Cold Spell Discussion cont: Tuesday, Wednesday - more heavy snow risk

milly4ever

that looks like a lot of snow- i hope flights will be ok for belfast city airport on thursday! :eek:

WolfeIRE

Snowaddict wrote: »

Hi WolfeIRE,

At the moment, they are at 50% or lower, with your location further south being the issue.
SA

thanks a million SA. Was thinking it would be along those lines. The slightest repositioning of that system and the speed of its track northwards are key to my overall chances of seeing snow. The uppers at the moment do not favour snowfall anywhere south of Mayo to Louth imo, at least in the next 48 hrs. Thereafter, and things are much more appetising for a larger proportion of the country. Exciting times.

snaps

DOCARCH wrote: »

Lucky OwenC is on a ban! Wouldn't bet on it if he was here.

Bring him back.......Some of his comments made me chuckle! Why was he banned? Just for being annoying?

This has been the coldest winter i can remember, i can only think of about 5 mornings i didnt have to de ice the car since beginning of Dec.

But not for snow though, I can remember some of the winters in the 80's (I lived in Essex) where we had major snowfalls, but wasn't as cold for the duration.

Have to admit im getting a bit tired of this cold now & I'm looking forward to a dry warm spring and a rosting summer (I'll be in South of France)

DOCARCH

snaps wrote: »

Bring him back.......Some of his comments made me chuckle! Why was he banned? Just for being annoying?

I think he called everybody on Boards a word beginning with 'P' and ending in 'ricks'!

nacho libre

Snowaddict wrote: »

Owenc & members from parts of Galway, Mayo and counties further North will be very happy if the evolution develops as modelled on the 12Z NAE Guidance - it's indicating significant snowfall across these areas at T+42:

i'm calling for everyone in these areas to do a snow dance:o

Joe Public

nacho libre wrote: »

well, the duration of the cold is exceptional. it will take something special to rival it. it is the type of winter we rarely get. i doubt many here can remember a winter with such sustained cold, where the jet stream was kept so far to the south of Ireland for so long. it would be brilliant if it turns out, as you say, to be a cold winter in a run of many but somehow i doubt we'll see a winter like this for a long time again.

I thought like that after the summers ( so called ) of 2007 & 2008 and then we got another equally as bad summer in 2009. In weather world anything is possible and there's no such thing as a dead cert!

Danno

Joe Public wrote: »

I thought like that after the summers ( so called ) of 2007 & 2008 and then we got another equally as bad summer in 2009. In weather world anything is possible and there's no such thing as a dead cert!

Global Warming anyone? Would you like some carbon tax on that?

Danno

The 12z Hi-Res output is online and still nothing great for snow across most of southern Ireland. At best an hour of two transitional snow before it turns to rain over central and western areas, even poorer for the east coast with rain from the get-go in Dublin City. The output stops at midnight going into Wednesday, so this applies for 12pm tomorrow until midnight.
Dewpoints hang on at 1c over most of inland Ireland so, still a bit to play for.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

i'm calling for everyone in these areas to do a snow dance:o

If I do a snow dance, and you end up getting snow again and I don't, you better find a good hiding place Nacho, I will be on the war path! :mad::D

Deep Easterly

snaps wrote: »

Bring him back.......Some of his comments made me chuckle! Why was he banned? Just for being annoying?

This has been the coldest winter i can remember, i can only think of about 5 mornings i didnt have to de ice the car since beginning of Dec.

But not for snow though, I can remember some of the winters in the 80's (I lived in Essex) where we had major snowfalls, but wasn't as cold for the duration.

Have to admit im getting a bit tired of this cold now & I'm looking forward to a dry warm spring and a rosting summer (I'll be in South of France)

Agree with everything above. I liked Owenc, he was a bit annoying when he totally disregarded explanations that he asked for in the first place but he seemed harmless and enthusiastic.

Yes, it has been consistently cool this winter, I can barely remember a night this season where we did not have a frost. It is funny, while my Feb mean temp is higher than that of January, I have only recorded one instance when the temp reached 10.0c dead bang this month. I recorded more double figures in January!

Su Campu

milly4ever wrote: »

that looks like a lot of snow- i hope flights will be ok for belfast city airport on thursday! :eek:

Going on the latest runs I don't see any lying snow anywhere, apart from the extreme north coast and mountain tops, come Wednesday morning as the snow will quickly turn to rain. The GFS has snow above around 500m Wednesday and Thursday.

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

Going on the latest runs I don't see any lying snow anywhere, apart from the extreme north coast and mountain tops, come Wednesday morning as the snow will quickly turn to rain. The GFS has snow above around 500m Wednesday and Thursday.

I haven't looked at the GFS yet in full, but latest HIRLAM seem keen to widen the slack center of the low rapidly as it extends its influence over Ireland which may result in heavier preciptation having a struggle to reach areas away exposed coasts. The chart above seems to go along with that. Slackness galore.

Danno

Agree with you Su Campu, this event is fast going downhill. There is too much sea air being pushed into the front between the low pressure centre and NW France which is being avected towards us.

There were tenative signs earlier last night that a dual centre would develop over the English Channel, if this were to happen, we'd be sucking diesel as winds would continue from the NE ahead of the front, instead they are bending SE now.

Parts of Galway, Mayo, Roscommon and across West and North Ulster will get a good few hours out of this event, more prolonged snow the closer to Derry City one is.

Deep Easterly

For better or for worse, at least this feature is getting into the hi res 24hr timeframe:



effecting the south by this time tomorrow. I'd not be surprised if details were still not fully nailed on yet even within this timeframe.

