Cold Spell Discussion cont: Tuesday, Wednesday - more heavy snow risk

munsterlegend

Su Campu wrote: »

In this morning's 07:55 bulletin, Vincent O'Shea said rain moving northwards through munster and Leinster during the day will change to snow inland, giving sizeable accumulations over higher ground, and possibly leading to disruption in the north and west tomorrow night.

i was looking at the bbc graphics and they had it turning to snow inland very close to the south coast - a good sign for those further north. will more than likely be of rain down here in cork but to watch out for anyway.

DOCARCH

Certainly an interesting nail bighting week ahead!

Shower of snizzle/snow grains here atm. -0.8c

Breeze and cloud cover untill about 1am keeping things above zero here.
Dropped rapidly for a while then but has shot back up now to almost 3c in a strong sea breeze.
Dewpoint is already well above zero.

This is a precurser to what will be happening tomorrow as air travelling over the irish sea is modified enough to keep precip on the coast and more than likely over most of the populated parts of Dublin as rain.

(Note-my weatherstation is surrounded by a hedge up above it's anemometer so it won't record a breeze-a gale blows and it will go to 10mph or so)

darkman2

Based on this mornings GFS and UKMO and on temperatures, dew points etc. Rain pushing into the South coast extending Northward tomorrow afternoon preceded by sleet and snow. Temperatures will be about 1 - 4C generally on the Irish Sea tomorrow night and DP's 0 - -1 also on the Irish Sea.





South of Wicklow DP's are too high.

This reflected in the precip type charts





This is the case up till around 6am Wednesday morning. So I think Eastern coastal counties North of Wicklow will in fact have sleet and snow for most of tomorrow night but milder air will get in early Wednesday morning.


So taking my location in North Dublin as an example. Im thinking temperature of 2 - 3C (near or at freezing a little inland), Dew Point below 0, 850 temp around -4. There is indeed a chance tomorrow night north of Wicklow on coasts.

However like I say those DP's look to go positive as milder air arrives from the South sometime between 5 and 7am in the Dublin area before extending over most of Munster and Leinster. Snow could fall most, if not all, of the time in the West and North. Slight chance later on parts of the South coast.


So to summarise and this includes everyone. Sleet and Snow moving North - trning to rain for most Wednesday morning. Staying as snow in the North and West. Appreciable accumulations here. Then possibly turning back to snow toward the East Wednesday evening, or tomorrow night as it clears. Snow also possible in the South aswell but as ever it's uncertain. Temperatures 0 - 7 or 8C across the country.

Su Campu

I can see signs of this system not making as much progress north as the models have been forecasting. Call it a hunch, but I see it deepening faster than anticipated, occluding earlier and hence staying slightly further south. I can's see the precipitation getting much further than northern Leinster. We'll see if today's runs reflect that.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

So taking my location in North Dublin as an example. Im thinking temperature of 2 - 3C (near or at freezing a little inland), Dew Point below 0, 850 temp around -4. There is indeed a chance tomorrow night north of Wicklow on coasts.

I remain of the view I had yesterday so strongly doubt there will be much if any snow on coasts in Dublin and if there is it will be very wet stuff if the dp on the coast manages say -0.2 or better.
A 0c dp just won't cut the mustard with all the mixing unless you are inland and on higher ground ESPECIALLY with just -4 air at 850 level.

Of course I could be wrong,but I think for my guess today to be wrong something will have to change tomorrow to the snowy side of marginal.

I'm expecting an all snow event is a stronger likelyhood in places like Roundwood and sally gap where if all the precip arrives,there could be masses of snow.
I'm expecting no snow at all down here,but if it does snow here,things will have changed markedly and in that scenario-expect feet of snow in places like Rathdrum to annamoe to Glencullen [places in the firing line anyway] and across all of inland Dublin and obviously kildare etc

If the precip stretches into the north midlands,I'm expecting they will get a good bit of snow anyway maybe mixed with rain or sleet at times but they have a higher chance than Dublin so if I'm getting it,they'll get the works...I'm including Tuam and Mayo in that analysis if the precip gets there.
Fascinating weather whatever it does It might just decide to rain everywhere and I may have jinxed it

darkman2

06z GFS not doing any favours. Everything slightly further North. Shows how the smallest of changes can have big effects locally. Still plenty for the North and a snow (quickly) to rain event everywhere else at best.

snowjon

:eek::eek::eek:ECM 0z at 96h - good grief - surely this would bring blizzards to much of Ireland:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!96!Europe!12!pop!od!oper!public_plots!latest!chart.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-96.GIF?19-0 - uppers seem to support snow in most of Ireland from this setup.

Blizzard of the century if this happened which it wont of course, given the huge degree of uncertainty this week!

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

I remain of the view I had yesterday so strongly doubt there will be much if any snow on coasts in Dublin and if there is it will be very wet stuff if the dp on the coast manages say -0.2 or better.
A 0c dp just won't cut the mustard with all the mixing unless you are inland and on higher ground ESPECIALLY with just -4 air at 850 level.

Of course I could be wrong,but I think for my guess today to be wrong something will have to change tomorrow to the snowy side of marginal.

