Early July: Heatwave Potential

flutered · 02-07-2013 11:58pm

the high pressure from the south lasts a lot longer than the hp from the east, from the east seven days is the usual lenght of time it lasts, from the south all long lasting highs origionate from there

maquiladora · 02-07-2013 11:58pm

18Z GFS sticks with the warm theme with temps reaching the 20's on Saturday and staying in the 20's for every day for the rest of the run.

Just for fun, when the was the last time it was 25 at midnight in Galway? :

:P

shell820810 · 03-07-2013 7:32am

Woohoo we are for Galway for a week on Saturday!
Who needs Spain!

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS sticks with the warm theme with temps reaching the 20's on Saturday and staying in the 20's for every day for the rest of the run.

Just for fun, when the was the last time it was 25 at midnight in Galway? :

:P

pebbles21 · 03-07-2013 8:49am

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

They are night temps? Oh joy. There will be some fun trying to sleep then.....

:rolleyes:

leahyl · 03-07-2013 9:07am

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

They are night temps? Oh joy. There will be some fun trying to sleep then.....

I don't think you have to worry about that!!

sunbabe08 · 03-07-2013 9:10am

high temps during the day, low temps during the night. don't think we would be that "lucky" to get the high temps during the night as well. we're not living in Hawaii

Ruudi_Mentari · 03-07-2013 9:14am

Oh; nice coastal breeze for me

Super-Rush · 03-07-2013 9:54am

pebbles21 wrote: »

:rolleyes:

Excellent contribution.

pp_me · 03-07-2013 10:16am

Super-Rush wrote: »

Excellent contribution.

An even better contribution :P

Thargor · 03-07-2013 10:24am

So do we think a hot Saturday and Sunday in Galway is pretty much nailed on yet? I need the €€€

Keith96 · 03-07-2013 10:28am

Thargor wrote: »

So do we think a hot Saturday and Sunday in Galway is pretty much nailed on yet? I need the €€€

Sunday should be fine but Saturday could be damp with drizzle.

dopolahpec · 03-07-2013 11:21am

Fine, nay mighty fine charts again this morning, with high pressure just ballooning outwards after 72 hours with Ireland and the UK as the seeming centrepoint....

To say I am excited is an understatement...

This is my snowbunny moment...

We've had plenty winter wonderland since we last had a HOT JULY

BRING IT ON!!!

kkontour · 03-07-2013 11:38am

From Simon Keeling on twitter

Huge area of Atlantic fog west of Europe (purple on map) not wanting to go anywhere quickly http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsgfsopazoresuksailingvis.php … #ukweathet @swisweather

Could cause problems?

dopolahpec · 03-07-2013 1:05pm

kkontour wrote: »

From Simon Keeling on twitter

Could cause problems?

That feature won't be associated with the high pressure which is set to develop over Ireland according to current model output

Harps · 03-07-2013 1:25pm

Even better GFS this morning, high pressure right out to the end of the run on the 19th with temperatures in the mid-high 20's every day. Just about the best model run I've ever seen for heat in my 4 years or so of watching them :cool:

delw · 03-07-2013 1:30pm

How accurate are the cloud cover charts on [URL=]www.weatheronline.co.uk[/URL] from 72+

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 03-07-2013 1:36pm

delw wrote: »

How accurate are the cloud cover charts on [URL=]www.weatheronline.co.uk[/URL] from 72+

I have always found them to be completely off the wall !

Auldloon · 03-07-2013 3:50pm

Bring on the heat!!!!!

Saganist · 03-07-2013 4:23pm

Wow. I dont look at this forum for a week or two and come back to the hottest forecast in years. Woop.

Time to prepare the BBQ. And book next week off from work

Cheerful Spring · 03-07-2013 5:23pm

Ken ring predicted this in Jan of 2013. Hes been accurate before, but of course the science crowd thought he was full of it.Who's laughing now.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/weather-guru-predicts-ongoing-winter-226678.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/promise-of-summer-sun-ridiculous-1.1070412

relaxed · 03-07-2013 5:37pm

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Ken ring predicted this in Jan of 2013. Hes been accurate before, but of course the science crowd thought he was full of it.Who's laughing now.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/weather-guru-predicts-ongoing-winter-226678.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/promise-of-summer-sun-ridiculous-1.1070412

A stopped clock is right twice a day, he didn't predict any heatwave in June.

Cheerful Spring · 03-07-2013 5:44pm

relaxed wrote: »

A stopped clock is right twice a day, he didn't predict any heatwave in June.

He said June, July and August would be largely dry months. With heatwave likely in the first half of July.

We got a week of nice weather in June, but i would not call it a heatwave. Couple of days were very hot, but most of the days were only 19 degrees.

snowstorm445 · 03-07-2013 5:53pm

Looks set to be very warm in parts of the Midlands and Connacht if the GFS is anything to go by, it could climb to the high twenties in places. A bit cooler elsewhere but my main concern is with cloud cover. MÉ have hinted at coastal areas being cloudier than elsewhere, lets hope its only partly cloudy. There's nothing worse than a cloudy humid heatwave.

snowstorm445 · 03-07-2013 5:57pm

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Ken ring predicted this in Jan of 2013. Hes been accurate before, but of course the science crowd thought he was full of it.Who's laughing now.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/weather-guru-predicts-ongoing-winter-226678.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/promise-of-summer-sun-ridiculous-1.1070412

The same was said about Madden. There is no scientifically sound way to predict the weather almost 6 months beforehand, it just isn't possible in this part of the world. It really doesn't matter if he has been lucky before, you can always take a wild guess and end up being right (sort of) but if his methods don't stand up to scrutiny the "science crowd" have no reason to take him seriously.

DOCARCH · 03-07-2013 6:31pm

relaxed wrote: »

....heatwave in June.

?

downwiththatsor · 03-07-2013 6:34pm

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Ken ring predicted this in Jan of 2013. Hes been accurate before, but of course the science crowd thought he was full of it.Who's laughing now.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/weather-guru-predicts-ongoing-winter-226678.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/promise-of-summer-sun-ridiculous-1.1070412

So confident is he in his abilities that he specifically says the last 10 days of April will be fine,

It wasnt fine where i was?

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03953&ndays=10&ano=2013&mes=04&day=30&hora=00&ord=REV&Send=Send

I take any Long Range forecasts with a grain of salt, next week does look very promising now in a very close to reliable time frame.

skinnyboy · 03-07-2013 7:03pm

How is it looking for waterford for friday??

Old diesel · 03-07-2013 7:56pm

relaxed wrote: »

A stopped clock is right twice a day, he didn't predict any heatwave in June.

Ken Ring is even having a go of predicting the 2014 weather in one of the linked articles by suggesting 2014 "won't be as good" :rolleyes:.

pad199207 · 03-07-2013 8:56pm

Stunning shows from both GFS and ECM this evening! Proper Eye Candy

leahyl · 03-07-2013 9:32pm

Jean really holding back there on the forecast I thought! She said it would be warm on Sat and Sun but barely said anything about next week!

Thargor · 03-07-2013 9:34pm

Sounded like Saturday was going to be pure crap in Galway

pad199207 · 03-07-2013 9:36pm

leahyl wrote: »

Jean really holding back there on the forecast I thought! She said it would be warm on Sat and Sun but barely said anything about next week!

Well its still only Wednesday :rolleyes:

snowstorm445 · 03-07-2013 9:40pm

leahyl wrote: »

Jean really holding back there on the forecast I thought! She said it would be warm on Sat and Sun but barely said anything about next week!

Met Éireann generally hold back from forecasting more than 5 days in advance (probably because its just too risky forecasting that far ahead). Although the summary at the end did show nice sunny weather for Monday with temperatures in the mid-twenties.

vicwatson · 03-07-2013 9:46pm

Although the summary at the end did show nice sunny weather for Monday with temperatures in the mid-twenties.

Sure did, what's the likelihood of this good spell holding out until beyond the following weekend - say 12th onwards - if it all falls into place next week ?

Lucreto · 03-07-2013 9:52pm

Planning a BBQ this weekend but it is not looking the best. Saturday looks like it will be cloudy and Sunday doesn't look any better.

snowstorm445 · 03-07-2013 9:54pm

vicwatson wrote: »

Sure did, what's the likelihood of this good spell holding out until beyond the following weekend - say 12th onwards - if it all falls into place next week ?

Far too early to tell, but high pressure systems are notoriously difficult to shift once they set up shop, so I would expect anticyclonic weather to stick around for a good while yet. Some recent models were showing a thundery (but still fairly warm) breakdown but I honestly wouldn't be looking that far ahead. For now (it could change) it looks like it will stay fairly settled for the forseeable future.

pauldry · 03-07-2013 9:56pm

Lucreto wrote: »

Planning a BBQ this weekend but it is not looking the best. Saturday looks like it will be cloudy and Sunday doesn't look any better.

It will be drizzly in the west Saturday but warm Sunday and Monday and then very warm for a couple of days before temps back off to 21 or 22

mike65 · 03-07-2013 10:36pm

leahyl wrote: »

Jean really holding back there on the forecast I thought! She said it would be warm on Sat and Sun but barely said anything about next week!

Thought the same, given the nature of the pressure charts you'd think she'd have let rip with a "yeharrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!" its not that hard to predict weather with some confidence when an Azores HP drops anchor.

Storm 10 · 03-07-2013 10:50pm

Did anyone see the picture that ME had on their forecast after the six news it showed a frozen waterfall , this is July not December whats wrong with them

vicwatson · 03-07-2013 10:59pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Did anyone see the picture that ME had on their forecast after the six news it showed a frozen waterfall , this is July not December whats wrong with them

Are you sure it wasn't a slow shutter speed used when taking a picture of the waterfall, hence it gives a drag effect?

mike65 · 03-07-2013 11:06pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Did anyone see the picture that ME had on their forecast after the six news it showed a frozen waterfall , this is July not December whats wrong with them

They have had that up there for a while now, maybe in December we'll have

Bsal · 04-07-2013 12:48am

Looking good in the Dublin area from Friday, at last we'll get a bit of summer

telekon · 04-07-2013 2:04am

Bsal wrote: »

Looking good in the Dublin area from Friday, at last we'll get a bit of summer

What do you mean, "at last"?

This summer has been great so far, only a couple of days in June that were really bad but on the whole its been largely dry, warm and even sunny. What about that first week in June? That was fantastic!

leahyl · 04-07-2013 7:03am

Anybody got any more charts they could share this morning?! Getting so excited about this now!

dopolahpec · 04-07-2013 7:29am

leahyl wrote: »

Anybody got any more charts they could share this morning?! Getting so excited about this now!

Can't post charts on my phone but the ECM is out to 144 hours so far and it is just fantastic.

leahyl · 04-07-2013 7:34am

dopolahpec wrote: »

Can't post charts on my phone but the ECM is out to 144 hours so far and it is just fantastic.

Thanks!! I really hope this lasts up to July 18th (Bruce Springsteen concert!)

boatbuilder · 04-07-2013 7:36am

dopolahpec wrote: »

Can't post charts on my phone but the ECM is out to 144 hours so far and it is just fantastic.

To my untrained eye, gfs looks good out to the 16th/17th.

leahyl · 04-07-2013 7:40am

boatbuilder wrote: »

To my untrained eye, gfs looks good out to the 16th/17th.

Haha knowing my luck it will prob last up to the 18th and then piss rain on the 18th :-P

dopolahpec · 04-07-2013 7:52am

leahyl wrote: »

Haha knowing my luck it will prob last up to the 18th and then piss rain on the 18th :-P

The GFS is showing a slight retrogression west of the high early next week. This is causing some concern on a well known English weather forum as it would mean eastern england may experience lower temps. However, still el scorchio for l'irlande

leahyl · 04-07-2013 9:17am

Just reading MT's forecast there and when he says temps of 25-30 "inland" what does inland mean?

I'm in Cork City which isn't coastal but I guess it's not inland either!

Early July: Heatwave Potential

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