Potential return of Severe Cold from mid February

Elmer Blooker

GSF wrote: »

and rather than celebrate our uniqueness, all we hear is "why cant be be like everybody else!" Sheep!:D

I've read this post several times and I have to admit I've no idea what you're talking about?

derekon

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I've read this post several times and I have to admit I've no idea what you're talking about? [/QUOTE

I think what GFS might be referring to is that at our latitude, Ireland should be snow covered during the winter. However, the Gulf Stream ensures this does not happen thanks to the mass of mild air it brings our way. Therefore, Ireland remains largely green during winter, thus "rendering" the island unique for its latitude

BEASTERLY

BEASTERLY wrote: »

And thats what every model is showing this morning, amazing model agreement even past 192hrs, unfortunately there all showing mild.

Ah well, there's always next year.

Well to be fair,thats one set of runs.
I mean what you deduce for one set of runs leading to everlasting cold should be the same as what you deduce from one set leading to everlasting mild.

Lets play this as a wait and see for the moment.It could be 2007 or just a flip flop.
The ukmo didn't mention an easterly,cold and snow in their outlook yesterday for the fun of it.
There must have been some probability and not just the tiny trend we were see'ing in near FI.

Iancar29

Deleted User wrote: »

Well to be fair,thats one set of runs.
I mean what you deduce for one set of runs leading to everlasting cold should be the same as what you deduce from one set leading to everlasting mild.

Lets play this as a wait and see for the moment.It could be 2007 or just a flip flop.
The ukmo didn't mention an easterly,cold and snow in their outlook yesterday for the fun of it.
There must have been some probability and not just the tiny trend we were see'ing in near FI.

Exactly, if it can go one way all of a sudden, it can certainly go back again.
Plus past 180hrs it just looks all over the place...

MiNdGaM3

Unfortunately, it looks like the vortex will split and send a chunck down towards Greenland, which is exactly where we don't want it...
Could still change, but looks more like we'll get westerlies or south westerlies than easterlies at this stage:(

Elmer Blooker

derekon wrote: »

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I've read this post several times and I have to admit I've no idea what you're talking about? [/QUOTE

I think what GFS might be referring to is that at our latitude, Ireland should be snow covered during the winter. However, the Gulf Stream ensures this does not happen thanks to the mass of mild air it brings our way. Therefore, Ireland remains largely green during winter, thus "rendering" the island unique for its latitude

Thank you for enlightening me.
As for "celebrating our uniqueness" - I didn't find anything to celebrate during the s**** "summers" of 07,08,09 and 10. But it's all a matter of opinion, if some people like days on end of rain, gloom and grey skies that's ok with me. Personally I like blue skies and sun which generally means cold in winter and warm in summer.

200motels

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

derekon wrote: »

Thank you for enlightening me.
As for "celebrating our uniqueness" - I didn't find anything to celebrate during the s**** "summers" of 07,08,09 and 10. But it's all a matter of opinion, if some people like days on end of rain, gloom and grey skies that's ok with me. Personally I like blue skies and sun which generally means cold in winter and warm in summer.

Well I like all that as well but we do need rain from time to time but not most of the time. I hate when ME state on their forecasts on RTE that thankfully it will get milder and we all know milder means rain and plenty of it most of the time. Roll on the summer and maybe with a bit of luck we might get a week or two of sunny weather, maybe!

Harps

I know chances are all but gone already but just for something a little less pessimistic :rolleyes:

thetonynator

Bare beginnings of a scandi high scandi disorganised mess at the end of the ECM run, bringing cooler uppers as far as scotland but only -4's here.





GEFS also showing an easterly and scandi high at 348 hrs . . which isn't even worth copying!

nacho libre

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

derekon wrote: »

Thank you for enlightening me.
As for "celebrating our uniqueness" - I didn't find anything to celebrate during the s**** "summers" of 07,08,09 and 10. But it's all a matter of opinion, if some people like days on end of rain, gloom and grey skies that's ok with me. Personally I like blue skies and sun which generally means cold in winter and warm in summer.

I think you'll find quite a few of those who celebrate our uniqueness because it ensures we don't receive winters that other countries like Canada do , change their mentality when this uniqueness leads to wet summers:p

BEASTERLY

nacho libre wrote: »

I think you'll find quite a few of those who celebrate our uniqueness because it ensures we don't receive winters that other countries like Canada do , change their mentality when this uniqueness leads to wet summers:p

I think that behavior is kept to a MINimum

derekon

I am not too sure if the GFS can be trusted (can it?) , however its now showing a major upgrade on a possible outbreak of severe cold over Britain & Ireland just after mid Feb. However, its deep in FI so a major health warning is attached until the ECM & UKMO come on board.

