Snow (showers and longer spells) Sunday evening - Tuesday morning, possibly longer

darkman2

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn784.png


Keep a good eye Monday night in particular - 850'shpa level temps well below -5 and maxes around 0 - 1C and as you can see plenty of precipitation around. This is a good time of year for thetup as we wont have to worry about lack of inland convection.

There is also a slim possibility the cold snap could go on past Tuesday but for now its Sunday night onward.

Snowbie

I wouldn bet on maxes of 0C or 1C darkman. Maybe in showers the temp will yo yo just like Mothmans in his backyard in any showers. With -5C 850mb temps, your looking at no lower than 5C or 6C surface temps in sun. Will naturally plummet in precip.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote: »

I wouldn bet on maxes of 0C or 1C darkman. Maybe in showers the temp will yo yo just like Mothmans in his backyard in any showers. With -5C 850mb temps, your looking at no lower than 5C or 6C surface temps in sun. Will naturally plummet in precip.

Sorry Snowbie - I meant those maxes on Sunday night along with the precip then. Naturally in lying snow temps would really struggle. Looks pretty good right now - hope its not jinxed!:D

BTW you will note the cynisism about the upcoming setup on UK forums but for us this is excellent.

For the last two mornings in a row,the 755am forecast on radio one mentioned snow and hail showers on monday.
This morning they even mentioned the slight possiblity of prolonged sleet and snow on tuesday but gave no details.

arctictree

Latest GFS is looking very stormy/snowy for middle of next week. Still a bit far out though...

Edit: In fact the 18z for Wednesday would be madness for the London area if it came off...

A

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

For the last two mornings in a row,the 755am forecast on radio one mentioned snow and hail showers on monday.
This morning they even mentioned the slight possiblity of prolonged sleet and snow on tuesday but gave no details.

They would be using the ECM so it would be this chart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif - I can see where they are coming from. Looks like there is a front West to East across the country. Remians to be seen how much this changes but Monday looks bitter on the ECM. Sunday night should see snow showers IMO.

nacho libre

I told you folks March would have a few tricks in store for us after the mild February.

darkman2

Could be a snow fest for some on Sunday night, if not all

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=72&carte=1007

ninebeanrows

Interesting snap, but things look very marginal, an increase in depth of that low to our northwest or a distrubance will cause the temperature to rise too much.

As it is however the 6z GFS is sweet for next Monday however.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

But we are talking heavy wintry showers.

darkman2

Id bet my house that showers from Sunday night onward will be exclusively snow esspecially inland;) There is a real good chance many will wake up to at least a dusting and if the ECM is right also something more prolonged Monday night. This is possibly the most substantial chance of snow since the beginning of January.

ch750536

darkman2 wrote: »

Id bet my house that showers from Sunday night onward will be exclusively snow esspecially inland;) There is a real good chance many will wake up to at least a dusting and if the ECM is right also something more prolonged Monday night. This is possibly the most substantial chance of snow since the beginning of January.

I'll take that bet.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

Interesting snap, but things look very marginal, an increase in depth of that low to our northwest or a distrubance will cause the temperature to rise too much.

As it is however the 6z GFS is sweet for next Monday however.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

But we are talking heavy wintry showers.

The "chatter" amongst U.S forecasters is of the ECMWF models's solutions veering closer to that of the GFS.
That will make tonights output and tomorrows very interesting and for a very interesting potentially countryfile forecast on sunday.
Theres no excuse that they can use like running out of time on that broadcast,they have to nail their colours to the mast as to sunday night monday and tuesday or they mayaswell cancel the broadcast.

Longfield,I'd be charging up the camera by the way as you never know ...

Paddy.1

Weathercheck wrote: »

Interesting snap, but things look very marginal, an increase in depth of that low to our northwest or a distrubance will cause the temperature to rise too much.

As it is however the 6z GFS is sweet for next Monday however.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

But we are talking heavy wintry showers.

No disrespect, but I can't see anything to get overly excited about in that chart. A few wintry showers maybe with some localised lying slush for an hour or 2 at night. Am I missing something?

darkman2

www.met.ie

Warnings


Weather Warning

Issued at 29 February 2008 - 13:46
Weather Advisory
Wintry showers of hail, sleet or snow from Sunday evening to early Tuesday. Accumulations up to 3cm possible in places and more on higher ground.

So what do you think - should I apply for my job at met eireann or wait for the phone call?:D

Trogdor

darkman2 wrote: »

www.met.ie




So what do you think - should I apply for my job at met eireann or wait for the phone call?:D

No need they're on their way to your house right now:p. Looks interesting atm alright would be great to get Monday off after just having 2 weeks work experience:D.

Paddy.1

Deleted User wrote: »

The "chatter" amongst U.S forecasters is of the ECMWF models's solutions veering closer to that of the GFS.

Where are you hearing this BB? since GFS seem to be backing slowly (but surely) away from anything interesting, and since any cold synoptics being shown by GFS lately were just a following of the cold outlook ECMWF had a few days ago before they backed down?

I hope you are right though.. I am past wanting anything snow wise for this winter, but I am hoping that the unstable air will bring the potential for thunder from sunday night onwards.. March usually delivers here quite well on that score.

nacho libre

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Where are you hearing this BB? since GFS seem to be backing slowly (but surely) away from anything interesting, and since any cold synoptics being shown by GFS lately were just a following of the cold outlook ECMWF had a few days ago before they backed down?

I hope you are right though.. I am past wanting anything snow wise for this winter, but I am hoping that the unstable air will bring the potential for thunder from sunday night onwards.. March usually delivers here quite well on that score.

I can relate to what you're saying. So, i'm not going to get my hopes up too much for this either.

Paddy.1

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Where are you hearing this BB? since GFS seem to be backing slowly (but surely) away from anything interesting, and since any cold synoptics being shown by GFS lately were just a following of the cold outlook ECMWF had a few days ago before they backed down?

The NWS (United States) discussion on their forecast composition-which is their current thinking on model performance evaluation to date over there.
It's an opinion from them on reliability as they are not shy in saying as to what models or mix of models they use and why at a particular point.

I'm not saying I agree with them as there are particular peculiarities with some Western Europe synoptics and whats in front of us is no exception to that.

Paddy.1

nacho libre wrote: »

I can relate to what you're saying. So, i'm not going to get my hopes up too much for this either.

We may well get some snow showers alright, which might give a dusting, but it is not looking like it will be anything more than a 24hr event, if at all. However, some Atlantic thunderstorms might be more of an interest. Lets hope anyway!!

Supercell

Deleted User wrote: »

Longfield,I'd be charging up the camera by the way as you never know ...

Believe me, I've been watching this very very closely

Snowbie

Paddy.1 wrote: »

We may well get some snow showers alright, which might give a dusting, but it is not looking like it will be anything more than a 24hr event, if at all. However, some Atlantic thunderstorms might be more of an interest. Lets hope anyway!!

Yep i agree nothing more than 24hrs and probably less atm depending on the next two runs which could change this.
Cant see this being too exciting over the eastern side of the country either.The pressure is really rising from monday afternoon onwards and i expect that monday evening and night will be cold and blustery in the east with showers kept going on the windward coasts.

As for Sunday evening the cold air digging in behind the front will probably turn to snow for a short time mainly settling over the higher ground with amounts very small as it pushes SE.

nacho libre

Snowbie wrote: »

Yep i agree nothing more than 24hrs and probably less atm depending on the next two runs which could change this.
Cant see this being too exciting over the eastern side of the country either.The pressure is really rising from monday afternoon onwards and i expect that monday evening and night will be cold and blustery in the east with showers kept going on the windward coasts.

As for Sunday evening the cold air digging in behind the front will probably turn to snow for a short time mainly settling over the higher ground with amounts very small as it pushes SE.

well, getting into March i think a 24 hour event is the best we can hope for. A few hours of heavy snow showers will do me at this stage. i just hope at sometime in my life i can experience what some of the posters here got to witness in the winter of 1982.

Supercell

24hours = 24hours more snow than most people posting here have seen in years nacho, dont knock that!

Sierra Oscar

I see Met Eireann have a weather warning up in relation to this.

Issued at 29 February 2008 - 13:46
Weather Advisory
Wintry showers of hail, sleet or snow from Sunday evening to early Tuesday. Accumulations up to 3cm possible in places and more on higher ground.

Supercell

There are a few posters here living on "higher ground" ,if it happens like that, we should hopefully know about it

arctictree

Well, Evelyn just mentioned the 'S' word for Monday. Looks like the showers could turn up anywhere. A nowcast event I think but more likely in the west.

Snowbie

18z GFS is a slight upgrade. Well the potential is there for some widespread wintry showers and snow. Winds remaining strong so most places at risk from a heavy shower.It will still be a short lived snap.Here is to more upgrades.

Also of note is GFS FI is throwing a sustained N'ly from next weekend on too.

