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03-02-2011, 22:34   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Potential return of Severe Cold from mid February

Output is beginning to lean towards a return to severe cold weather from the middle of this month.

First signs began to surface in the last few days and tonights model runs have ran with the idea.

It is still a long way out but the pattern seems to be gaining support with time i feel there are strong signs that this could occur.

Now the real action is not anticipated to arrive until around Day 10 (Around February 13th). However important signals arrive towards Day 6/7.

It is going to be a rollercoaster few days. However i believe it is deserved of a new thread as it is the best sign since late December i have seen for a cold outbreak.

Here is tonights ECM at 216hr

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03-02-2011, 22:47   #2
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Latest GFS (18z) has just rolled out. Even in FI, it has the severe cold staying well away from GB & Ireland and instead plunging towards south eastern Europe.

WC, I understand you used the word "potential" but my gut feeling is the models will revert to milder patterns for Ireland for mid Feb over the coming days. Also , I have just posted on a separate thread the Joe Bastardi has confirmed that the worst of the winter is now over for Ireland and the UK.

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03-02-2011, 23:08   #3
 
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When i saw the title i was sure this would be a darkman2 thread. . .
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03-02-2011, 23:45   #4
pistolpetes11
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Originally Posted by derekon View Post
Latest GFS (18z) has just rolled out. Even in FI, it has the severe cold staying well away from GB & Ireland and instead plunging towards south eastern Europe.

WC, I understand you used the word "potential" but my gut feeling is the models will revert to milder patterns for Ireland for mid Feb over the coming days. Also , I have just posted on a separate thread the Joe Bastardi has confirmed that the worst of the winter is now over for Ireland and the UK.

GFS has been flip flopping according to the lads over on NW

ECM is showin the cold : but I dont know what way it will play out.

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04-02-2011, 00:49   #5
 
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whether this happens or not, I certainly do not rely on Joe Bastardi for predictions, he's as changeable as the Irish weather. The fact that we are trending towards a cold solution makes me optimistic, but we'll see I guess
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04-02-2011, 01:26   #6
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evelyn had that low pressure off the newfoundland coast at 937 by next thursday the 10th. thats a nice deep low, blocking high now and we'll have great surf on the west coast

Last edited by aboyro; 04-02-2011 at 01:26. Reason: spelin'
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04-02-2011, 07:14   #7
derekon
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GFS has been flip flopping according to the lads over on NW

ECM is showin the cold : but I dont know what way it will play out.


The top image depicts the ECM run from midday yesterday for Sunday 13th February 2011.

Now look at the bottom image which is the ECM run 12 hours later - a big difference!

A major downgrade on cold for Britain & Ireland is noted on the later ECM run.

-12oC upper 850 temps in Ireland have now been replaced by +4oC upper 850 temps. A 16oC swing in just 12 hours!!

Some cold spell ! Major health warnings should be attached to models more than 4 days out. I also notice this morning on MT's forecast there was no mention of an upcoming severe cold spell (he had alluded to it yesterday). Downgrades all around I am afraid.


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04-02-2011, 08:03   #8
 
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The top image depicts the ECM run from midday yesterday for Sunday 13th February 2011.

Now look at the bottom image which is the ECM run 12 hours later - a big difference!

A major downgrade on cold for Britain & Ireland is noted on the later ECM run.

-12oC upper 850 temps in Ireland have now been replaced by +4oC upper 850 temps. A 16oC swing in just 12 hours!!

Some cold spell ! Major health warnings should be attached to models more than 4 days out. I also notice this morning on MT's forecast there was no mention of an upcoming severe cold spell (he had alluded to it yesterday). Downgrades all around I am afraid.


bit of an over reaction after one run, he there was one cold run no one would say attention to it. Wait and see what the trend is before calling it off! Although i agree that it doesn't look too likely, but for a few more stop before jumping to conclusions!
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04-02-2011, 11:40   #9
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Nothing to see here lads, Joe and Derek have spoken
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04-02-2011, 13:39   #10
 
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Heres the latest Northern hemisphere snow cover picture.
As you can see the prevailing southwesterlies off the atlantic,thanks to the jet stream's current position has evaporated Snow in Europe pretty much East to Poland and Denmark,where as the rest of the northern hemisphere is too far away to be affected by this.

It would take a solid week of winds blowing from the East for the desired effect.
For that you'd want a scandy hp of 1045 at least and preferably above 1050.
1030 wouldn't cut the mustard.

It's possible but only a chance that the waa heading up that way will bring on one that strong and have it stick there long enough to advect Russian cold out to Ireland.
I repeat,you'd need a week.

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04-02-2011, 13:44   #11
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Have a feeling its going to be dry a cool
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04-02-2011, 15:16   #12
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This all looks extremely unlikely.
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04-02-2011, 15:40   #13
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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

encouraging. they don't talk of a classic easterly, but if a potent easterly were to get going the east of ireland would of course be in business after a week or so. certainly it looks like the Atlantic will be winding down anyway.
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04-02-2011, 17:53   #14
Pangea
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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

encouraging. they don't talk of a classic easterly, but if a potent easterly were to get going the east of ireland would of course be in business after a week or so. certainly it looks like the Atlantic will be winding down anyway.
Certainly a step in the right direction there Nacho.

Interesting photo above, Ireland is the most northerly place in the world at the moment not to have snow ,sometimes you just have to laugh at ourselves
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04-02-2011, 18:58   #15
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Looks like many of the Aleutian Islands have no snow too, so we're not complete losers!
Met Office outlook is quite encouraging as they get the extreme cold at the end of November long before most.
The 12z GFS ain't the most exciting run and the ensembles have been gradually warming up since yesterday, the latest ECM looks like a downgrade too
Still, the models generally struggle the most when we have a split vortex and these kinda easterly feeds, so anything is possible now really, including the cold shown on yesterdays runs.
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