESDAY which looks windy and wet, with readings steady near 10 C before dropping back as winds veer back to northwest by Tuesday night or WEDNESDAY morning. A colder interval will then persist for several days with temperatures back down around 5-8 C. Wintry showers could return. It seems like this sort of regime will persist with roughly equal mild and cold spells as winds alternate from southwest to northwest. A nearly constant factor will be the moderate to sometimes strong winds.
My local weather featured a nearly constant fall of light snow with a bit of freezing drizzle mixed in, and temperatures not far from freezing, fog over nearby hills. Because this winter started so early, it seems permanent now and a bit of sunshine would go a long way. Or I might have to go a long way to see sunshine.
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Tuesday, 10 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue quite windy and changeable; today and Thursday will be relatively mild but most other days will be colder and this will create an average around 1-2 deg below normal. Strong southwest to west-northwest winds will alternate with the temperature fluctuations. Rain will be fairly frequent and will amount to near normal amounts.
FORECASTS
TODAY the heaviest rain has pushed through (still ongoing in east Ulster), but further blustery showers can be expected as winds gradually become more westerly by afternoon at 50-80 km/hr. Mild until mid-afternoon when a cold front will pass, highs before that 11-14 C.
TONIGHT breezy to windy and cold, passing showers may start to mix on higher terrain. Lows 2-5 C.
WEDNESDAY will be windy and cold with passing wintry showers, lows 2-5 C and highs 6-9 C. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr, some higher gusts likely in Atlantic coastal counties.
THURSDAY will turn a bit milder again with occasional rain and moderate southwest winds, lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.
FRIDAY it will be colder again with winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, passing showers once again could become wintry in places but most places away from the west coast and higher terrain may remain dry with a few sunny intervals in the mix. Lows 1-4 C and highs 5-8 C.
SATURDAY will bring a complex frontal system producing steady rain in the south and perhaps central counties (10-15 mm likely), with temperatures steady 7-9 C there until colder late in the day. Further north, this milder air may not penetrate and rain may be sleety or turn to wet snow. Highs 4-6 C in the north.
SUNDAY will bring a cold northwest to northerly wind 50-80 km/hr, and mixed wintry showers, lows 1-4 C and highs 5-8 C.
MONDAY will start frosty and relatively calm then cloud and strong westerly winds 70-110 km/hr will set in, bringing rain by mid-day to afternoon. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 7-9 C late in the day. Temperatures will begin to slide back down Monday night in westerly gales and squally mixed showers.
TUESDAY looks very windy with temperatures steady 4-6 C then falling back further later on, with squally mixed wintry showers and some of those producing 2-5 cm snow cover on hills. Winds westerly 70-110 km/hr. Temperatures may moderate slightly by evening then another surge of colder air from the north will arrive, so that WEDNESDAY will also be windy and cold with wintry showers and some local snowfalls in north-northwest winds 50-80 km/hr.
The further outlook is for more variable temperatures, somewhat milder (7-10 C) as disturbances pass around Thursday 19th and roughly every second or third day after that, with cold intervals in between. Strong winds may be fairly frequent all through the outlook period too.
My local weather on Monday was overcast and quite foggy with another slight fall of wet snow (2-3 cm) and highs near +1 C. The snow pack has stabilized at around 45 cm but there's a lot of slush around in busier traffic areas, not too bad away from those.
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Wednesday, 11 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain similar with frequent variations in temperature, a nearly constant westerly wind sometimes reaching rather strong levels, and rain at about a normal winter's pace with a generally colder outlook.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be windy and rather cold with passing showers, some producing hail and thunder. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr and highs 7-9 C.
TONIGHT will stay quite windy (west-southwest 60-90 km/hr) with a few heavier bursts of rain, 10-15 mm potential by morning. A warm sector will be approaching by midnight so temperatures will stay in a similar range to the daytime highs and may actually go up slightly to reach 10 or 11 C.
THURSDAY some breaks in the rain are likely with a few brighter intervals, and temperatures gradually falling back to around 7 C. Very windy at times especially in Connacht and Ulster (westerly 70-110 km/hr with brief higher gusts). All regions will have at least 50-80 km/hr winds also with higher gust potential near squally showers that may develop.
FRIDAY some longer breaks from strong wind and rain may develop as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between frontal systems. Skies will often be partly cloudy with just isolated showers, then overcast late afternoon with rain developing overnight. Lows 1-3 C and highs 7-10 C.
SATURDAY rain will pass through southern and eastern counties in the early morning hours with temperatures steady near 8-10 C. It may only be 4-6 C further north with some sleety outbreaks. The weather system has sped up and will be moving away during the morning hours, allowing a colder northwest flow to develop. Bands of wintry showers may begin to affect higher parts of the north and west, with sunny breaks closer to east and south coasts. Temperatures slowly falling back to 5-7 C. Becoming windy by afternoon (west-northwest 60-90 km/hr), and very windy in north Connacht and west Ulster (northwest 80-120 km/hr).
SUNDAY the winds will moderate gradually becoming northerly 40-70 km/hr, and bands of wintry showers are likely with some sunny intervals more frequent near south coast. Cold with lows -1 to +3 C and highs 4 to 8 C. Some snow accumulations likely on hills.
MONDAY will start out clear and frosty around midnight in eastern counties, with a brief lull in the winds there, but by sunrise a strong westerly flow of milder air will arrive, with rain (having begun around midnight in the west) quickly following. Lows -3 to +2 C east, rising temperatures all night in west, then highs 7 to 10 C for a brief time possibly during the early morning hours, before colder air makes a fast return on strong west to northwest winds; temperatures will soon be falling back to 2-5 C with bands of wintry showers and possible heavy snow flurries in western counties. Winds of 70-110 km/hr will add considerable chill. Further snow flurries and very cold overnight into Tuesday.
By TUESDAY it seems likely to be cold enough for snow or sleet, and a "polar low" is indicated for western counties, dropping south in the upper level northerly flow. This will lead to an interval of wet snow and less windy conditions until the polar low has passed south. We'll have to keep an eye on this, sometimes this scenario at seven days can change into a track further west which leads to a more variable precipitation outcome; there are also concerns the polar low could strengthen and become a locally disruptive event. At this rather distant time range, temperatures are likely to be in the range of -1 to +3 C.
WEDNESDAY (18th) is likely to see further cold northerly winds and mixed wintry showers, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 3 to 7 C, winds northerly around 50-70 km/hr adding a chill.
By THURSDAY 19th, the current guidance suggests a brief clearing and sharp frosts, followed by yet another fast moving frontal system dropping down from the northwest, so temperatures could go from around -5 C up to perhaps 8-10 C with rain before the next batch of arctic cold arrives. This interlude may last a bit longer through Friday 20th into the early part of the following weekend. The guidance after that is suggesting a relaxation of the strong jet stream and train of frontal systems, in favour of cold high pressure swelling up over central Europe. This would quickly destroy what is left of the warm sector forcing it to jump forward into south-central Europe which would then become quite stormy while high pressure tries to exert control further west. This could lead to some rather cold but settled conditions, at the moment severe cold is not necessarily in the cards, just a frosty-night cool-day regime a few degrees below average.
This may be all more interesting to the weather geek than the general public who will likely be saying, "can't make up its mind" -- one consequence of this sort of pattern is that timing can throw off forecasts more than the sequence of events, as we're seeing already with a couple of systems now about half a day earlier than earlier expected. Anyway, this whole outlook is probably a couple of turns away from becoming quite a strong winter outbreak, so we'll be watching with interest.
My local weather continued rather mild, near +1 C up at my elevation and +4 C in the nearby Columbia valley where a lot of the snow has melted in the past few days. Foggy on hills with hints of blue skies showing through thin cloud layers. They continue to get hammered by frequent rain and strong winds in parts of California but most of that storm energy is being dissipated there rather than doing much downstream, other than to feed mild air into most of the U.S.; southern Canada is not as mild but there are no potent arctic air masses around even in the source region where it's closer to -20 C than the normal -30s.
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Thursday, 12 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 12-18 Jan --
-- Temperatures will turn colder by Saturday afternoon, and remain cold for most of the week after that, so the average despite a fairly mild start could be 2-3 deg below normal.
-- Rainfalls will be about 75 per cent of normal values. Some precipitation will be mixed and wintry by late Saturday onward.
-- Sunshine may manage to keep pace or exceed normal amounts, but the main feature will be almost constant strong winds from southwest to west, veering later to northwest or north.
FORECASTS
TODAY will continue very windy with temperatures slowly falling to reach about 7 C by afternoon. A few passing showers or outbreaks of light rain are likely, but there could be some brighter intervals further east. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr, but 80-120 km/hr at times in exposed west coast locations.
TONIGHT not as windy, occasional light rain or showers, although squally at times further north. Lows 3 to 6 C.
FRIDAY will be mainly dry until late afternoon, with just a few isolated showers in partly cloudy to overcast conditions. Moderate winds will back to southwest 40-70 km/hr. Highs 9-12 C.
SATURDAY rain will move through the southern, central and eastern counties during the early morning with 10-15 mm likely, temperatures steady during the rainfall at about 10 C. Variable cloud and showers further north during the early morning, temperatures around 7 C. All regions will then see a steady temperature drop as colder air moves in on strong westerly winds. Showers may become wintry at times by afternoon as temperatures fall to the 2-5 C range, winds westerly 70-90 km/hr adding a chill.
SUNDAY will remain quite cold with a few outbreaks of sleety mixed precipitation or cold rain, depending on elevation. Winds will not be as strong and will be somewhat variable but mainly northwest to north. Lows -1 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C. By Sunday night a sleety mix of rain and snow is likely as somewhat warmer air tries to push back in, but with the cold air well entrenched it may not warm up enough to prevent wet snow from mixing in. Temperatures in the 2-5 C range overnight into early Monday.
MONDAY will be cold and windy with mixed wintry showers, winds northwest to north 40-70 km/hr adding a chill to temperatures in the 4 to 7 C range.
TUESDAY continued windy and cold with some snow on hills, mixed wintry showers closer to sea level. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 3 to 6 C. The polar low feature is less supported in today's guidance although there is still an upper level disturbance and stronger winds instead. Winds northwest to north 40-70 km/hr.
WEDNESDAY outbreaks of sleet, mixed rain and snow, with winds northerly 40-70 km/hr remaining strong near Atlantic coasts, somewhat more variable in east as low pressure moves from Scotland towards Irish Sea. Heavy wet snow could fall on higher terrain leaving some locally significant amounts but at the present time the guidance suggests melting mixed precipitation closer to sea level. It will feel very cold with this mixture in temperatures of 2-5 C (which could be a few degrees higher near coasts due to the warmth of nearby oceans and seas).
THURSDAY (19th) will continue to be quite cold and unsettled with mixed wintry showers and moderate northerly winds, lows -1 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
FRIDAY (20th) the guidance now shows this northerly flow hanging on despite attempts by high pressure further west to move in, but there could be longer dry spells and sunny intervals, lows -3 to +1 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
By the weekend of 21st-22nd that Atlantic high pressure may manage to get close enough to cut off the northerly flow, then as it weakens, a westerly flow of milder air arrives. This won't necessarily resume the fast and variable pattern we're in now, but could last a few days before cooler high pressure takes over from a source over central Europe. Changes during the last third of the month are currently indicated to be rather gentle but there could be some sharp frosts if high pressure is nearby. Also the confidence level in any depicted outcome past the end of the cold northerly spell next week is low (at least in my mind). I would not be all that surprised if an entirely different outcome shows up on charts for the week following Friday 20th during the next few days.
My local weather has one constant theme, cloudy and somewhat foggy. We had another full day of that without much more than a few tiny snowflakes drifting down at times, with temperatures just slightly below freezing. A fairly active low is approaching the Great Lakes with bands of snow, freezing rain and rain but the east coast of the U.S. will remain mild and snow-free (no measurable snow yet at New York City or Washington DC, quite late for this especially for NYC, and Boston has had a meagre total of 3 cms).
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Friday, 13 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 13-19 Jan remain cold and rather windy with rain tonight followed by frequent mixed wintry showers for most of the week, although some dry intervals and amounts in general less than half of normal rainfall. Although quite cold, it will not be quite as cold as the spell in mid-December, nor will it last quite that long (four or five days of the coldest temperatures can be expected, some moderation by Friday 20th January).
FORECASTS
TODAY strong winds will ease to moderate westerly, backing to south-southwest 40-70 km/hr. Variable cloud with some sunny breaks and isolated showers (more widespread this morning in Ulster and north Connacht). Increasing cloud by afternoon and rain by evening, heavier in southern and central counties. Highs 8-12 C.
TONIGHT rain will sweep through southern, central and eastern counties, with more intermittent showers further north, sleet on hills there. Temperatures will remain fairly mild (6-8 C) except in the far north (2-4 C).
SATURDAY turning colder with moderate to strong west-northwest winds 60-90 km/hr developing with stronger gusts likely in Connacht and west Ulster, bands of squally showers likely to become wintry over many areas by afternoon, temperatures gradually sliding down to the 3-5 C range.
SUNDAY the winds will ease although remaining northwest to north 40-60 km/hr. Showers more isolated and continued wintry except in some coastal areas. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
MONDAY will turn even colder with strong northerly winds 50-80 km/hr at times, some wintry sunshine with bands of wintry showers, accumulations of snow likely on hills in Connacht and Ulster, west Munster. Lows -4 to -2 C and highs 1 to 4 C with a significant wind chill factor.
TUESDAY will remain very cold with outbreaks of snow or sleet possible, patchy covering more widespread over western inland regions. Not as windy, until late in the day. Lows -3 to -1 C, highs 3 to 5 C.
WEDNESDAY will once again become rather windy, north-northwest 40-70 km/hr, and continued cold with a few bands of wintry showers feeding down from the North Atlantic and mostly out to sea east of Leinster, but possibly making some inland visits during the passage of embedded disturbances. Lows -4 to -2 C and highs 3 to 5 C.
THURSDAY will continue very cold but more settled as high pressure approaches from the west, a sharp morning freeze likely with lows -6 to -3 C and highs 2 to 6 C, under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Cloudy by afternoon in the west followed by evening sleet or wet snow changing to rain in milder temperatures arriving overnight into FRIDAY morning. Then a few further outbreaks of light rain, variable cloud and mild on Friday with highs reaching 10 C.
The latest plot twist for the further outlook is that the relatively mild spell (often 7-10 C) will persist with small amounts of rain most days, although eventually the storm track, weak at that point, will shift so far north that Atlantic high pressure will build up over Ireland and Britain, most of western Europe; this may lead to some frosts again in the inland south and east but continued relatively mild daytime readings towards the end of the month.
My local weather brought a nasty mix of wet snow and sleeet with temperatures near 1 C, turning to a cold rain in the valley with highs there closer to 4 C. We will stay in this rather mild and moist air mass on Friday, until low pressure moves into Alberta and takes most of the cloud and Pacific moisture along, allowing a somewhat cooler and drier weekend here.
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Saturday, 14 January, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 14-20 January --
Temperatures will average 2-3 deg below normal, despite turning rather mild after Thursday.
Precipitation will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal, and mixed, wintry at times during the colder first five days.
Some sunshine most days will produce a total 25-50 per cent above normal.
Rather windy at times, mostly from west to north.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with passing showers becoming mixed and wintry later in the day as temperatures gradually slide down to reach 2-5 C by afternoon. Winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr adding a chill factor.
TONIGHT will continue cold and rather windy with a few mixed wintry showers. Lows -1 to +2 C.
SUNDAY will remain cold with outbreaks of sleet or mixed rain and snow, more persistent in western counties. Winds will fall off to lighter values and become variable in direction. Highs 4-7 C.
MONDAY will be very cold, again with light and variable winds, with a few outbreaks of sleet or wet snow, more persistent on hills in some western counties (2-5 cm possible there). Sunny intervals more frequent in east and south. Winds northerly 40-70 km/hr, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 3 to 6 C.
TUESDAY little change in most regions, but more persistent snow could develop in parts of west Munster especially on higher terrain, with 5-8 cm potential. Variable cloud elsewhere with a few wintry showers. Lows -3 to 0 C and highs 3 to 6 C.
WEDNESDAY will become windy again, remaining very cold with bands of wintry showers in northerly winds 50-80 km/hr. Partly cloudy to overcast skies in general, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 2 to 5 C (possibly a bit higher near coasts as the strong winds remove heat from the oceans).
THURSDAY will start with a sharp freeze and lows -6 to -2 C. Any clearing will be brief and cloud will rapidly increase, followed by sleet turning to rain as milder air arrives by late afternoon or evening, temperatures rising to about 7 C by the overnight hours.
FRIDAY will have a bit more light rain then partial clearing, milder. Highs 8 to 11 C.
The weekend of 21-22 January will remain rather mild with occasional rain, moderate southwest to west winds at times. This will also be the dominant theme for the first part of the following week but high pressure drifting in from the Atlantic will eventually change the theme more to settled, with light winds and temperatures remaining fairly mild although with patchy frosts possible.
My local weather was mild all day with rain by late afternoon and evening, highs near 4 C. This had made quite a mess of the streets with some melted snow unable to run off because of the uneven melt. It was also rather foggy.
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Sunday, 15 January, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue similar, cold until late Thursday, then somewhat milder, temperatures to average 2-3 deg below normal. Small amounts of precipitation, some mixed, some a cold rain, 25 to 50 per cent of normal. Sunshine near average.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be rather cloudy with a band of sleety cold rain, mixing on higher ground it encounters, moving south through the day. Some brighter intervals could follow from the north. Winds northwest to north 40-60 km/hr gradually weakening. Cold with highs 4-7 C.
TONIGHT some clear intervals, isolated wintry showers, frost and local ice fog. Lows -3 to +1 C.
MONDAY will be cold with variable cloud, some outbreaks of wintry showers, light snow possible on some hills. Also some sunshine in places where ice fog does not persist, or drifting layers of low cloud alternately foggy and brighter intervals. Highs 3-6 C.
TUESDAY little change, cold with some morning ice fog, mid-day sunshine in places, isolated outbreaks of sleet or snow elsewhere, more likely near south and west coasts, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 3-6 C.
WEDNESDAY windy and cold, passing wintry showers, winds northwest to north 40-60 km/hr, lows -3 to 0 C, highs 4-7 C.
THURSDAY will start off frosty and clear except for local ice fog, lows -6 to -2 C. Increasing cloud will be followed by light rain that may begin with a period of sleet especially further east. Temperatures slowly rising to around 7 C by late in the day.
FRIDAY 20th to MONDAY 23rd will be somewhat milder with occasional light rain and some dry intervals, with moderate southwest winds mostly in the 30-50 km/hr range. Highs each day 7-10 C, overnight lows 2-5 C.
It may then turn somewhat cooler again as high pressure begins to dominated the regional weather. This continues to look like a relatively small decrease in temperature confined mainly to overnight lows that could become frosty.
My local weather on Saturday was overcast, sometimes rather foggy, with small amounts of rain and sleet, highs near 2 C. Not mild enough to accelerate the thaw so there's still a lot of ponding of slushy meltwater in flatter areas, no doubt roads further out of town are icy but most of the traffic was into town to escape the freezing fog on the trails and slopes.
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Monday, 16 January, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: cold and mainly dry to Thursday, with some scattered wintry falls mostly over western counties. Amounts there rather small and nearly dry elsewere. Not overly windy for a couple of days now, until Wednesday, with moderate northerlies, then back to rather calm conditions leading to moderate westerlies at times when it turns milder (by Thursday night).
FOERCASTS
TODAY will feature a mixture of cloud and sunny breaks, with just a few isolated wintry showers in most regions, more widespread falls expected in west Munster, with snow on hills, sleet or a cold rain lower down there. Highs 4 to 7 C. Winds less of a factor than in recent days,
TONIGHT some clear intervals leading to freezing fog formation, which may become rather widespread as lows drop to about -4 C inland, -1 near some coasts. Sleety mixed wintry showers will edge into Ulster during the night, and may return to Kerry after a break for part of the overnight. Snow on hills in both cases.
TUESDAY will continue quite cold with variable cloud once the freezing fog slowly breaks up (which may only be to low cloud layers in some cases). Some longer sunny intervals likely near coasts. The mixed sleety showers over Ulster may feed further south before generally breaking up over the north midlands. Highs 3-6 C.
WEDNESDAY will become more windy again, northerly 40-70 km/hr. This will produce a few bands of mixed wintry showers with snow on hills in Connacht and Ulster, parts of west Munster. Irish Sea streamers will likely stay closer to the Welsh side but any trough activity embedded in the northerly flow could bring a few snow showers into the southeast briefly. Lows -4 to -1 C and highs 3 to 6 C.
THURSDAY will start out with a more severe freeze under widespread clear skies and lows -6 to -2 C. Freezing fog may return and persist to about mid-day in some cases. Sunny elsewhere until cloud arrives from the west late in the day. East Ulster will still be under some threat of mixed wintry showers in the morning too. Rain will spread in by evening west to early morning Friday east, possibly starting as sleet or wet snow over higher parts of the north. Highs 7-10 C by evening and into the overnight hours.
FRIDAY will be milder with occasional rain and moderate south to southwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Highs 8-11 C.
SATURDAY will become quite breezy to windy and mild with further rain after a dry start, highs near 12 C. Winds south-southwest 50-80 km/hr.
SUNDAY and MONDAY (23rd) are now indicated to remain mild although the southwest wind will begin to die out and it could turn quite foggy towards the end of the mild spell, as highs remain 10-12 C. Following that, high pressure begins to dominate, temperatures may fall off rather gradually but eventually it could turn quite a bit colder by the end of January as winds slowly come around to more of an east-southeast direction allowing colder air from central/eastern Europe to filter in. There is still plenty of uncertainty about details of that colder spell.
My local weather stayed quite cloudy and rather foggy at times with a few brief spells of light rain or sleet, highs near 2 C. It looks as though we may begin to see a bit colder temperatures and some breaks in the overcast this coming week although no big pattern changes are afoot in North America.
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Tuesday, 17 January, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 17-23 Jan --
-- Temperatures will start out very cold, and gradually turn milder through Friday, the average is likely to be close to normal balancing out the two different regimes.
