BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

Ace2007

ulinbac wrote: »

You always Buy and higher Price and Sell at lower. In this case u can buy at 31.2 and sell at 31. This difference (cost) is called the spread.

You will also have transaction costs when buying and selling the share and stamp duty if 1% on the value amount purchased.

So for example if you bought €1000 of BOI today; taking into account the above you would already be down about 5%.

You need BOI to rise by over 5% to make a profit

Cheers for that, first thing I've read that actually make sense about the issue.

Commission/Transaction costs would have to be nearly 3.5% to be down 5% in the above example. In theory if one got commission free trades, be only down about 1.6% to start with?

I take it that a high spread = low trade volume/liquidity risk.

Amirani

Ace2007 wrote: »

I take it that a high spread = low trade volume/liquidity risk.

Generally yeah.

Warper

Shares well down today with the new rules regarding mortgages

ABC101

Markets have taken a beating over the last week, Ebola, Isis, French Economy (or lack of), German output data, price of oil down to $90.

One would like to think if the price of oil drops from 110 to 90 or less.. there would be a corresponding drop at the petrol pump?

ulinbac

Warper wrote: »

Shares well down today with the new rules regarding mortgages

Support seems to be around mid 28ish

ulinbac

Warper wrote: »

Shares well down today with the new rules regarding mortgages

Support seems to be around the mid 28ish

ABC101

I agree that the new mortgage lending rules by the CB will most probably have an negative impact on the SP in the short term. However on the longer term... it should ensure that there is less mortgage defaults in the future, which should in turn lead to a stronger banking sector.

Should being the optimum word!!

Johnny Jukebox

ABC101 wrote: »

Markets have taken a beating over the last week, Ebola, Isis, French Economy (or lack of), German output data, price of oil down to $90.

One would like to think if the price of oil drops from 110 to 90 or less.. there would be a corresponding drop at the petrol pump?

Apparently the drop in the dollar price of oil is more than offset by the weakening of the Euro against the dollar....

mug_holder

Warper wrote: »

Shares well down today with the new rules regarding mortgages

they will get a nice rise tomorrow , mark my words

shareboy

Hi there,

Boi shares at the current volume would have to rise to 40c approx to have the same mar cap price as 2007 heights. as the economy rises and the next bubble arrives will the share volume decrease? if so obviously the share price will go up. my question is, if I was to buy €10k at the current price of 29ish what would happen long term to the investment if they reduce the share volume.

thanks guys

shareboy

AlmightyCushion

It depends how they do it. If they do a share consolidation then you won't be affected. So if they announce a share consolidation scheme on a 1 for 2 basis then the amount of shares you hold would be halved but the value of each would double. You're still left with the same amount of value though. If you had €10,000 worth of shares before, you have €10,000 worth of shares afterwards.

A share buyback is different, that's where the company buys shares using its own money. This increases the value of each individual share without affecting the amount of shares you own (unless of course you are the one selling them) because you now own a larger percentage of the company than you did before. So, if you had €10,000 worth of shares and the company decides to buy back half of the company's shares then your percentage stake in the company would double and your shares would now be worth €20,000.

The above figures are pretty simplistic, in reality a share buyback or consolidation will be affected by how the market views it and whether it is considered positive or negative and this will affect the share price.

shareboy

Thanks almighty cushion for the info. Think I'll buy in after the stress test results.

quadrifoglio verde

shareboy wrote: »

Thanks almighty cushion for the info. Think I'll buy in after the stress test results.

If it was me I'd hedge my bets. Half now and half after the results. If the results are good they'll go up, if the results are bad, they won't fall by much (the results won't be bad)

shareboy

Also looking at eurobank. It's at the stage re price, recapitalisation etc as boi was when WR invested and guess what?? WR has invested in them again. Coincidence???

ABC101

So BoI passed de ECB stress test as a expected,,,, and while the SP did rise in early trading it was down on closing!

Sometimes I think we live in a upside down wold at times!

ABC101

So BoI passed de ECB stress test as a expected,,,, and while the SP did rise in early trading it was down on closing!

Sometimes I think we live in a upside down world at times!

Sonnenblumen

ABC101 wrote: »

So BoI passed de ECB stress test as a expected,,,, and while the SP did rise in early trading it was down on closing!

Sometimes I think we live in a upside down world at times!

You're thinking like a logician and IMO the markets are not always logical. IMO they (markets) are about making money (whatever means possible) and not about satisfying any expectation/pre-conceived logical outcome.

People are dying from hunger and some people die from lung cancer, check the SP's and explain why the SP for a co which produces a potentially life threatening product is larger, more valuable and more 'successful' than a company which produces commodity food like bread, cheese, milk etc?

Five years ago, the banks screwed their shareholders. Will they do it again? Most likely. When? No idea!

lucky john

The results of the tests were as expected so already factored into the price. Don't forget we were hovering around 24c not so long ago. The good news is the price is relatively stable post the results which means the markets are happy with what they see.

Short interm management statement due on Friday morning. I Only expect good news of progress on all fronts. I trust Richie won't let us down.

gamblor101

lucky john wrote: »

The results of the tests were as expected so already factored into the price. Don't forget we were hovering around 24c not so long ago. The good news is the price is relatively stable post the results which means the markets are happy with what they see.

Short interm management statement due on Friday morning. I Only expect good news of progress on all fronts. I trust Richie won't let us down.

So, is good news on Friday already factored into the current price as that is what the market expects?

lucky john

gamblor101 wrote: »

So, is good news on Friday already factored into the current price as that is what the market expects?

I haven't seen any comment on what the market expects on Friday. I'd be interested to see what they are saying if you could link it though. Boi don't issue Q3 results and the statement on Friday is likely to be short and with few hard figures. What I would expect is a comment about capital levels relating to passing the stress tests, further progress on NIM, declining arrears and possibly a guidance that profits will meet expectations. They have plenty of scope to write back some of the funds set aside for property losses but I'd be surprised they would go into detail on that untill next March.
All this would be positive and cement the share price rather than drive it. On the other hand anything less would have a disproportionately negative effect.

Amirani

Strobg rumours that Moody's will upgrade BOI one notch to investment grade. Would be quite significant.

lucky john

Diego Simeone wrote: »

Strobg rumours that Moody's will upgrade BOI one notch to investment grade. Would be quite significant.

Any time on that diego?

lucky john

https://m.moodys.com/mt/www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-upgrades-Bank-of-Irelands-debt-and-deposit-ratings--PR_312884?WT.mc_id=AM%7eRmluYW56ZW4ubmV0X1JTQl9SYXRpbmdzX05ld3NfTm9fVHJhbnNsYXRpb25z%7e20141118_PR_312884&un_jtt_redirect

D'Agger

Diego Simeone wrote: »

Strobg rumours that Moody's will upgrade BOI one notch to investment grade. Would be quite significant.

What outcome would it have long term & short term on the SP do you think?

Just so as I can understand a little bit better

ABC101

D'Agger wrote: »

What outcome would it have long term & short term on the SP do you think?

Just so as I can understand a little bit better

Well... I think it will add to the improving market sentiment towards BoI.... which should nudge the SP up .... but by how much etc?

Personally I am hoping BoI start share buybacks in 2015 rather than a dividend.... 32 billion odd shares floating around is too much IMO.

Dividends are just too highly taxed in Ireland... 41% is steep.

lucky john

ABC101 wrote: »

Well... I think it will add to the improving market sentiment towards BoI.... which should nudge the SP up .... but by how much etc?

Personally I am hoping BoI start share buybacks in 2015 rather than a dividend.... 32 billion odd shares floating around is too much IMO.

Dividends are just too highly taxed in Ireland... 41% is steep.

Don't worry about a dividend in 2015, there's no chance of that. Excluding noonan selling his shares the next big event will be the redemption of 1.3 billion preference shares. This will take place in early 2016. There will be no dividend before that and its also very unlikely there will be any buyback of shares.

Larry Wildman

ABC101 wrote: »

Well... I think it will add to the improving market sentiment towards BoI.... which should nudge the SP up .... but by how much etc?

Personally I am hoping BoI start share buybacks in 2015 rather than a dividend.... 32 billion odd shares floating around is too much IMO.

Dividends are just too highly taxed in Ireland... 41% is steep.

52% or even 55% if PRSI and USC are factored in...

Seamus1964

Going slowly up again...nice

lucky john

The jump yesterday may have been thanks to this..

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/bank-of-ireland-a-key-buy-says-us-investment-bank-1.2014260

ABC101

@ 33.1 c today.... slowly nudging up a touch.... long may it continue!! We have not been at this level for a good few months now.

Any bets on what we could be looking at for Christmas?? 34 / 35 c a share?