Thunderstorms

rc28

For those interested, there is a good satellite loop of some MCS over Spain this evening (from TWO);
http://www.sat24.nl/sat/sp_loop.gif?rnd=629059
The 19:00 image is the best.

rc28

Some good storms over north africa too;http://www.sat24.nl/frame.php?html=loop

Trogdor

A few thunderstorms embedded in the cold front possible in places tonight, but i think the main risk area will be Western UK.

Met Eireann wrote:

Tonight, some heavy and possibly thundery rain in places at first, before a clearance to scattered showers spreads from the west.

http://www.met.ie/

Estofex wrote:

...Ireland, United Kingdom and Scotland....

An intense 140kt jet will curve around the upper-level trough and should keep the main trough axis in a neutral position. In its left exit region, strong pressure fall will help to sustain / strengthen a short wave, which will cross those regions between 21 and 06Z from the west. This short wave will be placed on the warm side of this trough axis and hence in an environment with weak lapse rates / instability release.
Strongest LL shear / storm relative helcitiy values and winds at 850hPa can be found in the warm and quite stable airmass ahead of the cold front. However there are signs that a line of strongly forced storms could develop along the eastward racing cold front, affecting mainly the (south-)western parts of United Kingdom and Scotland between 00-06Z.
LCLs stay low, LL shear is at least marginal enhanced ( mainly along the coastal areas ) and as CAA progresses and LL lapse rates steepen, 0-3km CAPE release increases. Latest thinking is that SW United Kingdom and W / SW Scotland should see the best conditions for an isolated tornado report.
0-6km DLS of 35-50m/s and 1-8km shear of more than 60m/s are very impressive values and each thunderstorm, penetrating deeper in the atmosphere could produce a few severe wind gusts.
The main reasons for not issuing a broad level-1 right now are the quite weak shear at 0-3km ( about 10-20m/s ) and the uncertainty about the final thunderstorm coverage. As EL temperatures stay warm, convection is mostly expected to stay shallow, not possible to incorporate the stronger winds from above.
Probabilities will be augmented if there are signs for a more robust thunderstorm event.

Ireland was partially excluded of the thunderstorm area, because the short-wave just develops while passing over this area and won't be yet in contact with a tongue of higher Theta-E's, which should foster the possibly enhanced convective activity. Thereafter, weak ridging should suppress any deep convection until 06Z:mad: .

http://www.estofex.org/

Snowbie

Maybe trogdor looking at all the info,strong convective updraft could be forced from the Dublin/Wicklow hills allowing from some pretty hefty showers or a storm.Due to strong southerly winds ahead of the trough and the above,it could aid in developing the short wave on top of us here and steeping lapse rates further.Interesting evening ahead,not one you will see too often as surface warming or the sun is not the case in this situation.

Lots and lots of shear in this one too.

Trogdor

Don't understand half of that but sounds good:D:p. A few sferics appearing North and South-West of Ireland now.
http://meteocentre.com/lightning/map_sfuk.php?time=0&lang=en

Snowbie

lol,to put it in laymans terms,showers can be rapidly produced in a situation like this(before the radar catches them) also a squall line could develop over the extreme eastern side of the country from the north wicklow up to antrim.
Chances are low for storms but some torrential continuous downpours is possible later on in the night.

Trogdor

Snowbie wrote:

lol,to put it in laymans terms,showers can be rapidly produced in a situation like this(before the radar catches them) also a squall line could develop over the extreme eastern side of the country from the north wicklow up to antrim.
Chances are low for storms but some torrential continuous downpours is possible later on in the night.

Thanks for that Puts away weather talk to English dictionary
Looks like there could be some thundery potential tomorrow as well

Met Eireann wrote:

Showers will be widespread and heavy - especially across the north and west with a continuing risk of thunder.

http://www.met.ie/
Meanwhile...the front advances
http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Snowbie

If you notice the echoes over the east,thats the first front of two.
The second is the one to watch near centre of the country now and stalling abit.

