Cold discussion 18th Jan onward - cold for at least 5 more days, some snow

patneve2

00Z run has uppers of -3.6, 529 DAM and approx 6mm of precipitation over S. Dublin early hours of the morning.

http://www.meteopt.com/modelos/meteogramas/gfs.php?lat=53.27&lon=-6.19&lang=en&type=txt&units=m

lucernarian

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Was looking at short term models just now trying to make an argument why it could snow widely at low levels tonight instead of in northern (and northern central at that) areas as the models suggest. On current model predictions its a close run thing but everywhere south of, say, Mayo to Louth line, loses out on a few counts as we are the wrong side of uppers (-4's generally, need to be at least 2 degrees lower I'd say), thickness (534 generally, needs to be lower than 528 usually) and dew points (1 or 2 in most places, need to be 0 or less I'd have thought). Odds against so but lets see what the 6z charts say in a while. At the mo Wednesday looks a slightly better bet for most.

Having said all of that higher parts of the East and the inland northern areas are definitely looking good for some snow tonight as things stand.

You should check the charts I posted earlier. The 850 hPa thickness chart is a better estimate of snow than the 500 hPa line by using the 130 hPa line though in this case I would say it restricts snow to higher ground.

Anyway the Euro4 and HIRLAM are the models to go for now? I can see the 00z graphics currently and for any general downward trend for dewpoints, precipitation is reduced. I wonder if any slightly more active blocking can be had than predicted, like the "warm" front around 4th Dec 2010. That was a narrow band of snow and sleet that made its way very slowly across the country.

Macy0161

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Latest BBC 24 graphics there presennted by Carol Kirkwood,based on Euro 4 makes this a high ground event only in Ulster and a snow to rain in connaught with some on the Wicklow mtns and the galtee's
Probably a fair assessment

Any guestimate on the snow line, WB? Hoping for 200m, but these things have been tending to be 250m plus in recent years...

WheatenBriar

Macy0161 wrote: »

Any guestimate on the snow line, WB? Hoping for 200m, but these things have been tending to be 250m plus in recent years...

If I was a betting man I'd say 250 mtrs+ Dublin area with that light precipitation now and projected wind direction
I've clouded over here now and still no breeze
Still 1c air dp -2
Precipitation not due until late evening though so probably a good bit warmer every where by then if winds are S or SE

LordNorbury

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Dublin mountains yesterday...-2 degrees at 11.00 and snow snow falling....lots of ice especially....

Is that at the gates to start the walk up to Kippure?

munsterlegend

WheatenBriar wrote: »

If I was a betting man I'd say 250 mtrs+ Dublin area with that light precipitation now and projected wind direction
I've clouded over here now and still no breeze
Still 1c air dp -2
Precipitation not due until late evening though so probably a good bit warmer every where by then if winds are S or SE

still 0 here and dp of -1. surprised its still that cold here.

Rebelbrowser

lucernarian wrote: »

You should check the charts I posted earlier. The 850 hPa thickness chart is a better estimate of snow than the 500 hPa line by using the 130 hPa line though in this case I would say it restricts snow to higher ground.

Anyway the Euro4 and HIRLAM are the models to go for now? I can see the 00z graphics currently and for any general downward trend for dewpoints, precipitation is reduced. I wonder if any slightly more active blocking can be had than predicted, like the "warm" front around 4th Dec 2010. That was a narrow band of snow and sleet that made its way very slowly across the country.

Thanks. In terms of 6z charts, I thought that euro 4 was every 6 hours but am I wrong? Not updated yet anyway even if so....

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

still 0 here and dp of -1. surprised its still that cold here.

On yr.no 0z it never has temps going above 2 degrees in Dublin area (3pm is the warmest time it shows). It is even colder either side of this time wise....

Rock Lesnar

Frost still hasn't cleared here even in the sun, feels baltic to

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On yr.no 0z it never has temps going above 2 degrees in Dublin area (3pm is the warmest time it shows). It is even colder either side of this time wise....

very cloudy here but i suppose the precipitation will be modified by the south/se breeze as was mentioned earlier.

WheatenBriar

LordNorbury wrote: »

Is that at the gates to start the walk up to Kippure?

If it is,it's co Wicklow he's in there

DOCARCH

WheatenBriar wrote: »

If it is,it's co Wicklow he's in there

True...but the summit of Kippure is on the Dublin/Wicklow border...the snowier side being the Dublin side (no doubt).

A lot of high level cloud here now with watery sunshine. -0.5c atm.

Stealthfins

Cloud rolling into from the west of Clare.
The Frost in East Clare not moving at all at all.
Think im frost but :-)

WheatenBriar

DOCARCH wrote: »

True...but the summit of Kippure is on the Dublin/Wicklow border...the snowier side being the Dublin side (no doubt).

A lot of high level cloud here now with watery sunshine. -0.5c atm.

Ah we've enough mountains, we're willing to share

The12thMan

nothing yet in west cork

http://www.digitalforge.ie/wpwww/2011/10/covering-west-cork-and-beyond/

DOCARCH

Stealthfins wrote: »

Think im frost but :-)

I know the feeling...sometimes I think I'm snow!

munsterlegend

The12thMan wrote: »

nothing yet in west cork

http://www.digitalforge.ie/wpwww/2011/10/covering-west-cork-and-beyond/

cool link thanks

Oscar Bravo

Air lingus on approach to knock "it's quite white around here", atc "yep and more snow on the way let's hope it won't be sticking "

Oscar Bravo

Snow certain for knock

Oscar Bravo

Www.liveatc.net just type EIKN in, quite with flights for the afternoon but this evenings 1900 arrival from Stansted could be interesting

munsterlegend

Further hazy sunshine in eastern areas, but frost will return there soon after dark. Cloudier elsewhere with outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow developing this afternoon and evening in much of Munster and Connacht. Highest temperatures only 1 to 4 degrees Celsius generally, but rising to between 5 and 7 degrees along the west coast eventually. Moderate, locally fresh, southeast to south winds in the west, winds light and variable elsewhere.

Met Eireann update seems to have possibility of snow in Munster for a while presumably away from west coast.

HighLine

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Dublin Wicklow mountains yesterday

delthedriver

Tralee Bay, very cold, grey sky, no wind. A very occasional snowflake falling.

maquiladora

DP turning positive on the southwest coast.

RED L4 0TH

Some light snow just after starting here in Murrisk, West Mayo.

Reckless Abandonment

Let the battle begin. It's been a long time since we had a victory

Larbre34

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Let the battle begin. It's been a long time since we had a victory

It won't be today either. A very isolated upland event in the offing. Light cold rain will be the majority experience.

Reckless Abandonment

Larbre34 wrote: »

It won't be today either. A very isolated upland event in the offing. Light cold rain will be the majority experience.

lar, they are saying today's blue Monday. So don't be making it worse. Let us believe!!, so no more negative comments. at least till after work .

Graces7

Mountains to the north of me veiled in grey....very slightly sleety rain sweeping in now.. South Kerry

Graces7

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

lar, they are saying today's blue Monday. So don't be making it worse. Let us believe!!, so no more negative comments. at least till after work .

Realistic rather than negative