Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

hotwhiskey

Looking at the charts this morning we are looking at serious situation unfolding. I know i know it's we bit far out but the GFS has stuck to it guns over the past number of days, while the ECM got cold feet yesterday and has now come back more or less with the GFS.

At the moment we are looking at even colder temp day and night that what we had over the past two weeks. Snowfall could be on the same level as '82. Some people on here will being opening the bottle of bubbly by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

john mayo 10

thanx for that. very understandable

Mental Mickey

Spindle wrote: »

There latest outlook has changed to:

The continuing presence of an anticyclone close to Ireland will ensure dry weather for the first half of next week at least. But the nights on Monday and Tuesday will be particularly cold again with temperatures dropping down to -5 and -6 degrees in parts of the country. And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low.

FFS. I'm running extremely low on available A/L days to take. I have already lost 3 days a/l(last week), due to the fact that I deemed it too unsafe to go outside my house in that weather(I'm a wheelchair user btw).

Speak Now

123balltv wrote: »

RTE just said they are not expecting snow during the first half of next
week does that mean there expecting snow during the second half of next week ?

The Eagle wanted to ramp at 7.55 on radio 1 this morning but he just bit his tounge and said the models aren't clear after mid-week

Musicman2000

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Looking at the charts this morning we are looking at serious situation unfolding. I know i know it's we bit far out but the GFS has stuck to it guns over the past number of days, while the ECM got cold feet yesterday and has now come back more or less with the GFS.

At the moment we are looking at even colder temp day and night that what we had over the past two weeks. Snowfall could be on the same level as '82. Some people on here will being opening the bottle of bubbly by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

These are extreme conditions, but its a littel bit away yet, and they could become less extreme or pushed back, I think early next week we will have a better idea whats going to happen

hotwhiskey

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Looking at the charts this morning we are looking at serious situation unfolding. I know i know it's we bit far out but the GFS has stuck to it guns over the past number of days, while the ECM got cold feet yesterday and has now come back more or less with the GFS.

At the moment we are looking at even colder temp day and night that what we had over the past two weeks. Snowfall could be on the same level as '82. Some people on here will being opening the bottle of bubbly by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Thats FI and it's the gfs so only an indication of a trend.
It might just end up very cold but very dry as a high pressure cell stays close to Ireland!
In that scenario,we will have record breaing cold but very little snow.
It's impossible to tell yet.

I'd imagine that it will be dry in most areas at least untill next wenesday or beyond.
The thaw will continue strong in Eastern areas with most of the remaining full old snow cover confined to the higher ground by then with lots of the big piles cleared by jcb's staying elsewhere as well as at the sides of fields and roads.
Meaning,the next week is a restbite with little or no disruption in my view so take advantage!

TheMilkyPirate

Looking quite cold but boring for the east so far. We had snow already i know i know but a white christmas would be nice too!

Vizual Pics

baraca wrote: »

Looking quite cold but boring for the east so far. We had snow already i know i know but a white christmas would be nice too!

Its the West and South West's turn next...I'm supposed to be flying to Italy though on the 23rd Dec from Dublin so either way I'm going to have a white Christmas hopefully...:D

Vudgie

Deleted User wrote: »

Thats FI and it's the gfs so only an indication of a trend.
It might just end up very cold but very dry as a high pressure cell stays close to Ireland!
In that scenario,we will have record breaing cold but very little snow.
It's impossible to tell yet.

I'd imagine that it will be dry in most areas at least untill next wenesday or beyond.
The thaw will continue strong in Eastern areas with most of the remaining full old snow cover confined to the higher ground by then with lots of the big piles cleared by jcb's staying elsewhere as well as at the sides of fields and roads.
Meaning,the next week is a restbite with little or no disruption in my view so take advantage!

I think this is a well rounded and balanced post, and thanks for your opinion.

Some of the stuff being put up here today is clear ramping, and while good fun is not really what people come here for.

The above post answers many of the questions that I had as most people autmoatically associate intense cold with definite snow but it is clear that the two aren't mutually exclusive.

DarkJager

This is ridiculous. Can the ice and snow just **** off until November next year again?

Speak Now

DarkJager wrote: »

This is ridiculous. Can the ice and snow just **** off until November next year again?

Unlikely

cabot

DarkJager wrote: »

This is ridiculous. Can the ice and snow just **** off until November next year again?

I would learn some coping strategies if I were you lol

Tom Cruises Left Nut

cabot wrote: »

I would learn some coping strategies if I were you lol

Breathe in, breathe out

TheMilkyPirate

DarkJager wrote: »

This is ridiculous. Can the ice and snow just **** off until November next year again?

Do people not understand what winter is.

hotwhiskey

Vudgie wrote: »

I think this is a well rounded and balanced post, and thanks for your opinion.

Some of the stuff being put up here today is clear ramping, and while good fun is not really what people come here for.

The above post answers many of the questions that I had as most people autmoatically associate intense cold with definite snow but it is clear that the two aren't mutually exclusive.

Ramping not really you say what you see.

Yes the charts are in FI, we will know more clearly on Sunday evening or Monday Morning how this will far out. But still if we do get a down grade by then you are still looking at some nasty weather on the way.

