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01-07-2013, 01:29   #1
 
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Early July: Heatwave Potential

About time for a new thread I think, hopefully I don't jinx it..

Increasing signs over the past few days of another fine spell of weather from around the 5th of July onwards, still a few days away so of course being Ireland there's every chance it'll end up cool and wet but for the moment at least things are looking positive for some heat and hopefully plenty of sunshine

By the 5th we have high pressure building northwards



A few days later and we have the high centred over us which could lead to some very hot weather if it sticks around for a while

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01-07-2013, 05:56   #2
 
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About time for a new thread I think, hopefully I don't jinx it..

Increasing signs over the past few days of another fine spell of weather from around the 5th of July onwards, still a few days away so of course being Ireland there's every chance it'll end up cool and wet but for the moment at least things are looking positive for some heat and hopefully plenty of sunshine

By the 5th we have high pressure building northwards



A few days later and we have the high centred over us which could lead to some very hot weather if it sticks around for a while

Some good support from GFS too for hot weather at a similar timeframe
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01-07-2013, 08:32   #3
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What sort.of temps would we be looking at ?? Hot enough for a few thunderstorms?
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01-07-2013, 10:48   #4
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What sort.of temps would we be looking at ?? Hot enough for a few thunderstorms?
High 20's would be possible if that came off.
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01-07-2013, 11:00   #5
 
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Mentioned this earlier last week alas its not going to be as sustained as looked possible at the time.
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01-07-2013, 11:33   #6
 
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the 6z GFS is a rinse and repeat, showing again lovely big area of high pressure sitting on top of us next week. Really starting to firm up now, whether it will be a warm spell or something epic there's almost sure to be some decent weather in the offing.
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01-07-2013, 11:35   #7
 
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Mentioned this earlier last week alas its not going to be as sustained as looked possible at the time.
It looks even more promising today than it did before, what makes you think it won't be sustained? Both GFS and ECM are showing long-lasting period of high pressure dominated weather moving towards the reliable time-frame.
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01-07-2013, 11:58   #8
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Met eireann outlook-

Wednesday : There will be some patches of mist and drizzle about but overall it will be a mostly dry day with some bright or sunny spells. A mild, humid day with highest temperatures 17 to 21 degrees in moderate westerly winds.
It will cloud over later with rain moving in from the Atlantic Wednesday night in fresh southwesterly winds.

Thursday: The day will start cloudy with outbreaks of rain but clearing eastwards during the morning. Sunny spells Thursday afternoon and evening and dry apart from well scattered showers. Highest temperatures 15 to 20 degrees in fresh westerly winds.

Friday: A mild and mainly dry day with sunny spells. Highest temperatures 16 to 20 degrees in light to moderate southwesterly breezes.

Weekend: Mainly dry with sunny spells and light winds and becoming rather warm with temperatures rising to between 20 and 25 degrees in light breezes.
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01-07-2013, 13:37   #9
 
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It looks even more promising today than it did before, what makes you think it won't be sustained? Both GFS and ECM are showing long-lasting period of high pressure dominated weather moving towards the reliable time-frame.
Well I guess it depends on what you consider long lasting

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01-07-2013, 15:00   #10
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Those lows seem to be dropping down occasionally but the high seems to be pushing them on quite quickly.
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01-07-2013, 15:15   #11
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I am not getting the sun cream and BBQ stuff just yet. If is it anything like the winter charts they this can disappear at a moments notice.

I have seen this before and it usually turns to overcast, humid with misty rain.
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01-07-2013, 15:32   #12
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Well I guess it depends on what you consider long lasting

C'mon now Mike, you should know that charts 16 days out are not the most reliable.
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01-07-2013, 15:33   #13
 
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Well I guess it depends on what you consider long lasting

That's a chart for 16 days time! Nothing like that will verify I'm sure, and even if that were to verify there is still nice area of High Pressure close by.

The actual high itself is now showing itself establishing nicely on the 3 major models I follow, ECM, GFS and UKMO and is well supported by ensembles too. Let the high come into place before we worry about what occurs on July 17th.
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01-07-2013, 15:48   #14
 
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My idea of established is a few weeks, rather than a passing fancy
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01-07-2013, 16:04   #15
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My idea of established is a few weeks, rather than a passing fancy
Apart from being something that's very unlikely in this part of the world in the first place, that's also something that no model would be able to show realistically right now. We're looking at some potential warm/hot weather starting in around 7 days (which in itself is not in the reliable timeframe), so looking for when such a pattern might last for before breaking down is pointless at the moment.
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