GAA Betting

yabadabado

Good tipping lads.Did the Overs double.

Rasputin11

shmeee wrote: »

Lovely stuff

Done the double with overs in Laois game.

A great Sunday's betting.

The overs got up in the Laois game without a goal which would be unusual.

laoisman11

Output from the prediction model for next weekend's games:

• Kildare by 0.3 (PP say 1)
• Meath by 11.2 (PP say 10)
• Westmeath by 2.7 (PP say 2)
• Mayo by 2.4 (PP say 2)
• Cork by 9.8 (PP have 8)
• Kerry by 6.4 (PP have 6)
• Donegal by 2.0 (PP have 2)

Absolutely nothing standing out there........hopefully the qualifier games will throw up something interesting.

Rasputin11

Kilkenny -5 against Wexford at evens looks a nice price.

retalivity

Looking at a fourfold for provincial winners in the football, Dublin/Kerry/Mayo/Donegal at 15/2ish

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

retalivity wrote: »

Looking at a fourfold for provincial winners in the football, Dublin/Kerry/Mayo/Donegal at 15/2ish

looks decent price.I presume Cork are favourites to win in Munster and Galway favourites in Connaught? that why it's so big?

retalivity

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

looks decent price.I presume Cork are favourites to win in Munster and Galway favourites in Connaught? that why it's so big?

No, only non-favourites are Donegal (monaghan are favourites for Ulster). Using decimal odds...

Mayo 1.83 (5/6)
Dublin 1.08 (1/12)
Kerry 1.5 (1/2)
Donegal 2.87 (23/8 to be exact)

Fourfold of 8.56 = 15/2

yabadabado

laoisman11 wrote: »

Output from the prediction model for next weekend's games:

• Kildare by 0.3 (PP say 1)
• Meath by 11.2 (PP say 10)
• Westmeath by 2.7 (PP say 2)
• Mayo by 2.4 (PP say 2)
• Cork by 9.8 (PP have 8)
• Kerry by 6.4 (PP have 6)
• Donegal by 2.0 (PP have 2)

Absolutely nothing standing out there........hopefully the qualifier games will throw up something interesting.

Whats the prediction model ?Link ?

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

retalivity wrote: »

No, only non-favourites are Donegal (monaghan are favourites for Ulster). Using decimal odds...

Mayo 1.83 (5/6)
Dublin 1.08 (1/12)
Kerry 1.5 (1/2)
Donegal 2.87 (23/8 to be exact)

Fourfold of 8.56 = 15/2

Thanks, havent had a decent look at it too caught up in the American sports at the moment. Cork and Galway must be decent prices so.

ShamoBuc

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Thanks, havent had a decent look at it too caught up in the American sports at the moment. Cork and Galway must be decent prices so.

Cork haven't a hope of winning Munster. Tip will give Kerry a good game but Kerry should win handy by the end. Kerry will put a good score on Cork in Killarney I think.

laoisman11

yabadabado wrote: »

Whats the prediction model ?Link ?

Discussed in this thread from post 4107 onwards http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95585001&postcount=4107

Mountainlad

Mountainlad wrote: »

Laois v Offaly:

Laois are at home in Portlaoise on Sunday and to be fair they have been very competitive there in the first round of the championship proper v Galway the last two years. They haven't been in the same form this year but I've no doubt in my mind they'd have beaten Offaly if they faced them last year. They lost in the league but that will add to the motivation. Sounds like recent events may galvanize them too and to be honest I think there is very little in it. Offaly are in better stead so it seems this year but still can't justify the prices and Laois have 3 games under their belt in preparation.

Laois 11/4 Skybet

Comfortable for them

keane2097

laoisman11 wrote: »

Output from the prediction model for next weekend's games:

• Kildare by 0.3 (PP say 1)
• Meath by 11.2 (PP say 10)
• Westmeath by 2.7 (PP say 2)
• Mayo by 2.4 (PP say 2)
• Cork by 9.8 (PP have 8)
• Kerry by 6.4 (PP have 6)
• Donegal by 2.0 (PP have 2)

Absolutely nothing standing out there........hopefully the qualifier games will throw up something interesting.

FWIW, back when I used to put a considerable amount of time into handicapping GAA I would have take a ~2 point discrepancy between my model and the bookies' model as a pretty solid bet.

If your model is regularly differing by more than a point or two from the bookies' line I'd suspect something wrong with the model.

laoisman11

keane2097 wrote: »

FWIW, back when I used to put a considerable amount of time into handicapping GAA I would have take a ~2 point discrepancy between my model and the bookies' model as a pretty solid bet.

If your model is regularly differing by more than a point or two from the bookies' line I'd suspect something wrong with the model.

I suppose I'm a bit cautious as I'm only validating the model results against the handicap so that's why I'm waiting for a +3 point discrepancy before putting money on the outcome. Compiling this info now will allow me to go back at the end of the year and see if I can narrow the discrepancy limit (as I have not managed to find a source of odds for games already played - that would make the validation of what I am doing so much easier!)

In the 7 games for this weekend, the model is within 2 points of the spread offered by PP for all games, but I don't think that a model which gives exactly the same outcome as that presented by the bookies has much value. I'd value more highly a prediction system that gave an outcome different to the bookies less than 10% of the time AND was correct in that assumption more than 75% of the time, rather than one which regularly throws up outliers, or one which corresponds exactly to what the bookies offer.

