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Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    gefs showing breakdown on 21/22

    Hey Wolfe

    Im right in thinking that out that far the models usually push breakdowns further out ? Im sure I heard that before !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 763 ✭✭✭alfa beta


    GavinH wrote: »
    Ye thought in was seeing things. I know there was one ECM model that went wayward yesterday, but tis mornings one all line up again.

    I've got a feeling that last line of the ME outlook won't be hanging around for long - their specific reference to southerly winds at the end of next week seems odd to say the least.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Hey Wolfe

    Im right in thinking that out that far the models usually push breakdowns further out ? Im sure I heard that before !
    yes tntn, and they can easily push cold spells further out. However, they have budged little on a cold spell taking place from late next week


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    yes tntn, and they can easily push cold spells further out. However, they have budged little on a cold spell taking place from late next week

    Thanks a mill, I think I'm starting to understand those charts thanks to people like yourself ! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 197 ✭✭snowjon


    alfa beta wrote: »
    I've got a feeling that last line of the ME outlook won't be hanging around for long - their specific reference to southerly winds at the end of next week seems odd to say the least.
    It's weird because it was released at 09.30, according to the website, which means they had access to all the 00z runs which unanimously show a cold northerly plunge for the exact time they predict southerly winds and higher temps :confused:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Hi Maq, that would give easterly winds right ?

    Can never work out what direction the wind goes !

    Northwesterly winds there. Wind blows anticlockwise around areas of low pressure.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    So for next friday what sort of day and night tempertures are we talking going by those charts?


  • Registered Users Posts: 197 ✭✭snowjon


    snowjon wrote: »
    It's weird because it was released at 09.30, according to the website, which means they had access to all the 00z runs which unanimously show a cold northerly plunge for the exact time they predict southerly winds and higher temps :confused:

    In case anyone hasn't seen the Met Eireann forecast, this is what they predict we can expect next week:
    After midweek there are signs that the winds will turn southerly in direction and this will end the severe night frosts and bring higher daytime temperatures.
    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

    :confused::confused::confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 28 Mac_


    snowjon wrote: »
    It's weird because it was released at 09.30, according to the website, which means they had access to all the 00z runs which unanimously show a cold northerly plunge for the exact time they predict southerly winds and higher temps :confused:
    I'm also totally lost at the Met E reference to southerly winds. Looking at the 06z GFS I've never seen such bone chilling, possibly record breaking potential.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,324 ✭✭✭highdef


    I have just emailed Met Eireann querying their forecast. It will be interesting to see the reply


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  • Registered Users Posts: 28 Mac_


    Pangea wrote: »
    So for next friday what sort of day and night tempertures are we talking going by those charts?
    Midday:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 763 ✭✭✭alfa beta


    Mac_ wrote: »
    I'm also totally lost at the Met E reference to southerly winds. Looking at the 06z GFS I've never seen such bone chilling, possibly record breaking potential.

    It'll be an interesting one to keep an eye on - if they've called it right against all the odds (and all the charts) I'll be seriously impressed - not to mention more than a little disappointed!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,963 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    snow ghost wrote: »
    I think you'll find that the Brian Lenihan and Mother Nature have little in common confab. :rolleyes:

    As for enthusiasm for cold weather, here's one very good reason:

    'THE NUMBER OF DEATHS DUE TO COLD WEATHER FELL LAST YEAR'

    http://www.manchesterwired.co.uk/news.php/110215-The-number-of-deaths-due-to-cold-weather-fell-last-year

    And here's another:

    snow_babes2ae0.jpg

    You won't get that in the rain. ;)

    Wisdom^^

    as great as it was to read M.T'S post, i fear it won't be as exciting as all that. Nothing would give me greater pleasure if i am wrong, though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28 Mac_


    alfa beta wrote: »
    It'll be an interesting one to keep an eye on - if they've called it right against all the odds (and all the charts) I'll be seriously impressed - not to mention more than a little disappointed!
    Yep - huge credit if they get this one right - I just can't see anything southerly by next friday. Models keep pushing the cold further and further west.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28 Mac_


    Nice boots!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,963 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    snowjon wrote: »
    In case anyone hasn't seen the Met Eireann forecast, this is what they predict we can expect next week:


    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

    :confused::confused::confused:

    i haven't checked the charts, but maybe they forsee that happening for a day or so around midweek? it maybe they are reluctant to deliver what they, and most people will perceive as bad news, until they really have to. remember they got caught out last year towards the end of the big freeze, which led to people panic buying, only for the east to just have rain and sleet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Brenireland


    Nothing to worry about here now that the Thaw has set in @ this stage,we can safely say the harshest period of our winter weather has passed.:cool:

    Seems I might be right :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Spindle


    snowjon wrote: »
    In case anyone hasn't seen the Met Eireann forecast, this is what they predict we can expect next week:


    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

    :confused::confused::confused:


    There latest outlook has changed to:

    The continuing presence of an anticyclone close to Ireland will ensure dry weather for the first half of next week at least. But the nights on Monday and Tuesday will be particularly cold again with temperatures dropping down to -5 and -6 degrees in parts of the country. And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28 Mac_


    i haven't checked the charts, but maybe they forsee that happening for a day or so around midweek? it maybe they are reluctant to deliver what they, and most people will perceive as bad news, until they really have to. remember they got caught out last year towards the end of the big freeze, which led to people panic buying, only for the east to just have rain and sleet.
    Yes I understand them being cautious but you really should have a look at the latest GFS charts. Coldest I've ever seen.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 383 ✭✭piskins72


    it seems to have been changed and that line taken out of it now :confused:

    Saturday night will be cold and frosty again with lowest temperatures of -2 or -3 degrees generally and freezing fog will be widespread. It will be cold and frosty on Sunday morning too, but eventually temperatures will reach 4 or 5 degrees during the afternoon. And when the fog clears on Sunday, the weather will be bright and sunny for the few short hours of the day. The continuing presence of an anticyclone close to Ireland will ensure dry weather for the first half of next week at least. But the nights on Monday and Tuesday will be particularly cold again with temperatures dropping down to -5 and -6 degrees in parts of the country. And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 763 ✭✭✭alfa beta


    alfa beta wrote: »
    I've got a feeling that last line of the ME outlook won't be hanging around for long

    well i'll be!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 28 Mac_


    alfa beta wrote: »
    well i'll be!!

    :D:D:D:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 285 ✭✭GavinH


    Mac_ wrote: »
    :D:D:D:rolleyes:

    They either had another look at the charts, or maybe they are monitoring this tread.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    :D

    Well into FI ,

    138930.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 197 ✭✭snowjon


    GavinH wrote: »
    They either had another look at the charts, or maybe they are monitoring this tread.

    Soooo happy with that - it was really misleading - makes so much more sense now :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭Winger_PL


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    gefs showing breakdown on 21/22

    But that's pure FI at this stage isn't it?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    piskins72 wrote: »
    it seems to have been changed and that line taken out of it now :confused:

    Saturday night will be cold and frosty again with lowest temperatures of -2 or -3 degrees generally and freezing fog will be widespread. It will be cold and frosty on Sunday morning too, but eventually temperatures will reach 4 or 5 degrees during the afternoon. And when the fog clears on Sunday, the weather will be bright and sunny for the few short hours of the day. The continuing presence of an anticyclone close to Ireland will ensure dry weather for the first half of next week at least. But the nights on Monday and Tuesday will be particularly cold again with temperatures dropping down to -5 and -6 degrees in parts of the country. And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low.

    They have changed it again now
    "And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low. The forecast for the rest of the week is uncertain but latest indications suggest cold possibly wintry conditions returning especially to northern areas "

    :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 383 ✭✭piskins72


    Pangea wrote: »
    They have changed it again now
    "And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low. The forecast for the rest of the week is uncertain but latest indications suggest cold possibly wintry conditions returning especially to northern areas "

    :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D


    total opposite to what was said initally!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 383 ✭✭piskins72


    I was speaking to a person in the south of the country last nite and speaking about the weather the person said " sure all the cold weather is gone for a while" meaning they were thinking for a good while!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Mac_ wrote: »
    Nice boots!
    Theres boots in that pic?......


