BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

Thronegames

ranger4 wrote: »

SP has now broke through 0.31c resistance i expect sp to be back testing next resistance at 0.35c by next friday on run upto FYR next friday as long as greece situation doesnt backfire.

do you now? and why would that be?:)

Seamus1964

Price seems to be relatively stable now even all this euro-problems going around (feckin Greeks), innit ?

ranger4

0.35c resistance broke through and with QE finally taken place euro based assets including fkir offer appeal to investors/traders in a v low interest rate enviroment.

Chancer3001

A company that's made almost a billion profit this year will go onwards and upwards

Ace2007

Chancer3001 wrote: »

A company that's made almost a billion profit this year will go onwards and upwards

onwards and upwards to what though - are you talking 0.5 by end of summer or before?

I havne't really looking into boi that much over the last few months, but always had the intention of jumping in between .25 and .29 - but seems that we may not go there now.

Farmer Pudsey

Ace2007 wrote: »

onwards and upwards to what though - are you talking 0.5 by end of summer or before?

I havne't really looking into boi that much over the last few months, but always had the intention of jumping in between .25 and .29 - but seems that we may not go there now.

That buying opportunity was there in early February. I do not think 50c share is a realistic target. I think BOI is valued at 11 billion at 34c/share approx or 11 times earnings. 50c/share is over 16 times earnings, not unrealistic but it profits are dependent on poor competition and a benevolent regulator at present. You also have a 15% shareholding overhang that the government may well sell at some stage this year.

ABC101

Evening chaps...

Yes BoI seems to have finally broken through the 35c threshold stage (not seen since last year), I have been pleasantly surprised this week.

I think there are a number of factors, firstly Bouchers intention to redeem the preference shares, I think 1.3 billion worth. This will definitely assist the normal SP as they are mopped up over the next while.

I am against dividends, although a blue chip paying dividend is always attractive to international investors and also aids SP stability.

But with dividends taxed at 41%, it is not really worth it. I would prefer share buy backs, CGT being taxed at 33%.

32.3 billion shares are just too many, if these were to be slowly whittled down by .3 billion / year (105 million euro / year) then we would see our SP steadily rise even more.

Other factors are BoI UK operations and how they get on / progress / expand, and WRT Ireland is how the repossessions of property kicks off during 2015.

I think that repossessions.... if not handled properly could blow up badly in Boucher's face.

I initially said I would expect / hope to see 40c by year end, this could be sooner as we have pushed over 36c. But at 40c I expect to see profit taking which will surpress the SP a touch .... perhaps back down into the mid 30's again.

Other issues is Greece, which is still monkeying around. Dragi and his printing press which should boost the SP (certainly did in the US). Longer term... the possibility of a Irish socialist Govt in 2016 could see investors / multinationals going for the door.

I know of 3 doctors who have left Ireland in the last 12 months. Crippling income taxes and appalling mismanagement of the health sector being the two chief reasons. This is a warning sign... because if other professionals start jumping ship.... then Ireland will become a less desirable place to live for the rest of us.

If you think a 41% tax on dividends is high, I dread to see what the tax will be when the socialists start dictating policy in 2016, better for Boucher to forego dividends and concentrate on buybacks.

However if these fears are to prove unfounded, Ace2007, if you have money to spend I would not hesitate to buy into BoI, even at 36c now. I think the stock will do steady progress over the next 10 years.

There is a pile of money to be made in property by the banks, as there is a huge demand for housing in Ireland now. Problem is income taxation is crippling the population. So even if there are lots of buyers and sellers of property, people may still not be able to buy.

I wonder how our old friend Wilbur Ross is feeling now? Not so good I bet:eek:

Sonnenblumen

I agree, better to reduce number of shares, and buybacks would be more beneficial (eventually) to shareholders and also more tax efficient than alternatives.

Why would anyone be concerned about the Govt's shareholding, at just under 15% where's the big threat or overhang?

Wilbur made his money and wise enough to know he cannot always win all the time, but yes, I'd say he's not happy with his timings?

ABC101

Very interesting piece here on the FT website.....the Dragi effect

March 13, 2015 7:09 pm
Investors pile into eurozone shares
Joel Lewin, London

Just type "Investors pile into eurozone shares" on Google and you're in.

Back to BOI, one curved ball could be the UK general election, if the UK votes to leave Europe then this could have negative consequences to BOI expansion plans there. UK has had some QE, and could be looking at raising interest rates over the next 12 to 18 months. Higher rates would lower property prices there.

But BOI breaking through 37c!!!! I'm just amazed!! 40c could be only a few days away yet!

lucky john

ABC101 wrote: »

Very interesting piece here on the FT website.....the Dragi effect

March 13, 2015 7:09 pm
Investors pile into eurozone shares
Joel Lewin, London

Just type "Investors pile into eurozone shares" on Google and you're in.

Back to BOI, one curved ball could be the UK general election, if the UK votes to leave Europe then this could have negative consequences to BOI expansion plans there. UK has had some QE, and could be looking at raising interest rates over the next 12 to 18 months. Higher rates would lower property prices there."


Boucher addressed the issue of a Britxit at results time. He said the Post Office partnership in the uk is set up as part of Bank Of Ireland Uk and as such is run as a seperate business. He foresees no real issue if the Uk does exit the EU. That's purely from a business point of view and not a share price consideration though.

For now, our Greek friends and their problems are the biggest risk to the share price. Having said that "surprise" is what really spooks markets and I don't think anything the greeks do is going to surprise us at this stage.

Regarding preference shares and dividends. The preference shares will be redeemed in the first half of 2016. The bank can't do it before January 1st and have confirmed they will not use them as Tier1 capital after July. They can't pay a dividends until after the shares have been redeemed so most likely the second half of 2016 or early 2017. Press reports say the end of 2016 based on 20% of 2015 profits. If that turns out to be true than the dividend would be around half a cent per share.

Pref share redemption followed by a dividend is the stated intention of bank management. While not impossible its very unlikely they will have a buy back or any other event until after both these intentions have been completed.

Farmer Pudsey

Too many lads get caught up in buy backs and Dividends. To most big institutional/investment shareholders dividends are at a lower tax rate than share value. Small share holder is becoming too fixated in capital appreciation as it is a lower tax rate. However dividends are more important to a pensioner.

Too many I think cannot understand underlying value. All good investors will tell you that companies that buy back shares you should tread carefully with.

ABC101

Talking of consolidations...Article in today's IT, PTSB going for a 100 to 1 share consolidation to get out of the penny stock range. 8th April annual meeting for shareholders.

lucky john

ABC101 wrote: »

Talking of consolidations...Article in today's IT, PTSB going for a 100 to 1 share consolidation to get out of the penny stock range. 8th April annual meeting for shareholders.

Its something boi should consider. Over 32 billion shares is too many. Even a 1 for 10 would get you out of penny stock territory. It would definitely even out some of the volatility as well..

Farmer Pudsey

ABC101 wrote: »

Talking of consolidations...Article in today's IT, PTSB going for a 100 to 1 share consolidation to get out of the penny stock range. 8th April annual meeting for shareholders.

lucky john wrote: »

Its something boi should consider. Over 32 billion shares is too many. Even a 1 for 10 would get you out of penny stock territory. It would definitely even out some of the volatility as well..

Volatility is good

lucky john

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Volatility is good

Only for traders. Not for investors. Too many opportunities to dump for a quick profit, undermining the stock.

Farmer Pudsey

lucky john wrote: »

Only for traders. Not for investors. Too many opportunities to dump for a quick profit, undermining the stock.

All traders are investors and all investors are traders.

lucky john

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

All traders are investors and all investors are traders.

No. I buy shares with a long term plan to hold. I " invest" in a company's future as do many others. A trader buys with a very shrot term view and will happily buy and sell the same company multiple times. Volatility suits them just fine.

Farmer Pudsey

lucky john wrote: »

No. I buy shares with a long term plan to hold. I " invest" in a company's future as do many others. A trader buys with a very shrot term view and will happily buy and sell the same company multiple times. Volatility suits them just fine.

I invest to to get the best return for my money If that is short term or longtern it matters little. All investors take different paths but at the end of the day it the profit that counts.

It is never wrong to take a profit.........or for that matter a loss to limit your losses. Abd yes I will buy and sell the same share. However I have BOI longterm and have closed a short term position on Friday.

