Cold Spell Discussion cont: Tuesday, Wednesday - more heavy snow risk

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

Not at all. She is using the exact same charts as us. Certain people on here, at this stage, should be well capable of making forecasts without having to go near the media at all. It actually makes me laugh when people say "the Eagle" said this....."Evelyn" said that.....as if it means something. It means nothing because if you can read the charts - they are right there in front of you and it is very easy to come to your own conclusions often in far more detail then any media broadcast.

Weather forecasting is a lot more than just reading charts.

darkman2

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I rarely watch the weather now since we have access to the charts.
They are nearly always working on old models, though I do find the beeb very accurate and got last nights ppn and timing frightenly accurate!!

I agree. Hence why I very rarely watch or listen to any forecast aswell. We don't need to in reality.

JanuarySnowstor

Su Campu wrote: »

Weather forecasting is a lot more than just reading charts.

And people who get paid for doing it should give it their best effort, not go on the 9 0'clock weather using the morning's ECM charts etc.
We are all amateurs on here and as far as I can see do a better job, albeit ramping the cold a bit!

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

Weather forecasting is a lot more than just reading charts.

Yes, of course it is, but the charts are the end product after a complex system of analysis. TV forecasts are simply presentational for the masses, not complicated, because they don't need to be. They are not overly useful in the context of the wide variety of information openly available online.

Su Campu

I don't think I've ever seen a global pattern like this, with a practically straight polar jet and complete absence of Rossby waves. :eek:

darkman2

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

And people who get paid for doing it should give it their best effort, not go on the 9 0'clock weather using the morning's ECM charts etc.
We are all amateurs on here and as far as I can see do a better job, albeit ramping the cold a bit!

In fairness, the BBC is somewhat better updated from the UKMO a number of times a day.

I find it disappointing,the dissing of an experienced qualified,university educated in the field meteorologist like Evylyn here.
The fact that people think that the UK met office don't change their forecast run to run if necessary or base it on one from time to time is also disappointing.

Noaa openly discuss which run they use / which model they think is performing best at the time.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

In fairness, the BBC is somewhat better updated from the UKMO a number of times a day.

So are Met Éireann

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

So are Met Éireann

No, they don't. They use the 00z ECM until the following 00z ECM, occasionally dipping into that other model they use for short range, HIRLAM. Completely inadequate in this day and age.


BB nobody is dissing any particular forecaster in Met Éireann. Simply being realistic about an organisation that leaves alot to be desired in it's service to the public which we pay for. It's completely inadequate. Look at the Iceland Meteorlogical Agency - that is what Met Éireann should be asspiring to emulate, without Earthquake analysis of course.


The UK do change their forecasts (daily), of course, but you can hardly compare the UK Met Office to Met Éireann in terms of incompetency in public relations (though the UKMO do have their own issues with supposed AGW).

WolfeIRE

Some heavy precip heading my way. very slow moving

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Temp is 3c.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

No, they don't. They use the 00z ECM until the following 00z ECM, occasionally dipping into that other model they use for short range, HIRLAM. Completely inadequate in this day and age.


.

Met Éireann DO use the UKMO and have a cooperative agreement with Exeter. Unless that's changed in the last year or so.

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

Met Éireann DO use the UKMO and have a cooperative agreement with Exeter. Unless that's changed in the last year or so.

I have never seen them use UKMO data charts - im not aware of any agreement with them other then co operation through the ECMWF and on bouy's and data and the like. Met Éireann have a short range model they contribute to development with the Nordic States AFAIK. That's what they use for short range. It's uselessness illustrated wonderfully last night once again incidentally.

jasperok

hey wolfire
How long will that take to come our way?
Also dows anyone know what the chance of icey roads are for the next few days? in the clare area? Ikeep on seeing predictions on yr.no for -4 etc but no ice on the rooad then in the morning...

Su Campu

They use HIRLAM, ECMWF, UKMO and DWD. Read this

WolfeIRE

jasperok wrote: »

hey wolfire
How long will that take to come our way?
Also dows anyone know what the chance of icey roads are for the next few days? in the clare area? Ikeep on seeing predictions on yr.no for -4 etc but no ice on the rooad then in the morning...

those road surface temps would be about right for 8am jasperok. this is a great guide for you. ennis is included http://www.nra.ie/RoadWeatherInfo/Map/data/htm/WeatherTable.htm

That precip will affect a line north west from Lissycasey to Ennis to Gort. Very slow moving. Will be a wintry mix but nothing to get to excited about unless you are on top of Mount Callan or Slieve Elva.

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

They use HIRLAM, ECMWF, UKMO and DWD. Read this

They might use UKMO charts in house but I have never seen UKMO charts on a televised forecast from Met Éireann - have you? Or a DWD forecast? It's always HIRLAM and ECM charts. There is nothing stopping anybody from looking at charts from any model. (HIRLAM charts are available on wetterzentrale btw). But if they do have an agreement to be able to publish and use UKMO charts I have never seen them do it. And if that is the case then we really don't need Met Éireann at all. We can just get rid of it and let the UKMO do our forecasts.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

They might use UKMO charts in house but I have never seen UKMO charts on a televised forecast from Met Éireann - have you? Or a DWD forecast? It's always HIRLAM and ECM charts. There is nothing stopping anybody from looking at charts from any model. (HIRLAM charts are available on wetterzentrale btw). But if they do have an agreement to be able to publish and use UKMO charts I have never seen them do it. And if that is the case then we really don't need Met Éireann at all. We can just get rid of it and let the UKMO do our forecasts.

We (or at least I) was talking about what models they use for guidance when making their forecasts - which charts they display on RTE are of no importance. I seem to remember seeing Evelyn using UKMO (labelling it as such) on a transmission once but stand to be corrected on that. But in any case it's not important, as their work is done at that stage and the charts are purely there for window dressing in most cases. To say they get a whole forecast wrong because they only display two models on the TV is laughable

darkman2

I have no issue with Met Éireann using a variety of models - we use even more here and that's confusing enough but my issue is the service they give to the public. The website is a joke for example. I don't see what the harm is in sticking up some ECM synoptic and temperature charts for example like other websites do. There is not enough information on the Met Éireann website. The television forecasts, whilst I appreciate they go further then most other broadcasters in terms of timeline, are often incorrect although the average viewer will not realise it. They are incorrect because they consistently use 00z charts throughout the day and don't put up the 12z updates. It's the same on the radio bulletins. I cannot understand why that is. It is a major bug bear of mine. The warnings - the warnings are completely inadequate and how many times have Met Éireann failed to give appropriate warnings last year? Then there are all the other occasions of simply wrong outlooks. Im tiring talking about it. It's the incompetency that get's to me.


Anyway back OT. 12z charts coming out soon so we may have a better idea where we stand in relation to Tuesday.


12z GME is the first out





That's more like what we want to see for Tuesday/Wednesday....

Eveylyns exact words,I've just re watched it on the farming forecast were "Turning to snow further inland".
Thats away from the coast in anyone's parlance.
She said that in the context of the rain system moving up over the country and in the context of the East in particular.
The guidance she was using in the putting together of that forecast was no doubt telling her that the main thrust of the system based on the models she had available [at the time] was going into the UK.I've no doubt the guidance included the big three.

As for the graphics used on the tv forecasts,I'll have to say that I'm on su campu's side here in that Glasnevin will be sharing any information the UK met and others have.
We will have to be advecting colder air than I'm see'ing currently likely to be available tuesday for coastal snow in the East and that means in Dublin,you'll need to be at Lamb doyles or above or nearby for results.
It's a possibility for sure that even there will have rain and if something changes turning things colder,that we all will see snow.
Right now,I'm going for coastal sleety rain.

If I'm to be convinced otherwise something will have to change.
My opinion is based on,looking at the runs,looking at various tv forecasts and my experience of past events over a few decades of weather watching.
I think if I'm wrong something will have to have changed.

darkman2

12z GFS is more progressive then the European models bringing much milder air into the Southern half of the country on Wednesday with some snow ahead of rain. Not great. Winds go Southerly in fact. Really only Northern parts of Ulster getting appreciable snowfall. Wait to see what the UKMO has later and the ECM.

