Potential return of Severe Cold from mid February

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Its not as nice

Redsunset

There's nothing wrong with it the important thing is it still there.orientation will be decided later if she holds

Musicman2000

Its not as nice? nothing wrong with that run at all, but it prob wont happen:mad:

Rebelbrowser

IF this easterly comes off it could be a factor in the Election on 24 Feb. If there was heavy snow, say, the day before or on the day, would it affect the vote I wonder (could it ever be postponed or cancelled)? Older folk might stay at home which would be more bad news for FF:D.......... wait a minute, this isn't politics.ie is it?

darkman2

A much improved set of GFS ensembles. The average synoptic posistion is good for much colder continental winds. There is going to be an extremely cold pool developing over Northeast Europe. Hopefully we can tap it.




In layman's terms the chance of an exceptionally cold period of weather next week is increasing.

BLIZZARD7

Well I think the models are looking better today, alot of confusion though. FI starts at around +144hrs, maybe less. The battleground scenario is a big possibility with cold air encroaching from the north west and north east! GFS 06z and 12z bring in an epic easterly, very cold uppers. UKMO is not so great but it's +144hrs chart isn't a million miles away from the GFS-

GFS 12z +144hrs -



UKMO 12z + 144hrs -



The ECM 00z +144hrs -



The ECM is not bad and is a good bit better than the UKMO, will the 12Z be good though??

The ECM +168hrs chart almost gets there but dosent quite -

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110207/00/ecm500.168.png

The +240 chart reminds me of Jan 08, we were so close to a proper easterly, alas the high didn't get far enough north and west -

ECM +240hrs -

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110207/00/ecm500.240.png

Jan 2008 -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080103.gif

Now let's look at the ECM 00z ensembles -

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

They show a very decent cold bunch, the best ECM Ensembles in a while.

Now back to the GFS, the 12Z was perfect, shows a lovely scandi high, positioned perfectly, with low pressure undercutting it providing bitter easterly's across the UK and Ireland -



This is very good, didn't think it would still be there on the 12z it's usually alot more progressive that the 06z.

The GME has a very nice battleground over us at +132 hours-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme1322.gif

Would result in very heavy snow showers packing in from the north west.

All in all a very nice trend today, I will be confident of a decent easterly if the 12Z ECM keeps up the theme.





Dan :cool:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ok, im not as upset now !;):pac:

wispy

ok, there is some very interesting developments on www.theweatheroutlook.com 16 day forecast...been rubbish mild/wet for the past few days...not anymore, check out week 2 .....:)

Musicman2000

wispy wrote: »

ok, there is some very interesting developments on www.theweatheroutlook.com 16 day forecast...been rubbish mild/wet for the past few days...not anymore, check out week 2 .....:)

Wouldnt pay to much attention to that

derekon

wispy wrote: »

ok, there is some very interesting developments on www.theweatheroutlook.com 16 day forecast...been rubbish mild/wet for the past few days...not anymore, check out week 2 .....:)

All in FI my friend (Fantasy Island)

Don't trust any weather model more than 4-5 days out. You might aswell be looking up a cow's a*se :cool:

oisingeogho

18z dont look to great

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The 00z looks rotten too

wispy

agreed, the outlook on www.theweatheroutlook.com fluctuates every 5 minutes, think they just make it up !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

06z not looking much better ?

It's a case of what goes on in Fi , stays in FI.
I give the chances of a major cold spell before march 1 as being very small.

After that if can fcek off!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Deleted User wrote: »

It's a case of what goes on in Fi , stays in FI.
I give the chances of a major cold spell before march 1 as being very small.

After that if can fcek off!

Had enough have we !

Redsunset

Ah will ya stop.welcome to f i.it's going to do that.wait till closer to time cause the atlantic looks like it's revved up too much.I think it will be pushed further west so don't be giving yourself heart failure yet.the trend is far more important.

nacho libre

As M.T. in his latest update hints at it looks likes we'll be stuck in a no mans land scenario- no bitter cold, but nothing too mild either. That the problem with a scandi high, even if you have a weakening jet, without support from a greenie high, you need a really strong one for it to keep the Atlantic at bay.

perhaps it's time we all got back to snow dancing.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

nacho libre wrote: »

As M.T. in his latest update hints at it looks likes we'll be stuck in a no mans land scenario- no bitter cold, but nothing too mild either. That the problem with a scandi high, even if you have a weakening jet, without support from a greenie high, you need a really strong one for it to keep the Atlantic at bay.

perhaps it's time we all got back to snow dancing.

Gonna get ma boogie ONNNN :pac:

redsunset

redsunset wrote: »

Ah will ya stop.welcome to f i.it's going to do that.wait till closer to time cause the atlantic looks like it's revved up too much.I think it will be pushed further west so don't be giving yourself heart failure yet.the trend is far more important.

yeah but we've been looking at FI since last january...

As for a Scandy high,it's well able to drive in the cold as long as it's positioned properly.
Feb '91 had the polar vortex on top of Greenland and we had 2 weeks of severe cold and snow,pretty much equal here to what we got in late november/early december's first cold burst.

Below is a screenshot of the actual scandy high we got then,with disturbances flowing in from the East.
This is todays lesson in synoprically how an Easterly works for Ireland.No 850 data on that map but I should imagine they were circa -8c or lower.

Davaeo09

An old farmers wife said to my mother yesterday that her sheep told her there was snow on the way...
Or some thing like that....

:rolleyes:

nacho libre

They(scandi highs) do work occasionally, but as we see the high this time is not quite strong enough nor positioned as favourably. so it would seem it never gets far enough west as a result. So situations like 1991 do occur, but they aren't too frequent if you have low heights over Greenland. I still think it'll be a case of close but no cigar, as per the latest ukmo update, unless we see heights building in Greenland. I could be wrong, though:)

Redsunset

Latest gfs a step in right direction again.overcAooking atlantic lows again too

Speak Now

Ensembles pretty much agree on everything 6 days out.
Not too much a scatter for days 7/8.
F.I really starts at T192.
Really depends on energy of atlantic then and angle of the high, pity its only 1032 could do with 1050 really.
Mild is the fav but you cant rule anything out

John.Icy

FI starts well before that..maybe +100..there are big differences between the models before 192, so 100 is a good time to put FI.

As for cold prospects, were close to a potential sevre spell...and were close to atlantic domination..it could be thursday before we know what the heck will happen..

Once we get some nice energy undercutting of the scandi (which has a very decent chance of happening), an easterly and some snow might possibly follow suit.

BLIZZARD7

Anybody who thinks FI starts at +192hrs needs a lobotomy! As John.icy says, there is huge differences within +120hrs, never mind +192 hrs which is in the low resolution range anyway!

GFS 12z throws up a mega low, it looks better than the 00z/06z though. As has being said we are quite close to a severe cold spell or Atlantic low after low. I suspect no man's land is the favoured option ATM. If we get this situation and are lucky we could see some big snowfalls from battles of cold vs warm air over the country, that's very risky territory though. The safer option is a nice cold easterly with the jet undercutting the scandi high, this option is just as viable as any other at this stage.

I said yesterday that id be sure of an easterly If yesterday's 12z ECM showed it. Bad idea, it didn't show it and even if it did it wouldn't matter, the models are flip-flopping all over the place ATM, even the ensembles too.

FI is +96hrs atleast, IMO.


EDIT : I bet the 12z ECM shows a beasterly!





Dan :cool:

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Anybody who thinks FI starts at +192hrs needs a lobotomy! As John.icy says, there is huge differences within +120hrs, never mind +192 hrs which is in the low resolution range anyway!

GFS 12z throws up a mega low, it looks better than the 00z/06z though. As has being said we are quite close to a severe cold spell or Atlantic low after low. I suspect no man's land is the favoured option ATM. If we get this situation and are lucky we could see some big snowfalls from battles of cold vs warm air over the country, that's very risky territory though. The safer option is a nice cold easterly with the jet undercutting the scandi high, this option is just as viable as any other at this stage.

I said yesterday that id be sure of an easterly If yesterday's 12z ECM showed it. Bad idea, it didn't show it and even if it did it wouldn't matter, the models are flip-flopping all over the place ATM, even the ensembles too.

FI is +96hrs atleast, IMO.


EDIT : I bet the 12z ECM shows a beasterly!





Dan :cool:

There doesn't seem to be any sign of the nao going deep into negative territory. which would help matters greatly.

We are overdue the risky territory scenario paying off! I wonder what the set up was like in 1933 and in 1917, when parts of the country were affected by snowstorms. Personally, I'd be happy with one humongous snow storm to see out this winter. It's not too much ask for, is it? are you listening Snow Gods?

BLIZZARD7

nacho libre wrote: »

There doesn't seem to be any sign of the nao going deep into negative territory. which would help matters greatly.

We are overdue the risky territory scenario paying off! I wonder what the set up was like in 1933 and in 1917, when parts of the country were affected by snowstorms. Personally, I'd be happy with one humongous snow storm to see out this winter. It's not too much ask for, is it? are you listening Snow Gods?

I agree although we don't need a negative NAO for a very cold easterly, it would help prolong one. Yes we are well overdue that scenario, I'd be very happy with one humongous blizzard to finish winter!!

EDIT : I like the ECM this evening!! +168hrs - Jet taking a trip to Portugal. :cool:

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-168.GIF?08-0

+192hrs is a horrible mess of shortwaves, good thing it's FI!

Dan:D

BEASTERLY

<<= :cool:

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

EDIT : I bet the 12z ECM shows a beasterly!

The ECM is going well. low to our south, stronger height rises to the north:)

EDIT:192 chart is a step backwards, *sigh*

BLIZZARD7

BEASTERLY wrote: »

<<= :cool:


The ECM is going well. low to our south, stronger height rises to the north:)

EDIT:192 chart is a step backwards, *sigh*

Lol I was almost right, the trend is good anyway.

BOM is exceptional this evening!!

+174hrs -



+192hrs -



+204hrs -



+216hrs -



+240hrs -




:eek::D WOW is all I can say!





Dan :cool: