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Cold discussion 18th Jan onward - cold for at least 5 more days, some snow

  • 18-01-2015 4:43pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Hi guys. A brand new thread to discuss the continuing below average and cold period of weather and continuing potential snow risks. Here are the key points for the coming week or so.
    • Next 5 days at least very cold

    • Very low night time minima (sub -6 c lows inland most nights)
    • Daytime temperatures staying in low single figures
    • Mostly dry through the week
    • Frost and ice most nights
    • Snow in places Monday night and Tuesday night
    • Ulster and north Connaught, higher ground in Leinster most at risk
    • Wintry showers at times in the northwest and briefly along east coast midweek
    • Milder weather may break through by Sunday
    • High degree of uncertainty and volatility in 4 - 6 day forecast range, forecast will evolve

    And off we go, again:)


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    Kermit I admire and thank you for all your hard work over the last week or so with the threads and posts but do we really need another cold spell thread?. we already have two threads, the general snow lovers thread and one for the upcoming days cold and snow....will this thread really add anything extra, there is a danger that some important posts from the likes of yourself and maq and mt will be lost somewhere in the pile.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    howlinwolf wrote: »
    Kermit I admire and thank you for all your hard work over the last week or so with the threads and posts but do we really need another cold spell thread?. we already have two threads, the general snow lovers thread and one for the upcoming days cold and snow....will this thread really add anything extra, there is a danger that some important posts from the likes of yourself and maq and mt will be lost somewhere in the pile.

    Howlinwolf, Lumi suggested a new event thread. I guess the other thread will be locked. Probably too long and unwieldy. Wanted to wait for the 12z GFS/UKMO. Tocky the one similarity with 2010 and other long cold snaps is that the model forecast return to milder weather tends to get pushed back.


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    Howlinwolf, Lumi suggested a new event thread. I guess the other thread will be locked. Probably too long and unwieldy. Wanted to wait for the 12z GFS/UKMO.



    ahh ok. I suppose that makes sense, try to keep it up to date. again thanks for all the input lately.


  • Registered Users Posts: 605 ✭✭✭ffarrell7


    I am certain of snow falling away from the east coast...especially west Dublin and higher areas of South Dublin..tomorrow is supposed to be colder as well....it may be wet snow but snow it will be....even the weather forecast is confident if snowfall in eastern areas and quite heavy.....but I agree ....on the coast from arklow to Drogheda it could be marginally....sleet or a mix of rain and snow...


  • Registered Users Posts: 972 ✭✭✭mallards


    There was a good thaw in Tyrone today but still a lot of snow on the ground.

    20150118_133514_zpsdw4j6yao.jpg

    20150118_133341_zpsjgb6yg7d.jpg

    20150118_115033_zpsrvugwccu.jpg

    20150118_133352_zpsfqmgqsov.jpg

    20150118_114700_zpsabvpteo1.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    I love these photos with dogs in them. Someone always comes on to say lovely dogs... They be lovely, but they are in the way if the snow :)

    Not hopeful for Dublin for snow at sea lvl. Think we may be the wrong side of marginal. But I dont think the cold snap will shift too easily. We may end up with a east flow from a french low. Although Europe is not as cold as we'd like, but it is colder than the Atlantic


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    STATUS YELLOW

    Low Temperature Warning for Ireland
    Cold tonight with lowest temperatures of -1 to -5 degrees C leading to severe frost. Untreated road surfaces and paths will accumulate ice, becoming very slippy and dangerous. Patches of freezing fog may also occur.

    Issued:Sunday 18 January 2015 12:00
    Valid:Sunday 18 January 2015 12:00 to Monday 19 January 2015 10:00

    http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,805 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    Lovely dogs... :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    BBC forecast said temps could get as low as -10C over snow fields in Northern Ireland tonight, still widespread snow across most of Ulster this afternoon going by the MODIS sat image so a good chance it'll be the coldest night of the winter so far


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Sligo wont be seen any snow I doubt.

    Its much less cold overall.

    Snow on hills and ulster this week


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Just a quick map on tomorrow night's snow potential before I head out.

    Yellow being a sleety mix and purple being snow .
    335566.jpg

    I'd love to be wrong and that all the areas get snow though :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,065 ✭✭✭Mech1


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Just a quick map on tomorrow night's snow potential before I head out.

    Yellow being a sleety mix and purple being snow .
    335566.jpg

    I'd love to be wrong and that all the areas get snow though :rolleyes:

    Pity RTE didnt employ you, much more in the picture now!

    1st weather chart I understand!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,065 ✭✭✭Mech1


    [IMG][/img]snowrisk.jpg

    preferred chart


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,145 ✭✭✭Pwindedd


    Tanks Ian. Whilst I'm ever the dreamer, a healthy slice of reality never goes amiss. But I'm secretly hoping your wrong too, what with being located slap bang in middle of that yellow blob on t'coast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7 Shmah


    I'm with Mech on this one!

    Signed up to say thanks to all the posters who share their knowledge on these forums, been lurking quite a while, enjoying learning from ye all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Mech1 wrote: »
    [IMG][/img]snowrisk.jpg

    preferred chart
    Is it just me or its there something a little 'ODD' about that chart 😉


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,239 ✭✭✭Macy0161


    Countryfile forecast didn't give much for tomorrow into Tuesday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,065 ✭✭✭Mech1




  • Registered Users Posts: 598 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Mech1 wrote: »

    AWESOME!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,167 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    Mech1 wrote: »
    [IMG][/img]snowrisk.jpg

    preferred chart

    Chicken Pox?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    The 12z high res doesn't show much intensity in that rain/sleet/snow tomorrow night :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    GFS 12z detailed forecast for early hours of Tuesday.

    Dublin City:
    http://www.meteopt.com/modelos/meteogramas/gfs.php?lat=53.34&lon=-6.27&lang=en&type=txt&units=m

    Snow line anywhere between 100 and 300 mt presumably. Would expect wet snow/sleet/rain mix at low levels with accumulations above 200/250 mt. Precipitation heavier closer to the coast also. Interesting tool, even though gfs usually overestimates 2m temperatures: http://www.meteopt.com/modelos/meteogramas/


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    What brand of moron trys to film and drive in those conditions, or any in fact. Spanner.


  • Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭Victor Meldrew


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    What brand of moron trys to film and drive in those conditions, or any in fact. Spanner.

    Same brand as goes on a motorway on empty.

    That it is a RWD car (BMW) would make most people want both hands and all of your brain on the job too.

    back to tonight, we've gone from 4c to 0c in less than 3 hrs in Dublin, which is a more agressive cool down than last night.

    And does Met.ie always display 0c as no temperature?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,065 ✭✭✭Mech1


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    What brand of moron trys to film and drive in those conditions, or any in fact. Spanner.

    Just as well its not my video :D

    And I totally agree.


  • Registered Users Posts: 541 ✭✭✭weatherfiend


    sparrowcar wrote: »
    Lovely dogs... :)

    Ha ha ha!! Sorry but have to laugh!! Seriously lovely dog tho😉


  • Registered Users Posts: 541 ✭✭✭weatherfiend


    irish1967 wrote: »
    Is it just me or its there something a little 'ODD' about that chart 😉

    Brilliant 😣


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Ian if you could mov that purple patch down over Newbridge I would be a happy lad :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    What brand of moron trys to film and drive in those conditions, or any in fact. Spanner.

    Viewing that video, I have a suspicion that a head mounted camera may have been used.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The charts are woeful at the moment

    Too mild for decent snow and yet feeling chilly throughout.

    By this time next week most will have seen little or no snow and we'll be moving into the last week of January


This discussion has been closed.
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