Early July: Heatwave Potential

Keith96

Thargor wrote: »

So do we think a hot Saturday and Sunday in Galway is pretty much nailed on yet? I need the €€€

Sunday should be fine but Saturday could be damp with drizzle.

dopolahpec

Fine, nay mighty fine charts again this morning, with high pressure just ballooning outwards after 72 hours with Ireland and the UK as the seeming centrepoint....

To say I am excited is an understatement...

This is my snowbunny moment...

We've had plenty winter wonderland since we last had a HOT JULY

BRING IT ON!!!

kkontour

From Simon Keeling on twitter

Huge area of Atlantic fog west of Europe (purple on map) not wanting to go anywhere quickly http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsgfsopazoresuksailingvis.php … #ukweathet @swisweather

Could cause problems?

dopolahpec

kkontour wrote: »

From Simon Keeling on twitter

Could cause problems?

That feature won't be associated with the high pressure which is set to develop over Ireland according to current model output

Harps

Even better GFS this morning, high pressure right out to the end of the run on the 19th with temperatures in the mid-high 20's every day. Just about the best model run I've ever seen for heat in my 4 years or so of watching them :cool:

delw

How accurate are the cloud cover charts on [URL=]www.weatheronline.co.uk[/URL] from 72+

Tom Cruises Left Nut

delw wrote: »

How accurate are the cloud cover charts on [URL=]www.weatheronline.co.uk[/URL] from 72+

I have always found them to be completely off the wall !

Auldloon

Bring on the heat!!!!!

Saganist

Wow. I dont look at this forum for a week or two and come back to the hottest forecast in years. Woop.

Time to prepare the BBQ. And book next week off from work

Cheerful Spring

Ken ring predicted this in Jan of 2013. Hes been accurate before, but of course the science crowd thought he was full of it.Who's laughing now.


http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/weather-guru-predicts-ongoing-winter-226678.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/promise-of-summer-sun-ridiculous-1.1070412

relaxed

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Ken ring predicted this in Jan of 2013. Hes been accurate before, but of course the science crowd thought he was full of it.Who's laughing now.


http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/weather-guru-predicts-ongoing-winter-226678.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/promise-of-summer-sun-ridiculous-1.1070412

A stopped clock is right twice a day, he didn't predict any heatwave in June.

Cheerful Spring

relaxed wrote: »

A stopped clock is right twice a day, he didn't predict any heatwave in June.

He said June, July and August would be largely dry months. With heatwave likely in the first half of July.

We got a week of nice weather in June, but i would not call it a heatwave. Couple of days were very hot, but most of the days were only 19 degrees.

snowstorm445

Looks set to be very warm in parts of the Midlands and Connacht if the GFS is anything to go by, it could climb to the high twenties in places. A bit cooler elsewhere but my main concern is with cloud cover. MÉ have hinted at coastal areas being cloudier than elsewhere, lets hope its only partly cloudy. There's nothing worse than a cloudy humid heatwave.

snowstorm445

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Ken ring predicted this in Jan of 2013. Hes been accurate before, but of course the science crowd thought he was full of it.Who's laughing now.


http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/weather-guru-predicts-ongoing-winter-226678.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/promise-of-summer-sun-ridiculous-1.1070412

The same was said about Madden. There is no scientifically sound way to predict the weather almost 6 months beforehand, it just isn't possible in this part of the world. It really doesn't matter if he has been lucky before, you can always take a wild guess and end up being right (sort of) but if his methods don't stand up to scrutiny the "science crowd" have no reason to take him seriously.

DOCARCH

relaxed wrote: »

....heatwave in June.

?

downwiththatsor

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Ken ring predicted this in Jan of 2013. Hes been accurate before, but of course the science crowd thought he was full of it.Who's laughing now.


http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/weather-guru-predicts-ongoing-winter-226678.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/promise-of-summer-sun-ridiculous-1.1070412

So confident is he in his abilities that he specifically says the last 10 days of April will be fine,

It wasnt fine where i was?

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03953&ndays=10&ano=2013&mes=04&day=30&hora=00&ord=REV&Send=Send

I take any Long Range forecasts with a grain of salt, next week does look very promising now in a very close to reliable time frame.

skinnyboy

How is it looking for waterford for friday??

Old diesel

relaxed wrote: »

A stopped clock is right twice a day, he didn't predict any heatwave in June.

Ken Ring is even having a go of predicting the 2014 weather in one of the linked articles by suggesting 2014 "won't be as good" :rolleyes:.

pad199207

Stunning shows from both GFS and ECM this evening! Proper Eye Candy

leahyl

Jean really holding back there on the forecast I thought! She said it would be warm on Sat and Sun but barely said anything about next week!

Thargor

Sounded like Saturday was going to be pure crap in Galway

pad199207

leahyl wrote: »

Jean really holding back there on the forecast I thought! She said it would be warm on Sat and Sun but barely said anything about next week!

Well its still only Wednesday :rolleyes:

snowstorm445

leahyl wrote: »

Jean really holding back there on the forecast I thought! She said it would be warm on Sat and Sun but barely said anything about next week!

Met Éireann generally hold back from forecasting more than 5 days in advance (probably because its just too risky forecasting that far ahead). Although the summary at the end did show nice sunny weather for Monday with temperatures in the mid-twenties.

vicwatson

Although the summary at the end did show nice sunny weather for Monday with temperatures in the mid-twenties.

Sure did, what's the likelihood of this good spell holding out until beyond the following weekend - say 12th onwards - if it all falls into place next week ?

Lucreto

Planning a BBQ this weekend but it is not looking the best. Saturday looks like it will be cloudy and Sunday doesn't look any better.

snowstorm445

vicwatson wrote: »

Sure did, what's the likelihood of this good spell holding out until beyond the following weekend - say 12th onwards - if it all falls into place next week ?

Far too early to tell, but high pressure systems are notoriously difficult to shift once they set up shop, so I would expect anticyclonic weather to stick around for a good while yet. Some recent models were showing a thundery (but still fairly warm) breakdown but I honestly wouldn't be looking that far ahead. For now (it could change) it looks like it will stay fairly settled for the forseeable future.

pauldry

Lucreto wrote: »

Planning a BBQ this weekend but it is not looking the best. Saturday looks like it will be cloudy and Sunday doesn't look any better.

It will be drizzly in the west Saturday but warm Sunday and Monday and then very warm for a couple of days before temps back off to 21 or 22

mike65

leahyl wrote: »

Jean really holding back there on the forecast I thought! She said it would be warm on Sat and Sun but barely said anything about next week!

Thought the same, given the nature of the pressure charts you'd think she'd have let rip with a "yeharrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!" its not that hard to predict weather with some confidence when an Azores HP drops anchor.

Storm 10

Did anyone see the picture that ME had on their forecast after the six news it showed a frozen waterfall , this is July not December whats wrong with them

vicwatson

Storm 10 wrote: »

Did anyone see the picture that ME had on their forecast after the six news it showed a frozen waterfall , this is July not December whats wrong with them

Are you sure it wasn't a slow shutter speed used when taking a picture of the waterfall, hence it gives a drag effect?