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02-12-2015, 08:46   #1
M.T. Cranium
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Storm Desmond - High Winds 4/5 December 2015

As almost all guidance seems to agree now that wind gusts in exposed western counties may exceed 120 km/hr on Friday, I have opened up this new discussion thread for strong winds Friday into early Saturday.

The global models and the short-range specialty models seem to agree on this and you could find depictions of 120 km/hr or higher gusts near the Mayo coast on almost all models in the 00z suite.

The strongest winds should gradually move east across all regions, arriving on the south coast later Friday and on the east coast early Saturday morning.

This event does not currently look too bad for heavy rain potential but will address that later.

The GFS model also shows further windstorm potential later in the month, in particular around mid-month. This is probably the truer signal of the colder conditions likely to develop than anything you might read in a tabloid about a 2010-style cold spell and snowfall. That's not really supported in any reliable guidance although it could eventually get cold enough for wintry showers (in about two weeks).
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02-12-2015, 09:09   #2
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Thanks for the advance warning.

I'll be on the road early Saturday morning travelling from East to West. While I'll most likely miss the chance to "enjoy" the best of the wind I'll know to be alert for debris on tge roads once I leave the motorway and national primary roads.

Both recent storm have felled trees across public roads here in West Limerick so there's the potential for a similar occurance
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02-12-2015, 09:19   #3
 
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What will conditions be like on the east coast around 6pm Friday ? Am due to fly out of Dublin.
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02-12-2015, 09:31   #4
 
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What will conditions be like on the east coast around 6pm Friday ? Am due to fly out of Dublin.
www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Dublin_airport_

Updates four times per day
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02-12-2015, 09:38   #5
 
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Crap. 60mph gusts likely to mean disruption.
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02-12-2015, 09:40   #6
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Waterford half marathon is on Saturday morning 10.00am, so it could be a rough day for runners and volunteers
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02-12-2015, 10:09   #7
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Friday evening looking windy on the 06Z GFS. Probably a bit weaker than Barney for inland areas, but a longer period of strong winds and covering a wider area than on Nov 17th.



Also got to keep an eye on a potential low crossing the country Saturday/Sunday.

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02-12-2015, 10:51   #8
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Sounds good for wave watching Mullaghmore should be epic.
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02-12-2015, 12:19   #9
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Is this part of the same system that is giving violent storm force 11 winds south east of Iceland?*

*half asleep listening to the shipping forecast early this morning
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02-12-2015, 13:41   #10
marvin80
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Crap. 60mph gusts likely to mean disruption.
What mph would usually cause a disruption?

(Flying early Saturday morning)
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02-12-2015, 13:57   #11
 
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What mph would usually cause a disruption?

(Flying early Saturday morning)
It's the direction that's as much a problem as the strength of the wind because cross winds make it difficult for aircraft.

This is forecasted to be south westerly and the runway is westerly so there'll be a significant cross wind. Once gusts get to 40+ knots with significant cross wind it seems to cause delays and cancellations.
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02-12-2015, 13:59   #12
Irish Steve
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What mph would usually cause a disruption?

(Flying early Saturday morning)
Depends on the direction and the size of aircraft you will be flying on.

The smaller aircraft (ATR sizes) are restricted to about 35 Kts cross wind component, and if it gets above 50 Kts, even if it is directly down the runway, that speed can cause issues with things like opening and closing cabin doors, especially for Ryanair, and the other carriers that don't use the jetway stands, which give some protection, if the stand is remote, or has no jetway, above a certain speed, there is the risk of damage to the doors, or the crew being physically blown out of the aircraft when trying to control the doors.

At this stage, all you can do is contact the airline to ask them if they are anticipating any disruptions, and they may not know yet if there will be issues on Saturday.

There is also the possible issue that problems on Friday may result in aircraft not being where they are supposed to be, which can disrupt early morning services.
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02-12-2015, 14:20   #13
 
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Friday evening looking windy on the 06Z GFS. Probably a bit weaker than Barney for inland areas, but a longer period of strong winds and covering a wider area than on Nov 17th.


Is the time on these charts CET ? i.e. the above is showing 90-100km/h gusts in the Dublin area at 6pm Irish time ?
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02-12-2015, 14:46   #14
maquiladora
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Is the time on these charts CET ? i.e. the above is showing 90-100km/h gusts in the Dublin area at 6pm Irish time ?
Yes thats 6pm here. 100-110 km/h gusts possible there, but of course it may turn out to be weaker than that and local topography has to be taken into account. It's just an estimate.
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02-12-2015, 15:23   #15
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ICON showing gusts up to 70 knots on the west coast Friday night.

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