Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

Villain

Deleted User wrote: »

What does the 1km refer to in that chart?
Surely not the temperature at circa 3000ft asl?

1km refers to the resolution scale

Pangea

First snow reported in 2011 fell in Donegal

The first snow of 2011 fell across parts of Co Donegal yesterday. Some parts of the county received a dusting of snow yesterday morning and in the early afternoon.

Temperatures were expected to fall to -5 in some places last night with warnings from Met Éireann that rain will fall as sleet and snow in many places.

Amateur weatherman and postman Michael Gallagher says we are set for another freezing spell.

Met Éireann is predicting temperatures of between 3 and 7 degrees today across the country.
http://oceanfm.ie/article/First-snow-reported-in-2011-fell-in-Donegal/

thetonynator

Pangea wrote: »

First snow reported in 2011 fell in Donegal

The first snow of 2011 fell across parts of Co Donegal yesterday. Some parts of the county received a dusting of snow yesterday morning and in the early afternoon.

Temperatures were expected to fall to -5 in some places last night with warnings from Met Éireann that rain will fall as sleet and snow in many places.

Amateur weatherman and postman Michael Gallagher says we are set for another freezing spell.

Met Éireann is predicting temperatures of between 3 and 7 degrees today across the country.
http://oceanfm.ie/article/First-snow-reported-in-2011-fell-in-Donegal/

There were showers in sever; places before yesterday weren't there?? i saw lots of reports of them anyway . . .

Pangea

thetonynator wrote: »

There were showers in sever; places before yesterday weren't there?? i saw lots of reports of them anyway . . .

Dont think so. There were reports of snow showers in other parts of Ireland yesturday aswell but not before yesturday , not in Donegal anyways.

typhooner

unusual for Meteireann to be so bullish on an event that is 3/4 days ahead, synoptics are close enough though you'd have to think 50/50 call at the moment for a countrywide snow event

But what does that mean?

Iancar29

typhooner wrote: »

unusual for Meteireann to be so bullish on an event that is 3/4 days ahead, synoptics are close enough though you'd have to think 50/50 call at the moment for a countrywide snow event

We give out when they dont risk it for a biscuit... and we question them when they do?..... hahaha

LEt them.... ha

Villain

Deleted User wrote: »

But what does that mean?

It's accurate to 1km compared to say 27km. So it give different temps for each 1km compared to giving temps every 27km.

So it can give temp of say 5c 1km from coast and 4c 2km etc etc as where the 27km will give temp difference only each 27km

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

rain will fall as sleet and snow in many places.

Rain in Disguise

Iancar29

Pangea wrote: »

Rain in Disguise

BEASTERLY

Latest GFS shows a band of rain preceded shortly by mainly sleet and possibly some snow.




I hope im wrong but i would be extremely surprised if anybody saw any decent accumulating snow, never mind the 10cm are talking about, maybe ts just the GFS leading us astray , i wish:(

eigrod

typhooner wrote: »

unusual for Meteireann to be so bullish on an event that is 3/4 days ahead, synoptics are close enough though you'd have to think 50/50 call at the moment for a countrywide snow event

It'll be ME responding to the requirement for increased Public Sector effiencies under the Croke Park agreement

aboyro

todayfm news just mentioned the weather and used the words 10cm, snow and significant in the same sentence!!!!! interesting. i'm still thinkg rain for me though

I can't actually open it on the phone.
I presume it gives this on a map.

How are they calculating this from the gfs data ie what formula.
Presumably its only possible to be reasonably accurate inside a 24 or 36hr timeframe and even at that gfs as any model has been out at times at that distance.
How accurate is it for today for instance.
It seems to be a new project so no validation stats other than over all gfs validation stats.

John.Icy

The thing on our side, is that when the milder uppers arrive at our shores, the precip has all but stopped, as all of the good stuff goes into England instead. Then by the time colder uppers return another band moves across the country, heavier than the first, and would bring snow again to places.

Though anyone looking for a signifigent event, its gone, All the heaviest of the precip feeds into England, where it falls only as rain, par Northern parts. As I thought, the closer we get to the event, the more changes. Last night on the 18z the low was delayed, today, it sends everything to Britan. The last two of these Lows moving up from the south in cold spell's, ended up in coming No-where near us, I really feel there's an outside chance of this.

Also, this is very marginal for parts, the futher north and inland you go the better of a chance. But really, if snow falls, it will be super wet, and it wont accumulate on anything but grass and cars.

Let's hope for an upgrade.

Iancar29

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Latest GFS shows a band of rain preceded shortly by mainly sleet and possibly some snow.




I hope im wrong but i would be extremely surprised if anybody saw any decent accumulating snow, never mind the 10cm are talking about, maybe ts just the GFS leading us astray , i wish:(

No, i agree Beasterly, its not cold enough, thatll be mostly sleety rain at most, then just a short period of wet snow that wont stick. Hoping for a upgrade tough for temps to go a bit lower than expected!

maquiladora

Latest GME showing a wet & windy Sunday night/Monday morning at the end of it's run

BEASTERLY

GFS is forecasting dewpoints to be above zero over much of the country by lunchtime friday, i dont know where met eireann are seeing the potential for prolonged snow ''across much of the country'', or anybody else for that matter.

The most northern reach of the front may well see the precip stay as snow but there it very likely to be light a short lived, anywhere where the precip is heavy or prolonged(where the mild air all ready has swaded in at that stage) will have mixed precip at best, most likely plain rain.(you might be lucky to see splodges of slightly sleety rain on your windscreen:D)

nacho libre

]

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

GFS is forecasting dewpoints to be above zero over much of the country by lunchtime friday, i dont know where met eireann are seeing the potential for prolonged snow ''across much of the country'', or anybody else for that matter.

The 0Z ECM (at T24) shows colder uppers than the latest GFS for the same timeframe, I'd say thats why.

John.Icy

BEASTERLY wrote: »

GFS is forecasting dewpoints to be above zero over much of the country by lunchtime friday, i dont know where met eireann are seeing the potential for prolonged snow ''across much of the country'', or anybody else for that matter.

The most northern reach of the front may well see the precip stay as snow but there it very likely to be light a short lived, anywhere where the precip is heavy or prolonged(where the mild air all ready has swaded in at that stage) will have mixed precip at best, most likely plain rain.(you might be lucky to see splodges of slightly sleety rain on your windscreen:D)

Your right, but look at the precip for the GFS run,(Not netweather), it all stops when the milder air arrives, and when the precip returns, its all below zero again..

nacho libre

John.Icy wrote: »

Your right, but look at the precip for the GFS run,(Not netweather), it all stops when the milder air arrives, and when the precip returns, its all below zero again..

assuming it verifies like that, it may have all changed by tonight or tomorrow.
This is why i'm surprised by Met Eireann's morning update, given the uncertainity it's quite likely the next ecm run will show something completely different and the words signifcant and snow will likely be absent from their next update.

123balltv

I cant get excited about this
its not the same as before or as a big of a snow event

maquiladora

12Z GFS doesn't look good for snow Friday evening for the southern half of the country anyway

John.Icy

The OP used UKMO, which is more favourable for snow, but that model is 3rd in line atm.

Also, we wont know till Thursday what's going to happen. As I said, the last two low's similar to this one in the previous cold spell's, failed to make it here, and stayed well south of us.

nacho libre

123balltv wrote: »

I cant get excited about this
its not the same as before or as a big of a snow event

that's the problem with raised expectations. there were winters not too long ago where we'd be glad to see 5cms of snow. you may get your wish via an easterly after mid-month, but it could just as easily be standard wintry spells from now on for us

pistolpetes11

123balltv wrote: »

I cant get excited about this
its not the same as before or as a big of a snow event

Ya gotta take what you can get !

Anyway at the moment on the GFS run DP's dont look great

nacho libre

John.Icy wrote: »

The OP used UKMO, which is more favourable for snow, but that model is 3rd in line atm.

s.

is it? it did very well in the last two cold spells when the ecm was wavering and the gfs was doing it's usual routine of showing the atlantic back in control after a couple of days. it maybe that the ukmo may fall into line with the other models. we'll see.

DarkJager

Any news of some really heavy rain and strong winds? I really can't wait to see them come back. Snow can pack its bags and **** off for another 12 months as far as I'm concerned.

Rebelbrowser

John.Icy wrote: »

The OP used UKMO, which is more favourable for snow, but that model is 3rd in line atm.

Also, we wont know till Thursday what's going to happen. As I said, the last two low's similar to this one in the previous cold spell's, failed to make it here, and stayed well south of us.

Just to echo this about the 12z UKMO. To my (very untrained!) eye it looks promising in terms of the 850 temps.

In relation to other such lows from the South, as said earlier the Jan one did deliver for Munster, even on the coast and in the cities. That was written off as way too marginal also right up to a few hours beforehand.

Fingers and toes still crossed here (and yes, I know, Cork city will need a miracle this time...)