Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 25 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead can be broadly summarized as rather mild and unsettled to about Monday, then somewhat colder and drier with more frequent sunshine. This may blend into a fairly average outcome for the period but it's more about the change in trends during the interval perhaps.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few more passing showers, blustery southwest winds backing to southerly 50-70 km/hr, and highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain and strong southerly winds 60-80 km/hr. Lows 6-8 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with rain, more persistent near Atlantic coasts, and strong south to southwest winds 60-90 km/hr. Mild with highs 11-14 C. Some heavier rain possible overnight into early Sunday morning.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, also rather windy, lows 6-8 C and highs 9-12 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, breezy and cooler, lows 3-5 C and highs 7-10 C. Winds turning more northwesterly during the day.

TUESDAY will start out clear to partly cloudy with local frosts, lows -3 to +2 C. Somewhat milder by afternoon, highs 6-9 C. Skies becoming overcast with isolated showers.

Later in the week, cooler and drier with winds turning more to the east for a time, highs 4-7 C with sharp frosts. There may be some disturbances moving northwest or even west by the weekend of 3-4 Dec, followed by even colder outbreaks possibly.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and mild, with highs reaching 4 C. This has reduced our snow depth without melting much snow, and it will soon be snowing again before turning quite cold over the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 26 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead --

-- Temperatures will average near normal with quite a mild start and a colder finish balancing out.

-- Rainfall about 50% of normal values in west and south, parts of north also, to only 15-25% in east and northeast.

-- Sunshine near average or slightly above normal in places.

-- Moderate southwest winds slowly giving way to an easterly flow.

At the moment, with limited confidence, the second week of the outlook appears quite cold and dry.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mild with cloudy skies giving way to a few breaks later, some further outbreaks of rain mostly over western and some southern counties. Winds southwest 60-90 km/hr easing slowly later on, highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will continue rather mild with southwest breezes, a few outbreaks of light rain, lows 6-8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers followed by an interval of steady rain across parts of the south by evening or overnight. Highs 10-12 C.

MONDAY will be breezy and a bit cooler with lows 5-7 C and highs 9 to 11 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy, lows 3-5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY to about FRIDAY or possibly SATURDAY, low pressure areas to the southwest will continue to try to maintain this mild southwest flow but will start to get pushed back to the west at times so that most of whatever rain does fall is likely to be heavier in west Munster than elsewhere, and it could remain dry much of the time in Leinster and Ulster. Temperatures may remain fairly mild in parts of the west (highs 6-9 C or 9-10 in coastal areas), and a bit cooler with colder nights possibly further east.

Then by about the weekend of 3rd-4th, colder east winds may set in, with strong high pressure developing well to the north. This looks like being a dry flow with limited mixed wintry showers possible near east facing coasts,. Temperatures while colder than average will be marginal for snow showers at 4-6 C daytimes and near freezing or a bit below in some places overnight. Some guidance suggests this high pressure will move west and turn the flow from east to north then northwest which would likely bring temperatures back up slightly towards mid-December, if this scenario unfolds at all, as we have all observed over the past few winters, there is often a lot of enthusiasm on computer models for cold spells a week or two weeks away, that turn out very brief, but on the other hand, this seems to be quite a strong signal for northern high pressure.

We were expecting a bit of snow here as it turns colder with cloud replacing sunshine but it seems to have fallen only on higher parts of the local region so far, could eventually give us a dusting perhaps. The high on Friday here was about 2 C and it is now -3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 27 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead remain similar to yesterday's report. Some rain at first then mostly dry from mid-week on, temperatures gradually falling from present levels to near normal or slightly below.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start off rather bright in eastern and some central counties with showers and isolated thunderstorms pushing inland from southwest coastal regions. Moderate southwest winds 50-70 km/hr. Showers or outbreaks of rain will eventually spread further east with variable amounts in the 5-15 mm range. Highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will be breezy with a few showers, lows 5-7 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and somewhat cooler with isolated showers, winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TUESDAY morning may be rather frosty in some areas and clearing skies during the early morning may promote development of fog that may not clear quickly in some central and northern inland counties. Elsewhere, some sunshine through increasing high cloud. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs dependent on whether fog clears, in the range of 6 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will have rather similar conditions with patchy fog and frost to start, some sunshine at times despite variable amounts of high cloud that may be thicker near the southwest coast where isolated drizzle could come and go. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY little change except that cloud may be thicker by mid-day on Atlantic coasts with rain perhaps brushing outer coastal regions. Elsewhere a mixture of cloud and sun, some local fog, lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7 to 11 C.

By FRIDAY, a somewhat cooler easterly flow will push in, with some outbreaks of rather sleety showers that could be wintry on higher ground in the south, winds east-southeast 40-70 km/hr, lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C. Skies will be variable with best sunshine likely in northwest to central counties.

For several days through the weekend (3-4 Dec) and into the following week, a somewhat cold east to southeast flow is expected to continue; small amounts of rain may be observed around Sunday-Monday as weak disturbances drift along in this flow, and daily highs will be 6-9 C, with some patchy frost likely most nights, but severe cold is not currently indicated as a more wintry air mass remains distant over parts of eastern Europe. With rather low confidence, the pattern beyond that will involve battles between that colder air trying to move further west from the Baltic region, and weak lows that may form closer to Ireland with slow or variable motion leading to several days of showery precipitation. There appears to be some potential for temperatures to drop low enough at some point for this precipitation to become mixed or wintry but at the same time other days could be mild enough (near 10 C) for just rain showers. Amounts in any case during this second week of the outlook would not be very heavy, on the order of 2-5 mm a day when lows do get active, and some days would also be dry with some sunshine.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with fog at times, and a slight snowfall during the early morning that resumed during the afternoon, leaving a slight coating (ground cover here is around 15-20 cm now from previous snowfalls). It was quite cold near -3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 28 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 28 Nov to 4 Dec --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg below normal with a gradual decrease from today's near average values.

-- Rainfalls will be relatively slight, around 10 to 25 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine may manage to total 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

-- Winds generally moderate and sometimes light, becoming southeast to easterly most days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and somewhat cooler with isolated showers dying out by afternoon, winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, frost developing in some inland counties, local fog most likely in north central counties, lows -2 to +3 C.

TUESDAY morning may be rather frosty in some areas and clearing skies during the early morning may promote development of fog that may not clear quickly in some central and northern inland counties. Elsewhere, some sunshine through increasing high cloud. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs dependent on whether fog clears, in the range of 6 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will have rather similar conditions with patchy fog and frost to start, possibly not as widespread as slightly milder air moves into western counties during the night, then some sunshine at times despite variable amounts of high cloud that may be thicker near the west coast where isolated drizzle could come and go. Lows -1 to +3 C (except 3 to 7 C west), and highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY little change except that cloud may be thicker by mid-day on Atlantic coasts with rain perhaps brushing outer coastal regions. Elsewhere a mixture of cloud and sun, some local fog, lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7 to 11 C.

By FRIDAY, a somewhat cooler easterly flow will push in, with some outbreaks of rather sleety showers that could be wintry on higher ground in the south, winds east-southeast 40-70 km/hr, lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C. Skies will be variable with best sunshine likely in northwest to central counties.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and cold with scattered showers more prevalent over southern and eastern counties, turning mixed or wintry over higher terrain. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will continue partly cloudy to overcast and cold with perhaps more widespread mixed wintry showers possible, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

This morning's guidance suggests a steady feed of quite chilly air from the east and sometimes northeast, with some potential for mixed wintry falls at times, highs only 3 to 6 C and lows -3 to +2 C. The best chance for snow at lower elevations appears to be around middle to end of the week (around 7 to 12 Dec) but I should add the caution that guidance in that time frame can easily shift out of the snowfall zone back into mixed or cold rain and also the guidance suggests showery outbreaks that might be hit or miss and more likely to impact eastern counties due to the wind direction and influence of the still rather warm Irish Sea. However it is quite a sustained period of cold weather compared to what we have often seen at this early stage of winter.

My local weather is also turning quite cold by our standards (normal values here are 3 or 4 deg lower than there, but we are looking at days as cold as -5 to -10 C and nights down around -15 C in coming weeks). Sunday here was overcast with a high near -4 C, and it is currently -8 C under partly cloudy skies. Snow will move in from the Pacific coast tomorrow and reach us by early Wednesday, after which it looks likely to turn even colder. These cold outbreaks are going to cover most of North America other than a few parts of the southeastern U.S. within a few days.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 29 November, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's report, as temperatures will drop a little below average during the next few days, mostly dry with small amounts of rain, and some sunshine despite a fairly cloudy tendency. Winds no more than moderate, sometimes light.

