Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Jamie2k9 · 02-04-2021 4:54pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Its not a choice if it mandatory hotel quarantine is illegal, as the legal experts are advising. Austria will be off the list very shortly apparently.

You're the one claiming the Attorney General and Law Society President's legal advice is wrong, and that you know better, so you're the one who needs to provide evidence to substantiate your claim. Specifically the points raised above:

1) How does the MHQ not contravene Article 45 of the EU Treaty? --
“The concern is that if you are saying to workers coming from a different country or indeed Irish citizens coming here that you can’t move freely to a job from a different country that could create a problem within EU law.”"

2) How does the MHQ not fall foul of proportionality laws? --
"While the Government is entitled to restrict human and Constitutional rights for public health reasons – this must be done on a ‘proportional’ basis.“There is a worry that if there are certain countries that are not that dissimilar to Ireland in terms of COVID numbers, by saying to people that they can’t leave the hotel for 12 days that is not a proportional restriction on their rights,” he said.

3) How can you legally enforce MHQ on Irish citizens who can't afford the quarantine? --
Mr Gilhooly said there are “further concerns” about the high cost of the quarantine system. “Not everyone has €1,800,” he said. “In fact, most people don’t have that so if, for instance, you are an Irish citizen stranded abroad and you wanted to get back and you found you had to do the hotel quarantine for that period and you didn’t have €1,800, what would happen then? “Does that mean you can’t come back? Does that mean you will end up being sued for that amount in the future or what does it mean?

AQ only flags these concerns once the big powerhouse of EU (France and Germany) become a problem. Austria would have been removed from the list immediately. Incompetent AG or keeping his employer from having to implement unpopular decisions...

Point 1 - Borders can be closed in under public health reasons.
Point 2 - if they were similar to Ireland they would not be on the list.
Point 3 - lots of ways to resolve that.

The Government never wanted hotel quarantine and public pressure forced there hand so they created a terrible system and continue to stumble from one mess to another.

FG don't support hotel quarantine at all and Dep of Foreign Affairs ran by a FG minister made sure the EU and US wouldn't make the list.

MrMusician18 · 02-04-2021 5:13pm

Blut2 wrote: »

But again, if both the the Attorney General and the Former President of the Law Society of Ireland have said its not legally possible, and have offered reasons why, how exactly are they wrong?

Here are just a few of the points:

https://www.newstalk.com/news/mandatory-hotel-quarantine-expansion-facing-range-of-legal-difficulties-1173874

If you're claiming the government is just "using it as an excuse" and they could easily "put an outright ban in place for 3 months until Europe catch's up on vaccinations if they were really concerned about rising cases" then you're going to have to explain why exactly the above advice from a legal expert is wrong, and you know better.

The above legal expert needs to explain the difference between Austria as one EU member state and Germany France. There is no provision in the treaties relating to a hierarchy of importance for member states. If it's illegal for France and Germany, it's illegal for Austria now. If it's illegal to quarantine Irish citizens travelling from the proposed listed countries, it's illegal from the listed countries now. The AG of either asleep or incompetent to not have noticed such inconsistencies or this is political advice. The AG is a political appointment and is a member of government.

In addition, the EU treaties allow for the suspension of free movement in the interests of public health. Furthermore there are no treaties around the movement between the US and Ireland.

The issue is a realpolitik one. The commission do not want States exercising this right under the treaties since it undermines the concept of EU unity in a crisis. Remember the commission did SFA when States closed borders as a result of the migrant crisis. It also will embolden States that have a more fractious relationship when a very pro EU state decides to go it's own way. The government doesn't want to restrict travel anyway, particularly business travel and the movement of execs in and out of the country as that would be long term damaging for the economy. This has been evident that this has been the policy for a long time since the government was very slow to implement tough restrictions on travel, choosing instead to caution and encourage people to not travel.

Jack1985 · 02-04-2021 8:35pm

Fully vaccinated people can travel at low risk to themselves, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Friday, but travel still isn't recommended at this time because of rising numbers of coronavirus cases.

The agency said that as long as coronavirus precautions are taken, including mask wearing, fully vaccinated people can travel within the United States without getting tested for Covid-19 before or self-quarantining after.

For international travel, fully vaccinated people don't need a Covid-19 test prior to travel -- unless it is required by the destination -- and do not need to self-quarantine after returning to the United States. They should still have a negative Covid-19 test before boarding a flight to the US, and a follow up test three to five days after their return, the CDC noted.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/02/health/cdc-travel-guidance-fully-vaccinated-wellness/index.html

US CDC begins roadmap to reopening the United States, no confirmed dates yet for Foreign Nationals entry, CNBC reporting mid-May for this to occur.

The Irish Gov should not be mandating Quarantine Hotels for vaccinated individuals, the Israel addition is the biggest mockery of where we are today - I'd Imagine International Press didn't report it as it was on April Fool's Day this debacle was announced.

Jamie2k9 · 02-04-2021 11:14pm

Glad to see others hold a view like me:

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney have taken a high-risk political gamble in preventing any more EU countries being added to the State’s mandatory hotel quarantining list.

Despite skyrocketing levels of transmission across Europe, Varadkar and Coveney moved to block attempts by Acting Chief Medical Officer Ronan Glynn and Health Minister Stephen Donnelly to add countries including France, Italy and Germany to the list.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/how-coveney-and-varadkar-took-a-high-risk-political-gamble-to-stop-eu-countries-being-added-to-quarantine-list-40268776.html

Blut2 · 03-04-2021 12:31am

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

AQ only flags these concerns once the big powerhouse of EU (France and Germany) become a problem. Austria would have been removed from the list immediately. Incompetent AG or keeping his employer from having to implement unpopular decisions...

Point 1 - Borders can be closed in under public health reasons.
Point 2 - if they were similar to Ireland they would not be on the list.
Point 3 - lots of ways to resolve that.

The Government never wanted hotel quarantine and public pressure forced there hand so they created a terrible system and continue to stumble from one mess to another.

FG don't support hotel quarantine at all and Dep of Foreign Affairs ran by a FG minister made sure the EU and US wouldn't make the list.

The fact MHQ is an absolute disaster, and that the government never wanted to implement it, are both very obvious. But neither is the point you originally made, and are apparently standing over. Which is that you're claiming its entirely legal and possible to implement it for EU countries. Despite all expert opinion to the contrary.

So again - sources? Evidence? Supporting documentation? You're just repeating your own opinions here and saying oh thats an easy fix. Which when that go against the considered opinions of accredited legal experts you're going to need more than that to prove your point in any way.

Its just slightly odd that you're repeatedly arguing that you know better than the Attorney General of Ireland, and the former President of the Law Society of Ireland, on the legality of MHQ. But have given absolutely zero empirical evidence to date to substantiate your statements.

MrMusician18 · 03-04-2021 2:31am

Blut2 wrote: »

The fact MHQ is an absolute disaster, and that the government never wanted to implement it, are both very obvious. But neither is the point you originally made, and are apparently standing over. Which is that you're claiming its entirely legal and possible to implement it for EU countries. Despite all expert opinion to the contrary.

So again - sources? Evidence? Supporting documentation? You're just repeating your own opinions here and saying oh thats an easy fix. Which when that go against the considered opinions of accredited legal experts you're going to need more than that to prove your point in any way.

Its just slightly odd that you're repeatedly arguing that you know better than the Attorney General of Ireland, and the former President of the Law Society of Ireland, on the legality of MHQ. But have given absolutely zero empirical evidence to date to substantiate your statements.

The evidence that MHQ is legal for EU countries is obvious, as they are currently quarantining all citizens arriving from an EU country.

None of these eminent legal minds has been able to explain what sets Austria apart legally from the rest of the EU nor why the public health provisions in the treaties in what is clearly a public health crisis wouldn't apply.

Jamie2k9 · 03-04-2021 10:52am

Blut2 wrote: »

The fact MHQ is an absolute disaster, and that the government never wanted to implement it, are both very obvious. But neither is the point you originally made, and are apparently standing over. Which is that you're claiming its entirely legal and possible to implement it for EU countries. Despite all expert opinion to the contrary.

So again - sources? Evidence? Supporting documentation? You're just repeating your own opinions here and saying oh thats an easy fix. Which when that go against the considered opinions of accredited legal experts you're going to need more than that to prove your point in any way.

Its just slightly odd that you're repeatedly arguing that you know better than the Attorney General of Ireland, and the former President of the Law Society of Ireland, on the legality of MHQ. But have given absolutely zero empirical evidence to date to substantiate your statements.

Well I do know better than the AG if they consider it illegal for EU countries to be on the list but keep Austria on the list.

The legality argument is far from watertight based on the language used and enough to enable FG ministers overrule. The last AG was rewarded for there services!

If there was full commitment to HQ, the Goverment would solve all these issues. The fact is there is not a full commitment.

The Gov dragged its heels on face coverings, fines and travel. First they used the legal angle then after sustained pressure found a way to make it legal.

NSAman · 03-04-2021 4:37pm

Widdensushi wrote: »

Where was the flight from? It was only reported to be in wuhan early January.

Dublin.... to USA

Before you say it, my own doctor here in USA saw people with symptoms in December 2019.

While it was reported in December in wuhan it was obviously circulating before then.

The person who was coughing was of Asian heritage. I do not blame the man at all, except for flying while sick.

Funnily enough, since that time I have not been sick. First time in decades that I have not had at least had 3 or 4 bouts of flu/virus in a year. Usually after flying.

Inquitus · 03-04-2021 4:53pm

Blut2 wrote: »

3) How can you legally enforce MHQ on Irish citizens who can't afford the quarantine? --
Mr Gilhooly said there are “further concerns” about the high cost of the quarantine system. “Not everyone has €1,800,” he said. “In fact, most people don’t have that so if, for instance, you are an Irish citizen stranded abroad and you wanted to get back and you found you had to do the hotel quarantine for that period and you didn’t have €1,800, what would happen then? “Does that mean you can’t come back? Does that mean you will end up being sued for that amount in the future or what does it mean?

If they can't afford it they shouldn't have travelled, it really is that simple.

Blut2 · 03-04-2021 9:48pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The evidence that MHQ is legal for EU countries is obvious, as they are currently quarantining all citizens arriving from an EU country.

None of these eminent legal minds has been able to explain what sets Austria apart legally from the rest of the EU nor why the public health provisions in the treaties in what is clearly a public health crisis wouldn't apply.

Austria got away with being on the list because theres no longer any direct flight to DUB, and there isn't any decent level of indirect traffic. And by MHQ only being in operation for a week now. It was under the radar, and we've had no arrivals yet from Austria to challenge it. Supposedly its now going to be removed anyway given the legal challenges that have come to light.

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Well I do know better than the AG if they consider it illegal for EU countries to be on the list but keep Austria on the list.

The legality argument is far from watertight based on the language used and enough to enable FG ministers overrule. The last AG was rewarded for there services!

If there was full commitment to HQ, the Goverment would solve all these issues. The fact is there is not a full commitment.

The Gov dragged its heels on face coverings, fines and travel. First they used the legal angle then after sustained pressure found a way to make it legal.

"Well I do know better than the Attorney General" okay well then :rolleyes: I suggest you volunteer your excellent legal mind to the government in that case.

Inquitus wrote: »

If they can't afford it they shouldn't have travelled, it really is that simple.

"shouldn't have traveled" doesn't mean the state can illegally reject entry to Ireland for an Irish citizen, though. Witness the two women flying back from the UAE this weekend who Simon Coveney had to issue a special exemption to board their flight for when they decided they didn't want to pay for their MHQ. There was no question of them being kept out, the government folded very quickly when presented with the problem.

Jamie2k9 · 03-04-2021 9:55pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Austria got away with being on the list because theres no longer any direct flight to DUB, and there isn't any decent level of indirect traffic. And by MHQ only being in operation for a week now. We've had no arrivals yet from Austria to challenge it. Supposedly its now going to be removed anyway.

"Well I do know better than the Attorney General" okay well then :rolleyes: I suggest you volunteer your excellent legal mind to the government in that case.

"shouldn't have traveled" doesn't mean the state can illegally reject entry to Ireland for an Irish citizen, though. Witness the two women flying back from the UAE this weekend who Simon Coveney had to issue a special exemption to board their flight for when they decided they didn't want to pay for their MHQ. There was no question of them being kept out, the government folded instantly.

So its only illegal when there is direct flights and high traffic flows?

No AG would back that claim up!

If its removed its only because Gov have been exposed and clearly didn't see other EU members been put forward.

MrMusician18 · 04-04-2021 5:57pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Austria got away with being on the list because theres no longer any direct flight to DUB, and there isn't any decent level of indirect traffic. And by MHQ only being in operation for a week now. It was under the radar, and we've had no arrivals yet from Austria to challenge it. Supposedly its now going to be removed anyway given the legal challenges that have come to light.

That idea doesn't stand up to scrutiny on two fronts. The idea that there being no direct flights has an impact on whether or not something is illegal is laughable. If it's illegal, what was the AG doing when the first list was introduced? Secondly, the treaties can be suspended for public health crises - given that C19 is the greatest public health crisis the globe had faced since the Spanish flu, I doubt it could possibly be ruled disproportionate.

The government was effectively bounced into implementing MHQ by the oppositio, media and public health voices within govt, since it was resisted for so long. It's quite clear that most departments outside of health oppose it. The issues around it are entirely political, economic and logistical. As I said, there is plenty of legal cover available, should the government choose to use it.

In any case, the time to do it was last year, so it's effectively a waste of time now so really should be dropped. It's like one man standing on a beach trying to hold back the tide. If MHQ isn't comprehensive, the best it can do is marginally slow down spread.

cson · 04-04-2021 8:13pm

I mean the fact that the US isn't on the list exposes it for the joke that it is, its pure theater.

Chris_5339762 · 05-04-2021 1:14pm

The fact that Israel IS on the list to me, is a bigger farce. The most vaccinated country in the world is on the list. Cyprus is letting Israelis in without checks in the same week that we put them on the quarantine list.

I'm 50/50 about having the US on the list. They are very quickly vaccinating and will be in a good position quite soon.

(That said, I think the list is stupid and MHQ shouldn't exist in the form it is at the moment)

NSAman · 05-04-2021 1:33pm

cson wrote: »

I mean the fact that the US isn't on the list exposes it for the joke that it is, its pure theater.

Can you organise a vaccination for yourself currently?

Are there mass vaccinations going on in Ireland? Can you walk to your pharmacy having ordered a vaccination?

That’s happening in the States!

Most people want the vaccination to allow them to travel!

Close to 4 million vaccinations a day here....Ireland has a record 30k?

I get mine this week. Do I need to quarantine in a mandatory facility when I want to see family? With a vaccine? Should I have to? (I will do so in my own home in Ireland)

Irish Steve · 05-04-2021 7:18pm

I have just deleted a number of posts that breach the Boards.ie requirements not to discuss cases that are sub judice.

Please don't post on the subject of the Dubai 2, any such posts going forward will be deleted, and may incur sanctions.

cson · 05-04-2021 10:37pm

NSAman wrote: »

Can you organise a vaccination for yourself currently?

Are there mass vaccinations going on in Ireland? Can you walk to your pharmacy having ordered a vaccination?

That’s happening in the States!

Most people want the vaccination to allow them to travel!

Close to 4 million vaccinations a day here....Ireland has a record 30k?

I get mine this week. Do I need to quarantine in a mandatory facility when I want to see family? With a vaccine? Should I have to? (I will do so in my own home in Ireland)

I actually can & in the process of doing so - I'm US based!

My point being that the list is a nonsense and should be viewed in that light.

Now, if Ireland were to perhaps take a lead in the post vaccination world and welcome tourists with vaccine proof, it might be a good use of time in terms of helping the tourist industry (and EI/FR by extension) recover more quickly. There's massive demand to travel in the States and I think Ireland could capture some of that if it could construct some sort of vaccine record acceptance/validation. Otherwise hello to another summer of suffering for sufferings sake. Anyone arguing for the approach of the last 6 months, I'd say one word; Denmark.

NSAman · 05-04-2021 11:38pm

cson wrote: »

I actually can & in the process of doing so - I'm US based!

My point being that the list is a nonsense and should be viewed in that light.

Now, if Ireland were to perhaps take a lead in the post vaccination world and welcome tourists with vaccine proof, it might be a good use of time in terms of helping the tourist industry (and EI/FR by extension) recover more quickly. There's massive demand to travel in the States and I think Ireland could capture some of that if it could construct some sort of vaccine record acceptance/validation. Otherwise hello to another summer of suffering for sufferings sake. Anyone arguing for the approach of the last 6 months, I'd say one word; Denmark.

Agreed, but will the powers that be in Ireland use common sense ? Errrr... nope! That would require though and a plan...both of which seem to be lacking in Irish leaders of health and politicians

AnRothar · 06-04-2021 8:20am

NSAman wrote: »

Agreed, but will the powers that be in Ireland use common sense ? Errrr... nope! That would require though and a plan...both of which seem to be lacking in Irish leaders of health and politicians

There has always been a plan.
We may not like it but it always has been there.

First rule of politics is so nothing that will affect your reelection.
Hence PUP and similar schemes where the employer is "encouraged" not to make redundancies .

Second rule is have someone between you and actual blame.
Rule 2 is NEPHET(? Spelling).
NEPHET are health professionals. All actions they take are based on ideas/opinions/experience/suggestions from the health field.
Not economics, not aviation not retail or any of the fields been adversely affected by their planning.

They are acting in what they believe is the best interests of their "clients"(patients to lesser mortals).

Reopening the country would require nerves of steel and leadership willing to accept that to make an omelette you must break some eggs. Never going to happen in any first world democracy. Especially one in NW Europe.
Just visualize the headlines full of images of temporary wards and doctors telling that they may have to start making decisions on who gets treated first. With the implication of what will happen to the next patient on.

The actual financial cost currently has been disproportionately felt by a narrow group.
This is politically acceptable.
From next year when the national debt starts to rise the true cost of this strategy will start to be seen.

But our political masters will have a very plausible defence.
So the plan worked.

Nijmegen · 06-04-2021 12:24pm

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

The fact that Israel IS on the list to me, is a bigger farce. The most vaccinated country in the world is on the list. Cyprus is letting Israelis in without checks in the same week that we put them on the quarantine list.

I'm 50/50 about having the US on the list. They are very quickly vaccinating and will be in a good position quite soon.

(That said, I think the list is stupid and MHQ shouldn't exist in the form it is at the moment)

Israel is just coming down off a very large spike in cases. I think yesterday they had 330 cases, but they had a spike that held them around 3.5-4k cases the start of March that has been slowly declining - they had 1,800 on paddies day for example. Proving that vaccine doesn't just equal lower cases - it probably means lower deaths, but while a covid positive Israeli coming to Ireland is not at all likely to kill his vaccinated 65 year old mother when she gives him a lift to the airport, when he gets here he can spread it to an unvaccinated 65 year old who is at high risk.

cson wrote: »

I actually can & in the process of doing so - I'm US based!

My point being that the list is a nonsense and should be viewed in that light.

Now, if Ireland were to perhaps take a lead in the post vaccination world and welcome tourists with vaccine proof, it might be a good use of time in terms of helping the tourist industry (and EI/FR by extension) recover more quickly. There's massive demand to travel in the States and I think Ireland could capture some of that if it could construct some sort of vaccine record acceptance/validation. Otherwise hello to another summer of suffering for sufferings sake. Anyone arguing for the approach of the last 6 months, I'd say one word; Denmark.

Agreed 100% vaccine passports should be a thing, but the chances of governments agreeing a solid way to do this cross border and not end up in internal wrangles about what people are and aren't allowed to do based on vaccine, in a country that's struggling to hit the numbers? Very low, unfortunately.

AnRothar wrote: »

Reopening the country would require nerves of steel and leadership willing to accept that to make an omelette you must break some eggs. Never going to happen in any first world democracy. Especially one in NW Europe.
Just visualize the headlines full of images of temporary wards and doctors telling that they may have to start making decisions on who gets treated first. With the implication of what will happen to the next patient on.

The actual financial cost currently has been disproportionately felt by a narrow group.
This is politically acceptable.
From next year when the national debt starts to rise the true cost of this strategy will start to be seen.

But our political masters will have a very plausible defence.
So the plan worked.

"To make an omelets you must break some eggs." More people died of Covid in 2021 so far after the "meaningful Christmas" than died in all of 2020 in Ireland - on December 31 we had recorded 2,237 deaths and today it is 4,718 - growth of 2,481 deaths.

We can and should argue about the impacts of various restrictions and approaches, but 2,481 individuals in near enough 90 days is not an omelet.

Fact is, the only time the government ran headlong at opening up as some suggest we need to do we ended up paying a terrible price. Yes, the circumstance should change as we vaccinate older and vulnerable cohorts, but lets not pretend some folks aren't just singing the same tune now for a year or so with different keys as things change a bit.

And the likes of the wage subsidies you speak of will be the best chance of things getting back as quickly as possible and practicable after the pandemic, for aviation included.

MrMusician18 · 09-04-2021 11:39pm

In a surprise to no one with a brain that could notice the inconsistencies, looks like what the AG had been advising was a load of nonsense

Jamie2k9 · 10-04-2021 12:06am

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In a surprise to no one with a brain that could notice the inconsistencies, looks like what the AG had been advising was a load of nonsense

Coveney must be livid. I will say I am slightly surprised they managed to over rule the decision. Public pressure won out in the end and backbench TDs are getting it from voters.

Good to see Israel removed.

Sikpupi · 10-04-2021 12:14am

now USA on the list.... we were to have some USA businessmen fly over to look at investing in a project in coming week. is there ANY exemptions on having to to into the Quarantine Hotel based on PCR tests taken in USA??

bombs away · 10-04-2021 12:18am

Does anyone know who is on the expert travel advisory group? Are any of them actually involved in the travel or aviation industry?

NSAman · 10-04-2021 12:39am

bombs away wrote: »

Does anyone know who is on the expert travel advisory group? Are any of them actually involved in the travel or aviation industry?

I have been trying to find this information out also. Seems to be very little information on this expert travel advisory group.

SNNUS · 10-04-2021 12:46am

That's curtains for the aviation industry here.

smurfjed · 10-04-2021 6:26am

They should have done this last year or not at all.

The Expert Advisory Group on Travel (EAGT) was established on 1 March 2021 to develop a method of risk assessing States and consider all concerns COVID-19 poses for travel.

The Group meets every two weeks to recommend amendments to the list of Designated States, taking into account:

countries with outbreak involving known variants of concern
countries with a very high 14-day incidence (≥500/100,000)
countries with a high 14-day incidence (greater than 2.5 times Ireland’s 14-dau incidence but <500/100,000)
These recommendations are considered by the Chief Medical Officer who in turn makes a recommendation to the Minister for Health.

The EAGT has emphasised the ongoing risk presented by variants of concern, variants of interest and the challenge posed by the limited availability of data relating to the locations and spread of VOCs.

The group will give ongoing consideration to any other measures they deem required to reduce the risk of imported cases of COVID-19.

TeaPot918 · 10-04-2021 9:57am

Disgusted. It's almost like they are trying to correlate shutting down aviation to what will be a vastly improved situation in a few weeks time.

bombs away · 10-04-2021 10:05am

smurfjed wrote: »

They should have done this last year or not at all.

It doesn't seem like anyone on that group has any experience in the travel industry whatsoever and are purely from a medical background. If so what exactly is expert about the 'expert travel advisory group' They didn't even seem to realize that Israel has the highest vaccination rate in the world at the moment.

The problem I see with a lot of decisions being made at the moment is that they are purely from a restricted point of view, don't overload the health system being their primary goal. This will result in lost jobs (over 150,000 in the aviation industry alone plus ancillary jobs). And basically wreck the economy. The long term view here is that we will be paying for this for an awful lot longer than most countries in the EU who have taken a much more pragmatic view and still have similar case numbers to us.

This overly cautious approach will result in higher taxes and lost jobs for years to come. No one seems concerned by this??

basill · 10-04-2021 11:58am

This overloading of the health system is their go to argument. In over a year at this I haven't seen nor heard anything tangible from the government providing increased long term resilience in the health system. The money wasted on their alternative measures to protect their precious health system would have been better invested in bricks and mortar, consultants, front line medical staff and losing KPMG and the hundreds of back office staff putting together press conferences and preparing spreadsheets and pretty excel charts.

Nor have we ever been close to the health system being overcome from what I have seen. They signed up private hospitals as a backup which were under utilised and as far as I am aware are no longer being used for primary medical care.

Go across the Irish sea and the UK had private medical facilities, The Dome etc all on standby for a "wave". The armed forces were ready to go with Medics and transport aircraft to shift people quickly across the UK to available medical facilities.

In little old Ireland we can't even setup contact tracing in any meaningful form.

Everything that is happening (or not) in this country is completely down to an inept government that lacks leadership. It's decision by committee, PR and parish pump politics.

IngazZagni · 10-04-2021 12:12pm

I dont think this will have any real affect on the industry here assuming the sunset clause of mid June remains in place. Flights up to then with pax would be loss making anyway with travel across the world still mostly discouraged. By the end of June I'd be hopeful we will reach the 80% of adults being vaccinated and at that point I hope we welcome back tourists but we need to start planning for that now. This would be so much more palatable if we had any plan at all.

Inquitus · 10-04-2021 12:54pm

J&J Vaccines are not meeting delivery targets in the US, there seems to be a widespread issue with Vaccine delivery, I'll believe our proposed vaccination timetable when we get them in people's arms. We are expecting 55m doses of J&J to the EU in Q2. AZ are only delivering 70m of the 180m they committed by end of Q2.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/04/09/johnson-johnson-vaccine-delays/

smurfjed · 10-04-2021 1:10pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

This would be so much more palatable if we had any plan at all.

I would be happy if they even mandated double vaccinations for all tourists from some these countries. They appear to have forgotten that the goal was not to overload the health service, rather than totally destroy the economy.

Inquitus · 10-04-2021 3:15pm

Another 16 countries on the mandatory hotel quarantine list as of the end of next week, announced today, some interesting ones:

Bangladesh, Belgium, France, Italy, Kenya, Luxembourg, Pakistan, Turkey, the USA, Canada, Armenia, Bermuda, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Curaçao, Maldives, Ukraine

Tenzor07 · 10-04-2021 5:35pm

Yea great, makes sense adding the USA to the list :rolleyes: they're well ahead with the vaccinations, any business travellers from the U.S would have their 2nd jabs done and all before travelling plus negative PCR's... such a shambles to bring in the mandatory quarantine..

MrMusician18 · 10-04-2021 5:41pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Yea great, makes sense adding the USA to the list :rolleyes: they're well ahead with the vaccinations, any business travellers from the U.S would have their 2nd jabs done and all before travelling plus negative PCR's... such a shambles to bring in the mandatory quarantine..

The purpose of seemingly to prevent the importation of vaccine resistant variants, which if they arrived and took hold, it would set the whole programme back to the start. I have genuine reservations about the policy though as 1) there's a huge Northern Ireland shaped hole in it and 2) it will be extremely difficult to end as the variant threat is not likely to end any time soon.

Tenzor07 · 10-04-2021 6:33pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The purpose of seemingly to prevent the importation of vaccine resistant variants, which if they arrived and took hold, it would set the whole programme back to the start. I have genuine reservations about the policy though as 1) there's a huge Northern Ireland shaped hole in it and 2) it will be extremely difficult to end as the variant threat is not likely to end any time soon.

It's all Populist nonsense when you can just cross the border, won't stop any variants, 100's of truck drivers a day coming off the ferries, not the fault of the Aviation sector that the Irish Government are still changing the vaccination program 5 months down the line... I can't even log in to a Govt. website and register for a vaccination...
Are they following Zero Covid or just pandering to those who are... all in all a mess..

cson · 10-04-2021 7:32pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

It's all Populist nonsense when you can just cross the border, won't stop any variants, 100's of truck drivers a day coming off the ferries, not the fault of the Aviation sector that the Irish Government are still changing the vaccination program 5 months down the line... I can't even log in to a Govt. website and register for a vaccination...
Are they following Zero Covid or just pandering to those who are... all in all a mess..

Bingo.

I thought the first lockdown this time last year was to allow the public health system to spin up capacity and resources to cope with the demand?

What's happened in the 12 months since?

Closing the door after the horse has bolted.

0lddog · 10-04-2021 9:39pm

Is it true that AZ is not FDA approved ?
if so what chance of it being accepted for entry stateside ?

goingnowhere · 10-04-2021 9:48pm

Correct

The US focused on US domestic products, pfizer, moderna, J&J

AZ was late to the party and stocks in the US have been 'loaned' to Mexico and Canada, probably to avoid expiry date issues.

Tenger · 10-04-2021 10:00pm

I can't understand how MHQ was rolled out with zero account for vaccinations, seeing as the UK and the US were vaccinating from mid December. Issues around fully vaccinated arrivals was obviously going to be a early hiccup.

I've always been an advocate for MHQ but this very hard version 8-10 months too late seems like a PR stunt.
I posted it before but Hong Kong have 10 day MHQ, testing on arrival and testing on day 9.
Iceland have 6 days, test on day 1 and day 5.they also allow home quarantine for residents.

Home quarantine would work if we had an actual functioning track&trace system. Such an option could work for vaccinated arrivals.
After all our previous "14 days self isolation" was pretty insipid.

An article in the Times last week said that "Community spread" is just a code name for "we havent a frigging clue how it is spreading"

davebuck · 10-04-2021 10:10pm

Tenger wrote: »

I can't understand how MHQ was rolled out with zero account for vaccinations, seeing as the UK and the US were vaccinating from mid December.

I've always been an advocate for MHQ but this very hard version 8-10 months too late seems like a PR stunt.
I posted it before but Hong Kong have 10 day MHQ, testing on arrival and testing on day 9.
Iceland have 6 days, test on day 1 and day 5.they also allow home quarantine for residents.

Home quarantine would work if we had an actual functioning track&trace system.

An article in the Times last week said that "Community spread" is just a code name for "we havent a frigging clue how it is spreading"

The Muppets in Government and NPHET are only looking after themselves what the government is doing to the aviation and tourist industries is unbelievable at this stage.... talk about trying to close the barn door and the horse is in another country.
Yes totally agree they don't have a clue what they are doing its all reactive and a lot to do with the pre Covid health system which was under stress.

