Snow (showers and longer spells) Sunday evening - Tuesday morning, possibly longer

ch750536

Is this the year where the west steals all the snow?

arctictree

Current UKMO charts are showing an LP passing through the country on Monday. GFS is starting to agree. The exact track of this low will be interesting as there is bound to be snow in it...

A

ninebeanrows

arctictree wrote: »

Current UKMO charts are showing an LP passing through the country on Monday. GFS is starting to agree. The exact track of this low will be interesting as there is bound to be snow in it...

A

Yes UKM paints an interesting picture that could look nice for Dublin IMBY'ism

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

Current UKMO charts are showing an LP passing through the country on Monday. GFS is starting to agree. The exact track of this low will be interesting as there is bound to be snow in it...

A

Indeed.
The 755am forecast on radio one this morning didn't use the word wintry,they didn't even use the word sleet.
They exclusively used the word snow.

And guess what,they also used an almost unheard of word in Glasnevin-Drifting

Guess Gerry Murphy must be trapped up in a tree with his fire blow torch somewhere again.
Hope the fire brigade don't do the rescue 'till wenesday sometime.

Snowbie

Deleted User wrote: »

Indeed.


Guess Gerry Murphy must be trapped up in a tree with his fire blow torch somewhere again.
Hope the fire brigade don't do the rescue 'till wenesday sometime.

Did you not hear, he's gone skiing.

The charts have upgraded again which is a first this winter, tis looking nicer again.

maquiladora

Met Éireann :

Monday: Very cold and windy with heavy showers of hail, sleet and snow. Highest temperatures only 2 to 5 degrees in strong to gale force southwesterly winds veering northerly. Some accumulations of snow and drifting will occur causing some disruption. Further snow showers with frost Monday night with sub-zero temperatures.

arctictree

Still no mention of where the showers will be heaviest on Monday. We'll know tomorrow I suppose...

lucernarian

I'm not very hopeful about this... Those sort of synoptics are very hard to achieve, and it's very rare to a polar maratime source of air which is unmodified enough to make it easily snow, yet have enough precipitation.

For Dublin anyway, past events have shown that NWerly based synoptics simply do not deliver much past a dusting.

I think a couple or mabye a few counties may be in line for an inch, or two on high ground. Enough for snowballs anyway:)

Paddy.1

Why am I getting the feeling that Kerry could be the favoured spot again in this scrape of an event?

Is Kerry the new north?

Paddy this is actually better for you than the last time the synoptics were similar.
I don't think you should be so down beat about it.
A now cast really though.
It looks like it will have heavier,more organised and prolonged precip but true,I'll believe it when I see it.

Total now cast for the East because if it ends up like today any precip may die reaching the East only to pep up again on crossing the Irish sea and hitting Wales and the SW of the UK.
We shall see.

arctictree

Well,I think Mondays setup is different. That LP is off the coast of Donegal on the 12z and on the 18z its over cornwall. So it must track over the country in between. Thats when we'll see the precip on the east coast. This is very different than showers crossing the country in an unstable westerly flow.

A

Paddy.1

arctictree wrote: »

Well,I think Mondays setup is different. That LP is off the coast of Donegal on the 12z and on the 18z its over cornwall. So it must track over the country in between. Thats when we'll see the precip on the east coast. This is very different than showers crossing the country in an unstable westerly flow.

A

The gradient around the center is slack. Whilst I agree that there may be enough potency around the center of the low as it crosses over Ireland to give some of us some sort of precipitation, the favoured areas will be I think those areas exposed to the tighter pressure gradient. Even polar low cannot be fed as they cross over land, particulary when winds are slack.

Also the airmass over Ireland just before the low while certainly chilly, is of concern to me, cold rain is still possible.
I talk from experience, the last episode at the beginning of Feb was actually a more potent synoptic wise, yet it delivered F*** all in the way of lying snow. It rained here when it was forecast to snow, and just started snowing when the showers were dying out.

1000 times bitten this pitiful winter makes me 2 shy.

I won't be fooled again..;

Ps Black Briar, I still hope you are right though...:)

Snowbie

Around the centre of LP systems contains warm sectors if not entirely thus if moving down across the country the southern flank of the system will be the best bet for any wintry precip as the wind is drawn back in from the PM or colder side.

So depending on the track some of us (as Paddy said) could just have cold rain or on its southern flank more of a wintry flavour. As always low lying or coastal areas are marginal with the above with higher ground be more favoured.
Nowcast i think atm for snow unless track is a pinpoint certain.

Gonzo

not expecting much from this either in the east, maybe some wintry/sleety spells with snow mixed in producing a wet ground but as for 'lying snow' I think its gonna be very difficult to achieve. The snow would have to be constant for a few hours and temps no higher than 2C - I cant see this happening in Dublin City/eastern coastline areas anyway.

High ground in the east and parts of the West and North should see a dusting in places.

Supercell

I wish this was happening tomorrow. I'm gonna get no work done on Monday as I'll be checking my Annamoe webcam constantly - I cannot imagine anything worse than being stuck in rainy work while its a whiteout here!

Imagine not being able to get home because its snowed in so the only place you can stay is a horrible rainy industrial estate ..YUCK!!

nacho libre

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Why am I getting the feeling that Kerry could be the favoured spot again in this scrape of an event?

Is Kerry the new north?

because you are a pessimist:p
i think the midlands and to the futher south will do well. i think in the west and noth west on low ground it could be rain. i recall this happened before where it only turned to snow as it went further south and was set to clear here. i hope that does not happen this time.

darkman2

Im not too sure about the East of the country atm. Whilst the GFS, on the ensembles the op run is underdoing the precip big time, these are runs at a lower resolution. However the UKMO and GFS both show the center of the secondary low crossing the country on Monday. For the most precip you would want to be south of this.


If the models are showing, as I suspect, not showers but a longer spell of sleet and snow for the west and southwest then that would leave the East coast dry. Also, typically, the center of these little lows tend to be dry away from windward coasts because the circulation means that there is a longer land track. This will not be the case for the SW and South. It may well be the case for us however.


This is a Polar Low btw in our context because its within air below -5C at 850hpa level with the warm sector not rising above this. This also means the intensity of precip will decrease quickly as it moves across land.


For us on the East coast we would rather it was slightly further north tbh. Having said that the GFS op run is underdoing precip markedly compared to all the other ensembles so this will be a nowcast situation for us here. For the West its nailed.

BTW this is what I mean about the precip

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn424.png

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/UW48-594.GIF

Paddy.1

darkman2 wrote: »

For us on the East coast we would rather it was slightly further north tbh. Having said that the GFS op run is underdoing precip markedly compared to all the other ensembles so this will be a nowcast situation for us here. For the West its nailed.

The best chance of the east getting something I think is when the low passes through, allowing a temporary north easterly to develop in its wake thus dragging in some potentially potent showers off the Irish sea. I always give the worst case scenario, so hopefully my own pessimism will fall flat on its face.

What I am looking forward to is the increasing thunderstorm risk with this polar low. I think it was around this time of year in 2002 that a similar situation brought 12 hrs of continous thunder and lightning here (and at night:)). I remember witnessing some incredible sky filling forked lightning. Even got to see the Eircom Tower in Tuam being struck twice in the space of a minute.

Hope we get something out of this anyway.

kerry1960

evening all , just back from uk ( a 3day working trip that turned into a 7day work trip , alcohol not included ) and what a timely return , my daughter surfing the site in my absence and she say we're getting more snow ,:D jeez again , the last fall we got on 1st feb has only just melted ( well....erm......on the 2nd feb ) but anyway its looking good again even for my loc , esp on monday nite , right im off to the bright lights to spend the night discussing tomorrows kerry/derry match :D:D

darkman2

The new fax chart for tomorrow must surely be considered an upgrade

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif


If that occlusion arrives intact - snow fest.

Snowbie

Darkman2 wrote:

This is a Polar Low btw in our context because its within air below -5C at 850hpa level with the warm sector not rising above this. This also means the intensity of precip will decrease quickly as it moves across land.