Pangea

Country tracks forecast was boring up until the last sentence where he said next week is going to turn quite a bit colder
P.s. Thats the week starting 14th Feb.

Iancar29

SEE , another change for the better , its fun aint it!?! ha

But ye , bring on the severe cold one last time i say!

Redsunset

Yep trending to a scandi high but it needs to be a strong one positioned perfectly.encouraging signs all the same.Not getting too excited yet.

derekon

Ok everyone, please form an orderly queue. Tickets for the rollercoaster are now officially on sale (you might also notice the snow on the ground...:D)

Iancar29

derekon wrote: »

Ok everyone, please form an orderly queue. Tickets for the rollercoaster are now officially on sale (you might also notice the snow on the ground...:D)

*Jumps to the front!*

NIALL D

things are starting to look good
you would be sick of this crappy wet weather..

BEASTERLY

NIALL D wrote: »

you would be sick of this crappy wet weather..

oisingeogho

ye but realistically what are the chances of it getting very cold again

NIALL D

BEASTERLY wrote: »

aboyro

:D:D:D

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

oisingeogho wrote: »

ye but realistically what are the chances of it getting very cold again

NIALL D wrote: »

aboyro wrote: »

:D:D:D

This thread is full of useful input today . . .not that i'm adding to it, other than to say that the outlook on netweather at the moment is quite optimistic . . .but they're always optimistic!

NIALL D

haha , very useful alright

@ BEASTERLY , what i mean is things are possibly lookin good for a return of cold weather... an im sick of the rain !! hopefully a return of snow sometime soon.......

BEASTERLY

NIALL D wrote: »

im sick of the rain !!

thats the bit that confuses me:D

darkman2

Quite close to something very cold but we just need the Jet Stream to amplify a little bit more and the Southern Arm to dive South allowing the Low Pressure systems in the Atlantic to undercut the Scandinavian High Pressure and introduce a bitterly cold Easterly.


Almost there but not quite. Trending the right direction though. Should be interesting over the next few days to see how this evolves.


GFS is probrably the pick this evening with significant snow potential next weekend. This will change but a good example of what may occur. The UKMO also has a good evolution for coldies.

Pangea

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Feb 2011 to Sunday 20 Feb 2011:

It will initially be unsettled, particularly across western parts of the UK with showers or longer periods of rain, some of which will be heavy at times. This rain will occasionally extend further east but amounts here are likely to be smaller. It will be on the mild side at first and also rather windy at times in the north and west of the UK with a risk of gales. There is then an increasing trend for it to turn generally colder through next week, with a risk of some snow, particularly over higher ground and perhaps to lower levels in the north and east. There is also a lower risk of it turning very cold in eastern parts, with a chance of some significant snowfalls.

Updated: 1152 on Sun 6 Feb 2011

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Feb 2011 to Monday 7 Mar 2011:

It is likely to continue to be cold particularly in eastern parts where it may be very cold at first. Rainfall amounts are likely to be below average for most parts, particularly the northwest. However, there may be some wetter and milder interludes in southern and western parts, especially to start. Also, where precipitation does fall in eastern parts it may fall as snow, even to low levels.

Updated: 1213 on Sun 6 Feb 2011

Interesting outlook , an upgrade , nice to see them mentioning the words 'very cold' and 'significant snow' again.

Chicken Run

flippin' marvellous... NOT

Loads of rain, localised flooding around here and then the bugger'll freeze... Joy...

and Clare won't get snow...stupid snow-shield *grump*

BEASTERLY

Chicken Run wrote: »

flippin' marvellous... NOT

Loads of rain, localised flooding around here and then the bugger'll freeze... Joy...

and Clare won't get snow...stupid snow-shield *grump*

Hip Hip.....


Hooray!

Seriously though there is no model apart from the NOGAPS showing an easterly tonight. The heights are remaining very low heights to the north, so know widespread blocking up their in the forseeable future. Strange how this winter had a first half like last winter and the second half has just been like any winter from the 90's and 00's. Bloody moderate La Nina.

Harps

gfs is still hinting at it as well but its a big downgrade from earlier. The main positive to take at the moment is that theres at least a trend developing towards cold weather in the 2nd half of the month