Snowaddict

I agree that coastal snowfall in highly unlikely in the East at present, but I would put the risk of a significant snow event across Mountainous areas in several regions in the coming week at 40% or greater. In addition, areas much lower from the midlands Northwards may well see snowfall.

The latest UKMO 12Z Guidance evolution is strikingly similar to that which occured at the end of December, except the main area of low pressure is even further south this time around. Based upon the 850mb temperature profile & Precipitation distribution maps, areas from the central midlands Northwards could well see snowfall to lower levels. Snowfall south of this should be restricted to about 500M ASL, perhaps slightly lower further inland.

I wouldn't rule out a significant snow event for these mountainous regions at the moment. Thereafter, UKMO has a very wintry pattern in evidence, with winds backing Northeasterly, Northerly & cyclonic variable, along with an embedded cold pattern.

Interestingly, this event is now at T+48 on NAE Guidance & the first localised signs of snowfall are showing up over the mountainous regions of Kerry. Also notable is that under the heavier precipitation, snowfall is even indicated across Southern England.

More twists & turns to come & it will quite possibly be a wintry week for some:

snow ghost

I know what kind of models I'd prefer Met Eireann to be using... and they could get the weather wrong all they wanted, I'd be more interested in their bikinis.

Evelyn, said possibility of a 'snow event' - quite a good forecast today I thought.

darkman2

Latest fax charts

Snow risk for everyone North of the Occluded front across the center of the country.








The snow may not reach the far North of the country. Temperatures rising to about 4C (6C in the far South) behind the front. 0 - 3C ahead of it where the snow is most likely (on coasts aswell). The Southeast and South should only have temporary falls before rain but even this is uncertain still.

kev9100

What are the odds on heavy snow hitting the city centre this week? Thanks.

Su Campu

The Dublin Airport GFS forecast soundings for 12Z, 15Z and 18Z Tuesday below are for just before, around, and after, respectively, the time the precipitation arrives (700hPa RH above 90%).

At 12Z, Temp +3°C, dewpoint -1°C, T850hPa -7°C, ThetaW 850Hpa +1°C. Upper frontal surface at 600hPa. Probable snowline ~100m.
At 15Z, Temp +3°C, dewpoint -0°C, T850hPa -6°C, ThetaW 850hPa +2°C. Upper frontal surface at ~650hPa. Probable snowline ~150m.
At 15Z, Temp +3°C, dewpoint +0°C, T850hPa -6°C, ThetaW 850hPa +3°C. Upper frontal surface at below ~700hPa. Probable snowline ~200-250m, depending on evaporative cooling taking place, which should be limited given the almost saturated low levels.

With the southeasterly winds, the snowlines further inland should be lower by probably around 50m.

darkman2

kev9100 wrote: »

What are the odds on heavy snow hitting the city centre this week? Thanks.

50/50...best guess. It's still uncertain.

Jako8

What are the odds on Cork (North West specifically) being hit by any snow at all?

pistolpetes11

Will it snow in my back garden while your at it !

Went for Spin up in the Dublin /Wicklow mts today in the Jeep , it was lovely up there , a tasty -1 for most of my time up there ,

I was driving so did not get pics but the passenger has some , i will get him to mail them over to me ! Loads of people in cars trying to drive past sally gap but they all got stuck !

It was actually like a different country up there !

I would have loved to go to the Kipure mast but did not know the route .

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Latest fax charts

Snow risk for everyone North of the Occluded front across the center of the country.


The snow may not reach the far North of the country. Temperatures rising to about 4C (6C in the far South) behind the front. 0 - 3C ahead of it where the snow is most likely (on coasts aswell). The Southeast and South should only have temporary falls before rain but even this is uncertain still.

Uncertain is the word.
That fax has the 528dam line from Newry to sligo..
I wouldn't want to be betting my last cent on snow unless well inland,well north of Dublin or on high ground above 600ft from wicklow northwards based on that and the marginal dp's,higher rh's advected in from the irish sea.

nacho libre

if this did come off as most of us here want it to. would it be reasonable to expect decent accumulations?
i'm thinking the ideal scenario would be for this occluded front to get stuck- and unlike before christmas- we end up with snow instead of rain and sleet for a full 24 hours. that would be very, very nice:D