The air ahead of it is forced to rise along the front or advect and should create much heavier rain as it moves east.You will probably see more widespread pink or maybe more red as the evening goes on from the radar.The wind should increase ahead of this front too.

It resembles a squall line now but i cant see too much in the way of TS from this,the odd rumble.Cloud tops are not too high so any lightning will be isolated along this as instability or lapse rates are not high yet.

Im interesting to see when this hits the wicklow mountains,there should be more lift generated.

rc28

Wow, play the radar loop and see what that front became this morning over britain, especialy around 04:00
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

nilhg

The forecast of possible tornadoes was bang on, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7010172.stm.

Trogdor

Looks like the same air mass that produced Mallorca's supercell is sparking off again West of Italy.
http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=italia
http://meteocentre.com/lightning/map_sfuk.php?time=0&lang=en

Trogdor

Chance of a heavy showers and possible thunderstorms tomorrow after the cold front passes through tonight, most likely over the Northern half of the country though.

Hal1

Some heavy rainfalls around scotland atm: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html Chance of something manifesting later?

Trogdor

Hal1 wrote: »

Some heavy rainfalls around scotland atm: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html Chance of something manifesting later?

Thats the cold front moving in which will affect us later on tonight will some locally high rainfall totals. The highest risk if any of thundery activity will be in the post-frontal airmass tomorrow though i think.

Trogdor

A few sferics over Western Ireland atm
http://meteocentre.com/lightning/map_sfuk.php?time=5&lang=en
There seems to be a band of heavy rain pushing in as well. squall?
http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp?ani=y

Hal1

Found a useful site here. It basically shows systems over Europe, its a Belguim website that uses sat images and updates every 1 - 2 hours. You can clearly see the TS's over Scotland from earlier this morning.

Paddy.1

trogdor wrote: »

A few sferics over Western Ireland atm
http://meteocentre.com/lightning/map_sfuk.php?time=5&lang=en
There seems to be a band of heavy rain pushing in as well. squall?
http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp?ani=y

Yes, there was lightning here in the West on sunday evening. Not a huge amount of it, but quite vivid in the darkness. The thunder was quite loud, but rainfall nothing to right home about.

Paddy

Snowbie

Picked up sfreics over SW Wales moving in the general direction of our SE coast.

hellboy99

Bolt of lightning came down about 50ft away from the front of my house about 30 minutes ago :eek:

Snowbie

Some wicked storms in the Celtic sea might clip the Kerry coast later but probably stay off shore.

Wertz

hellboy99 wrote: »

Bolt of lightning came down about 50ft away from the front of my house about 30 minutes ago :eek:

Where in Louth are you hellboy?
Feckin' rain last night was as heavy as I've ever seen it, then the thunder got going, didn't see any lightning though.
It did nothing but lash rain in Dundalk all day today...

Takeshi_Kovacs

Snowbie wrote: »

Some wicked storms in the Celtic sea might clip the Kerry coast later but probably stay off shore.

Nothing here all day but blue skies

sunset

There were a couple of lightning flashes early this morning about 6 am way off to the south, probably off the Cork coast. Some spectacular cumulonimbus clouds in that diection too, but no thunder heard.

hellboy99

Wertz wrote: »

Where in Louth are you hellboy?
Feckin' rain last night was as heavy as I've ever seen it, then the thunder got going, didn't see any lightning though.
It did nothing but lash rain in Dundalk all day today...

In Dundalk myself, it was the only one I saw and I happened to see it by accident, I just went to close a window and there it came
The rain was unreal, thought at one point I'd be off to get the sandbags !

Mothman

Recent thunder recorded from Malin Head at 7am.

Avns1s

Plenty of thunder and lightening in Mayo in the last 20 mins.

Paddy.1

Same here too in Galway. Seems to be moving on East though.

Takeshi_Kovacs

had a bit here around 1.40 pm today

ch750536

Here too, for about 20 mins only. :mad:

Snowbie

Recording a decent storm now over co.Clare