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    snowjon wrote: »
    It's weird because it was released at 09.30, according to the website, which means they had access to all the 00z runs which unanimously show a cold northerly plunge for the exact time they predict southerly winds and higher temps :confused:
    That often happens at ME-probably a junior forecaster that was out on the beer last night...

    IF this northerly pans out as currently projected,expect a lot of snow in west munster including cork city! as occasionally heavy shower activity spreads in on nnw winds from the atlantic under the influence of an exceptionally cold feed.
    The snow shadow in this one will be south and East Wicklow,Wexford and waterford...Except when winds go NNE or NE occasionally


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Brenireland


    So is MT'S forecast still on track & will we,as Bastardi said,be in for a huge winter event in the next 2/3 weeks?:confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::eek::eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭Winger_PL


    So is MT'S forecast still on track & will we,as Bastardi said,be in for a huge winter event in the next 2/3 weeks?:confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::eek::eek:

    Yes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,324 ✭✭✭highdef


    My email to Met Eireann was very promptly replied to and I was told that the forecast had been changed, as we have seen. I'm unsure if Met Eireann look at boards but I'd imagine they do.


  • Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭Winger_PL


    highdef wrote: »
    My email to Met Eireann was very promptly replied to and I was told that the forecast had been changed, as we have seen. I'm unsure if Met Eireann look at boards but I'd imagine they do.

    They certainly do access boards, they even have an account and they have posted a few messages in the past. Whether they read the forecast threads and other discussions is another story, I reckon they won't confirm it even if they do.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    Going by the gfs, the north, northwest looks spot-on for some fanatic sea effect snow, the east less so for now anyway, but as we know things could and will change as we get the next few runs,

    But what a run, you lads in the north might want to keep an eye out for icebergs


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,184 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Spindle wrote: »
    There latest outlook has changed to:

    The continuing presence of an anticyclone close to Ireland will ensure dry weather for the first half of next week at least. But the nights on Monday and Tuesday will be particularly cold again with temperatures dropping down to -5 and -6 degrees in parts of the country. And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low.
    I doubt very much if temperatures will get anywhere near -5 on Tue and Wed.
    We'll be under a blanket of cloud as the high stagnates resulting in the dreaded anticyclonic gloom, nearer +5. Wait and see.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    IF those charts come off, most of Ireland would be likely to see some snow. With uppers at 500 hPa nearing -40 and uppers at 850 hPa dipping to around -12/-13 there definitely would be larger disturbances/troughs/lows that could whiten large swathes of land:D

    Never mind the ECM, they bring down a large low pressure in the flow. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭cabot


    Why would they not confirm it if they are already members here?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,912 ✭✭✭HellFireClub


    Just wondering what the abbreviations ECM and also FI stand for???


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    roryc1 wrote: »
    Going by the gfs, the north, northwest looks spot-on for some fanatic sea effect snow, the east less so for now anyway, but as we know things could and will change as we get the next few runs,

    But what a run, you lads in the north might want to keep an eye out for icebergs
    whats sea effect snow? hope thats not rain :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Just wondering what the abbreviations ECM and also FI stand for???

    ECM is actually ECMWF

    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

    FI is fantasy island.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Just wondering what the abbreviations ECM and also FI stand for???

    ECM is one the models that people base there forecast on , not so sure exactly what it stands for .

    FI = Fantasy Island ( A chart that is outside of a reliable time frame of 96Hrs + plus usually)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    Pangea wrote: »
    whats sea effect snow? hope thats not rain :pac:
    Its lake effect snow but when it happens over the sea its called sea effect snow, its what caused most of the snow the east got the last week


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Was talking to my friend from my old course in Ucd doin climate science , he said the lecturer who's a climatologist was saying that we could be seeing some new records set on snowfall by the new year!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,110 ✭✭✭123balltv


    RTE just said they are not expecting snow during the first half of next
    week does that mean there expecting snow during the second half of next week ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 962 ✭✭✭john mayo 10


    what causes sea effect snow?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    123balltv wrote: »
    RTE just said they are not expecting snow during the first half of next
    week does that mean there expecting snow during the second half of next week ?

    No, they just won't commit that far out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    And by rte I guess you mean meteireann?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    what causes sea effect snow?

    This should help
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake-effect_snow


This discussion has been closed.
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