Cold discussion 18th Jan onward - cold for at least 5 more days, some snow

Kermit.de.frog

Hi guys. A brand new thread to discuss the continuing below average and cold period of weather and continuing potential snow risks. Here are the key points for the coming week or so.

• Next 5 days at least very cold
  
  
• Very low night time minima (sub -6 c lows inland most nights)
  
• Daytime temperatures staying in low single figures
  
• Mostly dry through the week
  
• Frost and ice most nights
  
• Snow in places Monday night and Tuesday night
  
• Ulster and north Connaught, higher ground in Leinster most at risk
  
• Wintry showers at times in the northwest and briefly along east coast midweek
  
• Milder weather may break through by Sunday
  
• High degree of uncertainty and volatility in 4 - 6 day forecast range, forecast will evolve

And off we go, again:)

howlinwolf

Kermit I admire and thank you for all your hard work over the last week or so with the threads and posts but do we really need another cold spell thread?. we already have two threads, the general snow lovers thread and one for the upcoming days cold and snow....will this thread really add anything extra, there is a danger that some important posts from the likes of yourself and maq and mt will be lost somewhere in the pile.

Kermit.de.frog

howlinwolf wrote: »

Kermit I admire and thank you for all your hard work over the last week or so with the threads and posts but do we really need another cold spell thread?. we already have two threads, the general snow lovers thread and one for the upcoming days cold and snow....will this thread really add anything extra, there is a danger that some important posts from the likes of yourself and maq and mt will be lost somewhere in the pile.

Howlinwolf, Lumi suggested a new event thread. I guess the other thread will be locked. Probably too long and unwieldy. Wanted to wait for the 12z GFS/UKMO. Tocky the one similarity with 2010 and other long cold snaps is that the model forecast return to milder weather tends to get pushed back.

howlinwolf

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Howlinwolf, Lumi suggested a new event thread. I guess the other thread will be locked. Probably too long and unwieldy. Wanted to wait for the 12z GFS/UKMO.

ahh ok. I suppose that makes sense, try to keep it up to date. again thanks for all the input lately.

ffarrell7

I am certain of snow falling away from the east coast...especially west Dublin and higher areas of South Dublin..tomorrow is supposed to be colder as well....it may be wet snow but snow it will be....even the weather forecast is confident if snowfall in eastern areas and quite heavy.....but I agree ....on the coast from arklow to Drogheda it could be marginally....sleet or a mix of rain and snow...

mallards

There was a good thaw in Tyrone today but still a lot of snow on the ground.

Nabber

I love these photos with dogs in them. Someone always comes on to say lovely dogs... They be lovely, but they are in the way if the snow

Not hopeful for Dublin for snow at sea lvl. Think we may be the wrong side of marginal. But I dont think the cold snap will shift too easily. We may end up with a east flow from a french low. Although Europe is not as cold as we'd like, but it is colder than the Atlantic

Kermit.de.frog

STATUS YELLOW

Low Temperature Warning for Ireland
Cold tonight with lowest temperatures of -1 to -5 degrees C leading to severe frost. Untreated road surfaces and paths will accumulate ice, becoming very slippy and dangerous. Patches of freezing fog may also occur.

Issued:Sunday 18 January 2015 12:00
Valid:Sunday 18 January 2015 12:00 to Monday 19 January 2015 10:00

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

sparrowcar

Lovely dogs...

Harps

BBC forecast said temps could get as low as -10C over snow fields in Northern Ireland tonight, still widespread snow across most of Ulster this afternoon going by the MODIS sat image so a good chance it'll be the coldest night of the winter so far

pauldry

Sligo wont be seen any snow I doubt.

Its much less cold overall.

Snow on hills and ulster this week

Iancar29

Just a quick map on tomorrow night's snow potential before I head out.

Yellow being a sleety mix and purple being snow .


I'd love to be wrong and that all the areas get snow though :rolleyes:

Mech1

Iancar29 wrote: »

Just a quick map on tomorrow night's snow potential before I head out.

Yellow being a sleety mix and purple being snow .


I'd love to be wrong and that all the areas get snow though :rolleyes:

Pity RTE didnt employ you, much more in the picture now!

1st weather chart I understand!

Mech1

[IMG][/img]

preferred chart

Pwindedd

Tanks Ian. Whilst I'm ever the dreamer, a healthy slice of reality never goes amiss. But I'm secretly hoping your wrong too, what with being located slap bang in middle of that yellow blob on t'coast.

Shmah

I'm with Mech on this one!

Signed up to say thanks to all the posters who share their knowledge on these forums, been lurking quite a while, enjoying learning from ye all.

irish1967

Mech1 wrote: »

[IMG][/img]

preferred chart

Is it just me or its there something a little 'ODD' about that chart 😉

Macy0161

Countryfile forecast didn't give much for tomorrow into Tuesday.

Mech1

We need more of this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAiLORbx_7A

Captain Snow

Mech1 wrote: »

We need more of this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAiLORbx_7A

AWESOME!!!

Fr_Dougal

Mech1 wrote: »

[IMG][/img]

preferred chart

Chicken Pox?

Villain

The 12z high res doesn't show much intensity in that rain/sleet/snow tomorrow night

patneve2

GFS 12z detailed forecast for early hours of Tuesday.

Dublin City:
http://www.meteopt.com/modelos/meteogramas/gfs.php?lat=53.34&lon=-6.27&lang=en&type=txt&units=m

Snow line anywhere between 100 and 300 mt presumably. Would expect wet snow/sleet/rain mix at low levels with accumulations above 200/250 mt. Precipitation heavier closer to the coast also. Interesting tool, even though gfs usually overestimates 2m temperatures: http://www.meteopt.com/modelos/meteogramas/

Larbre34

What brand of moron trys to film and drive in those conditions, or any in fact. Spanner.

Victor Meldrew

Larbre34 wrote: »

What brand of moron trys to film and drive in those conditions, or any in fact. Spanner.

Same brand as goes on a motorway on empty.

That it is a RWD car (BMW) would make most people want both hands and all of your brain on the job too.

back to tonight, we've gone from 4c to 0c in less than 3 hrs in Dublin, which is a more agressive cool down than last night.

And does Met.ie always display 0c as no temperature?

Mech1

Larbre34 wrote: »

What brand of moron trys to film and drive in those conditions, or any in fact. Spanner.

Just as well its not my video

And I totally agree.

weatherfiend

sparrowcar wrote: »

Lovely dogs...

Ha ha ha!! Sorry but have to laugh!! Seriously lovely dog tho😉

weatherfiend

irish1967 wrote: »

Is it just me or its there something a little 'ODD' about that chart 😉

Brilliant 😣

pistolpetes11

Ian if you could mov that purple patch down over Newbridge I would be a happy lad :cool:

Tactical

Larbre34 wrote: »

What brand of moron trys to film and drive in those conditions, or any in fact. Spanner.

Viewing that video, I have a suspicion that a head mounted camera may have been used.

JanuarySnowstor

The charts are woeful at the moment

Too mild for decent snow and yet feeling chilly throughout.

By this time next week most will have seen little or no snow and we'll be moving into the last week of January

Nabber

I'm interested to see how long that low hangs over Europe. With the proper mixing from Russian high we could drop back day time negative tepretures.

Pangea

BBC Ni newsline there showed footage from Omagh Co.Tyrone, some amount of snow there yet.

Bootros Bootros

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The charts are woeful at the moment

Too mild for decent snow and yet feeling chilly throughout.

By this time next week most will have seen little or no snow and we'll be moving into the last week of January

Like most winters. In fact it's been ( and will continue) to be wintrier than most.

Baggy Trousers

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The charts are woeful at the moment

Too mild for decent snow and yet feeling chilly throughout.

By this time next week most will have seen little or no snow and we'll be moving into the last week of January

Head for the hills, there's loads up there.

smallwonder

Hail showers here. The roads will be fun in the morning I reckon!

Gonzo

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The charts are woeful at the moment

Too mild for decent snow and yet feeling chilly throughout.

By this time next week most will have seen little or no snow and we'll be moving into the last week of January

despite this winter seeming a bit cooler and far less stormy than last winter, this winter is running almost neck to neck with last winter for lack of snow and all over dissapointment (at least in the majority of Leinster). It's basically crunch time now with just 5 to 6 weeks to save this winter.
It can still be saved, we've had epic snowfalls in February before.

