PropQueries wrote: » Very good point. But it does give the bigger players e.g. Cairn Homes etc., a great cost advantage over the newer entrants in the next year or two. If e.g. Cairn Homes wants to encourage more sales, they can reduce their prices more easily than some of the developers who bought sites in the last 2 years, as the Cairn Homes of the building world would have bought most of their landbank at a much lower price before site values started increasing.
Reversal wrote: » Ehh.. but house prices ARE lower now than they were two years ago.
Reversal wrote: » Ehh.. but house prices ARE lower now than they were two years ago.https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=522901&stc=1&d=1597324805
Pelezico wrote: » Houses prices peaked in 2018. We have fallen since then and are now circa 2017 prices. Gone are the days of a house on Oxmanstown road securing +400k
tigger123 wrote: » Can I ask what you interest is here? Are you waiting to purchase a home? I bought in the last few years, have a steady job, and will be here for a while, so I don't really care about prices going up or down. If anything, I would like them to go down so as to allow more people on average incomes to be able to buy a home.
PropQueries wrote: » No real interest in if they go up or down at the moment as I'm almost mortgage free. However, my younger ones will be looking to buy soon and it seems most of the media coverage appears to be on the upside, while most of the evidence seems to be signaling towards the other direction. If too many younger people buy at the wrong time, the government is likely to raid my pension fund again to pay for the fallout, so I'd rather they fall to their natural price level quicker rather than later to keep my pension in tact.
Pelezico wrote: » I am in the same boat. If house prices fall, it represents a nonn cash transfer to my son. For me it is a no brainer. I want them to fall...and am pleased with progress so far...at least in the areas of interest to my children
fliball123 wrote: » and why would they lower their prices?
Jimi H wrote: » At the end of Q1, over 63k mortgages were in arrears for PDH and over 16k for buy to lets. I’m sure the figures are sadly a lot worse since then. What happens exactly with these houses? Do people leave the houses when they become unaffordable? Hopefully we’ll see a lot more new builds to allow people live in houses they can afford.https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears/residential-mortgage-arrears-and-repossession-statistics-march-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=4
PropQueries wrote: » Because they're a publicly quoted company and investors look at sales and they can't be using covid as an excuse for ever. Investors need to see that there really is demand for the homes they're building at the moment.
awec wrote: » Are they struggling to sell their houses at the moment? Where have you seen this, and where have you seen them use covid as an excuse?
fliball123 wrote: » Are you for real there is report after report stating that we need a sh1t load more housing, Were you not here for the recent elections I seen nearly every party have some kind of spiel about more housing, not one said its ok we have enough? We have a housing list which is very very high in the country, where are you getting this analysis from that we don't need more houses? Just from a quick google search first page. i could go to the second and third page but every report is stating we need more housing not one link or report says we have sufficient or too much housing. If you can provide some evidence of what your saying and before you show me the report of unoccupied houses the argument of the validity of this report has been done to death , the analysis was flawed and proven to have a lot of houses down as unoccupied that were being lived in.https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-many-houses-do-we-really-need-1.3515359https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/ireland-needs-60000-houses-built-16388836https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1210/1098192-central-bank-housing-demand/https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/can-ireland-step-back-from-housing-cliff-edge-38936889.htmlhttps://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/research/spotlight-research/why-fixing-irelands-housing-crisis-requires-change-policy
PropQueries wrote: » Well, the latest GeoDirectory report in June said there's 90,000 vacant houses in Ireland. Even if they're all located in the middle of nowhere, it then gives lie to the idea that rural homes will increase in value due to more people working from home, as there would be an existing massive over-supply of housing stock still available outside the major cities.https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE
fliball123 wrote: » This report has been proven to be nonsense since. Can I ask why would every political party the lefties, righties and the lads down the middle why would one of the basis for all of them to try to get into government be dealing with the "housing problem"?? So in your mind the housing problem is there is too much property?
tigger123 wrote: » The best time to buy was 5 years ago (as they say).
Bass Reeves wrote: » The question you should ask is in this country since WW 2 when we're the bad times to buy a house. The answer is from about 2007-2010. That about 4 years in 75 years period
PropQueries wrote: » That's where I get confused. There's only two reports that actually do count, on the ground, the number of vacant homes in the country. One is the Census, which nobody seems to believe and the other is this GeoDirectory report. Where's the report that went around and counted all the vacant properties, as these two reports actually did, and said there's very little vacant homes?
The Spider wrote: » Grasping at straws much? Defining a Rural is tricky, do you consider Wexford Rural, or Waterford or Kilkenny? How about Clare or Galway? Leitrim would qualify I think. Point is when we talk about people moving out of cities to bigger houses in the country that will increase in price because of demand, we’re really only talking about Dublin, people will still want to relatively close to an Urban area, whether that’s a town or a city, now those 90’000 empty houses if they are in the middle of nowhere are vacant for a reason, no access to services, towns etc, and I’ve seen a fair few houses with no one in em in the middle of nowhere and unlikely to have anyone in them because of their location
Marius34 wrote: » Just to clarify, GeoDirectory reports should not be confused with 2016 Census discussed previously. Actually GeoDirectory reports, I think it's the best what we have in Ireland in regards to Housing Stocks. Although I wouldn't comment how precise it is regarding the vacancy, as it is so complex term.
fliball123 wrote: » Even if both reports are bang on accurate a report that shows houses in the back a$$ of nowhere empty has zero correlation to the housing needs of a country
PropQueries wrote: » They do matter if the WFH phenomenon is actually real and the Government carries through on it's intention to connect up every existing house in Ireland to super-fast broadband.
fliball123 wrote: » Working from home will not instantly sort out essential infrastructure such as Fast broadband or decent Roads, Public Transport, Schools, Hospitals/GPs, Creche, Shops, Restaurants, Pubs , ye know things that make a place livable/bearable. Your reaching now I think anyone looking at your argument of 90k unoccupied houses some of which were mislabeled and are occupied, some of which the work was not done properly due to the monotonous nature of knocking on doors and with this bringing that 90k right down the majority of the unoccupied are in areas that the majority of people simply dont want to live there otherwise we would not have a housing list of nearly 70K people waiting to be housedhttps://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30969860.html
Cantstandsya wrote: » There's a bit of the George Bush "Mission Accomplished" about people coming on here to proclaim that because prices haven't gone down yet they never will. Perhaps they won't but we are not through this yet, the government still has the economy on life support and Varadckar was out saying this could last another two years.
Pelezico wrote: » We haven't even got halfway through the downturn yet guys. I see house prices have reduced to 2017 levels The autumn will bring a lot of pain.
TheSheriff wrote: » Just for context; while I do expect some modest price drops, I have been coming to this forum for 2 years, and for 2 years the advice has been that price drops are coming. Before Covid it was Brexit. At some point people will be correct.
PropQueries wrote: » If there were 40,000 people over the age of 80 in Dublin in the last Census, would that mean there's homes for 40,000 younger people about to enter the market (to rent or buy) in the very near future? Just not sure why there's never any commentary in the media about this fact as it does seem like a lot of potential supply coming down the tracks that nobody seems to factor in.
PropQueries wrote: » Great graph. So, it looks like we're following the same path as last time. 2 years of slowly falling prices followed by a massive plummet once both buyers and sellers fully understand what's going on. With no international investment funds to soak up all the unsold properties this time around, we may be in for a decade or so of continuously falling prices.
PropQueries wrote: » Those 70k people waiting to be housed can all be housed by the 148k people over the age of 80 in Ireland whose homes will very soon become available to them.