FORECASTS

TODAY some isolated ground frost and fog or mist will clear away gradually, and despite widespread higher cloud, some brighter spells possible. Rather cool, highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT some drizzle or light rain in parts of the west, foggy or misty at times, lows 3 to 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be rather cloudy with a few more outbreaks of light rain or drizzle ending around mid-day. Highs 7 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 6 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers in south and east, lows 0 to 3 C and highs 6 to 10 C.

From this coming weekend through the following week, the regime will be a cool easterly flow with some intervals of showers which could become mixed or wintry on higher terrain, and some dry periods with a bit of sunshine despite widespread low cloud forming as this cool air moves over warmer seas on either side of Britain on its way to Ireland. The current guidance is not quite as wintry looking as it appeared yesterday, but changes are small and within the range that we often see going towards some pattern change situation like this one. At the moment the best approach is probably to say that wintry weather conditions could develop at some point in December but the more prevalent conditions at first might better be described as cool late autumnal chill, with the sort of cold-rain or mixed-precip situations you can expect when temperatures are around 3-6 C.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with light snow falling almost all day, amounting to 5 cm or so. The high was about -4 C. We are expecting a heavier fall of snow later Tuesday into Wednesday morning here and the coastal region is getting that snowfall today with 10-20 cm predicted in the Vancouver region.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 30 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead remain similar, temperatures will steadily fall to produce an average 1-2 deg below normal, rather small amounts of rain likely (10-25 per cent of normal), sunshine about average for this cloudy time of the year and winds generally not very strong.

FORECASTS

TODAY some milder air has pushed back in with several locations registering their lowest temperatures just after midnight. This will lead to some outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, mostly confined to western coastal areas. A few breaks in the overcast are likely in parts of the east and north. Highs 10 to 13 C, mildest in west Munster.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy, a few outbreaks of drizzle continuing in west, lows 4 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, highs 9 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers developing in a cooler southeast breeze, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, possibly becoming mixed on higher terrain. Lows 0 to 3 C and highs 5 to 7 C.

MONDAY showers may merge into longer intervals of rain in some parts of the south, with potential for wintry falls on higher terrain, in moderate to strong east winds. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 4 to 6 C north, 5 to 8 C south.

Most of next week will continue quite cold, guidance is a little spread out but is generally "marginal" for snow potential as temperatures may continue just high enough to keep any shower production mixed although possibly wintry on higher slopes at times. Highs will continue in the range of 4 to 8 C for most locations, mildest near Atlantic coasts. Winds generally southeast to east, but sometimes variable in direction if disturbances form in this rather low-energy pattern. The best chance for any wintry falls might be around the end of next week with some guidance getting close to the right parameters for snow to fall, but this is not to be considered a given yet with the spread in guidance that currently exists. There are also some indications that a return to milder, rainy conditions could come eventually around mid-December.

My local weather was snowy on Tuesday with a steady light snow turning more moderate by afternoon and evening, about 15 cm fresh snow so far with another 10-15 likely overnight here. It was also bitterly cold as this low has drawn in arctic air and temperatures fell steadily all day to reach -10 C at the current hour. So we have now had a month of deep winter weather without rain in the mix, just snow at times, which may be a first at our location despite this being ski country, some rain tends to get into the patterns even in mid-winter months.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 1 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, turning colder in stages, average 1-2 deg below normal, only small amounts of rain likely, some sunshine in an otherwise cloudy regime.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, light south to southeast winds, and highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with lows 3 to 6 C.

FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers developing in a cooler southeast breeze, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, possibly becoming mixed on higher terrain. Lows 0 to 3 C and highs 5 to 7 C.

MONDAY showers may merge into longer intervals of rain in some parts of the south, with potential for wintry falls on higher terrain, in moderate to strong east to northeast winds. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 4 to 6 C north, 5 to 8 C south.

The remainder of next week looks generally quite cold with temperatures similar to Sunday-Monday, and more mixed wintry showers possible at times.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with heavy snow to mid-day, 20 cm additional on the ground, and temperatures steady near -6 C. Eastern regions of North America had a showery and mild day but it's turning colder as this arctic air mass floods into central regions and further east.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 2 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Dec 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal.

-- Rainfalls will amount to perhaps 25 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine, while not dominant, will probably keep pace with the low December average of 2 hours a day.

-- Moderate southeast winds backing gradually to northeast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with lows 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY will be colder with a few scattered showers, some may contain hail, and sleet could fall on some higher ground. Moderate southeast to east winds will add chill to highs only 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cold with occasional showers, some turning wintry on higher ground. Moderate east winds, lows of 1 to 4 C, highs 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY will see more frequent showers sometimes turning to sleet on higher ground. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 4 to 7 C. Winds northeast 30-50 km/hr. Some heavier mixed or wintry showers may contain hail and thunder feeding inland from Irish Sea.

The rest of next week will continue cold and breezy, but there may be longer sunny breaks and fewer showers, however some streamers of mixed wintry showers could form over parts of Leinster and east Ulster, also north Connacht and Donegal. Winds generally east-northeast 40-60 km/hr will add chill to moderately low temperatures staying in a similar range, highs 4 to 7 C and lows -2 to +2 C. Frosts will occur in sheltered inland valleys, the Irish Sea is still around 12 C so this will moderate the chill near the east coast and more generally across the country, however that factor will give a strong potential for wintry showers to become thundery in some cases.

The following week (10th to 16th Dec) may remain quite cold but the Atlantic will try to fight back at times, the clash may lead to either a cold rain or sleet and snow depending on track details for low pressure expected to make a run on several occasions towards the southern counties. It should be pointed out that sometimes these scenarios at that time range can quickly return to a milder regime but this is not a strong signal at the moment.

My local weather on Thursday turned partly cloudy by afternoon with highs near -4 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 3 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 3-9 Dec --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, relatively colder further inland as east winds will tend to pick up some residual warmth from the still-tepid Irish Sea (12-13 C).

-- Rainfalls will be largely derived from sea effect streamers although there will also be a few weak disturbances embedded in this easterly flow; as a result, central counties from Dublin to east Galway could see more persistent mixed precipitation as well as some secondary bands in west Munster and Connacht when winds turn more northeast.

-- Sunshine may be fairly limited as cold air interacting with these still-tepid seas (both Irish Sea and North Sea) becomes full of extensive low cloud. This may break up to some extent further west.

-- Winds mostly east to northeast at times, moderate speeds but considerable wind chill.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue with the very slow downward trend in temperatures, with mostly cloudy skies, a few showers mostly in Connacht and west Ulster. Light southeast to east winds becoming more moderate 30-50 km/hr. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, a few light showers, some of them rather sleety, lows 3 to 5 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with passing showers, some mixed or wintry on hills. Quite cold in a moderate easterly wind of 40-60 km/hr. Highs 4 to 8 C, mildest in western counties.

There won't be a lot of change day to day next week, in fact regional differences may be more significant in this pattern than day to day changes. Each day will have similar temperatures in a range from overnight lows around freezing, with slight frosts in sheltered inland valleys, to highs of 4 to 7 C. Streamers of mixed wintry showers are likely, with central counties most likely to see them but no locations are entirely immune given the persistent 40 to 70 km/hr east to northeast winds, and some variation in wind direction when weak disturbances pass (on more or less a daily basis). Eventually these mixed showers may begin to drop lasting but small coatings of hail or snow especially on higher ground, and where that happens, nights that follow may become colder into the range of -3 to -5 C. This is more likely a good distance inland away from the moderating effects of the Irish Sea. Some showers may become thundery with brief heavy downpours of mixed sleety precipitation.

The pattern does not show much signs of rapid change into the second week of the outlook (Dec 10 to 16) and in fact it could become a bit colder at times. Even so, there are a few marginal aspects to this set-up which is why you may note that I am not going to go "all in" on some Dec 2010 scenario even though it looks like a toned down version of that on some charts. This could go either way, towards a very wintry scenario, or just a brief encounter that returns at some point to the mild/wet potential if this flow weakens and allows Atlantic lows to track across Ireland again. For the time being, it looks as though the storm track will be more like Biscay to France into central Europe. This may mean a lot of snow in higher parts of central Europe and especially for the Alps and lower mountain ranges further north. Travel disruptions in some of those regions may begin to develop but as it looks now, the potential for disruption in Ireland or most of Britain appears moderate rather than extreme. Eventually some places may get snow cover that comes and goes with some hilly areas seeing perhaps 10-15 cm snow coverage. The uncertainty on amounts is large, in part because the most likely interval for snow to accumulate is still about a week to ten days away.

So in short, the advice would be to prepare for possible wintry weather to develop gradually over the coming week, but with some chance of it going either way as the regime could either strengthen or weaken compared to current indications.

My local weather on Friday was mostly cloudy and very cold with a bit of light snow not really accumulating, and temperatures steady in the range of -8 to -10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 4 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 December --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal.

-- Rainfalls about 25 per cent of normal, even less in some western counties. Precipitation may become mixed and wintry with snow quite possible from mid-week on.

-- Sunshine generally near average and possibly up to 50% above normal in west.

-- Winds moderate east to northeast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with moderate east winds 40-60 km/hr. Some bands of mixed wintry showers likely, mostly rain at low elevations with some hail, mixed falls on hills. These will be heaviest and most persistent in Leinster and southeast Connacht, Ulster, and a few parts of west Munster mostly over higher terrain there. Highs 5 to 7 C, feeling colder in the wind.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with the showers somewhat less frequent, cold and windy, lows 0 to 3 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY the same regime will continue with winds turning slightly more to the northeast at times. Each day will likely be about one degree colder so that by mid-week, highs of about 3 to 6 C and lows -4 to +2 C will prevail. The mixture of wintry showers will turn more wintry and the wintry components will be observed at lower elevations each day. Thundery showers and some accumulations of hail or snow may develop especially over hilly terrain. There will also be some sunny breaks more frequent in the west. Winds generally 40-60 km/hr will add a chill, making temperatures feel 3 or 4 degrees colder in many areas.

By THURSDAY to about SATURDAY it may turn even colder, although this is not a certain outcome yet, the air mass has to cross a lot of rather warm ocean expanses from west of Norway into Ireland. But there is a good chance of more severe cold with lows -7 to -4 C and highs -1 to +3 developing, with any streamers becoming more snow and hail, less rain or sleet. Also there is a fair chance of 5-15 cm snow accumulations in parts of eastern and central Ireland.

After next weekend there is some chance of a gradual moderation but details are very unresolved as they include developments in the subtropics of the central Atlantic southwest of the Azores. There appears to be some chance of a named tropical storm heading from there towards the Azores and interacting with other lows closer to Ireland. This could eventually wash away the arctic air mass and push remnants of it well back into north-central Europe, replacing it with milder and sometimes wet weather from the west. Further cold outbreaks are also likely beyond the time frame of reliable model guidance.

My local weather was like a postcard all day, sun getting through low cloud layers and lighting up portions of the surrounding hilly snow-covered landscape. Highs were around -8 C. It is clear and very cold now, with the nearly full moon riding high between Jupiter (in the south) and Mars (in the east).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 5 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain the same, increasingly cold with slight falls of rain turning more mixed and wintry in most locations, some heavier localized amounts possible, perhaps a bit more sunshine at times but remaining near the low seasonal average, and moderate east to northeast winds sometimes backing to north or northwest later.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue very similar to yesterday with rather cloudy skies, localized streamers from Irish Sea giving mostly rain near sea level but mixed falls of sleet or hail and snow on some hills, moving west through central Leinster, north Leinster and east Ulster, and also near the south coast with the easterly breeze 30-50 km/hr. Highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT partly to mostly cloudy, cold, passing mixed wintry showers, winds slowly backing to northeast 30-50 km/hr. Lows 2 to 4 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, winds slowly backing to northeast and eventually north 30-50 km/hr. This will cut off the Irish Sea streamers by afternoon and produce new bands of mixed wintry showers feeding into Connacht and west Ulster. Some sunny breaks possible mostly in Munster and inland southeast. Highs 5 to 8 C (possibly near 10 on southwest coast as a slightly milder sector rotates through).

WEDNESDAY will be cold with scattered wintry showers, winds north to northwest 40-60 km/hr, lows 0 to 3 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

THURSDAY will be very cold with winds northerly 40-70 km/hr, all showers likely to be mostly snow or hail, but hit or miss in their coverage, forming bands over Ulster and Connacht, and possibly near southeast coast as winds may become north-northeast at times. Lows near -3 C and highs near 2 C inland, 5 C on Atlantic facing coasts.

FRIDAY will also be very cold with winds more variable, scattered wintry showers, lows -7 to -4 C, highs 1 to 4 C.

The WEEKEND will remain quite cold with perhaps more sunshine and fewer wintry showers but these could be locally heavy near higher terrain, lows around -5 C and highs around 3 C.

This regime now shows fewer signs of being interrupted by the distant Atlantic disturbance that may become a subtropical storm or even a hurricane west of the Azores at some point late this week. Some guidance had earlier showed this breaking through the cold air mass and warming temperatures around the 15th or so, but now all guidance shows that storm being held back in the east-central Atlantic. It's still rather unclear how long this cold spell might last or whether this is as severe as it will become, or perhaps an even stronger push of cold with greater snow potential might follow.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy to overcast and very cold, highs near -7 C.

Note for sky watchers, full moon on early morning of Thursday 8th moves in front of planet Mars (occultation) from about 0500h to 0600h. Will post more details in an early update to appear 0430h Thursday with the forecast for that day (possibly editing that at the usual times).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 6 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures 3 to 5 deg below normal, generally light precipitation from relatively isolated streamers but potential for snow cover to develop later in the week in parts of the east, north, midlands and higher parts of the south. Sunshine fairly limited as the air flow is quite cloudy but some sunny breaks likely to develop. Ice fog becomes more of a concern later in the period. Winds generally between northeast and northwest, somewhat variable during the period, and sometimes falling off to light and variable at night.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brief sunny breaks likely to be closer to south and west coasts. Winds northeast 30-50 km/hr, streamers of increasingly mixed wintry showers moving inland from Irish Sea, and occasionally developing over Atlantic coastal counties from Donegal Bay. Highs 4 to 7 C for most, could reach 8 or 9 C in parts of coastal west Munster.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers, cold with patchy ice fog possible in some sheltered valleys. Lows -3 to +1 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with bands of wintry showers in parts of north and east. Some falls of snow possible mainly on higher terrain with highs 3 to 6 C. Winds northeast to north, sometimes backing northwesterly, 30-50 km/hr.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will both be very cold days with snow showers increasingly widespread, potential for some areas to see 5-15 cm snow cover, including much of Leinster, Ulster and the midlands. Snow cover more patchy or hit and miss in Munster and Connacht. Lows both days in the range of -7 to -2 C and highs -1 to +4 C with the higher readings likely near coasts. Some thunder or hail possible in Leinster. Winds generally northeast to north, with some variable intervals especially at night. Local ice fog may present problems in a few inland valley locations.

By the WEEKEND this regime of cold air with localized snow and ice fog will be well-entrenched with temperatures in a similar range, possibly even colder in some inland counties at night. Ice fog may become more persistent especially near areas of snow cover. Lows -9 to -4 C and highs -2 to +3 C.

Some uncertainty remains as to the duration of the cold spell. The European model has returned to its theme of bringing in remnants of a now-distant Atlantic subtropical low west of the Azores that looks like it could be a hurricane (or un-named storm of hurricane intensity) near the Azores by Thursday-Friday. If any part of that low reached the vicinity of the south coast or southwest England, it could (at least briefly) turn precipitation over to sleet or rain in the south, with a potential for blizzards with heavy snow potential further north. Other guidance shows a less intrusive run of this low into the Bay of Biscay and south-central France by about mid-week (Wed-Fri 15-17 Dec). That might lead to some outbreaks of heavier snow in eastern Ireland as the gradient would back to east-southeast at times.

I am noting one or two cautionary signs too about this cold spell, such as a lack of really robust upper level support on some guidance that might weaken the intensity of the cold while not necessarily affecting the overall range of possible weather types and duration (this would perhaps play out in more persistent mixed falls and onshore somewhat milder than forecast flows), and also the whole concept of the mid-Atlantic stormy development when combined with the usual uncertainty at that time range suggests that we should be watching out for a faster return of milder conditions as an option.

My local weather remains very cold, this has been a seven-week cold spell for us relative to our normal values, on Monday it was close to -7 C with occasional very light snow that gave less than 1 cm new accumulation. A few brighter intervals were noted mostly off to our south and east with the sun not quite managing to find the low-riding breaks in the low overcast which is hanging just above the level of the local ski resort so that out there, you can only see the buildings and the parking lots but the slopes are hidden behind the low overcast just a few meters higher up. The resort is not actually open despite perfect conditions because they went with climatology and set an opening date later this week, and their staff are mostly seasonal workers from out of town. You can find trails for cross-country ski-ing that are opened up but no lifts working for the down-hill crowd (I don't partake).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 7 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Dec 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 4 to 6 deg below normal, although it may start to warm rapidly near the end of the interval.

