Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

FlutterinBantam

M T playing golf just north of Skerries Sat 31 @1030


On the north Dublin coast... will i need the wet gear!!!


All other forecasts say I won't.

Your view per favore.

Redsunset

im ignoring that downgrade for now simply because all models are coping very badly pinpointing its exact path.

if it stays like it is now then we are lucky to have escaped its wrath,if it returns to form then prepare.

Redsunset

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

M T playing golf just north of Skerries Sat 31 @1030


On the north Dublin coast... will i need the wet gear!!!


All other forecasts say I won't.

Your view per favore.

In a word no.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 31 October, 2009
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Still carefully watching developments well to the south-west of Ireland in case this once-predicted storm decides to wind up rapidly; as of now, the track still appears to be far enough east, and the pace of development leisurely enough, that it will be northern France and southeast England needing to watch out for this storm more than anywhere else.

TODAY in any case should start out quite fine with sunny intervals and streaks of higher cloud, there are a few heavier showers near Belmullet that could graze northwest Mayo at times, but otherwise, only a very isolated shower seems likely perhaps later in the southwest due to one or two clouds reaching an unstable height near mountains, perhaps. Highs today would be around 14 to 16 C, with southerly to southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT, the downgraded storm, and another front joining in from the northwest, will bring 10-20 mms of rain to some parts of Ireland, although it may be rather patchy in the west and north. The southeast counties would be under some risk of seeing perhaps 30 mms. Winds will tend to fall off from the daytime as the storm's circulation is likely to miss well to the southeast, and other systems are rather weak. Lows will be near 9 or 10 C.

SUNDAY will be variable in sky cover with a westerly wind picking up gradually, assuming the storm off to the east develops slowly; there could be some afternoon gustiness and scattered rather squally showers about, with gusts to 45 mph and highs of about 11 C. Because of the general weakening of the situation, temperatures seem likely to remain steady rather than falling as earlier indicated.

SUNDAY NIGHT will be cooler than recent nights but not frosty, with lows of about 5 C, and isolated showers, heavier in the west and northwest.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY are still looking generally breezy to windy at times, with waves of moisture separated by more variable sky cover, temperatures generally in the 7-11 C range, and not much sunshine although a few hours here and there. It would not surprise me if some higher peaks showed a touch of snow as the freezing level is coming down to about that height at times. Hail could fall lower down where people actually live.

LATER NEXT WEEK there are signs of a turn to more easterly winds for a time, with damp conditions and cool temperatures; then by about Saturday there will be another brief warming and showers returning.

My local weather remains showery and quite mild this evening.

Hope you enjoy what appears to be a nice day; I don't think you'll need any wet weather gear in most places during the remaining daylight hours.

Watch for updates in case the storm changes its mind at the last minute. It is supposed to be near Cornwall at 0600h Sunday but is now near the Azores, so it has quite a way to travel in 24 hours.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 1220 GMT
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From the 06z model run, there has been a slight upgrade again on the potential for tonight's rainfall. The storm is still on a track that would sweep the stronger winds into the UK, but a little closer again to Ireland. I'm not sure that this will substantially change my forecast rainfall amounts because I factored in this constant "chop and change" approach of the models. But there's no reason to rule out locally heavier amounts in the southeast in particular. The timing remains about the same; some scattered showers in western Ireland are likely to arrive first in eastern and then southeastern Ireland, so the storm onset will be masked by these showers starting up during the evening. But the heavier and more persistent rain of the Azores storm will arrive probably around or just after midnight. Then it should last through to about 10 o'clock or so Sunday morning. The far west and northwest may not see much additional rain as the storm's moisture shield may only reach about as far as Galway to Roscommon when it pushes through around 0600h there.

I will be watching for any necessary further updates, and there are other threads on the go about this system.

As for the rest of the week after this puzzling event comes and goes, that continues to look quite windy and rather miserable for the most part on this later guidance.

Seems like a fine day so far in the Dublin area, expect showers perhaps by around late afternoon or early evening; some places further west could see a brief thundershower this afternoon.

FlutterinBantam

redsunset wrote: »

In a word no.

Correct and right... thanks.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 9 p.m.
____________________

Yeah, but how did you play?

The rain from the developing storm has moved ashore in southern Kerry and Cork, and should begin to overspread the southern third of Ireland or perhaps more like the southeast half of Ireland south of a line from about central Clare to Dundalk, with lighter, patchier amounts further north later tonight.

I have not changed my forecast thinking substantially, but anyone who wants to wade through some detailed analysis from both myself and other weather geeks should check out Darkman2's thread in this forum. Basically, I am saying look for the heaviest rain after midnight in the southeast, and the counties most likely to see the maximum are probably around Tipps, Laois, Carlow and Kildare. That maximum is probably going to be in the 30-40 mm range, and there could be some thunder with it, after midnight.

My weather here today has been pleasant, sunny with a strong westerly breeze that is bringing down the golden leaves outside at a rate frequent enough to get the attention of our cat for much of the day so far. It's about 14 C outside which is nice, and there are some very strangely dressed ladies on the streets too.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 1 November, 2009
____________________________

Rapidly developing low pressure just south of Waterford at 0600h continues to move towards north Wales and is spreading moderate to heavy bursts of rain across much of the southern two thirds of Ireland. This rain should begin to taper off to showers through the morning giving total accumulations of 30-45 mms in many places; watch out for flooding in various low-lying and poorly drained areas both in towns and rural areas. Once the rain stops, more showers could arrive later and some of those could be rather heavy at times with hail or thunder. Two waves of heavy rain have developed, so in the southeast, if heavy rain comes to an end, you may be in for a second round within an hour or two. This second wave is currently in Kerry and northwest Cork.

TODAY will see further heavy rainfall especially in the southern counties, to almost mid-day, before skies brighten somewhat, but further showers, some with hail or thunder, are likely as winds come around to a westerly direction and begin to gust this afternoon to 30 or 40 mph in places. The sun may make brief appearances too, but with all this overnight rain the main theme of the day could be local flooding. Highs will be around 12-13 C.

TONIGHT will continue breezy and rather chilly with passing showers, some with small hail. Lows will be around 6-7 C and winds will be WNW 25-45 mph.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with occasional showers, leading to a steadier period of rain late in the day as winds increase to WSW 30-55 mph, the higher gusts in exposed west coast locations. Highs will be around 11 C.

TUESDAY will be a windy, raw day with passing showers, some of them quite heavy with hail and thunder. Lows of 6-8 C will be followed by highs of about 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be windy and raw with periods of rain, and possible sleet on higher slopes. Highs will be only about 9 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be windy and cool with more showers, some possibly mixed with sleet or hail. Highs will be around 10 C.

From then on, there will not be very rapid improvement, if any, as this rather cool, stormy set-up seems to be locking in for about a week to ten days. The weekend looks so-so at best, and another strong storm is indicated at this early stage for about Tuesday 10th.

Watch for updates both here and in the storm thread (Darkman2) in this forum.

Super-Rush

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Saturday, 9 p.m.
____________________

Yeah, but how did you play?

The rain from the developing storm has moved ashore in southern Kerry and Cork, and should begin to overspread the southern third of Ireland or perhaps more like the southeast half of Ireland south of a line from about central Clare to Dundalk, with lighter, patchier amounts further north later tonight.

I have not changed my forecast thinking substantially, but anyone who wants to wade through some detailed analysis from both myself and other weather geeks should check out Darkman2's thread in this forum. Basically, I am saying look for the heaviest rain after midnight in the southeast, and the counties most likely to see the maximum are probably around Tipps, Laois, Carlow and Kildare. That maximum is probably going to be in the 30-40 mm range, and there could be some thunder with it, after midnight.

My weather here today has been pleasant, sunny with a strong westerly breeze that is bringing down the golden leaves outside at a rate frequent enough to get the attention of our cat for much of the day so far. It's about 14 C outside which is nice, and there are some very strangely dressed ladies on the streets too.

Drove from Laois to Wexford via Carlow tonight around 3am and the rain was biblical. I had to pull over twice because i couldn't see two feet in front of me, the second time i was stopped for 25 minutes. The flooding in Carlow town will be very bad tomorrow. Raining very heavily atm in Wexford and has been since i got home. No thunder or lightening.

mcaul

very strange yesterday was a phenomenal amount of rain in a one hour period from about 2 - 3pm from Kilcullen / Kildare Town up as far as Citywest.

Literally hundreds of cars pulled over to the hard shoulder of the dual carraigeway & motorway and not even the usual eejits were driving faster than 40kmh.

Once you hit Newlands cross it was nothing more than a small amount of rain and once you hit the M50, it was dry, then from Templeogue it was sunny & warm. When I mentioned the rainfall to one person they thought I was halucinating.

Was anyone else out in this?

Shane Slv

I think i can safely say it was raining everywhere in ireland last night!

Joe Public

Except Donegal, Derry and Antrim!


Think I got that wrong since Ballykelly in Derry got the highest official rainfall today with 38mm

glimmerman123

Torrential downpours woke me up at 4.00am. Sunny and quiet chilly here in Tipp at the moment.

mad DIY

mcaul wrote: »

very strange yesterday was a phenomenal amount of rain in a one hour period from about 2 - 3pm from Kilcullen / Kildare Town up as far as Citywest.

Literally hundreds of cars pulled over to the hard shoulder of the dual carraigeway & motorway and not even the usual eejits were driving faster than 40kmh.

Once you hit Newlands cross it was nothing more than a small amount of rain and once you hit the M50, it was dry, then from Templeogue it was sunny & warm. When I mentioned the rainfall to one person they thought I was halucinating.

Was anyone else out in this?

Yes, just outside Kildare town. Started with a few bangs of thunder, and then a massive deluge. The drain across the road had been clear of debris so I reckoned there wouldn't be a problem, but a few minutes later I was looking out on a big lake with torrents of water flowing down road into it and flooding the adjacent car park. The drainage system was just completely swamped. So lucky to be on the high side of the road. One stage the rain was coming down so intensely you couldn't see through it. Mostly rain, but it had some hail in it as well at the same time so it was making a mighty clatter on the roofs. A lot of thunder too. I too had to drive to Templeogue after this, and there was a lot of rainstorm activity along the M/N7, but by the time I got to Templeogue it had already been dumped on, so I had to listen to other peoples stories when I arrived !

There mustn't have been much heavy rain around Templeogue last night as it didn't wake me up and there wasn't big puddles around this morning, by the sounds of it Templeogue got off rather lightly compared to other places.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 2 November, 2009
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TODAY will start out dry with a few sunny intervals in eastern counties, while cloud and light rain spreads across the southwest, later making progress to most other areas, bringing 3-5 mms of rain and moderate SW winds 20-30 mph, and rather chilly highs near 11 or 12 C.

TONIGHT will continue breezy and cool with more light showers, becoming heavier towards morning, as winds increase to SW 30-40 mph. Lows will be about 6 C.

TUESDAY will be very windy and raw with frequent showers, some of them squally with hail and thunder. Winds will veer to W or WNW at 35-55 mph, and highs will be 10-12 C, but out in the wind it may feel much colder.

WEDNESDAY will be windy as well, but not quite as windy as Tuesday, WNW 20-30 mph, with more passing showers, and highs of about 11 C.

THURSDAY is looking very windy again, more from the northwest this time (35-55 mph), with periods of rain or showers, and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY is also likely to be wet and rather chilly with northerly winds for a time; we can't rule out some sleet or wet snow on higher peaks. Highs will be in the range of 9 to 11 C.