Gonzo

im not believing any 'runs' even if rte and bbc make us 100% believe ther will be snow, look how the last cold snap turned out, all the charts were painting snow all over ireland even up the last second and then nothng happened except down in kerry. Also the heavy snow that I got in January was downgraded to nothing at the last minute then boom, 6 inchs of snow so im just gonna stick my head out the window on sunday/monday/tuesday and see where the snow falls/doesnt fall:)

nacho libre

Longfield wrote: »

24hours = 24hours more snow than most people posting here have seen in years nacho, dont knock that!

Longfield, I'm quite happy to only get a 24 hour window of snow. In ireland it's rare to get a widespread snow event past 48 hours no matter what month it is.
A couple of inches- even an inch of lying snow will satisfy me during this event. hell, even we get very heavy snow showers like the last time that'll do me.:D

Gonzo

even in the 80s snow spells at this time of the year were not much longer than 2 to 3 days, March is stretchin it for long periods of cold and snowy weather now that January/February are finished with.

Darwin

Met Eireann are fairly going for it on Monday:

Some accumulations of snow and drifting will occur causing some disruption. Further snow showers with frost Monday night with sub-zero temperatures.

ch750536

Is this the year where the west steals all the snow?

arctictree

Current UKMO charts are showing an LP passing through the country on Monday. GFS is starting to agree. The exact track of this low will be interesting as there is bound to be snow in it...

A

ninebeanrows

arctictree wrote: »

Current UKMO charts are showing an LP passing through the country on Monday. GFS is starting to agree. The exact track of this low will be interesting as there is bound to be snow in it...

A

Yes UKM paints an interesting picture that could look nice for Dublin IMBY'ism

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

Current UKMO charts are showing an LP passing through the country on Monday. GFS is starting to agree. The exact track of this low will be interesting as there is bound to be snow in it...

A

Indeed.
The 755am forecast on radio one this morning didn't use the word wintry,they didn't even use the word sleet.
They exclusively used the word snow.

And guess what,they also used an almost unheard of word in Glasnevin-Drifting

Guess Gerry Murphy must be trapped up in a tree with his fire blow torch somewhere again.
Hope the fire brigade don't do the rescue 'till wenesday sometime.

Snowbie

Deleted User wrote: »

Indeed.


Guess Gerry Murphy must be trapped up in a tree with his fire blow torch somewhere again.
Hope the fire brigade don't do the rescue 'till wenesday sometime.

Did you not hear, he's gone skiing.

The charts have upgraded again which is a first this winter, tis looking nicer again.

maquiladora

Met Éireann :

Monday: Very cold and windy with heavy showers of hail, sleet and snow. Highest temperatures only 2 to 5 degrees in strong to gale force southwesterly winds veering northerly. Some accumulations of snow and drifting will occur causing some disruption. Further snow showers with frost Monday night with sub-zero temperatures.

arctictree

Still no mention of where the showers will be heaviest on Monday. We'll know tomorrow I suppose...

lucernarian

I'm not very hopeful about this... Those sort of synoptics are very hard to achieve, and it's very rare to a polar maratime source of air which is unmodified enough to make it easily snow, yet have enough precipitation.

For Dublin anyway, past events have shown that NWerly based synoptics simply do not deliver much past a dusting.

I think a couple or mabye a few counties may be in line for an inch, or two on high ground. Enough for snowballs anyway:)

Paddy.1

Why am I getting the feeling that Kerry could be the favoured spot again in this scrape of an event?

Is Kerry the new north?

Paddy this is actually better for you than the last time the synoptics were similar.
I don't think you should be so down beat about it.
A now cast really though.
It looks like it will have heavier,more organised and prolonged precip but true,I'll believe it when I see it.

Total now cast for the East because if it ends up like today any precip may die reaching the East only to pep up again on crossing the Irish sea and hitting Wales and the SW of the UK.
We shall see.

arctictree

Well,I think Mondays setup is different. That LP is off the coast of Donegal on the 12z and on the 18z its over cornwall. So it must track over the country in between. Thats when we'll see the precip on the east coast. This is very different than showers crossing the country in an unstable westerly flow.

A

Paddy.1

arctictree wrote: »

Well,I think Mondays setup is different. That LP is off the coast of Donegal on the 12z and on the 18z its over cornwall. So it must track over the country in between. Thats when we'll see the precip on the east coast. This is very different than showers crossing the country in an unstable westerly flow.