The media like RTE etc. are covering up be reporting on non important issues re Covid and lettiing the government off the hook.... I hope RTE show the same level of interest in the health system after Covid!

MrMusician18 · 10-04-2021 10:34pm

cson wrote: »

Bingo.

I thought the first lockdown this time last year was to allow the public health system to spin up capacity and resources to cope with the demand?

What's happened in the 12 months since?

Closing the door after the horse has bolted.

That was never the case tbf. Hospital capacity is more or less fixed, it takes years to add capacity. To put it in aviation terms, you wouldn't expect an airline to suddenly open 30 new routes overnight - they'd need time to get aircraft, pilots and cabin crew. In the case of health, it takes time to build hospitals and hire staff, staff that are in huge demand globally.

The point of the lockdowns it to avoid the health service reaching capacity. Always was.

The reason MHQ remains for the vaccinated is that currently there is no conclusive evidence that the vaccines offer sterilising immunity.

Jack1985 · 10-04-2021 11:56pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The reason MHQ remains for the vaccinated is that currently there is no conclusive evidence that the vaccines offer sterilising immunity.

The CDC would somewhat disagree with that statement (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/29/world/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccines-infection.html)

8 other studies would also refute the broadness of your statement, one of which is in a country with dominant B.1.1.7 spread and high inoculation (Israel), in addition to the US where up to 4 VOC's were circulating in that particular study. The below studies are publicly available that show vaccines reduce asymptomatic infection (transmission);

Hall SSRN ~ 22/02/21
Dagan NEJM ~ 24/02/21
Weekes Authorea ~ 24/02/21
Pawlowski medRxiv ~ 27/02/21
Amit, Lancet ~ 06/03/21
Tande Clin Inf Dis ~ 10/03/21
Pfizer ~ 11/03/21
Thompson A. CDC MMWR ~ 30/03/21 (Referred to by NYTimes)

In all of these studies, the reduction of asymptomatic or infections including asymptomatic peaked at up to 94% with a minimum reduction of 75%. VOC's did indeed create somewhat of a pause effect in relation to how we approach resumptions of human life when impressions were given that vaccines would be compromised by VOCs. The majority of vaccines are adapting and still driving % reductions in asymptomatic/infection. More studies will show this as they are released in real-time.

Science has achieved an amazing standard where most vaccines efficacies are peaking in the high 90%, they reduce somewhat due to VOCs (501.V2/P.1) but nowhere near a level that will derail unlocking society. Nearly all remain 100% efficacious in preventing death.

VOC's will continue to develop for many years (particularly in 3rd world countries with low levels of inoculation), vaccines will adapt and life will continue. There seems to be a continued fixation on cases (they will explode when life resumes and CV19 is still circulating in young teens/children but will matter little), the main goal of stopping people dying is being achieved.

Only in Ireland do we witness blatant vaccine disinformation from some academics that have been elevated by media for no clear rationale such as ISAG who use VOC's as a means to spread continued misinformation - The narrative would be irresponsible if platformed in the United Kingdom or United States and it generally is not, we continue to do it here and its unnerving.

I do believe reputationally, regardless of how demand returns this Summer Ireland has compromised itself somewhat. Railroading in a system with no sunset clause or recognition of vaccination will cause immediate short-term and medium-term harm, how Ireland chooses to get itself out of this own goal is up to Governance, it’s something lacking for a long time and something I have very little faith in.

11-04-2021 12:30am

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The reason MHQ remains for the vaccinated is that currently there is no conclusive evidence that the vaccines offer sterilising immunity.

You speak like you know what you are talking about but other qualified Organisations don't share your view. see here:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html

The research which has been done so far shows that the viral load is at the very least significantly reduced so the risks of transmission are dramatically reduced.
Further research would be required to prove sterilising immunity which might never be "conclusively" proved so as a criteria for justifying open-ended imposition of MHQ it is suspect. Little in life is a certainty.

You then go on to conflate quarantine with mandatory hotel quarantine as though MHQ is the correct course of action for those who have been vaccinated (or for that matter tested negative on a PCR or Antigen test).
Conflation of MHQ and Quarantine at home for those who are vaccinated is disingenuous.
Mandatory Hotel Quarantine is an intolerable restriction of civil liberties.

For example in Baden-Württemberg those returning from high risk areas are allowed quarantine for 10 days at home.
https://sozialministerium.baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/gesundheit-pflege/gesundheitsschutz/infektionsschutz-hygiene/informationen-zu-coronavirus/verordnungen/coronavo-einreise-quarantaene-und-testung/answers-to-frequently-asked-questions-about-the-corona-ordinance-entry-quarantine-eq/

The Germans would have competency to assess risk and chose not to introduce MHQ. Unelected individuals in Ireland coerce the Minister to do otherwise.

Hopefully, that Israeli lady who awaits a determination in the High Court on Monday on the topic of whether MHQ is detention will be successful in her complaint and will overturn MHQ legislation in part or in whole.