-- Precipitation mostly wintry mixtures, with many areas seeing only slight amounts, but locally heavier. On average about 10-25 per cent of normal precipitation, unless the warming next week is accompanied by heavier rain as some guidance suggests is possible.

-- Sunshine may exceed normal values in parts of the west and south, but a lot of low cloud and persistent fog will cut into the totals.

-- Winds generally northeast to northwest, varying from time to time with the passage of weak troughs, and falling off to light and variable at times especially overnight hours inland. Possible strong southeast winds near end of the interval however.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cold, with a few bands of mixed wintry showers moving inland at times near the east coast, and also in parts of Ulster and Connacht. Isolated wintry sowers possible too in parts of west Munster. Some accumulations of snow on hills in those regions. Also some crisp wintry sunshine most frequent inland south and west. Northeast to north, sometimes backing northwest winds at about 30-50 km/hr adding chill to highs of only 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT, a band of rain, sleet and (increasingly as it moves inland over higher elevations) snow will move into Ulster and will eventually reach parts of the midlands and Leinster. Some accumulations of 2-5 cm of snow likely on higher terrain and perhaps lower by the time it reaches colder central counties. Ahead of this front, some clear intervals and some patchy ice fog with temperatures around -3 C in places. Temperatures will tend to rise near coasts with the front, to around 4 C, but will be held down to -1 to +1 C inland where the wintry precipitation is more likely. Some disruptions to travel are possible, from around central Northern Ireland to Westmeath, Offaly, Meath and Dublin inland.

THURSDAY the band of sleet and snow (with coastal rain mixing in) will move further south bringing 5-8 cm coatings to higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow, as well as 2-5 cm amounts in parts of the inland southeast. This snow may be mixed with some sleet or freezing drizzle and roads could become very icy in some areas, but eventually this front will push further south and leave behind a mixture of cloud and sunshine, very cold with highs only 2 to 4 C (could be 4 to 7 C on Atlantic coasts). Winds north to northwest 30-50 km/hr turning north-northeast at times, afternoon and evening snow streamers may form over the Irish Sea as a result, moving some distance inland, from Dublin south to Wexford.

FRIDAY will feature early morning severe frosts and local ice fog as any remnant wintry showers dissipate. Lows -7 to -3 C. Variable amounts of cloud and some persistent ice fog possible in some inland valleys. Highs -1 to +3 C. Isolated snow showers or sleet could develop near some coasts and over hills.

The WEEKEND and probably MONDAY also will remain cold and mostly dry with local snow showers drifting inland with northeast winds at times. Very cold nights -7 to -4 C, days reaching -1 to +3 C. Ice fog could be rather persistent in some locations (central and inland southeast probably most at risk). Monday somewhat uncertain as the first stages of a milder southeast flow could set in by later that day, more likely to be Tuesday however.

From TUESDAY on, the situation is rather uncertain at this distance, the Atlantic may revive to the extent of making a sluggish advance of milder air from the southeast ahead of slow-moving low pressure areas. The subtropical storm potential remains about 50-50 and if the storm west of the Azores acquires a name it will be Owen. Meanwhile another Atlantic low east of the Azores will move inland this weekend over Portugal and Spain, bringing several days of wet weather to add to flooding problems they have experienced recently. Then other low pressure areas will be pushing across the Atlantic perhaps joining up with the aforementioned subtropical storm, or following on behind its remnants. All of that is likely to lead to a gradual rise in temperature through the week and towards the 21st-23rd period which I am advising could turn quite stormy in western Europe. Details will depend on how the battle between Atlantic and colder air masses goes.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with more light snow and highs near -6 C. Snow cover ranges from 40 cm in the nearby mountains, to 30 cm in town here and 15-20 cm in the Columbia valley. Apparently we have just had the coldest November in this region since 1985.

I am not very optimistic about clear skies in many parts of Ireland around 0500-0600h late tonight for viewing the Moon-Mars event, but will post a brief update around 0430h on that subject as well as updating the weather alert for incoming wintry precipitation for early risers. Forecast will likely be updated again around 0630h-0730h as per usual schedule.

M.T. Cranium

Update __ 8 Dec 2022 __ 0100h

Unfortunately 70 to 90 per cent cloud cover across much of Ireland with some spots fully overcast.

If you do have a break then the occultation begins around 0455h and ends around 0555h, lasting moments longer in south than north, and starting a minute or two earlier in west than in east. Those are the two times to be watching, any time in between you would see the full moon but Mars would be somewhere out of view behind it.

On the weather scene, a weak front is currently situated close to the NI-ROI border and drifting south. Mixed wintry showers are indicated on radar and from reporting sites. These will move gradually towards a Roscommon to Dublin line by 0700h. Results may be somewhat spotty with potential for small snow or sleet coatings to develop, also even if showers briefly rain, black ice potential exists and also in most rural areas further south ahead of this front, would advise driving with caution as roads may appear bare and yet traction may be lost quickly. Roads that are close to any bodies of water such as small lakes or nearby rivers can be particularly susceptible to black ice. If you have a car thermometer and notice temperatures rising through a range of -4 to zero C, this is also a warning sign as this can be associated with atmospheric saturation at ground level. Black ice can occur when air temps are near or above freezing, if the ground has previously been colder due to clear skies then.

I may update this again but only if there's a large change in either aspect of the situation, otherwise, will post the usual forecast package at the usual time (after 0700h).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 8 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead remain mostly cold and rather dry except for a few parts of the northwest which may see more frequent wintry mixed showers, by elevation (rain sea level, sleet 50m asl, snow 100m asl might be a rough guide). Isolated pockets of wintry mixtures also near higher ground in east and south. Slow moderation expected next week with very mild conditions possible either at the end of this interval or just beyond it.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be a very cold day with little recovery in temperature expected from current values which are close to the freezing point near the weak front moving south, somewhat below freezing in clearer spots further south, and 1-2 C in the northerly air stream moving in behind the front. As it drops further south, this band of mixed sleety precipitation is likely to turn more to snow with coatings of 1 or 2 cm the most likely outcome for the inland southeast and south central counties, although the moisture will be exhausted fairly soon. Icy roads have already developed in some central counties and may develop soon in the southeast and south, even parts of the inland southwest. Skies will be partly cloudy in general once the weak front passes, sometimes turning overcast, with scattered light wintry showers, perhaps turning heavier near the east coast especially by later afternoon and evening.Mixed wintry showers likely in parts of Donegal and north Connacht. Highs 2 to 4 C. Winds northerly 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and very cold, with some locally heavy snow showers possible near the Dublin-Wicklow mountains and southeast coastal regions. Donegal and parts of north Connacht could see wintry mixed showers continuing also, Snow most likely to be above 100 meters asl, sleet lower down. Lows inland -4 to -2 C, some coasts will remain closer to freezing. Some freezing fog possible in central counties and the inland south, southeast.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cold with winds slowly backing to northwest 30-50 km/hr. Frequent wintry showers likely in Donegal, western NI and north Connacht, some snow accumulations 2-5 cm on hills. Isolated wintry showers elsewhere. Some persistent freezing fog may be slow to dissipate, but coastal areas could become sunny at times. Highs 1 to 4 C.

From SATURDAY to MONDAY the cold will remain more or less steady state with a gradual return of wind directions from northwest Saturday to northeast Sunday and east or southeast by Monday. This may change the distribution of any wintry showers forming over nearby warmer waters, but many places will remain generally dry, apart from freezing fog at night that may take a few hours to thin out each morning, as lows will be generally in the -5 to -2 C range. We can't rule out isolated heavier snow showers which might leave isolated coverings of several centimeters and if that happens overnight lows close to the snow cover could fall lower (to -8 C). Daytime highs generally 1 to 5 C through this interval, and winds generally rather light but any slight breeze feeling very cold.

NEXT WEEK will gradually moderate, a lot of the guidance has converged on the idea that a southeast flow of rather chilly but not quite as cold air will continue most of the week with much milder air edging slowly towards the southwest late in the week, and then the resistance of the more distant cold air will quickly decrease allowing in much warmer southerly winds with temperatures by the following weekend (17th-18th) possibly back to the 10-13 C range, with some rain at times. At the moment, there does not appear to be much potential for snow streamers to develop in the southeast flow but isolated snow flurries or sleet could be expected if the flow remains in that direction for several days.

