Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Su Campu · 02-06-2010 9:48pm

Yes, thanks a lot for all your forecasts. I'm only relatively new to this forum, but I find it admirable that you take the time each and every day to give such input to a forum on a tiny island 8 timezones away from you. And not only the forecasts, but now you've also undertaken a probably even bigger task in your alternative theory thread, which I'm really looking forward to!

pauldry · 02-06-2010 11:35pm

What a great day for the thread to be born huh?

It certainly looks like what you say for this weekend MT

M.T. Cranium · 03-06-2010 4:29am

The main thing is, I'm enjoying the "work" I do here and most days it doesn't really feel like work. Now that I am more or less retired from bill-paying work, I spend a lot of time each day following weather events all around the world, as part of my research. From about 1980 to 2005, I spent what time I could mainly on North American weather. That was a period of time when I was working at non-weather-related jobs so I didn't have as much time and certainly not enough time to take this luxury of following weather events in many different parts of the globe. So having reached a point where I felt like it was now more necessary to expand the research than continue fine-tuning the North American part of it, I just happened to wander into the BBC weather forum in early 2005, met some people who were active at Net-weather and also helped start up a smaller forum (that now has UK and Irish members), met a few Irish weather enthusiasts including Darkman and Kindred Spirit who are members here, and they recommended boards.ie as another good place to obtain in-depth information.

I would say from about 2005 to 2007 it was mostly a case of getting more familiar with the weather patterns you have around your "tiny island" (I seem to remember it was big enough) and then getting more familiar with them, trying my hand at forecasting. I do have some more conventional background as well as my research ideas, and the way things actually work in practice, the computer models certainly pick up on and develop almost all the energy cycles that I find in my research so as a practical question I don't "use the theory" in my forecasts all that much, since the forecasting models are quite reliable nowadays for at least the first 3-4 days (with the usual uncertainties), but I should mention that on occasion I find an application of this research that finds its way into a forecast, and on occasion when I express confidence or doubt in some outcome about 7-10 days out, that may be based in part on the theoretical research too.

Anyway, it's my good fortune really to have stumbled across this weather forum and I find it a very friendly place where you get a lot more than just weather, so to call most of this "work" is really an overstatement. I may need a bit of help later this summer once the holiday plans are settled, or maybe we'll just take a break and if something big comes up the "crew" will probably discuss it anyway.

M.T. Cranium · 03-06-2010 6:56am

Thursday, 3 June, 2010
________________________

TODAY, some high cloud may dim the morning sunshine but this cloud should drift further east to allow some inland counties to feel quite warm, even hot perhaps, as highs reach 22-24 C. Highs around the east and south coast are likely to be closer to 19-20 C, but winds in general will be light SSE 5-10 mph.

TONIGHT, lower and thicker cloud will begin to drift into the west coast but light rain with this may remain near or even offshore; further east, expect some fog to develop in a mild, humid southerly flow with lows generally near 10 or 11 C.

FRIDAY, hazy sunshine may redevelop in the east but the thicker western cloud will slowly advance and may bring intervals of light rain further east also. Highs will range from near 17 C west, to near 21 C east, and 18-19 C in the south where some fog may drift inland a few miles before lifting to low cloud cover.

SATURDAY will continue rather warm with isolated showers, and highs of about 20 C on average.

SUNDAY will become more overcast with fairly well scattered showers developing especially in the southwest, with highs near 18 C.

MONDAY continues to look rather unsettled and a bit cooler again with highs of about 15 C and rainfalls of at least 5-15 mms on average. This disturbance will continue to drop rain on Tuesday, then the rest of the week looks slightly better as cloud begins to break to more of a partly cloudy pattern.

On Wednesday here (2nd of June) we had a bit of rain in the morning, some slow clearing later in the day, and it became quite windy in the evening as a weak front has just come inland from the Pacific. The high was about 18 C.

muckety · 03-06-2010 7:11am

I had palpitations when I couldn't see this morning's weather forecast... until I found it stickied!! Phew and thanks for the great work mtcranium!

Welsh Wizard · 03-06-2010 7:21am

muckety wrote: »

I had palpitations when I couldn't see this morning's weather forecast... until I found it stickied!! Phew and thanks for the great work mtcranium!

Same here.. Thanks again M.T..... Who needs Met Eireann..

thetangler · 03-06-2010 8:08am

muckety wrote: »

I had palpitations when I couldn't see this morning's weather forecast... until I found it stickied!! Phew and thanks for the great work mtcranium!

Same as that.

Thanks M.T

rhonin · 03-06-2010 9:19am

muckety wrote: »

I had palpitations when I couldn't see this morning's weather forecast... until I found it stickied!! Phew and thanks for the great work mtcranium!

You weren't the only one :pac:

Great work over the year Mr.T

MayoForSam · 03-06-2010 1:25pm

Well done on becoming 'stickified' MT, I find your forecasts to be spot on most days.

pauldry · 03-06-2010 1:53pm

Yeah MT,

Thanks for the forecasts. They really stand up well to what actually happens. Think a half wet/half dry Bank holiday is in the offing in the Wesht. At least the temps should hold up well although a minimum of 4.6c was observed in Claremorris last night!

loup · 03-06-2010 2:43pm

muckety wrote: »

I had palpitations when I couldn't see this morning's weather forecast... until I found it stickied!! Phew and thanks for the great work mtcranium!

Me three!! MT thanks for your sterling work over the past year, looking forward to more of it over the next year!:D

In_tuition · 03-06-2010 3:51pm

Really appreciate your insight on a daily basis.

Thank you very much and keep up the fantastic work.

lubie76 · 03-06-2010 4:24pm

Thanks MT. Great to have a (better) alternative to Met Eireann!

YESROH · 03-06-2010 5:18pm

Another new person here and have been reading your weather forecast since the big freeze and find it the best.

eoinor · 03-06-2010 7:11pm

Always enjoy the forecast M.T.!! Thanks!

wild handlin · 03-06-2010 9:24pm

Yeah, I'd also like to add my thanks to M.T. Cranium for the superb daily forcasts posted here.

Many thanks for taking the time to post em here, great reading on what the next few days are likely to bring.

Keep up the great work

gonker · 03-06-2010 10:18pm

Thank you MT (I love your name btw). Recommend you to loads of people. My favourite post on boards. Keep up the good work, and thank you.

MollyZ · 03-06-2010 10:35pm

Just want to add my thanks for the great forecasts over the past year MT. This is the first place I look when I want to see what the weather has in store and your work is greatly appreciated. All the very best to you.

M.T. Cranium · 04-06-2010 7:01am

Friday, 4 June, 2010
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TODAY, some cloud and light rain will spread across western counties during the morning but may not reach the east coast before breaking apart, allowing some mid-day and afternoon hazy sunshine to warm temperatures up to around 19-21 C.

TONIGHT will be misty and locally foggy with just a slight chance of a shower, and lows of about 6-8 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers developing, rather light winds so that once these showers develop, they may tend to stay confined to one or two locations (more likely to be in the inland south and southeast perhaps). Highs will be around 18-20 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals and somewhat more widespread showers developing, although some places could remain dry. Winds will become moderate SE to E 10-20 mph, and the temperature range will be from lows of 5-7 C to highs of 16-18 C.

MONDAY still looks rather unsettled although some indications now that the rain will be more likely to be persistent in the south than other parts of Ireland. At best, it will be mostly cloudy, and some of the rain may fall in heavy and locally thundery showers. Highs will be about 15-17 C after a morning low of 8-10 C. Winds will be moderate SE backing to NE 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY will remain about the same, rather unsettled with the main part of the rainfall shifting slowly eastward as winds back further NE to N 10-20 mph. Highs will be about 15-17 C.

Later next week, it should gradually clear again and remain rather cool compared to this week.

Here, we enjoyed our first long sunny interval in many days from mid-afternoon to sunset, after a cloudy morning. The high was about 19 C.

With the weekend weather apparently dominated by rather slow-moving weak features, you may want to check the other threads about this weekend's weather as it develops to get the latest weather forum thinking.

redalicat · 04-06-2010 9:12am

Congrats, MT! I look forward to your forecasts each day, forwarding them to friends who want a reliable forecast. Your hard work and diligence is much appreciated. Keep up the good work!
--From a fellow North American

SeaFields · 04-06-2010 11:16am

Fair play to you MT, takes a lot of commitment to do what you do.

Look forward to another year again. Well done

05-06-2010 2:25am

Great to see this getting the sticky, big thanks for the forecasts and hard work MT

M.T. Cranium · 05-06-2010 7:00am

Saturday, 5 June, 2010
______________________

TODAY most places should remain dry and there will be some sunny intervals although more cloud around than the past few days. However, one or two areas of shower activity may develop in a slow-moving north-south trough feature that could produce locally persistent rainfalls in one or two places, these most likely to be in south central counties towards the southeast later, and possibly another area in the northwest. Away from these areas of rain the highs today should reach 20 C again.

TONIGHT a few more showers will develop but these will continue to be somewhat isolated, with other places remaining dry. Lows will be about 8 C.

SUNDAY will probably see more cloud but still some bright intervals and the extent of showers may remain limited until late in the day when rain begins to develop more widely in western counties. Highs will be about 17-18 C.

MONDAY will bring more frequent showers or longer intervals of rain (these more likely in the south) with moderate southeast winds backing to easterly at about 10-20 mph. The temperature range will be narrow, from lows around 8-10 C to highs around 14-16 C.

TUESDAY the rain will continue much of the day and could be rather heavy at times in the central and southeastern counties, as winds continue to back around to the NE at 15-30 mph. Temperatures will be steady in the range of about 11-14 C.

The models have changed more in the period from Wednesday to Friday now, suggesting that this low will come to a halt over southern England and allow unsettled weather to continue for much of the week, but it should at least become more showery with a few brighter intervals developing in a NE to N flow. Temperatures later in the week appear likely to stay just a bit below average by day although nights will continue mild. I'm thinking that the longer this disturbed spell lasts, the longer the next settled warm and dry spell is likely to be, so there is that compensation.

Today (being Friday the 4th) here was yet another rather cloudy day with just slight amounts of rain early and again this evening, nothing more than 1 or 2 mms, but highs were held down to about 16 C by this cloud. The long spell of very warm weather in the northeast U.S. seems likely to end with a bang over the weekend as severe storms develop along a strong cold front later today in Ohio, reaching the northeast coastal cities on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium · 06-06-2010 6:08am

Sunday, 6 June, 2010
________________________

TODAY, periods of rain have developed in central Ireland and although this may begin to lose intensity after mid-morning the rain will continue to move slowly east into the Dublin region for late morning and mid-day. Amounts are likely to be 5-10 mms with this area of rain. Further west there will be intervals of cloud and sunshine for the first two-thirds of the day and areas of showery rain moving in from the Atlantic by late afternoon. Winds will generally be rather light throughout, a brief period of northerly winds will accompany the rain in the east (8-12 mph). Highs today will be 16-18 C.

TONIGHT the western counties will see further rain and any clear intervals in eastern Ireland should be followed by mostly cloudy skies before dawn. Lows will be 6-8 C.

MONDAY will see periods of rain developing again from west to east and these may be rather heavy in southern to south-central inland counties. The rain may not quite reach northern parts of Ulster, and some sunny breaks could persist there. Highs will be 14-16 C in most places and winds will pick up to ESE 10-25 mph.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with further rainfalls, the two-day total will be about 20-30 mms for some, and temperatures will be steady in the 11-14 C range with winds ENE 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY will brighten as rain tapers to isolated showers, and winds will be rather brisk NE 20-35 mph, with highs around 16 C.

THURSDAY, there could be a renewed interval of rain in the southeast as the slow-moving low redevelops over southern England. Otherwise most places will remain in the partly cloudy, showery northeast flow but with rather gusty winds 20-40 mph.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY should see this pattern very slowly relaxing with lighter northeast winds and possibly some longer sunny intervals but there will still be some cloud and showers around. Highs will be 17-19 C.

By the following week, a fairly warm and dry pattern is expected to return.

Meanwhile, where I live, the day (Sat 5th) was sunny and about 17 C with a strong NW breeze keeping it rather cool in exposed areas, but out of the wind it felt quite warm. Heavy storms have developed in the lower Great Lakes region and are moving towards NYC and Boston for Sunday.

mrsdewinter · 06-06-2010 10:29am

Hi MT,
Just wanted to add my own congratulations to the list. Only got into your forecasts during the big freeze in the New Year but I'm hooked on them now. Many many thanks - and keep it up!

lucernarian · 06-06-2010 11:30am

This terrible morning here has taken me completely by suprise. Were there many indications that there would be persistent rainfall still hanging over the country this morning? Windspeed is so low also, which I always felt was a particularly strong indicator of a stable atmosphere.

If anyone wants to shed light on this pesky front which is even now being understated by most models, please do!:D

Redsunset · 06-06-2010 12:06pm

Had periods of downpour around 6 this morning,and yesterday evening GFS had it fairly right.

And come midday louth holding on to the heavy precip.

Congrats on the win in football yesterday.good scoring

lucernarian · 06-06-2010 12:30pm

I didn't actually check the GFS model, only UKMO and Met Éireann forecasts. And the NAE model. That's one up for GFS so! I still can't identify what feature is causing this rainfall but I assume there is a trough of some sort, as M.T. Cranium outlined.

redsunset wrote:

Congrats on the win in football yesterday.good scoring

Thanks, I've been waiting quite a while to see a good performance sustained for the whole 70 minutes. Louth were an utterly different outfit to the one which scraped past Longford. It's only a LFC quarter final though so they shouldn't revel in this victory too much.

Su Campu · 06-06-2010 1:15pm

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I didn't actually check the GFS model, only UKMO and Met Éireann forecasts. And the NAE model. That's one up for GFS so! I still can't identify what feature is causing this rainfall but I assume there is a trough of some sort, as M.T. Cranium outlined.

The NAE and HIRLAM had this feature nailed too. Here's yesterday's NAE 12Z run for this morning.

It's linked to strong positive vorticity advection (PVA) ahead of a deep upper trough (see 300hPa below). Divergence above means lift from below, and it's this lift that has caused the precipitation.

Here is the ECMWF output for 06Z, showing the 300hPa trough and associated divergence.

owenc · 06-06-2010 1:20pm

Su Campu wrote: »

The NAE and HIRLAM had this feature nailed too. Here's yesterday's NAE 12Z run for this morning.

It's linked to strong positive vorticity advection (PVA) ahead of a deep upper trough (see 300hPa below). Divergence above means lift from below, and it's this lift that has caused the precipitation.

Here is the ECMWF output for 06Z, showing the 300hPa trough and associated divergence.

Well, it was wrong for here because i never had any rain and i havn't had any since april.

lucernarian · 06-06-2010 3:26pm

The NAE 18z didn't appear to have those features in any significance, which is what my comments were based upon. It did show heavier rainfall by 1pm, but off the wexford coast. GFS had called the timing and location much more accurately from what I saw on the radar when I reviewed it after redsunset's post. I do think it was being predicted in charts, but I didn't hear much from forecasters themselves about it. I was under the impression that some overnight showers might pay a visit during the night. Shows how much I know:p

I did check surface level pressure which indicated a col over Ireland. I didn't see the upper level charts.

And this is where my confusion lies. There didn't seem to be any symbols for an upper level trough on FAX charts either.

Aside from the GFS convection index charts and CAPE charts, how does one forecast for those sort of troughs? Basically I'm not fully grasping the mechanics of how this sort of trough materialises.

Su Campu · 06-06-2010 4:16pm

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

The NAE 18z didn't appear to have those features in any significance, which is what my comments were based upon. It did show heavier rainfall by 1pm, but off the wexford coast. GFS had called the timing and location much more accurately from what I saw on the radar when I reviewed it after redsunset's post. I do think it was being predicted in charts, but I didn't hear much from forecasters themselves about it. I was under the impression that some overnight showers might pay a visit during the night. Shows how much I know:p

I did check surface level pressure which indicated a col over Ireland. I didn't see the upper level charts.

And this is where my confusion lies. There didn't seem to be any symbols for an upper level trough on FAX charts either.

Aside from the GFS convection index charts and CAPE charts, how does one forecast for those sort of troughs? Basically I'm not fully grasping the mechanics of how this sort of trough materialises.

You may be slightly confusing surface and upper troughs. Any trough is an elongated minimum in either pressure or geopotential height. Surface troughs are minimima of surface pressure, and are depicted on a surface chart as they can contain bands of showers, and so are important features.

An upper trough is an elongated minimum in geopotential height, as in the chart above. You can see it running NW-SE from Galway, southeast through Cork and through Biscay. The jetstream will follow the height lines, therefore will run from the northwest on the west flank, and to the northeast on the east flank. As it is curving around the base of the trough, this generates vorticity in the atmopshere, which causes upward movement of the air from below.

Check this and this out for a proper explanation.

beco · 06-06-2010 4:31pm

Can anyone see whats in the charts for tomorrow at 3pm onwards in dublin for the women's mini marathon?
Thanks

pauldry · 06-06-2010 5:50pm

Dont have the charts to hand at the moment but it looks like a complete washout tomorrow in the South and East

10 to 20mm of rain possible:(

lucernarian · 06-06-2010 7:17pm

@Su Campu

That's not quite what I was getting at. I'm quite familiar with what a trough is in the first instance. I know of upper troughs but not as well as a typical surface trough. What I'm wondering is why there was not some sort of surface trough associated with the upper trough feature. Also, it took me a while to figure out exactly what the chart you referred to was which didn't help matters. The chart shows the height of the jet stream at 300hPa in dm, I assume.

So I'm not so confused now as I was earlier. I now wonder what caused the upper trough to be separated from any surface trough/shallow low in the first place. Is this a more regular occurrence than I am giving credit for?

Su Campu · 06-06-2010 9:24pm

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

@Su Campu

That's not quite what I was getting at. I'm quite familiar with what a trough is in the first instance. I know of upper troughs but not as well as a typical surface trough. What I'm wondering is why there was not some sort of surface trough associated with the upper trough feature.

But there was a surface trough associated with it - that's what gave all the rain!! (marked as an occlusion on today's FAX). In general, surface troughs are supported by upper features - without support from above, the surface activity cannot be sustained. So when you see a surface trough on a chart, you can be fairly sure there's something driving it from the upper atmosphere through the factors explained before.

Also, it took me a while to figure out exactly what the chart you referred to was which didn't help matters. The chart shows the height of the jet stream at 300hPa in dm, I assume.

The chart show the height of the 300hPa pressure level (blue lines, in dm), plus advection of positive vorticity (yellow area). It doesn't actually show the jet, but its path will follow the isolines.

So I'm not so confused now as I was earlier. I now wonder what caused the upper trough to be separated from any surface trough/shallow low in the first place. Is this a more regular occurrence than I am giving credit for?

Upper dynamics are responsible for most surface systems, be they lows or highs. In our latitudes, many atlantic depressions form under areas of upper divergence, and anticyclones form under upper convergence. Better explanation here

Deep Easterly · 06-06-2010 9:40pm

Su Campu wrote: »

But there was a surface trough associated with it - that's what gave all the rain!!

What would be the typical weather type for an unsupported surface trough? When I lived by the coast in Salthill I did notice we would occasionally get sudden increases in wind for short periods, (day or night, and often than not within a cloudy warm sector), these were often accompained by a small, barely detectable drop in pressure for a short period without any notable change in weather. Would this be an example of a surface trough without upper support?

Su Campu · 06-06-2010 10:00pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

What would be the typical weather type for an unsupported surface trough? When I lived by the coast in Salthill I did notice we would occasionally get sudden increases in wind for short periods, (day or night, and often than not within a cloudy warm sector), these were often accompained by a small, barely detectable drop in pressure for a short period without any notable change in weather. Would this be an example of a surface trough without upper support?

It could be anything. Such mesoscale features could be a due to many things, seabreezes, terrain, etc. so it's difficult to say without knowing the exact setup on the day. A drop in pressure and rise in windspeed usually means a seabreeze circulation, which acts independently of upper features (being only around 6000ft deep). Downslope flow from the mountains to the north could be another factor.

I think maybe we're hijacking MT's thread a bit, should we start a new one?

Deep Easterly · 06-06-2010 10:33pm

Su Campu wrote: »

It could be anything. Such mesoscale features could be a due to many things, seabreezes, terrain, etc. so it's difficult to say without knowing the exact setup on the day. A drop in pressure and rise in windspeed usually means a seabreeze circulation, which acts independently of upper features (being only around 6000ft deep). Downslope flow from the mountains to the north could be another factor.

I think maybe we're hijacking MT's thread a bit, should we start a new one?

Yep, I did suspect sea breezes but these little wind bursts could happen at any time and often under cloudy conditions, and usually from a SW or W direction.

Your right, thread is being spoiled. New thread that deals with niggly little questions like "what is the difference between an upper and surface low" sounds like a good idea. Go for it!

lucernarian · 07-06-2010 12:32am

It seems I'm not clarifying what it is I don't understand. I'll leave it at that, as posting in this or a new thread won't change any misunderstandings. Suffices to say, a quick google could have told me the differences in an upper or lower trough. I was asking a very specific question about this morning's rain, that was all.

Deep Easterly · 07-06-2010 1:22am

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

It seems I'm not clarifying what it is I don't understand. I'll leave it at that, as posting in this or a new thread won't change any misunderstandings. Suffices to say, a quick google could have told me the differences in an upper or lower trough. I was asking a very specific question about this morning's rain, that was all.

I am certainly no expert on upper troughs (they freak me out

), but the rain last night into this morning could have been partly the result of a conflict between the 850hpa and 300hpa wind streams, a conflict that developed late on the 5th. (I am open to contradiction on this as I am far from all knowing in this area

:o)

Here is the stream chart for 6am this morning showing both 850 and 300 streams:

850's (green) conflicting with 300's (orange) over the northeastern half of Ireland. Result, development and sustainment of a low pressure trough, or 'boundery zone' which is was shown on the 06z synoptic analysis on ZAMG:

First thing I look for though when trying to predict convective rain or showers is a shear between winds at 1000hpa and 500hps, but there are many more factors involved I know.

I think a new thread on this would be a good thing, might help those who are easily confused by these very complex factors to learn more about them. I need to learn about them at least.

M.T. Cranium · 07-06-2010 6:58am

Wow, and here I thought it was a holiday of some kind ... thanks for visiting, scientific community !!!

Anyway, back to the weather that cannot be avoided ...

Monday, 7 June, 2010
______________________

TODAY will bring periods of steady rain in southern counties and a more intermittent showery rainfall will edge further north during the morning -- it may stop short of most counties in Ulster. The cloud will probably dominate there as well, but with a bit more warmth getting through, highs in the north could be 16-18 C while further south it may hold at 13-15 C. Rainfalls of 10 to 30 mms will be fairly common in Munster as well as southern Leinster. Winds will pick up to SE 15-30 mph and could gust higher near the south coast, and later near the east coast.

TONIGHT will continue wet and breezy with lows only falling off slightly to about 9-11 C. A further 5-10 mms of rain will accumulate in many areas. Dry areas in Ulster could start to see drizzle too. Winds will back slightly to easterly 15-30 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY will remain wet and breezy as winds back to ENE 15-30 mph. The rain may become more showery especially in the northern half of the country and by afternoon the sun could be visible at times in Connacht. Highs will be mostly in the 13-15 C range.

WEDNESDAY will bring somewhat more settled conditions but the northeast flow will continue quite strong at 20-35 mph, with passing showers heavier in the east. The temperature range will be rather narrow, from lows near 8 C to highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY, there is some chance of a renewed period of steady and possibly heavy rain although it could stay off the southeast coast, as strong low pressure develops out of the remnants of the low responsible for today's rain, and moves north across England. What's more certain is that winds will increase and back around to northerly 20-40 mph. The weather may remain dry in Donegal and nearby counties although not everywhere as some showers may develop over the ocean too moving inland. Highs will be in the range of 14-16 C.

FRIDAY the rather windy and cool weather may begin to improve slowly and the rain should end as the systems move quickly away to the northeast. Winds will therefore swing back around to the NW and then W at 15-30 mph with higher gusts. Highs during the day will be 15-17 C.

The further outlook is settled as a ridge of high pressure develops from the Azores across Ireland. This should lead to a steady warming trend through next weekend and well into the following week. Highs could reach the low to mid 20s again.

Well, sorry that it has to rain on your holiday (if it does) but we've been getting light rain at times on our Sunday here, with a rather cool high of about 15 C. The storms further east ripped through Boston earlier, missed New York City ... and there was quite a bit of tree damage in parts of New England but nothing like the widespread damage the day before in the Great Lakes region. Looking ahead, some extremely hot air has moved out of its normal source regions in the southwestern deserts and is headed for Colorado and Kansas where later today it could be as hot as 40 deg C. :cool::eek:

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2010 6:52am

Tuesday, 8 June, 2010
_________________________

TODAY will remain mostly cloudy although there could be some brief brighter intervals. Light rain will tend to redevelop from northeast back towards the southwest, gradually. Highs will be 15-17 C and winds NE 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain, and lows 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY will see another bout of light rain moving around the stalled low (near the Channel) and highs will be 16 C or so, with another 5-15 mms of rain in some areas. Winds will continue moderate NE at 15-30 mph.

THURSDAY should be dry in most areas, but there could be showers in the southeast. Winds will continue NE 15-30 mph and highs will be near 16 C in the east to 18-20 C in the west, as more sunny breaks develop.

FRIDAY will be back to more cloud and isolated showers, NE winds backing to NNW 15-30 mph, and highs near 17 C.

THE WEEKEND is looking fairly promising with little if any rain and bright if somewhat cloudy skies on Saturday, probably turning more sunny for Sunday. Highs will remain near 20 C.

NEXT WEEK is still looking fairly warm and dry.

Meanwhile, the weather here on Monday 7th was partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals later on, and a high near 18 C. Severe storms have broken out in Nebraska overnight, moving towards Iowa and Illinois.

08-06-2010 8:47am

M.T Cranium, really enjoy reading your posts!

My brother is getting married in Dublin on Friday and the forecasts I've read for the day on various websites seem to swing from heavy rain and cool to sunny.
He's not too bothered what the weather's like but his bride is worried it will pour down and she won't get any photos outside.
So, Friday in the east?

magicray · 08-06-2010 9:15am

Deleted User wrote: »

M.T Cranium, really enjoy reading your posts!

My brother is getting married in Dublin on Friday and the forecasts I've read for the day on various websites seem to swing from heavy rain and cool to sunny.
He's not too bothered what the weather's like but his bride is worried it will pour down and she won't get any photos outside.
So, Friday in the east?

lol wonder are we going to the same wedding ?
I was just about to ask the same question, my sister is getting married on Friday in Dublin too !

Love your posts M. T. - first thing I read everyday when I turn on the computer

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2010 8:39pm

Based on the latest guidance, Friday in Dublin is not looking too bad, assuming this is early to mid afternoon, it should be partly cloudy with nothing more than a brief sprinkle of rain and quite possibly staying dry, a bit windy from the north to north east, and around 16 or 17 C. However, the forecast could change because there is a rather strong low with rain in the picture just to the southeast, so I would keep an eye on the forecasts and hope for the best.

M.T. Cranium · 09-06-2010 6:34am

Wednesday, 9 June, 2010
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TODAY will continue cloudy with only a few brief brighter intervals possibly in the southeast and also the northwest, away from a rather steady stream of light rain and drizzle moving from Ulster towards Munster in northeast winds of about 15-30 mph. Highs today will be 14-16 C (18 C where it brightens) and rainfall amounts mostly 3-7 mms.

TONIGHT will continue cloudy but the rain should become more of an intermittent drizzle before ending in most places. Winds will continue rather brisk from the northeast at 15-25 mph. Lows will reach 8-10 C.

THURSDAY should be a dry and partly cloudy day for most, but rain won't be far from the southeast so we should keep a chance of a shower for that part of the country (but it may be dry anyway). Winds will continue rather steady from the northeast at 15-25 mph, and highs will range from 15-17 C in the east to 18-20 C in the south and west.

FRIDAY (see previous post for some Dublin details requested) will probably stay dry as well in most places, but there could be some brief scattered showers more likely to be significant in north central and northwest counties. There will be sunny intervals despite a fairly extensive cloud cover. Highs will reach 16-18 C (after morning lows of 5-8 C).

THE WEEKEND is looking reasonable with high pressure beginning to dominate again. In a light northerly flow, backing to NW and then W, skies should be variably cloudy allowing some sunny intervals. Any light showers or drizzle would be more likely near the northwest coast. Highs will be 18-20 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking warm and dry as high pressure builds up again right over Ireland. Highs by mid-week could be back into the low or even mid 20s inland with very light winds returning.

M.T. Cranium · 10-06-2010 6:08am

Thursday, 10 June, 2010
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TODAY will bring some gradual improvements as the cloud begins to break apart in central counties, possibly holding as overcast in the southeast and parts of the northwest. There could be some light showers in those areas, although even there many places should remain dry. Sunshine might be more abundant in counties around Tipps, Cork, Limerick and Kerry by mid-day. Highs should respond to the sunshine by reaching 18-20 C but with more cloud cover will stay near 16 C. A steady northeast breeze backing at times to north will blow at 15-25 mph but it will be reasonably warm despite this.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and possibly clear at times, with just a slight chance of drizzle near the Mayo and Donegal coasts. Lows will be about 5-8 C on average (nights are getting very short now).

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy, with a slight risk of a brief shower by mid-day but these would be quite isolated. Winds will continue moderate from the north at about 15-25 mph, and highs will reach 17 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, some chance of low cloud, drizzle and fog near the outer west coast, and highs of about 20 C following a morning low near 8 C.

SUNDAY may bring a bit of light rain in Connacht mostly, 1-3 mms only, and other parts of Ireland should remain dry with some hazy sunshine at times, highs near 20 C. Winds will now be light westerly.

