Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

Brenireland

redsunset wrote: »

If the colder air catch up with that front on thursday we would be seeing a wintry mix.

This chart won't play out exactly like this so just an idea.

very nice,I like.

Min

Wouldn't want an Icelandic volcano blowing up in that airflow, might get a funny coloured snow.

coolaboola

http://www.xkcd.com/831/

maquiladora

The end of the week/weekend looks very interesting. Its going to be fun to see what the models will show over the next couple of days as they chop and change in this rather unusual setup. Potential is clearly there for another period of very low temps and bouts of snow in places. I wouldn't have confidence in saying anything more detailed than that at this stage!

Pangea

On a seperate not is it possible for us to get Ice Storms ever??
My friend in canada sent me this link crazy stuff!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_ice_storm_of_1998

samboshy

im on for another serious blast of snow tbh guys, maybe i'll miss my exams :eek:

Min

maquiladora wrote: »

The end of the week/weekend looks very interesting. Its going to be fun to see what the models will show over the next couple of days as they chop and change in this rather unusual setup. Potential is clearly there for another period of very low temps and bouts of snow in places. I wouldn't have confidence in saying anything more detailed than that at this stage!

Met Eireann didn't want to commit beyond Friday apart from it being wintry.

BEASTERLY

The 06z ECM is a disaster imo. Just another everyday northerly toppler.

But the GFS 06z on the other hand:D. The northerly only lasts a day then the low sinks south and gives the east a blast, and it also shows M.T's winter storms. An epic run altogether

Lets all just hope the ECM is WRONG!

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The 06z ECM is a disaster imo. Just another everyday northerly toppler.

But the GFS 06z on the other hand:D. The northerly only lasts a day then the low sinks south and gives the east a blast, and it also shows M.T's winter storms. An epic run altogether

Lets all just hope the ECM is WRONG!

I guess you mean the 0Z ECM? I wouldn't be too worried about the details of what the charts are showing beyond 120 hours, there will probably be very big changes by the time we get there & keep in mind that the ECM has been choping/changing a lot over the last few runs.

nacho libre

Brenireland wrote: »

their is a possibility do that this could go all pear shaped & result in RAIN,which could see an invasion from the happy thawers...:mad:

well it looks like there will be some sort of cold spell, but it could easily turn out not to be as severe as suggested. if you still see talk of a severe outbreak not seen in decades on Wednesday then it maybe time to get excited. one thing we can be certain of is the sniping and bickering over on neweather will be at an all time high this week as the models change from run to run.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

I guess you mean the 0Z ECM? I wouldn't be too worried about the details of what the charts are showing beyond 120 hours, there will probably be very big changes by the time we get there & keep in mind that the ECM has been choping/changing a lot over the last few runs.

Oh yeah sorry, getting me times mixed up now.

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

The end of the week/weekend looks very interesting. Its going to be fun to see what the models will show over the next couple of days as they chop and change in this rather unusual setup. Potential is clearly there for another period of very low temps and bouts of snow in places. I wouldn't have confidence in saying anything more detailed than that at this stage!

This time 3 weeks ago we were at the same stage of model watching and trying to figure out whats going to happen. The time frame is very similar, even temps today are around the 8c mark which they were back then. For me this is the most interesting time in the Weather Forum as we have the regular guys who know there stuff in here and its very informative.
From my own point of view looking at the charts i think the South Easts best chance of snow will always come from streamers off the Irish Sea. So its not until next Saturday that those conditions are due to arrive. Its going to be a fun week ahead in here and in some ways actually better than when the event happens.

roryc1

nacho libre wrote: »

well it looks like there will be some sort of cold spell, but it could easily turn out not to be as severe as suggested. if you still see talk of a severe outbreak not seen in decades on Wednesday then it maybe time to get excited. one thing we can be certain of is the sniping and bickering over on neweather will be at an all time high this week as the models change from run to run.

Its really quite funny over on netweather, buy the way i see Owenc is there to

Pangea

Just seen the Country tracks forecast, shows the beast from the North coming on thursday while tempertures plummet, also he said theres a risk of snow disruption on friday, showed snow coming over NI and Scotland.

Su Campu

The real snow risk could be next Sunday as the low to our south nudges north over cold air.

Interesting that the 06Z GFS shows a 1080hPa High forming over the Greenland icepack late on Tuesday, whereas the ECMWF has only 1066-ish. This discrepancy will have a possible bearing on the strength and bearing of the low forming in the Greenland Sea. There is a lot that needs to fall into place before the details of this become clear, so expect some toing and froing over the next few days.

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

Just seen the Country tracks forecast, shows the beast from the North coming on thursday while tempertures plummet, also he said theres a risk of snow disruption on friday, showed snow coming over NI and Scotland.

Saw that.
They also had the snow right down the west coast of Ireland and into kerry and west cork by Friday.
Nothing in Eastern Ireland yet by the irish sea plastered with snow which doesn't touch the east coast due to wind direction.
It bombards the isle of man and wales instead.Thats what I expect to happen and have said so.
But as it digs in,if it digs in,the showers into ulster will penetrate further south,they'd have to.
If the wind veers northwesterly,then you get snowmageddon in munster especially clare,limerick,Kerry and Cork and Tipperary.
Waterford would be sheltered as would wexford and wicklow.
The midlands would get the spill over from everyone elses showers though as would Dublin.
Remember Dublin streamers powered through as far as the west in an Easterly.They can do the same when very strong coming the other way.
What happens after saturday will chop and change depending on features etc.

Note what I've said above doesn't mean it will happen,it's what potentially can happen.

The timing of this does not suit this weeks country tracks.
Next Sundays will be much more informative

popflop

Metoffice.uk issued a "be aware" warning for Thursday 16th of December for Heavy Snow.

"There is an increasing risk of both ice and snow through the day as very cold air spreads southwards across all areas by the end of the day."

nacho libre

Su Campu wrote: »

The real snow risk could be next Sunday as the low to our south nudges north over cold air.

.

do you mean a more widespread risk of snow by that stage? As Ulster, Connacht, and parts of Munster should be plastered before that if the northerly is as potent as suggested

leahyl

Lads I am reading all this and you have me sucked in again! I'm trying not to burst with excitement! I refuse to get oberexcited until I see the white stuff pelting down on Christmas Eve!!!!:D

fatherted1969

I've stopped looking at the weather forecast on tv for the last 2 weeks. I'm glued to these threads.

Kippure

Heads up. Farming Weather Forecast 5 minutes RTE1

Pangea

Very bland forecast, evelyn last week or week before went into far more detail.
Unfortunately I was more concentrated on whether your one was able to finish a sentence without gasping for a saliva swallow than the weather itself.

Kippure

Pointless.

sunbabe08

finished college, bring it on!!!!! white christmas

leahyl

sunbabe08 wrote: »

finished college, bring it on!!!!! white christmas

did you have exams? Hope they went well now bring on snowmageddon!:D

Kippure

Kippure wrote: »

Pointless.

Agreed but true to form.
They did not want to commit to detail and never do for the period at the tail end of their weather "for the week"
They will be forced to be more detailed with next weeks one...if they make it into work that is..:D

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

Very bland forecast, evelyn last week or week before went into far more detail.
Unfortunately I was more concentrated on whether your one was able to finish a sentence without gasping for a saliva swallow than the weather itself.

In fairness things aren't going to get interesting until from Thursday onwards, and that is still far enough away for there to be a fair degree of uncertainty even at the best of times. The uncertainty increases even further because its quite unusual to have a polar 'vortex' (or hurricane as MT is calling it) coming down this far south like some of the models are showing so its hard to know how well the models are handling this kind of setup at this range.

derekon

maquiladora wrote: »

In fairness things aren't going to get interesting until from Thursday onwards, and that is still far enough away for there to be a fair degree of uncertainty even at the best of times. The uncertainty increases even further because its quite unusual to have a polar 'vortex' (or hurricane as MT is calling it) coming down this far south like some of the models are showing so its hard to know how well the models are handling this kind of setup at this range.

Totally agree.

Met Eireann have a public responsibility in terms of weather forecasting and should not unduly worry the wider public

ME is perfectly aware of the upcoming cold spell however I am sure their forecasts will reflect the seriousness of the upcoming artic blast as the week develops

Min

Pangea wrote: »

Very bland forecast, evelyn last week or week before went into far more detail.
Unfortunately I was more concentrated on whether your one was able to finish a sentence without gasping for a saliva swallow than the weather itself.

I think that is due to uncertainty about what will exactly happen during the cold spell. Met Eireann have been warning there is this uncertainty hanging over what will happen after Friday - so I don't think they want to be definite when the weather models are not.

edit to say I should read other posts before replying with a similar reply.

Poly

Don't worry folks Noel Dempsey will be having daily meetings with that eejit from the NRA, that's if it doesn't interfere with his winter sun holiday of course.