Once the weather regime changes to milder, it may remain that way but I would expect a reload of cold to occur some time within two to three weeks, perhaps around or just after Christmas, or in early January.

My local weather was overcast all day, and there was no view of the Moon anywhere within driving distance; temperatures have remained steady near -6 C and a few outbreaks of light snow have begun in the past hour. I gather that some of you near the south coast had a view of the occultation event.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 9 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 Dec and OUTLOOK 16 to 25 Dec

-- Temperatures will average 4 to 6 deg below normal to the 15th and will then warm up gradually, accelerating warmer conditions by 18th-19th, average temperatures may run 1-3 deg above normal from then to Christmas holiday period.

-- Precipitation mostly snow or sleet where it does fall, to about 16th, but rather limited to three main areas, inland northwest above 100m, inland southwest on hills, and near east coast with limited extent inland. Some central counties dry to 16th or so. Rain at times in the milder period to follow, but not excessive amounts, as a rather dry trend may continue in most areas.

-- Sunshine may be generous if ineffective in raising temperatures to about 15th, but some areas will have extensive low cloud and persistent fog cutting into amounts.

-- Winds variable in direction during the colder spell, and mostly southwest to west after 17th.

FORECASTS

TODAY -- alert for widespread icy roads and pavements, drive or walk with extreme caution -- the day will remain very cold with some wintry sunshine in places, also persistent ice fog in a few valley locations inland. Winds have backed around to northwest (light and variable inland at times) and this will feed in mixed wintry showers for counties near Donegal Bay, some heavy snow accumulations possible in Donegal and parts of north Connacht above 100m, sleety mixed showers closer to the coast. Isolated wintry showers elsewhere. Highs -1 to +4 C, with 1-2 C most likely.

TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy with some lingering mixed wintry showers in the north and northwest. Ice fog may become more persistent. Lows -7 to -4 C.

SATURDAY will see further mixed wintry showers in the north and west, but they may show up at times near the east coast as winds (mostly a factor near coasts) will back to north-northeast. Some persistent ice fog, some patchy sunshine where low clouds break, highs -1 to +4 C.

From SUNDAY to about FRIDAY 16th, cold air will remain in place and temperatures will remain in that same range, highs -1 to +4 C, and lows -7 to -4 C. A few coastal fringes and (due to an inversion) some higher locations may run milder at night mostly. Ice fog could become rather widespread during this week-long cold spell and that will deepen the cold during daytime hours. Some variations in wind directions mostly between northeast and southeast; if any wintry showers can form, that may change the orientation of inland snow streamers slightly from day to day, but the overall regime looks rather stable and dry.

The breakdown to milder weather will hopefully come with a limited amount of frozen precipitation before it warms up but rain is likely then, by around the weekend of 17th-18th, into Monday 19th. Strong southerly winds will develop then, and temperatures will eventually soar to 10-13 C. After that, a milder westerly flow will follow with mostly dry conditions indicated, highs most days 7-9 C, and the long range outlook for Christmas Eve and Day looks mild with limited rainfalls expected, 10-12 C. There could be strong winds at times in the period of southwest to west winds, around the 22nd-23rd.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with light snow all day, eventually 10-12 cm covered the previous snow pack of 15-20 cm and the bare roads and sidewalks. It turned slightly milder at around -4 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 10 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Dec 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal, coldest in the inland south and southeast. Slight moderation will be observed closer to coasts.

-- Precipitation will be generally slight, but more significant wintry amounts may fall in parts of Leinster, Munster and the northwest.

-- Sunshine could be more frequent than usual for mid-December, but some areas will have persistent fog or low cloud.

-- Winds rather variable but more frequently northeast, rather light especially inland.

-- Hoar frost will become widespread whether it snows or not, especially where freezing fog forms.

-- Rather than adding "icy roads" to various forecasts, in general expect icy conditions to persist throughout this cold spell with most severe conditions depending on freeze-thaw cycles and to some extent, intervention of relevant authorities which is unpredictable.

FORECASTS

TODAY will remain very cold, with some persistent freezing fog and low cloud in southern and central valleys. Coastal areas have a better chance of long intervals of sunshine. The mixed wintry showers will continue over Connacht and west Ulster and may be found elsewhere although quite isolated. Highs -1 to +5 C.

TONIGHT will bring another mix of freezing fog inland, low cloud in places, a few wintry showers, and clear intervals. Lows -7 to -3 C.

SUNDAY as winds turn back to the northeast, the Dublin region could see another episode of scattered snow showers from the Irish Sea, with amounts 5-20 cm (heavier amounts most likely to be in south Dublin and north Wicklow). Other regions will have a mixture of cloud and sun with some persistent fog and low cloud.

MONDAY to FRIDAY these cold conditions will continue with slight changes in wind direction determining where the snow or mixed wintry showers could strike. Lows will continue -7 to -2 C and highs mostly in the range of 0 to 6 C, sometimes lower though. There could be very slight moderating trends for the western counties whenever winds become northwest, but the inland southeast will be particularly cold all week. Several more opportunities exist for east coast snow showers to develop and there could also be accumulations of snow in parts of Munster, north Connacht above 150m, and west Ulster above 100m asl. There could be sleety precipitation towards the end of the week as somewhat milder air presses closer.

Slight moderation will continue next weekend (17th-18th) with a stronger surge of mild air expected to arrive with rain around Sunday night into Monday 19th. Temperatures then could soar into the 9-12 C range. Guidance for the week after that event, while still showing a mainly west to northwest flow, has recently backed off staying mild and it could vary between modified cold days (3-7 C) and the occasional milder intrusion.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with just a slight amount of freezing drizzle and snow grains, temperatures steady -4 to -6 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 11 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg below normal as colder values yield to mild readings late in the interval. Some significant potential for moderate falls of wintry precipitation near south coast and (today mostly) east coast. Dry most other regions. Some sunshine in a few places, but widespread low cloud or persistent freezing fog.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be very cold with some localized heavy snow showers in parts of Dublin and Wicklow, most likely to accumulate some distance inland and above 50 to 100 metres elevation, most favored locations near 200 metres, could see 15 cm, but 5 cm more widespread in that zone. Elsewhere a mixture of persistent freezing fog becoming a low overcast around mid-day, and sunny locations more likely to be found closer to some coasts, while a few wintry showers come and go in a few locations. Highs -2 to +4 C.

TONIGHT any lingering snow showers in the east will dissipate, and skies in many areas will become foggy with ice on roads and pavements becoming quite widespread by morning. A few clear spots too. Lows -8 to -4 C.

MONDAY will be a relatively dry day with either persistent freezing fog to low cloud, or wintry sunshine. Isolated wintry showers. Highs -2 to +5 C.

TUESDAY into WEDNESDAY, some guidance now shows potential for wintry mixed precipitation, turning to heavy snow inland, could edge into the south coast and spread over most of Munster and south Leinster. This is not yet certain (the origin would be an Atlantic storm trying to push the cold air away). If it happens, I would expect a more definite consensus of guidance within a few hours to perhaps Monday morning. If the wintry mix remains off the coast, there could still be some bands of wintry showers pushing into the south coast on southeast winds 30-50 km/hr. Further north these days will continue similar to today and Monday, dry and very cold. Lows for these two days -7 to -1 C and highs -1 to 6 C.

By THURSDAY and FRIDAY the cold air mass will perhaps be moderating slightly and skies mostly cloudy with a few breaks of sunshine, some ice fog at night. Lows -5 to 0 C and highs 1 to 7 C.

Around SATURDAY somewhat milder air will push in from the southeast, and there could be an interval of frozen precipitation, mixed at first then a cold rain by later or overnight, temperatures slowly rising through the range -4 to +2 C.

SUNDAY 18th or possibly MONDAY 19th much milder air will arrive on strong southerly winds, and there will be some further rain, as temperatures rise to about 10-13 C.

