BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

Farmer Pudsey

ABC101 wrote: »

@ 33.1 c today.... slowly nudging up a touch.... long may it continue!! We have not been at this level for a good few months now.

Any bets on what we could be looking at for Christmas?? 34 / 35 c a share?

Not too sure if it will climb. AIB will keep pressure on price. Also government will be offloading there 15% soon as well this will prevent any substancial gain over next few months.

lucky john

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Not too sure if it will climb. AIB will keep pressure on price. Also government will be offloading there 15% soon as well this will prevent any substancial gain over next few months.

I disagree. I think its more likely we are heading for 40c now. The government selling will be a positive and not a negative and there are plenty of other factors in boi's favour as well.

Seamus1964

+1 to Lucky John post

Cute Hoor

lucky john wrote: »

I disagree. I think its more likely we are heading for 40c now. The government selling will be a positive and not a negative and there are plenty of other factors in boi's favour as well.

Michael Noonan has said that he has no intention of selling the Government's 14% stake, says it gives him an opportunity to influence policy in the bank. Not sure whether to believe him or not or what impact it will have on BOI sp.

Also said that he had an American investor in with him on Wednesday morning who wanted to take AIB off his hands, I suspect the American investor wouldn't be paying anything like 8c per share, not clear if Noonan showed him the door or not.

Farmer Pudsey

lucky john wrote: »

I disagree. I think its more likely we are heading for 40c now. The government selling will be a positive and not a negative and there are plenty of other factors in boi's favour as well.

Yes the Government selling will be positive however a 15% overhang that can come on sale at any stage will depress price. 40C/share would be a substancial price for BOI shares.

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Michael Noonan has said that he has no intention of selling the Government's 14% stake, says it gives him an opportunity to influence policy in the bank. Not sure whether to believe him or not or what impact it will have on BOI sp.

Also said that he had an American investor in with him on Wednesday morning who wanted to take AIB off his hands, I suspect the American investor wouldn't be paying anything like 8c per share, not clear if Noonan showed him the door or not.

14% gives little influence. When AIB is sold it price will be somewhere between 1-2c/share.

ABC101

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Michael Noonan has said that he has no intention of selling the Government's 14% stake, says it gives him an opportunity to influence policy in the bank. Not sure whether to believe him or not or what impact it will have on BOI sp.

Also said that he had an American investor in with him on Wednesday morning who wanted to take AIB off his hands, I suspect the American investor wouldn't be paying anything like 8c per share, not clear if Noonan showed him the door or not.

Hahahahaaa.... reminds me of Wilbur Ross... who after selling his first batch of shares in BoI said he had no intention of selling the reminder.

Which of course was exactly what he did a few months later!!! Remember.... hahahahahahahahah:D

In business if somebody says they have no intention of doing something... it means exactly the opposite!!:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

As for Noonan selling his remainder in BoI... I would only be guessing,,, however if Govt finances get tight again... he may be tempted to offload 10% at 35cent... who knows??

AIB is going to be interesting... if I had spare cash... I would be interested in buying at 1.5c or so. Trouble is AIB is turning the corner... and the Govt (quite rightly) wants to get the 20 odd billion back for the people. It may be European union rules which force the state to sell off AIB. Not sure... but it is possible.

It would be strange... that of the two main banks in Ireland... the state owns 14% in one and 99% of the other. That is the reality... but it does not look right to external investors.

lucky john

Aib at 1.5c or even 2c would be very tempting for sure. One of the big draw backs is the €21 billion or so it says they will return to the state. If the 99% of the bank is sold for 10billion well that means the €11 billion can really only come from profits. That could easily mean 10 years of no retained earning to grow the business and a minimum dividend, if one at all. It turns it into a very long term investment and all the time boi is flying ahead. On balance it's hard not to see boi as a better place for investment, even at 33c.

euroboom13

Boi have a hurdle to jumps at 33 because Noonan has said that he will not gamble tax payers money by holding ,after money back price is reached.He has already passed this price once this year ,without cashing in, and I doubt he will miss the opportunity this time.

Same with allied Irish ,it would be very unusual for a political leader to get any major premium on their emergency investment.

So watch the cash back targets ,they are the only hurdles left.

lucky john

euroboom13 wrote: »

Boi have a hurdle to jumps at 33 because Noonan has said that he will not gamble tax payers money by holding ,after money back price is reached.He has already passed this price once this year ,without cashing in, and I doubt he will miss the opportunity this time.

Same with allied Irish ,it would be very unusual for a political leader to get any major premium on their emergency investment.

So watch the cash back targets ,they are the only hurdles left.

