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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #1862
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Reversal wrote: »
    Ehh.. but house prices are lower now than they were two years ago.

    Houses prices peaked in 2018. We have fallen since then and are now circa 2017 prices.

    Gone are the days of a house on Oxmanstown road securing +400k


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    #1863
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,209 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Very good point. But it does give the bigger players e.g. Cairn Homes etc., a great cost advantage over the newer entrants in the next year or two. If e.g. Cairn Homes wants to encourage more sales, they can reduce their prices more easily than some of the developers who bought sites in the last 2 years, as the Cairn Homes of the building world would have bought most of their landbank at a much lower price before site values started increasing.

    This is a misconception, in any business that supplies a product, you have to work off projected replacement cost. If Carins homes worked on that proposition it would go out of business if site prices fell. It competitive advantage is being in the game longer than others newer developers and having a bigger scale.

    If house prices fall so will site prices, therefore Carnins can continue building, the other builder may not. However he could chance dropping his prices if the site was near completion so as to access another cheaper site.

    Carina are at the scale where this is not a factor

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #1864
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Reversal wrote: »
    Ehh.. but house prices ARE lower now than they were two years ago.

    522901.jpg

    Great graph. So, it looks like we're following the same path as last time. 2 years of slowly falling prices followed by a massive plummet once both buyers and sellers fully understand what's going on. With no international investment funds to soak up all the unsold properties this time around, we may be in for a decade or so of continuously falling prices.


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    #1865
    tigger123
    Registered Users Posts: 4,449 ✭✭✭tigger123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Great graph. So, it looks like we're following the same path as last time. 2 years of slowly falling prices followed by a massive plummet once both buyers and sellers fully understand what's going on. With no international investment funds to soak up all the unsold properties this time around, we may be in for a decade or so of continuously falling prices.

    Can I ask what you interest is here? Are you waiting to purchase a home?

    I bought in the last few years, have a steady job, and will be here for a while, so I don't really care about prices going up or down.

    If anything, I would like them to go down so as to allow more people on average incomes to be able to buy a home.


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    #1866
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Very good point. But it does give the bigger players e.g. Cairn Homes etc., a great cost advantage over the newer entrants in the next year or two. If e.g. Cairn Homes wants to encourage more sales, they can reduce their prices more easily than some of the developers who bought sites in the last 2 years, as the Cairn Homes of the building world would have bought most of their landbank at a much lower price before site values started increasing.

    and why would they lower their prices?


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    #1867
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Reversal wrote: »
    Ehh.. but house prices ARE lower now than they were two years ago.

    522901.jpg

    Looks relatively stable over the last couple of years considering the significant year on year increases before that. I though that’s what a stable market would look like - small fluctuations in price supply? Is that what it looks like in other countries with a ‘stable’ market? What would also be good to see in this graph is also the number of units sold.


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    #1868
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Reversal wrote: »
    Ehh.. but house prices ARE lower now than they were two years ago.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=522901&stc=1&d=1597324805

    but house prices ARE higher now than they were in 2019 December.
    Pelezico wrote: »
    Houses prices peaked in 2018. We have fallen since then and are now circa 2017 prices.

    Gone are the days of a house on Oxmanstown road securing +400k

    Houses prices peaked in 2007. We have fallen since then and are now circa 2005 prices.


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    #1869
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    tigger123 wrote: »
    Can I ask what you interest is here? Are you waiting to purchase a home?

    I bought in the last few years, have a steady job, and will be here for a while, so I don't really care about prices going up or down.

    If anything, I would like them to go down so as to allow more people on average incomes to be able to buy a home.

    No real interest in if they go up or down at the moment as I'm almost mortgage free. However, my younger ones will be looking to buy soon and it seems most of the media coverage appears to be on the upside, while most of the evidence seems to be signaling towards the other direction. If too many younger people buy at the wrong time, the government is likely to raid my pension fund again to pay for the fallout, so I'd rather they fall to their natural price level quicker rather than later to keep my pension in tact.


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    #1870
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    PropQueries wrote: »
    No real interest in if they go up or down at the moment as I'm almost mortgage free. However, my younger ones will be looking to buy soon and it seems most of the media coverage appears to be on the upside, while most of the evidence seems to be signaling towards the other direction. If too many younger people buy at the wrong time, the government is likely to raid my pension fund again to pay for the fallout, so I'd rather they fall to their natural price level quicker rather than later to keep my pension in tact.


    I am in the same boat. If house prices fall, it represents a nonn cash transfer to my son.

    For me it is a no brainer. I want them to fall...and am pleased with progress so far...at least in the areas of interest to my children


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    #1871
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I am in the same boat. If house prices fall, it represents a nonn cash transfer to my son.

    For me it is a no brainer. I want them to fall...and am pleased with progress so far...at least in the areas of interest to my children

    That's true. The government seems to think all us oldies want our homes to keep increasing for ever. The problem is that our generation (even the ones without kids) are going to pay for it, one way or the other. For example, I read an article recently where the report recommended increasing the pension age to 75.


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    #1872
    Jimi H
    Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭Jimi H


    At the end of Q1, over 63k mortgages were in arrears for PDH and over 16k for buy to lets. I’m sure the figures are sadly a lot worse since then. What happens exactly with these houses? Do people leave the houses when they become unaffordable? Hopefully we’ll see a lot more new builds to allow people live in houses they can afford.

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears/residential-mortgage-arrears-and-repossession-statistics-march-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=4


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    #1873
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    and why would they lower their prices?

    Because they're a publicly quoted company and investors look at sales and they can't be using covid as an excuse for ever. Investors need to see that there really is demand for the homes they're building at the moment.


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    #1874
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Jimi H wrote: »
    At the end of Q1, over 63k mortgages were in arrears for PDH and over 16k for buy to lets. I’m sure the figures are sadly a lot worse since then. What happens exactly with these houses? Do people leave the houses when they become unaffordable? Hopefully we’ll see a lot more new builds to allow people live in houses they can afford.

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears/residential-mortgage-arrears-and-repossession-statistics-march-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=4

    This country does not do repossessions of family homes any but to lets may come on stream do


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    #1875
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,439 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Because they're a publicly quoted company and investors look at sales and they can't be using covid as an excuse for ever. Investors need to see that there really is demand for the homes they're building at the moment.

    Are they struggling to sell their houses at the moment? Where have you seen this, and where have you seen them use covid as an excuse?


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    #1876
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    awec wrote: »
    Are they struggling to sell their houses at the moment? Where have you seen this, and where have you seen them use covid as an excuse?

    The initial exchange was a debate on why the bigger players have an advantage over the newer entrants into the market. For example, if Cairn Homes bought their sites for €15k each and a new entrant bought their sites for €60k last year, if there was a slowdown in the market, Cairn Homes would be in a much better position to lower their asking prices to move their stock more quickly in such a scenario.


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    #1877
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Because they're a publicly quoted company and investors look at sales and they can't be using covid as an excuse for ever. Investors need to see that there really is demand for the homes they're building at the moment.

    Are you for real there is report after report stating that we need a sh1t load more housing, Were you not here for the recent elections I seen nearly every party have some kind of spiel about more housing, not one said its ok we have enough? We have a housing list which is very very high in the country, where are you getting this analysis from that we don't need more houses?

    Just from a quick google search first page. i could go to the second and third page but every report is stating we need more housing not one link or report says we have sufficient or too much housing. If you can provide some evidence of what your saying and before you show me the report of unoccupied houses the argument of the validity of this report has been done to death , the analysis was flawed and proven to have a lot of houses down as unoccupied that were being lived in.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-many-houses-do-we-really-need-1.3515359

    https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/ireland-needs-60000-houses-built-16388836


    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1210/1098192-central-bank-housing-demand/

    https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/can-ireland-step-back-from-housing-cliff-edge-38936889.html

    https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/research/spotlight-research/why-fixing-irelands-housing-crisis-requires-change-policy


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    #1878
    tigger123
    Registered Users Posts: 4,449 ✭✭✭tigger123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    No real interest in if they go up or down at the moment as I'm almost mortgage free. However, my younger ones will be looking to buy soon and it seems most of the media coverage appears to be on the upside, while most of the evidence seems to be signaling towards the other direction. If too many younger people buy at the wrong time, the government is likely to raid my pension fund again to pay for the fallout, so I'd rather they fall to their natural price level quicker rather than later to keep my pension in tact.

    It's all idle speculation.

    I've been following this forum for years and people in here have been consistently predicting a fall in house prices just around the corner.

    IMHO, years of appalling housing policy and under supply, coupled with predictions that we need somewhere between 25k and 47k houses per year to meet future demand, more than likely means that any dip in house prices right now will only be temporary. Housing is a very expensive commodity that is very scarce.

    The best time to buy was 5 years ago (as they say).


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    #1879
    BEdS_83
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭BEdS_83


    awec wrote: »
    Are they struggling to sell their houses at the moment? Where have you seen this, and where have you seen them use covid as an excuse?

    good question, because I fired up a few emails last week, got 1 answered that the house was sale agreed already and they forgot to change the ad, and this week got another 2 answers, again, sale agreed, doesn't look like RE are having problem to sell..

    and 1 of them the RE didn't even care to write my name, just seemed that a canned answer to a group of people, "hi, the 10 Parkside is now sale agreed, thank you!" (almost like that)

    in fairness, I didn't ask for houses 20 yo, BER=E

    lol


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    #1880
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Are you for real there is report after report stating that we need a sh1t load more housing, Were you not here for the recent elections I seen nearly every party have some kind of spiel about more housing, not one said its ok we have enough? We have a housing list which is very very high in the country, where are you getting this analysis from that we don't need more houses?

    Just from a quick google search first page. i could go to the second and third page but every report is stating we need more housing not one link or report says we have sufficient or too much housing. If you can provide some evidence of what your saying and before you show me the report of unoccupied houses the argument of the validity of this report has been done to death , the analysis was flawed and proven to have a lot of houses down as unoccupied that were being lived in.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-many-houses-do-we-really-need-1.3515359

    https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/ireland-needs-60000-houses-built-16388836


    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1210/1098192-central-bank-housing-demand/

    https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/can-ireland-step-back-from-housing-cliff-edge-38936889.html

    https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/research/spotlight-research/why-fixing-irelands-housing-crisis-requires-change-policy

    Well, the latest GeoDirectory report in June said there's 90,000 vacant houses in Ireland. Even if they're all located in the middle of nowhere, it then gives lie to the idea that rural homes will increase in value due to more people working from home, as there would be an existing massive over-supply of housing stock still available outside the major cities.

    https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE


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    #1881
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Well, the latest GeoDirectory report in June said there's 90,000 vacant houses in Ireland. Even if they're all located in the middle of nowhere, it then gives lie to the idea that rural homes will increase in value due to more people working from home, as there would be an existing massive over-supply of housing stock still available outside the major cities.

    https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE

    This report has been proven to be nonsense since. Can I ask why would every political party the lefties, righties and the lads down the middle why would one of the basis for all of them to try to get into government be dealing with the "housing problem"?? So in your mind the housing problem is there is too much property?


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    #1882
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    This report has been proven to be nonsense since. Can I ask why would every political party the lefties, righties and the lads down the middle why would one of the basis for all of them to try to get into government be dealing with the "housing problem"?? So in your mind the housing problem is there is too much property?

    That's where I get confused. There's only two reports that actually do count, on the ground, the number of vacant homes in the country. One is the Census, which nobody seems to believe and the other is this GeoDirectory report. Where's the report that went around and counted all the vacant properties, as these two reports actually did, and said there's very little vacant homes?


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    #1883
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,209 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    tigger123 wrote: »

    The best time to buy was 5 years ago (as they say).

    The question you should ask is in this country since WW 2 when we're the bad times to buy a house.

    The answer is from about 2007-2010. That about 4 years in 75 years period

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #1884
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,876 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    The question you should ask is in this country since WW 2 when we're the bad times to buy a house.

    The answer is from about 2007-2010. That about 4 years in 75 years period

    theres never a perfect time to buy a house, because nobody knows when they are, at any moment in time, its truly a personal experience, weight up your personal situation, take a chance, and hope for the best, because nobody has all the information all the time, and theres probably more variables completely out of your control


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    #1885
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    That's where I get confused. There's only two reports that actually do count, on the ground, the number of vacant homes in the country. One is the Census, which nobody seems to believe and the other is this GeoDirectory report. Where's the report that went around and counted all the vacant properties, as these two reports actually did, and said there's very little vacant homes?

    The census is open to all kinds of manipulation, people have told you about personal experiences of their house being down as vacant when they were not, I also showed you that the manipulation would only show houses that were occupied that would be reported as vacant and not the other way around, I also gave the example of the garda blowing into breathalyzers as a case of human nature that people will more times than not will do the bare minimum when doing monotonous tasks and going door to door seeing if someone is home is exactly that, we went through this last week. They are not the only reports that count so the housing list doesn't count? Look I don't doubt there are a good number of houses in ghost estates that are unoccupied but you should not confuse this with the country needs to build more houses in particular the highly populated areas.


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    #1886
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    thread for ongoing census discussion over here please folks: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058102792


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    #1887
    The Spider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Well, the latest GeoDirectory report in June said there's 90,000 vacant houses in Ireland. Even if they're all located in the middle of nowhere, it then gives lie to the idea that rural homes will increase in value due to more people working from home, as there would be an existing massive over-supply of housing stock still available outside the major cities.

    https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE

    Grasping at straws much? Defining a Rural is tricky, do you consider Wexford Rural, or Waterford or Kilkenny? How about Clare or Galway? Leitrim would qualify I think.

    Point is when we talk about people moving out of cities to bigger houses in the country that will increase in price because of demand, we’re really only talking about Dublin, people will still want to relatively close to an Urban area, whether that’s a town or a city, now those 90’000 empty houses if they are in the middle of nowhere are vacant for a reason, no access to services, towns etc, and I’ve seen a fair few houses with no one in em in the middle of nowhere and unlikely to have anyone in them because of their location


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    #1888
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    The Spider wrote: »
    Grasping at straws much? Defining a Rural is tricky, do you consider Wexford Rural, or Waterford or Kilkenny? How about Clare or Galway? Leitrim would qualify I think.

    Point is when we talk about people moving out of cities to bigger houses in the country that will increase in price because of demand, we’re really only talking about Dublin, people will still want to relatively close to an Urban area, whether that’s a town or a city, now those 90’000 empty houses if they are in the middle of nowhere are vacant for a reason, no access to services, towns etc, and I’ve seen a fair few houses with no one in em in the middle of nowhere and unlikely to have anyone in them because of their location

    Well, maybe they are all located in Co. Leitrim...


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    #1889
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    fliball123 wrote: »
    This report has been proven to be nonsense since. Can I ask why would every political party the lefties, righties and the lads down the middle why would one of the basis for all of them to try to get into government be dealing with the "housing problem"?? So in your mind the housing problem is there is too much property?

    Just to clarify, GeoDirectory reports should not be confused with 2016 Census discussed previously.
    Actually GeoDirectory reports, I think it's the best what we have in Ireland in regards to Housing Stocks. Although I wouldn't comment how precise it is regarding the vacancy, as it is so complex term.


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    #1890
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Marius34 wrote: »
    Just to clarify, GeoDirectory reports should not be confused with 2016 Census discussed previously.
    Actually GeoDirectory reports, I think it's the best what we have in Ireland in regards to Housing Stocks. Although I wouldn't comment how precise it is regarding the vacancy, as it is so complex term.

    Even if both reports are bang on accurate a report that shows houses in the back a$$ of nowhere empty has zero correlation to the housing needs of a country


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    #1891
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Even if both reports are bang on accurate a report that shows houses in the back a$$ of nowhere empty has zero correlation to the housing needs of a country

    They do matter if the WFH phenomenon is actually real and the Government carries through on it's intention to connect up every existing house in Ireland to super-fast broadband.


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