MHQ is not normal best practice.
MHQ is not a normal public health safety measure being followed in other European States and where it has been mooted in other Countries the duration was much shorter e.g. 3 days in Canada. We'll ignore the non-democratic countries.
MHQ is an intolerable infringement of civil liberties and the State has over-reached.

edit: I didn't see Jack1985's response when I started to compose my response. He quotes the same sentence from MrMusician18 and one of the same sources as I do so we were thinking along the same lines.

MrMusician18 · 11-04-2021 2:09am

Jack1985 wrote: »

The CDC would somewhat disagree with that statement (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/29/world/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccines-infection.html)

...

The article doesn't disagree with what I said. I said that the vaccines have not conclusively been proven to offer sterilising immunity, and that is reflected in the article which only states that it is likely. It remains unproven. The precautionary principle would therefore mean you assume that it doesn't until proved otherwise.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19 my original remarks were based upon this article.

In any case this is a discussion for the main forum not here. I have started that MHQ although well meaning from a public health perspective, with almost certainly fail and fail quickly on its goal of preventing variants that the vaccine is less effective against from entering the country. Those that want to engage in the kind of discretionary travel that they shouldn't be doing anyway now will just fly in and out of Belfast instead. People were asked to restrict their movements, quarantine at home etc previously and they didn't, so I don't expect that to change - adherence is likely to get worse if anything.

MHQ hasn't been introduced in continental Europe for a number of reasons: differing legal systems and open borders are two things that would make it impossible to manage. Quarantine is really only suitable for island nations, and a mandatory hotel aspect is because people do not effectively quarantine when left to themselves.

I doubt the HC will overturn the legislation underpinning MHQ, as the court would likely not see itself to have sufficient expertise to contradict public health officials acting for the common good - especially on measures that are temporary. That said though the government does seem split on it so I wouldn't be surprised to see it tweaked to make it less onerous.

Jack1985 · 11-04-2021 3:45am

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The article doesn't disagree with what I said. I said that the vaccines have not conclusively been proven to offer sterilising immunity, and that is reflected in the article which only states that it is likely. It remains unproven. The precautionary principle would therefore mean you assume that it doesn't until proved otherwise.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19 my original remarks were based upon this article.

In any case this is a discussion for the main forum not here.

Firstly, all of this impact’s aviation it’s the worst impacted industry as a result of Coronavirus as we all know. MHQ and the basis for its activation have a direct correlation to what is being discussed.

You've quoted an article from early Feb 21; I've listed 8 studies after that very article and a CDC update from late Mar 21 that is showing vaccines are massively reducing transmission with fantastic stats.

Nearly all vaccines are near 100% effective against stopping deaths. This was the ultimate goal for vaccination, chasing cases will have the world in a spiral for many years if that's the direction to be pursued. We will get there eventually with reducing the risk that VOCs present, just this week in more good news against the P.1 variant the new vaccine CoronaVac has shown the following in a study before mass deployment;

50.4% reduction in Covid-19 cases
83.7% reduction in moderate cases
100% reduction in severe cases (or death)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.07.21255081v1

It's infuriating personally watching how MHQ is being handled. I would agree with the following, limit if you can where vaccines are proven to be compromised in efficacy leading to an increase in severe outcomes from known areas of VOC. But to subject to MHQ individuals who are less of a risk to the local population frankly flies in the face of science itself, Israel removed for good reason this week an utter embarrassment of a decision.

In Australia, the following was announced yesterday;

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has flagged potential major changes to international travel as Australia's vaccine rollout continues.
The Federal Government has requested the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) advise what thresholds need to be met in order for vaccinated Australians to travel overseas and the quarantine arrangements that would be required.

Mr Morrison said the government was seeking advice as to whether quarantine should remain in hotels, and if a home model or even no quarantine requirements were at all feasible to be implemented in the future for vaccinated travellers

As nations plan exit-strategies, we remain without any plan at all and are enacting regimes without checks and balances – It’s Governance overreach. I truly hope the DGP from the EU kicks in soon, the Government are incapable of properly handling this.

basill · 11-04-2021 12:37pm

I wish the airlines would get together and form a pact to give away free tickets for a day. Better still fill the aircraft with their own ground based staff on the promise that they will receive full pay and cost reimbursement if they are required to quarantine. Thats all that would be required to completely overrun this farcical system. Couple of extra flights from CDG and we are out of hotel rooms.

TeaPot918 · 11-04-2021 1:21pm

I think we're at the point a mass socialy-distant protest in uniform of all the staff is needed. Everyone needs to see the real people affected by this.

bk · 11-04-2021 1:44pm

basill wrote: »

I wish the airlines would get together and form a pact to give away free tickets for a day. Better still fill the aircraft with their own ground based staff on the promise that they will receive full pay and cost reimbursement if they are required to quarantine. Thats all that would be required to completely overrun this farcical system. Couple of extra flights from CDG and we are out of hotel rooms.

If they tried that, the government would simply order the closure of the airports.

You do know we are talking about the government here. They have full control of our airspace and licensing of airlines.

BTW The UK has also put in place similar quarantine hotels, for people travelling from 33 countries.

It is actually more strict, it is actually a full travel ban for people travelling from those 33 countries, with the quarantine hotel only for returning UK and Irish residents.

So it certainly isn't just us who are implementing these steps.

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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