This milder spell may see strong winds at times, and continued relatively mild temperatures 7-10 C. The outlook is quite uncertain but at this point the Christmas outlook is breezy and mild with occasional rain, readings near 10 C.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with a steady light snow that was changing to drizzle just below the elevation of the town, and was falling as light rain in the Columbia valley. Temperatures ranged from -1 C at my location to +3 C in the valley. A further 10 cm of snow accumulated here. The northeastern states are turning colder with some light to moderate snow inland, mixed sleety falls near the coast. Heavy rain and mountain snows are moving through California and this system will bring a mild southerly flow into the plains states next week, culminating in an outbreak of severe storms mid-week, with snow over the northern plains and central Rockies. That storm will allow cold dry air to return here so we should have a full week to dig out of the rather heavy dump of snow we saw all of Friday and Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 12 December, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar, very cold to about Friday, then moderation towards very mild by Sunday. The average will be about 3 deg below normal. Rather dry for most, isolated wintry showers and possibly a brief spell of sleet near the south coast Tuesday, more significant mixed precipitation possible ahead of the warmer air and rain by Sunday, all leading to about 50 per cent of normal amounts in total. Light to moderate winds from east, then north mid-week, back to east and eventually stronger south winds by next Sunday. Persistent ice fog gradually fading out of the picture. Road conditions poor in some places today and at times on other days this week, but the situation slowly improving.

FORECASTS

TODAY may produce the most extensive freezing fog of the cold spell. Light winds will fail to dissipate most of the fog and temperatures could stay as low as -4 to -1 C inland. Moderating influences of warmer water around the coasts will allow some chance of sunshine at times, or higher cloud bases with isolated wintry showers, perhaps a bit of heavier snow on hills in Donegal and north Connacht. Highs 2 to 5 C where ice fog is not present.

TONIGHT will continue foggy in many areas, very cold, lows -7 to -4 C. Clear intervals possible near some coasts. The wintry showers may ease to isolated in the north.

TUESDAY could see some sleet and inland snow in some parts of the south although guidance continues to be less than emphatic, the storm that was almost Owen has tried to push the cold air back but appears too weak to succeed, and will be shunted into the Iberian peninsula which does not (in some cases) need the further rain it will bring there. Any mixed precipitation from the fronts will probably be rather sporadic and not leave large amounts, and in any case central and northern counties will likely stay dry and partly cloudy once any fog dissipates. Winds rather brisk east-southeast near the south coast, more moderate northeast elsewhere, highs 2 to 5 C, possibly 6-8 C along southwest coast.

WEDNESDAY one last northerly breeze will develop and this could bring in wintry showers on some coasts, but inland it will be a mix of freezing fog, low cloud, and sunny intervals developing later. Lows -5 to 0 C and highs 2 to 7 C.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy and slightly milder in places, with freezing fog perhaps less widespread. Lows -4 to +2 C and highs 3 to 8 C.

FRIDAY will be overcast and there could be a few outbreaks of sleet, light rain near south coast, still rather cold, lows -4 to +2 C and highs around 4 to 9 C.

SATURDAY will perhaps produce intervals of sleet or snow ahead of a warm front expected to push through rapidly overnight into Sunday morning, winds southeast 40-70 km/hr, and temperatures steady 2 to 5 C, rising overnight to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be windy and mild with some rain at times, winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr, highs 10 to 13 C.

It will stay rather mild and become more windy at times, especially near Atlantic coasts where gusts to 110 km/hr or higher will be possible around Monday-Tuesday (19th-20th), and further disturbances are likely at times up to the holiday period. Temperatures may oscillate between 5 and 10 C as fronts pass in that week.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast and rather misty with a somewhat milder high of -1 C. Skies began to clear, although still rather foggy at times, and we have had our first sighting of setting sun, and then the moon, in over a week. The east coast got the sleet and snow expected with heaviest falls of 10-20 cm in parts of central NY state and western New England. This storm will intensify out in the Atlantic and loop around giving Nova Scotia near blizzard conditions later tomorrow before it completes the loop and presses on to end the cold spell in Ireland (it may not be quite that simple as there are a lot of moving parts to this system eventually, meanwhile what's left of the first low heading for Spain will be over parts of the central Mediterranean later in the week. The cold air is getting pushed back some distance but not necessarily disappearing entirely so it could be back again if not later this month then probably in early to mid January.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 13 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Dec --

-- Temperatures will rise gradually, rather slowly at first, then quite sharply this weekend. The average for the interval may be fairly close to normal as a result.

-- Precipitation will be mixed at first, then mostly rain by the weekend. The totals will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine will be infrequent except in a few parts of the north.

-- Winds will often be east to southeast at first, then south to southwest. No damaging strong winds are indicated but it will be a lot windier than the past two weeks by this weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks in the overcast across the north. Freezing fog should transition to mist and then broken layers of low cloud as an east to northeast wind 30-50 km/hr sets in. The south coast counties could have outbreaks of rain near the coast, sleet inland with potential for 2-5 cm snowfalls on some higher terrain inland. Winds rather brisk near the coast, east-southeast 40-70 km/hr. Scattered mixed wintry showers may develop further north too. Highs generally 2 to 6 C.

TONIGHT will be windy and cold with some clearing in places, freezing fog unlikely to redevelop but could be found in a few sheltered locations, as winds east to northeast 40 to 60 km/hr. The guidance suggests this flow will be stable and Irish Sea streamers will not be widespread or very significant but we'll keep an eye on that just in case. Lows -4 to 0 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue rather windy and cold with easterly winds backing to northerly by evening, some wintry sunshine is likely with isolated wintry showers (again, will be required to monitor the east wind situation for Irish Sea activity, not widely indicated at this point). Highs 1 to 5 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals. Winds will be rather brisk northerly for a time on Thursday and will then ease again by Thursday night into Friday, and this could see a return of some freezing fog conditions inland. Lows both days -5 to -1 C, highs 0 to 5 C except 5-8 C south coast.

SATURDAY will become overcast with outbreaks of sleet turning to light rain. Lows -2 to +4 C and highs 3 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will turn milder with moderate south to southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C. There will be some rain at times, 5-15 mm expected.

MONDAY will become very windy with passing showers, some with hail or thunder. Winds west-southwest 70-110 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

The current guidance suggests that it may turn a bit colder for a day or two, not as cold as this week though, and then could be slightly milder again by about Friday 23rd, with light rain. The Christmas holiday outlook is uncertain as this milder interval may fade out with a somewhat colder than average spell indicated for part of the holiday period. Confidence is however low in any outlooks beyond this weekend.

My local weather was overcast with a few brighter intervals, and highs near +1 C. Low cloud bases gave just brief glimpses of the surrounding hills.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 14 December, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, slowly rising temperatures will gradually end the deep freeze and by Sunday it could be a lot milder. After that, the trends are variable but not likely to return quickly to the present level of cold. Mostly dry in many locations to Saturday when some mixed sleety precipitation will give way to rain. That is not expected to be overly heavy and further dry spells may follow with occasional showery rains. Becoming rather windy at times by this weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be a dry and cold day with a rather brisk northeast breeze 30-50 km/hr, and isolated wintry showers that could form near east and north coasts, but many locations will avoid those and see a mixture of sunshine and higher clouds, with highs generally 2 to 5 C.

TONIGHT will become very cold with isolated freezing fog returning. Lows -8 to -4 C, the lowest readings are likely to be in various lower lying districts well inland. Still rather breezy near east coast, northeast to north 30-50 km/hr, isolated snow flurries could develop there.

THURSDAY should see any lingering fog dissipate with variable cloud and not as windy especially later in the day. Isolated wintry showers mostly near west and north coasts. Highs 2 to 5 C. The evening will see widespread freezing fog forming rapidly inland.

FRIDAY could see freezing fog lingering in some spots as the wind dies out briefly under a weak high but near coasts the temperatures will likely begin a slow moderation that might not extend inland until the weekend. Lows -9 to -2 C and highs inland 0 to 4 C, coastal areas 4 to 9 C.

SATURDAY will see further moderation especially near south and west coasts, with rain setting in at times, turning sleety or mixed further inland. Generally rather dry in east and north despite a few brief wintry showers and cloudy skies, lows -3 to +3 C and highs 6 to 10 C.

By SUNDAY, windy and mild with outbreaks of rain. Winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr. Highs 10-13 C.

MONDAY will be breezy to windy at times with passing showers, some with hail and thunder, westerly winds could become quite strong near Atlantic coasts. Highs near 7 C.

A bit colder again TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY (20th-21st), some rather gusty northwest winds at times especially Tuesday, highs both days 4 to 7 C, and frosts at night, then windy from southwest with rain returning by about THURSDAY 22nd into FRIDAY 23rd, temperatures 8-10 C. The pattern beyond that becomes quite uncertain and the most likely outcome would be a rather variable westerly flow where one or two chilly days would be separated by one or two milder and wet days. The Christmas holiday period is likely to be unsettled and perhaps not all that mild but either rain or sleety mixed showers most likely. More significant cold could return at some point either before or just after New Years.