NEXT WEEKEND is likely to be unsettled and cool as well.

The weather here on Sunday was quite pleasant, mostly sunny with highs of about 14 C.

If you're wondering how much rain fell over the weekend, see the thread on the heavy rainfall forecast -- it seems to have verified quite well for the guys who started it.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 3 November, 2009
___________________________

The weekend low is now making a slow victory lap around Scotland, and will drift southwest, then southeast, staying mostly over the coastal waters near the U.K. until returning to the British mainland on Thursday. The main effect of this slow death will be several more windy and cool days for Ireland.

TODAY will be very windy at times (W 30-55 mph) with further heavy and sometimes squally showers, separated by some brighter intervals. Hail and thunder are possible, especially in the west. Highs will reach about 11 or 12 C but it may feel a lot colder out in the strong winds.

TONIGHT will continue blustery with showers merging into longer periods of rain (5-8 mms may fall generally), with winds WNW 25-45 mph, and lows of about 6 or 7 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue much the same, windy and cool with frequent showers, and winds generally WNW 30-50 mph with some higher gusts at times. Highs both days will be around 10-12 C.

FRIDAY will be quite chilly with more of a northerly wind, and some sleet or wet snow could fall on the higher peaks by Thursday night or Friday morning. Highs will only be around 9 or 10 C with the showers more drizzly than earlier in the week.

THE WEEKEND is looking cool, blustery and unsettled, with highs still not much above 10-12 C.

Early next week there are signs of a much milder air flow returning from the southwest, but with strong winds and periods of rain.

Over here, the weather today was cloudy with light rain, and highs near 13 C.

Coast to coast in North America, there is not a lot happening in the weather for a few days, but some very mild weather is predicted for late this week and the weekend in western and central regions.

ch750536

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Tuesday, 3 November, 2009
Hail and thunder are possible, especially in the west.

confirmed.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 November, 2009
_____________________________

TODAY will be very windy and cold with squally showers becoming widespread from west to east, spreading at times to the Dublin area but much heavier and more frequent in the southwest; most parts of Ulster will also see driving rain setting in from the north. Some of these showers could be squally with hail and thunder again. Winds will be WNW 40-60 mph in many parts, and some gusts to 75-80 mph are possible on exposed coasts and certainly higher slopes. Highs will struggle to reach 10 C but could touch 11-12 C in sunnier eastern locations. Note that winds offshore are extremely strong, gusts to 58 knots were recently reported at the M6 buoy, and 52 knots at Valentia.

TONIGHT will continue almost as windy with more showers possibly becoming a little sleety in places, with snow beginning to appear on higher peaks by morning. Winds will be NW 30-50 mph dropping off somewhat in more sheltered inland parts, and lows will be in the range 3 to 7 C. It will feel like -4 to zero C.

THURSDAY will continue breezy to windy, and still rather cold, with more passing showers. The winds will be NW 20-40 mph generally with some higher gusts at times. Highs will be back up to around 10-11 C at most. Thursday night may become rather frosty in some inland areas with any showers remaining becoming sleety before dissipating, and overnight lows possibly getting down to about 2-3 C with local grass frost.

FRIDAY, the models had been showing some northerly winds earlier this week, but this system is now scheduled to die out very quickly (once it finishes the victory lap I mentioned) and a new one rapidly forms near Iceland, so now the idea is for mostly cloudy, somewhat milder with periods of rain becoming rather heavy at times, with highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY, another windy blast of colder weather is now likely to develop especially later in the day and overnight into Sunday, with more squally showers. Highs for the day will be 11-12 C in the morning mostly, with readings falling off in the afternoon and evening, and NW winds 30-55 mph.

SUNDAY will be a touch milder again with variable cloud cover and some showers, and rather brisk WSW winds backing to southerly. Highs will be near 13 C.

