Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

Harps

DarkJager wrote: »

Any news of some really heavy rain and strong winds? I really can't wait to see them come back. Snow can pack its bags and **** off for another 12 months as far as I'm concerned.

We've had heavy rain and strong wind last night and today, its wonderful :rolleyes:

nacho libre

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Ya gotta take what you can get !

Anyway at the moment on the GFS run DP's dont look great

not for the southern half of country, but they look to be just about ok for snow to fall in most of ulster and perhaps parts of connacht.

jimmynokia

maybe MT can shed some thoughts id still believe here than MET eirean

DarkJager

Harps wrote: »

We've had heavy rain and strong wind last night and today, its wonderful :rolleyes:

It really is. At least you can drive in that weather.

opr

John.Icy wrote: »

The OP used UKMO, which is more favourable for snow, but that model is 3rd in line atm.

I am pretty sure I seen a link recently that in analysis of how the models performed in predicting the outcome to the actual outcome over the last month the UKMO performed the best.

Opr

typhooner

iceland is going to be exceptionally cold at the end of this week, shame we don't have a screaming northerly but even so the really cold air does reach us albeit heavily modifed by the Atlantic, UKMO seems to be showing this at short range...

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-21.GIF?04-17

typhooner

potential for upgrades is very promising going by todays models\charts, ECM coming out in an hour or so should be revealing

Iancar29

typhooner wrote: »

potential for upgrades is very promising going by todays models\charts, ECM coming out in an hour or so should be revealing

Very much indeed... all eyes on 6one weather , , even tough they seem to be a bit "adventourous" latley.

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just to echo this about the 12z UKMO. To my (very untrained!) eye it looks promising in terms of the 850 temps.

Yes at 72 hours the upper temps look a bit better on the UKMO but 72 hours is as far out as the 850 temp charts go on the UKMO for us and at that stage the precip is still off the south coast anyway :

John.Icy

nacho libre wrote: »

is it? it did very well in the last two cold spells when the ecm was wavering and the gfs was doing it's usual routine of showing the atlantic back in control after a couple of days. it maybe that the ukmo may fall into line with the other models. we'll see.

It is indeed, a close 3rd that is, but it only can only take runs so far so far, like most of the GFS and ECM arn't used as they go out much further than the UKMO, so out to +144, its GFS and ECM leading the pack.

John.Icy

opr wrote: »

I am pretty sure I seen a link recently that in analysis of how the models performed in predicting the outcome to the actual outcome over the last month the UKMO performed the best.

Opr

Each model has various up's and downs, here's the chart, GFS and ECM, are above UKMO atm, very close though, Ukmo is after coming out of a very bad performing spell, nearly dropping to NOGAPS level's :P

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

Here's the link.

WolfeIRE

HIRLAM PRECIP


HIRLAM TEMPS

thetonynator

UKMO 850 temps are nice all right, but the others aren't really backing it up . .:(

darkman2

It's too early to speculate on exact locations really. We have 3 different possibilities

1. The whole lot misses us to the South and East keeping us cold but dry for a time
2. The warmer air is too progressive in moving up over the country meaning snow only for a short time (a few hours) then rain
3. Significant snow especially in the North and West through Friday turning sleety in the Southeast (although here it may just turn to rain under any scenario)


Take your pick.....


At the moment I slightly favour the snow then rain scenario. But it's all up in the air really. Should be interesting observing how this developes in the next 48hrs.

WolfeIRE

darkman2 wrote: »

It's too early to speculate on exact locations really. We have 3 different possibilities

1. The whole lot misses us to the South and East
2. The warmer air is too progressive in moving up over the country meaning snow only for a short time (a few hours) then rain
3. Significant snow especially in the North and West through Friday turning sleety in the Southeast (although here it may just turn to rain under any scenario)


Take your pick.....

would go with third based on current data. Coastal locations in W and N would not see snow though and I think the heaviest falls would be confined to high ground.

H2UMrsRobinson

I smell an omelette - eggs frying on MET Eir red faces...

followed by surprise snow later in month - the Ninja type of stuff we had in December.

sillybird

darkman2 wrote: »

It's too early to speculate on exact locations really. We have 3 different possibilities

1. The whole lot misses us to the South and East keeping us cold but dry for a time
2. The warmer air is too progressive in moving up over the country meaning snow only for a short time (a few hours) then rain
3. Significant snow especially in the North and West through Friday turning sleety in the Southeast (although here it may just turn to rain under any scenario)


Take your pick.....

I'll take no. 3 please

jo06555

So as a waterford man i assume any snow that met eireann has predicted will fall on most of irl but no where near waterford again , im hoping we get a bit still...........

carlmwan

I find it funny when everyone here is saying were gonna be getting snow ME stay quite but when most people are saying we prob wont they saying were gonna get hit hard?? weird

darkman2

The 12pm ECM run is pretty solid for snow to continue in the Northern half of the country but for snow to either die out or turn to rain elsewhere through Friday. A curved line from Meath to Galway North roughly. A bit of tweaking here and there and it can change very quickly.

Not

carlmwan wrote: »

I find it funny when everyone here is saying were gonna be getting snow ME stay quite but when most people are saying we prob wont they saying were gonna get hit hard?? weird

I've noticed that pattern too.

When ME calls a significant snow event a few days in advance, it never happens.

maquiladora

12Z ECM looks better than the GFS at 120 hours to me

Tucking Fypo

Lashing rain the last few hours in the North West.:(

mickger844posts

jo06555 wrote: »

So as a waterford man i assume any snow that met eireann has predicted will fall on most of irl but no where near waterford again , im hoping we get a bit still...........

Hope we get some too but its extremely unlikely that we will get snow from these types of scenarios. Thats why i haven't bought my ticket for this roller coaster

df1985

I loved snow as much as everyone the last time but that all changed after burst pipes in my house.....stay mild please!

Cosmo Kramer

Jean!

Where have you been all Christmas!:)

hotwhiskey

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Jean!

Where have you been all Christmas!:)

She must still thinks its Halloween!

John.Icy

Anyway, ECM not all that bad I suppose, but this will be most surely a nowcast situation.

H2UMrsRobinson

John.Icy wrote: »

You can't call it Ninja snow, if there's an Easterly or North-Easterly, anyone who has an intrest in weather knows that means convection over the Irish sea unless theirs something disturbing it.

So Met Eireann didn't go for huge amount's, but they said snow showers all week till Thursday, that's what came, the can't give out large depths, due to matters arising if things/events get cancelled and in the end, nothing happens.

Come on, they can't tell how much convection there will be, or how much moisture showers will hold.

It wasn't ninja snow, if you read M.T guidance/Forecast, or watched any forecast, snow was predicited, people should take the initiative, and realise the streamer potential, considering, the countless times streamer's have formed off winds with an East tilt.

Chill out mate you'll give yourself an ulcer !

(Note to self - research use of words before posting in weather forum - incorrect use of "Ninja Snow" terminology will be corrected by Newbies who are well meaning but sometimes a bit pedantic)

NIALL D

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Chill out mate you'll give yourself an ulcer !

(Note to self - research use of words before posting in weather forum - incorrect use of "Ninja Snow" terminology will be chastised by Newbies with an overinflated sense of self importance)

ha , you hit the nail on the head there