In any case, I believe that there is a lot of randomness in GAA results which makes exact spread betting a bit of a lottery (i.e. nothing like a last minute penalty when the game is already won to upset the spread betting). If you have managed to construct a model in which you have confidence in an outcome at approx 2 points different than whats offered on the market (and assuming that the model regularly throws up these variations, and is correct most of the time), I'd have to come to the assumption that you've retired early!

keane2097

laoisman11 wrote: »

I suppose I'm a bit cautious as I'm only validating the model results against the handicap so that's why I'm waiting for a +3 point discrepancy before putting money on the outcome. Compiling this info now will allow me to go back at the end of the year and see if I can narrow the discrepancy limit (as I have not managed to find a source of odds for games already played - that would make the validation of what I am doing so much easier!)

In the 7 games for this weekend, the model is within 2 points of the spread offered by PP for all games, but I don't think that a model which gives exactly the same outcome as that presented by the bookies has much value. I'd value more highly a prediction system that gave an outcome different to the bookies less than 10% of the time AND was correct in that assumption more than 75% of the time, rather than one which regularly throws up outliers, or one which corresponds exactly to what the bookies offer.

In any case, I believe that there is a lot of randomness in GAA results which makes exact spread betting a bit of a lottery (i.e. nothing like a last minute penalty when the game is already won to upset the spread betting). If you have managed to construct a model in which you have confidence in an outcome at approx 2 points different than whats offered on the market (and assuming that the model regularly throws up these variations, and is correct most of the time), I'd have to come to the assumption that you've retired early!

The point you have to remember is that when betting at 10/11 you're going to be wrong a lot of the time.

If you're hoping to only make winning bets you may as well give up. Your model only needs to predict winners correctly at a rate of 54% to be profitable at typical handicap betting odds.

Warper

Kildare ht ft this weekend @ 12-5 Boyles.

They should have won last weekend and can only improve now with a game under their belt.

Tipp could give Kerry a run for their money in Munster, they were + 7 at the start of the week but now + 6. Kerry normally start off slow in Munster and i can see a 3 pt win for Kerry.

Donegal ht ft and Mayo ht ft @ around 11-10 each interests me in a double

spurshero

Does a 9 pt start for Clare look massive against cork or is it just me

keysersoze0330

spurshero wrote: »

Does a 9 pt start for Clare look massive against cork or is it just me

Wouldn't say it's massive. I'd say it's about right. Cork should be scoring 2 goals minimum here.

Warper

Warper wrote: »

Kildare ht ft this weekend @ 12-5 Boyles.

They should have won last weekend and can only improve now with a game under their belt.

Tipp could give Kerry a run for their money in Munster, they were + 7 at the start of the week but now + 6. Kerry normally start off slow in Munster and i can see a 3 pt win for Kerry.

Donegal ht ft and Mayo ht ft @ around 11-10 each interests me in a double

typical kildare pt down at ht yet slaughter laois

KevIRL

Whats the fancies today folks? Need a few bets for interest in the football

PaddyCar

KevIRL wrote: »

Whats the fancies today folks? Need a few bets for interest in the football

Expect Meath to beat the 11 point handicap against Wicklow

Sir montygom

I'd be hopeful of cork -10 v Clare @13/10 and I'll throw in a cork 1st goal scorer or two as 1st 15mins is double bubble in pp!

Donegal ht/ft at 11/10

I would think Kerry are too cute to be caught cold by tipp and will produce big game today and see off tipp with 5/6 points to spare!

ShamoBuc

Never saw this type of bet before in gaa but I like it,

Kerry to win and both teams to score a goal 5/4

spurshero

Mayo 2 or more goals 7 to 4 . Galway still can't defend !!!

manafana

spurshero wrote: »

Mayo 2 or more goals 7 to 4 . Galway still can't defend !!!

given that also like the 6/1 on Mayo o2.5 goals with boyles that looks a touch big.

marco_polo

spurshero wrote: »

Does a 9 pt start for Clare look massive against cork or is it just me

Not really with a fully fit panel maybe but we are missing at least 4 first choice forwards amongst which are most of our biggest scoring players. Even if we do well in the possession stakes today I can't see where the points will come from unfortunately so it could be a long day for Clare.

robbiezero

PaddyCar wrote: »

Expect Meath to beat the 11 point handicap against Wicklow

Ya, Still some -10 available at evens. Wicklow over 8.5 points at evens with Paddy Power is one to think about. Seems very low especially if game fizzles out as a contest well before the end.

shamrock55

Think im gonna go for

westmeath
donegal
mayo
kerry

all to win, and im throwing in rafael nadal aswell:D comes in around 3/1

Im still a bit iffy on donegal and mayo though

sboyle01

shamrock55 wrote: »

Think im gonna go for

westmeath
donegal
mayo
kerry

all to win, and im throwing in rafael nadal aswell:D comes in around 3/1

Im still a bit iffy on donegal and mayo though

That's the two i'm going for today. Donegal and Mayo. Can't see Galway beating Mayo and Donegal will have it tough but should have too much quality in the end.

Trimm Trabb

Donegal are 5/6 to score over 18 (already on 12 at HT) - this should come in pretty handy unless Armagh up their game substantially.