NEXT WEEK may feature some milder but windy and at times wet weather.

By contrast, the weather here was quite benign on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and highs of about 13 C. It is slowly clouding over, obscuring the full moon this evening here. Quite warm air is advancing on us from the southwest (this sort of autumn weather expected later this week can bring heavy rainfalls and we call it the "pineapple express" because it comes from around Hawaii).

Watch for updates, although I would say the day is going to be fairly jumbled as to "rain or shine" with lots of fast-moving showers, some very heavy, and your best bet is to check the radar if you're heading out, cells will be moving from the WNW mostly, but more like from the NNW in Ulster.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 November, 2009
_____________________________

TODAY will continue windy especially near the west coast, with showers mostly over the western half of the country and in eastern Ulster. Some of these showers could be briefly heavy with hail. Winds will be NW 20-40 mph in most areas, with some higher gusts in the west. Highs will reach 11-12 C. There may be some longer intervals of sunshine in a few eastern and southeastern locations.

TONIGHT will see lighter winds in general, some clear intervals, followed by increasing cloud and rain reaching the west by morning. Lows will be about 3 to 5 C but temperatures may rise in western sections after midnight.

FRIDAY will be milder with periods of rain, and brisk southwest winds, as highs reach 13-14 C.

SATURDAY will see another surge of colder air on strong WNW winds 30-50 mph (and higher gusts possible). Once again there will be frequent squally showers with more hail and thunder. Highs will reach 11-12 C but it will feel a lot colder.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with light rain breaking out from the northwest by afternoon. Highs will be around 13 C.

NEXT WEEK is still looking a bit milder but with more wind and rain in the mix, not necessarily more pleasant.

Here, we enjoyed a rather mild, cloudy day (14 C) with the sun fading behind thickening cloud by mid-day. Looks like a heavy rainfall approaching for Thursday though.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 November, 2009
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TODAY will start out rather wet as an area of moderate to heavy rain moves gradually east, with partial clearing to follow. Winds will veer from south to about WSW 20-40 mph with a few more showers likely by afternoon especially in western counties. Highs will be near 13 C.

TONIGHT will become increasingly windy with periods of rain mixed with hail in some western counties. Winds will increase to W 30-55 mph, and lows will be near 7 C.

SATURDAY will be basically a rather nasty day in most parts, with a very blustery westerly wind (40-60 mph) veering more northwest in the afternoon, heavy and squally showers with some thunder and hail, and highs near 10 C although it may feel more like 2 or 3 C. Now it may not be quite this bad in Dublin and some protected areas of the southeast, but even so, there will be passing sharp showers and a gusty wind of 25-45 mph. Saturday night will continue quite windy with a further area of rain moving steadily east across the country, with winds backing somewhat to west 25-45 mph.

SUNDAY will become less windy but still rather blustery and cool with periodic showers. The temperature range will be about 5 to 12 C.

MONDAY, there may be some morning frost and a sunny start, with the sun gradually being obscured by high cloud, followed by rain overnight into Tuesday. Highs for the day might reach 12 or 13 C given enough sunshine.

TUESDAY will have some rain at times, possibly lingering in eastern counties well into the following night, but with some clearing mid-week, followed by persistent rain returning later in the week with a rather bleak mix of low cloud, fog and drizzly rain, and chilly southeast winds at times. In general, the pattern is settling into a cool, unsettled variety.

The weather in my part of the world on Thursday was mild, windy and sometimes wet with a high near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 6 p.m.
_____________________

Just to confirm that very windy conditions will develop overnight in western counties and this will spread to most other parts of Ireland Saturday morning. Winds are gusting to 60 mph already at the offshore M6 buoy located near 15 W to the west of Galway.

