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Potential return of Severe Cold from mid February

  • 03-02-2011 10:34pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Output is beginning to lean towards a return to severe cold weather from the middle of this month.

    First signs began to surface in the last few days and tonights model runs have ran with the idea.

    It is still a long way out but the pattern seems to be gaining support with time i feel there are strong signs that this could occur.

    Now the real action is not anticipated to arrive until around Day 10 (Around February 13th). However important signals arrive towards Day 6/7.

    It is going to be a rollercoaster few days. However i believe it is deserved of a new thread as it is the best sign since late December i have seen for a cold outbreak.

    Here is tonights ECM at 216hr

    Recm2161.gif


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Latest GFS (18z) has just rolled out. Even in FI, it has the severe cold staying well away from GB & Ireland and instead plunging towards south eastern Europe.

    WC, I understand you used the word "potential" but my gut feeling is the models will revert to milder patterns for Ireland for mid Feb over the coming days. Also , I have just posted on a separate thread the Joe Bastardi has confirmed that the worst of the winter is now over for Ireland and the UK.

    gfs-1-252.png?18


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    When i saw the title i was sure this would be a darkman2 thread. . . :P


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    derekon wrote: »
    Latest GFS (18z) has just rolled out. Even in FI, it has the severe cold staying well away from GB & Ireland and instead plunging towards south eastern Europe.

    WC, I understand you used the word "potential" but my gut feeling is the models will revert to milder patterns for Ireland for mid Feb over the coming days. Also , I have just posted on a separate thread the Joe Bastardi has confirmed that the worst of the winter is now over for Ireland and the UK.

    gfs-1-252.png?18

    GFS has been flip flopping according to the lads over on NW

    ECM is showin the cold : but I dont know what way it will play out.

    146463.GIF


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    whether this happens or not, I certainly do not rely on Joe Bastardi for predictions, he's as changeable as the Irish weather. The fact that we are trending towards a cold solution makes me optimistic, but we'll see I guess :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭aboyro


    Recm2161.gif

    evelyn had that low pressure off the newfoundland coast at 937 by next thursday the 10th. thats a nice deep low, blocking high now and we'll have great surf on the west coast:D:D:D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    GFS has been flip flopping according to the lads over on NW

    ECM is showin the cold : but I dont know what way it will play out.

    146463.GIF


    The top image depicts the ECM run from midday yesterday for Sunday 13th February 2011.

    Now look at the bottom image which is the ECM run 12 hours later - a big difference!

    A major downgrade on cold for Britain & Ireland is noted on the later ECM run.

    -12oC upper 850 temps in Ireland have now been replaced by +4oC upper 850 temps. A 16oC swing in just 12 hours!!

    Some cold spell ! Major health warnings should be attached to models more than 4 days out. I also notice this morning on MT's forecast there was no mention of an upcoming severe cold spell (he had alluded to it yesterday). Downgrades all around I am afraid.


    ECM0-216.GIF?04-12


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    derekon wrote: »
    The top image depicts the ECM run from midday yesterday for Sunday 13th February 2011.

    Now look at the bottom image which is the ECM run 12 hours later - a big difference!

    A major downgrade on cold for Britain & Ireland is noted on the later ECM run.

    -12oC upper 850 temps in Ireland have now been replaced by +4oC upper 850 temps. A 16oC swing in just 12 hours!!

    Some cold spell ! Major health warnings should be attached to models more than 4 days out. I also notice this morning on MT's forecast there was no mention of an upcoming severe cold spell (he had alluded to it yesterday). Downgrades all around I am afraid.


    ECM0-216.GIF?04-12

    bit of an over reaction after one run, he there was one cold run no one would say attention to it. Wait and see what the trend is before calling it off! Although i agree that it doesn't look too likely, but for a few more stop before jumping to conclusions!


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Nothing to see here lads, Joe and Derek have spoken :p




  • Heres the latest Northern hemisphere snow cover picture.
    As you can see the prevailing southwesterlies off the atlantic,thanks to the jet stream's current position has evaporated Snow in Europe pretty much East to Poland and Denmark,where as the rest of the northern hemisphere is too far away to be affected by this.

    It would take a solid week of winds blowing from the East for the desired effect.
    For that you'd want a scandy hp of 1045 at least and preferably above 1050.
    1030 wouldn't cut the mustard.