A

The gradient around the center is slack. Whilst I agree that there may be enough potency around the center of the low as it crosses over Ireland to give some of us some sort of precipitation, the favoured areas will be I think those areas exposed to the tighter pressure gradient. Even polar low cannot be fed as they cross over land, particulary when winds are slack.

Also the airmass over Ireland just before the low while certainly chilly, is of concern to me, cold rain is still possible.
I talk from experience, the last episode at the beginning of Feb was actually a more potent synoptic wise, yet it delivered F*** all in the way of lying snow. It rained here when it was forecast to snow, and just started snowing when the showers were dying out.

1000 times bitten this pitiful winter makes me 2 shy.

I won't be fooled again..;

Ps Black Briar, I still hope you are right though...:)

Snowbie

Around the centre of LP systems contains warm sectors if not entirely thus if moving down across the country the southern flank of the system will be the best bet for any wintry precip as the wind is drawn back in from the PM or colder side.

So depending on the track some of us (as Paddy said) could just have cold rain or on its southern flank more of a wintry flavour. As always low lying or coastal areas are marginal with the above with higher ground be more favoured.
Nowcast i think atm for snow unless track is a pinpoint certain.

Gonzo

not expecting much from this either in the east, maybe some wintry/sleety spells with snow mixed in producing a wet ground but as for 'lying snow' I think its gonna be very difficult to achieve. The snow would have to be constant for a few hours and temps no higher than 2C - I cant see this happening in Dublin City/eastern coastline areas anyway.

High ground in the east and parts of the West and North should see a dusting in places.

Supercell

I wish this was happening tomorrow. I'm gonna get no work done on Monday as I'll be checking my Annamoe webcam constantly - I cannot imagine anything worse than being stuck in rainy work while its a whiteout here!

Imagine not being able to get home because its snowed in so the only place you can stay is a horrible rainy industrial estate ..YUCK!!

nacho libre

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Why am I getting the feeling that Kerry could be the favoured spot again in this scrape of an event?

Is Kerry the new north?

because you are a pessimist:p
i think the midlands and to the futher south will do well. i think in the west and noth west on low ground it could be rain. i recall this happened before where it only turned to snow as it went further south and was set to clear here. i hope that does not happen this time.

darkman2

Im not too sure about the East of the country atm. Whilst the GFS, on the ensembles the op run is underdoing the precip big time, these are runs at a lower resolution. However the UKMO and GFS both show the center of the secondary low crossing the country on Monday. For the most precip you would want to be south of this.


If the models are showing, as I suspect, not showers but a longer spell of sleet and snow for the west and southwest then that would leave the East coast dry. Also, typically, the center of these little lows tend to be dry away from windward coasts because the circulation means that there is a longer land track. This will not be the case for the SW and South. It may well be the case for us however.


This is a Polar Low btw in our context because its within air below -5C at 850hpa level with the warm sector not rising above this. This also means the intensity of precip will decrease quickly as it moves across land.


For us on the East coast we would rather it was slightly further north tbh. Having said that the GFS op run is underdoing precip markedly compared to all the other ensembles so this will be a nowcast situation for us here. For the West its nailed.

BTW this is what I mean about the precip

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn424.png

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/UW48-594.GIF

Paddy.1

darkman2 wrote: »

For us on the East coast we would rather it was slightly further north tbh. Having said that the GFS op run is underdoing precip markedly compared to all the other ensembles so this will be a nowcast situation for us here. For the West its nailed.

The best chance of the east getting something I think is when the low passes through, allowing a temporary north easterly to develop in its wake thus dragging in some potentially potent showers off the Irish sea. I always give the worst case scenario, so hopefully my own pessimism will fall flat on its face.

What I am looking forward to is the increasing thunderstorm risk with this polar low. I think it was around this time of year in 2002 that a similar situation brought 12 hrs of continous thunder and lightning here (and at night:)). I remember witnessing some incredible sky filling forked lightning. Even got to see the Eircom Tower in Tuam being struck twice in the space of a minute.

Hope we get something out of this anyway.

kerry1960

evening all , just back from uk ( a 3day working trip that turned into a 7day work trip , alcohol not included ) and what a timely return , my daughter surfing the site in my absence and she say we're getting more snow ,:D jeez again , the last fall we got on 1st feb has only just melted ( well....erm......on the 2nd feb ) but anyway its looking good again even for my loc , esp on monday nite , right im off to the bright lights to spend the night discussing tomorrows kerry/derry match :D:D

darkman2

The new fax chart for tomorrow must surely be considered an upgrade

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif


If that occlusion arrives intact - snow fest.