-- Rather dry for most, and some wintry falls at first, light rain at times by weekend, but accumulations only 10-25 per cent of normal.
-- More sunshine than usual for mid-January.
--Only moderate winds at times, often quite calm.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out very cold and some patchy ice fog may not dissipate very quickly. Sunshine may be more prevalent near coasts. A few more snow showers in the southwest before partly cloudy intervals set in there. Snow showers will make slow progress south from west Ulster, to reach some parts of the midlands. Accumulations of 2-5 cm possible on some hills in Connacht and Ulster. Highs 2-6 C, coldest inland south and east.
TONIGHT some parts of the inland south and east will clear and turn bitterly cold with freezing fog, lows -6 to -3 C. Other regions further north may have more widespread cloud and a few snow flurries, lows -3 to -1 C. Later in the night, rather icy conditions will be widespread partly due to slight snowfalls and also due to freezing fog.
WEDNESDAY will become rather windy (northwest 40-60 km/hr) and bands of wintry showers will move inland from the North Atlantic, covering some parts of the midlands. Partly cloudy and dry in other parts of the country, remaining cold, highs 3-7 C.
THURSDAY there is a risk of snow or sleet in parts of the southwest during the morning, otherwise mostly clear and bitterly cold with morning lows of -6 to -2 C. Increasing cloud during the day, with another frontal wave approaching western regions by evening, with more sleet and snow potential. Highs around 4 C in most areas, could reach 7 C on the west coast. Current guidance is a bit slower bringing in the milder air and it may not turn mild in Ulster or Leinster until some time Friday morning to mid-day.
FRIDAY eventually the milder air will seep in from the west, and any lingering sleet will turn to rain or drizzle, albeit rather slight amounts expected. Highs 8-10 C by late in the day.
SATURDAY will continue fairly mild for most, although cooler air is likely to linger in some valleys in the inland south and southeast, so that highs may range from 5 C there to 10 C near Atlantic coasts and in parts of the midlands. Just a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mostly confined to north and west.
SUNDAY and MONDAY will likely be mild in most areas, with small amounts of rain or drizzle, and some brighter spells too, fog possible at night, highs around 11 C. By TUESDAY (24th) it will probably start turning cooler as high pressure asserts control, with highs around 8 C. This high will not be overly cold at first, but will perhaps begin to build up far enough north over Britain to allow colder air to develop and edge in from the southeast later in the week. It could turn into a fairly long dry interval with some minor variations in temperature depending on cloud cover mostly, but a generally cool theme returning, compared to the earlier mild spell being foreseen this coming weekend.
My local weather is dull in more ways than one, Monday was yet another mostly cloudy day with a few glimpses of blue sky, and highs near 1 C.
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Wednesday, 18 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue to indicate a gradual rise in temperatures eventually reaching above normal values by Sunday-Monday. There will be generally light falls of mixed wintry precipitation to Friday, and scattered outbreaks of light rain thereafter, but few places will see more than one quarter of an average weekly amount. Sunshine will be approximately normal. Mostly light to moderate winds.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy with several bands of mixed wintry showers, giving further snow accumulations of 2-5 cm on some hilly terrain in the west mainly. Moderate northwest winds 40-60 km/hr, highs 3-7 C. Some icy road conditions likely on higher routes.
TONIGHT will clear in some eastern, central and northern counties with lows -6 to -2 C, ice fog likely in valleys. Sleet turning to snow on hills for parts of west Munster. Lows there -2 to +1 C.
THURSDAY the morning mixed precipitation will move off to the south from west Munster, and most places will remain dry all day, with variable amounts of cloud, mainly higher layers allowing some sunshine. Highs 4 to 7 C. Further sleet or wet snow will arrive in Connacht and west Ulster by evening.
FRIDAY milder air will slowly push in from the west. It may take most of the day to remove entrenched cold air from some valleys especially if the morning lows are -3 to 0 C inland. Rain or drizzle will reach Atlantic coasts by afternoon and evening and the sleet or snow further inland, becoming rather intermittent if it doesn't stop altogether, may also change to rain late in the day. Highs near 7 C west, 3-5 C most other regions. Light southerly or variable breezes.
(note that none of these mixed wintry falls Thursday-Friday from warm fronts are likely to reach the east coast unless things change closer to the event)
SATURDAY will turn mild in most regions, lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C. Some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and some patchy fog in moderate south to southwest winds. Some pockets of cooler air may be persistent in the inland southeast at least for the morning part of the day.
SUNDAY and MONDAY will be mild, with occasional light rain, lows 4-7 C and highs 8 to 13 C. TUESDAY mild in most areas with light rain developing, turning cooler in the north, highs 7-11 C.
It will gradually turn colder again after that, but will only cool down to around 5 C daytime, -3 C overnight when and where clear skies persist. This dry and cool interval will persist at least through the weekend of 28-29 Jan and may eventually turn slightly colder, although a more variable regime is possible too.
My local weather was overcast with a few brighter moments, and highs near 2 C. Took a drive north into the higher terrain which proved to be foggy with ice-fog confined to one briefly traversed layer at 1300m, above that it was more or less similar to the conditions below the ice fog (a stratus cloud layer only a few hundred feet thick). It was around -2 C in the alpine levels (around 1500m, mountain peaks of 2000-2300 metres surround the road but another cloud layer was obscuring them). Overall I think the higher elevations have slightly less snow than in an average mid-winter, closer to 40 cm than the normal 50-60.
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Thursday, 19 January, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 19-25 Jan --
-- Temperatures will gradually moderate to milder levels, then will fall back somewhat towards mid-week. The average will be close to normal values.
-- Rather dry for most as any potential precipitation will be patchy and brief in duration. Most places will average less than 25% of a normal weekly amount.
-- Sunshine will probably be close to mid-January averages.
-- Mostly light winds with occasional moderate southwest breezes this weekend and Monday.
FORECASTS
TODAY some sleet with hill snow may continue for a few more hours in west Munster before yielding to overcast but dry conditions. A few wintry showers may come and go in parts of west Ulster and north Connacht. Other regions generally dry and rather cold, highs 4 to 7 C.
TONIGHT a few outbreaks of sleet or wet snow possible but generally rather dry, overcast with clear breaks in east Ulster and North Leinster. Lows -2 to +3 C, coldest in northeast.
FRIDAY slightly milder in most regions, with any remnant mixed wintry showers dying out, followed by sporadic light rain or drizzle mostly confined to western counties. Highs 5-9 C, mildest Atlantic coasts, coldest midlands and east.
SATURDAY will continue a slow warming trend with drizzle and some patchy fog, light to moderate south-southwest breezes 30-50 km/hr at times, lows -1 to +4 C and highs 7-10 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY will be milder days with overnight lows 4-7 C and highs 9-12 C. Some patchy light rain both days, but not too persistent, with some fog likely especially overnight hours. Moderate south to southwest breezes may be more noticeable near Atlantic coasts, as breezes inland may be rather light and variable at times.
TUESDAY will remain mild for most, but a cooler trend will develop late in the day with some slight northerly breezes developing in Ulster and Connacht. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.
WEDNESDAY to about SUNDAY 29th will be dominated by nearby high pressure. This could lead to some fog and local frosts at night, with lows generally falling back to a range of -3 to +2 C. Highs 5-9 C, milder values near coasts. There could be a wider range on one or two days, with some pleasant sunshine possible especially near coasts.
Somewhat colder air may push in from the east or southeast if the high links to swelling arctic high pressure over northern Europe. However, other breakdown scenarios exist for the high pressure, including a return to unsettled frontal passages. Guidance not very high confidence for time period after end of next week.
My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with light snow. About 5-7 cms has fallen. This should end soon and we'll be back to cloudy, dry weather until another light snowfall late Friday. Not much sign of winter in eastern regions, NYC near 13 C and expecting rainfall in next few days. For only the fourth time, there has not yet been measurable snow at New York's Central Park observatory. The other such occasions were 1998, 2000 and 2007. All of those winters eventually produced some snow. It would be a record if this year got to January 30th without measurable snow there. Some snow has fallen in other parts of the region but almost all eastern locations have had far less than a normal amount so far. The Midwest is also generally snow deficient.
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Friday, 20 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 20-26 Jan remain similar to yesterday's outlook, turning milder gradually, then somewhat cooler again by mid-week; rather dry after today's rather limited rainfall in west, and a mixture of cloud and sun that might average slightly more sunshine than average. Generally light to moderate winds, south to southwest at first, later northwest to north.
FORECASTS
TODAY will remain dry in most of Leinster and Ulster, parts of southeast Connacht. Light rain will spread slowly east from where it has already begun on the west and southwest coasts. Some places near the leading edge of this rain, especially well inland, could see patchy sleet or freezing drizzle for a time. Temperatures will moderate rather slowly, highs reaching 7-9 C near Atlantic coasts, 5-7 C further inland and in Ulster and Leinster. Some brighter intervals likely in colder areas, and eventually the western counties under cloud and light rain could see a few brighter intervals.
TONIGHT just a few patchy remnants of the rain, as drizzle or freezing drizzle/sleet mixtures, will be left over in a few parts of the inland south. Some clearing for north Leinster and south Ulster could allow frost to redevelop there. Lows -2 to +4 C.
SATURDAY will continue to turn slowly milder, with highs generally 7-9 C and near 10 C on the west coast. Only a few light showers until somewhat heavier rain arrives on the west coast by evening.
SUNDAY and MONDAY will be mild, with a few outbreaks of light rain, totals of 5-8 mm seem likely especially near west coast. This rain will reach east coast eventually in the form of sporadic showers. Lows both days around 5 C and highs around 11 C.
TUESDAY will remain mild and a cold front slowly approaching Ulster may stir up cloud and scattered showers in the north. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
WEDNESDAY will turn a bit colder again, with moderate northwest to north winds and a few morning showers not expected to be much more than trace amounts. Lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.
By THURSDAY and FRIDAY, a moderate north to northeast wind will develop as high pressure builds up to the west of Ireland. It will likely be dry and partly cloudy to sunny by day. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 6 to 8 C.
The weekend of 28th-29th will continue dry and cool. The high will almost reach Ireland before slowly withdrawing back into the Atlantic during this time frame. Light winds, some overnight fog and frost, and crisp cool days can be expected, lows -4 to +2 C, highs 6 to 9 C.
The further outlook now suggests the high will not stay close enough to maintain a long calm spell of weather but its influence may still be strong enough to keep it relatively dry until around 3-4 February. Atlantic storms will be forced to track well to the north so only their weakened trailing fronts will have any impact, until the high breaks down enough to allow low pressure to drop southeast closer to Ireland. Then it could become rather windy and wet, with near seasonable temperatures (range of 5 to 11 C).
My local weather on Thursday was brighter than we've had in quite some time, with the sun trying to burn off various cloud layers and partially succeeding, giving interesting views through holes in the cloud of nearby peaks at times. It was cold enough for ice to remain frozen but not uncomfortable at -2 C with light winds. Eastern regions remain quite mild with rain moving into the northeastern states, temperatures there generally 10-15 C. The arctic air is bottled up in the arctic islands and is not moving further south, modified arctic air covers most of Canada but temperatures with that are generally above normal values although below freezing. Keeping an eye on east to central Siberia which has the normal midwinter deep freeze, as that air mass can sometimes head off in various directions. There is talk about a stratospheric warming event that could lead to blocking patterns and colder weather some time in February, but so far no really solid indications. The recent trend has been very mild in February after the cold one in 2018 that ended with the heavy snow of storm "Emma" and the northeast winds. All four of the next months of February (2019-22) have been quite mild with early spring conditions at times. The raw statistical data would suggest that mild Februaries are almost the normal nowadays. But this year could always prove to be an exception.
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Saturday, 21 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 21-27 January --
-- Mostly dry and milder, turning slightly cooler mid-week but now looking no cooler than average, so overall the week may average 1-2 C degrees above normal. Only slight amounts of rain mainly tonight to Monday morning, even this will only amount to 10-25 per cent of normal. More sunshine than average, up to 50% above normal. Winds mostly moderate.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few intervals of drizzle, somewhat heavier rain may follow by evening. Highs 7-10 C.
TONIGHT will be overcast with drizzle or light rain, lows 5-7 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with early rain tapering off to scattered showers. Mild with highs 10-13 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with isolated showers. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.
TUESDAY continued rather mild, partly cloudy, evening showers in north. Lows 4 to 7 C, highs 9 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.
THURSDAY some eastern counties may turn slightly colder, as northerly breezes develop there and colder air moves south over Britain. At the moment it seems likely that this will not have much effect further west in Ireland which may remain relatively mild, so highs may range from 6 C in east Ulster to 10-12 C in west Munster.
FRIDAY morning frosts and some morning fog, mid-day and afternoon sunshine, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 12 C.
From about the weekend of 28th-29th to Wed 1st Feb, continued generally dry, some chance of a colder trend in eastern counties (5-7 C) as the high pressure area retreats a little to the west, but it will then return so that temperatures will recover back to similar levels to the end of this coming week (8-11 C). A more unsettled regime will eventually replace the high after its nearly two-week dominant role (from now to around Thursday 2nd Feb). That regime is not looking particularly mild so it may include a few mixed precipitation events in the first portion of February.
My local weather on Friday was overcast and a bit colder, with highs around -3 C.
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