DM that aint a PL, it would have some characteristics of a PL (smal size going by pressure charts) but the NW to SE track would be the first time i would have seen such a long track from its origin in the N atlantic to cross us and then forecast to track in over the UK and Europe. Its just an old depression caught in the flow to put it in laymans terms and sweep down over us.

Polar lows tend to track between Iceland and Norway(in this part of the hemisphere) or close to the arctic and their life span are very short lived at 24hrs or so.
We only get these (and rare as they are) when in a constant northerly when the cold air rides over the warmer SST, a disturbance or a small mesocyclone is formed. ie:2001 when the last one formed just north of Donegal.

Yes and your right, these lads need the waters to survive and disipate quick over a landmass, though Ireland aint a big landmass so the affects would be felt both up north and down south again depending on how fast the upper air flow is.

From now on will be nowcasting and radar watching. Also the sat pics from just off the west coast to spot any CBs clumping and merging together creating more persistent showers will be interesting.There could be a few storms around too mainly out west.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

If the models are showing, as I suspect, not showers but a longer spell of sleet and snow for the west and southwest then that would leave the East coast dry. Also, typically, the center of these little lows tend to be dry away from windward coasts because the circulation means that there is a longer land track. This will not be the case for the SW and South. It may well be the case for us however.

Good analysis there.
Convection conditions too whilst there now are still weak at this time of the year.

This is a Polar Low btw in our context because its within air below -5C at 850hpa level with the warm sector not rising above this. This also means the intensity of precip will decrease quickly as it moves across land.

Bolded by me for emphasis because I think you were probably trying to say this low is polar in origins and air mass but you werent meaning to describe it as a polar low.
You know well what a polar low is, soI'd imagine thats what you meant and words let you down?

paddy1 wrote:

I talk from experience, the last episode at the beginning of Feb was actually a more potent synoptic wise, yet it delivered F*** all in the way of lying snow. It rained here when it was forecast to snow, and just started snowing when the showers were dying out.

I actually don't think this scenario will deliver much in terms of lying snow either away from higher ground.
It's all about the precip and it looks like there will be more of it around especially in the west than last time.
If it's heavy it will lie.
One thing to remember though and something that might affect things to your good,,theres an element of colliding air masses about this and you know what happens when air masses collide-Yes precip explodes.
If the existing airmass is chased away too quickly then the precip will be poorer.

arctictree

LOL - is that met eireanns new symbol for a snow front?:

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/atlantic-charts.asp

Never seen that before...

Also, with LP slap over the country, there has to be showers on the east coast - right?!

It's positioning and direction is quite nice from an imby point of view if thats where it goes.

ninebeanrows

I think we might be pleasently surprised tomorrow, the low pressure that is expected to cross the country carries with it little in the way of a warm sector, which is extremely interesting.

Maxima countrywide will just reach 4c, considering that if the sun comes out for say 30 mins, this can be expected at this time of year.

I would expect temperature to dip to 0/1c during precipitation.

There could well be some snow showers tonight too.

It will be interesting to see how the LP develops over the next while!!

Paddy.1

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we might be pleasently surprised tomorrow, the low pressure that is expected to cross the country carries with it little in the way of a warm sector, which is extremely interesting.

There could well be some snow showers tonight too.

BBC rainfall graph for Ireland not the worst. Fair spread of whites.


As Snowbie said yesterday, defo a now cast scenario coming up.

ninebeanrows

Radio forecast indicated a "very wintry day tomorrow"

Widespread "hail,sleet and snow showers" with a "covering of snow in places posssibly causing disruption".

squonk

Well the Eagle called it on the Farming Weather just now! Looking good!!!

ninebeanrows

I found this!

An illustration of why February 27th 2001 was just so good:eek:


http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EIDW/2001/2/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

like 30 hours of snow falling

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

I found this!

An illustration of why February 27th 2001 was just so good


http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EIDW/2001/2/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

like 30 hours of snow falling

Yeah who doesnt remember that Matty.
It was during the foot and mouth crisis.
It snowed all day down here from morning to night.We used have to put disinfectant on the mats at the front of the drive and were wondering what was the point as you couldnt see the mat...

you're not going to have a repeat of that tomorrow though I think.