Thunderstorms and Convective Potential (Dublin Floods 9/8/08)

StratoQ

Gerry Murphy is correct about the 76.2mm. (which fell between 0-24 UTC)

Cant be certain what the news report was referring to. It may have been referring to the 56mm which fell between 18Z Fri and 18Z Sat. So different 24 hour time period.

Mothman

Not an overall daily record at Dublin AP.
c80mm fell on 11th June 1993. 00-24h
82.3mm 09z-09z period (11/12th June)

109mm at Casement on same day.

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote: »

Final total was 56.6mm
Dub Ap had 56mm and
Hurricane Charlie had 60mm in Aug 1986

DOCARCH wrote: »

A little bit of confusion out there?

Met E website, and Gerry Murphy on the radio this morning on the 7.55 forecast, confimred that 76.2mm of rain fell yesterday (24 hour period) at Dublin Airport surpassing the Hurricane Charlie record set in 1986.

Straight after Met E forecast, 8.00 news reporting a total of 54.0mm fell in the 24 hour period at Dublin Airport.

For the record, I recorded 34.8mm.

StratoQ wrote: »

Gerry Murphy is correct about the 76.2mm. (which fell between 0-24 UTC)

Cant be certain what the news report was referring to. It may have been referring to the 56mm which fell between 18Z Fri and 18Z Sat. So different 24 hour time period.

This is a case of WTF are they talking about now. Jean Byrne on forecasting last night said and using graphics used on the TV that 56mm or rain fell in the 24hr peroid and not between a certain time. Also she said the Hurricane Charlie record laid intact at 60mm.
Now am i the only one who viewed the weather last evening 2350 who saw that and it is where i got my info from.

Now this

Met Éireann has said that in the 24-hour period from midnight Friday until midnight on Saturday 76.2mm of rain was recorded at Dublin Airport.
This is a new record for the month of August.
The previous record was 73mm which was recorded in August 1986.

Well thats not what she said, can anyone get an archive of the 2350 weather with Jean Byrne on rte archive??

76.2mm it does make sense as the white blobs on radar where just NW of me most of the time giving the deluge.

I presume one figure is the "official" 9am to 9am 24 hr period and the other is the one more people will understand ie the midnight to midnight on the same day 24hr period.

They said it is an august record and more rain than fell during hurricane charlie.

LEIN

That was some exciting weather over Dublin yesterday.
I live down the road and not a drop of rain fell here.
I could see the cell developing as it was heading for Dublin.
My Internet connection went bogey last night so I'm only seeing all the posts now.
Why does all the good weather miss my location!

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote: »

This is a case of WTF are they talking about now. Jean Byrne on forecasting last night said and using graphics used on the TV that 56mm or rain fell in the 24hr peroid and not between a certain time. Also she said the Hurricane Charlie record laid intact at 60mm.
Now am i the only one who viewed the weather last evening 2350 who saw that and it is where i got my info from.

I was always under the impression that the near midnight forecasts on RTÉ were recorded and could have been recorded not long after the 9pm forecasts.I am of this impression from the number of times over the years that I have seen it start and restart.
I did not see that one.

Snowbie

Deleted User wrote: »

I presume one figure is the "official" 9am to 9am 24 hr period and the other is the one more people will understand ie the midnight to midnight on the same day 24hr period.

They said it is an august record and more rain than fell during hurricane charlie.

So the 76.2mm fell during the Ts and did not include the frontal rain yesterday morning. Or did an additional 20mm of rain fall overnight after her (Jean) forecast to the peroid to 09z this morning??

kerry1960

Yes , that was some downpour in dublin alright , an interesting day in croker , and a very interesting ' run for the car ' afterwards:eek:.

Arrived back home 12.40 am and still wet:mad: .

Daughter reported lot of high level lightning/thunder and downpour in north kerry 3-4 pm ,but nothing compared to what happened in dublin

teetotaller

yesterday late evening it took me 2,5 hours on m50 to get from n4 exit to Blanchardstown exit.

People were driving on emergency line , ambulance driver had huge problems to get through.....
Why people are blocking emergency line ?



Today morning 6.30 am I tried to get from Clonee to Clondalkin - Lucan road flooded, Leixlip road flooded, had to go back onto m50 and n4

N3 looks like a nightmare - one huge river with small islands ( left cars) in the middle. all drivers going above n3 on the ( bridge with road from B.SC to National Aquatic Centre were stoping cars and taking photos of N3 river

Snowbie

Deleted User wrote: »

I was always under the impression that the near midnight forecasts on RTÉ were recorded and could have been recorded not long after the 9pm forecasts.I am of this impression from the number of times over the years that I have seen it start and restart.
I did not see that one.

I did not get to see the 9 weather myself just the late night one and would make sense that the extra 20mm fell from that at that time due to the second storm moving through at around 2100 and that time it just side swiped me here with only 6 additional mm falling from a short sharp downpour.
I think that it was premature of the MET releasing stats, dont they look at the radar.:pac:

If the archive of the 9 news weather is out i will compare to the late night one and see if there was a difference.