He already has his money plus a bit back from boi. The shares he holds are all pure profit. However, as far as I remember 31c is the breakeven on the 14% investment. There is nothing stopping him selling out tomorrow and to be honest I hope he does. It's the last piece of the normalization process.

braddun

Like a lot of banks, Bank of Ireland doesn’t have any earnings


http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/is-bank-of-ireland-fairly-valued-at-its-current-share-price-1.1827026

lucky john

braddun wrote: »

Like a lot of banks, Bank of Ireland doesn’t have any earnings


http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/is-bank-of-ireland-fairly-valued-at-its-current-share-price-1.1827026

that's completely out of date. Boi will post around 1 billion euro profit for FY14.

ABC101

braddun wrote: »

Like a lot of banks, Bank of Ireland doesn’t have any earnings


http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/is-bank-of-ireland-fairly-valued-at-its-current-share-price-1.1827026

I remember reading that article some months ago... and I thought it was a bit wishy washy.... basically writing in very general terms about how to value a bank.... at the end of the second page.... there was a quotation from Davy about BoI... which again was rather vague.

I think Moodys recently released a statement saying BoI is now considered "Investment Grade", upgraded from a lower rating to a higher rating. Last week I think.

If you read the article by Mr Murray in the SBP a few months ago... he publicly stated that he is buying BoI because he thinks it is good value in the long term. He should have got in in late June 2012 when it was 7 cent.

Put a hundred people in a room and ask them what colour the floor is and you could get a hundred different answers!!!

Doctors differ Patients die and all that !!:pac:

But there are too many shares in circulation... and I would like to see BoI share buybacks... however some posters on here do not believe that will be coming any time soon!! Just have to wait.... but here's hoping!!

But property has gone up in Dublin since the IT article was written.... possibly by 8%... which again improves the banks position.

Good Luck to All!!

Farmer Pudsey

lucky john wrote: »

Aib at 1.5c or even 2c would be very tempting for sure. One of the big draw backs is the €21 billion or so it says they will return to the state. If the 99% of the bank is sold for 10billion well that means the €11 billion can really only come from profits. That could easily mean 10 years of no retained earning to grow the business and a minimum dividend, if one at all. It turns it into a very long term investment and all the time boi is flying ahead. On balance it's hard not to see boi as a better place for investment, even at 33c.

If AIB is the same overall value as BOI at 1.5c/share it is value at 2c/share it is over value compared to present share price. when dealing in penny share fraction of fractions make a huge difference. However before the government there will be a share amaglation. The government owns 99% of it it did not take over existing shares rather it made new shares. Because of this there are 10 time the share in existance that were there 10 years ago.

The government took over AIB virtually. All the 21 billion it pumped will not be recovered if it sells at present. I imagine that it will first sell part to an investor and then offload the rest of the stake over a few years throug a myrid of means. If it sells AIB for 10 billion over 2 years it will have to write off the other 11 billion.

Those that invest in AIB will not invest if it was also lumbered with the remaining 11 billion.

ABC101 wrote: »

I remember reading that article some months ago... and I thought it was a bit wishy washy.... basically writing in very general terms about how to value a bank.... at the end of the second page.... there was a quotation from Davy about BoI... which again was rather vague.

I think Moodys recently released a statement saying BoI is now considered "Investment Grade", upgraded from a lower rating to a higher rating. Last week I think.

If you read the article by Mr Murray in the SBP a few months ago... he publicly stated that he is buying BoI because he thinks it is good value in the long term. He should have got in in late June 2012 when it was 7 cent.

Put a hundred people in a room and ask them what colour the floor is and you could get a hundred different answers!!!

Doctors differ Patients die and all that !!:pac:

But there are too many shares in circulation... and I would like to see BoI share buybacks... however some posters on here do not believe that will be coming any time soon!! Just have to wait.... but here's hoping!!

But property has gone up in Dublin since the IT article was written.... possibly by 8%... which again improves the banks position.

Good Luck to All!!

I be surprised if BOI did a share buy back. It is unfeasible. However I think at some stage in the future it may do a share amalgation.

lucky john

Just to put figures on what the increase in property prices means to boi. At this moment in time they have put by enough reserves to cover peak to trough property falls of 55%. Based on the present HPI (house price index) that fall is now around 40%, giving the bank a 15% cushion. Each 1% is worth 40 million euro. So boi have €600 million in reserve they can write back straight to their bottom line if the wish.

Naturally they won't do that straight away. The central bank have already tut tutted that idea. Most likely they will do it over the next number of years. €200 million would be a nice round to start with for 2014.

smurfjed

Strangely enough AIB is on the way back up, now passing 8c....

Dickie10

so what would people imagine the share price could be in say 5 years after good house prices and healthy economy? roughly? 1 euro?

ABC101

Dickie10 wrote: »

so what would people imagine the share price could be in say 5 years after good house prices and healthy economy? roughly? 1 euro?

Hard to say... I would like share buybacks... however others on here seem to be of the opinion that this is very unlikely... algamation of shares would be more realistic.

32 billion shares .... just too many..... yep the SP could go to 1 euro... but the shares would have to be down to 11 billion outstanding at current rates.

In effect it would be running ... but standing still.

If the Govt could be tempted to offload their stake... after all they have gotten their money back from BoI... then that could nudge the SP up a touch more. I think unemployment is going to help a lot more... or should I say reducing unemployment... as people start reducing debt and paying down loans, moving from the red into the black!

Seamus1964

IMHO amalgamation of shares would be very realistic indeed.

ABC101

From the events yesterday... it would appear the talk of Mr Mario Dragi opening up the printing presses is going to have an effect on the SP of banks.

However it would appear the ECB is still undecided as to when exactly to bite the bullet. Mario keeps saying next month,.... next month... reassess over the next 4 weeks and then make a decision next month.

Might explain the dip yesterday. However just as Mario was able to calm the markets 2 1/2 years ago... June / July 2012... by effectively talking the talk.. he has not been exactly able to walk the walk.

But at the time... talking the talk was enough for the markets not to panic on euro stability.

How long will talking the talk last, before the markets get jittery again and action has to be taken?

So IMO... WRT BoI... the SP will be effected more by the actions (if any) of the ECB next year.... then in the longer term.... SP could be effected by the Irish Govt selling more of their stake in BoI.

Looking foward.. 2015 could be a significant year for BoI share price.

1) Actions of the ECB providing a lift to financial stocks in general inclucing BoI.
2) Irish Govt reducing their stake (possible but no guarantee).
3) Positive encouraging financial results of BoI for full year 2014, (2nd quater 2015?)

Thoughts anybody?

lucky john

ABC101 wrote: »

Looking foward.. 2015 could be a significant year for BoI share price.

1) Actions of the ECB providing a lift to financial stocks in general inclucing BoI.
2) Irish Govt reducing their stake (possible but no guarantee).
3) Positive encouraging financial results of BoI for full year 2014, (2nd quater 2015?)

Thoughts anybody?

1. The next meeting of the ecb will on January 22nd. By then Draghi will know two important things. A. Is his present bond buying and ltro programme working. B... is what he is doing or going to do legal. Not sure about B but there's a very good chance the answer to A is no. If the legal stuff goes his way then odds on Draghi will open the flood gates and let the freshly printed cash flow at that January meeting. Definitely a + for boi..

2.. noonan could easily sell between today and mid January. The price is now right. Short lived drop if he sell all in one go but a major positive in the medium term.

3. 1 billion plus profit will be announced at FY14 result at the beginning of March 15. That 2 years ahead of expectations. Forward guidance on the day will be positive. My feeling though is by then the share price will have caught up with the positive news.

Dickie10

share price yesterday was 0.33 cent, are u suggesting that for the next few weeks SP will nudge up more? I am a lowly farmer and not down with economics at all so sorry if i come across as uncouth in the jargon. i bought 21500 shares in april 2013 at 0.15 cent. could the price go as far as 0.40 cent before january 22nd?

McKrab

Dickie10 wrote: »

share price yesterday was 0.33 cent, are u suggesting that for the next few weeks SP will nudge up more? I am a lowly farmer and not down with economics at all so sorry if i come across as uncouth in the jargon. i bought 21500 shares in april 2013 at 0.15 cent. could the price go as far as 0.40 cent before january 22nd?

It's unlikely they'll go up that fast so soon. Maybe in spring of next year after the QE program has gotten into full swing.

ABC101

I doubt if they would hit 40c by 22 January... which is only 6 weeks away really. Maybe by April / May? I think BoI requires more positive news to drive it up.

caoty

It is possible to reach 40 cents before the end of Jan.

ABC101

caoty wrote: »

It is possible to reach 40 cents before the end of Jan.

Well... anything is possible... there is always market psychology at work as well as fundamentals.

BoI did reach 39c a few months back... so it is possible again.

However this year in early January... it was like a wall of money came flooding into the market... stocks went up a lot. Permanent TSB was around 4 c... then it was up to 8... and then 13 I think..... astounded I was!!

ABC101

BoI.... just nudging past 35c before noon.... 35.1c to be precise....

Could we really see 40c before Christmas?????? I might just have to eat my words posted previously!!:pac:

Seamus1964

FTSE is down....so yes, could be possible
Most likely temporarily jump but possible

caoty

IMO, 40 cents before any major correction.

ABC101 wrote: »

BoI.... just nudging past 35c before noon.... 35.1c to be precise....

Could we really see 40c before Christmas?????? I might just have to eat my words posted previously!!:pac:

Ace2007

caoty wrote: »

IMO, 40 cents before any major correction.

What do you think will happen at 40 cent?

ABC101

Ace2007 wrote: »

What do you think will happen at 40 cent?

A big sell off!!:pac: