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Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe
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Saturday night will be cold and frosty again with lowest temperatures of -2 or -3 degrees generally and freezing fog will be widespread. It will be cold and frosty on Sunday morning too, but eventually temperatures will reach 4 or 5 degrees during the afternoon. And when the fog clears on Sunday, the weather will be bright and sunny for the few short hours of the day. The continuing presence of an anticyclone close to Ireland will ensure dry weather for the first half of next week at least. But the nights on Monday and Tuesday will be particularly cold again with temperatures dropping down to -5 and -6 degrees in parts of the country. And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low. After midweek there are signs that the winds will turn southerly in direction and this will end the severe night frosts and bring higher daytime temperatures.
Is this not contradictory to what the models show us for next week?
Thisnwas taken from ME.
Yes - I just read the ME forecast and nearly fell off my chair - surely this is just completely wrong, given all the latest output for the last few days, EXCEPT last night's ECM. Surely this long-range forecast is based on more than just one off-kilter run. This morning, ECM is back to showing a northerly plunge at the end of next week with possible snow and severe frosts for Ireland. IMO, this is a very misleading forecast for ME to produce - shockingly poor effort
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You want -10Deleted User wrote: »Remember,you need colder 850mb temps with atlantic polar maratime air to support sealevel coastal snow than you do with continental easterly air.
You also need lower dam thicknesses to compensate for the higher humidity brought about by the long sea track.
Belmullet and mallin head would have rain with -8 850 air probably [thats the temp of the air at 5000 ft asl in the charts maq posted above folks]
When I see -10 at that height or -11c or lower,then theres confidence.
It's a different strory for Scotland as theres less modification and for example places like Aberdeen will have the air dry out a bit humidity wise with a partial land track at times.
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Yes - I just read the ME forecast and nearly fell off my chair - surely this is just completely wrong, given all the latest output for the last few days, EXCEPT last night's ECM. Surely this long-range forecast is based on more than just one off-kilter run. This morning, ECM is back to showing a northerly plunge at the end of next week with possible snow and severe frosts for Ireland. IMO, this is a very misleading forecast for ME to produce - shockingly poor effort
Ye thought in was seeing things. I know there was one ECM model that went wayward yesterday, but tis mornings one all line up again.0 -
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It's weird because it was released at 09.30, according to the website, which means they had access to all the 00z runs which unanimously show a cold northerly plunge for the exact time they predict southerly winds and higher tempsI've got a feeling that last line of the ME outlook won't be hanging around for long - their specific reference to southerly winds at the end of next week seems odd to say the least. 0 -
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It's weird because it was released at 09.30, according to the website, which means they had access to all the 00z runs which unanimously show a cold northerly plunge for the exact time they predict southerly winds and higher temps
In case anyone hasn't seen the Met Eireann forecast, this is what they predict we can expect next week:
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/After midweek there are signs that the winds will turn southerly in direction and this will end the severe night frosts and bring higher daytime temperatures. 0 -
I'm also totally lost at the Met E reference to southerly winds. Looking at the 06z GFS I've never seen such bone chilling, possibly record breaking potential.It's weird because it was released at 09.30, according to the website, which means they had access to all the 00z runs which unanimously show a cold northerly plunge for the exact time they predict southerly winds and higher temps0 -
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snow ghost wrote: »I think you'll find that the Brian Lenihan and Mother Nature have little in common confab. :rolleyes:
As for enthusiasm for cold weather, here's one very good reason:
'THE NUMBER OF DEATHS DUE TO COLD WEATHER FELL LAST YEAR'
http://www.manchesterwired.co.uk/news.php/110215-The-number-of-deaths-due-to-cold-weather-fell-last-year
And here's another:
You won't get that in the rain.
Wisdom^^
as great as it was to read M.T'S post, i fear it won't be as exciting as all that. Nothing would give me greater pleasure if i am wrong, though.0 -
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In case anyone hasn't seen the Met Eireann forecast, this is what they predict we can expect next week:
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/
i haven't checked the charts, but maybe they forsee that happening for a day or so around midweek? it maybe they are reluctant to deliver what they, and most people will perceive as bad news, until they really have to. remember they got caught out last year towards the end of the big freeze, which led to people panic buying, only for the east to just have rain and sleet.0 -
Brenireland wrote: »Nothing to worry about here now that the Thaw has set in @ this stage,we can safely say the harshest period of our winter weather has passed.:cool:
Seems I might be right
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In case anyone hasn't seen the Met Eireann forecast, this is what they predict we can expect next week:
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/
There latest outlook has changed to:
The continuing presence of an anticyclone close to Ireland will ensure dry weather for the first half of next week at least. But the nights on Monday and Tuesday will be particularly cold again with temperatures dropping down to -5 and -6 degrees in parts of the country. And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low.0 -
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it seems to have been changed and that line taken out of it now
Saturday night will be cold and frosty again with lowest temperatures of -2 or -3 degrees generally and freezing fog will be widespread. It will be cold and frosty on Sunday morning too, but eventually temperatures will reach 4 or 5 degrees during the afternoon. And when the fog clears on Sunday, the weather will be bright and sunny for the few short hours of the day. The continuing presence of an anticyclone close to Ireland will ensure dry weather for the first half of next week at least. But the nights on Monday and Tuesday will be particularly cold again with temperatures dropping down to -5 and -6 degrees in parts of the country. And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low.0
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This discussion has been closed.
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