Snowaddict

We shall see what the 12Z ECMWF evolution holds in store tonight, we will have to wait some time before we can see what the short term evolution is as these charts only become available towards 7.15PM.

However, the latest Met Eireann forecast by Deirdre Lowe mentioned rain arriving in Southern areas tomorrow, turning to sleet & snow inland. In addition, she mentioned outbreaks of sleet and snow exclusively, spreading northwards & affecting more northern areas of the country through tomorrow night.

If the precipitation is as intense as is indicated on the available guidance today, then I'm going for at least 5CM of snowfall accumulation on high ground of approximately 300M or above across the Northern 35% of the country.

The GFS 12Z Evolution is still somewhat dissimilar to that of other Guidance available, for example the 12Z GEM, GME & UKMO evolutions.

It remains to be seen what happens but I certainly think that the risk of accumulating snowfall, at least for some time, across high ground in particular over Northern areas stands at approximately 70% tonight.

Also, Met Eireann are mentioning the main area of precipitation arriving in Southern areas around dawn, but I think it will be close to midday before it arrives in earnest.

nacho libre

i won't be surprised if in fact only ulster and the border counties get snow out of this and those of us in the west and central areas get a rain and sleet mix- in fact this would be consistent with what the bbc countryfile forecast on Sunday was showing.

the only thing in our favour this time is lower sea temperatures, and that precipitation will not reach here till after dark, but like that infamous sunday snow event that never was, i suspect the milder weather will likely have an effect quicker than anticipated resulting in sleet or at best an hour ot two of wet snow.

Snowaddict

nacho libre wrote: »

i won't be surprised if in fact only ulster and the border counties get snow out of this and those of us in the west and central areas get a rain and sleet mix- in fact this would be consistent with what the bbc countryfile forecast on Sunday was showing.

the only thing in our favour this time is lower sea temperatures, and that precipitation will not reach here till after dark, but like that infamous sunday snow event that never was, i suspect the milder weather will likely have an effect quicker than anticipated resulting in sleet or at best an hour ot two of wet snow.

It's quite possible Nacho, the evolution is a little different this time around but I can understand where you are coming from. As you say, precipitation may not even reach far Northwestern areas.

The latest BBC Graphics indicate snowfall potential for Northern Central areas tomorrow night & on a more widespread basis for Northern Ireland much later tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Also, with regard to the Sunday in early January, just remember that many areas did do very well out of it, with considerable snow falling even in southern areas away from the immediate East coast

SA

nacho libre

Snowaddict wrote: »

It's quite possible Nacho, the evolution is a little different this time around but I can understand where you are coming from. As you say, precipitation may not even reach far Northwestern areas.

The latest BBC Graphics indicate snowfall potential for Northern Central areas tomorrow night & on a more widespread basis for Northern Ireland much later tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Also, with regard to the Sunday in early January, just remember that many areas did do very well out of it, with considerable snow falling even in southern areas away from the immediate East coast

SA

sorry sa that really came across as the worst example of nimbyism:D

it just dawned on me after reading your post you got six - seven inches out of it and of course areas in cork which rarely get snow had heavy snow for hours!

Snowaddict

Snowaddict wrote: »

We shall see what the 12Z ECMWF evolution holds in store tonight..

And as I said that, it's less than promising out to T+120, conditions remaining cool to cold, but generally slightly to somewhat less cold than it has been for some time.

SA

snow ghost

Nacho,

You keep up that negativity - everytime you do it always snows.

Btw, I went outside and did that snow dance you recommended... would you mind emailing the Garda barracks, I don't think they believe my explanation.

Snowaddict

nacho libre wrote: »

sorry sa that really came across as the worst example of nimbyism:D

it just dawned on me after reading your post you got six - seven inches out of it and of course areas in cork which rarely get snow had heavy snow for hours!

No bother Nacho

I hope for you're sake & for all of you living in West/Northwest that you do eventually get a very decent snow event. You all deserve it for your patience. The synoptic evolution from April 1917 that DE mentioned a few days back would be excellent for all of you.

We just seem to be unlucky with the approach of LP systems from the south lately. The same again towards the end of December, with a snow event at low levels being missed out on by only 2C..

SA

nacho libre

snow ghost wrote: »

Lets just say the tiger at Auckland zoo didn't take too kindly to having his palm read and being told that the weather would remain 'cool for cats'. :eek:

.

so poor ken was killed by the cat:(

snow ghost

nacho libre wrote: »

so poor ken was killed by the cat:(

Not killed thankfully - but he is in a Catatonic state. :pac:

Min

I still have some snow from the Saturday evening/night event, it is in sheltered areas but it shows it hasn't warmed up much since it fell.

mothel

So I can safely take my car into work tomorrow without having to worrying about struggling home in the evening through a blizzard from Dublin city centre to Tallaght? Or should I catch the Luas just in case??

Deep Easterly

Just seen Evelyn's forecat on TV. She had the word 'snow' written on the map with the 's' right over me! :eek::p

Was an encouraging forecast to be sure.

cherryghost

looks unlikely to snow around dublin, but dont rule it out. doubt it tho

mothel

Looks like I'm safe to drive according to rte weather! Just misses all of dublin county and city.

JanuarySnowstor

Well Evelyn's forecast showed heavy snow for most of the country away from East and South coasts tomorrow.
To put it mildly I doubt this will happen and the the Northern midlands is where I think will see snow, before it turns back to rain

joe199

game over for the east i recon but to thoes in the west and midlands enjoy the snow....... roll on spring!:mad: