GAA Betting

Rasputin11 · 21-04-2015 4:35pm

shmeee wrote: »

Ladbrokes had it as 37.5 alright on Saturday evening and suspended it late that night. I know punters who got on and got paid out.

No wonder they're gone into administration.

Wexford96 · 25-04-2015 1:50pm

Would I be right in thinking Cork Hurlers are value at 9/2 to win All Irl this year.
I'm no expert, just looking for feedback.
KK dont seem to be the threat they were-Tommy Walsh & Henry gone. Hickey not there to man the square.
Tipp seem hot and cold. Some lovely stickmen, particularly up front. The Mahers are fine swashbucking lads, but are they as good as the bonners, delaney, ryan etc who won all irelands for Tipp? What Im saying is, I fear Tipp defense can leak 5 goals to a side on a bad day.
I dont think Galway are a threat.
I know nothing about Clare (yet I see them as the main danger).
Apart from that, there are no contenders imo.
My question is, are Cork value at 9/2?
Thnks.

robbiezero · 25-04-2015 2:00pm

Wexford96 wrote: »

Would I be right in thinking Cork Hurlers are value at 9/2 to win All Irl this year.
I'm no expert, just looking for feedback.
KK dont seem to be the threat they were-Tommy Walsh & Henry gone. Hickey not there to man the square.
Tipp seem hot and cold. Some lovely stickmen, particularly up front. The Mahers are fine swashbucking lads, but are they as good as the bonners, delaney, ryan etc who won all irelands for Tipp? What Im saying is, I fear Tipp defense can leak 5 goals to a side on a bad day.
I dont think Galway are a threat.
I know nothing about Clare (yet I see them as the main danger).
Apart from that, there are no contenders imo.
My question is, are Cork value at 9/2?
Thnks.

Not for me anyway. Would want about 6/1 at least. Think Tipp and KK are still a little ahead of the rest and I think the level of hurling goes up a little once it comes to the knock out hurling after the provincial championships and I have seen nothing to indicate Cork have improved enough to be good enough at the business end. Were very easily beaten last year by Tipp, should be better than that this year, but I'm not convinced by their defence

Rasputin11 · 26-04-2015 12:44pm

I see Kevin O Driscoll is 11/10 over 0.5 points today for Cork. Is he likely to play deep as a sweeper?

Mountainlad · 26-04-2015 1:10pm

Wexford96 wrote: »

Would I be right in thinking Cork Hurlers are value at 9/2 to win All Irl this year.
I'm no expert, just looking for feedback.
KK dont seem to be the threat they were-Tommy Walsh & Henry gone. Hickey not there to man the square.
Tipp seem hot and cold. Some lovely stickmen, particularly up front. The Mahers are fine swashbucking lads, but are they as good as the bonners, delaney, ryan etc who won all irelands for Tipp? What Im saying is, I fear Tipp defense can leak 5 goals to a side on a bad day.
I dont think Galway are a threat.
I know nothing about Clare (yet I see them as the main danger).
Apart from that, there are no contenders imo.
My question is, are Cork value at 9/2?
Thnks.

Cork are continuously the worst priced County when it comes to hurling. Their odds are always inhibitive.

They have to win a minimum of 4 games to win the all irelands so the prices for them to qualify in each game would be something like:

1/2
1/2
1/2
8/13

for 9/2 to be an accurate price for the all-ireland. Waterford have demonstrated how competitive Munster is and will push Cork all the way next Sunday and in June. Then they will have to play the winner of the far side (if they manage to beat Waterford), which includes 3 of your other top 4 favourites for the all ireland.

Kilkenny have to beat Wexford to make an all ireland quarter, and then presumably one of Dublin or Galway who have question marks over them though Dublin look to have improved. They'll be there or thereabouts again.

Waterford are 15/8 to win next Sunday, having not lost a game and just having deservingly beaten the pre game favourites for the league while Cork got out of jail against Dublin they are still only being given around a 35% chance to win the match. Seems odd to me.

Wexford96 · 26-04-2015 7:59pm

Mountainlad wrote: »

Cork are continuously the worst priced County when it comes to hurling. Their odds are always inhibitive.

They have to win a minimum of 4 games to win the all irelands so the prices for them to qualify in each game would be something like:

1/2
1/2
1/2
8/13

for 9/2 to be an accurate price for the all-ireland. Waterford have demonstrated how competitive Munster is and will push Cork all the way next Sunday and in June. Then they will have to play the winner of the far side (if they manage to beat Waterford), which includes 3 of your other top 4 favourites for the all ireland.

Kilkenny have to beat Wexford to make an all ireland quarter, and then presumably one of Dublin or Galway who have question marks over them though Dublin look to have improved. They'll be there or thereabouts again.

Waterford are 15/8 to win next Sunday, having not lost a game and just having deservingly beaten the pre game favourites for the league while Cork got out of jail against Dublin they are still only being given around a 35% chance to win the match. Seems odd to me.

That's a great breakdown-you've put me off backing them.

CheltenhamJ · 26-04-2015 8:30pm

Clare are the ones where there might be a bit of juice in price after recent farce

Rasputin11 · 27-04-2015 1:10pm

I hear PP made an error paying out on a club match in Tipp, Silvermines beating Moneygall, which actually ended in a draw.

shmeee · 27-04-2015 2:27pm

Rasputin11 wrote: »

I hear PP made an error paying out on a club match in Tipp, Silvermines beating Moneygall, which actually ended in a draw.

Same happened with Moyne against Kickhams in Tipp. Paddy paid out on Moyne win but in fact they lost. They have since emailed the punters won wrongly won money and their accounts are in negative balance therefore if money was withdrawn.

Same will happen with the Silvermines game sure.

You'll get away with it if you've money taken out and never gonna use them again.

Rasputin11 · 27-04-2015 5:30pm

shmeee wrote: »

Same happened with Moyne against Kickhams in Tipp. Paddy paid out on Moyne win but in fact they lost. They have since emailed the punters won wrongly won money and their accounts are in negative balance therefore if money was withdrawn.

Same will happen with the Silvermines game sure.

You'll get away with it if you've money taken out and never gonna use them again.

They can surely stop the money being paid out to people with the 48 hours it takes to process the bet.

shmeee · 28-04-2015 3:22am

Rasputin11 wrote: »

They can surely stop the money being paid out to people with the 48 hours it takes to process the bet.

I know lads who backed Moyne and got paid after the game. Funds were withdrawn within a few hours and no longer with Paddy.

Only takes 3-5 hours to get it to your moneybrookers account and out of Paddys account.

mjp · 28-04-2015 10:46am

Know boylesports made a mess up during schools final in Croker 2 weeks ago between pobalscoil Corca Dhuibhne and roscommon CBS whereby they mixed up the two teams and did this for whole match resulting in fancy prices being given on winners. Went as far as declaring roscommon school as winners whilst PCD were accepting cup. This game was televised live and think confusion arose from similarity in colours of two teams and odds compiler paying no heed to commentary. Fact that grand national was on at same time prob meant that this rick was missed by a lot as website was down for large duration of match

Warper · 28-04-2015 2:18pm

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

Clare are the ones where there might be a bit of juice in price after recent farce

I would hold off backing Clare. I agree they are the ones with the most potential but i can see getting knocked out of Munster so that would be the time to back them when they have to go through the backdoor

CD-R 80 · 06-05-2015 8:56am

Dublin SFC starting this week. Cuala @ 13/8 and Castleknock @ 13/8 big big value.

robbiezero · 06-05-2015 8:57am

CD-R 80 wrote: »

Dublin SFC starting this week. Cuala @ 13/8 and Castleknock @ 13/8 big big value.

What do you think of TempleOgue SS at 13/8 vs UCD (in from 2/1 with PP). UCD have exams around this time, might not be at full strength.

CD-R 80 · 06-05-2015 11:17am

robbiezero wrote: »

What do you think of TempleOgue SS at 13/8 vs UCD (in from 2/1 with PP). UCD have exams around this time, might not be at full strength.

TSS missing both O Garas...

I hear UCD may be struggling with players playing local championships and exams going ahead on Sat... its a game best avoided from a betting perspective.

keysersoze0330 · 08-05-2015 10:10am

Monaghan to beat Cavan at 8/13 is a bet ill be taking today. Should be a typical derby game but Monaghan should be winning this by at least 4-5 points. best price powers

robbiezero · 08-05-2015 12:26pm

CD-R 80 wrote: »

TSS missing both O Garas...

I hear UCD may be struggling with players playing local championships and exams going ahead on Sat... its a game best avoided from a betting perspective.

TSS taking money all week. Odds on now with PP and ladbrokes. Students must really be struggling for a team.

ciaran1988 · 15-05-2015 3:12am

St Brigids 8/11
Meath Minors 8/11

Just short of 2/1 Paddy Power

Rasputin11 · 15-05-2015 1:02pm

I think Drom-Inch are a good bet at 7/4 to beat Thurles in the Tipp Mid Championship on Sunday. Thurles rumoured to be without Paudie Maher, Denis Maher, Stephen Cahill and possibly Michael Cahill, 7/4 is with Boyle, 11/8 with PP but it opened at 7/4 also.

***Drom into best price evens now.

Error on PP for Offaly Longford game, Longford to score a penalty is 18/1 but should be 5/1.

shmeee · 16-05-2015 4:56pm

Rasputin11 wrote: »

I think Drom-Inch are a good bet at 7/4 to beat Thurles in the Tipp Mid Championship on Sunday. Thurles rumoured to be without Paudie Maher, Denis Maher, Stephen Cahill and possibly Michael Cahill, 7/4 is with Boyle, 11/8 with PP but it opened at 7/4 also.

***Drom into best price evens now.

Sars @ evens is the biggest price they have been in Tipp club games since 2008. Unreal.

Wouldn't touch Drom now at the price. Drom aren't exactly firing on all cylinders yet this year.

Rasputin11 · 16-05-2015 7:44pm

Rasputin11 wrote: »

I think Drom-Inch are a good bet at 7/4 to beat Thurles in the Tipp Mid Championship on Sunday. Thurles rumoured to be without Paudie Maher, Denis Maher, Stephen Cahill and possibly Michael Cahill, 7/4 is with Boyle, 11/8 with PP but it opened at 7/4 also.

***Drom into best price evens now.

Error on PP for Offaly Longford game, Longford to score a penalty is 18/1 but should be 5/1.

They missed a penalty the dirty hoors:mad::mad:

spurshero · 17-05-2015 3:02pm

Really fancy galway over 1.5 goals against Leitrim @10 to 11with pp . Cummins Walsh Lundy comer and o griofa all know where the net is

djPSB · 17-05-2015 3:21pm

Horrible conditions in Ballybofey.

Shouldn't be a high scoring game.

Plus Tyrone should have the blanket defence out in force.

shmeee · 17-05-2015 5:04pm

shmeee wrote: »

Sars @ evens is the biggest price they have been in Tipp club games since 2008. Unreal.

Wouldn't touch Drom now at the price. Drom aren't exactly firing on all cylinders yet this year.

Sars v Drom finished a draw, 18 points each.

Sars better team and ahead for most of the game. Ref gave Drom a very soft free last puck of game to level it

laoisman11 · 22-05-2015 2:15pm

I have been working on a prediction model for Gaelic football inter-county games (based on a variation of the rankings system for which there is a thread in the GAA forum) and thought that I'd put up some predictions here to see how they work out. (If anyone wants a detailed description of what I've done, I'd be happy to provide it.)

Although the predictions are from a computer model, they will be less accurate than some of the more intuitive posters here. However, what I am interested in is where the model throws up results at least 3 points different from the spread offered by the bookies. Last weekend, it predicted Laois by 9 whereas the spread offered was 4.

I'm using PP (convenience and force of habit) but I'm sure others will have other possibilities.

The predictions for this weekend are:

Clare +2
Monaghan +2
Roscommon +12

Nothing much different from PP, so I'll be holding off...

robbiezero · 22-05-2015 2:19pm

laoisman11 wrote: »

I have been working on a prediction model for Gaelic football inter-county games (based on a variation of the rankings system for which there is a thread in the GAA forum) and thought that I'd put up some predictions here to see how they work out. (If anyone wants a detailed description of what I've done, I'd be happy to provide it.)

Although the predictions are from a computer model, they will be less accurate than some of the more intuitive posters here. However, what I am interested in is where the model throws up results at least 3 points different from the spread offered by the bookies. Last weekend, it predicted Laois by 9 whereas the spread offered was 4.

I'm using PP (convenience and force of habit) but I'm sure others will have other possibilities.

The predictions for this weekend are:
Clare +2

Monaghan +2

Roscommon +12

Nothing much different from PP, so I'll be holding off...

Thought the Laois game was 7 points (at least just before the game started).

laoisman11 · 22-05-2015 2:20pm

robbiezero wrote: »

Thought the Laois game was 7 points (at least just before the game started).

I had seen 4 earlier in the week.....

keane2097 · 22-05-2015 2:27pm

laoisman11 wrote: »

I have been working on a prediction model for Gaelic football inter-county games (based on a variation of the rankings system for which there is a thread in the GAA forum) and thought that I'd put up some predictions here to see how they work out. (If anyone wants a detailed description of what I've done, I'd be happy to provide it.)

Although the predictions are from a computer model, they will be less accurate than some of the more intuitive posters here. However, what I am interested in is where the model throws up results at least 3 points different from the spread offered by the bookies. Last weekend, it predicted Laois by 9 whereas the spread offered was 4.

I'm using PP (convenience and force of habit) but I'm sure others will have other possibilities.

The predictions for this weekend are:
Clare +2

Monaghan +2

Roscommon +12

Nothing much different from PP, so I'll be holding off...

Is your model spitting out results in whole points or have you broken down to 0.5 or 0.25 of a point?

laoisman11 · 22-05-2015 2:33pm

keane2097 wrote: »

Is your model spitting out results in whole points or have you broken down to 0.5 or 0.25 of a point?

I think it was to 5 decimal places but I rounded it to the closest whole number. If to within 0.25 of a point would be more useful to people, I can give the prediction to one decimal place.......

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