My local weather on Tuesday was mostly cloudy and slightly milder again, highs 2 to 4 C in the general area, the higher readings down in the valley where we found the roads bare and dry for a change, and they had only about half the snow cover we have a few miles up into the mountains (20 cm compared to 40).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 15 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead: Cold will relent after Friday, with much milder air due to arrive by Sunday. After that, temperatures will fall back slightly but it seems unlikely to fall below 5 C in the daytime for most of the period up to at least Christmas and quite possibly New Years. In the milder spell, sometimes very windy and occasionally wet.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly sunny and very cold, highs -2 to +3 C. There may be isolated wintry showers in the north.

TONIGHT will bring a return of freezing fog in some inland counties, very cold with lows -9 to -3 C.

FRIDAY increasing cloud and wintry showers spreading inland from the west will turn to snow over some higher terrain in Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 2 to 7 C.

SATURDAY cloudy with sleety outbreaks of mixed precipitation turning to a cold rain over most lower elevations by late in the day, winds increasing to 40-70 km/hr from the southeast. Morning lows -3 to +3 C and afternoon to evening highs 5 to 9 C.

SUNDAY windy with intervals of rain, south to southwest winds 60-90 km/hr, lows 5 to 9 C and highs 10 to 13 C, although taking some time to reach those levels away from the south and west.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY now looking windy or even very windy at times, mainly from southwest to west, as several lows deepen while moving past Ireland to the northwest. Temperatures in the 6 to 9 C range, squally showers and hail or thunder possible. Winds sometimes as strong as 70 to 120 km/hr, some potential for damage and high waves overtopping shorelines as new moon approaches.

THURSDAY (23rd) will become a bit colder with some sunshine and passing showers, wintry on some hills. Winds northwest 50-80 km/hr, temperatures steady near 6 C.

The outlook for the Christmas holiday period 24th-26th is for unsettled and possibly rather wet conditions with moderate south to southwest winds and highs 8-10 C. Further passing disturbances to New Years could bring stronger winds again.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy to sunny and cold with highs around -5 C. A complex storm is bringing winter storm conditions to parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, with severe storm potential again for parts of the southeast. Snow will then spread into the inland northeast states.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 16 December, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue to show rising temperatures, with the severe cold moderating for two days and then taking its leave as milder air returns. Rainfalls in the milder interval may amount to almost normal amounts. There won't be much sunshine after today until perhaps the middle of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY some freezing fog may be rather persistent but other areas will clear to sunny or partly cloudy skies. More overcast further west with mixed wintry showers moving gradually inland from the Atlantic coast. Highs 3 to 8 C, coldest for inland central, northern and eastern counties.

TONIGHT will remain rather cold with some patchy freezing fog, and mixed wintry showers in a few locations. Lows -4 to +2 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with intervals of sleet or wet snow changing to rain by evening. Windy at times by late in the day, southeast 40-70 km/hr. Highs 4 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will turn considerably milder with strong south to southwest winds 60-90 km/hr, 10-15 mm rain likely, and highs 10-13 C. The warming may be somewhat delayed in the north with sleet holding on to early afternoon in places. Foggy over hills.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY are looking rather windy and showery at times, with temperatures slowly falling back to around 10 C Monday, 8 C on Tuesday and perhaps 6 C by Wednesday. Some intervals of strong winds may develop in Atlantic coastal counties with potential for gusts to about 110 km/hr.

After a brief colder and brighter interval, another set of lows, somewhat weaker, will try to continue the mild and damp theme with highs around 8 C, but current indications suggest higher pressure may put an end to that trend briefly around Christmas to about the 27th, with somewhat colder weather returning, before another round of milder south to southwest winds towards New Years.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and rather cold with highs around -4 C. Currently clear and -10 C here.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 17 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue towards milder, sometimes wet weather, with occasional strong southwest winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and passing showers (these are only likely to be sleety or wintry on higher ground). Highs 5 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will become windy with intervals of rain, southeast winds becoming southerly after midnight, 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures will continue to rise until levelling off towards morning around 8-10 C.

SUNDAY will be windy and mild with 10-15 mm rainfalls, highs 10-13 C. Winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr.

MONDAY will be breezy to windy, with further showers. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, lows 6-8 C and highs 9-11 C.

TUESDAY will be windy with passing showers, some hail and thunder possible, lows 3-6 C and highs 7-9 C. Winds could become very strong at times in parts of Connacht and Ulster

WEDNESDAY, partly cloudy and breezy, lows 3-5 C and highs 6-8 C.

THURSDAY increasing cloud with rain late in the day, highs near 10 C.

From Friday 23rd to around Christmas Day, further pulses of low pressure may manage to keep colder air at bay to the north, and at least most of the country will likely stay mild with occasional rain, temperatures 8-10 C. The colder air could seep into Ulster however, foggy and about 4-6 C where that happens. Higher pressure could win out eventually with a cool settled interval before more atmospheric battles begin before New Years, that being two weeks away, details are quite unccertain.

My local weather (on a rare day when I never left the house) was apparently cloudy and cold with highs near -7 C. Even colder air is due in by Sunday. This will spread into all western and central regions of North America, then a complex storm will develop over the eastern states that could become quite intense but guidance has not really settled on a track, the inland northeast and lower Great Lakes could be hit by blizzard conditions 23rd-24th. Very strong winds could hit the east coast as this pulls north into Quebec-Labrador.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 18 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Dec will be mild and occasionally wet with an interval of strong winds late Tuesday. The outlook becomes rather uncertain towards Christmas Day as lows begin to run out of energy after the 24th but only moderately cold air will be in place, so the weather may turn out fairly non-eventful over the holiday, if these trends hold.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy at times, and milder. Rain will redevelop by mid-day across parts of the south and west, moving north late in the day. Highs eventually 10 to 13 C, with winds southerly 50-80 km/hr. About 10-15 mm rain is expected.

TONIGHT and MONDAY will remain very mild, with southerly winds and occasional rain, but also some partly cloudy intervals. Foggy tonight on some higher terrain. Lows and highs in the range of 8 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will become windy with passing showers of hail with some thunder possible. Winds increasing to southwest 60-90 km/hr, with higher gusts near northwest coasts. Lows 4-7 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY will remain windy until later in the day with morning squally showers but a clearing trend later. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Lows around 4 C and highs around 8 C.

THURSDAY will bring increasing cloud, some rain, lows 2 to 4 C, highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY will be overcast with occasional rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY (24th) may see this slow-moving disturbance weakening further with a few more intervals of light rain, lows near 6 C and highs about 9 or 10 C.

The most likely scenario for Christmas Day and probably several days beyond that also, would be a rather bland weather pattern under nearby influence of high pressure, so at least some wintry sunshine, temperatures generally around freezing at night and 6 C daytime. This could however revert to the earlier idea of milder unsettled weather continuing. Either way, a more unsettled south to southwest flow is likely to develop towards New Years.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with light snow and cold, highs near -6 C. Colder air is moving in and a major cold outbreak through the central U.S. will set up a powerful Great Lakes low by 23rd-24th, bringing very strong winds into the east coast major cities by 24th, and it will become much colder there (so far this month has been a bit milder than average in the eastern U.S.).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 19 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain quite mild for the coming week, rainfall a little below average, and some sunshine likely reaching the modest seasonal averages.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be very mild with a few showers or intervals of light rain as well as a few brighter spells. Temperatures steady 12-14 C may fall back to 9-11 C later. Moderate south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be breezy and mild with showers, lows 5-7 C.

TUESDAY will be windy with passing squally showers, some with hail and thunder, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr and possibly stronger near Atlantic coasts. Highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue breezy to windy, rather cool with variable skies, a brief dry interval mid-day and further light rain arriving by evening. Lows 2-5 C and highs 6-8 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will be a mild interval with occasional rain, highs each day 9 to 12 C. Nights will remain mild.

Christmas Eve into Christmas morning, light rain continuing but a clearing trend may develop later Christmas Day, although guidance starts to split into numerous different solutions around then. It could just stay mild, or a cooler high pressure area could set up for several days, before that milder trend resumes. Either way, the weather does not look disruptive at this point and it should be reasonably straightforward to travel before and during the holiday period.

My local weather brought 10-15 cm of powdery snow with temperatures steady -7 to -9 C, before the much colder air started to seep in by evening and now it has fallen to -14 C, with -20 C not that far north of us. All of this very cold air is going to cover large portions of central North America with a snowstorm, possibly a true blizzard, breaking out from around Denver southeast then recurving towards Chicago by 23rd-24th. Worst impacts are now expected to be lake effect squall bands from Lake Michigan into parts of northern Indiana and western Michigan but further east the snow belts will become quite active around Christmas. If you have travel plans to places like NYC or Boston, it should be windy and cold with passing flurries for the holidays, turning much milder towards New Years as the blocking over North America in place for the past few months will quickly transform to a milder zonal west to east flow allowing Pacific mild air to flood the continent. That may have an eventual effect on Atlantic weather patterns too, would expect a stormier interval New Years to about 10th of January.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 20 December, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain rather close to average but there is some uncertainty about details beyond about Friday 23rd

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with passing squally showers, some with hail and thunder, most frequent in west and north. Winds will gradually increase to southwest 50-80 km/hr with some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT will continue windy and unsettled with showers, winds southwest 40-70 km/hr, lows 3-6 C.

WEDNESDAY some clearing intervals further south, continued breezy with showers across the north. Highs 7-9 C.

THURSDAY intervals of rain, mild, lows 5-7 C and highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy to overcast, some light rain at times, lows 4-6 C and highs 8-11 C. It may turn somewhat cooler with variable cloud across the north as a weak frontal boundary sets up near the midlands.

By SATURDAY (24th) and CHRISTMAS DAY, another weak system may push in, details vary on different models and there is some chance of a clearing trend developing. The length of the clearing is quite uncertain as further disturbances could develop to the west, moving slowly northward and keeping some milder air either over most of Ireland or returning gradually after any brief dry and cooler interlude around 25th or 26th. This outlook being uncertain, it may change again before too long.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with a few patches of blue sky showing, and very cold, highs only around -14 C, and now closer to -20 C. There will likely be a series of minor snowfalls across parts of the west heading towards the plains states where they may develop into a blizzard over parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. The east coast will remain fairly mild to Friday and then turn much colder with strong westerly winds bringing in the cold air flooding into central regions at present. Currently near the source of this air mass in Yukon and northern BC, temperatures are in the -40s to near -50 C in valleys and high pressure approaching 1060 mbs has formed. This arctic high will drift down my way by the end of the week. Once it moves on, we'll finally get some warming after a couple of months of relatively cold weather here.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 21 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Dec --

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1.0 deg above normal.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine rather infrequent although perhaps amounting to near normal.

-- Moderate southwest winds will prevail, sometimes becoming more west to northwest.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy at times across the north with a few showers, winds west-southwest 40-70 km/hr. Highs there around 6-8 C. Further south, less shower activity and longer bright spells expected, highs 8-10 C. Rain by evening in the southwest.

TONIGHT marks the winter solstice at 9:38 p.m., the maximum tilt of our planet's axis away from the Sun in the northern hemisphere. Light rain will move across the south but amounts only 5-8 mm, lows 5-7 C. Partly cloudy and cool further north, lows 2-4 C.

THURSDAY will start out rather bright and breezy, with increasing cloud mid-day and outbreaks of light rain by late afternoon. Highs 8-10 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with occasional rain, lows 4-6 C and highs 9-11 C.

SATURDAY (24th) will be overcast with showers, and rather mild, lows 5-7 C and highs 9-11 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY will start out cloudy with a few brief showers, winds gradually coming around to west-northwest, partial clearing expected by afternoon, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 7-9 C. A few showers are likely in Atlantic coastal counties by afternoon.

ST STEPHEN's DAY will continue cool and mainly dry with some isolated showers, lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

Milder weather is likely to return by about 27th-28th with another slight cooling trend towards New Years, as we seem to be entering a rather low-energy pattern, with prospects for milder conditions and stronger southwest winds at times in the first few days of 2023.

My local weather produced a very low-density snowfall of 20-25 cm in the early morning hours, followed by another cold day with readings stuck around -15 C. This was the energy for the awaited storm for the Midwest and Great Lakes region Friday into the Christmas weekend. The low has moved well past here already, heading southeast through Idaho and looking likely to set off a brief blizzard-like storm for Denver later today. Then it will sink further south into Texas, move around the base of a sharp trough and explode into action on Thursday across the plains states. Some very strong winds are expected to accompany 10-20 cm snowfalls but Great Lakes snow belts could see a lot more. Travel problems are expected to be widespread across the region. The east coast will get off relatively lightly with much colder temperatures and strong winds, but little if any snow, after a day of rain ahead of the cold fronts on Friday there.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 22 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will take a holiday break, until such time as significant departures from average December-early January conditions are foreseen ...

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather misty and showery in a few locations; gradual clearing is likely to set in for most. Highs 8-11 C in the south and 6-9 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT light rain will move gradually into the west, any partly cloudy to clear skies further east will become overcast with the rain arriving after midnight or for east coast, towards morning. Lows 5-7 C south and west, early overnight lows 1-4 C east and north with temperatures rising slowly after midnight.

FRIDAY will feature the passage of a band of heavier showers in the morning, followed by variable cloud, mild with a few more showers likely, highs 10-12 C.

SATURDAY (24th) will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers. Lows 4-7 C and highs 8-11 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY will start out misty and damp with light rain or drizzle slowly giving way to more variable skies and passing showers. A somewhat cooler west to northwest breeze will develop across western counties reaching the east later afternoon. Lows 4-7 C and highs 7-10 C.

ST STEPHENS DAY (26th) will start out bright with a mixture of cloud and sun, isolated showers, some could give hail or sleet on hills. Rather cool at first, milder by late afternoon and evening when rain may develop. Lows 1-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

TUESDAY (27th) and WEDNESDAY (28th) will be milder days with intervals of light rain and highs near 10 C.

The pattern from then to New Years is a rather bland westerly flow of slightly cooler air again, highs 6-8 C and overnight lows a little above freezing for most with isolated patchy frosts possible well inland. A more active and possibly even stormy interval is indicated for the first week of January.

My local weather was very cold all day with sunny skies and a few ragged clouds, the highest reading we had was around -18 C and it is currently -24 C here. There is a large brutally cold arctic high sprawled over most of western Canada with readings in the -45 to -50 C range further north. This is feeding into a developing snowstorm over the plains states with the remnants of the old low dying out over north Texas. This is still expected to develop into a blizzard-like storm especially in the Great Lakes snowbelts. It will take several days for this to blow itself out over Ontario and Quebec, and impacts could last longer in some areas. Mild for now along the east coast of the U.S.; a severe drop in temperature will occur mid-day tomorrow there.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 23 December, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some intervals of heavy rain in parts of the south and west. This will spread further north and east and may arrive in Dublin before mid-day, north Leinster and Ulster early afternoon. About 10-15 mm rain will fall during this period, followed by partial clearing which will perhaps give some sunny breaks between further showers in Munster by afternoon. Moderate south to southwest winds at times. Highs 8-11 C for most, 6-8 C in parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT a few more showers likely, misty or foggy in places, lows 3-6 C.

SATURDAY (24th) will continue rather mild and showery, with a few heavier showers developing, but also some brief brighter spells. Highs for most will be 10-12 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Sunday) will start out in the same general situation of low cloud, scattered showers and mist, morning temperatures around 4 to 6 C. Some brighter intervals will follow mid-day to afternoon as winds veer west to northwest 30-50 km/hr. Highs around 8 C. Some mixed wintry showers could develop over higher parts of the west and north by late in the day and the night will turn quite chilly with lows 0 to 3 C.

ST STEPHENS DAY (Monday) will be cool and bright with isolated wintry showers, some sunny breaks also. Lows 0 to 3 C, highs 5 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will bring increasing cloud and some outbreaks of rain later in the day, a bit milder too, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY will turn milder with southwest winds and occasional rain, highs 8-10 C.

Somewhat cooler around FRIDAY in westerly winds and passing showers, then another milder push from the southwest over the New Years weekend with temperatures possibly back to 10 C. At all times 26th to 31st, some risk of colder air than suggested in these forecasts reaching parts of Ulster especially higher terrain. A frontal zone will often lie just to the north of Ireland and could sag down into parts of Ulster, but it doesn't seem too likely to bring significantly colder readings further south.

My local weather was frigid with a morning low of -25 and an afternoon high of -20. Light snow is starting and the temperatures are beginning a slow rise which should eventually get us out of this deep freeze by about Christmas Day, probably after another fairly substantial snowfall. The Great Lakes storm system is taking shape and the most notable feature so far seems to have been the sudden drops in temperature across the Midwest, despite only small amounts of snow, roads became icy and then visibility fell in the blowing snow. This is only going to get worse as the storm intensifies on Friday.

I do plan to update forecasts but for those who are signing off for the holiday, Merry Christmas and happy new year.