Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact [email protected]

Early July: Heatwave Potential

  • 01-07-2013 12:29am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    About time for a new thread I think, hopefully I don't jinx it..

    Increasing signs over the past few days of another fine spell of weather from around the 5th of July onwards, still a few days away so of course being Ireland there's every chance it'll end up cool and wet but for the moment at least things are looking positive for some heat and hopefully plenty of sunshine

    By the 5th we have high pressure building northwards

    ECM1-120_zal0.GIF

    A few days later and we have the high centred over us which could lead to some very hot weather if it sticks around for a while

    ECM1-192_ssc0.GIF


«13456767

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Harps wrote: »
    About time for a new thread I think, hopefully I don't jinx it..

    Increasing signs over the past few days of another fine spell of weather from around the 5th of July onwards, still a few days away so of course being Ireland there's every chance it'll end up cool and wet but for the moment at least things are looking positive for some heat and hopefully plenty of sunshine

    By the 5th we have high pressure building northwards

    ECM1-120_zal0.GIF

    A few days later and we have the high centred over us which could lead to some very hot weather if it sticks around for a while

    ECM1-192_ssc0.GIF

    Some good support from GFS too for hot weather at a similar timeframe


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,460 ✭✭✭vickers209


    What sort.of temps would we be looking at ?? Hot enough for a few thunderstorms?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    vickers209 wrote: »
    What sort.of temps would we be looking at ?? Hot enough for a few thunderstorms?

    High 20's would be possible if that came off.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Mentioned this earlier last week alas its not going to be as sustained as looked possible at the time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    the 6z GFS is a rinse and repeat, showing again lovely big area of high pressure sitting on top of us next week. Really starting to firm up now, whether it will be a warm spell or something epic there's almost sure to be some decent weather in the offing.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    mike65 wrote: »
    Mentioned this earlier last week alas its not going to be as sustained as looked possible at the time.

    It looks even more promising today than it did before, what makes you think it won't be sustained? Both GFS and ECM are showing long-lasting period of high pressure dominated weather moving towards the reliable time-frame.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68 ✭✭Keith96


    Met eireann outlook-

    Wednesday : There will be some patches of mist and drizzle about but overall it will be a mostly dry day with some bright or sunny spells. A mild, humid day with highest temperatures 17 to 21 degrees in moderate westerly winds.
    It will cloud over later with rain moving in from the Atlantic Wednesday night in fresh southwesterly winds.

    Thursday: The day will start cloudy with outbreaks of rain but clearing eastwards during the morning. Sunny spells Thursday afternoon and evening and dry apart from well scattered showers. Highest temperatures 15 to 20 degrees in fresh westerly winds.

    Friday: A mild and mainly dry day with sunny spells. Highest temperatures 16 to 20 degrees in light to moderate southwesterly breezes.

    Weekend: Mainly dry with sunny spells and light winds and becoming rather warm with temperatures rising to between 20 and 25 degrees in light breezes.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    It looks even more promising today than it did before, what makes you think it won't be sustained? Both GFS and ECM are showing long-lasting period of high pressure dominated weather moving towards the reliable time-frame.

    Well I guess it depends on what you consider long lasting

    Rtavn3841.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Those lows seem to be dropping down occasionally but the high seems to be pushing them on quite quickly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    I am not getting the sun cream and BBQ stuff just yet. If is it anything like the winter charts they this can disappear at a moments notice.

    I have seen this before and it usually turns to overcast, humid with misty rain.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    mike65 wrote: »
    Well I guess it depends on what you consider long lasting

    Rtavn3841.png

    C'mon now Mike, you should know that charts 16 days out are not the most reliable. ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    mike65 wrote: »
    Well I guess it depends on what you consider long lasting

    Rtavn3841.png

    That's a chart for 16 days time! Nothing like that will verify I'm sure, and even if that were to verify there is still nice area of High Pressure close by.

    The actual high itself is now showing itself establishing nicely on the 3 major models I follow, ECM, GFS and UKMO and is well supported by ensembles too. Let the high come into place before we worry about what occurs on July 17th.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    My idea of established is a few weeks, rather than a passing fancy :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    mike65 wrote: »
    My idea of established is a few weeks, rather than a passing fancy :)

    Apart from being something that's very unlikely in this part of the world in the first place, that's also something that no model would be able to show realistically right now. We're looking at some potential warm/hot weather starting in around 7 days (which in itself is not in the reliable timeframe), so looking for when such a pattern might last for before breaking down is pointless at the moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    The latest 120 hour chart from UKMO seems to push the high further East and a low looks like it could swing up from the South, what do you guys think ???

    http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/profi/en/ukmo/ukmo.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Could not add the chart in the above post


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,946 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    .


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Aaaaah jez Met E just said now that the West and North coasts could see rain or drizzle over what was supposed to be a good weekend, thats it wont happen


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Off to the south-east of spain On Monday for 12 days, wouldnt ye know it would be the one time Ireland gets some nice potentially very warm weather!


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,322 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Aaaaah jez Met E just said now that the West and North coasts could see rain or drizzle over what was supposed to be a good weekend, thats it wont happen

    Was it Gerry ?


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 68 ✭✭Keith96


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Aaaaah jez Met E just said now that the West and North coasts could see rain or drizzle over what was supposed to be a good weekend, thats it wont happen

    It was always likely the west would see some drizzle because of the low pressure nearby.But by Monday the entire country will be fine so dont start giving up! :):):):)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    This morning's runs are the single best set of charts I have seen for heat since I started looking at these things roughly four years ago. If the GFS 0z were to come off Ireland would be experiencing temperatures in the mid to twenties countrywide as early as this weekend.

    Oh let it be so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,089 ✭✭✭pad199207


    More incredible charts this morning! If these are still showing the same tomo evening then I will be full on with this!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Sounds great guys - you know me, I'm a snow bunny, but I also love a bit of heat :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,975 ✭✭✭✭noodler


    Christ Mike, you have a seriously strict definition of 'lasting' considering you live in Ireland.

    I'd consider a full week's worth pretty amazing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,214 ✭✭✭nc6000


    Wow, this sounds good. How likely is it to happen?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Talking about 30 in the south/centre of England on the BBC already (hint - buy an umbrella)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Looking o so good for Ireland, high twenties a real possibility inland if the charts come to pass.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    For what it's worth the 0Z GFS shows temps reaching the mid 20's from around the 6th/7th and staying that way all the way during the rest of the run.

    Just for fun, at 300 hours, it's showing 24 at midnight.

    The op run was clearly at the upper end of the ensembles though so I wouldn't be surprised to see that go away again on the 06Z.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 878 ✭✭✭rainbowdash


    Before people start saying how great the postman clown from Donegal is I think it's important to point out that he did NOT predict a heat wave.


    "I'm not saying we'll have a heatwave, but we'll have a super summer."


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement