Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

CorkRed93 · 13-08-2020 10:34am

fliball123 wrote: »

I would of thought the original price was overly high for a 3 bed in Cork even the revised price may be a bit on the high side but I dont know the area of Blackrock in Cork so I could be wrong

yea definitely on the high side imo

lomb · 13-08-2020 10:38am

TheSheriff wrote: »

Had posted the below house about two weeks back, gone tonight for 6% over asking.

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/33-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-pp82 Asking 499k, gone for 531k

A house on the same road went last month for 525k (Asking was 490k)

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/10-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-da26

So not seeing any evidence of drops; albeit in a very small area!

Those are half a million shoeboxes, looks like one needs a million to get any kind of a house in that area. Is that sensible? Not to me anyway. Even to buy a 500 shoebox one would need an income of 150k. Thats a seriously well paid job or jobs. Those houses were approximately worth 50-60k in 1990 to give an idea.

fliball123 · 13-08-2020 10:48am

lomb wrote: »

Those are half a million shoeboxes, looks like one needs a million to get any kind of a house in that area. Is that sensible? Not to me anyway. Even to buy a 500 shoebox one would need an income of 150k. Thats a seriously well paid job or jobs. Those houses were approximately worth 50-60k in 1990 to give an idea.

Lots of other houses bigger and for less in other areas if people want to live somewhere and if there is competition for the house price goes up. We are not unique in this look at New York, London, Sydney, Paris, Berlin and other Captial cities around the globe

TheSheriff · 13-08-2020 10:53am

lomb wrote: »

Those are half a million shoeboxes, looks like one needs a million to get any kind of a house in that area. Is that sensible? Not to me anyway. Even to buy a 500 shoebox one would need an income of 150k. Thats a seriously well paid job or jobs. Those houses were approximately worth 50-60k in 1990 to give an idea.

Just because you think its not sensible does not make it so.

These houses are highly desirable to certain people; across the road from a train stop, quick access to the city center, walking distance to Phoenix park, good schools etc. These are things certain cohorts (ourselves included) want, and can afford. Hence the price.

I also wouldn't call either of them a shoe box. But again, thats all about perception; we want a house in the burbs, we don't want a MacMansion far outside the city.

Yes, there are plenty of 1 million plus houses in the area and again, they sell quick enough if in good condition; so obviously its sensible for some people and again, people can afford it.

It really doesn't matter what the house would cost in 1990; why not think back to 1960, the area was likely a field then, even cheaper! The market now is dictating 500k plus for these.

TheSheriff · 13-08-2020 10:56am

CorkRed93 wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-bed-detached-blackrock-villas-blackrock-cork/4313650

Decent drop in a desirable area in Cork

I know this area really well; the original price was seriously pushing it for a 3 bed in cork! Even the revised price may struggle. These are comparatively more expensive than some of the new builds we looked at the in Dublin area. The developer is reaching definitely; I wonder what uptake they got on any so far.

Edit; Looking at the price change history both an increase to 490k and a decrease to 450k occurred today, so possibly an error also? Or a tactic to get parties interested?

The Spider · 13-08-2020 11:09am

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

AIB have very little else to outsource at this stage.

Branches, staff will be cut from there, and customers pushed towards online, if a branch pre covid had 10 staff and now due to sofialbdistancing can only accommodate 6, 4 will have to go

fliball123 · 13-08-2020 11:11am

TheSheriff wrote: »

I know this area really well; the original price was seriously pushing it for a 3 bed in cork! Even the revised price may struggle. These are comparatively more expensive than some of the new builds we looked at the in Dublin area. The developer is reaching definitely; I wonder what uptake they got on any so far.

Edit; Looking at the price change history both an increase to 490k and a decrease to 450k occurred today, so possibly an error also? Or a tactic to get parties interested?

Must not be selling if a 40k drop has just been put on them

Wanderer78 · 13-08-2020 11:15am

The Spider wrote:

Branches, staff will be cut from there, and customers pushed towards online, if a branch pre covid had 10 staff and now due to sofialbdistancing can only accommodate 6, 4 will have to go

Oh I'm expecting major changes in the financial sector soon, some believe we could move towards a more central bank centred system, whereby all citizens will have direct access to, and the crypto world is also looking interesting

CorkRed93 · 13-08-2020 12:07pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Edit; Looking at the price change history both an increase to 490k and a decrease to 450k occurred today, so possibly an error also? Or a tactic to get parties interested?

Think its the latter myself. Obviously paying a lot for saying you live in Blackrock but as you say pushing it at those prices. Same story in the model farm road with new builds and prices there in comparison to 1km down the road in Ballincollig for the same size new build. Interesting to see is it just this development this happens with as from what I've heard places selling like hotcakes in Ballincollig.

Nijmegen · 13-08-2020 12:12pm

There's probably a different thread for the desirability or otherwise of particular houses in particular places. Vis a vis the property market itself and the prices it will support, I'm still eagerly awaiting seeing any materialisation of the scenario the doom mongers on here a few months ago were gleefully extolling, telling people not to bother buying for another two to three years. I hope some poor couples didn't listen and pull out, only to see retail sales data back to pre-pandemic levels, income taxes in total down -2.5% year to date and property prices still not budging majorly except for perhaps tactical moves in specific areas. Builders back merrily putting up new construction and selling units fast without touching their prices.

PropQueries · 13-08-2020 12:31pm

Article in Irish Times today about how we now need to build 47,000 houses a year. It also states that it now costs €460,000 to build a two-bed apartment in Dublin. It's the €460,000 cost that makes me suspicious of the rest of the conclusions in the report.

The Irish Times article is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/47-000-homes-need-to-be-built-each-year-to-solve-housing-crisis-report-says-1.4329432

Two-Bed New Built A-Rated Apartment in Castleknock advertised at €410,000: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/?s%5Bmnb%5D=2&s%5Bmxb%5D=2&s%5Badvanced%5D=1&s%5Bnew%5D=1&searchSource=sale

Two-Bed New Built A-Rated Apartments in Lucan advertised at €295,000: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/lucan/2-bedroom-apartment-shackleton-park-lucan-dublin-2453619/

Cantstandsya · 13-08-2020 12:34pm

There's a bit of the George Bush "Mission Accomplished" about people coming on here to proclaim that because prices haven't gone down yet they never will.

Perhaps they won't but we are not through this yet, the government still has the economy on life support and Varadckar was out saying this could last another two years.

fliball123 · 13-08-2020 12:40pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

There's a bit of the George Bush "Mission Accomplished" about people coming on here to proclaim that because prices haven't gone down yet they never will.

Perhaps they won't but we are not through this yet, the government still has the economy on life support and Varadckar was out saying this could last another two years.

I think everyone is in agreement they could drop but people have been saying they have dropped without any evidence and now we have evidence to the contrary that prices have remained steady. I would say if you asked the majority would say they will drop over the next year but by a very small margin as in 2 to 5%

Bass Reeves · 13-08-2020 12:43pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

the doom mongers on here a few months ago were gleefully extolling, telling people not to bother buying for another two to three years. I hope some poor couples didn't listen and pull out, only to see retail sales data back to pre-pandemic levels, income taxes in total down -2.5% year to date and property prices still not budging majorly except for perhaps tactical moves in specific areas. Builders back merrily putting up new construction and selling units fast without touching their prices.

I think this was the disappointing but about some posters. There attitude that taking a chance on a price drop trumped all other options.

They did not want to consider any other factors such as rentals coats and lifestyle/quality questions. The question any buyers has to ask themselves is will the chance of a drop in prices be enough to cover the costs and risks involved in not buying while I am able to.

There was lads encouraging buyers to renegade or drop there prices at contract stage without factoring in the costs involved and without factoring in the attitude the seller would take and that he would have options of approaching underbidders. Lads advising people to sell and rent for 2-3 year, if moving house. Lads on about investors profit taking

Some of the advice was very poor and lacked any understanding of risk involved. But then most seemed to come from lads that misread the last downturn and fails to buy fast enough as prices rose.

Cyrus · 13-08-2020 12:48pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

There's a bit of the George Bush "Mission Accomplished" about people coming on here to proclaim that because prices haven't gone down yet they never will.

Perhaps they won't but we are not through this yet, the government still has the economy on life support and Varadckar was out saying this could last another two years.

Not at all

More a response to being shouted down by the property bears who were using rubbish anecdotal ‘evidence ‘ to ignore reality.

The amount of economic experts the last recession created is frightening

Pelezico · 13-08-2020 12:49pm

We haven't even got halfway through the downturn yet guys.

I see house prices have reduced to 2017 levels

The autumn will bring a lot of pain.

PropQueries · 13-08-2020 12:50pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think this was the disappointing but about some posters. There attitude that taking a chance on a price drop trumped all other options.

They did not want to consider any other factors such as rentals coats and lifestyle/quality questions. The question any buyers has to ask themselves is will the chance of a drop in prices be enough to cover the costs and risks involved in not buying while I am able to.

There was lads encouraging buyers to renegade or drop there prices at contract stage without factoring in the costs involved and without factoring in the attitude the seller would take and that he would have options of approaching underbidders. Lads advising people to sell and rent for 2-3 year, if moving house. Lads on about investors profit taking

Some of the advice was very poor and lacked any understanding of risk involved. But then most seemed to come from lads that misread the last downturn and fails to buy fast enough as prices rose.

I don't the lads misread the last downturn. They got the economics right. What they didn't factor in was that the Government would bring in policies to encourage the vulture funds to come in and buy tens of thousands of houses off the banks and NAMA.

I don't think the vulture funds will a factor this time as all the easy, bulk buying of properties has been completed and there's not much left for them to buy in significant bulk or at such low prices to make it worth their while to return.

MacronvFrugals · 13-08-2020 12:58pm

I dont see house prices dropping 30-40% but also to see people state because no real drops have been seen thus far means the market is holding firm is premature.

TheSheriff · 13-08-2020 1:05pm

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I dont see house prices dropping 30-40% but also to see people state because no real drops have been seen thus far means the market is holding firm is premature.

Just for context; while I do expect some modest price drops, I have been coming to this forum for 2 years, and for 2 years the advice has been that price drops are coming. Before Covid it was Brexit.

At some point people will be correct.

BEdS_83 · 13-08-2020 1:06pm

I know it's not from here, but it might be aligned to what some people said here already..
https://www.ft.com/content/c34c6c76-852a-4b14-a1e7-127c5857e32d?fbclid=IwAR2KiQeZmRAbm_tlcE4H364MoMnxrWCKCuYSWGURZ7_KuRghU7inlTCa76U

"Fall in UK house prices will not help first-time buyers, think-tank predicts

Resolution Foundation says tighter credit conditions and falling incomes will hamper efforts to get on to property ladder"

“Unfortunately there’s no silver lining for [young people] when it comes to house prices,” said Lindsay Judge, principal research and policy analyst at the Resolution Foundation.

“Although prices are projected to fall — perhaps dramatically — in the wake of the pandemic-induced recession . . . falling incomes and credit restrictions will likely make home ownership every bit as difficult as before for many young people,” she added.

Bass Reeves · 13-08-2020 1:23pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't the lads misread the last downturn. They got the economics right. What they didn't factor in was that the Government would bring in policies to encourage the vulture funds to come in and buy tens of thousands of houses off the banks and NAMA.

I don't think the vulture funds will a factor this time as all the easy, bulk buying of properties has been completed and there's not much left for them to buy in significant bulk or at such low prices to make it worth their while to return.

Vulture funds are another name for hedge funds or venture capitalists. I general these people invested in banks and bought non preforming loans at a discount and bought development land off NAMA and commercial property. Not all the property or loans were just on this state alone. In general they did not buy houses REIT'S started to buy some as the rental market recovered.

Reit's were going to be the big game changer in the rental market we were all told 6-8years ago. They reduce rental costs to the great unwashed. Everybody would have housing for nothing. As I explained back then there cost base is too high. However they are here now and are leaverged so that they can work the apartment building side of development.

Si the economics were always there just the lads that are misreading this downturn misread the last up turn.

ShedTower · 13-08-2020 1:26pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Sales prices showing no sign of decline as latest report below

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

The further drop in sales in July might be significant. Or would this have been expected to this extent as we get further from pre-lockdown activities?

If the ratio of sales to available stock is decreasing then prices will only go down I would have thought.

Hubertj · 13-08-2020 1:36pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Just for context; while I do expect some modest price drops, I have been coming to this forum for 2 years, and for 2 years the advice has been that price drops are coming. Before Covid it was Brexit.

At some point people will be correct.

Just like Liverpool fans... they were saying every season for 30 years they would win the league. Eventually they did.

PropQueries · 13-08-2020 1:37pm

If there were 40,000 people over the age of 80 in Dublin in the last Census, would that mean there's homes for 40,000 younger people about to enter the market (to rent or buy) in the very near future? Just not sure why there's never any commentary in the media about this fact as it does seem like a lot of potential supply coming down the tracks that nobody seems to factor in.

PropQueries · 13-08-2020 1:38pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Vulture funds are another name for hedge funds or venture capitalists. I general these people invested in banks and bought non preforming loans at a discount and bought development land off NAMA and commercial property. Not all the property or loans were just on this state alone. In general they did not buy houses REIT'S started to buy some as the rental market recovered.

Reit's were going to be the big game changer in the rental market we were all told 6-8years ago. They reduce rental costs to the great unwashed. Everybody would have housing for nothing. As I explained back then there cost base is too high. However they are here now and are leaverged so that they can work the apartment building side of development.

Si the economics were always there just the lads that are misreading this downturn misread the last up turn.

Good point.

fliball123 · 13-08-2020 1:40pm

ShedTower wrote: »

The further drop in sales in July might be significant. Or would this have been expected to this extent as we get further from pre-lockdown activities?

If the ratio of sales to available stock is decreasing then prices will only go down I would have thought.

The available stock is falling day by day it has further decreased by 50 properties today. This will keep the prices high . I have been saying it for months that the stock of properties is dwindling and if it kept going we wont see any reduction in prices

Beigepaint · 13-08-2020 1:45pm

PropQueries wrote: »

If there were 40,000 people over the age of 80 in Dublin in the last Census, would that mean there's homes for 40,000 younger people about to enter the market (to rent or buy) in the very near future? Just not sure why there's never any commentary in the media about this fact as it does seem like a lot of potential supply coming down the tracks that nobody seems to factor in.

Further to this, I wonder if our elderly friends reaching their age limit will change the housing make up in the city.

Has anyone ever counted the number of bungalows in the city centre?

We must have the highest number of bungalows in a capital city in Europe.

tigger123 · 13-08-2020 1:54pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Article in Irish Times today about how we now need to build 47,000 houses a year. It also states that it now costs €460,000 to build a two-bed apartment in Dublin. It's the €460,000 cost that makes me suspicious of the rest of the conclusions in the report.

The Irish Times article is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/47-000-homes-need-to-be-built-each-year-to-solve-housing-crisis-report-says-1.4329432

Two-Bed New Built A-Rated Apartment in Castleknock advertised at €410,000: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/?s%5Bmnb%5D=2&s%5Bmxb%5D=2&s%5Badvanced%5D=1&s%5Bnew%5D=1&searchSource=sale

Two-Bed New Built A-Rated Apartments in Lucan advertised at €295,000: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/lucan/2-bedroom-apartment-shackleton-park-lucan-dublin-2453619/

The article says it can cost up to 460k, not that it does, or will cost 460k.

It makes sense when you think about it; the price of the land built upon will have a significant effect on the cost of the property.

PropQueries · 13-08-2020 2:06pm

tigger123 wrote: »

The article says it can cost up to 460k, not that it does, or will cost 460k.

It makes sense when you think about it; the price of the land built upon will have a significant effect on the cost of the property.

Very good point. But it does give the bigger players e.g. Cairn Homes etc., a great cost advantage over the newer entrants in the next year or two. If e.g. Cairn Homes wants to encourage more sales, they can reduce their prices more easily than some of the developers who bought sites in the last 2 years, as the Cairn Homes of the building world would have bought most of their landbank at a much lower price before site values started increasing.

Reversal · 13-08-2020 2:17pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Just for context; while I do expect some modest price drops, I have been coming to this forum for 2 years, and for 2 years the advice has been that price drops are coming. Before Covid it was Brexit.

At some point people will be correct.

Ehh.. but house prices ARE lower now than they were two years ago.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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