I have a saying sentiment and farming are poor bedfellow.
It is the same with investing

quadrifoglio verde

lucky john wrote: »

No. I buy shares with a long term plan to hold. I " invest" in a company's future as do many others. A trader buys with a very shrot term view and will happily buy and sell the same company multiple times. Volatility suits them just fine.

I buy shares with the long term plan to hold, but when something tells me to sell, (if I feel they're overvalued, or a trend calc. Shows a downward change) then I sell.
Buying and holding means that you get all the ups and all the downs. I want as much as the ups and as little as the downs as possible.

Sonnenblumen

ABC101 wrote: »

Talking of consolidations...Article in today's IT, PTSB going for a 100 to 1 share consolidation to get out of the penny stock range. 8th April annual meeting for shareholders.

Off topic but who in their right mind would buy shares in ptsb? Hoping to raise € 525mio and use € 400 mio to reduce € 2.4 Billion owed to Exchequer. Anglo had balls and brains but ran out of time, ptsb has neither.

ABC101

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

Off topic but who in their right mind would buy shares in ptsb? Hoping to raise € 525mio and use € 400 mio to reduce € 2.4 Billion owed to Exchequer. Anglo had balls and brains but ran out of time, ptsb has neither.

Well there is the fundamentals of a particular stock and then there is the market psychology of a stock.

For example January 2014 PTSB was about 4.5 cent. By mid January it was over 10 cent. I think it even went up to 11.5 cent, could have been even more, can't remember.

I'm out of PTSB a while now, so I'm not following it at all. However I will say despite all the impossible bad news about PTSB...... it is still around...it is still trying to do business, it still has branches around the country etc etc.

I think when the dust has settled, PTSB could get itself sorted out and get on the road to profitability. There could be a good entry point in the next 12 months and holding it for 10 years etc?

Seamus1964

I'll buy if Wilbur buys

Farmer Pudsey

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

Off topic but who in their right mind would buy shares in ptsb? Hoping to raise € 525mio and use € 400 mio to reduce € 2.4 Billion owed to Exchequer. Anglo had balls and brains but ran out of time, ptsb has neither.

ABC101 wrote: »

Well there is the fundamentals of a particular stock and then there is the market psychology of a stock.

For example January 2014 PTSB was about 4.5 cent. By mid January it was over 10 cent. I think it even went up to 11.5 cent, could have been even more, can't remember.

I'm out of PTSB a while now, so I'm not following it at all. However I will say despite all the impossible bad news about PTSB...... it is still around...it is still trying to do business, it still has branches around the country etc etc.

I think when the dust has settled, PTSB could get itself sorted out and get on the road to profitability. There could be a good entry point in the next 12 months and holding it for 10 years etc?

Last year it went to nearly 14c/share I exited at 13.5c/share on the way up. It fundamentals are not too bad at present it is valued at 2.2 billion. I think it is a tad undervalued and entered at 6c/share a few weeks ago.

Ignore what it owes the government as that is now a share holding. Really interesting thing is 400 million of the government is in preference shares that PTSB intends to redeem. If they do it will reduce the government share holding significently but government will still have over 50% of bank. Do not think it will fall below 6c/share again if it happens may well increase my investment.

I would consider it a medium term take over possibility. With QE more than likely its trackers are now profitable.

Do not look at shareprice look at overall value of company.

ABC101

Seamus1964 wrote: »

I'll buy if Wilbur buys

Wilbur could have lost all his BOI gains in Eurobank ergais.

I went into Eurobank as well.... And I'm down a whopping 75%.......ouch!

But I only lost a few hundred.... But Wilbur is down .....I'd say several hundred million.

Wilbur is also down again on the exchange rate, by putting USD into BOI, making a killing (I think over 300 million) and instead of returning into dollars when the Euro was worth 1.36 dollars he went into Eurobank Ergais. Not only is Eurobank down 75%, but the Euro is only worth 1.04USD. The euro will drop below dollar parity in the next few weeks, how far it will go.... I don't know, but 0.85 would not surprise me by year end.

It's a massive white knuckle ride there, it Greece sorts itself out it might all come back...but on the other hand?