MONDAY will be about the same, partly cloudy, slight chance of a brief shower, winds turning a bit more northerly again, and highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY are looking warm and dry although some parts of the north coast could have low cloud and drizzle. Highs may be able to respond to the stronger sunshine by rising into the low 20s.

The weather here today (and yesterday) -- Tues/Wed 8th-9th -- has been ideal for outdoor activity, especially for those of us who don't like a lot of glare from the sun, as it has been mostly cloudy, dry with just the odd spit of rain in the evenings, and highs near 17 C. The very hot weather in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Kansas is now making a slow push east and should bring temperatures in New York and Boston back up this weekend once the rain from a warm front ends.

M.T. Cranium · 11-06-2010 7:06am

Friday, 11 June, 2010
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TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, more frequent this morning in the south, then as cloud shifts south, the sunny breaks will develop in the north by afternoon. As this cloud moves south, it brings with it some patchy light rain and showers, but amounts will be slight and some places could remain dry. Winds will be northerly backing to westerly later, and not too strong at 12-25 mph. Highs today will be 16 or 17 C for most.

TONIGHT will become clear with some patchy fog developing. Lows will be about 7 C.

SATURDAY will see increasing cloud with some light rain spreading into the northwest by evening. However, for most parts of Ireland the day should be dry and reasonably pleasant with some morning sunny intervals, moderate westerly winds and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and periods of drizzle or light rain more frequent in the north and west. It may be more of a mist than actual rain and so not a washout by any means, with highs of about 19 C.

MONDAY will become breezy again from the NW to N with passing showers especially in Ulster but to some extent elsewhere as well, and just a touch cooler with the low near 7 C and the high near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy, dry and reasonably warm despite a slight northerly wind, with highs near 20 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are looking settled, warm and dry. The winds are going to turn more to the northeast then east as the expected Atlantic high is now showing signs of ridging over the north into Scotland. This will allow the air flow to warm up over the UK before it heads for Ireland and so it should be about 22-24 C away from the Irish Sea coasts where 18-20 C due to sea breezes.

Meanwhile, the weather here on Thursday (10th) was cloudy with intervals of light rain and a high of about 16 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-06-2010 7:02am

Saturday, 12 June, 2010
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The new moon occurs today at about 1115 GMT or 1215 summer time. At that moment, the Moon will be slightly above the Sun, so no eclipse occurs. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some seismic activity of a minor nature associated with this close syzygy. Tidal ranges will be high although there's very little wind to build up local water levels beyond the tide table amounts.

Forecast follows from yesterday, just some editing changes ...

TODAY will see increasing cloud with some light rain spreading into the northwest by late afternoon or evening. However, for most parts of Ireland the day should be dry and reasonably pleasant with some morning sunny intervals, moderate westerly winds and highs near 20 C.

TONIGHT will become cloudy with light rain at times mostly in Connacht and west Ulster. Lows will fall to about 10-11 C, perhaps 8 C in the southeast where skies may remain clear longer.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and periods of drizzle or light rain more frequent in the north and west. There may be some embedded heavier showers moving southeast from about Donegal to Meath during the second half of the day in association with a frontal wave dropping southeast in a rapidly strengthening jet stream. Otherwise, it may be more of a mist than actual rain and so not a washout by any means in southern counties especially, with highs of about 19 C.

MONDAY will become breezy again from the NW to N 15-30 mph, with passing showers especially in Ulster but to some extent elsewhere as well, and just a touch cooler in partly cloudy conditions, with the low near 7 C and the high near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy, dry and reasonably warm despite a slight northerly wind, with highs near 20 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are looking settled, warm and dry. The winds are going to turn more to the northeast then east as the expected Atlantic high is now showing signs of ridging over the north into Scotland. This will allow the air flow to warm up over the UK before it heads for Ireland and so it should be about 22-24 C away from the Irish Sea coasts where 18-20 C due to sea breezes. (More recent guidance showing this ridge back a little south again, right over central Ireland, looks very nice, and this spell does not show signs of ending rapidly either).

The weather here on Friday (11th) was partly cloudy at first, then sunny with highs of about 19 C. We are looking at some sunshine for Saturday and showers for late Sunday, so a fairly similar weekend to yours, with a front dropping southeast late Sunday too (where exactly am I? this tends to get me very disoriented when the weather does this).

Enjoy the weekend ... I know I will.

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