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04-01-2011, 07:33   #1
darkman2
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Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

I did ellude briefly yesterday that there was a small risk of significant snow during Friday and Saturday. It's still a relatively small but increasing risk that there will be a significant snowfall in many areas or at the very least snow for a time. Please keep this thread for discussion on this as it could be a disruptive snowfall. Most models are playing up the risk of disruption this morning but this could change.

Basically the country will find itself sandwiched between two different air masses - mild to the South, cold to the North - it's been many years since we had a frontal snow event in Ireland and so if one does occur it could be disruptive. More later...

Have to watch this one closely


Last edited by darkman2; 04-01-2011 at 07:57.
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04-01-2011, 08:08   #2
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I see that MET Eireann are now suggesting that most of the country could see snow on Friday from the south with up to 10cms in places and possible drifts due to winds.

One to watch alright, though with the potential fluctuations in temps and the potential for rain around it is probably unlikely that we will see the dramatic freezing of snow.
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04-01-2011, 08:52   #3
 
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We dont want snow. Too much hassle the last time and i've only got my water back from frozen pipes.
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04-01-2011, 08:55   #4
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Lol. Think a change of name might be called for there Snowman.
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04-01-2011, 08:57   #5
 
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I doubt coastal areas of the East including Dublin will see snow from this if the wind is directly off the irish sea.
The cold pool is simply not cold enough for to modify that kind of mixing.
10 miles inland in leinster and above 500ft asl,it's a different story entirely

It could well be a full snow event for much of inland ulster and all of Connaught and North munster.
I'd rule out snow from any of the get go in coastal waterford and cork also and maybe further north of there exposed to an onshore wind if it's Easterly.

One to watch alright.At this stage it's a significant chance which may reduce or increase depending on developments.
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04-01-2011, 09:02   #6
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That is a possibility in coastal areas. But atm on the GFS and UKMO the minimum requirements are satisfied for sea snow on Friday that is sub zero dew points and 850hpa temperatures starting out at sub -8C in the Irish sea (for a time on the GFS, more so on the UKMO). Inland it's less marginal as usual but we don't know yet what the wind direction will actually be and the whole lot could still miss us enitrely. Unlikely but possible.
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04-01-2011, 09:07   #7
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Originally Posted by Black Briar View Post
I doubt coastal areas of the East including Dublin will see snow from this if the wind is directly off the irish sea.
The cold pool is simply not cold enough for to modify that kind of mixing.
10 miles inland in leinster and above 500ft asl,it's a different story entirely

It could well be a full snow event for much of inland ulster and all of Connaught and North munster.
I'd rule out snow from any of the get go in coastal waterford and cork also and maybe further north of there exposed to an onshore wind if it's Easterly.

One to watch alright.At this stage it's a significant chance which may reduce or increase depending on developments.
Just wondering would this be potentially like the 10 Jan fall last year which came from the South? That was pegged as marginal all that week but eventually came good for some. In fact, unusually, it gave good falls to South Munster (where it was always called as a sleet event by ME) but fell as rain on East coast.
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04-01-2011, 09:09   #8
 
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Agreed.
I don't like a surface feed off the irish sea though when theres no surface cold advection to feed upon.
So I'm sticking with rain on coasts below 150 metres up to 10 miles inland,like the sunday event at the end of the january 10 spell.

Thats if the system comes up,yes of course.
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04-01-2011, 09:09   #9
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I doubt coastal areas of the East including Dublin will see snow from this if the wind is directly off the irish sea.
Such a shame the M2 bouy is down. Will feel like being only partially sighted!
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04-01-2011, 09:11   #10
 
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Just wondering would this be potentially like the 10 Jan fall last year which came from the South? That was pegged as marginal all that week but eventually came good for some. In fact, unusually, it gave good falls to South Munster (where it was always called as a sleet event by ME) but fell as rain on East coast.
Similar but different.
This system has to meet the cold air to turn to snow and it's unlikely to be meeting it as early as cork unlike that sunday jan 2010 event..
The colder air is going to be further north.
It certainly won't meet it in cork city.
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04-01-2011, 09:15   #11
 
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Such a shame the M2 bouy is down. Will feel like being only partially sighted!
Doc,theres a crucial,very crucial difference here.
There are no snow fields over the UK south of the north of England or there won''t be .
In january 2010 there were and the surface feed was coming over that freezing area before being modified over the irish sea.Even with that freezing surface air then,the mixing caused sleet and rain on the coast.This is more marginal that that.
This time if the wind is East snow is going to have a hard time making it to the ground at sea level near to the coast.
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04-01-2011, 09:20   #12
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Similar but different.
This system has to meet the cold air to turn to snow and it's unlikely to be meeting it as early as cork unlike that sunday jan 2010 event..
The colder air is going to be further north.
It certainly won't meet it in cork city.

I would not go along with that




For a frontal event it's sub -4c that is the crucial marker esspecially for inland snow. Sub -4 and a frontal system over your head is highly likely to be snow and there are other reasons why that is the case whereas in a showery setup it's not as likely and the most major one I suppose is evaporative cooling. That can change rain to snow in supprising places where it would not have been expected and it's happened loads of times in the past in Ireland. Frontal snow events do happen in Ireland and they have happened in my area right on the coast - if we look at it in a broader sense, yes this setup could be marginal but do we have a better shot this time then maybe other years? Id imagine so given what we have already had this year. It is extraordinary considering the last 3 winters have been so cold that there has not been a decent prolonged snow event yet. Remember SST's are below average now aswell and that has to be taken into account. We are due a significant snowfall. Maybe Friday and Saturday who knows....
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04-01-2011, 09:32   #13
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better shot this time then maybe other years? Id imagine so given what we have already had this year. ....
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04-01-2011, 09:33   #14
 
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I would not go along with that




For a frontal event it's sub -4c that is the crucial marker esspecially for inland snow. Sub -4 and a frontal system over your head is highly likely to be snow and there are other reasons why that is the case whereas in a showery setup it's not as likely and the most major one I suppose is evaporative cooling. That can change rain to snow in supprising places where it would not have been expected and it's happened loads of times in the past in Ireland. Frontal snow events do happen in Ireland and they have happened in my area right on the coast - if we look at it in a broader sense, yes this setup could be marginal but do we have a better shot this time then maybe other years? Id imagine so given what we have already had this year. It is extraordinary considering the last 3 winters have been so cold that there has not been a decent prolonged snow event yet. Remember SST's are below average now aswell and that has to be taken into account. We are due a significant snowfall. Maybe Friday and Saturday who knows....
So the rain in Dublin on that sunday event in january 2010 was falling at -4c 850's or higher was it?
Show me a historical chart for that day that tells me that and I'll except your point.

From experience,I've never seen it to snow on the East coast with a weather front coming up from the south in Easterly winds when 2 of the following things are not in place already and those are,an established surface cold pool over Ireland and a freezing surface air feed in that easterly flow from Britain.
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04-01-2011, 09:33   #15
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Accuweather doesn't have the same predictions
Does anyone know if it is likely the airport will be affected again?
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