Alternatively, there was a article on the FT the other day, and it mentioned that as the U.S. is raising rates and Europe is starting QE, all the money is pouring out of the U.S. and UK and into Europe, FTSE and nYSe! s&p are at all time highs, but Europe is only starting to take off.

I think the U.S. and UK will not raise rates much ...they will hold off until....until euro QE is over, then this out of synchronisation of currencies will end.... The currencies be more in phase, so UK USA and Europe will slowly raise rates together in unison, stocks will then drop a touch as money goes back into deposits.

Who knows? Always uncertain.. The future is.

lucky john

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I invest to to get the best return for my money If that is short term or longtern it matters little. All investors take different paths but at the end of the day it the profit that counts.

It is never wrong to take a profit.........or for that matter a loss to limit your losses. Abd yes I will buy and sell the same share. However I have BOI longterm and have closed a short term position on Friday.

I have a saying sentiment and farming are poor bedfellow.
It is the same with investing

as a farmer you buy and sell your stock to turn a euro all the time. Are you a farmer or a cattle dealer? Investors v trader is along the same lines.

Sonnenblumen

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Last year it went to nearly 14c/share I exited at 13.5c/share on the way up. It fundamentals are not too bad at present it is valued at 2.2 billion. I think it is a tad undervalued and entered at 6c/share a few weeks ago.

Ignore what it owes the government as that is now a share holding. Really interesting thing is 400 million of the government is in preference shares that PTSB intends to redeem. If they do it will reduce the government share holding significently but government will still have over 50% of bank. Do not think it will fall below 6c/share again if it happens may well increase my investment.

I would consider it a medium term take over possibility. With QE more than likely its trackers are now profitable.

Do not look at shareprice look at overall value of company.

How can one ignore the Gov ownership, it owes virtually all the stock? Notwithstanding that obvious fact, the Gov as you correctly say also has a significant chunk of Pref Shares. The ptsb is a miserable failed banking entity and IMO, it is only a matter of time when it's loan book is sold. I know the Gov wants a 3rd Bank but I doubt it is going to be ptsb, more likely a foreign bank. Anyways, madness to be investing in any failed entity not least a failed bank.

Farmer Pudsey

lucky john wrote: »

as a farmer you buy and sell your stock to turn a euro all the time. Are you a farmer or a cattle dealer? Investors v trader is along the same lines.

All cattle dealers are farmers as they must have a herd No.

Farmer Pudsey

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

How can one ignore the Gov ownership, it owes virtually all the stock? Notwithstanding that obvious fact, the Gov as you correctly say also has a significant chunk of Pref Shares. The ptsb is a miserable failed banking entity and IMO, it is only a matter of time when it's loan book is sold. I know the Gov wants a 3rd Bank but I doubt it is going to be ptsb, more likely a foreign bank. Anyways, madness to be investing in any failed entity not least a failed bank.

You ignore it as the government is a shareholder and like some other shareholders they have paid more for there shares than those share are worth at present. PTSB is different to AIB in that at present technically the government share of AIB (using shareprice) is worth more than the government is owed. It owes 99% of both banks. Yet is AIB a basket case?

Yes PTSB still has issue but looking at underlying value the upside could be quite interesting. Would I buy AIB share no. If I could sell them via CFD I would. Would I seel PTSB by CFD no I would not.

Ace2007

lucky john wrote: »

No. I buy shares with a long term plan to hold. I " invest" in a company's future as do many others. A trader buys with a very shrot term view and will happily buy and sell the same company multiple times. Volatility suits them just fine.

Everyone has a different strategy, if you bought shares in a company with the idea of holding for 10 years, and the company share price increase by a multiple of 10 in the first 6 months, are you telling me that your still going to hold, instead of taking profit?

Some buy with the intention of selling if they make 2x their capital be it 6 months or 6 years, but that doesn't mean they aren't investors.

lucky john

Ace2007 wrote: »

Everyone has a different strategy, if you bought shares in a company with the idea of holding for 10 years, and the company share price increase by a multiple of 10 in the first 6 months, are you telling me that your still going to hold, instead of taking profit?.

Ace, I'm telling you that if I ever find a company like that I won't be posting here. I'll be enjoying my early retirement in the Bahamas and still holding for the multiple of 20 for the year.