I'm expecting an all snow event is a stronger likelyhood in places like Roundwood and sally gap where if all the precip arrives,there could be masses of snow.
I'm expecting no snow at all down here,but if it does snow here,things will have changed markedly and in that scenario-expect feet of snow in places like Rathdrum to annamoe to Glencullen [places in the firing line anyway] and across all of inland Dublin and obviously kildare etc

If the precip stretches into the north midlands,I'm expecting they will get a good bit of snow anyway maybe mixed with rain or sleet at times but they have a higher chance than Dublin so if I'm getting it,they'll get the works...I'm including Tuam and Mayo in that analysis if the precip gets there.
Fascinating weather whatever it does It might just decide to rain everywhere and I may have jinxed it

The best snow events are the most marginal ones;)

It's hard to put across just how knife edge this is between an awesome snow event and a miserable wet event where ever you are

darkman2

snowjon wrote: »

:eek::eek::eek:ECM 0z at 96h - good grief - surely this would bring blizzards to much of Ireland:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!96!Europe!12!pop!od!oper!public_plots!latest!chart.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-96.GIF?19-0 - uppers seem to support snow in most of Ireland from this setup.

Blizzard of the century if this happened which it wont of course, given the huge degree of uncertainty this week!

For the North, West and Midlands possibly yeah





But it will be different again this evening. It's uncertain 20 hours out never mind 96hrs.

jambofc

very light snow grain shower,lasted about one min

200motels

I suppose we here in the capital of no snow will only see rain.:(:(

Gonzo

I think most of us in the east will just see sleety snow with very little if anything sticking to the ground.

DOCARCH

Looking at 06z you'd be doing very well to even see some sleet! For the Dublin area anyway. Looks like cold rain event atm.

But still too close to call I'd say - nowcast really.

ninebeanrows

You would be an optimistic man to expect more than a transitional period of sleet in Dublin tomorrow, obviously alot depends on the tracking of this low. Currently it is suggested to move just too far north, but this could change and will of course have big ramifications.

Still looking good for Ulster and the northwest tomorrow night into Wednesday.

For the east, the southerly up the Irish sea is the real killer.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Wildly OT but we should get this fella working for Met Eireann !

ninebeanrows

Ummm, you would have to question GFS positioning, the low over southern UK was seems to have been progged too far north going by observations of snow widespread in southern England just north of the coast.

redsteveireland

tinners wrote: »

Wildly OT but we should get this fella working for Met Eireann !

Childishly funny! I love it!:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

redsteveireland wrote: »

Childishly funny! I love it!:D

I'm in that mood today !! Not getting excited about snow prospects this week... just waiting to be surprised !

nacho libre

So are we talking about a line from Sligo northwards, based on present ouputs, that are the only places likely to get snow? this woud tally with the BBC countryfile forecast

if this winter had any sense of decency it would go out with a bang for those of us who want snow.

redsteveireland

nacho libre wrote: »

So are we talking about a line from Sligo northwards, based on present ouputs, that are the only places likely to get snow? this woud tally with the BBC countryfile forecast :(QUOTE]
What happened to a line from Galway to Dublin, or was I mistaken?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

redsteveireland wrote: »

nacho libre wrote: »

So are we talking about a line from Sligo northwards, based on present ouputs, that are the only places likely to get snow? this woud tally with the BBC countryfile forecast

QUOTE]
What happened to a line from Galway to Dublin, or was I mistaken?

As has been said it can change and has already. Best to just wait and see !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

nacho libre wrote: »

So are we talking about a line from Sligo northwards, based on present ouputs, that are the only places likely to get snow? this woud tally with the BBC countryfile forecast

if this winter had any sense of decency it would go out with a bang for those of us who want snow.

Quotes went a bit mad in my last post

I totally agree with you, one last blast and I would be happy

Redsunset

UK getting bombarded again i see.





Comparing the Gfs chart you posted WC to realtime(Well an hour in the difference) it looks fairly good.

Lumi

tinners wrote: »

redsteveireland wrote: »

As has been said it can change and has already. Best to just wait and see !

Agreed! Given the uncertainty of the charts at the moment its best to stick to the time-honoured forecasting method of sticking your head out of the window tomorrow night

redsteveireland

Fionagus wrote: »

tinners wrote: »

Agreed! Given the uncertainty of the charts at the moment its best to stick to the time-honoured forecasting method of sticking your head out of the window tomorrow night

Don't forget to watch any lamp posts near by too.

beco

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

How accurate are these fellows?

nacho libre

just heard the radio forecast there, sleet and snow moving northwards turning back to rain in western and central areas, while remaining as snow in the Northwest and Ulster. Well, it's not perfect from my perspective but if that forecast verifies a few hours of heavy snow is better than none at all!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

nacho libre wrote: »

just heard the radio forecast there, sleet and snow moving northwards turning back to rain in western and central areas whill remaining as snow in the Northwest and Ulster. Well, it's not perfect from my perspective but if that forecast verifies a few hours of heavy snow is better than none at all!

Defo, just wanna see one last bit of snow !!

Anyway... lets get planning for next winter ! :pac:

Deep Easterly

tinners wrote: »

Anyway... lets get planning for next winter ! :pac:

Not looking good. Just had a quick glance at my cat's paw. Long range cat paw reading suggest a mild, wet winter next year but this is subject to change. Will wait for the next cat paw run at 00z hrs to see.