Edit: BB you were right it is recorded. Just premature from them releasing the comparison to hurricane Charlie. So another 20mm fell from the second storm that moved through at 2100.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0809/9news_av.html?2408529,null,230

Mothman

I'll try clear up some of the confusion though StratoQ has pretty much spelt it out.

There is a standard 24hr period 18z-18z.(7pm-7pm summertime) This gives a quick summary of the days max mins and the 24hr rainfall to 7pm.

56mm was recorded during this time, and was the figure quoted 9.30pm and 2350 weather. The 00-24z figure is 76.2mm. The 09-09z figure which is the standard met day is just in and it is c71mm.

As for "Hurricane Charley", there are a few different figures for Dublin AP. All refer to 24 hour figures, 00-24z, 09z-09z and possibly 18z-18z. The various figures I've found are 58.9mm, 65.5mm 60.2mm.

Glyni

From Irish Times.com

A major clean-up operation is getting underway this morning following serious flooding overnight which closed road and rail links and saw a number of major events cancelled.
Some 54mm of rain fell in the Dublin region in the 24 hours up to yesterday evening.
In some areas even more rain fell and Met Eireann's weather station in Dublin Airport recorded 76.2mm of rain between midnight on Friday night and midnight last night, 3mm more than was recorded on the previous wettest day when Hurricane Charlie hit in 1985.
The near-record levels of rainfall left a large number of roads impassable including the M50 between the Finglas and Ballymun exits and the Port Tunnel.

Blackhorse Avenue, Collins Avenue, Botanic Avenue, Kylemore Road and the Chapelizod Bypass were also badly hit.

The flood water has now subsided in most areas although parts of North DUblin are still suffering.

The Dart link between Malahide and Howth Junction has been reopened while rail services heading north are also running normally following disruptions yesterday evening and this morning.

A section of NI in the direction of Dublin Airport is also closed at Whitehall and detours through Santry are in place
The N3 remains closed between Blanchardstown and Clonee and motorists are experiencing long delays along the stretch.
The M3 at Blanchardstown and the southbound lane of the Port Tunnel remain closed, gardai said.

The Swords Road at Shantalla Bridge is completely impassable.
In Co Laois there is serious flooding on the road between Ballyroan and Portlaoise after a river burst its banks. The road has not been closed but motorists have been urged to proceed with caution.

The Tullamore Show, meanwhile, has been cancelled for the second year running due to the weather. It had been expected to attract 50,000 spectators and is the country’s biggest one-day rural event.
“Due to the unprecedented amount of rain that has fallen over the last 24 hours, the current state of the showgrounds, the health and safety of visitors and the welfare of show animals the executive committee are bitterly disappointed to announce that this year’s Tullamore Show and AIB National Livestock Show has been cancelled," the show's organisers said in a statement.

shamwari

Mothman wrote: »

I'll try clear up some of the confusion though StratoQ has pretty much spelt it out.

There is a standard 24hr period 18z-18z.(7pm-7pm summertime) This gives a quick summary of the days max mins and the 24hr rainfall to 7pm.

56mm was recorded during this time, and was the figure quoted 9.30pm and 2350 weather. The 00-24z figure is 76.2mm. The 09-09z figure which is the standard met day is just in and it is c71mm.

As for "Hurricane Charley", there are a few different figures for Dublin AP. All refer to 24 hour figures, 00-24z, 09z-09z and possibly 18z-18z. The various figures I've found are 58.9mm, 65.5mm 60.2mm.

Apparently during Huricane Charlie, the rain gauges on Kippure TV transmitter recorded nearly a foot of rain (or 300mm in new money!). 70mm in Dublin compared to that is getting off lightly!

Snowbie

Mothman wrote: »

I'll try clear up some of the confusion though StratoQ has pretty much spelt it out.

There is a standard 24hr period 18z-18z.(7pm-7pm summertime) This gives a quick summary of the days max mins and the 24hr rainfall to 7pm.

56mm was recorded during this time, and was the figure quoted 9.30pm and 2350 weather. The 00-24z figure is 76.2mm. The 09-09z figure which is the standard met day is just in and it is c71mm.

As for "Hurricane Charley", there are a few different figures for Dublin AP. All refer to 24 hour figures, 00-24z, 09z-09z and possibly 18z-18z. The various figures I've found are 58.9mm, 65.5mm 60.2mm.

Cheers MM, i got messed around by the 2350 forecast and did not realise it was recorded with Black Briar given me the heads up on that one.







Mind not working properly due to *ahem* consuming to much funny juice:o

Snowbie

shamwari wrote: »

Apparently during Huricane Charlie, the rain gauges on Kippure TV transmitter recorded nearly a foot of rain (or 300mm in new money!). 70mm in Dublin compared to that is getting off lightly!

The rainfal totals be always greater up in mountainous regions due to orgraphic lifting.

ninebeanrows

So i have been away for 3 days and i miss the biggest flood in my locality in decades and there is now a war between Russia and Georgia.:eek:

Mothman

Even more impressive is the 200mm at Kilcoole during Charley

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

Even more impressive is the 200mm at Kilcoole during Charley

Was that caused by orographic lift when the sugarloaf slided down towards the sea and the temporary subsequent East gale blew it back into place again later:D

Storm 10

Met Eireann were not awake to this incident yesterday, they took their eye off the ball. They got a lot of criticism on the Rachel English programme this morning saying they should have seen this coming and warned Dublin City Council and any Council that was likely to be affected.

What do you guys think of Met Eireanns role in this??????

squonk

I don't think anyone could have reliably predicted yesterday's downpours. They were caused by activity that literally flared up over the course of an hour. Even if they'd predicted thundershowers and a risk of flooding, they couldn't have pinpointed exactely where it'd be. South Dublin got off lightly. We up here in North Dublin didn't and it could have gone the other way. I think the situation was too volatile to have predicted reliably at all.

Deep Easterly

Storm 10 wrote: »

Met Eireann were not awake to this incident yesterday, they took their eye off the ball. They got a lot of criticism on the Rachel English programme this morning saying they should have seen this coming and warned Dublin City Council and any Council that was likely to be affected.

What do you guys think of Met Eireanns role in this??????

They got this storm right as much as they did the storms we had this side over the last couple of months. Every storm Galway and the west in general got this summer was completely unforecasted. (always the best type though). No different for Dublin yesterday. Storms are hard to pinpoint and forecast. And this proves that nature will always defy science in the end, which is great!!

Docarch wrote:

A little bit of confusion out there?

Met E website, and Gerry Murphy on the radio this morning on the 7.55 forecast, confimred that 76.2mm of rain fell yesterday (24 hour period) at Dublin Airport surpassing the Hurricane Charlie record set in 1986.

Straight after Met E forecast, 8.00 news reporting a total of 54.0mm fell in the 24 hour period at Dublin Airport.

For the record, I recorded 34.8mm.

I have to agree it is confusing. The 24 hr total of 50mm plus is seen as a big thing, but the 0.00hrs to 0.00hrs total of 76mm is not.

Maybe it is just me...:rolleyes:

Calina

guys, you might be interested in this thread running over on photography since yesterday.

I hid in my room after the trauma of driving from the airport to Swords...:D

nacho libre

Some great photos there. Thanks for the link.

darkman2

Increasing storm risk for tomorrow especially midlands and north and maybe the east.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn304.png Rainfall


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3011.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn308.png


Thats ahead of heavy rain tomorrow night.


Tuesday looks an even better (or worse depending on your perspective!) bet


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5411.png

Mothman

Its curious why Met E only picked the H Charley event to compare stats with. It is to do with month of August, but 11th June 93, 5th Nov 00 and 14th Nov 02 are also comparable events in terms of rainfall and flooding in Dublin region.
The return period for 24 hour fall of 76mm at Dublin AP is 50 years, BUT, 9th Aug 08 saw 76.2mm, 14 Nov 02 saw 74.6mm, 5 Nov 00 at least 63mm, 11 jun 93 at least 82.3mm......
Perhaps these return periods need to be looked at again and shortened considerably.

darkman2

Mothman wrote: »

Its curious why Met E only picked the H Charley event to compare stats with. It is to do with month of August, but 11th June 93, 5th Nov 00 and 14th Nov 02 are also comparable events in terms of rainfall and flooding in Dublin region.
The return period for 24 hour fall of 76mm at Dublin AP is 50 years, BUT, 9th Aug 08 saw 76.2mm, 14 Nov 02 saw 74.6mm, 5 Nov 00 at least 63mm, 11 jun 93 at least 82.3mm......
Perhaps these return periods need to be looked at again and shortened considerably.

meh, hurricance Charley seems to strike a cord with the public. Not sure why tbh - it was severe enough but not that severe in terms of rainfall. Most of the rain yesterday fell in 6 hours so I dont think its the best comparison either.

TheGreenGiant

From what I have read in a news paper article today a weakening El Nino pattern which semi-caused the Jet Sream to be positioned further south than normal at this time of year, has caused LOW pressure systems to drift more south rather than to the northup around iceland and north of Scotland

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

Its curious why Met E only picked the H Charley event to compare stats with. It is to do with month of August, but 11th June 93, 5th Nov 00 and 14th Nov 02 are also comparable events in terms of rainfall and flooding in Dublin region.
The return period for 24 hour fall of 76mm at Dublin AP is 50 years, BUT, 9th Aug 08 saw 76.2mm, 14 Nov 02 saw 74.6mm, 5 Nov 00 at least 63mm, 11 jun 93 at least 82.3mm......
Perhaps these return periods need to be looked at again and shortened considerably.

What would have made saturdays event more exceptional I think is that the vast bulk of that rain fell in the evening thunderstorms after 5pm.
I was in Dublin most of saturday and it was a lovely day from late morning untill almost 5pm.
That would not have been the case on the day of hurricane Charley.

Snowbie

Chances of storms has increased and look possible right across the country later today, tonight and into tomorrow Tuesday.

A renewed risk seems to run up the Irish sea for SE and E areas later.
Will post up charts later.

squonk

Could be bad... Hope there's some decent fireworks though... that'd be nice

Some pics from Saturday...