Showery and mild here today.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 7 November, 2009
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TODAY will be very windy (WSW veering WNW) especially near the west coast where gusts to 70 mph are possible later this morning and around mid-day. Further inland gusts to about 45 or 50 mph are likely, and the east coast may see peak winds of about 40 mph. However, passing squally showers could produce higher gusts locally anywhere in the country. Hail and thunder are possible as well, together with some brief sunny intervals. Highs will reach about 10-11 C, but it will feel more like 2-5 C out in the wind.

TONIGHT will see gradually abating NW winds of 20-40 mph and a few lighter showers dying out, with some clearing towards morning in eastern counties. Lows will reach about 2-5 C with some scattered frost.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and rather cool still, despite much lighter (northerly) winds. Low cloud and drizzle may return to Ulster and some other northern and western districts. Highs will reach about 11-12 C.

MONDAY will have a clear, frosty start with lows of -3 to +2 C in many areasm but 4-6 C in sheltered urban and coastal locations. Cloud will gradually spread in from west to east followed by light rain at times in the west by afternoon or evening. Highs will reach about 12 C.

TUESDAY will start out wet with some chance of clearing as a slow-moving ridge sets up over the west coast by evening. Highs will be near 11 C.

From Wednesday to Saturday, it is likely to be windy and wet much of the time with the risk of some heavy rainfalls and very strong winds (something to be watched around Friday 13th of all days).

---

Following is my Winter Outlook for Ireland

On the whole, I expect this to be a slightly colder than average winter in Ireland, with some very cold periods in mid to late December and in parts of mid-January as well. Milder periods will occur in early December, around new years, and from the end of January through much of February.

In the colder periods, some lying snow is possible. There may be one or two days with snow in later November, then look for a better chance in the week before Christmas, and a very good chance for snow from about the 10th of January to 25th of January, not necessarily all through that period, but perhaps on more than one occasion during it.

Some of the milder days may be accompanied by heavy rains and high winds. During the expected mild spell in early December, I think the storm track will at first run well north of Ireland but if not, strong winds could be expected around the 2nd and 5th. Later on, towards the 15th, there would be a good chance of a strong wind event as the milder spell transitions to the expected colder weather.

Another time to look for strong winds would be around New Years Eve and Day when I expect a strong low to be present somewhere near northern parts of Ireland and western Scotland.

A period around 14-15 January may be stormy with mixed or snowy precipitation as well as strong winds. Then towards the end of January, there may be very strong winds and rain with a return to milder conditions.

February by contrast may be a rather bland month, especially if it doesn't snow in the first few days like last year. I believe that January will be the best "winter" month in the winter of 2009-10.

If I change any details of this outlook due to new information coming into my research or obvious signs of a different outcome, I will relay those as soon as possible in future posts.

---

Weather here today was cloudy, occasional rain, high about 12 C with moderate westerly winds.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 8 November, 2009
___________________________

TODAY will be much improved mainly due to the lighter winds, as well as some sunny breaks, and only a few light showers mainly in the southwest. Highs will be around 11 or 12 C.

TONIGHT will feature some local frost and clear skies with some higher cloud about, lows of -3 to +2 C in most rural areas, 3-6 C in more sheltered locations near the coast or in larger cities. Cloud will thicken in the west. Some sleety rain may develop in the west coastal counties.

MONDAY will see cloud spreading across Ireland fairly soon after sunrise in the east, and rain (perhaps starting as sleet on higher ground) will follow fairly readily, overspreading all but perhaps Ulster by early afternoon. Winds will pick up from the south and it will feel rather raw despite highs of 10-12 C.

TUESDAY will see the rain ending in the early morning in eastern counties, but it may stay cloudy in some eastern counties for the morning hours, while some sunshine develops further west. Lows will depend on the time of clearing, 2-5 C will be the general range. Highs will reach about 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are looking cloudy, rainy at times, and rather windy. A complex and deep storm system is still being featured for Friday night and Saturday morning in areas either over or just to the south of Ireland; stay tuned for the evolving forecasts on that system.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with periods of rain, and a rather chilly high of about 9 C.

--- Just a note, I may not be very regular in my forecast posting on Monday and possibly into mid-week; some family business is taking me on a brief long-distance road trip and I'm not sure how much internet access I will find. Perhaps some of the other boards forecasters could look in and add some forecasts if they see the need. Thanks in advance. -- MTC.

Duiske

Hi MT. RTE weather actually called this storm earlier in the week, tuesday if i remember correctly. Surprised me a bit in that they would mention it so far out. They mentioned Thurday night / Friday, so they are about 24hrs out, but still a good call.

Look pretty potent at the moment, but still a long way off.

Anyway, hope the weather gods look kindly on you during your journey.

ch750536

MT, take a break bud, posting at 6.25am on a Sunday...

Joe Public

ch750536 wrote: »

MT, take a break bud, posting at 6.25am on a Sunday...

Don't forget where MT lives!!!!

M.T. Cranium

Yep, don't worry about old MTC overworking himself at odd hours, I am eight hours behind the real world ... so the morning forecasts fit into my day rather easily at around 9-10 pm when I also work on a forecast for a UK forum.

Just wanted to mention that the Friday or Saturday monster storm event seems to have vanished from the 12z runs of the GFS and GEM models, but I haven't seen the 12z ECM yet (it comes in a bit later), and I won't have that opportunity as I am about to head out on this long road trip. For that same reason, my Monday morning forecast may not appear on time or even at all, so if any of the usual suspects would like to have a go at a Monday forecast at any point (even late this evening) please do, it would be greatly appreciated. I hope to keep up with the situation from later Monday on, so "see you then." Weather here is raining and about 7 C, probably snowing above 500 metres in the local mountains, which is good if we are going to stage these winter Olympics on real snow and not the man-made variety.

Redsunset

An occluding low pressure system over the East Atlantic will affect the British Isles in the afternoon / evening hours. The cold front which should cross Ireland during Monday afternoon is forecast to weaken, but some low-end instability near the occlusion point may lead to showers and thunderstorms over SW Ireland, Wales, SW / S England and extreme NW France. Other regions remain rather quiet as cold air overspreads large portions of eastern and central Europe and an upper ridge stretches northeastward from Iberia towards France.

DISCUSSION

...SW Ireland, Irish Sea, Wales, SW England, extreme NW France...

Ahead of the cold front of an occluding surface low, a few hundred J/kg are forecast in a region with strong deep layer shear and enhanced SRH3. Storms will probably organise into multicellular lines which may produce an isolated severe gust and / or a brief tornado but overall storm coverage is probably too low for a level 1.

Strong deep layer shear and a few hundred J/kg CAPE are also forecast for the S Bay of Biscay but rather weak QG forcing as well as low level CAA in the wake of the trough should limit the potential of severe thunderstorms. An isolated severe gust is not ruled out, though.

pauldry

Very wet MONDAY

drier TUESDAY

dry then wet WEDNESDAY

showery THURSDAY AND FRIDAY windy too

SATURDAY slight storm risk in South

system admin
http://weathergossip.com

M.T. Cranium

TUESDAY, 10 NOVEMBER, 2009
__________________________

Just an abbreviated forecast from me this morning ...

TODAY should see some partial clearing from west to east and some fairly long sunny intervals could develop, with highs near 11 C.

From tonight to about Friday evening, it will be raining off and on and winds will increase gradually from about 20-30 mph (SE) on Wednesday to 35-45 mph (SSW) on Friday. Although the major storm potential was dropped by the models on Monday, it still looks possible that there could be a period of stronger winds some time Friday. In any case, temperatures will be rather mild in this wet period, 12-14 C.

The weekend looks a bit more showery than a steady rain, with highs around 13 C.

I will continue to try to look in on the forecast until I get home late Wednesday. Where I am now, it has been about 4 C all day with rain since mid-afternoon, and snow falling on nearby mountains just above my current elevation (which is about 400 m asl).