Brenireland

baraca wrote: »

Do people not understand what winter is.

no.explain..

TheMilkyPirate

Brenireland wrote: »

no.explain..

Well if you don't know then your severely uneducated and i've no idea what your doing in a weather forum. But i'll take it that you do know and are just acting the eejit.

Ilyushin76

baraca wrote: »

Do people not understand what winter is.

Agree fully .Its winter so people should expect wintry weather .Most of the posts on this thread are people complaining when it should be about about what could develop next week.

Brenireland

baraca wrote: »

Well if you don't know then your severely uneducated and i've no idea what your doing in a weather forum. But i'll take it that you do know and are just acting the eejit.

Ah I was only joking relax.
Lets all enjoy the weather!

Dilynnio

I actually have gotten quite used to the snow and cold. I think its rather sexy and serene. Bring on more of it. It is much better than the rain!

TheMilkyPirate

Brenireland wrote: »

Ah I was only joking relax.

I know

WolfeIRE

Latest gfs upper air temps for Thursday afternoon. GFS brings forward the start of this cold spell by 12 hrs or so.

Wolfie's gfs there would plaster snow into Ulster and north connaught with scattered snow showers perhaps to the very north of leinster and down the fringe of the west coast.

It would set the irish sea on fire with snow and hail showers and thunder mainly though because of wind direction blasting those into Wales and not Dublin.

Looking at the UKMO ,a model I've more time for and taking in the earlier ecm,I'm expecting most of Ireland to be getting a lot colder especially at night with minima approaching last weeks but on the main I'm expecting a very dry week away from Ulster and north mayo/Sligo/leitrim/Roscommon,that type of area.
Another boring week coming up folks untill at least next weekend.

ninebeanrows

Some outstanding output this evening.

Beginning to wonder if this could be the big winter.

December could be on course to be the coldest month on record in Central England all the way back to the 1700's.

The output this evening suggests we are entering into a synoptic patter that would lock in cold to exceptionally cold conditions for a long period. Kicking off from middle week next week as temperatures begin to struggle to 2-3c once more and nighttime frosts become harsh again after a very brief respite.

The northerly progged for late next week would be one of the most intense blasts from the north for decades.

The an astonishing block to our north feeding in air from the North west as the polar vortex is locked to the east of Ireland and the UK.

Truly mouthwatering and astonishing charts..

Make the most of the next few nights as the cold will be coming back with vengence.

Distribution of snow cannot be pinpointed at this early state.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

Distribution of snow cannot be pinpointed at this early state.

Agreed.
But in this set up if it does actually pan out like that you can guess the more favoured areas in a northerly would be the north and west ,with the irish sea stuff heading into wales for the most part.
Potency cannot really be determined yet either,but the stronger and deep the coldness of the flow,the bigger the area outside the usual spots affected by a flow from that direction will be.
Outside of that generality,theres polar lows and fronts etc and maybe a storm coming in underneath us that would increase the snow chances for those usually in a snow shadow from a northerly or a northwesterly.

Theres also the likelyhood of winds veering nne or ne at anytime with variations in those synoptics within the bigger very cold picture.
A sw appearing to the south somewhere for instance.

And of course with the ever increasing cold to our NE,theres the potential for an eventual win win of an easterly flow developing.
An Easterly or a NE is in my opinion always the best and has given us the 2 weeks of snow cover we now have over a large part of the country.

Brenireland

Weathercheck wrote: »

Some outstanding output this evening.

Beginning to wonder if this could be the big winter.

December could be on course to be the coldest month on record in Central England all the way back to the 1700's.

The output this evening suggests we are entering into a synoptic patter that would lock in cold to exceptionally cold conditions for a long period. Kicking off from middle week next week as temperatures begin to struggle to 2-3c once more and nighttime frosts become harsh again after a very brief respite.

The northerly progged for late next week would be one of the most intense blasts from the north for decades.

The an astonishing block to our north feeding in air from the North west as the polar vortex is locked to the east of Ireland and the UK.

Truly mouthwatering and astonishing charts..

Make the most of the next few nights as the cold will be coming back with vengence.

Distribution of snow cannot be pinpointed at this early state.

bad weather so.

WolfeIRE

The above animated chart illustrates the upper air temperatures (850hPAs) over Ireland and the UK between Monday 13 December 2010 and Wednesday 22 December 2010.


The animation is based on the latest output from the ECM weather model. Air temperatures late next week are expected to be close to freezing while there will be severe nighttime frosts.



850 hPa level is roughly at 1.5 km, usually above the atmospheric boundary layer. That means there is no diurnal temperature variation, and the underlying surface such as cool sea doesn't affect it's temperature. That is why 850 hpa temperature is used to distinguish air masses and thus to locate cold and warm fronts. MORE

nacho libre

if there is -40 upper air and the northerly is potent, a lot of the country will end up seeing snow eventually, even areas that usually have a snowshield from a northerly. those charts if they were to stay as shown, are ripe for a polar low too. the great thing about a polar low is it could lead to a heavy fall of snow as far south as Bantry

snow ghost

:eek: THE END OF DAYS IS UPON US :eek:

Brenireland

snow ghost wrote: »

:eek: THE END OF DAYS IS UPON US :eek:

We are Done FOR