Potential return of Severe Cold from mid February

BLIZZARD7

I'm going to make a call tonight -


BIG upgrade in the morning, atleast 2 of the 3 main models will show an easterly inside +192hrs.



**HEALTH WARNING**

This is not to be taken as gospel and is only an amateur model forecast.

:D





Dan :cool:

pistolpetes11

Bloody love a cold spell now , sure herself tipped me on the shoulder tonight and said "that grass has grown a fair bit over the last few days , you might give it a cut if it's dry over the weekend "

On the positive side of things they seem happy with the runs over on NW .

delw

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Bloody love a cold spell now , sure herself tipped me on the shoulder tonight and said "that grass has grown a fair bit over the last few days , you might give it a cut if it's dry over the weekend "

On the positive side of things they seem happy with the runs over on NW .

maybe you should cut it before the next cold/freezing spell

Iancar29

Ah persume theres notin to tlk about here today ... not looking good........

Rebelbrowser

Netweather sounds pessimistic which isn't good! All could change yet though. There's serious cold out east - we just need to find a way to tap into it......................

dsmythy

The models seem all over the place at the moment. I guess we are in wait and see territory though my own gut instinct is that deepish depressions will make their marks but move north. Still great looking at the changes and updates and all.

thetonynator

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I'm going to make a call tonight -


BIG upgrade in the morning, atleast 2 of the 3 main models will show an easterly inside +192hrs.



**HEALTH WARNING**

This is not to be taken as gospel and is only an amateur model forecast.

:D





Dan :cool:

haven't seen the models but judging by the fact that its nearly 5p.m., i'm going to presume that this didn't happen. . . ?

ninebeanrows

ECM looks interesting tonight.

Developments are set rolling around T120hrs and we get here at T240 after a few potential snow events.

desolate sun

PRAYING FOR SNOW

oisingeogho

dont get your hopes up all will fail as usual

Redsunset

oisingeogho wrote: »

dont get your hopes up all will fail as usual

look while a word of caution is needed of not to get too excited yet.there really is no need for a comment like that.I feel your pain of so many let downs in the past but let's just see does the next e c m run follow suit.there is still some ironing to do but all i can say is thank god that wasn't the b o m run again that people were clinging to for hope.it's still all very encouraging so chin up.

NIALL D

redsunset wrote: »

look while a word of caution is needed of not to get too excited yet.there really is no need for a comment like that.I feel your pain of so many let downs in the past but let's just see does the next e c m run follow suit.there is still some ironing to do but all i can say is thank god that wasn't the b o m run again that people were clinging to for hope.it's still all very encouraging so chin up.

i agree , theres always chances of upgrades to pop up.. still a bit left in winter so anything could happen yet !!

Harps

Its the first time something's come up within a more reasonable timeframe so encouraging at least. Nothing to get excited about yet obviously

desolate sun

After being spoiled the last 2 winters (2009/10 and 2010) with magic snow and frost it feels like we are back to our usual Irish Winter of hoping and expecting the dregs of snow - sleety snow that lasts for an hour before rain washes it all away.

I fear this is what we'll get.

Sorry to be pessimistic. I'm normally a hopeless optimist but it seems that the lovely Scandinavian crazy winter wonderland is so far away now and we have the crap positive Atlantic and that horrible word 'mild' all around us now.

God I can't wait 9 or 10 months for snow. I want some now, please
Just for a week, and then I'll shut up and be happy

thetonynator

Watched met eireann weather after the 9 news, showed around tuesday a scandi high (round 1036) and a big low moving into the med (spain) which, in theory should give an easterly flow to us. Unfortunately, there was just a big mess in the middle of it instead of a lovely easterly flow, but that could change!!!

DarkJager

desolate sun wrote: »

After being spoiled the last 2 winters (2009/10 and 2010) with magic snow and frost it feels like we are back to our usual Irish Winter of hoping and expecting the dregs of snow - sleety snow that lasts for an hour before rain washes it all away.

I fear this is what we'll get.

Sorry to be pessimistic. I'm normally a hopeless optimist but it seems that the lovely Scandinavian crazy winter wonderland is so far away now and we have the crap positive Atlantic and that horrible word 'mild' all around us now.

God I can't wait 9 or 10 months for snow. I want some now, please
Just for a week, and then I'll shut up and be happy

No thanks. We've had more than enough of that satan fluff this winter. I don't think my sanity would last another 4 hour drive home because that **** decided to show up and ruin everything. Good riddance to it, and welcome back to our normal weather . Snow fetishists will just have to wait another 8 or 9 months.

NoodleMc

There it was - lying in the grass having been blown off in the wind - all week it lay on the grass - I looked at it longingly every trip to and from school with the kids - thinking - what a lovely sled that would make - but no I thought - no - if I bring it home - there will be no more snow - so I resisted the urge to pick it up and bring it home - I resisted and resisted - until - this morning I could resist no longer...

So now I have a huge bloodly Green election poster in my kitchen (please God let none of the neighbours have seen me bringing it home!). So we can be damn sure there will be no more snow this winter!

Why did I do it? Why?

NIALL D

sky news are showin snow for scotland and west of ireland on sunday , said mainly on higher ground.. :pac:

Harps

Even if it does snow on Sunday it'll just be something like we had here at the start of the week, just a slushy mess that'll start to melt as soon as it falls. Wasn't very pleasant

Latest gfs has nothing interesting on it, still only the ECM and BOM that are hinting at anything so I'm not getting my hopes up

NIALL D

argh we badly need some snow !
hopefully there will be some improvments in the morning...

