Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

Gumbo

smurgen wrote: »

Tell em to have patience and start low balling . The sooner sellers get used to this as the new normal the better it will be for everyone. The power dynamic has changed and sellers are to be price takers now. Estate agents would want to up the professionalism too. Too many Del Boy type characters who'll be out of the job unless they begin to start showing some transparency.

Ok, when you’ve actually bought somewhere, let us know how this strategy worked out.

Thanks.

Bass Reeves

Gumbo wrote: »

Ok, when you’ve actually bought somewhere, let us know how this strategy worked out.

Thanks.

Low balling only eworks, if you are the only bidder, if vendors pricing is unrealistic and or the property has been on the market some time

JJJackal

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Low balling only eworks, if you are the only bidder, if vendors pricing is unrealistic and or the property has been on the market some time

And if the vendor needs to sell!

awec

Gumbo wrote: »

Ok, when you’ve actually bought somewhere, let us know how this strategy worked out.

Thanks.

Yea it's truly a bizarre notion that sellers should start leaving money on the table and no longer sell for the best price they can get.

smurgen

Gumbo wrote: »

Ok, when you’ve actually bought somewhere, let us know how this strategy worked out.

Thanks.

Will do ðŸ‘

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Anyone know why the market in Dublin seems so strong in some areas currently despite CoVid?

Two things have been mentioned supply shortage and people using their mortgage approval before it expires. But on the mortgage approval piece, aren't banks asking for letters to prove you haven't been affected which may moot this point?

Seems overall, it may not be a dead cat bounce and just will remain competitive due to supply.

Queenio

MattS1 wrote: »

Anyone know why the market in Dublin seems so strong in some areas currently despite CoVid?

Two things have been mentioned supply shortage and people using their mortgage approval before it expires. But on the mortgage approval piece, aren't banks asking for letters to prove you haven't been affected which may moot this point?

Seems overall, it may not be a dead cat bounce and just will remain competitive due to supply.

I suspect it's lack of supply and people not putting houses on the market atm for fear of getting a poor price. Im looking in a restricted south dublin area and not one house has been added in one of the more popular areas in the last two weeks apart from one house in very very poor condition for an executor sale. And I honestly think that one is completely over priced but it has had a very busy viewing within 48 hours

Bass Reeves

JJJackal wrote: »

And if the vendor needs to sell!

All vendors need to sell to a certain extent. You one or two of the other reasons to be in play as well. If there is more buyers than sellers vendors needing to sell is not an issue

Villa05

awec wrote:

Yea it's truly a bizarre notion that sellers should start leaving money on the table and no longer sell for the best price they can get.

Is the property market a market that only ever rises.

The vast majority of houses in this country were purchased at a price well below current market prices?

With regards to property market, is it not possible for "profit taking" to occur as happens in all other asset markets?

I tried to get an answer to this from our estate agent poster who has gone but they dodged the question all the time

smurgen

MattS1 wrote: »

Anyone know why the market in Dublin seems so strong in some areas currently despite CoVid?

Two things have been mentioned supply shortage and people using their mortgage approval before it expires. But on the mortgage approval piece, aren't banks asking for letters to prove you haven't been affected which may moot this point?

Seems overall, it may not be a dead cat bounce and just will remain competitive due to supply.

I think demand is about to collapse. The WFH/ relocation of workers is being looked at by multinationals. They are looking at the tax implications of this with the accounting and tax firms currently.

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1282302449387286528?s=19

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

I think demand is about to collapse. The WFH/ relocation of workers is being looked at by multinationals. They are looking at the tax implications of this with the accounting and tax firms currently.

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1282302449387286528?s=19

Did you read and understand the article ? I don’t think you did .

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

Is the property market a market that only ever rises.

The vast majority of houses in this country were purchased at a price well below current market prices?

With regards to property market, is it not possible for "profit taking" to occur as happens in all other asset markets?

I tried to get an answer to this from our estate agent poster who has gone but they dodged the question all the time

I bought in 2002 outside of Dublin. Taking into account inflation, I would be unlikely to get back what has been put in.

Profit taking hardly works if you are living in the asset. If it's an investment property, you might want to line up an alternative investment with equal or greater returns. Taking into account the CGT, I think you might be struggling.

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Is the property market a market that only ever rises.

The vast majority of houses in this country were purchased at a price well below current market prices?

With regards to property market, is it not possible for "profit taking" to occur as happens in all other asset markets?

I tried to get an answer to this from our estate agent poster who has gone but they dodged the question all the time

If someone can sell their house for 100k profit, why on earth would they sell it for less profit than that? It is nonsensical. Sellers need to realise that they're price takers etc, they'll realise that when it's actually the reality, prices will drop when demand really drops and not a moment before it. The market doesn't change based on what's written in newspapers or posted on boards.ie, it changes based on what's really happening out there, and at the moment it seems by and large sellers are still succeeding in offloading their property without having to take big hits on price.

There appears to be frustration from some that the bargains they were expecting to see are not materialising as quickly as they thought. They will need to be patient.

cnocbui

smurgen wrote: »

I think demand is about to collapse. The WFH/ relocation of workers is being looked at by multinationals. They are looking at the tax implications of this with the accounting and tax firms currently.

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1282302449387286528?s=19

Reading between the lines, there is a good chance they will call them back if they will be slugged more tax, which they should be. This country offers a low corporate tax rate as there is a belief the employment generated is worth the discount. If the Multinationals stop holding up their end of the deal, even the Irish government might be stirred to do something.

cnocbui

A bargain is something no one else wants to buy.

awec

It was posted on here numerous times that remote working outside the state came with complications and tax implications and it was rubbished by the usual suspects keen to portray a view that Ireland's MNCs were going to become remote working hubs that employ hardly anyone here. The MNCs enjoy a low corporation tax rate in exchange for providing employment in the state.

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

Did you read and understand the article ? I don’t think you did .

Yep. They're going to get challenged on substance issues and may have to pay more tax as a result. Or keep the bear minimum employees here to satisfy rules. Either was it means employees are going to be relocating, the issue is how many?

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

Yep. They're going to get challenged on substance issues and may have to pay more tax as a result. Or keep the bear minimum employees here to satisfy rules. Either was it means employees are going to be relocating, the issue is how many?

That’s not what the article says. You don’t understand it or you are making things up to suit your own agenda. MNCs advises employees that they would face persona tax liability if they were gone over 6 months. MNCs know they have corporate tax challenges due to where work takes place as you said.
I don’t care either way but get your facts straight.

smurgen

Hubertj wrote: »

That’s not what the article says. You don’t understand it or you are making things up to suit your own agenda. MNCs advises employees that they would face persona tax liability if they were gone over 6 months. MNCs know they have corporate tax challenges due to where work takes place as you said.
I don’t care either way but get your facts straight.

They will. At which point the employee can opt to pay tax in another jurisdiction.the multinational can allow this until their corporate tax is scrutinized by Revenue. They will need to be able to evidence substance in Ireland to avail of the low corporate tax.

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

They will. At which point the employee can opt to pay tax in another jurisdiction.the multinational can allow this until their corporate tax is scrutinized by Revenue. They will need to be able to evidence substance in Ireland to avail of the low corporate tax.

Many have been told to come back within 6 months - where I work, LinkedIn and Google all communicated that to their employees. But you keep peddling whatever you want

JimmyVik

MattS1 wrote: »

Anyone know why the market in Dublin seems so strong in some areas currently despite CoVid?

Two things have been mentioned supply shortage and people using their mortgage approval before it expires. But on the mortgage approval piece, aren't banks asking for letters to prove you haven't been affected which may moot this point?

Seems overall, it may not be a dead cat bounce and just will remain competitive due to supply.

Cpuncils now saying they are going to buy ex airbnbs or long term lease them. So they wont be coming back to the market to normal buyers either

Bass Reeves

Villa05 wrote: »

Is the property market a market that only ever rises.

The vast majority of houses in this country were purchased at a price well below current market prices?

With regards to property market, is it not possible for "profit taking" to occur as happens in all other asset markets?

I tried to get an answer to this from our estate agent poster who has gone but they dodged the question all the time

Why would you profit take and pay 33% tax on any profit accrued. As there are costs involved, between solicitors and estate agents along with tax you could be looking at a 40% cost on a 100k profit.

If you decide to rebuy it could cost you another 3-5k in stamp duty, solicitors fees, professional fees. The only time you sell is if you do not intend to repurchase

Top Dog

smurgen wrote: »

They will. At which point the employee can opt to pay tax in another jurisdiction.the multinational can allow this until their corporate tax is scrutinized by Revenue. They will need to be able to evidence substance in Ireland to avail of the low corporate tax.

Working from home will remain just fine, so long add that home is in the state. So it's not going to impact a great number of people who live here.

ngunners

awec wrote: »

It was posted on here numerous times that remote working outside the state came with complications and tax implications and it was rubbished by the usual suspects keen to portray a view that Ireland's MNCs were going to become remote working hubs that employ hardly anyone here. The MNCs enjoy a low corporation tax rate in exchange for providing employment in the state.

I know of someone working in a large multi-national who has been allowed to move to permanent remote working in their home country. In order to this, the company will be paying the employee in a different currency. I don’t think many companies will allow this on a large scale but it’s at least a possibility for large companies.

Spring Celebrator

ngunners wrote: »

I know of someone working in a large multi-national who has been allowed to move to permanent remote working in their home country. In order to this, the company will be paying the employee in a different currency. I don’t think many companies will allow this on a large scale but it’s at least a possibility for large companies.

Yeah I have a friend who was offered the same deal. He won't hesitate to move to his home country with 50% cheaper houses with a higher standard.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

They will. At which point the employee can opt to pay tax in another jurisdiction.the multinational can allow this until their corporate tax is scrutinized by Revenue. They will need to be able to evidence substance in Ireland to avail of the low corporate tax.

You don’t really get how it works , revenue here are generally quite amenable it’s the tax authorities in other countries that tend to be the issue . Spain for example being one particularly aggressive jurisdiction, they will infer permanent establishment for the flimsiest reasons.

sanfranbest

This house was listed last year for 575k, it sold for 675K in Dec 2019, 100K over the asking price,
thats how crazy prices are in some parts of Dublin,,,,,,,,,,
I would guess it was a few Techie's bidding against each other,,,
I know its nice, but a 89 sqm, two bedroom, one bathroom terraced house for 675K,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Thats back to Celtic Tiger madness.
Maybe the Techie's who bought it can now work from home and would rather have a nice four bedroom house on the beach in Wexford for less than they paid for this tiny house,,,,,,

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/42-martin-street-portobello-dublin-8/4361567

Working from home will affect a lot of properties in Dublin,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Cyrus

sanfranbest wrote: »

This house was listed last year for 575k, it sold for 675K in Dec 2019, 100K over the asking price,
thats how crazy prices are in some parts of Dublin,,,,,,,,,,
I would guess it was a few Techie's bidding against each other,,,
I know its nice, but a 89 sqm, two bedroom, one bathroom terraced house for 675K,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Thats back to Celtic Tiger madness.
Maybe the Techie's who bought it can now work from home and would rather have a nice four bedroom house on the beach in Wexford for less than they paid for this tiny house,,,,,,

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/42-martin-street-portobello-dublin-8/4361567

Working from home will affect a lot of properties in Dublin,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

So everyone keeps saying

You understand what the corollary is I assume if this does come to pass ?

sanfranbest

Cyrus wrote: »

So everyone keeps saying

You understand what the corollary is I assume if this does come to pass ?

Yes the corollary will be??????????

If all the high earning Techie's move out of Dublin,,, who will support all the trendy cafes, restaurants and bars in the Camden quarter,,,,,
Portobello is currently Techie central, walking distance to Facebook etc.

Bass Reeves

Spring Celebrator wrote: »

Yeah I have a friend who was offered the same deal. He won't hesitate to move to his home country with 50% cheaper houses with a higher standard.

MN's will insist on a residential requirement in Ireland If WFH creates costs or risks for them. Those that assume that WFH will cause a collapse in Dublin house prices forget that WFH will be a 3-10 year process. It will have a bigger effect on commercial property rather than residential.

sanfranbest

Bass Reeves wrote: »

MN's will insist on a residential requirement in Ireland If WFH creates costs or risks for them. Those that assume that WFH will cause a collapse in Dublin house prices forget that WFH will be a 3-10 year process. It will have a bigger effect on commercial property rather than residential.

WFH will be a 3-10 process,,,,,,,,I disagree,,, Covid 19 is here and until a vaccine is found, WFH will be implemented immediately,
I agree that commercial property may take a bigger hit, but high end residential areas will be hit hard also.
It took fours years from 2008 for residential property prices to hit bottom,, so its all a big guess as to how the next few years will pan out.

Cyrus

sanfranbest wrote: »

Yes the corollary will be??????????

If all the high earning Techie's move out of Dublin,,, who will support all the trendy cafes, restaurants and bars in the Camden quarter,,,,,
Portobello is currently Techie central, walking distance to Facebook etc.

The prices in those houses by the beach in Wexford will become a lot more expensive than they are currently

Hubertj

sanfranbest wrote: »

This house was listed last year for 575k, it sold for 675K in Dec 2019, 100K over the asking price,
thats how crazy prices are in some parts of Dublin,,,,,,,,,,
I would guess it was a few Techie's bidding against each other,,,
I know its nice, but a 89 sqm, two bedroom, one bathroom terraced house for 675K,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Thats back to Celtic Tiger madness.
Maybe the Techie's who bought it can now work from home and would rather have a nice four bedroom house on the beach in Wexford for less than they paid for this tiny house,,,,,,

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/42-martin-street-portobello-dublin-8/4361567

Working from home will affect a lot of properties in Dublin,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Sorry I’m confused by this. You said it sold in dec 19? But the linK you provided says sales agreed. Are you saying it has been sold on again since dec 19?
Big money for a small house...

Bass Reeves

sanfranbest wrote: »

WFH will be a 3-10 process,,,,,,,,I disagree,,, Covid 19 is here and until a vaccine is found, WFH will be implemented immediately,
I agree that commercial property may take a bigger hit, but high end residential areas will be hit hard also.
It took fours years from 2008 for residential property prices to hit bottom,, so its all a big guess as to how the next few years will pan out.

Yes WFH may be implemented immediately but it will be 3-10 years before it begins to effect property prices. It effect may be a stabilizing rather than a collapse in prices.

A government decision to build 10k social and affordable houses in Dublin per year may have a bigger effect but that is 18-24 months before coming on line

hometruths

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Yes WFH may be implemented immediately but it will be 3-10 years before it begins to effect property prices. It effect may be a stabilizing rather than a collapse in prices.

A government decision to build 10k social and affordable houses in Dublin per year may have a bigger effect but that is 18-24 months before coming on line

Surely if meaningful numbers of WFH are implemented immediately then prices will be effected immediately? I don't get the cause of the 3-10 year lag?

Deub

Companies have lease contracts for the building they currently use. They have no incentive to add extra cost for the WFH setup and pay the rent. They are likely to do it by stages. If they have 5 years left on the lease they will start the transition before but they will not go full WFH now.

The way I see it, it should be a big win for MNCs. They will have lower rent costs but they will also pay less the employees. They will not pay the Dublin salary if you live in Waterford. Facebook already said it. It will mean less investments in Ireland from MNCs.

In addition, many have their HQ here for tax reasons and countries are going after this loophole. If MNCs are not saving money being in Ireland, they will move.

Bass Reeves

schmittel wrote: »

Surely if meaningful numbers of WFH are implemented immediately then prices will be effected immediately? I don't get the cause of the 3-10 year lag?

Just because people get the option to WFH it is unlikely that a large number of people will opt to change the location where they live. Yes so e who are renting may opt to move. However it is unlikely that the numbers who do will suddenly effect property prices. As well just because you get the option to WFH your partner/spouse may still be located in Dublin. As well if your skill/ career prospects are Dublin based ( financial services, tech based etc) it would not mean you suddenly up sticks and move to the stick.

Younger people are attracted to Dublin and the lifestyle it unlikely to change. As I posted as well technical difficulty for MN companies with WFH will have to be overcome as well

Bass Reeves

Deub wrote: »

Companies have lease contracts for the building they currently use. They have no incentive to add extra cost for the WFH setup and pay the rent. They are likely to do it by stages. If they have 5 years left on the lease they will start the transition before but they will not go full WFH now.

The way I see it, it should be a big win for MNCs. They will have lower rent costs but they will also pay less the employees. They will not pay the Dublin salary if you live in Waterford. Facebook already said it. It will mean less investments in Ireland from MNCs.

In addition, many have their HQ here for tax reasons and countries are going after this loophole. If MNCs are not saving money being in Ireland, they will move.

In other words for many be careful what you wish for

sanfranbest

Hubertj wrote: »

Sorry I’m confused by this. You said it sold in dec 19? But the linK you provided says sales agreed. Are you saying it has been sold on again since dec 19?
Big money for a small house...

No, it went sale agreed last year, but it takes forever to show up on the property price register,
here is the link

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-50C91CC43EE76D9B802584DB004CFA7A?OpenDocument

hometruths

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Just because people get the option to WFH it is unlikely that a large number of people will opt to change the location where they live. Yes so e who are renting may opt to move. However it is unlikely that the numbers who do will suddenly effect property prices. As well just because you get the option to WFH your partner/spouse may still be located in Dublin. As well if your skill/ career prospects are Dublin based ( financial services, tech based etc) it would not mean you suddenly up sticks and move to the stick.

Younger people are attracted to Dublin and the lifestyle it unlikely to change. As I posted as well technical difficulty for MN companies with WFH will have to be overcome as well

It will only take a small number of FTBers to look incrementally further afield to get more bang for their buck to effect demand and thus prices. If WFH is a widespread option this will happen fairly quickly.

Personally I think WFH is just one (fairly significant) part of a perfect storm of headwinds facing the market, all of which in combination could have a pretty meaningful effect.

The tipping point will be if airbnbs in RPZs are shut down. I am surprised our new Minister has not made noises about this yet. I am beginning to think maybe he won't.

yes there

Decided to move out of Dublin this weekend. Ploughing thousands down the drain paying rent since march and barely there. Was about to buy pre march but now obviously I'll get a greater bang for my buck 1 hr outside.

Regarding social life, I will still play football for my club an probably on average stay once a month there for nights out gigs shows etc. Still saving money plus saving taxis(when I can get one) while staying in hotel so some implicit benefits also. Also gilf club membership will be a grand cheaper. Probably cost me 30 quid diesel going to office once a fortnight. That Was the concerning part, the social aspect but thought long and hard this past few months and can't believe how stupid of a mistake I could have made. Hindsight and lucky timing i guess.

Was prepared to spend half a mill on a place, basic two two down cramped old house, needing renovations with a basic extension and long garden like 4 of my close friends and cousin have just done. Just to live in a nice area and still have limited privacy.

I think the prudent decision is to sit it out for awhile, pay cheaper rent then pull the plug on a home that's just right. A home actually worth half a mill. 1 hr or 1hr20mins outside is perfectly manageable from a social perspective for me. In fact i spend nearly half an hour driving from cabra to milltown/templelogue to see friends anyway, can't see what difference an extra 40 mins will make there.

I just hope we all have jobs in 6 months because if another wave hits were ****ed. Don't think we can stand another lockdown

seenn00J

I'd just like to add my 2c here, the reason people live in Dublin isn't just because they work there. Easier access to employment is a feature of most capital cities of the world alright, but I could list countless other reasons why it's a more favorable place to live than rural life in Longford or Westmeath. So WFH policies are not imo going to cause an exodus from Dublin and knock-on crash in property prices. Especially people who already have roots in the capital (family, friends, children's schools, etc).

yes there

seenn00J wrote: »

I'd just like to add my 2c here, the reason people live in Dublin isn't just because they work there. Easier access to employment is a feature of most capital cities of the world alright, but I could list countless other reasons why it's a more favorable place to live than rural life in Longford or Westmeath. So WFH policies are not imo going to cause an exodus from Dublin and knock-on crash in property prices. Especially people who already have roots in the capital (family, friends, children's schools, etc).

Fwiw, I would prefer to live in Dublin but I prefer value for money. I can live with having to spend an extra 30 mins travelling. Kilkenny, athlone for example are not exactly rural. Still commutable regualty for work and see friends. Bit your right the only roots I have there is friends and cousin. So it's easy for me. The majority I guess are from Dublin wicklow kildare which wouldn't move outside further as easily as i am prepared to do

JimmyVik

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Just because people get the option to WFH it is unlikely that a large number of people will opt to change the location where they live. Yes so e who are renting may opt to move. However it is unlikely that the numbers who do will suddenly effect property prices. As well just because you get the option to WFH your partner/spouse may still be located in Dublin. As well if your skill/ career prospects are Dublin based ( financial services, tech based etc) it would not mean you suddenly up sticks and move to the stick.

Younger people are attracted to Dublin and the lifestyle it unlikely to change. As I posted as well technical difficulty for MN companies with WFH will have to be overcome as well

Id move down the country if i could work from home 5 days a week.
I would only get 3 days per week max so not attractive to me.

The other half will not change the kids schools though. So moving down the country is out for now.
Then there is the whole psychology of moving to another town. I would be ok with it, but other half wouldnt. Therefore thats out for that reason too.


Lots of foreigners who come to work in my company would just go home if the job wasnt in dublin. They will only live in Dublin.

Villa05

cnocbui wrote:

Profit taking hardly works if you are living in the asset. If it's an investment property, you might want to line up an alternative investment with equal or greater returns. Taking into account the CGT, I think you might be struggling.

CGT does not apply to a private residence,
A falling market would benefit a person upsizing

awec wrote:

If someone can sell their house for 100k profit, why on earth would they sell it for less profit than that?.

That is not what I said, with the outlook for property negative in the short term and medium to long term increasingly uncertain. Would some investors consider it a good time to sell

Bass Reeves wrote:

Why would you profit take and pay 33% tax on any profit accrued. As there are costs involved, between solicitors and estate agents along with tax you could be looking at a 40% cost on a 100k profit.

Good points but remember one of the measures introduced to kick-start the market after the last collapse was CGT exemption if you held the property for 7 years or more. With close to 50% of all sales since 2009 not requiring a mortgage there must be alot of investors sitting on significant profits.

People forget that 1 of the lessons from the last crash was that today your worth millions tomorrow you could be worth
- millions

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

CGT does not apply to a private residence,
A falling market would benefit a person upsizing




That is not what I said, with the outlook for property negative in the short term and medium to long term increasingly uncertain. Would some investors consider it a good time to sell



Good points but remember one of the measures introduced to kick-start the market after the last collapse was CGT exemption if you held the property for 7 years or more. With close to 50% of all sales since 2009 not requiring a mortgage there must be alot of investors sitting on significant profits.

People forget that 1 of the lessons from the last crash was that today your worth millions tomorrow you could be worth
- millions

I know a fair few who want to sell now. But they cant.

hometruths

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know a fair few who want to sell now. But they cant.

Cannot sell because of tenants/personal circumstances/market conditions? What's the problem?

errlloyd

I find this thread has a lot of this.

Person A: People will no longer be willing to pay such a premium to live in the city if they don't have to go into the city every day for work.

Person B: But many people love living in the city for city life.

Both of these sentences are possibly true, but if person A is correct about that prediction it will have an impact on prices, even if person B is also correct. To put it another way, if one person can demonstrate that demand is going to drop *in any sector* it is sort of useless pointing out that demand will remain static in another sector, you have to demonstrate where there will be an increase to compensate.

These demand changes might be small, but their impact is leveraged. Why? Because supply and demand in property is non linear (or highly inelastic if you like). If demand is 101% of supply it seems like there is nothing on the market, everything is competed for. If demand drops 2% and is less than supply, it will suddenly feel like a buyers market.

JimmyVik

schmittel wrote: »

Cannot sell because of tenants/personal circumstances/market conditions? What's the problem?

Cannot get vacant possession to sell.

fliball123

errlloyd wrote: »

I find this thread has a lot of this.



Both of these sentences are possibly true, but if person A is correct about that prediction it will have an impact on prices, even if person B is also correct. To put it another way, if one person can demonstrate that demand is going to drop *in any sector* it is sort of useless pointing out that demand will remain static in another sector, you have to demonstrate where there will be an increase to compensate.

These demand changes might be small, but their impact is leveraged. Why? Because supply and demand in property is non linear (or highly inelastic if you like). If demand is 101% of supply it seems like there is nothing on the market, everything is competed for. If demand drops 2% and is less than supply, it will suddenly feel like a buyers market.

What you have left out is the properties of a property. As in you scenario of 80% of the property is not in a location that suits most people , then the demand will be low same goes if the house is in poor condition. At the moment it looks like supply is really poor