    It's possible but only a chance that the waa heading up that way will bring on one that strong and have it stick there long enough to advect Russian cold out to Ireland.
    I repeat,you'd need a week.

    article-0-0D05489E000005DC-703_964x481.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Have a feeling its going to be dry a cool:(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 857 ✭✭✭Vudgie


    This all looks extremely unlikely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

    encouraging. they don't talk of a classic easterly, but if a potent easterly were to get going the east of ireland would of course be in business after a week or so. certainly it looks like the Atlantic will be winding down anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

    encouraging. they don't talk of a classic easterly, but if a potent easterly were to get going the east of ireland would of course be in business after a week or so. certainly it looks like the Atlantic will be winding down anyway.
    Certainly a step in the right direction there Nacho. :cool:

    Interesting photo above, Ireland is the most northerly place in the world at the moment not to have snow ,sometimes you just have to laugh at ourselves :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Looks like many of the Aleutian Islands have no snow too, so we're not complete losers!
    Met Office outlook is quite encouraging as they get the extreme cold at the end of November long before most.
    The 12z GFS ain't the most exciting run and the ensembles have been gradually warming up since yesterday, the latest ECM looks like a downgrade too:(
    Still, the models generally struggle the most when we have a split vortex and these kinda easterly feeds, so anything is possible now really, including the cold shown on yesterdays runs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 873 ✭✭✭alentejo


    Am i correct to think that Ireland / scotland are the most northerly areas in the planet which are not snow covered??:mad:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    alentejo wrote: »
    Am i correct to think that Ireland / scotland are the most northerly areas in the planet which are not snow covered??:mad:


    See above:

    Pangea wrote: »
    Certainly a step in the right direction there Nacho. :cool:

    Interesting photo above, Ireland is the most northerly place in the world at the moment not to have snow ,sometimes you just have to laugh at ourselves :D
    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    Looks like many of the Aleutian Islands have no snow too, so we're not complete losers!
    Met Office outlook is quite encouraging as they get the extreme cold at the end of November long before most.
    The 12z GFS ain't the most exciting run and the ensembles have been gradually warming up since yesterday, the latest ECM looks like a downgrade too:(
    Still, the models generally struggle the most when we have a split vortex and these kinda easterly feeds, so anything is possible now really, including the cold shown on yesterdays runs.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Pangea wrote: »
    Interesting photo above, Ireland is the most northerly place in the world at the moment not to have snow ,sometimes you just have to laugh at ourselves :D
    alentejo wrote: »
    Am i correct to think that Ireland / scotland are the most northerly areas in the planet which are not snow covered??:mad:

    Move!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    mike65 wrote: »
    Move!
    Im not complaining, just stating an interesting observation from the photo.
    alentejo wrote: »
    Am i correct to think that Ireland / scotland are the most northerly areas in the planet which are not snow covered??

    Scotland appears to have snow cover from that photo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    how are the models looking , please say good for serious snowage :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭desolate sun


    I have to say that ever since I found out what positive North Atlantic oscillation meant, I have been so depressed whenever I hear it. :(

    Negative, negative, negative... Maybe if we say it enough it might turn?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    I have to say that ever since I found out what positive North Atlantic oscillation meant, I have been so depressed whenever I hear it. :(

    Negative, negative, negative... Maybe if we say it enough it might turn?

    ha , sure is depressing alright :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Latest GFS upgrades snow potential again with GEM and JMA models following suit on a cold outbreak from late next weekend


  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Latest GFS upgrades snow potential again with GEM and JMA models following suit on a cold outbreak from late next weekend

    niiiice , cheers ;)




  • WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Latest GFS upgrades snow potential again with GEM and JMA models following suit on a cold outbreak from late next weekend
    mid jan 2007.
    An Easterly like this one appeared with full model agreement for about a week and then guess what...backtrack,backtrack and then it disappeared.

    It started appearing around the 10th and never arrived.
    By the 20th we were in full atlantic swing as usual.

    So beware modeled easterlies,a scandy high positioned wrong can bring in southerlies.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,582 ✭✭✭WalterMitty


    mid jan 2007.
    An Easterly like this one appeared with full model agreement for about a week and then guess what...backtrack,backtrack and then it disappeared.

    It started appearing around the 10th and never arrived.
    By the 20th we were in full atlantic swing as usual.

    So beware modeled easterlies,a scandy high positioned wrong can bring in southerlies.
    Boo!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Boo!

    He's trying to be realistic, and in all liklihood he will be right. But we can hope!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    mid jan 2007.
    So beware modeled easterlies,a scandy high positioned wrong can bring in southerlies.

    And thats what every model is showing this morning, amazing model agreement even past 192hrs, unfortunately there all showing mild.

    Ah well, there's always next year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    alentejo wrote: »
    Am i correct to think that Ireland / scotland are the most northerly areas in the planet which are not snow covered??:mad:
    Everywhere in the northern hemisphere is snow covered north of 45-50 degrees, not just this winter but every winter (except you know where due to the Gulf Stream) Those who moaned and whinged during the big freeze about "bad" weather and disruption should realize that locations at similar latitudes to us get months of lying snow and not days!

    Not another phantom Scandinavian high (groan) out in FI! :rolleyes: It looks like only a Greenland high can deliver these days


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,615 ✭✭✭GSF


    Everywhere in the northern hemisphere is snow covered north of 45-50 degrees, not just this winter but every winter (except you know where due to the Gulf Stream) Those who moaned and whinged during the big freeze about "bad" weather and disruption should realize that locations at similar latitudes to us get months of lying snow and not days!
    and rather than celebrate our uniqueness, all we hear is "why cant be be like everybody else!" Sheep!:D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Everything seems to have gone belly up today after everything looking so promising.


This discussion has been closed.
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