BLIZZARD7

Ok -

I was WRONG about 2 of the 3 big models showing an easterly on the 00z's !

Quite the opposite happened actually! Didn't see that happening. Anyway some positive news this evening -

ECM 12z was a stunner, showing a very cold easterly developing, only one way it's going from +120hrs and that's cold! The ECM ensembles were brilliant aswell, very very different to the GFS which refuses to show an easterly and instead sticks a few hurricanes in the Atlantic just for fun.

I dont buy the GFS at all today, but neither do I totally go with the ECM 12z, it could go either way ATM. Generally the ECM is never wrong at this timeframe but the stubbornness of the GFS scares me a little bit. The UKMO usually indicates which model is right by siding with one of them but it's not really favouring either situation ATM. ALL of the lesser models have an easterly on the 12z's btw.

Anyway I'd love to say it will be resolved in the morning but I've being thinking that for 3 nights now!! Hopefully my call from last night was just 24 hours early.





Dan :cool:

desolate sun

Come on SNOW. Come back! All is forgiven!:)

zagmund

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Ok -
ECM 12z was a stunner, showing a very cold easterly developing, only one way it's going from +120hrs and that's cold! The ECM ensembles were brilliant aswell, very very different to the GFS which refuses to show an easterly and instead sticks a few hurricanes in the Atlantic just for fun.

If I understand this correctly, these threads are now about how the models develop over time as distinct from how the actual weather develops. It's like a discussion thread for weather derivatives. Never mind what the actual weather does, let's compare how the forecast changed from 144 hours out to 120 hours out. This isn't meant as a slag or a wind-up, but I'm just wondering am I understanding it correctly.

z

BLIZZARD7

zagmund wrote: »

If I understand this correctly, these threads are now about how the models develop over time as distinct from how the actual weather develops. It's like a discussion thread for weather derivatives. Never mind what the actual weather does, let's compare how the forecast changed from 144 hours out to 120 hours out. This isn't meant as a slag or a wind-up, but I'm just wondering am I understanding it correctly.

z

mmmm basically I am just trying to find a cold spell thats going to have an impact on Ireland. Yes we should be comparing forecasts and how they change from +144hrs to +120hrs. The best way to do this would be to compare today's ECM 00z with yesterday's, showing the difference in output over 24 hours, the same could be done for the other models. This is a great way for spotting trends.

So yes it's like what you said but I would discuss the actual weather if it was of interest to me, ie if there was cold and snow potential.

I think that's what your asking?





Dan :cool:

Elmer Blooker

DarkJager wrote: »

I don't think my sanity would last another 4 hour drive home because that **** decided to show up and ruin everything.

On "Liveline" they are discussing the extortionate rates that business people have to pay (and get nothing in return) in this country. One businessman described how senior management in a County Council (I wont name the Co Council) hired four wheel drive jeeps to get themselves through the snow and did nothing to clear the roads. I think the fact that complete self serving morons are running this country might explain the "disruption"

BEASTERLY

Why are ye saying this winter was ''pathetic'' compared to last year? Maybe you can point out were the severe cold was after 15th of Jan 2010? Or before 17th December 09? Last year we had 13(17th-29th, 31st-2nd, 5th-12th) days of lying snow here in total, this year it was 31(27th Nov-27th Dec), how is that ''pathetic'' as some have said?

Its a matter of fact that you wont get 3 months of cold in Ireland. This year was much snowier, and colder here anyway.

To sum it up: This winter will be remembered for monster snowfall. Last winter will be remembered for a good bit of snow but the lack of mild weather and a lot of meh conditions.

fizzycyst

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Why are ye saying this winter was ''pathetic'' compared to last year? Maybe you can point out were the severe cold was after 15th of Jan 2010? Or before 17th December 09? Last year we had 13(17th-29th, 31st-2nd, 5th-12th) days of lying snow here in total, this year it was 31(27th Nov-27th Dec), how is that ''pathetic'' as some have said?

Its a matter of fact that you wont get 3 months of cold in Ireland. This year was much snowier, and colder here anyway.

To sum it up: This winter will be remembered for monster snowfall. Last winter will be remembered for a good bit of snow but the lack of mild weather and a lot of meh conditions.

yeah, depends on where you're talking about though Beasterly. Yes Waterford got a few days of snow late November/early December, and yes we got lowish temps for most of the month, but nothing compared to most of the country, and iirc the temp in January dropped as low as December at one stage.

So basically, I WANT MORE SNOW!!!.............ok, I know we probably won't get it but we live in hope

btw, I'm not saying what we got was pathetic but it really tasted like more if ya know what I mean

fizzycyst

something akin to this would be nice

Harps

I'd take something like this myself




Its highly unlikely though that we'll get a significant nationwide snowfall any time soon, the north and to an extent the east can get snow quite easily but the south west needs a lot of luck to even get a few cm of snow.

BEASTERLY

fizzycyst wrote: »

yeah, depends on where you're talking about though Beasterly. Yes Waterford got a few days of snow late November/early December, and yes we got lowish temps for most of the month, but nothing compared to most of the country, and iirc the temp in January dropped as low as December at one stage.

So basically, I WANT MORE SNOW!!!.............ok, I know we probably won't get it but we live in hope

btw, I'm not saying what we got was pathetic but it really tasted like more if ya know what I mean

Good point, but I was talking about people saying the 09/10 winter was better. you would think from some posts here that last winter had 3 months of -15, it didn't. I mean what did waterford get last year? nothing if iirc.