Harps

Gonzo wrote: »

despite this winter seeming a bit cooler and far less stormy than last winter, this winter is running almost neck to neck with last winter for lack of snow and all over dissapointment (at least in the majority of Leinster). It's basically crunch time now with just 5 to 6 weeks to save this winter.
It can still be saved, we've had epic snowfalls in February before.

Most of Ulster has had a full week of lying snow now with much of Connaught and Munster at least seeing some snowfall and even parts of Leinster have had lying snow. Did most people even see a snowflake through the whole of last winter? There's more to the country than the east coast

I feel your pain having not seen a single snowflake since two years ago but by Irish standards the current spell isn't a bad effort

Nabber

Everyone knows east coast snow is better.

I think the east will see lying snow at sea lvl. Might be short lived. But we are set to stay cold for a few more days. Cant speculate any further. In December the consensus was westerly Atlantic mild muck. But having seen -8 uppers stretch across the Atlantic, who knows what can happen. Too much variables for those super computers. I think this winter has been great so far. Has had a bit of everything bar an easterly.

The_Valeyard

Is it really bad I'm hoping for heavy snow like we had a couple of years ago?

acassells80

Clear skies on East Coast tonight . When is Dublin likely to get snow if any?

bb1234567

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Is it really bad I'm hoping for heavy snow like we had a couple of years ago?

That kinda hoping will probably get you hurt

pauldry

Charts may not look good at present but they keep changing so you never know

Most of jet seems to be over ireland than south of it but id say some of the coldest weather of the winter will be this week n then back to mild cold mild cold of pre january

Smidge

Nabber wrote: »

Everyone knows east coast snow is better.

I think the east will see lying snow at sea lvl. Might be short lived. But we are set to stay cold for a few more days. Cant speculate any further. In December the consensus was westerly Atlantic mild muck. But having seen -8 uppers stretch across the Atlantic, who knows what can happen. Too much variables for those super computers. I think this winter has been great so far. Has had a bit of everything bar an easterly.

Sounds like someone is trying to start a rap battle..........except with snow

Pangea

East is best of course, East Donegal that is...

Pangea

Smidge wrote: »

Sounds like someone is trying to start a rap battle..........except with snow

Or without snow in their case. *leaves mic on the ground

lucernarian

Harps wrote: »

Most of Ulster has had a full week of lying snow now with much of Connaught and Munster at least seeing some snowfall and even parts of Leinster have had lying snow. Did most people even see a snowflake through the whole of last winter? There's more to the country than the east coast

I feel your pain having not seen a single snowflake since two years ago but by Irish standards the current spell isn't a bad effort

Ah he's allowed to be disappointed as many posters from Cork have been in the past! Though Cork has historically been a bad place to wait for snowfall so perhaps their need is more understandable

As for forecasts... Monday night looks touch and go on the 18z when it looked a little more safe on the 12z. But it comes with more precipitation though. My family are a little higher up at 150 metres in Louth and I suspect it will be a toss up. Could well fall as snow for most of the duration while not actually sticking.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/18/basis18/ukuk/th85/15012003_1818.gif
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/18/basis18/ukuk/prec/15012003_1818.gif

TireeTerror

I drove up to the Mournes yesterday just to see some snow. I forgot my camera though, which was stupid.

It was very busy up. The feeling and the smile spreading across my face as I went through Hilltown and up into the hills, the snow rising on both sides, just a wonderful joyful thing the snow. LOVE IT!

Graces7

I think it was Robert Browning who said there are two kinds of people. One who says " Good morning, God" and the other, "Good God! Morning!" I was the former until one of the cats woke me with yelling in my ear and my warm body hit the cold air.... Knew it was going to be bad as when I went to toilet the dogs at nightfall ( they sleep in the extension with their own front door) I was met with a total stunned silence that meant ARE YOU CRAZY! They refused to budge...It is bitter, brazen stunningly COLD. The met site does not even have the temp for Kerry at the top..This is a grand house, renovated with all the water pipes inside and its own well so grand. I see no let up today.. ah well, we survived the other winters and we will this one. Grand SO!

LEIN

Low of -1.2C in Greystones so far.

Villain

Low of -6.2c