Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

They do matter if the WFH phenomenon is actually real and the Government carries through on it's intention to connect up every existing house in Ireland to super-fast broadband.

Working from home will not instantly sort out essential infrastructure such as Fast broadband or decent Roads, Public Transport, Schools, Hospitals/GPs, Creche, Shops, Restaurants, Pubs , ye know things that make a place livable/bearable.

Your reaching now I think anyone looking at your argument of 90k unoccupied houses some of which were mislabeled and are occupied, some of which the work was not done properly due to the monotonous nature of knocking on doors and with this bringing that 90k right down the majority of the unoccupied are in areas that the majority of people simply dont want to live there otherwise we would not have a housing list of nearly 70K people waiting to be housed

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30969860.html

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Working from home will not instantly sort out essential infrastructure such as Fast broadband or decent Roads, Public Transport, Schools, Hospitals/GPs, Creche, Shops, Restaurants, Pubs , ye know things that make a place livable/bearable.

Your reaching now I think anyone looking at your argument of 90k unoccupied houses some of which were mislabeled and are occupied, some of which the work was not done properly due to the monotonous nature of knocking on doors and with this bringing that 90k right down the majority of the unoccupied are in areas that the majority of people simply dont want to live there otherwise we would not have a housing list of nearly 70K people waiting to be housed

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30969860.html

Those 70k people waiting to be housed can all be housed by the 148k people over the age of 80 in Ireland whose homes will very soon become available to them.

Nijmegen

Cantstandsya wrote: »

There's a bit of the George Bush "Mission Accomplished" about people coming on here to proclaim that because prices haven't gone down yet they never will.

Perhaps they won't but we are not through this yet, the government still has the economy on life support and Varadckar was out saying this could last another two years.

If you predict either a rise or a fall in house prices every day, you'll eventually be right. A few months back in Part 1 of this thread we were being told about 30-40%+ price drops by year end or end of next year. Meanwhile I'm still looking at new builds that are over subscribed at firm pre-covid pricing (if not going up still) because demand far outstrips supply and even if covid kills some demand, that will not equalise the supply and demand imbalance.

I just feel sorry for anyone who decided to pull out of a process listening to that sort of nonsense, because the cost of a mortgage is typically less than the cost of renting on a monthly basis; or else they're still cooped up with mammy and daddy waiting on that big big drop.

Pelezico wrote: »

We haven't even got halfway through the downturn yet guys.

I see house prices have reduced to 2017 levels


The autumn will bring a lot of pain.

So, all of the data is currently telling us: (a) Retail sales in the economy have returned to pre-pandemic levels. (b) Income taxes are down -2.5% YTD, total. (c) We can still see major new supply being built and over subscribed.

The 2008 recession was fundamentally about too much credit driven supply. The 2020 recession is about closing the economy for a pandemic and then re-opening it, and while there will be damage it's in the context of supply far below demand. Fundamentally and totally a different situation.

TheSheriff wrote: »

Just for context; while I do expect some modest price drops, I have been coming to this forum for 2 years, and for 2 years the advice has been that price drops are coming. Before Covid it was Brexit.

At some point people will be correct.

Amen

PropQueries wrote: »

If there were 40,000 people over the age of 80 in Dublin in the last Census, would that mean there's homes for 40,000 younger people about to enter the market (to rent or buy) in the very near future? Just not sure why there's never any commentary in the media about this fact as it does seem like a lot of potential supply coming down the tracks that nobody seems to factor in.

One systemic issue with the housing stock of older residents becoming available is the Fair Deal. There's quite a few thousand homes sitting idle in Ireland because selling the home or renting it out while the owner is still alive will see the state absolutely rinse the deal, versus waiting for the person to pass when the take of the state is capped at a far lower rate. So there are homes sitting idle effectively waiting for probate to, well, occur. But touching the fair deal is a political hot potato.

PropQueries wrote: »

Great graph. So, it looks like we're following the same path as last time. 2 years of slowly falling prices followed by a massive plummet once both buyers and sellers fully understand what's going on. With no international investment funds to soak up all the unsold properties this time around, we may be in for a decade or so of continuously falling prices.

Once the buyers and sellers understand what? That demand in the economy has swung back to where it was pre-covid already and the number of people sitting waiting to form a household hasn't really materially changed?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Those 70k people waiting to be housed can all be housed by the 148k people over the age of 80 in Ireland whose homes will very soon become available to them.

Last I checked we have had more births than deaths in this country year on year over the last decade or 2 so while there are 70k now there may well be 100k in a year or 2, also year on year average life expectancy has been going up well that was until Covid at least. Also its not only people in the over 80s demographic that is growing..Those under 80s are also growing and they all need a place to live

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Are you for real there is report after report stating that we need a sh1t load more housing, Were you not here for the recent elections I seen nearly every party have some kind of spiel about more housing, not one said its ok we have enough? We have a housing list which is very very high in the country, where are you getting this analysis from that we don't need more houses?

Just from a quick google search first page. i could go to the second and third page but every report is stating we need more housing not one link or report says we have sufficient or too much housing. If you can provide some evidence of what your saying and before you show me the report of unoccupied houses the argument of the validity of this report has been done to death , the analysis was flawed and proven to have a lot of houses down as unoccupied that were being lived in.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-many-houses-do-we-really-need-1.3515359

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/ireland-needs-60000-houses-built-16388836


https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1210/1098192-central-bank-housing-demand/

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/can-ireland-step-back-from-housing-cliff-edge-38936889.html

https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/research/spotlight-research/why-fixing-irelands-housing-crisis-requires-change-policy

I'm consistently amazed that people simultaneously take research from the likes of Savills and "Property developers GPD" as gospel and refuse to believe the census.

Utter madness.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I'm consistently amazed that people simultaneously take research from the likes of Savills and "Property developers GPD" as gospel and refuse to believe the census.

Utter madness.

So you agree with the other poster who suggests we dont need more housing? Maybe all the parties during the last election put their differences aside and got together and decided to help the poor developers out and pretend we need more housing even the likes of People before profit and the likes

An Ri rua

MrMusician18 wrote: »

To be fair, if the price drops do not manifest themselves in the next 4 to 6 months the property bulls will have called this correctly and i, like many others on the forum will have to eat their humble pie. Although the housing market has incredible amounts of inertia, at this point, I would've expected it to be showing signs of turning. Volume is way way down though which is likely playing into price support.

That said I just cannot see how prices can remain supported at the level they are at given the damage to the economy. The buyer pool has to be shrinking rather rapidly currently as credit becomes withdrawn, jobs are lost and the economy enters recession.

Since volume of completed sales is way down are we looking at sellers simply refusing to countenance a price below expectation? I guess we shall see if the no of available properties starts to rise that this is the reason (no evidence of this yet tbf). If that is the case then the falls will eventually come.

It's no different to deaths and cases. The current buying is a trailing metric. Plenty of approved buyers desperate to seal deals.
Give it til January and we'll see what's what.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I'm consistently amazed that people simultaneously take research from the likes of Savills and "Property developers GPD" as gospel and refuse to believe the census.

Utter madness.

I’m amazed people take 2 data points 5 years apart with no additional data or statistical analysis to support and draw a conclusion that there isn’t a shortage of accommodation.

Utter utter madness.

fliball123

Hubertj wrote: »

I’m amazed people take 2 data points 5 years apart with no additional data or statistical analysis to support and draw a conclusion that there isn’t a shortage of accommodation.

Utter utter madness.

Its a conspiracy they are all in on it, its ok lads we don't need more housing and there is no housing list nothing to see here I mean regardless of what was on the census why would every party in the last election from FF to Sinn Fein from PBP to independents all have a spiel about how they were going to build more houses to sort the "housing crisis" the phrase was not shortage of housing or not enough housing but an actual "housing crisis" or are they all just in the developers pockets?

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

So you agree with the other poster who suggests we dont need more housing? Maybe all the parties during the last election put their differences aside and got together and decided to help the poor developers out and pretend we need more housing even the likes of People before profit and the likes

I certainly don’t think we need 90,000 units a year as recommended by one of the reports you linked.

I think the housing shortage is grossly exaggerated and if we start building 90,000 a year based on misguided public opinion we’ll be looking at a massive oversupply issue very quickly.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I certainly don’t think we need 90,000 units a year as recommended by one of the reports you linked.

I think the housing shortage is grossly exaggerated and if we start building 90,000 a year based on misguided public opinion we’ll be looking at a massive oversupply issue very quickly.

We certainly won’t be building anything like that if prices don’t support it

Chicken and egg

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I’m amazed people take 2 data points 5 years apart with no additional data or statistical analysis to support and draw a conclusion that there isn’t a shortage of accommodation.

Utter utter madness.

Let’s not start that nonsense again.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Very good point. But it does give the bigger players e.g. Cairn Homes etc., a great cost advantage over the newer entrants in the next year or two. If e.g. Cairn Homes wants to encourage more sales, they can reduce their prices more easily than some of the developers who bought sites in the last 2 years, as the Cairn Homes of the building world would have bought most of their landbank at a much lower price before site values started increasing.

They also used all the money raised in their flotation to buy more expensive land, the price paid for the RTÉ site was mental .

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

We haven't even got halfway through the downturn yet guys.

I see house prices have reduced to 2017 levels


The autumn will bring a lot of pain.

Prices had been stagnating in Dublin for the past 2 years this is old news , your constant insistence of big decreases right now has been proven wrong as have the data points you have used to support it .

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

We certainly won’t be building anything like that if prices don’t support it

Chicken and egg

Surely if the demand is there prices will support it?

And we’re told the demand is there. According to GPD Property Developers at least.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I certainly don’t think we need 90,000 units a year as recommended by one of the reports you linked.

I think the housing shortage is grossly exaggerated and if we start building 90,000 a year based on misguided public opinion we’ll be looking at a massive oversupply issue very quickly.

I put up 5 links all showing different figures of housing (of course you would pick the one that had the highest value) that was needed to be honest I don't know what we need but anyone on here saying we don't need to build more housing will need to explain the last election to me and why every single party put a section related on how they are going to deal with the housing shortage/housing crisis in this country in their manifesto otherwise it is nothing short of lying to say we do not need more housing.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

I put up 5 links all showing different figures of housing (of course you would pick the one that had the highest value) that was needed to be honest I don't know what we need but anyone on here saying we don't need to build more housing will need to explain the last election to me and why every single party put a section related on how they are going to deal with the housing shortage/housing crisis in this country in their manifesto otherwise it is nothing short of lying to say we do not need more housing.

Ok I don’t believe we need 35000 a year either, as suggested by the bloke from Savills.

I accept the current housing crisis needs to be dealt with urgently and it makes perfect sense that every party would campaign on this issue.

I just don’t agree that the solution is scaling up building to the tune of 35,000+ a year for the next decade.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Ok I don’t believe we need 35000 a year either, as suggested by the bloke from Savills.

I accept the current housing crisis needs to be dealt with urgently and it makes perfect sense that every party would campaign on this issue.

I just don’t agree that the solution is scaling up building to the tune of 35,000+ a year for the next decade.

Ok well thats a start so we are in agreement we are currently at a deficit for housing, if you look at myhome the amount of houses for sale is at a very low level and getting lower day by day it has dropped by over 3.5k since covid became an issue or about 15% down than 5/6 months ago, if that trend continues there is not a hope in hell we will see a drop in prices. It made perfect sense for every party to campaign for it as that is what they are all hearing from the constituents and because there is an actual problem with lack of housing

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Ok well thats a start so we are in agreement we are currently at a deficit for housing, if you look at myhome the amount of houses for sale is at a very low level and getting lower day by day it has dropped by over 3.5k since covid became an issue or about 15% down than 5/6 months ago, if that trend continues there is not a hope in hell we will see a drop in prices. It made perfect sense for every party to campaign for it as that is what they are all hearing from the constituents and because there is an actual problem with lack of housing

Yes we are currently at a deficit. But I think that is largely down to existing stock being badly allocated. If that problem is not tackled and the solution is simply to build more, when the inefficient allocation of stock washes through there will be a huge oversupply.

Wanderer78

schmittel wrote:

Yes we are currently at a deficit. But I think that is largely down to existing stock being badly allocated. If that problem is not tackled and the solution is simply to build more, when the inefficient allocation of stock washes through there will be a huge oversupply.

The market has had a huge under supply for over a decade now, we haven't figured out how to stop the aging process and people are still having kids, keep building folks

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Yes we are currently at a deficit. But I think that is largely down to existing stock being badly allocated. If that problem is not tackled and the solution is simply to build more, when the inefficient allocation of stock washes through there will be a huge oversupply.

The solution is and always has been to build in the more desirable, more populated and the centers that have the most jobs and best infrastructure and work outward from these. So Dublin, Cork, Galway, Limerick, Waterford should of had a shed load of high rises erected in and around their city centers and in all developments in the burbs and not just the 3/4 beds that we see..But that didnt happen. I mean something must be wrong with the supply line as we are now 6 months in and prices have not dropped I appreciate that property lags behind but if there was a drop coming I thought it would of been kicking in by now

fliball123

Just as a matter of interest has anyone been keeping tabs on property prices in other countries?

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The market has had a huge under supply for over a decade now, we haven't figured out how to stop the aging process and people are still having kids, keep building folks

Actually we have figured that out both the aging process and the number of people having kids. Both figures from 2019.

Life expectancy in Ireland levelling off: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/life-expectancy-levelling-off-especially-for-irish-women-1.3810387?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Flife-expectancy-levelling-off-especially-for-irish-women-1.3810387

Ireland’s birth rate down 25% compared to Celtic Tiger period: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-s-birth-rate-down-25-compared-to-celtic-tiger-period-1.4055232

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Actually we have figured that out both the aging process and the number of people having kids. Both figures from 2019.

Life expectancy in Ireland levelling off: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/life-expectancy-levelling-off-especially-for-irish-women-1.3810387?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Flife-expectancy-levelling-off-especially-for-irish-women-1.3810387

Ireland’s birth rate down 25% compared to Celtic Tiger period: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-s-birth-rate-down-25-compared-to-celtic-tiger-period-1.4055232

yet we still have one of the highest birth rates in Europe I think Third also all of thoes tiger kiddies will need somewhere to live in the future.

Mic 1972

ShedTower wrote: »

The further drop in sales in July might be significant. Or would this have been expected to this extent as we get further from pre-lockdown activities?

If the ratio of sales to available stock is decreasing then prices will only go down I would have thought.

the sales volumes dropped during Covid for obvious reasons, they are picking up again. But interestingly prices didn't show any sign of decline during one of the most uncertain times of our economic history.
People are still investing in property regardless of any possible incoming recession. People have cash, not everyone depends on a loan

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote:

The solution is and always has been to build in the more desirable, more populated and the centers that have the most jobs and best infrastructure and work outward from these. So Dublin, Cork, Galway, Limerick, Waterford should of had a shed load of high rises erected in and around their city centers and in all developments in the burbs and not just the 3/4 beds that we see..But that didnt happen. I mean something must be wrong with the supply line as we are now 6 months in and prices have not dropped I appreciate that property lags behind but if there was a drop coming I thought it would of been kicking in by now

All our major cities mentioned require apartments, probably more so than houses. Assume credit is still available to those that can afford it, helping to maintain prices

Wanderer78

PropQueries wrote:

Actually we have figured that out both the aging process and the number of people having kids. Both figures from 2019.

But we haven't been able to stop people aging, hence the under supply, can't see 1 year old kids needing their own place at the moment

Pelezico

An Ri rua wrote: »

It's no different to deaths and cases. The current buying is a trailing metric. Plenty of approved buyers desperate to seal deals.
Give it til January and we'll see what's what.

Good point. These buyers who want to secure a house before approval lapses are walking into a lions den.

Also, banks will not be lending in a few months as their tier1 capital requirements will force their hand.

Bad times ahead.

Wanderer78

Pelezico wrote:

Also, banks will not be lending in a few months as their tier1 capital requirements will force their hand.

Yea I'm deeply worried about this, and adding Italys troubles into the mix, this could all get a little hairy quickly

TheSheriff

Pelezico wrote: »

Good point. These buyers who want to secure a house before approval lapses are walking into a lions den.

Also, banks will not be lending in a few months as their tier1 capital requirements will force their hand.

Bad times ahead.

Plenty of my cohort of friends have gotten approval for the first time since Covid started.

They were all renting; they have now realized they want a house for more space and are looking at the Dublin region.

I do find the whole idea that there is a cohort of people absolutely desperate to use their mortgage approval before it runs out a bit misleading. We have no evidence of this. Its all just talk, but anecdotally (as we are talking), I now have more friends looking to buy in Dublin than pre-Covid, primarily because they envisage another lockdown and want space.

These arguments are somewhat circular. The only real data will be the property register.