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21-02-2010, 11:05   #1
darkman2
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Heavy Snow - Midlands, North and West from Tuesday Evening

Next days to watch are Tuesday and Wednesday. The far South of the country may escape with just rain but the rest of the country is at risk of some heavy snowfall (far more then last night). Discuss the prosects.












GFS has prospects further North over Ulster whilst the ECM has it further South principally over Leinster. UKMO has a happy medium. Things will chop and change over the next 24hrs but big potential on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Last edited by darkman2; 22-02-2010 at 14:13.
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21-02-2010, 11:15   #2
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Sadly it would appear that the "No Snow Zone" over Limerick continues to remain in spite of us no longer having a "Great Defender"

Enjoy the snow, those of you who have it.
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21-02-2010, 11:24   #3
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Looking really interesting atm but another close call, probably another nowcast situation (as ever).

BTW DM2, love the way you say the south may 'escape' with just rain! Some sort of consolation for them? Like how could anybody want snow?

Last edited by DOCARCH; 21-02-2010 at 11:29.
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21-02-2010, 11:33   #4
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The last fax chart posted above would be of serious concern as the 528dam line is too far north, especially with a system that comes up from the south.

If the centre of that low was shunted further east, effectivley closing the Biscay route and drawing in air from France via England, Wales then us, I'd be a little more confident...

Unless the models come up with something better, then i'd say no to this one DM2.
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21-02-2010, 11:40   #5
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The BBC Weather for The Week Ahead will feature within the Country Tracks program around 11.45am to 11.50am (in around 5 or 10 minutes) on BBC1 today. Sky Channel 141.
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21-02-2010, 11:57   #6
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poor country track forecast
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21-02-2010, 12:15   #7
darkman2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redsunset View Post
poor country track forecast
I would not take too much notice of that. It's a marginal situation with a few miles being the difference between rain and snow. The 00z GFS, for example, had widespread snowfall Wednesday night and the ECM does not agree with the UK Met Office on the posistioning of Low Pressure which makes a really big difference to the prospects.


Looks like either way Ulster is gauranteed a hammering on Tuesday and Wednesday.


BTW the 06z GFS, whilst it brings snow for a time to many areas on Tuesday, is actually on the mild side of the ensembles (the thick green line). The average (the thick white line) indicates more wintry conditions then the op run.


Last edited by darkman2; 21-02-2010 at 12:22.
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21-02-2010, 12:22   #8
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Oh i know its not gospel and will swing to and fro and will end up being a nowcast i feel.

As for the north like you said,the UKMO sure have some confidence for wintryness.


Northern Ireland: Co Antrim
Co Armagh
Co Derry
Co Down
Co Fermanagh
Co Tyrone
Heavy Snow Wed 24 Feb
There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of the UK. Rain spreading north may turn to snow and has the potential to give accumulations of more than 15 cm of fresh snow in places.
Issued at: 1042 Sat 20 Feb
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21-02-2010, 12:30   #9
ch750536
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
Next days to watch are Tuesday and Wednesday. The far South of the country may escape with just rain but the ...
What do you mean, escape?
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21-02-2010, 12:39   #10
darkman2
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What do you mean, escape?

They could have a more pleasant commute to work on Wednesday then areas further North.
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21-02-2010, 12:42   #11
darkman2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redsunset View Post
Oh i know its not gospel and will swing to and fro and will end up being a nowcast i feel.

As for the north like you said,the UKMO sure have some confidence for wintryness.


Northern Ireland: Co Antrim
Co Armagh
Co Derry
Co Down
Co Fermanagh
Co Tyrone
Heavy Snow Wed 24 Feb
There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of the UK. Rain spreading north may turn to snow and has the potential to give accumulations of more than 15 cm of fresh snow in places.
Issued at: 1042 Sat 20 Feb

This is what the UKMO shows precip and temperature rise. Clearly North Leinster and Ulster in the firing line. But further south too. Places like Dublin for example - alot of precipitation and temperatures 1 - 3C.






But it will change over the next few runs. Risk could be further South or further North.
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21-02-2010, 12:43   #12
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Hope we escape, I hope Dublin doesn't get snow either since that would be a national disaster

That said, we had snow last night while in Kilkenny city they had none, so one never knows.
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21-02-2010, 12:54   #13
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Sorry misread post above - no comment!
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21-02-2010, 12:58   #14
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
This is what the UKMO shows precip and temperature rise. Clearly North Leinster and Ulster in the firing line. But further south too. Places like Dublin for example - alot of precipitation and temperatures 1 - 3C.






But it will change over the next few runs. Risk could be further South or further North.
The country tracks forecast on BBC one had rain for everywhere south of Ulster and bits of north connaught.
Any class of an East wind coming in off the irish sea with no real cold source and with a positive dewpoint will ensure rain in Dublin below 800ft asl.
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21-02-2010, 13:04   #15
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redsunset View Post
poor country track forecast
Indeed.
What darkman2 is not taking into account is that winds from the irish sea with no lengthy cold surface feed,will bring in positive dewpoints.
Thinking otherwise I'm sad to say is dreaming.

Remember the famous sunday snow in the early january spell, that cork got but we didn't get on the East?
Twas a lot colder then than it is now and it rained due to the positive dewpoints/warmer air advection from the irish sea ie no real cold source left.

Lets not let dreaming over rule basic weather science.

That low pressure going a few 10's of miles north or south of where it is will change who gets snow on high ground and 20 miles plus inland but it will not make a half worth of difference on the coast in the East.
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