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12-08-2012, 08:23   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Wednesday Storm (15/08):MOD WARNING #626 High Winds + Heavy Rain/Flooding Likely

We are set to move into a period of increasingly unsettled weather.

Focus turns to midweek as a low pressure system develops to our south in the Bay of Biscay and moves north over Ireland through Wednesday evening (as progged at current time).

The system has potential to dump serious rainfall amounts and is likely to be thundery. Rainfall amounts of up to 100mm in some areas look possible.

Winds will also gust to 50 or 60mph.

More to follow........



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12-08-2012, 11:22   #2
 
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Slightly off topic but just discovered that Weatheronline now does 5 min radar sequence that covers this country as well which might come in very handy this week.

For some reason, the higher res Irish radar sequence still stuck on the 15 min

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-a...=euro&CREG=nir

but if you copy the image URL, and simply change the actual time on it in increments of 5, you will get each of the 5 min images

EG:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/daten...08/12/0900.gif

Change last number (time: 0900) to 0905

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/daten...08/12/0905.gif


Bit of a pain in the rump but still handy. I put together this short animation using the 5 min images that spans the period between midnight to 10am as an example.




Much smoother but interesting to note a small jerky effect in the returns that are covered by the Shannon radar; this is even more noticeable when the animation is played at even higher speeds. Would love to know what the cause of this is.


On topic, some amount of energy in the skies here at the moment which is being transported up towards Mayo at a rapid rate.

Last edited by Deep Easterly; 12-08-2012 at 11:26.
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12-08-2012, 15:57   #3
Sierra Oscar
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Is today's weather a warm up for what's to come? Flash flooding in Limerick at the moment, heaviest rain I have seen in a long time!

Seems that there is a lot of surface water around as it is so flooding is far more possible.

Last edited by Sierra Oscar; 12-08-2012 at 16:07.
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12-08-2012, 17:53   #4
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12-08-2012, 20:20   #5
 
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Due to sail to Cherbourg on Wed from Rosslare. Hate sailing at the calmest of times.I presume if this comes to pass the ferry will get hit by it (and the smell on the ferry will be atrociuos-most of it from me)
So the good people of the weather forum will offer a massive downgrade on Tues eve.....WONT YIS!

Last edited by bcmf; 12-08-2012 at 22:11.
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12-08-2012, 20:33   #6
leahyl
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Snip<>

Is that for Wed Ian or for tonight?

Last edited by Redsunset; 12-08-2012 at 21:04. Reason: removed quote to save bandwidth
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12-08-2012, 20:45   #7
Weylin
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Snip<>

total balderdash..............
MT says 60mm rain ,you say 100mm,for fecks sake stop making up rubbish/scare mongering.

Last edited by Redsunset; 12-08-2012 at 21:03. Reason: removed quote to save bandwidth
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12-08-2012, 20:51   #8
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Whether 60mm or 100mm...it is still a lot of rain in a short period and worth a thread.
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12-08-2012, 21:01   #9
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I have deleted a number of posts because they really added nothing to the thread.
Most were off topic and one word comments.
Please try to be more constructive in posting.
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13-08-2012, 01:07   #10
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Looks like a stiff precipitation topup will arrive on Friday after a relatively blustery but drier thursday.
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13-08-2012, 04:02   #11
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Ok lets look at this in more detail with current guidance. This is my own opinion and don't take it as gospel.

Let us first look at the coastal flooding risk

Current moon phase is a waning crescent = Good (Less high tide Height)

Strongest winds should hit south/south eastern parts come evening time and this happens to be High Tide.

Now Tidal surge is unknown but there could be a good push of water from the wind and the sea will be that bit higher anyway due to depression coming up from the south.

Conclusion
Keep an eye on any official coastal flood warnings.



Wind Strength

Now I was looking at 1987 storm development that hit southern England on October 15th and seeing if anything was similar.

It's the 975 just off the north west of Spain



And Wednesday 15th 2012



Now we see our 995 depression is much the same location however intensity at this stage is different by 20mb and that's alot. Colder polar air was making it's way into the rear of the 1987 storm and the temp difference and jet stream made it more intense.

1987 had a stronger jet stream. 220 km/h



Wednesdays 15th jet stream 170 km/h
She's still gonna pack a punch



Winds are usually strongest on south eastern quadrant of low pressure systems and this baby could hit south eastern Ireland for a short time with gusts of 45kts +



It should be a baby full of energy feeding off the warmer sea and the warm upper air before it dumps its contents on us. I think the rain part of storm could be very heavy at times and give some local flooding but push through fairly quickly for many and the winds lasting longer. Whatever happens its not going to be pleasant and I can just hear some of you already come Wednesday night, "Eh where's me Storm"


Remember this could very easy go in the bin as exact track of system will have a big say on who gets what. This is just an idea.Anyway that's my 2 pence worth.
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Last edited by Redsunset; 13-08-2012 at 04:24.
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13-08-2012, 09:05   #12
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Hi guys. I'm very busy lately and don't have much time to visit boards any more.

Just thought I'd drop into this thread to share some stuff from 0Z hi res HIRLAM model (that Met Eireann use).

At 60 hours the system looks more intense on HIRLAM than any of the global models. It has dropped 10mb in 10 hours on this model and looks to be still bombing at the 60 hour mark still well off the southwest coast.

Anyway this could all change again on the next run, just thought it was interesting.





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13-08-2012, 09:23   #13
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Good to have you back maquiladora
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13-08-2012, 11:30   #14
Redsunset
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A couple of posters BLATANTLY went out of their way this morning to try and troll the thread.
They were indeed very content to throw their nose up at the on thread warning.
They each received a three day ban and their posts removed.



PS
And we're only on page 1.

Last edited by Redsunset; 13-08-2012 at 11:48.
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13-08-2012, 12:59   #15
Redsunset
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ALMOST BOMBING

Ok latest model comparison time.

Hirlam has this baby dropping 21mb from 995mb to 976mb which is almost BOMBING, (Bombogenesis = dropping 24mb or more in 24 hours)
Wed 6pm

ECM 12 NOON

GFS Wed 6pm



NOAA track

Anyway still a long way off but this baby could be short and sharp.
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Last edited by Redsunset; 13-08-2012 at 13:18.
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